168 Chapter 5 Probability

5–1 A cynical person once said, “The only two sure things are death and taxes.” This phi-
losophy no doubt arose because so much in people’s lives is affected by chance. From
Introduction the time a person awakes until he or she goes to bed, that person makes decisions re-
garding the possible events that are governed at least in part by chance. For example,
should I carry an umbrella to work today? Will my car battery last until spring? Should
I accept that new job?
Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occur-
ring. Many people are familiar with probability from observing or playing games of
chance, such as card games, slot machines, or lotteries. In addition to being used in
games of chance, probability theory is used in the fields of insurance, investments, and
weather forecasting, and in various other areas. Finally, as stated in Chapter 1, proba-
bility is the basis of inferential statistics. For example, predictions are based on proba-
bility, and hypotheses are tested by using probability.
The basic concepts of probability are explained in this chapter. These concepts in-
clude probability experiments, sample spaces, the addition and multiplication rules, and
the probabilities of complementary events. Section 5–5 explains how the counting rules
of Chapter 4 and the probability rules can be used together to solve a wide variety of
problems.

5–2 The theory of probability grew out of the study of various games of chance using coins,
dice, and cards. Since these devices lend themselves well to the application of concepts
Sample Spaces and of probability, they will be used in this chapter as examples. This section begins by ex-
Probability plaining some basic concepts of probability. Then the types of probability and probabil-
ity rules are discussed.

Basic Concepts Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck are called
probability experiments.
Objective 1. Determine
sample spaces and find the
probability of an event using
A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes.
classical probability or An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
empirical probability.

A trial means flipping a coin once, rolling one die once, or the like. When a coin is
tossed, there are two possible outcomes: head or tail. (Note: We exclude the possibility
of a coin landing on its edge.) In the roll of a single die, there are six possible outcomes:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. In any experiment, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sam-
ple space.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here.
Experiment Sample space
Toss one coin Head, tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true–false question True, false
Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 169

It is important to realize that when two coins are tossed, there are four possible out-
comes, as shown in the fourth experiment above. Both coins could fall heads up. Both
coins could fall tails up. Coin 1 could fall heads up and coin 2 tails up. Or coin 1 could
fall tails up and coin 2 heads up. Heads and tails will be abbreviated as H and T through-
out this chapter.

Example 5–1 Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Solution
Since each die can land in six different ways, and two dice are rolled, the sample space
can be presented by a rectangular array, as shown in Figure 5–1. The sample space is the
list of pairs of numbers in the chart.

Figure 5–1 Die 2

Sample Space for Rolling Die 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Two Dice (Example 5–1)
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

Example 5–2 Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards.

Solution
Since there are four suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades) and 13 cards for each
suit (ace through king), there are 52 outcomes in the sample space. See Figure 5–2.

Figure 5–2 A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
Sample Space for
Drawing a Card
(Example 5–2) A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K

A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K

A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K

Example 5–3 Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children. Use
B for boy and G for girl.
170 Chapter 5 Probability

Solution
Historical Note
There are two genders, male and female, and each child could be either gender. Hence,
The famous Italian
astronomer Galileo there are eight possibilities, as shown here.
(1564–1642) found that a BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG
sum of ten occurs more
often than any other sum
when three dice are In the previous examples, the sample spaces were found by observation and
tossed. Previously, it was
thought that a sum of nine
reasoning; however, a tree diagram can also be used. In Chapter 4, the tree diagram
occurred more often than was used to show all possible outcomes in a sequence of events. The tree diagram
any other sum. can also be used as a systematic way to find all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.

Example 5–4 Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children in a family,
as in Example 5–3.

Solution
There are two possibilities for the first child, two for the second, and two for the third.
Hence, the tree diagram can be drawn as shown in Figure 5–3.

Figure 5–3
Third
Tree Diagram for child Outcomes
Example 5–4 Second
child B BBB

B
First
child G BBG

B BGB

G BGG

B GBB

G GBG

B GGB

G GGG

An outcome was defined previously as the result of a single trial of a probability

experiment. In many problems, one must find the probability of two or more out-
comes. For this reason, it is necessary to distinguish between an outcome and an
event.
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 171

Historical Note An event consists of the outcomes of a probability experiment.

A mathematician named
Jerome Cardan An event can be one outcome or more than one outcome. For example, if a die is
(1501–1576) used his rolled and a 6 shows, this result is called an outcome, since it is a result of a single trial.
talents in mathematics An event with one outcome is called a simple event. The event of getting an odd num-
and probability theory to
ber when a die is rolled is called a compound event, since it consists of three outcomes
make his living as a
gambler. He is thought to or three simple events. In general, a compound event consists of two or more outcomes
be the first person to or simple events.
formulate the definition of There are three basic types of probability:
classical probability.
1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

Classical Probability Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen. One does not actually have to perform the experiment to determine
Historical Note that probability. Classical probability is so named because it was the first type of prob-
ability studied formally by mathematicians in the 17th and 18th centuries.
During the mid-1600s, a Historical Note
professional gambler Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally
named Chevalier de Méré
likely to occur. For example, when a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same
made a considerable
amount of money on a probability of occurring. Since there are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability
gambling game. He would of 61. When a card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, one assumes that the
bet unsuspecting patrons deck has been shuffled, and each card has the same probability of being selected. In this
that in four rolls of a die, case, it is 521 .
he could get at least one
6. He was so successful at
the game that some peo- Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring.
ple refused to play. He de-
cided that a new game
was necessary to continue
his winnings. By reason- Formula for Classical Probability
ing, he figured he could
The probability of any event E is
roll at least one double 6
in 24 rolls of two dice, but number of outcomes in E
his reasoning was incor- total number of outcomes in the sample space
rect and he lost systemati-
cally. Unable to figure out This probability is denoted by
why, he contacted a math-
ematician named Blaise nE
PE 
Pascal (1623–1662) to nS
find out why.
Pascal became This probability is called classical probability, and it uses the sample space S.
interested and began
studying probability
theory. He corresponded Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where appropriate—
with a French government percentages. If one asks, “What is the probability of getting a head when a coin is
official, Pierre de Fermat
tossed?” typical responses can be any of the following three.
(1601–1665), whose
hobby was mathematics. “One-half.”
Together the two “Point five.”
formulated the beginnings
“Fifty percent.”
of probability theory.
172 Chapter 5 Probability

These answers are all equivalent. In most cases, the answers to examples and exercises
Historical Note given in this chapter are expressed as fractions or decimals, but percentages are used
Ancient Greeks and where appropriate.
Romans made crude dice
from animal bones, Rounding Rule for Probabilities Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or
various stones, minerals,
rounded to two or three decimal places. When the probability of an event is an ex-
and ivory. When they were
tested mathematically, tremely small decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to the first nonzero digit af-
some were found to be ter the point. For example, 0.0000587 would be 0.00006. When obtaining probabilities
quite accurate. from one of the tables in Appendix C, use the number of decimal places given in the
table. If decimals are converted to percentages to express probabilities, move the point
two places to the right and add a percent sign.

Example 5–5 For a card drawn from an ordinary deck, find the probability of getting a king.

Solution
Since there are 52 cards in a deck and there are 4 kings, P(king)  524  131 .

Example 5–6 If a family has three children, find the probability that all the children are girls.

Solution
The sample space for the gender of children for a family that has three children is BBB,
BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG (see Examples 5–3 and 5–4). Since
there is one way in eight possibilities for all three children to be girls,
P GGG  18

Example 5–7 A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities.
a. Of getting a jack.
b. Of getting the 6 of clubs.
c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond.

Solution
a. Refer to the sample space in Figure 5–2. There are 4 jacks and 52 possible
outcomes. Hence,
P(jack)  524  131
b. Since there is only one 6 of clubs, the probability of getting a 6 of clubs is
P(6 of clubs)  521
c. There are four 3s and 13 diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is counted twice in this
listing. Hence, there are 16 possibilities of drawing a 3 or a diamond, so
P(3 or diamond)  52
16
 134

There are four basic probability rules. These rules are helpful in solving probability
problems, in understanding the nature of probability, and in deciding if your answers to
the problems are correct.
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 173

Historical Note Probability Rule 1

Paintings in tombs The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between and includ-
excavated in Egypt show ing 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0  P(E)  1.
that the Egyptians played
games of chance. One
game called Hounds and Rule 1 states that probabilities cannot be negative or greater than one.
Jackals played in 1800 B.C.
is similar to the present-
day game of Snakes and Probability Rule 2
Ladders. If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample space), the prob-
ability is zero.

Example 5–8 When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

Solution
Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9. Hence, the prob-
ability is P(9)  06  0.

Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E  1.

In other words, if P(E)  1, then the event E is certain to occur. This rule is illus-
trated in the next example.

Example 5–9 When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than 7?

Solution
Since all outcomes, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, are less than 7, the probability is
P(number less than 7)  66  1
The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

For example, in the roll of a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a prob-
ability of 16. Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is as shown.

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
Probability 6 6 6 6 6 6
Sum 1
6  1
6  1
6  1
6  1
6  1
6  66  1
174 Chapter 5 Probability

Complementary Events Another important concept in probability theory is that of complementary events. When
a die is rolled, for instance, the sample space consists of the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6. The event E of getting odd numbers consists of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event
of not getting an odd number is called the complement of event E, and it consists of the
outcomes 2, 4, and 6.

The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes _in the sample space that are not included in the
outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by E (read “E bar”).

The next example further illustrates the concept of complementary events.

Example 5–10 Find the complement of each event.

a. Rolling a die and getting a 4.
b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel.
c. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J.
d. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday.

Solution
a. Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
b. Getting a consonant (assume y is a consonant).
c. Getting February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, or
December.
d. Getting Saturday or Sunday.

The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the complement make up the entire
sample space. For example, if two coins are tossed, the sample space is HH, HT, TH,
and TT. The complement of “getting all heads” is not “getting all tails,” since the event
“all heads” is HH, and the complement of HH is HT, TH, and TT. Hence, the comple-
ment of the event “all heads” is the event “getting at least one tail.”
Since the event and its complement make up the entire sample space, it follows that
the sum of the probability of the event and the probability of its complement will
—
equal 1. That is, P(E)  P(E )  1. In the previous example, let E  all heads, or HH,
— —
and let E  at least one tail, or HT, TH, TT. Then P(E)  14 and P(E )  34 ; hence,
—
P(E)  P(E )  4  4  1.
1 3

The rule for complementary events can be stated algebraically in three ways.

Rule for Complementary Events

— — —
P(E )  1  P(E) or P(E)  1  P(E ) or P(E)  P(E )  1

Stated in words, the rule is: If the probability of an event or the probability of its
complement is known, then the other can be found by subtracting the probability from 1.
This rule is important in probability theory because at times the best solution to a prob-
lem is to find the probability of the complement of an event and then subtract from 1 to
get the probability of the event itself.
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 175

Example 5–11 If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is 51, find
the probability that a person does not live in an industrialized country.
Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1737 (February 1995), p. 11.

Solution
P (not living in an industrialized country)  1  P (living in an industrialized
country)  1  51  45.

Probabilities can be represented pictorially by Venn diagrams. Figure 5–4(a)

shows the probability of a simple event E. The area inside the circle represents the prob-
ability of event E—that is, P(E). The area inside the rectangle represents the probability
of all the events in the sample space, P(S).
The Venn diagram that represents the probability of the complement of an event
— —
P(E ) is shown in Figure 5–4(b). In this case, P(E )  1  P(E), which is the area inside
the rectangle but outside the circle representing P(E). Recall that P(S)  1 and
—
P(E)  1  P(E ). The reasoning is that P(E) is represented by the area of the circle and
—
P(E ) is the probability of the events that are outside the circle.

Figure 5–4
Venn Diagram for the
Probability and
Complement P (E ) P (E )

P (S ) = 1 P (E )

(a) Simple probability (b) P (E ) = 1 – P (E )

Empirical Probability The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical probabil-
ity assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes when a die
is rolled) while empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the like-
lihood of outcomes. In empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die
6000 times and observe the various frequencies and use these frequencies to deter-
mine the probability of an outcome. Suppose, for example, that a researcher asked
25 people if they liked the taste of a new soft drink. The responses were classified as
“yes,” “no,” or “undecided.” The results were categorized in a frequency distribution, as
shown.
Response Frequency
Yes 15
No 8
Undecided 2
Total 25
176 Chapter 5 Probability

Probabilities now can be compared for various categories. For example, the probability
15
of selecting a person who liked the taste is 25 , or 35, since 15 out of 25 people in the sur-
vey answered “yes.”

Formula for Empirical Probability

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is
frequency for the class f
PE  
total frequencies in the distribution n
This probability is called empirical probability and is based on observation.

Example 5–12 In the soft-drink survey just described, find the probability that a person responded
“no.”

Solution
f 8
P E  
n 25
Note: This is the same relative frequency explained in Chapter 2.

Example 5–13 In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood,
and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following
probabilities:
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Source: Based on American Red Cross figures presented in The Book of Odds by Michael D. Shook and
Robert L. Shook (New York: Penguin Putnam, Inc., 1991), p. 33.

Solution

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
f 21
a. P O  
n 50
22 5 27
b. P A or B   
50 50 50
(Add the frequencies of the two classes.)
5 2 7
c. P neither A nor O   
50 50 50
(Neither A nor O means that a person has either type B or type AB blood.)
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 177

2 48 24
d. P not AB   1  PAB  1   
50 50 25
(Find the probability of not AB by subtracting the probability of type AB from 1.)

Example 5–14 Hospital records indicated that maternity patients stayed in the hospital for the number
of days shown in the distribution.
Number of
days stayed Frequency
3 15
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
127
Find these probabilities.
a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days. c. A patient stayed at most 4 days.
b. A patient stayed less than 6 days. d. A patient stayed at least 5 days.

Solution
56
a. P 5  
127
15 32 56 103
b. P less than 6 days     
127 127 127 127
(Less than 6 days means either 3, or 4, or 5 days.)
15 32 47
c. P at most 4 days   
127 127 127
(At most 4 days means 3 or 4 days.)
56 19 5 80
d. P at least 5 days    
127 127 127 127
(At least 5 days means either 5, or 6, or 7 days.)

Empirical probabilities can also be found using a relative frequency distribution, as

shown in Section 2–3.
For example, the relative frequency distribution of the soft-drink data shown
before is
Relative
Response Frequency frequency
Yes 15 0.60
No 8 0.32
Undecided 2 0.08
25 1.00
Hence, the probability that a person responded “no” is 0.32, which is equal to 258 .

Law of Large Numbers When a coin is tossed one time, it is common knowledge that the probability of getting
a head is 12. But what happens when the coin is tossed 50 times? Will it come up heads
178 Chapter 5 Probability

25 times? Not all of the time. One should expect about 25 heads if the coin is fair. But
due to the chance variation, 25 heads will not occur most of the time.
If the empirical probability of getting a head is computed using a small number of
trials, it is usually not exactly 12. However, as the number of trials increases, the empiri-
cal probability of getting a head will approach the theoretical probability of 12, if in fact
the coin is fair (i.e., balanced). This phenomenon is an example of the law of large
numbers. In other words, if one tosses a coin enough times, the number of heads and
tails will tend to “even out.” This law holds for any type of gambling game—tossing
dice, playing roulette, and so on.
It should be pointed out that the probabilities that the proportions steadily approach
may or may not agree with those theorized in the classical model. If not, it can have im-
portant implications, such as “the die is not fair.” Pit bosses in Las Vegas watch for em-
pirical trends that do not agree with classical theories, and they will sometimes take a set
of dice out of play if observed frequencies are too far out of line with classical expected
frequencies.

Subjective Probability The third type of probability is called subjective probability. Subjective probability
uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions
and inexact information.
In subjective probability, a person or group makes an educated guess at the chance
that an event will occur. This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation
of a solution. For example, a sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that
the Pirates will win the pennant next year. A physician might say that on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need an operation. A seismologist
might say there is an 80% probability that an earthquake will occur in a certain area.
These are only a few examples of how subjective probability is used in everyday life.
All three types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective) are used to solve
a variety of problems in business, engineering, and other fields.

Probability and An area where people fail to understand probability is in risk taking. Actually, people
Risk Taking fear situations or events that have a relatively small probability of happening rather than
those events that have a greater likelihood of occurring. For example, a recent USA
Weekend magazine poll (August 22–24, 1997) showed that 9 out of 10 Americans an-
swered “No” when asked the question, “Is the world a safer place than when you were
growing up?” However, in his book entitled How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life (Mer-
ritt Publishing, Santa Monica, California, 1996), author James Walsh states: “Despite
widespread concern about the number of crimes committed in the United States, FBI
and Justice Department statistics show that the national crime rate has remained fairly
level for 20 years. It even dropped slightly in the early 1990s.”
He further states, “Today most media coverage of risk to health and well-being fo-
cuses on shock and outrage.” Shock and outrage make good stories and can scare us
about the wrong dangers. For example, the author states that if a person is 20% over-
weight, the loss of life expectancy is 900 days (about 3 years), but loss of life expectancy
from exposure to radiation emitted by nuclear power plants is 0.02 days. As you can see,
being overweight is much more of a threat than being exposed to radioactive emission.
Many people gamble daily with their lives—for example, using tobacco, drinking
and driving, riding motorcycles, etc. When people are asked to estimate the probabili-
ties or frequencies of death from various causes, they tend to overestimate causes such
as accidents, fires, and floods and underestimate the probabilities of death from diseases
 Section 5–2 Sample Spaces and Probability 179

(other than cancer), strokes, etc. For example, most people think that their chances of
dying of a heart attack are 1 in 20, when in fact it is almost 1 in 3; the chances of dying
by pesticide poisoning are 1 in 200,000 (True Odds by James Walsh). The reason peo-
ple think this way is that the news media sensationalize deaths resulting from cata-
strophic events and rarely mention deaths from disease.
When dealing with life-threatening catastrophes such as hurricanes, floods, automo-
bile accidents, or smoking, it is important to get the facts. That is, get the actual numbers
from accredited statistical agencies or reliable statistical studies, and then compute the
probabilities and make decisions based on your knowledge of probability and statistics.
In summary, then, when you make a decision or plan a course of action based on
probability, make sure that you understand the true probability of the event occurring.
Also, find out how the information was obtained (i.e., from a reliable source). Weigh the
cost of the action and decide if it is worth it. Finally, look for other alternatives or
courses of action with less risk involved.

Exercises
5–1. What is a probability experiment? e. The probability that a student will get a C or better in a
statistics course is about 70%.
5–2. Define sample space.
f. The probability that a new fast-food restaurant will be a
5–3. What is the difference between an outcome and an success in Chicago is 35%.
event? g. The probability that interest rates will rise in the next
5–4. What are equally likely events? six months is 0.50.

5–5. What is the range of the values of the probability of 5–12. (ans) If a die is rolled one time, find these
an event? probabilities.
a. Of getting a 4
5–6. When an event is certain to occur, what is its b. Of getting an even number
probability? c. Of getting a number greater than 4
5–7. If an event cannot happen, what value is assigned to d. Of getting a number less than 7
its probability? e. Of getting a number greater than 0
f. Of getting a number greater than 3 or an odd number
5–8. What is the sum of the probabilities of all of the g. Of getting a number greater than 3 and an odd number
outcomes in a sample space?
5–13. If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability
5–9. If the probability that it will snow tomorrow is 0.85, of getting these results.
what is the probability that it will not snow tomorrow? a. A sum of 6
5–10. A probability experiment is conducted. Which of the b. Doubles
following cannot be considered a probability of an c. A sum of 7 or 11
outcome? d. A sum greater than 9
a. 13 d. 0.59 g. 1 e. A sum less than or equal to 4
b. 15 e. 0 h. 33% 5–14. (ans) If one card is drawn from a deck, find the
c. 0.80 f. 1.45 i. 112% probability of getting these results.
5–11. Classify each statement as an example of a. An ace
classical probability, empirical probability, or subjective b. A diamond
probability. c. An ace of diamonds
a. The probability that a person will watch the 6:00 d. A 4 or a 6
evening news is 0.15. e. A 4 or a club
b. The probability of winning at a chuck-a-luck game is 365 . f. A 6 or a spade
c. The probability that a bus will be in an accident on a g. A heart or a club
specific run is about 6%. h. A red queen
d. The probability of getting a royal flush when five cards i. A red card or a 7
1
are selected at random is 649,740 . j. A black card and a 10
180 Chapter 5 Probability

5–15. A box contains five red, two white, and three green or more of their prisons. If a state is selected at random,
marbles. If a marble is selected at random, find these find the probability that it is currently under such a court
probabilities. order.
a. That it is red. Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1736 (January 1995), p. 11.
b. That it is green.
c. That it is red or white. 5–27. A baseball player’s batting average is 0.331. If she
d. That it is not green. is at bat 53 times during the season, find the approximate
e. That it is not red. number of times she gets to first base safely. Walks do
not count.
5–16. In an office there are five women and four men. If
one person is selected, find the probability that the person 5–28. In a survey, 16 percent of American children said
is a woman. they use flattery to get their parents to buy them things.
If a child is selected at random, find the probability that
5–17. If there are 50 tickets sold for a raffle and one person the child said he or she does not use parental flattery.
buys 7 tickets, what is the probability of that person Source: Harper’s Index 289, no. 1735 (December 1994), p. 13.
winning the prize?
5–29. If three dice are rolled, find the probability of getting
5–18. There are 7 cans of cola and 9 cans of ginger ale in a triples—e.g., 1, 1, 1; 2, 2, 2.
cooler. If a person selects one can of soda at random, find
the probability it is a can of cola. 5–30. Among 100 students at a small school, 50 are
mathematics majors, 30 are English majors, and 20 are
5–19. A survey found that 53% of Americans think history majors. If a student is selected at random, find the
U.S. military forces should be used to “protect the probability that she is neither a math major nor an English
interest of U.S. corporations” in other countries. If an major.
American is selected at random, find the probability
that he or she will disagree or have no opinion on the 5–31. The distribution of ages of CEOs is as follows:
issue. Age Frequency
5–20. A certain brand of grass seed has an 86% probability
21–30 1
of germination. If a lawn care specialist plants 9000 seeds,
find the number that should germinate. 31–40 8
41–50 27
5–21. A couple has three children. Find each
51–60 29
probability.
a. Of all boys 61–70 24
b. Of all girls or all boys 71–up 11
c. Of exactly two boys or two girls
Source: Information based on
d. Of at least one child of each gender
USA Today Snapshot,
5–22. In the game craps using two dice, a person wins on November 13, 1997.
the first roll if a 7 or an 11 is rolled. Find the probability of If a CEO is selected at random, find the probability that his
winning on the first roll. or her age is
5–23. In a game of craps, a player loses on the roll if a 2, 3, a. Between 31 and 40
or 12 is tossed on the first roll. Find the probability of b. Under 31
losing on the first roll. c. Over 30 and under 51
d. Under 31 or over 60
5–24. The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that in
1995, 12,249 men and women escaped from state prisons. *5–32. A person flipped a coin 100 times and obtained 73
Of these, 12,166 were captured. Find the probability that an heads. Can the person conclude that the coin was
escapee was captured in 1995. unbalanced?
5–25. A roulette wheel has 38 spaces numbered 1 through *5–33. A medical doctor stated that with a certain
36, 0, and 00. Find the probability of getting these results. treatment, a patient has a 50% chance of recovering
a. An odd number without surgery. That is, “Either he will get well or he
b. A number greater than 25 won’t get well.” Comment on his statement.
c. A number less than 15 not counting 0 and 00 *5–34. The wheel spinner shown on the next page is spun
5–26. Thirty-nine of 50 states are currently under court twice. Find the sample space, and then determine the
order to alleviate overcrowding and poor conditions in one probability of the following events.
 Section 5–3 The Addition Rules for Probability 181

player would win $5 once in 6 rolls and lose $1 on the

other 5 rolls—hence the term fair game.
0
In most gambling games, the odds given are not fair.
For example, if the odds of winning are really 20 to 1, the
4
house might offer 15 to 1 in order to make a profit.
1 Odds can be expressed as a fraction or as a ratio, such
as 51, 5:1, or 5 to 1. Odds are computed in favor of the event
3 or against the event. The formulas for odds are
2
PE
odds in favor 
1  P E
—
PE 
odds against  —
1  P E 
a. An odd number on the first spin and an even number on
the second spin. (Note: 0 is considered even.) In the die example,
1
b. A sum greater than 4 1
odds in favor of a 6  65  or 1:5
c. Even numbers on both spins 6 5
d. A sum that is odd 5
5
e. The same number on both spins odds against a 6  61  or 5:1.
6 1
*5–35. Roll a die 180 times and record the number of 1s, Find the odds in favor of and against each event.
2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s. Compute the probabilities of each, a. Rolling a die and getting a 2
and compare these probabilities with the theoretical results. b. Rolling a die and getting an even number
*5–36. Toss two coins 100 times and record the number c. Drawing a card from a deck and getting a spade
of heads (0, 1, 2). Compute the probabilities of each d. Drawing a card and getting a red card
outcome, and compare these probabilities with the e. Drawing a card and getting a queen
theoretical results. f. Tossing two coins and getting two tails
g. Tossing two coins and getting one tail
*5–37. Odds are used in gambling games to make them
fair. For example, if a person rolled a die and won every
time he or she rolled a 6, then the person would win on the
average of once every 6 times. So that the game is fair, the
odds of 5 to 1 are given. This means that if the person bet
$1 and won, he or she could win $5. On the average, the

5–3 Many problems involve finding the probability of two or more events. For example, at
a large political gathering, one might wish to know, for a person selected at random, the
The Addition Rules for probability that the person is a female or is a Republican. In this case, there are three
Probability possibilities to consider:
Objective 2. Find the
1. The person is a female.
probability of compound
events using the addition 2. The person is a Republican.
rules. 3. The person is both a female and a Republican.
Consider another example. At the same gathering there are Republicans, Demo-
crats, and Independents. If a person is selected at random, what is the probability that the
person is a Democrat or an Independent? In this case, there are only two possibilities:
1. The person is a Democrat.
2. The person is an Independent.
The difference between the two examples is that in the first case, the person se-
lected can be a female and a Republican at the same time. In the second case, the person