American Journal of Educational Research, 2015, Vol. 3, No.

4, 535-540
Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/education/3/4/21
© Science and Education Publishing
DOI:10.12691/education-3-4-21

Probability Concepts in Primary School

Helen Tsakiridou*, Eleni Vavyla

Department of Primary Education, University of Western Macedonia, Florina, Greece

*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Received March 24, 2015; Revised April 05, 2015; Accepted April 12, 2015
Abstract In recent years, many countries have tried to incorporate the probability concepts into the curriculum of
primary school. The researchers disagree as to what the age of children dealing with probability contents should be.
The aim of this study was to investigate the grade of understanding of the probability concepts in primary school
students depending on their age and their gender. 404 pupils of the second to the sixth grade of elementary school
participated in the study. It has been concluded that the majority of students was able to recognize different events
and categorize them depending on their likelihood. The major difference in their abilities was noticed between the
children of the second grade and those of the third grade whereas it has been experienced that girls performed better
in all the tasks and in all the grades except for the fourth grade in which boys present a slightly better score.
Keywords: teaching probabilities, primary school, probability concepts, probability tasks
Cite This Article: Helen Tsakiridou, and Eleni Vavyla, “Probability Concepts in Primary School.” American
Journal of Educational Research, vol. 3, no. 4 (2015): 535-540. doi: 10.12691/education-3-4-21.

mathematics classroom, but also in biological, economic,

meteorological, political and social activities (games and
1. Introduction sports) settings.
As evident, teaching contents in probability have
Among the new development and trends in numerous advantages, which other mathematical
mathematics education internationally at primary level, is disciplines lack. Through dealing with the mentioned
the introduction of probability. Nowadays, there is a need contents children learn to accept the fact that also negative
to work on the Probability Theory because we are obliged situations can be encountered, which are not possible to be
to make predictions and to take decisions under uncertain precisely predicted. The only thing to be done is to
situations having to evaluate at the same time a big critically interpret all the possibilities and choose the one
amount of information. Researchers from many countries which is most likely to happen. In this way children gather
(like Farnworth, 1991; Fischbein & Schnarch, 1997; experiences for real life situations, in which it is necessary
Freudenthal, 1973; Gardner, 1989; Jones, 1995; Koshy, to decide on the best option out of many on a daily basis.
Ernest & Casey, 1999; Shaughnessy, 1992; Sobel & At the same time children have to accept the fact that
Maletsky, 1988), notice that probability is very important some events are impossible to happen. So, it is necessary
branch in mathematics education because: to act deliberately and solve the problem, whereby one
• it provides opportunities for students to engage in should make use of his mode of thinking, different from
interesting and purposeful learning activities, the one applied at learning other mathematical disciplines.
• it is easily understood by students that are in different (HodnikCadez & Skrbe, 2011).
ages and have different capabilities as well as There was very intensive research conducted into the
• wherever it has been taught, the results were positive establishment of understanding the probability contents of
and enhanced the mathematical thinking the early school children in the 70-ies and 80-ies of the
(Skoumpourdi, 2004). last century. These research works, which shall be
According to Fischbein (1984) the reason to introduce presented in detail in continuation, were the key starting
probability are “dealing” with uncertain situations, points of our research. It should be emphasized that the
predicting, deciding among different probabilities (critical subject matter of understanding the probability contents
implementation), problem solving (deliberate action- with the youngest population is still topical, as it also
taking) and developing the thinking ability different from being delved into nowadays. Let us shortly mention some
the deterministic one. such research works: Gelman and Glickman (2000)
Gal (2005), Franklin et al (2005) and Jones (2005) state researched the importance of the demonstration and
that the reasons for including probability in schools are concrete experience with teaching probability contents and
related to the usefulness of probability for daily life, its established that children better understood more difficult
instrumental role in other disciplines, the need for a basic concepts if they actively participated in the corresponding
stochastic knowledge in many professions, and the demonstrations. Mills (2007) delved into the attitudes of
important role of probability reasoning in decision making. teachers towards probability contents establishing their
Students will meet randomness not only in the positive attitude to the statistics and probability contents,
536 American Journal of Educational Research

and their wish to be offered the possibility of suitable possibility at lessons (Gurbuz et al. 2010). In the research,
additional training. Ashline and Frantz (2009) dealt with in which 50 children participated, it was established that
the connection between proportionality and probability children who were provided with the teaching approach
contents, while Click (2010) was engaged in probability based on the discussion between pupils and teachers
games played at lessons. Van Dooren et al. (2003) was performed better than those children who were provided
interested in pupils’ misconceptions pertaining to the with lecturing lessons only (Gurbuz et al, 2010). Also
probability contents. Andrew (2009) stresses the importance of concrete
As the most absorbing discussion on the understanding experience, as he believes that pupils better understand
of the probability contents was conducted a long time ago probability contents if they perform experiments related to
among the scientists, such as, e.g. Piaget, Inhelder, probability in advance. Thus, it is important that pupils
Fischbein, Davies and others, we shall focus more gain experience also by drawing out, thus trying to
precisely on their findings, and on some conclusions of determine the more likely event. Concepts in probability
the most recent research in this field, which are topical for can be more readily understood if pupils are first exposed
our research. The opinions of various researchers about to probability via experiment. Performing probability
the abilities of children with regard to solving probability experiments encourages pupils to develop understandings
tasks differ a lot. Piaget as well as Inhelder (1951) state of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to
that a child in a concrete-operational period is neither able merely computing answers based on formulae (Andrew,
to differentiate between certain and random predictions 2009). Andrew (2009) further states that pupils who have
nor formulate predictions, taking into account his gained concrete experience in probability develop their
experiences from previous similar situations. In their understanding on this basis and wish to define the starting
opinions a child first encounters the concept of probability points to calculate probability of certain events
at the level of his concrete operations, at which time he (HodnikCadez & Skrbe, 2011).
starts to differentiate between a certain and a possible Apart from researchers, many constitutions, like
event (Piaget, Inhelder, 1951; Goldberg, 1966) They also Unesco (1972) and Ceeb (1958), have recognized the
note that the systematic understanding of probability starts important role that probability plays in our society and
not earlier than between the ages of 9 and 12 years and they suggest to include them in the primary school’s
even during that period children solve problems intuitively, curriculum.
and not on the basis of formal reasoning. Probability was introduced to the academic lesson
Many researchers contradicted their findings on series in the western world as a part of the “new
abilities of children regarding their perception of the mathematics” changes in the 1960s. They are one of the
probability contents and argued the converse, among them few things that have been preserved in the last forty years.
Fischbein et al. (1984) and also Davies (1965) and Yost et But only in the late 1970s did the educational importance
al (1962) criticized Piaget’s research mainly because it of probability in the primary and junior high school
was based on a child’s verbal abilities; they developed become apparent. This was due to the fact that until that
“the decision making method”, which was not based on time the grounds of their introduction was based more on
verbal abilities; using it children decide between two practical and academic reasons rather than on some
boxes (children draw out of the very bow, from which educational belief having to do with their importance as a
they believe to extract the chip of the desired color), but part of the overall education. At exactly the same period
they do not need to use the expression “most probable”, (1975) when the book written by Piaget & Inhelder was
whereas in Piaget’s research the box contained chips of translated into English, Fischbein (1975) published his
two colors and children had to choose the color, which significant work on intuition and probability that is based
was more probable to be extracted (Yost et al., 1962). on research made over many years. Thus, at about 1975
Fischbein and his numerous colleagues also elaborated probability teaching and learning began to interest the
on teaching and learning the probability concepts, thereby researchers (Truran, 2001).
concluding that it was possible to teach probability The study of probability, in the 1970s, became initially
without any major efforts, which had a positive influence an object of teaching in junior high schools, while later on
on the child’s prejudices and misconceptions about the it was also introduced in the fifth and sixth grade of the
sequence of events and uncertain situations (Fischbein, primary school. However, since the 1990s, probability
Gazit, 1984; Fischbein, Pampu, Manzat, 1970). Among seem to hold an integrated part in the mathematics
other things he found out that under certain conditions curriculum from even the smaller grades in primary
learning of probability concepts may have a negative schools internationally.
impact (children taught probability topics performed Recent curriculum recommendations of the USA and
worse at some tasks compared to those children who were Canada (NCTM, 2000), England (DfEE - Department for
not presented with these topics); nevertheless, Fischbein Education and Employment, 2001), Cyprus (CIE, 1997)
believes it would be possible to avoid this by presenting and Greece (1987 and 1998) have recognized the
children with tasks including relationships calculations importance of having all students develop an awareness of
and probability estimations (Fischbein, Gazit, 1984). probability constructs and applications. Specifically, they
Lately also Gurbuz et al. (2010) dealt with probability mention that the students should understand and apply
teaching and learning. They were trying to establish the basic concepts of probability using the property
effectiveness of the teaching approach based on pupils’ vocabulary for them depending of course, their age.
active participation, whereby pupils were making Because of this emphasis on probability in the school
numerous experiments pertaining to probability, and were curriculum, there has been considerable research into
discussing their findings among themselves in the follow- student’s probabilistic thinking. The current tendency
up. In the control group the pupils were deprived of this even for primary school level is towards a data-orientated
 American Journal of Educational Research 537

teaching of probability, where students are expected to explained and the questions were related with how
perform experiments or simulations, formulate questions possible some events were.
or predictions, collect and analyze data from these In the sixth and the seventh task, students had to choose
experiments, propose and justify conclusions and between two boxes, the one of which it was more possible
predictions that are based on data (Carmen & Carmen, to extract a white or a black ball -or for the younger grades,
2012). the box of which they could extract more times a white or
Based on the views that distinguished scientists a black ball. Of course, in all the questions, the number of
maintain and the suggestions that a number of organisms the white and black balls was different.
have made, it becomes apparent that the introduction of
probability in primary education is necessary as well as 2.3. Data Collection
feasible. Of course, an important condition for the
introduction of the probability concepts in primary school Data was collected by the Test which is used. The
is the use of the appropriate probabilistic expressions and instructions for the students were uniform but because of
the suitable vocabulary for the different age groups of the early age of the students of the second grade, some
children (Skoumpourdi & Kalavassis, 2003). extra instructions were given, especially in the part of the
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the understanding of the questions and where exactly they had
level of understanding the probability concepts in primary to put their answer.
school students and to establish any potential statistically All the pupils were tested in their classrooms during
significant differences among different age groups of their lesson. The time which they were allowed to perform
children and between genders at solving individual tasks. their tasks was 20 minutes and only the students of the
second grade surpassed their time.

2. Method 3. Results
2.1. Participants The results of children of different age groups at
The sample to establish the ability of children to solve solving the tasks of the Test are presented below.
probability tasks was composed of 404 children of three All the tasks relating to the children’s differentiating
elementary schools in the city of Florina in Greece. The among certain, possible and impossible events were
children participating in the research were in the age correctly solved by more than half of the respondents,
group of 7-11 years old. Thus, 77 were second grade which is well evident from Figure 1. In addition, many of
students, 81 were in the third grade, 83 were fourth grade the tasks were correctly solved by more than the 75% of
students, 81 were in the fifth grade and 82 were in the the students of all the grades.
sixth grade. Also, the proportion of participants was In the first task, we observe that the lowest score
almost equal regarding gender, as 52.2% of the children belongs to younger participants (75.1%) and as the age
were boys. The greatest deviation between the genders grows, the score is getting higher as well. Students of the
was with the second grade students (58.4%, 41.6%) in third grade obtained 85.2% and children of the fourth
favor of the boys. grade have a better score (95.2%) than the kids of the fifth
grade (92.1%) and the kids of the sixth grade (94.6%). A
2.2. Instruments statistically significant difference is observed in this task
between the grades (F4, 399 = 24.907, p < 0.001)
In order to establish the ability of children to solve according to the technique of One Way ANOVA which
probability tasks, a Test was used which comprised 7 was used in order to examine possible differences among
tasks. In the majority of these tasks, it was required to the score of the five grades of the elementary school.
circle the solution. In the third and the fourth task children In the second task, children of the second grade obtain
were supposed to continue the sentence and in the sixth the lowest score (78.7%) and they are followed by the
task, a justification of both answers was required. students of the third grade (90.6%). The highest score
Objectivity was achieved through provision of standard belongs to the sixth grade students (97.1%). Students of
instructions and anonymity. the fourth grade (94%) performed better than children of
In the first two tasks of the test, children should the fifth grade (93.6%). A statistically significant
differentiate among certain, possible and impossible difference is experienced in this task (F4, 399 = 19.295, p
events and compare various probabilities of events at the < 0.001) as well.
level of their graphic presentation. The tasks were In the third task, children of the fourth grade made it
different for younger children due to their better (82.5%) whereas some small differences are
misunderstanding of the meaning of “Certain”, “Possible” observed among the third, the fourth, the fifth and the
and “Impossible”. Thus, concepts as “Always”, sixth grade as the statistically significant difference is
“Sometimes” and “Never” were used in the second, the observed to a lesser extent (F4, 399 = 3.025, p = 0.018 <
third and the fourth grade of primary school. 0.05).
In the third and the fourth task, students had to focus on In the fourth task, students of the fourth grade (97%)
the event which is more likely to happen. In the younger made it better than the children of the fifth grade (89.5%)
grades, phrases such as “it is more possible” or “there are and the children of the sixth grade (93.9%). Second grade
more possibilities” were replaced with the phrases “it is students (76.6%) and third grade students (85.8%) have
more certain” or “it will happen more times”. the worst score. According to the technique of One Way
In the fifth task, students were required to circle the ANOVA, a statistically significant difference is observed
correct answer, while three different situations had been (F4, 399 = 6.077, p < 0.001).
538 American Journal of Educational Research

In the fifth task, a great deviation between the second p < 0.001). Specifically, based on the post hoc LSD test
and the sixth grade is observed, as students of the second (0.05 level) there are statistically significant differences in
grade obtain the lowest score (65.5%) and the students of the final score among the five grades. The second and the
the sixth grade have the highest score (92.9%). For that third grade (67.0% and 76.6%) present some important
reason, the statistically difference is very important (F4, statistically differences with the rest grades. The fourth
399 = 43.806, p < 0.001). grade (81.9%) displays some statistically significant
In the sixth task, all the students of all the grades obtain differences with the second (p < 0.001), the third (p =
the lowest score, as very few children answered the 0.003 < 0.005) and the sixth grade (p = 0.003 < 0.005) and
second question. Also, in this task, we observe that not with the fifth grade. Respectively, the fifth grade
children of the fifth grade have the highest score (65.4%) (84.1%) presents statistically significant differences with
whereas children of the second grade obtain the lowest the second and the third grade (p < 0.001) and not with the
score (50.6%). In this task, a statistically significant fourth and the sixth grade. Also, the sixth grade (87.2%)
difference is experienced (F4, 399 = 11.738, p < 0.001). displays some statistically important differences with the
In the seventh task, we observe a great deviation second (p < 0.001), the third (p < 0.001), and the fourth
between the five grades and a statistically significant grade (p = 0.003 < 0.005) and not with the fifth grade.
difference (F4, 399 = 22.661, p < 0.001). It is noticeable The influence of gender on solving probability tasks is
that there is not important difference between the scores of noticed as the girls performed better on each of the seven
the third (68.5%) and the fourth grade (68.1%) but there is tasks of the Test. Statistically significant differences
an important difference between the kids of the fifth among the gender and the tasks are observed in the first
(75.1%) and the sixth grade (84.1%). task (t = 2.497, df = 402, p = 0.013 < 0.05), the fourth task
Upon examination of the whole Test, it can be (t = 3.527, df = 402, p < 0.001), the fifth task (t = 2.204, df
established that children of all age groups were able to = 402, p = 0.028 < 0.05) and in the final score (t = 3.128,
solve probability tasks as the average performance of all df = 402, p = 0.002 < 0.005). In addition, girls performed
the respondents is 79.5%. A statistically significant better in all the grades except for the fourth grade in which
difference is observed in the final score (F4, 399 = 38.802, boys present a slightly better score.

Figure 1. The percentages of correctly solved tasks

were able to recognize different events and categorize

4. Discussion and Conclusion them depending on their likelihood.
In all the mentioned activities children predicted and
In the research, it was established that the majority of assessed the likelihood of an event. The situations differ
children of second to sixth grade of the elementary school among themselves, they are related to everyday life, to
was able to compare the probability of various events. common language, they are presented in different ways
Also, some statistically significant differences have been and offer children many possibilities for discussion,
experienced between the different ages of the students and assessment and arguing the likelihood of an event.
the gender at solving probability tasks. Alongside the vocabulary development and familiarity
It can be concluded that our results are similar to the with recording conventions, all of the different types of
ones of the researchers, such as Fischbein et al. (1984) and activity offered to primary aged children in mathematics
Davies (1965), who believe that children in elementary lessons were supposed to bring with them some aspect of
school are able to solve certain probability tasks. In a mathematical perspective on the relationship between
addition, these results agree with the outcomes of the possibilities and probabilities. That is, after all, the main
research of HodnikCadez & Skrbe (2011) who support point of introducing probability into mathematics classes.
that children of the younger grades of the primary school
 American Journal of Educational Research 539

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