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CTY#18MAT41#MODULE-3#Binomial and Poisson Distribution-Problems

This document provides a blue print for teaching the topics of probability distributions and random variables. It includes discrete and continuous probability distributions such as binomial, Poisson, normal, and exponential distributions. Examples are given for the binomial distribution including the probability of successes from Bernoulli trials using the binomial probability formula. Problems are also provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities and theoretical frequencies using the binomial distribution formulae.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
175 views21 pages

CTY#18MAT41#MODULE-3#Binomial and Poisson Distribution-Problems

This document provides a blue print for teaching the topics of probability distributions and random variables. It includes discrete and continuous probability distributions such as binomial, Poisson, normal, and exponential distributions. Examples are given for the binomial distribution including the probability of successes from Bernoulli trials using the binomial probability formula. Problems are also provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities and theoretical frequencies using the binomial distribution formulae.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COMPLEX ANALYSIS,PROBABILITY & STATISTICAL

METHODS ( 18MAT41)

CHAYA T Y
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR,
DEPT. OF MATHEMATICS
SIR MVIT, BENGALURU
2
BLUE PRINT

 Module –III # Probability Distributions


Random Variables : Defn of Random variables, types, basic defn.

 Discrete Probability Distributions


Definition, Explanation, Types- Problems

 Continuous Probability Distributions


Definition, types, Explanation, Problems

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Random Variable(RV)
3
&
Probability Distribution

Discrete RV Continuous RV
& &
Discrete Probability Continuous Probability
Distribution Distribution

Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution


Normal Distribution Exponential Distribution

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


4

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Blue Print
Bernoulli’s Trails- Defn, expression

Binomial distribution-Defn, expression,


problems

Mean, variance, S.D, Theoretical frequency–


expressions, problems

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Bernoulli Trail

A random experiment with only two possible outcomes categorized as


5
success & failure is called a Bernoulli Trail, where the probability of success p is
same for each trail

Ex: Consider a random experiment of throwing a dice,


then we have,
Sample space, S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }

Let X random variable associated for getting even no. as


outcome
Sample space, S = { 2, 4,6 ,1,3, 5 }

p q

p prob. of success prob. of getting even no.

q prob. of failure prob. of getting any no. other than even no. as outcome,

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Binomial Distribution
6
If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure, the then
probability of x successes out of n trails is given

P  x   nC x p x q n  x Where, q =1-p probability of failure

Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation for Binomial Distributions

Mean,   n p S .D,   V  n p q

Variance,V  n p q

Note: To find theoretical frequency  f(x) =N * P(x)

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Problems:
1. If the consignments of electric bulbs produced by a factory are distributed
binomially with mean no of defectives 10 and S.D. is 3, find the probability of 7
a) none defective in a consignment.
b) 2 defectives in a consignment.
we have, Formulae:
Sol:
Let p probability that electric bulb is defective. n p  10
q probability that electric bulb is not defective Mean,   n p
x no. of defective electric bulbs in a consignment
n total no. of electric bulbs considered  0.1 n  10 Variance,V  n p q

Given, S .D,   V  n p q
To find p , q and n
n  100
Mean,   10 n p  10 P  x   nC x p x q n  x
npq  9
p  q 1

S .D,   3 npq  3
10  q  9 q  0.9
we know that , p  q  1 p  1  0.9  0.1
npq  9
p  1 q p  0.1

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


we have,
(1)
8
100  x
P  x   100C x  0.1  0.9 
x

(i) Prob. (none defective in a (ii) Prob. (that exactly 2 defective in a Formulae:
consignment) consignment)

100  0 P  x   nC x p x q n  x
p  x  0   100C0  0.1  0.9 
0
100  2
p  x  2   100C2  0.1  0.9 
2
p  q 1

p  x  0   2.656  105 p  x  2   1.623  103

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


2. If the mean and S.D. of the number of correctly answered questions in a test given to
4096 students are 2.5 and 1.875 . Find an estimate of the number of candidates
answering correctly, 9
a) 8 or more questions.
b) 2 or less questions.
c) 5 questions. Formulae:
we have,
Sol: Let p probability that the students answers correctly
q probability that the students gives wrong answers n p  2.5 Mean,   n p
x no. of correctly answered questions by a student
n no. of questions considered  0.25 n  2.5 Variance,V  n p q
N Total no. of students i.e., N=4096 S .D,   V  n p q
Given, To find p , q and n n  10
P  x   nC x p x q n  x
npq  1.875
Mean,   2.5 n p  2.5 p  q 1

S .D,   1.875
 2.5 q  1.875 q  0.75 Theoretical Frequency,
npq  1.875
we know that , p  q  1 f  x  N  P  x
p  1  0.75  0.25
npq  1.875
p  1 q p  0.25

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


we have, (ii) Prob. (that exactly 5 are questions
P  x   10C x  0.25   0.75 
10  x
(1) answered correctly)
10
x

10 5
f  x  5   4096  10C5  0.25   0.75 
5
Since the estimation is for N=4096
students, we have, theoretical frequency
Formulae:
10  x
f  x   4096  10Cx  0.25   0.75  f  x  5   239.2  239
x
(2)
Theoretical Frequency,
(i) Prob. (8 or more questions answered f  x  N  P  x
correctly) (ii) Prob. (2 or less questions answered
correctly)
f  x  8   f ( x  8)  f ( x  9)  f ( x  10)
f  x  2   f ( x  0)  f ( x  1)  f ( x  2)
 10C  0.25   0.75 
8 10 8 10 9 
 10C9  0.25   0.75 
9
 8 
f  x  8   4096   
  C10  0.25   0.75 
 10 10 0
 f  x  2   4096 
  C0  0.25   0.75 
10 0 10  0 1 10 1
 10C1  0.25   0.75 
10  2
 10C2  0.25   0.75 
2

f  x  8   1.7031  2 f  x  2   2152.8  2153

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


3. The probability that a pen manufactured by a factory be defective is 1 . If 12 such
pens are manufactured, what is the probability that, 10
a) Exactly 2 are defective. 11
b) At least 2 are defective.
c) None of them are defective.
d) At the most 2 are defective. Formulae:

Soln: Let p probability of defective pens


q probability of non-defective pens P  x   nC x p x q n  x
x no. of of defective pens
p  q 1
n no. of pens
Given, 1
p  0.1 and n  12
10 we have, (i) Prob. (exactly 2 are defective)
12  x
P  x   12C x  0.1  0.9 
x
sin ce, q  1  p 12  2
P  x  2   12C2  0.1  0.9 
2

 1  0.1  0.9 (1)


 12C2  0.1  0.9 
2 10

q  0.9 P  x  2   0.2301

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


we have,
(iii) Prob. (None of them are defective)
P  x   12C x  0.1  0.9 
x 12  x (1) 12
12  0
P  x  0   12C0  0.1  0.9 
0

(i) Prob. (at least 2 are defective) Formulae:


P  x  0   0.2824

P  x  2   P( x  2)  P( x  3)  ..........P( x  12) P  x   nC x p x q n  x
(iv) Prob. (at the most 2 are defective)
(or) p  q 1

P  x  2  1  P  x  2  1  P  x  2 P  x  2   P( x  0)  P( x  1)  P( x  2)

 1   P  x  0   P  x  1 12  0 12 1 12  2
 12C0  0.1  0.9   12C1  0.1  0.9   12C2  0.1  0.9 
0 1 2

P  x  2  1   12  0
C0  0.1  0.9 
12 0
 12C1  0.1  0.9 
1 12 1

P  x  2   12C0  0.1  0.9   12C1  0.1  0.9   12C2  0.1  0.9 
0 12 1 11 2 10

P  x  2   0.34099  0.341 P  x  2   0.8891

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


4. The probability of germination of a seed in a packet of seeds is found to be 0.7. If
10 seeds are taken for experimenting on germination in a lab, find the probability that
a) 8 seeds germinate 13
b) At least 8 seeds germinate
we have, Formulae:
Soln:
Let p probability of germination of seeds 10  x
P  x   10C x  0.7   0.3
x
q probability of non-germination of seeds
x no. of seeds that germinate in a packet P  x   nC x p x q n  x
n no. of seeds taken for germination (1) p  q 1
Given,

p  0.7 and n  10 (i) Prob. (exactly 8 seeds germinate) (i) Prob. (at least 8 seeds germinate)

P  x  8  1  P  x  8  1  P  x  8
10 8
sin ce, q  1  p P  x  8   10C8  0.7   0.3
8
(or)
 1  0.7  0.3 P  x  8   P( x  8)  P( x  9)  P( x  10)
 10C8  0.7   0.3
8 2

10 8 10 9
P  x  8   10C8  0.7   0.3  10C9  0.7   0.3
8 9

q  0.3
P  x  8   0.23347  0.2335  10C10  0.7   0.31010
10

P  x  8   0.38278  0.3828
Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru
5. A class of 100 students contains 10 bright students. Five students from the
class are selected at random. Find the probabilities that,
a) None of the selected is a bright student 14
b) All the selected are bright students.
we have,
Sol: Let p probability that student selected is bright 5 x
P  x   5C x  0.1  0.9  Formulae:
x

q probability that student selected is not bright


x no. of selected students who are bright no. of fav. outcomes
n total no. of students selected, n=5 (1) p
total no. of outcomes
10
Given, p  0.1 (i) Prob. (none of the selected
100 student is bright) P  x   nC x p x q n  x

p  0.1 p  q 1
50
P  x  0   5C0  0.1  0.9 
0
sin ce, q  1  p (ii) Prob. (all the selected students are
bright)
 1  0.1  0.9 P  x  5   5C5  0.1  0.9 
5 5 5
P  x  0   0.5905

q  0.9
P  x  5   1 105

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


15

Poisson DISTRIBUTION

Blue Print
Poisson distribution-Defn, expression,
problems

Mean, variance, S.D, Theoretical frequency–


expressions, problems

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Poisson Distribution
16
Let X be a discrete random variable taking values x=0,1,2,3…….. and
0 < p < 1, then the probability distribution is given by

mx
P  x  e m
, where, m  0  parameter of distribution
x!

Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation for Poisson Distributions

Mean,   m Variance,V  m

Theoretical Frequency,
S .D,   V  m
f  x  N  P  x

Note: Mean and variance are equal in the Poisson distribution

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Relationship b/n Binomial b  n, p, x  & Poisson p   , x  with   np Distrn:
17

If ‘p’ is very small and ‘n’ is very large compared to ‘p’, but ‘np’ is finite,
then we have

b  n, p, x   p   , x  with   np

Note:

1. It is the limiting form of binomial distribution when ‘n’ is very large  n    and p is
very small  p  0  so that ‘np’ tends to a fixed finite constant say ‘m’… i.e, m = np

2. Here ‘np’ is finite and is equal to the mean value of the distribution

3. Mean and variance are equal in the Poisson distribution

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


Problems:

1. Assuming that on the average 3% of the output of a factory making certain parts 18
are defective and that 300 units are in a package, what is the probability that at
the most 5 defective units are found in a package?
Formulae:
Soln: Let p probability that certain part is defective
x no. of defective units in a package
n no. of units taken/ considered mx
P  x  e m
,
Given, x!
with   m  np
9x
p  3%  0.03 and n  300 we have, P  x   e 9
,
x!

Prob. (at the most 5 defective units)


we know that , m  np
P  x  5   P( x  0)  P( x  1)  P( x  2)  P( x  3)  P( x  4)  P( x  5)
m  300  0.03
9  90 91 92 93 94 95 
e         0.11569
 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 
m9
P  x  5   0.1157
Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru
2. A switch board can handle only 4 telephone calls per minute. If the incoming
calls per minute follow a Poisson distribution with parameter 3, find the probability
that the switch board is over taxed in any one minute. 19
Soln:
Formulae:
Let p probability that a switch board can handle 4 calls per minute
x no. of in coming calls per minute
mx
Given, P  x  em
,
x!
parameter (m) of the Poisson distribution
with   m  np
m3 Prob. (that the switch board is >4)

P  x  4   1  P( x  4)  1  P  x  4 
x
3
we have, P  x   e 3 ,  1   P  x  0   P  x  1  P  x  2   P  x  3  P  x  4 
x!

3  30 31 32 33 34 
 1 e        0.1847
 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 

P  x  4   0.1847

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


3. A certain screw making machine has a chance of producing 2 defectives out of
1000. The screws are packed in boxes of 100. Using Poisson distributions, find the
approximate number of boxes containing
20
1. No defective screw
2. One defective screw Formulae:
3. Two defective screw in a consignment of 500 boxes
Soln:
Let p  probability that a screw is defective mx
x  no. of defective screws in a box containing 100 screws P  x  em
,
x!
n  no. of screws
N  no. of boxes i.e., N=500  0.2  x with   m  np
we have, P  x   e 0.2
Given, x!
no. of fav. outcomes
p
2
 0.002 and n  100 (i) Prob. (no defective screw) p
1000 total no. of outcomes
 0.2 0
we have, m  np P  x  0   e0.2 Theoretical Frequency,
0!
f  x  N  P  x
m  100  0.002 m  0.2 P  x  0   0.8187

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru


we have, (iii) Prob. (2 defective screws in a
consignment of 500 boxes)
P  x   e 0.2
 0.2  x (1) 21
x!
Since the estimation is for N=500 boxes,
we have, theoretical frequency
Formulae:
(ii) Prob. (one defective screw)
  0.2  x

f  x   500  e 0.2  Theoretical Frequency,
 0.2  1  x ! 
P  x  1  e 0.2 f  x  N  P  x
1!
  0.2  2

P  x  1  0.1637 f  x  2   500  e 0.2 
 2! 

f  x  2   8.187

Chaya T Y , SIR MVIT,Bengaluru

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