ISSN 2347 - 3983

Volume 9. No. 7, July 2021

Mihir BhawsarInternational
et al., InternationalJournal of Emerging
Journal of Emerging Trends inTrends inResearch,
Engineering Engineering
9(7), JulyResearch
2021, 988 – 993
Available Online at http://www.warse.org/IJETER/static/pdf/file/ijeter24972021.pdf
https://doi.org/10.30534/ijeter/2021/24972021

A Survey of Weather Forecasting based on Machine Learning and

Deep Learning Techniques
Mihir Bhawsar1, Vandan Tewari2, Preeti Khare3
1
Computer Science Engineering, SGSITS Indore, India,
Email: [email protected]
2
Computer Science Engineering, SGSITS Indore, India,
Email: [email protected]
3
Computer Science Engineering, SGSITS Indore, India,
Email: [email protected]

Weather forecasting is done using relevant details about the

ABSTRACT
Forecast of future weather is one of the dominant concerns in present status of the atmosphere and utilizing a scientific
today’s era. Several techniques that have been used to understanding of the cosmic technique to show how the universe
forecast future weather are statistical analysis, machine will change in the next few hours.
learning, and deep learning techniques. Forecast of weather There are many different end-to-end user predictions. Weather
can assist in the decision-making process for the prevention alerts are important predictions because they are used for the
of disasters. While forecasting weekly weather can help protection of health and property. Predictions based on
people, decide and manage their activities and recreational temperature and rainfall are important in agriculture, and
programs it can also help Smart management programs. The therefore in order traders within the stock market. Temperature
accuracy of the Short term ambient forecast conditions is forecasts are also used by companies to measure more demand
particularly conducive to the development of forecast days to come. Every day people use the weather forecast to find
management strategies. This paper presents an inclusive
out what to wear on a given day.
survey on such methods based on Machine Learning, and
Deep Learning Techniques used to predict weather and
discusses the applications, types, and problems of the 2. RELATED WORK
forecasting.
We inspected a few papers on machine learning for the
Key words: Weather Forecast, Machine Learning, Deep prediction of weather, Mark Holmstrom, Dylan Liu, Christopher
Learning Techniques, Data Mining Vo [1] investigate their application to climate determining to
conceivably produce more exact climate gauges for huge time
1. INTRODUCTION frames. On the other hand, Sanjay D. Sawaitul, Prof. K. P. Wagh,
Dr. P. N. Chatur [2] discussed different models which were used
Forecasting has pulled in the consideration of numerous
in the past for weather forecasting. Fahad Sheikh, S. Karthick, D.
researchers due to its impact on the health of humans. The
Malathi, J. S. Sudarsan, and C. Arun [3] has discussed C4.5 and
availability of large-scale forecasting data and the origin of
Na¨ıve Bayes algorithm, a novel strategy for foreseeing the kinds
computer information and technology over the past decade
of weather dependent on the PV power data and partial
have encouraged researchers to explore mysterious patterns
meteorological data was discussed by Wenying Zhang, Huaguang
in large-scale weather forecasting databases. Forecasting of Zhang, Fellow, IEEE, Jinhai Liu, Kai Li, Dongsheng Yang, and
Weather is a research project with a wide range of potential Hui Tian [4]. G.Vamsi Krishna [5] using the autoregressive
applications from air travel to agriculture and tourism. integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to estimate the future
Forecasting is a complex and challenging skill that involves worth. In this model, at first, a numerical model is produced by
observing and processing a large amount of data. thinking about an ordered group of data, and afterward, the
Over the past decade, many important efforts to predict the forecast is completed by using the model utilizing the current
weather using mathematical modeling techniques including qualities and the past information. Autocorrelation models and
machine learning, deep learning, data mining have been partial autocorrelation models are likewise considered for playing
done. Methods include persistence, weather, viewing the sky, out the interventional investigation. Janani. B, Priyanka Sebastian
barometer use, nowcasting, use of predictive models, analog [6] focus on different procedures that are utilized for weather
and predict together. Predictability can be used by air traffic, prediction. R. Samya, R. Rathipriya, [7] review the different
weather warnings, maritime, agricultural, utility companies, forecast procedures for cloudburst utilizing Data Mining and
private sector, military. Forecasting is a scientific challenge Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The survey of Data Mining
based on good weather monitoring, data analysis by Techniques for Weather Prediction and studies the advantage of
meteorologists and computers, and a fast communication utilizing it was discussed by Divya Chauhan, Jawahar Thakur [8].
system. Divya Chauhan, Jawahar Thakur [8] additionally give a review of

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the accessible writing of certain algorithms utilized by framework is drawing closer, and there is a more noteworthy
various researchers to use different data mining methods, for possibility of a downpour. Pressure increments are related to
Weather Prediction. Prashant Biradar, Sarfraz Ansari, improved weather conditions.
YashavantParadkar, Savita Lohiya [9] talked about the
utilization of K-medoids and Naive Bayes algorithm for 3.7 NOWCASTING
weather determining framework with boundaries like
temperature, moistness, and the breeze. In this way, Weather forecasts for the next six hours are commonly called
successful models to predict weather are to be analyzed. One nowcasting. At this point, it is possible to predict small things
paper constructs effective models to predict the weather. like individual thunderstorms with the right precision, just as
Neural networks and gradient boosting classifier. S. different things that are too little to ever be addressed by a
Nagadevi, Varun Ramesh, Helloween James are using four computer.
different machine learning algorithms for predicting weather.
3.8 USE OF FORECASTING MODELS
Algorithms – KNearestNeighbour, Decision Tree, Random
Forest Algorithm, Linear Regression. Human forecasters were answerable for creating all the
weather as indicated by available data. Today, human info is
3. TYPES OF WEATHER FORECASTING frequently confined to model selection dependent on different
boundaries, e.g. model discrimination and performance. It
3.1 CLIMATOLOGY METHOD uses the harmony of climate models, as well as the
integration of members of a wide range of species, can help
This method provides a process to generate a weather decrease environmental mistakes. In any case, regardless of
forecast. After reviewing weather data collected over how minor the mistake may be in any individual system,
many years and calculating estimates Meteorologists use major errors within any specific directional correction may
this method. occur in any given model operation. Individuals can utilize
data about local results, which might be too little in size to be
3.2 ANALOG METHOD settled by a model for adding details to a forecast.

This method can be used when forecasting the weather 3.9 ENSEMBLE FORECASTING
because it requires finding the date in the past with
weather it’s like a current forecast, which is hard to do. Although the weather model will predict changing weather
conditions for the distant future, errors in the forecast will
3.3 PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS METHOD inevitably grow over time due to atmospheric turmoil and
inconsistencies at first sight. The information that can be
Persistence and inclination require less expertise to
given in the forecast diminishes after some time as these
predict the weather because it depends on past trends. In
mistakes increment. This turns into a point where the
the world, the weather is changing, much like the
mistakes are incredible to such an extent that the estimate
weather forecast for today. This only requires that you
can’t meet the genuine atmosphere.
stay up-to-date with current temperatures and know the
However, looking at one prediction offers there is no
weather conditions in the region.
indication of the probability of such a prediction accuracy.
Predictability includes the production of multiple predictions
3.4 NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION in sequence to show uncertainty at first atmosphere (due to
Weather forecasts on prices depend on computers for errors visual and inadequate sample). Uncertainty is a
finding the weather. Larger supercomputers help prediction that can be checked for various predictions are
meteorologists to make weather forecasts based on many generated.
weather conditions. Ensemble forecasts continue to be used for weather forecasts
Group expectation requires a perplexing comprehension of
the universe and computer models.
3.5 LOOKING AT THE SKY
By seeing at the sky you can determine weather by 4. UTILIZATION’S OF WEATHER FORECASTING
seeing the sun or the moon or if you are looking at very
high clouds. In the event that the mists are cloudy, there Predictions of the future weather can be applied to the
is an opportunity for an awful climate in a little while following areas:
later on. To decide when the tempest is coming, look at
whether the clouds are moving or not. 4.1 TOUGH WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVICE
In today’s weather forecasts there are weather warnings
3.6 USE OF A BAROMETER and advice, issued by national meteorologists in a situation
where bad or dangerous weather is normal. This warning is to
Barometric pressure has been used in predictions since
secure life of humans and their belongings. Some of the
the 19th century. At the point when a low-pressure

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worst weather forecasts are known as hurricanes and 4.6 PRIVATE SECTOR
hurricane warnings, as well as the latest flood warnings
in parts of Nigeria by the National Meteorological Privately owned businesses are paying for weather
Agency. Different kinds of exhortation incorporate forecasts to discover their requirements to build their benefits
winter weather, strong winds, floods, cyclones, and fog. and stay away from significant misfortunes. Climate
Extensive advice and warnings are broadcast through the estimates can be utilized to put resources into the stock
media, including radio, utilizing emergency services, for market, like the eventual fate of oranges, corn, soybeans, and
example, the Emergency Alert System, which oil. Additionally, community members utilize future climate
incorporates into the standard system. data to choose what to wear, every day.

4.2 AIR TRAFFIC 4.7MILITARY APPLICATIONS

The navigation industry is highly touchy to the Military weather forecasts are weather conditions
climate, careful climate estimates are important because including war, society.
the majority of recorded plane crashes worldwide have Military weather forecasts give pre-appearance climate
weather-related causes. data to pilots and give genuine security insurance services
4.3 MARINE conveyed in the military.

The utilization of waterways can be severely restricted 5. MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES USED IN
by wind and speed, earthquake time, high waves, and WEATHER FORECASTING
rain. These may contribute to the safety of navigation.
As a result, different types of codes were developed to So far, anything we have seen is traditional weather forecasts.
accurately convey detailed maritime weather forecasts to These methods are not stable and tend to make mistakes in
send pilots by radio. finding. In addition, we cannot predict big time to use them
because they become inaccurate at the time. The Most commonly
4.4 AGRICULTURE utilized machine learning techniques for weather forecasting are
Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Neural Networks, Rule-based
Ranchers rely upon climate estimates to sort out what Methods, Support Vector Machine, Bayesian Belief Network, K-
work they will do on some random day. Dry seasons can Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest Algorithm, Linear Regression.
harm crops. While plants can be harmed by the dry There are usually only two machine learning methods used to
season, their dried buildups can be used as feed for predict the weather i.e. Bayesian Network and Neural Network.
steers as silage. Snow and cold play ruin with plants
both spring and harvest time. For instance, a completely 5.1 NEURAL NETWORK
developed peach tree can make their peach crop free
from frostbite. Orange groves can be severely damaged Neural Networks are extremely amazing in nature so it is
during snow and cold, regardless of the season. the most famous approach to contemplate weather
forecasting equipment. The primary justification for this
4.5 COMPANIES USED notoriety is the capacity to catch non-linear conditions of the
past and future weather conditions, in contrast to the reversal
Electricity and gas organizations rely upon weather of the line and models of active order [12].
estimates to satisfy requests, which could be essentially
influenced by the weather. They use a value called 5.2 BAYESIAN NETWORK
degree-day to determine how much energy will be used
Bayesian Network utilizes machine learning algorithms to
in heat or cooling. These qualities depend on the
everyday temperature of between 650 F (180C). Cool decide the right Bayesian Network and boundaries
[temperature, stickiness, see, etc.]. The expense of the
temperatures force the hot days, while hotter
temperatures power cooling days. In winter, a freezing Bayesian Network computation is extravagant because of an
enormous number of various conditions [18].
climate can make an expansion sought after as
individuals raise their temperature. Essentially, in the
summer or during the dry season an expansion popular 6. MACHINE LEARNING SEQUENCE IN DATA
might be related to expanded utilization of cooling MINING TECHNIQUES
frameworks in sweltering climate. In anticipation of an
increase in demand, service providers may produce a 6.1 DATA COLLECTION
power supply or natural gas before the value rises, or in The information utilized was gathered at the
some cases, goods are limited by the utilization of black meteorologist’s center. The accompanying advances were
spots and power outages. adopted in this exploration stage: Data Cleaning, Data
Selection, Data Transformation, and Data Mining.

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6.2 DATA CLEANING 7.3 DECISION TREE

At this stage, the corresponding data model format Structural structures such as trees representing decision
was created which is to look for missing information, sets. These decisions generate data classification rules [14].
recover information, and erase awful information.
Eventually, the system cleanup details were converted 8. DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR WEATHER
into the appropriate data mining format. FORECASTING

6.3 DATA SELECTION Up until this point, anything we have seen is known as
conventional weather forecasts. These conventional techniques
Data relating to analysis as a decision tree was cut and are flimsy and often make prediction mistakes. Moreover, we
extracted from the database. cannot predict a great time to use them because they become
6.4 DATA TRANSFORMATION inaccurate at the time. There are usually some deep learning
methods used to predict the weather i.e. Convolution Network
“This is also known as data consolidation”. It is the (CN), Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBM),
stage wherein the picked data is changed into structures Recurrent Neural Network.
appropriate for Data mining. The data file was saved in
Commas Separated Value (CVS) document format and 8.1 RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK
the dataset was normalized to diminish the effect of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) [19] is an artificial NN
scaling on the data. [17] used to anticipate a progression of times. Elman
networks that are important for the RNN comprising of at
6.5 DATA MINING STAGE
least one secret layer. The primary layer has the weight found
The data mining phase is separated into three stages. in the installation all the layers will get the load from the
In each stage, all algorithms are utilized to analyze the previous layer. This network has the function of activating
climate data set. The test method adopted in this study is which can be in the form of any function going on and on.
to divide the train training percentage into the data Postpones that happened in the primary secret layer
percentage, cross it working on it and test the leftover previously (t-l) can be applied to the present (t). In contrast to
rates. From there on the revelation of interesting patterns the repetitive neural network is a feedback loop that conveys
represent information. the details of the interruption (sound) of the previous input to
be inserted into the next input.
7. DATA MINING TECHNIQUES USED IN
8.2 CONDITIONAL RESTRICTED BOLTZMANN
WEATHER FORECASTING
MACHINES (CRBM)
The way toward getting fascinating information from a Restricted Boltzmann Machines are deep learning models
gigantic data known as Data Mining. Data sources are to tackle different issues, for example, collaborative filtering,
databases, data warehouses, the web, and other information classification, and modelling motion capture data problems
repositories. Furthermore, it is iterative sequence data. The [19].
most utilized Data mining procedure are classification,
clustering, Decision Trees. 8.3CONVOLUTION NETWORK (CN)

7.1 CLASSIFICATION Convolutional network (CN) models [19], as well as

neocognitrons [18], [19] known as one of the biologically
Classification means tracking down a model that inspired models.
classifies data classes for having the option to utilize a
model to foresee the class of objects with their unknown LeCunet al. describes the deep CN structure can have
class label [11]. Different classification algorithms are several stages. For CN application we use color images as
Backpropagation, KNN and, genetic algorithm. input, the CN commonly used in the background on the
feature map can be a 2D list containing the color path of the
7.2 CLUSTERING input image (for audio input map for each feature could be an
ID list, and for a video or a volumetric image, it could be a
Clustering investigations data objects without contact
3D list.
with a notable category label. The unsupervised learning
method of the clustering process is a helpful method to The common unsupervised training method for CNN to
discover styles and patterns in data, where there are no learn the filter coefficients in the filter bank layers is called
pre-defined classes [11]. Some of the clustering Predictive Sparse Decomposition Algorithm [15].
algorithms are K- mean and k- media.

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9. PROBLEMS OF WEATHER FORECASTING better predictable results would be obtained. The weather
forecast for the best solution has its limitations.
An objective of all scientific endeavors is to make exact
forecasts. Physicists or chemists conducting laboratory tests The reason for these limitations is the ambitious asset of
do so in the desire for tracking down some fundamental rules complex systems, which change like air. It is called
that can be utilized to foresee the result of different tests “Empathy dependence on original conditions”, and is a
dependent on those standards. Indeed, most laws of science symbol of what is widely known as revolutionary theory.
are too precise expectations in regards to the result of Space disorder doesn’t imply that everything is demolished;
particular sorts of tests. In any case, hardly a few all things being equal, it implies that the climate, in actuality,
physiologists are more worried about more complex or and the computer model can gain uniquely in contrast to the
challenging predictors than a meteorologist. primary marginally various conditions.

9.1 INCOMPLETE DATA 10. CONCLUSION

Data for modern numerical models still contributes Weather forecasting estimating is the usage of science and
significantly to radiosonde imaging. However, the development to anticipate the states of the environment for a
numerous radio broadcasts the World over has declined given area and time. Peoples have attempted to anticipate the
in the course of recent many years. The most evolved climate casually for a significant long time and officially since the
nations on the planet today, go through more cash to nineteenth century. Climate guesses are made by social occasion
dispatch satellites than exhausting weather balloons. quantitative data about the current status of the environment at a
Satellite information is internationally normal, yet given spot and utilizing meteorology to project how the climate
information coordination specialists are as yet will change.
attempting to sort out how this information can be”
With scientific advancements, a lot of research is going on
appropriately processed” by models. In addition,
weather gauging utilizing Data mining, deep learning, machine
important climatic factors remain elusive, especially at
learning have been done. However, there was a lack of surveys
sea. Model results are as good as the data in its original
available on the present status of exploration and application. This
form.
paper thus offers a survey of weather forecasting using various
9.2 MISCONCEPTIONS “VISION” AND techniques. Also summarizing the key concepts and focusing on
“FUTURES” the existing work on weather forecasting, its types, and its
applications. To conclude, how deep learning, data mining, and
Today’s forecasts include the inevitable trade between machine learning algorithms were employed in weather
horizontal and long-term resolutions. This is because forecasting is exceptionally important to guarantee future
good adjustment means more points than can be exploration will focus destined for success, accordingly
calculated. This requires a lot of computer time. The improving the performance of weather predictions.
future forecast also requires counting millions or
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