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Weakness in Predicting A Number of COVID-19 Cases

The document discusses weaknesses in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases. Many early scientific efforts largely failed to accurately forecast the impact of the pandemic. Models created by experienced researchers significantly overestimated fatalities compared to actual numbers. More reliable data and prespecified performance tests are needed for models to make accurate predictions and avoid problems like unnecessary healthcare resource allocation. Uncertainty in data can also affect policy decisions. Precise predictions are important to avoid economic losses and ensure proper resource allocation during future waves of the virus which have been difficult to anticipate.

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Azamat Kazamat
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44 views4 pages

Weakness in Predicting A Number of COVID-19 Cases

The document discusses weaknesses in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases. Many early scientific efforts largely failed to accurately forecast the impact of the pandemic. Models created by experienced researchers significantly overestimated fatalities compared to actual numbers. More reliable data and prespecified performance tests are needed for models to make accurate predictions and avoid problems like unnecessary healthcare resource allocation. Uncertainty in data can also affect policy decisions. Precise predictions are important to avoid economic losses and ensure proper resource allocation during future waves of the virus which have been difficult to anticipate.

Uploaded by

Azamat Kazamat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Weakness in predicting a number of COVID-19 cases

When current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19  started


in Wuhan, people around the world have made many estimations and
predictions for this pandemic in various type of journals, articles, social
networking and even on websites. The COVID-19 has created a major crisis
worldwide and also with unpredictable consequences. According to John P.A.
Ioannidis, Sally Cripps and Martin A. Tanner (2020) studies, many scientists
have struggled to make forecasts about its impact. Even though the predictions
involved many excellent modelers, best intentions and very sophisticated tools,
the result from forecasting efforts have largely failed. This can be seen when
experienced modelers drew parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu
that can caused more than 50 million deaths with mean age of death being 28.
Unfortunately, in June 18, the total fatalities are most likely equivalent to
450,000 with median age is 80 and suffering from various comorbidities.

Another weak forecast can be seen when an American philanthropist,


Melinda Gates stated in an interview, there have been multiple projections in
regards to the number of COVID-19 deaths that the African continent will see,
however the recent estimation from the UNECA might be the most confusing.
Besides, a case study written by Vincent Chin, Noelle I. Samia, Roman
Marchant, Ori Rosen, John P. A. Ioannidis, Martin A. Tanner and Sally Cripps
(2020) stated between March 25 and June 25 in New York state, predictions
made by four models for the daily COVID-19 death counts and it results poorly
from all models that have been tested for predictions accuracy. To predict
accurately, an input data needs to be from reliable sources and the model itself
needs to prespecified real-time performance tests before publishing any result.

All these uncertainties predictions will eventually produce huge problems


such as patients getting important treatments might not be able to get proper
health care when the hospital has decided to largely empty wards just for
COVID-19 patients. But, in the end, the predicted cases have not shown a right
number of COVID-19 cases that are supposed to happen. Thus, a precise
prediction is needed in order to avert any economic loss on government or
hospitals or even by creating an amount of useless and untrustworthy of
COVID-19 cases in the future. In addition, according to Gian Luigi Mazzi,
James Mitchell and Florabela Carausu (2019) studies, uncertainty of data can
affect the economic historian’s view of the past and policymaker’s decisions in
the present.  
People do not know the next COVID-19 wave that can happen anytime

According to The Star (2020), the second wave of COVID-19 started on Feb 27.
The biggest cluster was the Seri Petaling cluster, involving a religious gathering
held at a mosque in Seri Petaling Kuala Lumpur. This cluster recorded a total of
3,375 infections and spawned 17 sub-clusters. More than 30 deaths were
reported for this cluster, which was finally declared over on July 8, 2020 (The
Star,2020). After that, according to the World Health Organization (2020), an
article entitle COVID-19 situation overview in Malaysia, noted that under the
Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO), government has allowed the re-
opening of school, resumption of religious lecture and eased the border
restrictions but still all people need to follow the Standard Operating Procedures
(SOPs).

However, recently according to the Health Ministry (2020), on September 30,


89 COVID-19 new cases recorded. On the next day, October 1, the number of
new COVID-19 cases increase rapidly which is 260 (Health Ministry,2020).
According to Asiatimes (2020), health director-general Noor Hisham Abdullah
declared on October 8 that the country had entered a “third wave” and called on
Malaysians to do their part to flatten the curve by staying indoors and adhering
to existing health protocols.

“Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin acknowledged that while the surge in new Covid-19
cases could be attributed to the recently-concluded Sabah polls, the election was
unavoidable. While the Election Commission (EC) had imposed Standard
Operating Procedures (SOP) to contain the spread of the virus, there were those
who did not follow the SOPs, such as physical distancing. (New Straits
Times,2020)”. Based on the facts stated, it can be concluded that most people
take easy on these COVID-19 matter and do not follow the SOPs very well
because they cannot predict and do not even know the next COVID-19 wave
that can happen anytime.

The purpose of this project is to predict the number of COVID-19 cases in the
future and with the information, government can aware the people to be more
careful and follow the SOPs more accurately.

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