INSIGHTS

additional HarvardX or MITx course in the

P OLICY FORUM following year. Second-year retention rates
have declined with every cohort, from 38% in
SCIENCE EDUCATION the first cohort to 7% in the 2016–2017 cohort.
A growing global demand for ongoing learn-

The MOOC pivot ing from MOOCs that might have maintained
a blue ocean strategy never materialized.
It was clear from the first few years of
What happened to disruptive transformation of education? MOOC research that MOOCs dispropor-
tionately drew their learners from affluent
countries and neighborhoods, and markers
By Justin Reich and We analyzed data from all MOOCs taught of socioeconomic status were correlated
José A. Ruipérez-Valiente on edX by its founding partners MIT and with greater persistence and certification
Harvard University, from the start of the (6, 7). In 2012 to 2013, 80% of learners came

W
hen massive open online courses initiative in October 2012 to May 2018 (orga- from countries rated with high or very high
(MOOCs) first captured global at- nized into annual cohorts starting in June). United Nations Human Development Index
tention in 2012, advocates imag- The dataset includes 565 course iterations ratings (8). That proportion grew slightly
ined a disruptive transformation from 261 different courses, with a combined through 2015 to 2016, so that the majority
in postsecondary education. 12.67 million course registrations from 5.63 of new registrations and certifications came
Video lectures from the world’s million learners. Data from other edX part- from the world’s most affluent countries

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best professors could be broadcast to the ners or MOOC providers might reveal differ- (see the second figure). Rather than creat-
farthest reaches of the networked world, ent dynamics, but we have a detailed view of ing new pathways at the margins of global
and students could demonstrate proficiency two of the largest course providers. higher education, MOOCs are primarily a
using innovative computer-graded assess- MOOC researchers realized early on that complementary asset for learners within
ments, even in places with limited access to most MOOC registrants leave soon after en- existing systems.
traditional education. But after promising a rollment. Of those who register for a course, Last, MOOCs’ low completion rate has
reordering of higher education, we see the 52% never enter the courseware (table S4), barely budged (fig. S1), despite 6 years of in-
field instead coalescing around a different, and attrition typically remains high in the vestment in course development and learn-
much older business model: helping uni- first 2 weeks of a course (2). We see similar ing research (9). A strategy that depends on
versities outsource their online master’s patterns when looking at engagement over bringing new learners into higher educa-
degrees for professionals (1). To better un- multiple years. New individual learners in- tion cannot succeed if educational institu-
derstand the reasons for this shift, we high- creased from 2012 to 2016 but have declined tions cannot support learners in converting
light three patterns emerging from data on since (see the first figure). The largest initial their time and financial investment into
MOOCs provided by Harvard University cohort was in 2015 to 2016, but only 12% of completing a course to earn a credential
and Massachusetts Institute of Technology those 1.1 million individual learners took an with labor market value.
(MIT) via the edX platform: The vast ma-
jority of MOOC learners never return after
their first year, the growth in MOOC par- Consistently low retention and
ticipation has been concentrated almost en-
tirely in the world’s most affluent countries,
recent enrollment declines 1,108,858
Year-to-year enrollment of learner cohorts defined
and the bane of MOOCs—low completion
by their year of first activity. Parenthesis shows
rates (2)—has not improved over 6 years. percentage retained from initial cohort size. Registration year
MOOC providers explored several poten- 2012–2013
tial revenue models in their first years, but 2013–2014
900,000
selling certificates of completion was the 2014–2015
most prominent. In early public talks (3, 2015–2016
4), Coursera cofounder Daphne Koller de- 755,800 2016–2017
scribed their business model as a blue ccean 2017–2018
strategy (5): Rather than focus on existing
Unique learners

630,992
consumers of higher education, they would
sustain a new global service by converting 600,000
nonconsumers of higher education—espe- 531,213
499,736
cially in places with limited access—into on-
line learners at the world’s best universities.
MOOC providers would make learning ma-
terials freely and widely available and would
earn revenue from a portion of learners who 300,000
purchased the opportunity to earn verified 192,255 20,5814 (27%)
GRAPHIC: N. CARY/SCIENCE

certificates and credentials. 145,499 (23%) 92,977 (8%)

Data on enrollment, intention, and com- 129,562 (12%) 53,030 (10%)
72,093 (38%) 146,713 (19%) 76,780 (10%) 51,996 (7%)
pletion show the challenges with this model. 46,494 (24%)
36,089 (19%) 60,971 (10%) 38,530 (6%)
21,690 (11%) 15,059 (8%)
0
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Email: [email protected] 2012–2013 2013–2014 2014–2015 2015–2016 2016–2017 2017–2018

130 11 JANUARY 2019 • VOL 363 ISSUE 6423 sciencemag.org SCIENCE

Published by AAAS
 Disproportionate participation from affluent countries effective online learning for diverse popu-
Number of enrollments and certifications per year divided into quartiles based on the UN Human lations costs about the same to provide as
Development Index (HDI) rating of each registrant’s home country. highly effective residential learning (12).
MOOCs will not transform higher edu-
Number of enrollments Number of certifcations cation and probably will not disappear
entirely. Rather, they will provide new sup-
ports for specific niches within already
existing education systems, primarily sup-
1,500,000 porting already educated learners. The
40,000 6-year saga of MOOCs provides a caution-
ary tale for education policy-makers facing
1,000,000 whatever will be the next promoted inno-
vation in education technology, be it artifi-
cial intelligence or virtual reality or some
20,000
unexpected new entrant. New education
500,000
technologies are rarely disruptive but in-
stead are domesticated by existing cultures
and systems. Dramatic expansion of educa-
0 0 tional opportunities to underserved popula-
2012– 2013– 2014– 2015– 2016– 2017– 2012– 2013– 2014– 2015– 2016– 2017– tions will require political movements that
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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change the focus, funding, and purpose of
HDI category Very high High Medium Low higher education; they will not be achieved
through new technologies alone. j
In light of these trends, financial sustain- on investment, such as data science, com-
RE FERENCES AND NOTES
ability for MOOC platforms may depend on puter programming, business, and related
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providers, who offer services that include up recruiting the kinds of students who have
marketing and recruitment, admissions, historically been poorly served by online de- ACKNOWL EDGMENTS
online course management, curriculum gree programs, student support programs Funding: No specific funding sources supported this com-
design, and course instruction and assess- will be vital. Some recent research has ex- mentary. Author contributions: J.R. conceptualized the paper,
wrote the original draft, and revised the paper. J.A.R.-V. concep-
ment. School-as-a-service providers typi- plored online and text-message–based in- tualized the paper, conducted data analysis, and revised the
cally earn revenue by taking a fraction of terventions for supporting these students, paper. Competing interests: Authors declare no competing
GRAPHIC: N. CARY/SCIENCE

the tuition of each student enrolled. but most research suggests that human con- interests. Data and materials availability: Data are described
in the supplementary materials.
MOOC providers are reorienting to com- nections through advisers, tutors, and peer
pete directly with these companies in one groups provide the most important student SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIA LS
market segment: professional master’s de- supports (14). These human supports will www.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/130/suppl/DC1
grees, credentialed by near-top universi- push against lower tuition costs. MOOC-
ties, in fields with well-established return based degree providers may find that highly 10.1126/science.aav7958

SCIENCE sciencemag.org 11 JANUARY 2019 • VOL 363 ISSUE 6423 131

Published by AAAS
The MOOC pivot
Justin Reich and José A. Ruipérez-Valiente

Science 363 (6423), 130-131.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7958

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ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/130

SUPPLEMENTARY http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2019/01/09/363.6423.130.DC1
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REFERENCES This article cites 7 articles, 3 of which you can access for free
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