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Cape Pure Math Unit 2 Probability

This document introduces several key concepts in probability: 1) It defines probability as dealing with the likelihood of events occurring and introduces notation for the probability of an event A as P(A). 2) It discusses set notation and defines mutually exclusive events and independent events. 3) It introduces formulas for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events, including using addition or multiplication depending on whether events are exclusive or independent. 4) It provides examples of using tree diagrams to calculate probabilities of combined events.

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Hugh Ingram
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311 views

Cape Pure Math Unit 2 Probability

This document introduces several key concepts in probability: 1) It defines probability as dealing with the likelihood of events occurring and introduces notation for the probability of an event A as P(A). 2) It discusses set notation and defines mutually exclusive events and independent events. 3) It introduces formulas for calculating probabilities of unions and intersections of events, including using addition or multiplication depending on whether events are exclusive or independent. 4) It provides examples of using tree diagrams to calculate probabilities of combined events.

Uploaded by

Hugh Ingram
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

Introduction
With probability we are dealing with the probability of an event happening (or not
happening). An event could be anything from 'obtaining a head when flipping a coin' to
'it raining next Thursday'.

The probability that an event, A, will happen is written as P(A).

The probability that the event A, does not happen is called the complement of A and
is written as A'.

As either A must or must not happen then:

P(A') = 1 − P(A)

...as probability of a certainty is equal to 1

Set notation

If A and B are two events then:

A ∩ B represents the event 'both A and B occur'.

A ∪ B represents the event 'either A or B occur'.

Mutually Exclusive Events


Two events are mutually exclusive if the event of one happening excludes the other
from happening. In other words, they both cannot happen simultaneously.

For exclusive events A and B then:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

This can be written in set notation as:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

This can be extended for three or more exclusive events:

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

Example:

When a fair die is rolled find the probability of rolling a 4 or a 1.


P(4 or 1) = P(4) + P(1)
= 1/6 + 1/6
= 2/6 = 1/3
Handy hint:
Exclusive events will involve the words 'or', 'either' or something which implies 'or'.
Remember 'OR' means 'add'.

Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one happening does not affect the
occurrence of the other.

For independent events A and B then:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

This can be written in set notation as:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

Again, this result can be extended for three or more events:

P(A and B and C) = P(A) × P(B) × P(C)

Example:

A coin is flipped at the same time as a dice is rolled. Find the probability of obtaining a
head and a 5.

P(H and 5) = P(H) × P(5)


= 1/2 × 1/6
= 1/12
Handy hint:
Independent events will involve the words 'and', 'both' or something which implies
either of these.
Remember 'and' means 'multiply'.

Tree diagrams
Most problems will involve a combination of exclusive and independent events. One of
the best ways to answer these questions is to draw a tree diagram to cover all the
arrangements.

Example:
A bag contains 8 apples. 5 are eating apples and 3 are cooking apples. If 2 apples are
drawn, without replacement, find the probability that at least 1 is an eating apple.

To answer this question we will draw a tree diagram. As there are to be two picks we
will draw our tree diagram in two stages. The first pick and then the second pick.

We let E, stand for eating apple and C, for cooking apple.

1. In first pick, P(E) = 5/8 and P(C) = 3/8. We write the possibilities on each
branch. These branches are exclusive.
2. If an eating apple is picked first, then for the second pick we can either get
another eating apple or a cooking apple. Now only 7 apples are left in the bag.
3. However, if a cooking apple is picked first we can then pick either an eating
apple or a cooking apple.

P(at least 1 Eating apple) = P(E and E) + P(E and C) + P(C and E)
= 20/56 + 15/36 + 15/36
= 50/56
Note: We could have answered this question using the complement...

P(at least 1 Eating apple) = 1 - P(no eating apples)


= 1 - P (C and C)
= 1 - 6/56
= 50/56 as before
Note: Each pair of branches sum to 1 (they are exclusive). Events between the first
and second set of branches are independent events.

The Addition Law


If two events, A and B, are not mutually exclusive then the probability that A or B will
occur is given by the addition formula:
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

Don't panic, this just means: The probability of A or B occurring is the probability of A
add the probability of B minus the probability that they both occur. This is best seen
by an example...

Example:

Pick a card at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that you pick an ace
or a spade.

We want P(ace or spade) or P(ace ∪ spade).

P(ace ∪ spade) = P(ace) + P(spade) − P(ace ∩ spade)


= 4/52 + 13/52 − 1/52
= 16/52 or 4/13
Remember:

P(ace ∩ spade) = P(ace and spade)


= 4/52 × 13/52

= 1/52 i.e. the card is the ace of spades

Maths A-level: Probability


Conditional probability
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If we need to find the probability of an event occurring given that another event has
already occurred, then we are dealing with conditional probability.

If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability that A occurs given that B
already has is written as P(A | B) where:

or:

Example:
A frog climbing out of a well is affected by the weather. When it rains, he falls back
down the well with a probability of 1/10. In dry weather, he only falls back down with
probability of 1/25. The probability of rain is 1/5.

Find the probability that given he falls it was a rainy day.

Let's start by drawing the tree diagram of these events:


Another way to think about conditional probability is:

How many ways there are of obtaining 'A and B' out of a total possible number of ways
of getting the 'B':

If we rearrange this formula we obtain another useful result:


If the two events A and B are independent (i.e. one doesn't affect the other)
then quite clearly:

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