Lecture 4: Basic Probability Concepts

Number of waysthat A can occur

P(A) = probability that event A occurs =
Total number of possible outcomes
Two Rules
 All probabilities must be between 0 and 1 (cannot be negative, cannot exceed one)
 The sum over all possible outcomes must add to 1

Complement
 all outcomes that are not in A
 denoted A A
A
P ( A )=1−P ( A )

Union of Two Events

 A ∪ B= A∨B
 The outcomes in either A or B or both

Intersection of Two Events

 A ∩ B= A∧B (the overlap)
 The outcomes in both A and in B

Mutually Exclusive Events

 Two events that cannot happen at the same time
 If A occurs, B cannot occur A B
 P( A∧B)=0 (there is no overlap)

Find the probability of:

(a) Drawing either an Ace or a Spade from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. (4 Aces and 13 spades)
P( Ace∨Spade)=¿

(b) Drawing either a Red Ace or a Spade? P(¿ Ace∨Spade)=¿

(c) Drawing neither an Ace nor a Spade? P(neither )=1−P(either )

Solutions: 1. (a) 16/52 (b) 15/52 (c) 36/52

Addition Law (OR) to find the union of two events (the probability that at least one event occurs)
P ( A∨B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )−P ( A∧B ) P ( A∧B )=0 if mutually exclusive events
Add the probabilities and subtract the overlap (because the overlap was included twice)

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Independent Events: The probability that one event occurs in no way affects the probability
of the other event occurring. The fact that A occurs does not change the probability of B.
Dependent Events: The probability of one event occurring influences the chances of the
other event. The likelihood of the second event depends on what happens in the first event.

e.g. Studying for a test and how well you do on the test? Dependent or independent events?

Multiplication Law (AND)

P ( A∧B )=P ( A ) × P ( B∨ A ) for all events
P ( A∧B )=P ( A ) × P ( B ) for independent events only

1. You flip a coin twice. Find the probability that both flips are heads. P ( H 1∧H 2 )=¿

2. You roll a pair of six-sided dice. Find the probability of rolling two fives?

3. You roll one six-sided die. Find the probability of rolling either a two or a five.

4. From its TV studio’s in Bountiful, Reality TV is marketing a new reality TV series called
“Who Wants To Marry a Bigamist”. In the exciting final episode the bigamist will ask the
final two contestants, Agnes and Bertha, to marry him. The executives have determined that
there is a 40% chance that Agnes will say yes and a 50% chance that Bertha will say yes.
If Agnes and Bertha act independently, what is the probability that
(a) at least one of the women will say yes? (b) none of the women say yes?
(c) only Agnes says yes? (d) only Bertha says yes? (e) only one of the women says yes?

Solutions: 1. 1/4 2. 1/36 3. 2/6 4. (a) 0.70 (b) 0.30 (c) 0.20 (d) 0.30 (e) 0.20 + 0.30 = 0.50

Example: You draw 2 cards from a deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that both cards are Aces.
4 4
(a) If the first card drawn is replaced then P ( A 1∧ A 2) = × =P ( A 1) × P ( A 2)
52 52
(b) If on your first draw you had an Ace and you put that aside, the probability of drawing an
Ace on the second draw is greatly changed because you drew an Ace the first time.
4 4−1 3
On your first draw: P ( Ace )= On your second draw: P ( Ace )= =
52 52−1 51

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 4 3
× =P ( A 1) × P ( A 2∨A 1 ) A1 changes probability of A2(dependent events)
P ( A 1∧ A 2 ) =
52 51
2 × 2 Probability Tables
 Put one mutually exclusive event and its complement along the top.
 Put the other mutually exclusive event and its complement along the left side.
 Inside the table put the “AND” probabilities.

A not A Total
B P ( A∧B ) P ( B∧not A ) P( B)
not B P ( A∧not B ) P ( not A∧not B ) P(not B) The BC Lottery Corp. is
Total P( A) P(not A) 1 deciding whether or not they
should allow cigarette smoking in casinos. Before making their decision they want to determine
if smokers are more likely to gamble in casinos than non-smokers. They randomly select 400
adults and ask them if they gamble in a casino on a regular basis (i.e. at least once per week) and
whether they smoke.
 80 adults smoke • 60 adults gamble in a casino at least once a week
 28 adults both gamble (in a casino at least once a week) and smoke

Set up a 2 × 2 table of the frequencies

Smoker Non-Smoker Total
Gamble
Don’t Gamble
Total

(a) What percentage of adults both gamble on a regular basis and smoke? P( S∧G)=¿

(b) What percentage of adults either gamble or smoke?

P ( S∨G )=P ( S ) + P ( G )−P ( S∧G )=¿

(c) What percentage of adults neither gamble nor smoke?

P(neither )=1−P(either )=¿

(d) What percentage of adults either smoke or gamble but not both? Both Only one
Only one None

Solutions (a) 7% (b) 28% (c) 72% (d) 21%

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Lab Exercises (there are no extra questions)
1. The manager of a Marvin Gardens, a large apartment complex, provides the following
probabilities to estimate the number of vacancies that will exist next month:
Vacancies Probability
0 0.05
1 0.15
2 0.35
3 0.25
4 0.10
5 0.10

A: Are these valid probability assignments?

B: Find the probability there are (a) no vacancies? (b) at least 4 vacancies? (c) at most 2?

2. If the probabilities are 0.05, 0.14, 0.17, 0.33, 0.20 and 0.11 that consumers will rate a new
product: very poor, poor, fair, good, very good, or excellent, respectively, what are the
probabilities that a consumer selected at random will rate the new product:
(a) very poor or poor? (b) good, very good, or excellent?
(c) good, given that you know that the rating is in the group (good, very good or excellent)?

3. If F and T are the events that a one-car driver in a certain age bracket will drive a Ford or a
Toyota, and P(F) = 0.34 and P(T) = 0.08, find the probabilities that such a person will:
(a) not drive a Ford (b) drive either a Ford or a Toyota (c) drive neither a Ford nor a Toyota.

4. An article in Cat Lover’s Monthly asked 40 randomly selected cat owners to rank their cat’s
behavior from rotten to excellent. The results are summarized in the table below:

Rating Number of Owners

Excellent 2
Very
3
Good
Good 5
Mediocre 6
Rotten 24
Total 40

What percentage of owners rated the cat’s behaviour as (a) excellent? (b) at least good? (c) rotten?

5. A batch of 50 parts contains 6 defective parts.

(a) If the two parts are randomly selected one at a time without replacement, what is the
probability that both parts are defective?
(b) If, instead, the first part is put back into the batch and then the second part is selected
(sampling with replacement) what is the probability that both parts are defective?

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6. Brendan recently graduated from the BCIT Marketing program. He hasn’t found a job yet so
he spends a lot of time working out at the gym and taking Zumba dance classes. He now
looks buff so he decides to apply for a job working as a male dancer at two downtown clubs;
the Foxy Lady and Thunder from Down Under. He estimates the probability he will get a job
offer from Foxy Lady is 0.40, and from Thunder from Down Under it is 0.30. Assuming that
the two job offers are independent of each other, what is the probability that
(a) both clubs offer him a job? (b) he gets at least one offer? (c) he gets no job offer?

7. Suppose that P(A) = 0.30, P(B) = 0.50

(a) Find the probability of A or B if A and B are: (i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent
(b) Find P(B | A), if A and B are independent.

8. Reality TV has a new reality TV series called “Who Wants To Marry a Bigamist”. In the
exciting final episode the bigamist will ask two contestants to marry him. The executives
have determined that there is a 40% chance that Agnes will say yes and a 50% chance Bertha
will say yes. Agnes will be asked first and if she says yes the probability that Bertha will say
yes will drop to 20%. What is the probability at least one of the women will say yes?

9. A quiz contains two questions. 90% of students get the first question correct, 5% get neither
question correct, and 50% get both questions correct. Set up a 2×2 probability table and find
the probability that a randomly selected student
(a) Gets only the first question correct. (b) Gets at least one of the questions correct.
(c) Gets either the 1st or 2nd question correct but not both (ie. gets only one question correct).

1. A: Yes, the probabilities add to one and all are between 0 and 1 B: (a) 0.05 (b) 0.20 (c) 0.55
2. (a) 0.19 (b) 0.64 (c) 0.33/0.64 = 0.52 3. (a) 0.66 (b) 0.42 (c) 0.58
4. (a) 5% (b) 25% (c) 60% 5. (a) 6/50 × 5/49 = 0.0122 (b) 6/50 × 6/50 = 0.0144
6. (a) 0.12 (b) 0.58 (c) 0.42 7. (a) (i) 0.80 (ii) 0.65 (b) P(B | A) = P(B) = 0.50 8. 0.82

Question 1
9. (a) 0.40 (b) 0.95 (c) 0.45 Question 2 Correct Wrong Total
Correct 0.50 0.05 0.55
Wrong 0.40 0.05 0.45
Total 0.90 0.10 1.00

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