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Maths > Chapter 13: Probability > Exercise 13.3

NCERT Solution Class 12

Chapter 13 - Probability
Exercise 13.3

The Exercise 13.3 of NCERT Solutions for

Class 12 Maths Chapter 13 – Probability is
based on the following topics:
1. Bayes’ Theorem
a. Partition of a sample space
b. Theorem of total probability
Solve all the problems of this exercise to get
thorough with the concepts and topics
covered under the Bayes’ Theorem of the
chapter probability.

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Solutions for Class 12 Maths
Chapter 13- Probability Exercise
13.3

Access Other Exercises of Class 12

Maths Chapter 13
Exercise 13.1 Solutions 17 Questions
Exercise 13.2 Solutions 18 Questions
Exercise 13.4 Solutions 17 Questions
Exercise 13.5 Solutions 15 Questions
Miscellaneous Exercise On Chapter 13
Solutions 10 Questions
Access Answers to NCERT Class 12
Maths Chapter 13
1. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls.
A ball is drawn at random, its colour is
noted and is returned to the urn. Moreover,
2 additional balls of the colour drawn are
put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at
random. What is the probability that the
second ball is red?
Solution:
Given urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls.
Let in Vrst attempt the ball drawn is of red
colour.
P (probability of drawing a red ball) =
5/10 = ½
Now the two balls of same colour (red) are
added to the urn then the urn contains 7 red
and 5 black balls.
P (probability of drawing a red ball) =
7/12
Now let in Vrst attempt the ball drawn is of
black colour.
P (probability of drawing a black ball) =
5/10 = ½
Now the two balls of same colour (black)
are added to the urn then the urn contains 5
red and 7 black balls.
P (probability of drawing a red ball) =
5/12
Therefore, the probability of drawing the
second ball as of red colour is:

2. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls,

another bag contains 2 red and 6 black
balls. One of the two bags is selected at
random and a ball is drawn from the bag
which is found to be red. Find the
probability that the ball is drawn from the
Grst bag.
Solution:
Let E1 be the event of choosing the bag I,
E2 be the event of choosing the bag say bag
II and A be the event of drawing a red ball.
Then P (E1) = P (E2) = 1/2
Also P (A|E1) = P (drawing a red ball from
bag I) = 4/8 = ½
And P (A|E2) = P (drawing a red ball from
bag II) = 2/8 = ¼
Now the probability of drawing a ball from
bag I, being given that it is red, is P (E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have:

3. Of the students in a college, it is known

that 60% reside in hostel and 40% are day
scholars (not residing in hostel). Previous
year results report that 30% of all students
who reside in hostel attain A grade and 20%
of day scholars attain A grade in their
annual examination. At the end of the year,
one student is chosen at random from the
college and he has an A grade, what is the
probability that the student is a hostlier?
Solution:

4. In answering a question on a multiple

choice test, a student either knows the
answer or guesses. Let 3/4 be the
probability that he knows the answer and
1/4 be the probability that he guesses.
Assuming that a student who guesses at
the answer will be correct with probability
1/4. What is the probability that the student
knows the answer given that he answered it
correctly?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that the student knows
the answer, E2 be the event that the student
guess the answer and A be the event that
the answer is correct.
Then P (E1) = ¾
And P (E2) = ¼
Also P (A|E1) = P (correct answer given that
he knows) = 1
And P (A|E2) = P (correct answer given that
he guesses) = ¼
Now the probability that he knows the
answer, being given that answer is correct,
is P (E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have:

5. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective

in detecting a certain disease when it is in
fact, present. However, the test also yields
a false positive result for 0.5% of the
healthy person tested (i.e. if a healthy
person is tested, then, with probability
0.005, the test will imply he has the
disease). If 0.1 percent of the population
actually has the disease, what is the
probability that a person has the disease
given that his test result is positive?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that person has a
disease, E2 be the event that person don not
have a disease and A be the event that
blood test is positive.
As E1 and E2 are the events which are
complimentary to each other.
Then P (E1) + P (E2) = 1
P (E2) = 1 – P (E1)
Then P (E1) = 0.1% = 0.1/100 = 0.001 and P
(E2) = 1 – 0.001 = 0.999
Also P (A|E1) = P (result is positive given
that person has disease) = 99% = 0.99
And P (A|E2) = P (result is positive given that
person has no disease) = 0.5% = 0.005
Now the probability that person has a
disease, give that his test result is positive is
P (E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

6. There are three coins. One is a two

headed coin (having head on both faces),
another is a biased coin that comes up
heads 75% of the time and third is an
unbiased coin. One of the three coins is
chosen at random and tossed, it shows
heads, what is the probability that it was
the two headed coin?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event of choosing a two
headed coin, E2 be the event of choosing a
biased coin and E3 be the event of choosing
an unbiased coin. Let A be the event that the
coin shows head.
Then P (E1) = P (E2) = P (E3) = 1/3
As we a headed coin has head on both
sides so it will shows head.
Also P (A|E1) = P (correct answer given that
he knows) = 1
And P (A|E2) = P (coin shows head given
that the coin is biased) = 75% = 75/100 = ¾
And P (A|E3) = P (coin shows head given
that the coin is unbiased) = ½
Now the probability that the coin is two
headed, being given that it shows head, is P
(E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

7. An insurance company insured 2000

scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000
truck drivers. The probability of an
accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15
respectively. One of the insured persons
meets with an accident. What is the
probability that he is a scooter driver?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that the driver is a
scooter driver, E2 be the event that the driver
is a car driver and E3 be the event that the
driver is a truck driver. Let A be the event
that the person meet with an accident.
Total number of drivers = 2000 + 4000 +
6000 = 12000
Then P (E1) = 2000/12000 = 1/6
P (E2) = 4000/12000 = 1/3
P (E3) = 6000/12000 = ½
As we a headed coin has head on both
sides so it will shows head.
Also P (A|E1) = P (accident of a scooter
driver) = 0.01 = 1/100
And P (A|E2) = P (accident of a car driver) =
0.03 = 3/100
And P (A|E3) = P (accident of a truck
driver) = 0.15 = 15/100 = 3/20
Now the probability that the driver is a
scooter driver, being given that he met with
an accident, is P (E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

8. A factory has two machines A and B.

Past record shows that machine A
produced 60% of the items of output and
machine B produced 40% of the items.
Further, 2% of the items produced by
machine A and 1% produced by machine B
were defective. All the items are put into
one stockpile and then one item is chosen
at random from this and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it was
produced by machine B?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that item is produced by
A, E2 be the event that item is produced by B
and X be the event that produced product is
found to be defective.
Then P (E1) = 60% = 60/100 = 3/5
P (E1) = 40% = 40/100 = 2/5
Also P (X|E1) = P (item is defective given
that it is produced by machine A) = 2% =
2/100 = 1/50
And P (X|E2) = P (item is defective given that
it is produced by machine B) = 1% = 1/100
Now the probability that item is produced by
B, being given that item is defective, is P
(E2|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

9. Two groups are competing for the

position on the Board of directors of a
corporation. The probabilities that the Grst
and the second groups will win are 0.6 and
0.4 respectively. Further, if the Grst group
wins, the probability of introducing a new
product is 0.7 and the corresponding
probability is 0.3 if the second group wins.
Find the probability that the new product
introduced was by the second group.
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that Vrst group wins the
competition, E2 be the event that that
second group wins the competition and A
be the event of introducing a new product.
Then P (E1) = 0.6 and P (E2) = 0.4
Also P (A|E1) = P (introducing a new product
given that Vrst group wins) = 0.7
And P (A|E2) = P (introducing a new product
given that second group wins) = 0.3
Now the probability of that new product
introduced was by the second group, being
given that a new product was introduced, is
P (E2|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

P (E2|A) = 2/9
10. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets
a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and
notes the number of heads. If she gets 1, 2,
3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes
whether a head or tail is obtained. If she
obtained exactly one head, what is the
probability that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with
the die?
Solution:
let E1 be the event that the outcome on the
die is 5 or 6, E2 be the event that the
outcome on the die is 1, 2, 3 or 4 and A be
the event getting exactly head.
Then P (E1) = 2/6 = 1/3
P (E2) = 4/6 = 2/3
As in throwing a coin three times we get 8
possibilities.
{HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}
P (A|E1) = P (obtaining exactly one head
by tossing the coin three times if she get 5
or 6) = 3/8
And P (A|E2) = P (obtaining exactly one head
by tossing the coin three times if she get 1,
2, 3 or 4) = ½
Now the probability that the girl threw 1, 2, 3
or 4 with a die, being given that she
obtained exactly one head, is P (E2|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

P (E2|A) = 8/11
11. A manufacturer has three machine
operators A, B and C. The Grst operator A
produces 1% defective items, whereas the
other two operators B and C produce 5%
and 7% defective items respectively. A is on
the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job
for 30% of the time and C is on the job for
20% of the time. A defective item is
produced, what is the probability that it was
produced by A?
Solution:
Let E1 be the event of time consumed by
machine A, E2 be the event of time
consumed by machine B and E3 be the
event of time consumed by machine C. Let
X be the event of producing defective items.
Then P (E1) = 50% = 50/100 = ½
P (E2) = 30% = 30/100 = 3/10
P (E3) = 20% = 20/100 = 1/5
As we a headed coin has head on both
sides so it will shows head.
Also P (X|E1) = P (defective item produced
by A) = 1% = 1/100
And P (X|E2) = P (defective item produced
by B) = 5% = 5/100
And P (X|E3) = P (defective item produced
by C) = 7% = 7/100
Now the probability that item produced by
machine A, being given that defective item
is produced, is P (E1|A).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

P (E1|A) = 5/34
12. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost.
From the remaining cards of the pack, two
cards are drawn and are found to be both
diamonds. Find the probability of the lost
card being a diamond.
Solution:
Let E1 be the event that the drawn card is a
diamond, E2 be the event that the drawn
card is not a diamond and A be the event
that the card is lost.
As we know, out of 52 cards, 13 cards are
diamond and 39 cards are not diamond.
Then P (E1) = 13/52 and P (E2) = 39/52
Now, when a diamond card is lost then there
are 12 diamond cards out of total 51 cards.
Two diamond cards can be drawn out of 12
diamond cards in 12C2 ways.
Similarly, two diamond cards can be drawn
out of total 51 cards in 51C2 ways.
Then probability of getting two cards, when
one diamond card is lost, is P (A|E1).
Also P (A|E1) =12C2 / 51C2

Now, when not a diamond card is lost then

there are 13 diamond cards out of total 51
cards.
Two diamond cards can be drawn out of 13
diamond cards in 13C2 ways.
Similarly, two diamond cards can be drawn
out of total 51 cards in 51C2 ways.
Then probability of getting two cards, when
card is lost which is not diamond, is P
(A|E2).
Also P (A|E2) =13C2 / 51C2

13. Probability that A speaks truth is 4/5. A

coin is tossed. A reports that a head
appears. The probability that actually there
was head is
A. 4/5
B. 1/2
C. 1/5
D. 2/5
Solution:
A. 4/5
Explanation:
Let E1 be the event that A speaks truth,
E2 be the event that A lies and X be the
event that it appears head.
Therefore, P (E1) = 4/5
As E1 and E2 are the events which are
complimentary to each other.
Then P (E1) + P (E2) = 1
P (E2) = 1 – P (E1)
P (E2) = 1 – 4/5 = 1/5
If a coin is tossed it may show head or tail.
Hence the probability of getting head is 1/2
whether A speaks a truth or A lies.
P (X|E1) = P (X|E2) = ½
Now the probability that actually there was
head, give that A speaks a truth is P (E1|X).
By using Bayes’ theorem, we have

14. If A and B are two events such that

A ⊂ B and P(B) ≠ 0, then which of the
following is correct?
A. P (A| B) = P (B)/ P (A)
B. P(A|B) < P(A)
C. P(A|B) ≥ P(A)
D. None of these
Solution:
C. P (A|B) ≥ P (A)
Explanation:

NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths

Chapter 13 Probability Exercises
NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths Ex 13.1

NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths Ex 13.2

NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths Ex 13.4

NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths Ex 13.5

NCERT Solutions For Class 12 Maths

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