North America Economic Research

29 June 2021

US: COVID might not be over

With the delta variant of COVID-19 remaining a key concern for the global economic outlook, new virus cases
in the US inched up this week after a long and dramatic downtrend. Looking across states to describe the pattern
of virus spread, we find that new cases have grown more rapidly in states with higher levels of restaurant
spending, as measured by our Chase card spending data (Figure 1), in states with higher recent temperatures
(Figure 2), and in states where a lower share of the population has been vaccinated (Figure 3). The concentration
of case growth in states with higher spending and mobility measures and higher temperatures is ominously
similar to the beginning of last summer’s COVID wave, and we may well see cases continue to rise as the delta
variant becomes more prevalent, activity levels rebound, and people retreat into the air-conditioned indoors as
the summer heats up. But we still suspect that implications for the economic outlook will prove modest. This
time around, high rates of vaccination in many states should limit the size of the wave. Plus, we suspect that the
states where people have been most eager to reopen and least eager to get vaccinated will be reluctant to restrict
activity in response to new outbreaks, suggesting that effects on economic activity will be limited. But we will
continue to monitor the spread of COVID-19 and any implications for the economic outlook.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Economic and Policy Research
Jesse Edgerton
(1-212) 834-9543
[email protected]
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
 Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various
factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.
Other Disclosures
J.P. Morgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates
worldwide.
Any long form nomenclature for references to China; Hong Kong; Taiwan; and Macau within this research material are Mainland China;
Hong Kong SAR (China); Taiwan (China); and Macau SAR (China).

Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other benchmark rates: Certain interest rate benchmarks are, or may in the future
become, subject to ongoing international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and proposals for reform. For more information,
please consult: https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/disclosures/interbank_offered_rates
Private Bank Clients: Where you are receiving research as a client of the private banking businesses offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
and its subsidiaries (“J.P. Morgan Private Bank”), research is provided to you by J.P. Morgan Private Bank and not by any other division
of J.P. Morgan, including, but not limited to, the J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank and its Global Research division.
Legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research: The legal entity identified below the name of the Reg AC
Research Analyst who authored this material is the legal entity responsible for the production of this research. Where multiple Reg AC
Research Analysts authored this material with different legal entities identified below their names, these legal entities are jointly
responsible for the production of this research. Research Analysts from various J.P. Morgan affiliates may have contributed to the
production of this material but may not be licensed to carry out regulated activities in your jurisdiction (and do not hold themselves out as
being able to do so). Unless otherwise stated below, this material has been distributed by the legal entity responsible for production. If
you have any queries, please contact the relevant Research Analyst in your jurisdiction or the entity in your jurisdiction that has
distributed this research material.
Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures:
Argentina: JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A Sucursal Buenos Aires is regulated by Banco Central de la República Argentina (“BCRA”-
Central Bank of Argentina) and Comisión Nacional de Valores (“CNV”- Argentinian Securities Commission” - ALYC y AN Integral
N°51). Australia: J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (“JPMSAL”) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated
by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-
X. This material is issued and distributed in Australia by or on behalf of JPMSAL only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in section 761G
of the Corporations Act 2001). A list of all financial products covered can be found by visiting
https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures. J.P. Morgan seeks to cover companies of relevance to the domestic and international
investor base across all Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors, as well as across a range of market capitalisation sizes. If
applicable, in the course of conducting public side due diligence on the subject company(ies), the Research Analyst team may at times
perform such diligence through corporate engagements such as site visits, discussions with company representatives, management
presentations, etc. Research issued by JPMSAL has been prepared in accordance with J.P. Morgan Australia’s Research Independence
Policy which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan Australia - Research Independence Policy. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847
/ [email protected]. Canada: J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. is a registered investment dealer, regulated by the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Ontario Securities Commission and is the participating member on
Canadian exchanges. This material is distributed in Canada by or on behalf of J.P.Morgan Securities Canada Inc. Chile: Inversiones J.P.
Morgan Limitada is an unregulated entity incorporated in Chile. China: J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited has been
approved by CSRC to conduct the securities investment consultancy business. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is
regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - The
Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. This material has been distributed to persons regarded as professional
clients or market counterparties as defined under the DFSA rules. European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary,
research is distributed in the EEA by J.P. Morgan AG (“JPM AG”), which is a member of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, is authorised by
the European Central Bank (“ECB”) and is regulated by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). JPM AG is a company
incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with a registered office at Taunustor 1, 60310 Frankfurt am Main, the Federal Republic
of Germany. The material has been distributed in the EEA to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) pursuant to Art. 4
para. 1 no. 10 and Annex II of MiFID II and its respective implementation in their home jurisdictions (“EEA professional investors”).
This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not EEA professional investors. Any investment or investment
activity to which this material relates is only available to EEA relevant persons and will be engaged in only with EEA relevant persons.
Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong, and J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited (CE number AAB027) is
regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong (CE Number AAL996) is
regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission, is organized under the laws of the United
States with limited liability. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited (Corporate Identity Number - U67120MH1992FTC068724),
having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz - East, Mumbai – 400098, is registered with the
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a ‘Research Analyst’ having registration number INH000001873. J.P. Morgan India
Private Limited is also registered with SEBI as a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock
Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number – INZ000239730) and as a Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration Number -

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
 MB/INM000002970). Telephone: 91-22-6157 3000, Facsimile: 91-22-6157 3990 and Website: www.jpmipl.com. JPMorgan Chase
Bank, N.A. - Mumbai Branch is licensed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (Licence No. 53/ Licence No. BY.4/94; SEBI -
IN/CUS/014/ CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/ IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/ INBI00000984/ INE231311239) as a Scheduled Commercial
Bank in India, which is its primary license allowing it to carry on Banking business in India and other activities, which a Bank branch in
India are permitted to undertake. For non-local research material, this material is not distributed in India by J.P. Morgan India Private
Limited. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the OJK a.k.a.
BAPEPAM LK. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch, is a member of the Korea Exchange (KRX). JPMorgan
Chase Bank, N.A., Seoul Branch, is licensed as a branch office of foreign bank (JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.) in Korea. Both entities are
regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). For non-macro research material,
the material is distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch. Japan: JPMorgan Securities
Japan Co., Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Tokyo Branch are regulated by the Financial Services Agency in Japan. Malaysia:
This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X), which is a Participating
Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and holds a Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia.
Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.and J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero are members of the Mexican Stock Exchange and
are authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. New Zealand: This material is
issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008). JPMSAL
is registered as a Financial Service Provider under the Financial Service providers (Registration and Dispute Resolution) Act of 2008.
Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and
Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a Trading Participant of the Philippine Stock
Exchange and a member of the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines and the Securities Investor Protection Fund. It is
regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Russia: CB J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC is regulated by the Central Bank
of Russia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by or through J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
Limited (JPMSS) [MCI (P) 018/04/2020 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R], which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities
Trading Limited, and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) [MCI (P) 052/09/2020], both of which are
regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material is issued and distributed in Singapore only to accredited investors,
expert investors and institutional investors, as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap. 289 (SFA). This material is
not intended to be issued or distributed to any retail investors or any other investors that do not fall into the classes of “accredited
investors,” “expert investors” or “institutional investors,” as defined under Section 4A of the SFA. Recipients of this material in
Singapore are to contact JPMSS or JPMCB Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the material. As at
the date of this material, JPMSS is a designated market maker for certain structured warrants listed on the Singapore Exchange where the
underlying securities may be the securities discussed in this material. Arising from its role as a designated market maker for such
structured warrants, JPMSS may conduct hedging activities in respect of such underlying securities and hold or have an interest in such
underlying securities as a result. The updated list of structured warrants for which JPMSS acts as designated market maker may be found
on the website of the Singapore Exchange Limited: http://www.sgx.com. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary
Limited and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg Branch are members of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and are regulated
by the Financial Services Board. Taiwan: J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange
(company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. Material relating to equity securities is issued and distributed
in Taiwan by J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited, subject to the license scope and the applicable laws and the regulations in
Taiwan. According to Paragraph 2, Article 7-1 of Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in
Securities to Customers (as amended or supplemented) and/or other applicable laws or regulations, please note that the recipient of this
material is not permitted to engage in any activities in connection with the material that may give rise to conflicts of interests, unless
otherwise disclosed in the “Important Disclosures” in this material. Thailand: This material is issued and distributed in Thailand by
JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd., which is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance
and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and its registered address is 3rd Floor, 20 North Sathorn Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok
10500. UK: Unless specified to the contrary, research is distributed in the UK by J.P. Morgan Securities plc (“JPMS plc”) which is a
member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. JPMS plc is registered in England & Wales No. 2711006, Registered Office 25 Bank
Street, London, E14 5JP. This material is directed in the UK only to: (a) persons having professional experience in matters relating to
investments falling within article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) (Order) 2005 (“the FPO”);
(b) persons outlined in article 49 of the FPO (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations or partnerships, the trustees of high
value trusts, etc.); or (c) any persons to whom this communication may otherwise lawfully be made; all such persons being referred to as
"UK relevant persons". This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not UK relevant persons. Any investment or
investment activity to which this material relates is only available to UK relevant persons and will be engaged in only with UK relevant
persons. Research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policy for prevention and avoidance of conflicts
of interest related to the production of Research which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan EMEA - Research Independence
Policy. U.S.: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”) is a member of the NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
is a member of the FDIC. Material published by non-U.S. affiliates is distributed in the U.S. by JPMS who accepts responsibility for its
content.
General: Additional information is available upon request. The information in this material has been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this material are accurate and that the forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries
(collectively J.P. Morgan) make no representations or warranties whatsoever to the completeness or accuracy of the material provided,
except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and the Research Analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of
the material. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this
material. Any data discrepancies in this material could be the result of different calculations and/or adjustments. J.P. Morgan accepts no
liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents, and neither J.P. Morgan nor any of its respective

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.
 directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof, apart from the liabilities and responsibilities that
may be imposed on them by the relevant regulatory authority in the jurisdiction in question, or the regulatory regime thereunder.
Opinions, forecasts or projections contained in this material represent J.P. Morgan's current opinions or judgment as of the date of the
material only and are therefore subject to change without notice. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on
company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. There can be no
assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections, which represent only one
possible outcome. Furthermore, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that
have not been verified, and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred
to in this material may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. All pricing is indicative as of the close of market for the
securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Accordingly, investors may receive back
less than originally invested. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not
intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipients of this
material must make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein and should seek
advice from such independent financial, legal, tax or other adviser as they deem necessary. J.P. Morgan may trade as a principal on the
basis of the Research Analysts’ views and research, and it may also engage in transactions for its own account or for its clients’ accounts
in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this material, and J.P. Morgan is under no obligation to ensure that such other
communication is brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Others within J.P. Morgan, including Strategists, Sales staff
and other Research Analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this material. Employees of J.P. Morgan not
involved in the preparation of this material may have investments in the securities (or derivatives of such securities) mentioned in this
material and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this material. This material is not an advertisement for or
marketing of any issuer, its products or services, or its securities in any jurisdiction.
"Other Disclosures" last revised June 05, 2021.
Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P

Completed 29 Jun 2021 04:10 PM EDT Disseminated 29 Jun 2021 04:10 PM EDT
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of CHRISTOPHER Olson at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and clients of J.P. Morgan.