Stat 101 Exam 2

1
Important Formulas and Concepts

1 Chapter 8
1.1 Definitions
1. Population
The entire group of individuals or instances about whom we hope to learn.

2. Sample
A (representative) subset of a population, examined in the hope of learning about the
population.

3. Sample Survey
A study that asks questions of a sample drawn from some population in the hope of
learning something about the entire population.

4. Randomization
The best defense against bias is randomization, in which each individual is given a fair,
random chance of selection.

5. Census
A sample that consists of the entire population.

6. Population Parameter
A numerically valued attribute of a model for a population. Example: mean income
of all employed people in the USA

7. Sample statistic
Statistics or sample statistics are values that are calculated for sample data. Example:
mean income of employed people in a representative sample

8. Sampling Frame
A list of individuals from whom the sample is drawn. Individuals who may be in the
population of interest, but who are not in the sampling frame cannot be included in
any sample.

9. Simple Random Sample (SRS)

A SRS of sample size n is a sample in which each set of n elements in the population
has an equal chance of selection.
1
This version: March 10, 2020, by Dale Embers. May not include all things that could possibly be tested
on. To be used as an additional reference to studying all Chapters 8 - 15
10. Stratified Random Sampling
A sampling design in which the population is divided into several subpopulations
(strata) and random samples are then drawn from each stratum. Try to make strata
as homogeneous as possible.

11. Cluster Sampling

Entire groups, or clusters, are chosen at random. Clusters are heterogeneous.

12. Multistage Sampling

Sampling schemes that combine several sampling methods.

13. Systematic sample

A sample drawn by selecting individuals systematically from a sampling frame.

14. Voluntary response bias

Bias introduced to a sample when individuals can choose on their own whether to
participate in the sample.

15. Undercoverage bias

Biases the sample in a way that gives a part of the population less representation in
the sample than it has in the population.

16. Nonresponse bias

Bias introduced when a large fraction of those sampled fails to respond.

17. Response bias

Anything in a survey design that influences responses.

2 Chapter 9
1. Studies

(a) Observational Study

Study based on data in which no manipulation of factors has been employed.
(b) Retrospective Study
Observational study in which subjects are selected and then their previous con-
ditions or behaviors are determined. Based on historical data and memories.
(c) Prospective Study
Observational study in which subjects are followed to observe future outcomes.
Because no treatments are deliberately applied, it is not an experiment.

2. Matching in Studies
In a retrospective of prospective study, participants who are similar in ways not under
study may be matched and then compared with each other on the variables of interest.

3. Experiments
 (a) Factor
Variable whose levels are manipulated by the experimenter.
(b) Response Variable
Variable whose values are compared across different treatments.
(c) Experiment
Manipulates factor levels to create treatments, randomly assigns subjects to these
treatment levels, and then compares the responses of the subject groups across
treatment levels. Tries to assess effects of treatments.
(d) Levels
Specific values that the experimenter chooses for a factor.
(e) Treatment
Process, intervention, or other controlled circumstance applied to randomly as-
signed experimental units.
(f) Block
When groups of experimental units are similar in a way that is not a factor
under study, it is often a good idea to gather them together into blocks and then
randomize the assignment of treatments within each block.

4. Randomization through Random Assignment

An experiment must assign experimental units (individuals) to treatment groups using
some form of randomization.

5. Principles of Experimental Design

(a) Control
Control aspects of the experiment that we know may have an effect on the re-
sponse, but that are not the factors being studied.
(b) Randomize
Randomize subjects to treatments to even out effects that we cannot control.
(c) Replicate
Replicate over as many subjects as possible.
(d) Block
Reduce the effects of identifiable attributes of the subjects that cannot be con-
trolled.

6. Statistically Significant
When an observed difference is too large for us to believe that it is likely to have
occurred naturally, we consider the difference to be statistically significant.

7. Types of Experiments

(a) Completely randomized design (CRD)

All experimental units have an equal chance of receiving any treatment.
 (b) Randomized Block Design (RBD)
Participants are randomly assigned to treatments within each block.
(c) Matched Pair Designg
Participants are paired with similar subjects (often the same subject), one of
the pair is given the treatment, and the difference in the response variables are
compared.

8. Control Treatment
Baseline treatment.

9. Control Group
Experimental units assigned to a baseline treatment level typically either the default
treatment or a placebo treatment. Responses provide a basis for comparison.

10. Blinding
Any individual associated with an experiment who is not aware of how subjects have
been allocated to treatment groups.

11. Single/Double Blind

• Those who could influence the results.

• Those who evaluate the results.

Single Blind: when either of the two above statements is blinded. Double Blind: when
both of the two above statements is blinded.

12. Placebo
A treatment known to have no effect.

13. Placebo Effect

The tendency of human subjects to show a response even when administered a placebo.

14. Potential Problems

(a) Confounding
When the levels of one factor are associated with the levels of another factor in
such a way that their effects cannot be separated, we say that these two factors
are confounded.
(b) Lurking Variable
A variable associated with both y and x that makes it appear that x may be
causing y.

15. In summary, the best experiments are usually 1) Randomized, 2) Comparative, 3)

Double-blind, and 4) Placebo-controlled.
3 Chapter 12 and 13
3.1 Definitions
1. Random Phenomenon
A phenomenon is random if we know what outcomes could happen, but not which
particular values will happen.
2. Trial
A single attempt or realization of a random phenomenon.
3. Outcome
The value measured, observed, or reported for an individual instance of a trial.
4. Event
A collection of outcomes. Usually, we identify events so that we can attach probabilities
to them. Denote events with bold capital letters like A, B, etc.
5. Sample Space
The collection of all possible outcome values. The collection of values in the sample
space has a probability of 1. Denote by S or Ω.
6. Law of Large Numbers (LLN)
This law states that the long-run relative frequency of an event’s occurrence gets closer
and closer to the true relative frequency as the number of trials increases.
7. Independence (informal definition)
2 events are independent if learning that one event occurs does not change the proba-
bility that the other event occurs.
8. Probability
A number between 0 and 1 that reports the likelihood of that event’s occurrence. Write
P(A) for the probability of event A.
9. Empirical Probability
When the probability comes from the long-run relative frequency of the event’s occur-
rence.
10. Theoretical Probability
When the probability comes from a model (such as equally likely outcomes). P (A) =
# outcomes in A divided by # all possible outcomes
11. Personal (or subjective) Probability
When the probability is subjective and represents your personal degree of belief.
12. Legitimate Assignment of Probabilities
An assignment of probabilities to outcomes is legitimate if
• each probability is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1
• the sum of the probabilities = 1
3.2 Rules on Probability
1. For all events A, 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1.

2. Probability Assignment Rule

• P(S) = 1
• The set of all possible outcomes of a trial must have probability = 1.

3. Complement Rule

• Set of outcomes that are not in the event A is the complement AC

• P (AC ) = 1 − P (A) Where AC is the complement of A,
• The probability of an event not occurring is 1 minus the probability that it occurs

4. Addition Rule

• For 2 disjoint events A and B, the probability that one or the other occurs is the
sum of the probability of the two events.
• P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) where A and B are disjoint
• disjoint means mutually exclusive; there are no outcomes in common

5. Multiplication Rule

• For two independent events A and B, the probability that both A and B occur
is the product of the probabilities of the two events.
• P (A and B) = P (A)P (B) where A and B are independent

6. General Addition Rule

For any two events A and B, the probability of A or B is
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A and B).
This rule does NOT require disjoint events.

7. Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of the event B given the event A has occurred is
P (B | A) = P (A and B) .
P (A)

8. General Multiplication Rule

For any two events A and B, the probability of A and B is
P (A and B) = P (A)P (B | A).
This rule does NOT require independence.

9. Independent
Events A and B are independent when P (B | A) = P (B). Note: independent is not
the same as disjoint.
 10. Tree Diagram
A display of conditional events or probabilities that is helpful in thinking through
conditioning.
11. Bayes Rule
P (A|B)P (B)
P (B | A) = P (A|B)P (B)+P (A|BC )P (BC )
.



Since P (A | B)P (B) + P A | BC P BC = P (A) so this may be simplified to read
P (B | A)P (A) = P (A | B)P (B)

3.3 Tree Diagram Example and Interpretations of Every Node

Example Probabilities are Given
P (A and B) = (0.6)(0.8) = 0.48
B
0.8
No
tB
A 0.2
0.6 P (A and Not B) = (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12

No P (Not A and B) = (0.4)(0.2) = 0.08

t
0.4 A B
0.2
No
tB
0.8
P (Not A and Not B) = (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32
Here are the mathematical interpretations of the numbers in the tree diagram:
P (A) = 0.6 P (A and B) = 0.48 P (B |Not A) = 0.2
P (Not A) = 0.4 P (A and Not B) = 0.12 P (Not B|Not A) = 0.8

P (B | A) = 0.8 P (Not A and B) = 0.08

P (Not B|A) = 0.2 P (Not A and Not B) = 0.32
Calculate things like P (A | B) using Bayes Rule:
P(B|A)P(A)
P(A | B) = P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A c )P(Ac )
P(B|A)P(A)
= P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|N otA)P(N otA)
(0.8)(0.6)
= (0.8)(0.6)+(0.2)(0.4)
0.48
= 0.56
= 0.8571.
Calculate things like P (B) using the Multiplication Rule but rearranging it.
P (B and A) = P(B)P(A | B) ⇒ P(BandA)
P(A|B)
= P(B).
Now,
P(B) = P(BandA)
P(A|B)
0.32
= 0.8571 = 0.3734.
4 Chapter 14
4.1 Definitions
1. Binomial Distribution
A sequence of trials has a binomial distribution if

• There are exactly 2 possible outcomes (success and failure)

• Probability of success, p, is constant
• Trials are independent
• There are a fixed number of trials, n.

2. Success/Failure Condition
A Binomial Model is approximately Normal if we expect at least 10 successes and 10
failures, i.e. np ≥ 10 and n(1 − p) ≥ 10.

4.2 Binomial Model:

n

k
• P (X = k) = k
p (1 − p)n−k

• µ = np

p
• σ= np(1 − p)

where
n n!


• k
= k!(n−k)!

• n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · (1)

5 Chapter 15
5.1 Definitions
1. Sampling Distribution
Different random samples give different values of a statistic. Distribution of the statis-
tics over all possible samples is called the sampling distribution. Sampling distribution
model shows the behavior of the statistic over all the possible samples for the same
size n.

2. Sampling Distribution Model

Because we can never see all possible samples, we often use a model as a practical way
of describing the theoretical sampling distribution.
3. Sampling Error
Sample-to-sample variation

4. Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

The sampling distribution model of the sample mean is approximately Normal for
large n, regardless of the distribution of the population as long as the observations are
independent. The larger the sample, the better the approximation will be.

5. Sampling Distribution Model for a Mean

If assumptions of independence and random sampling are met, and the sample size is
large enough, the sampling distribution of the sample mean is modeled by a normal
model with a mean equal to thepopulation mean and has a standard deviation equal
√
to σ/ n. That is X̄ ∼ N µ, √σn
6 Example Problems
1. A healthcare system wants to determine if its patients are being treated with a sufficient
level of care, so they consider a number of sampling methods. Identify each of the
following sample types as Simple Random Sample, Stratified Sample, Cluster Sample,
Multistage Sample, or Convenience Sample.
(a) They randomly select 15 patients from each of the hospitals in the system and
survey them.
(b) They randomly select 10 physicians and survey every patient belonging to that
physician.
(c) They make a list of all the patients in the system and randomly select 200.
2. I decide that I want to know students’ opinions on a variety of issues. Decide which of
the following best describes the issue as Voluntary Response Bias, Nonresponse Bias,
Response Bias, or Undercoverage (choose one for each situation).
(a) I survey students (not anonymously) about whether or not they use illegal drugs.
(b) I ask students to fill out an online survey regarding the use of Blackboard in the
classroom.
(c) I randomly select 300 students from a list of those receiving Pell grants and survey
them regarding financial aid.
3. To test the effect of a medication, 100 volunteers were randomly divided into two
groups. Each person was given a month’s supply of pills. For one group, the pill
contained the medicine, whereas for the other group, the pills contained only inert
ingredients. Participants were not told which type of pill they had. At the end of the
month, a researcher evaluated them to determine if they had improved. The researcher
did not know which of the subjects had the pill with the medicine added. Identify which
of these statements is true.
(a) The group receiving the pill with inert ingredients will not experience the placebo
effect.
(b) This experiment includes blocking.
(c) The number of factors in the experiment is two.
(d) This study is single blind
(e) This study is single blind
(f) The group receiving the medicine is the control group.
4. A veterinarian is studying the effect a diet high in alfalfa may be a cause in horse.
The veterinarian decides to use the following design: identify 30 horses, and divide
them into 3 groups of 10 horses. One group consists of horses in barn stalls, one group
consist of horses in outdoor paddocks, and one group consist of horses in pastures.
Within each group, one horse is randomly assigned to an high alfalfa diet and one is
fed a low alfalfa diet. The study is:
 (a) a randomized block design
(b) a matched pairs design
(c) a completely randomized design

5. A study attempts to compare two sunscreens. Each of 50 subjects with varying skin
complexions will use both sunscreens—Screen A on one side of the body and Screen B
on the other side. For each subject, a coin is tossed to determine which side receives
Screen A and which receives Screen B. Researchers measure the amount of ultraviolet
light exposure over both treated areas for each subject. This is an example of:

(a) a randomized block design

(b) a matched pairs design
(c) a completely randomized design

6. For his Statistics class experiment, researcher J. Gilbert decided to study how parents’
income affects children’s performance on standardized tests like the SAT. He proposed
to collect information from a random sample of test takers and examine the relationship
between parental income and SAT score.

(a) Is this an experiment or an observational study?

(b) If it is a study, is it retrospective or prospective? If it is an experiment, how many
factors are there?
(c) Identify the explanatory variable and response variable.

7. In 2002, the journal Science reported that a study of women in Finland indicated that
having sons shortened the life spans of mothers by about 34 weeks per son, but that
daughters helped to lengthen the mothers’ lives. The data came from church records
from the period 1640 to 1870.

(a) Is this an experiment or an observational study?

(b) If it is a study, is it retrospective or prospective? If it is an experiment, how many
factors are there?
(c) Identify the explanatory variable and response variable.

8. Some people claim they can get relief from migraine headache pain by drinking a large
glass of ice water. Researchers plan to enlist several people who suffer from migraines
in a test. When a participant experiences a migraine headache, he or she will take a
pill that may be a standard pain reliever or a placebo. Half of each group will also
drink ice water. Participants will then report the level of pain relief they experience.

(a) Is this an experiment or an observational study?

(b) If it is a study, is it retrospective or prospective? If it is an experiment, how many
factors are there?
(c) Identify the explanatory variable and response variable.
 9. Athletes who had suffered hamstring injuries were randomly assigned to one of two
exercise programs. Those who engaged in static stretching returned to sports activity
in a mean of 15.2 days faster than those assigned to a program of agility and truck
stabilization exercises.

(a) Is this an experiment or an observational study?

(b) If it is a study, is it retrospective or prospective? If it is an experiment, how many
factors are there?
(c) Identify the explanatory variable and response variable.

10. In a large Introductory Statistics lecture hall, the professor reports that 55% of the
students enrolled have never taken a Calculus course, 32% have taken only one semester
of Calculus, and the rest have taken two or more semesters of Calculus. The professor
randomly assigns students to groups of three to work on a project of the course. What
is the probability that the first group-mate you meet has studied

(a) two or more semesters of Calculus?

(b) some Calculus?
(c) no more than one semester of Calculus?

11. Continuation. What is the probability that of your other two group-mates,

(a) neither has studied Calculus?

(b) both have studied at least one semester of Calculus?
(c) at least one has had more than one semester of Calculus?

12. A certain bowler can bowl a strike 70% of the time. If the bowls are independent,
what’s the probability that she

(a) goes three consecutive frames without a strike?

(b) makes her first strike in the third frame?
(c) has at least one strike in the first three frames?
(d) bowls a perfect game (12 consecutive strikes)?

13. A check of dorms revealed that 38% had refrigerators, 52% had TV’s and 21% had
both a TV and a refrigerator. What’s the probability that a randomly selected dorm
room has:

(a) a TV but no refrigerator

(b) a TV or refrigerator but not both
(c) neither a TV nor a refrigerator
14. We are given information about the Education Level by Country in the below table:
Post Grad College Some HS Primary No Answer Total
China 7 315 671 506 3 1502
France 69 388 766 309 7 1539
India 161 514 622 227 11 1535
UK 58 207 1240 32 20 1557
US 84 486 896 87 4 1557
Total 379 1910 4195 1161 45 7690
Calculate the following probabilities:

(a) P(US)
(b) Probability that a person completed education before college? Do not include
those who did not answer.
(c) Probability that a person is from France or did post graduate study.
(d) Probability that a person is from France and finished primary school.

15. An animal shelter states that it currently has 24 dogs and 18 cats available for adoption.
8 of the dog and 6 of the cats are male. Find the conditional probability of:

(a) pet is male, given that it is a cat

(b) pet is a cat, given that it is female
(c) pet is female, given that it is a dog

16. Followup. The local animal shelter in reported that it currently has 24 dogs and 18
cats available for adoption; 8 of the dogs and 6 of the cats are male. Are being male
and being a dog independent events? Briefy justify your answer.

17. Police setup checkpoints to catch drunk drivers. Based on the initial stop, trained
officers can make the right decision 80% of the time. Suppose a checkpoint is set up at
a time when it is estimated that about 12% of people have been drinking. Questions
to answer:

(a) Suppose a person is stopped and is not drinking. What is the probability that he
is detained for further testing?
(b) What’s the probability that any given driver will be detained?
(c) What’s the probability that a driver who is detained has actually been drinking?
(d) What’s the probability that a driver who was released had actually been drinking?

18. A company’s records indicate that on any given day about 1% of their day-shift employ-
ees and 2% of the night-shift employees will miss work. Sixty percent of the employees
work the day shift. What percent of employees are absent on any given day?

19. We are given the following distribution for X.

 X 3 5 6 8 10
P(X = x) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3

(a) What is the value of the missing probability in the table above?

20. A printing company ships boxes of paper to office stores. In each box, there are 30
reams of paper. However, in every box, they estimate that 2% of the reams of paper
are defective in some way. What is the probability that in a box, there will be exactly
4 reams of paper that need to be shipped back to the printing company? What is the
mean number of reams of paper that need to be shipped back? What is the standard
deviation?

21. The life span of a battery is normally distributed with a mean of 120 hours and a
standard deviation of 15 hours. A random sample of 50 batteries is collected and the
sample mean will be computed.

(a) What is the mean of the sample mean?

(b) What is the standard deviation of the sample mean?
(c) Write down your model.
(d) Estimate the probability that the sample mean is between 105 and 115 hours.
(e) Estimate the probability that the sample mean is more than 122 hours.
(f) Give an interval that will contain the sample mean for 99.7% of samples.
7 Example Solutions
1. (a) Stratified Sample
(b) Cluster Sample
(c) Simple Random Sample

2. (a) Response bias if the students answer and lie. Nonresponse Bias if they do not
respond at all.
(b) Voluntary Response Bias
(c) Undercoverage. This method leaves out a lot students.

3. (a) The group receiving the pill with inert ingredients will not experience the placebo
effect. This is fallse. They are given the placebo to induce the placebo effect so
they can be compared to the control goup.
(b) This experiment includes blocking. This is false. The individuals were not
grouped first by some property or condition.
(c) The number of factors in the experiment is two. This is false. There is one factor,
the medicine, with two levels.
(d) This study is single blind. This is false. Both sets of participants were blinded.
(e) This study is double blind. This is true. Both sets of participants were blinded.
(f) The group receiving the medicine is the control group. This is false, the group
receiving the placebo is the control group.

4. This is a block design, as the horses were separated into groups before the treatments
were applied.

5. This is a matched pairs design. The pairs consist of the two sides of the subjects’
bodies.

6. (a) An observational study because no treatments were imposed.

(b) It is a retrospective study.
(c) Explanatory variable: Parental income. Response variable: SAT score.

7. (a) Observational study.

(b) Retrospective. Records were obtained from 1640 to 1870.
(c) Explanatory Variable: Having a son or a daughter. Response variable: Average
life span of mothers.

8. (a) Experiment
(b) There are 2 factors - pain reliever and water temp. The pain reliever has 2 levels -
pain reliever or placebo. The water temperature has 2 levels - ice water or regular
water. Total, there are 4 treatments.
 (c) Explanatory variable: pain reliever and water temp. Response variable: level of
pain relief.
9. (a) Experiment
(b) There is 1 factor - type of exercise. This factor has 2 levels - static stretching and
trunk stabilization exercises. In total, there are 2 treatments.
(c) Explanatory variable: type of exercise. Response variable: time before the ath-
letes were able to return to sports.
10. We are given that
P(no calculus) = 0.55,
P(1 semester) = 0.32.

(a) P(2 or more) = 1 - P(no calculus) - P(1 semester) = 1-0.55-0.32 = 0.13.

(b) P(some calculus) = P(1 semester or 2 or more) = P(1 semester) + P(2 or more)
= 0.32+0.13 = 0.45.
(c) P(no more than one semester) = P(no calculus or 1 semester) = P(no calculus)
+ P(1 semester) = 0.55+0.32 = 0.87.

11. We have that

P (no calculus) = 0.55,
P (at least 1 semester) = P (some calculus) = 0.45.

(a) P (neither) = P (person 1 no calculus and person 2 no calculus)

= P (no calculus) P (no calculus)
= (0.55)(0.55)
= 0.3025.
(b) P (both) = P (person 1 some calculus and person 2 some calculus)
= P (some calculus) P (some calculus)
= (0.45)(0.45)
= 0.2025.
(c) Option 1:
P (at least one has had more than one semester)
= P (person 1 some calculus and person 2 no calculus OR person 1 no calculus and
person 2 some calculus OR person 1 some calculus and person 2 some calculus)
= P (some calculus)P (no calculus) + P (no calculus)P (some calculus) + P (some
calculus)P (some calculus)
= (0.87)(0.13) + (0.13)(0.87) + (0.13)(0.13)
= 0.2431.
Option 2:
P (at least one has had more than one semester)
= 1 - P (neither)
= 1-0.7569
= 0.2431.
12. Information given in the problem:
P (strike) = 0.7
P (no strike) = 0.3

(a) goes three consecutive frames without a strike?

P (no strike and no strike and no strike) = P (no strike)P (no strike)P (no strike)
= (0.3)(0.3)(0.3)
= (0.3)3
= 0.027
(b) makes her first strike in the third frame?
P (no strike and no strike and strike) = P (no strike)P (no strike)P (strike)
=(0.3)(0.3)(0.7)
= (0.3)2 (0.7)
= 0.063
(c) has at least one strike in the first three frames? P (no strike) P (at least 1 strike
in first 3 frames) = 1- P (no strikes in first 3 frames)
= 1- 0.027
= 0.973
(d) bowls a perfect game (12 consecutive strikes)?
P (12 consecutive strikes) = P (strike)P (strike)· · · P (strike)
=(0.7)(0.7) · · · (0.7)
= (0.7)12
= 0.0138

13. What we know:

• P(TV) = 0.52
• P(Refrigerator) = 0.38
• P(both) = P(TV and Refrigerator) = 0.21

A Venn Diagram (not shown) may help with this problem.

What else we can calculate (may or may not relate to the above questions asked):

• P(TV only) = P(TV) - P(both) = 0.52-0.21 = 0.31

• P(Refrigerator only) = P(Refrigerator) - P(both) = 0.38- 0.21 = 0.17
• P(TV or Refrigerator) = P(TV) + P(Refrigerator) - P(TV and Refrigerator) =
0.52 + 0.38 - 0.21 = 0.69

Answers to questions:

(a) P(TV but no refrigerator) = P(TV only) = 0.31

(b) P(TV or Refrigerator but not both) = P(TV or Refrigerator) - P(both) = 0.69 -
0.21 = 0.48
 OR
P(TV or Refrigerator but not both) = P(TV only) + P(Refrigerator only) = 0.31
+ 0.17 = 0.48
(c) P(neither a TV nor a Refrigerator) = 1 - P( (neither a TV nor a Refrigerator)C )
= 1 - P(TV or Refrigerator) = 1-0.69 = 0.31
OR
P(neither a TV nor a Refrigerator) = 1 - P(TV only) - P(Refrigerator only) -
P(both) = 1-0.31-0.17-0.21=0.31
14. (a) P(US) = 1557/7690= 0.2025
(b) Probability that a person completed education before college? Do not include
those who did not answer.
4195
P(Some HS) + P(Primary) = 7690 + 1161
7690
= 0.6965.
(c) Probability that a person is from France or did post graduate study.
1539 379
P(France or Post Grad) = P(France) + P(Post Grad) - P(both) = 7690 + 7690
−
69
7690
= 0.2404.
(d) Probability that a person is from France and finished primary school.
309
P(France and Primary) = 7690 = 0.0402.
15. A chart may help solve this problem. The below chart shows the initial information
given to us:
Cat Dog Total
Male 6 8
Female
Total 18 24

We can then fill in the missing numbers:

Cat Dog Total
Male 6 8 14
Female 12 16 28
Total 18 24 42

Then we can answer the questions that we’re interested in.

P (M aleandCat) 6/42 1
(a) P(Male | Cat) = P (Cat)
= 18/42
= 3
= 0.3333
P (CatandF emale) 12/42
(b) P(Cat | Female) = P (F emale)
= 28/42
= 0.4286
P (F emaleandDog) 16/42
(c) P(Female | Dog) = P (Dog)
= 24/42
= 0.6667

16. 2 definitions for independence you could use:

• P(A)P(B) =P(AandB)
• P(A | B) = P(A)
Using each definition:
Def1:
24

14
336
P(Dog)P(M ) = 42 42
= 1764 = 0.1905
8
P (Dog and M) = 42 = 0.1905
Def2:
8
P(Dog | M ) = 14 = 0.5714
P(Dog) = 24
42
= 0.5714
Since the above 2 equations are equal using either definition, then yes, they are inde-
pendent.
17. Before these questions are answered, set up a tree diagram. Note that the probability
of being detained depends on whether a “correct” decision has been made. Because of
this, detained and not detained will go on the second branch of the tree.
P (Drink and Detain) = (0.12)(0.8) = 0.096
ain
Det
0.8
No
tD
ink et
0.2 ain
Dr 2
0.1 P (Drink and Not Detain) = (0.12)(0.2) = 0.024
No
tD P(Not Drink and Detain)=(0.88)(0.2)=0.176
0.8 rink ain
8 Det
0.2
No
tD
et
0.8 ain
P(Not Drink and Not Detain)=(0.88)(0.8)=0.704

Here are the interpretations of the numbers in the tree diagram:

P(Drink) = 0.12
P(Not Drink) = 0.88
P(Detain | Drink) = 0.8
P(Not Detain | Drink) = 0.2
P(Detain | Not Drink) = 0.2
P(Not Detain | Not Drink) = 0.8
P(Drink and Detain) = 0.096
P(Drink and Not Detain) =0.024
P(Not Drink and Detain) =0.176
P(Not Drink and Not Detain) =0.704
To answer the questions:

(a) P(Detain | Not Drink) = 0.2.

(b) P(Detain) = P(Detain and Drink) + P(Detain and Not Drink) = 0.096+0.176 =
0.272.
P (DrinkandDetain) 0.096
(c) P(Drink | Detain) = P (detain)
= 0.272
= 0.353.
P (N otDetain|Drink)P (Drink)
(d) P(Drink | Not Detain) = P (N otDetain|Drink)P (Drink)+P (N otDetain|N otDrink)P (N otDrink)
=
(0.2)(0.12)
(0.2)(0.12)+(0.8)(0.88)
= 0.033.

18. Before we answer any questions, it may be useful to create a tree diagram.
 t P (Day and Absent) = (0.6)(0.01) = 0.006
sen
Ab 1
0.0
No
tA
y bs
Da 0.9 ent
9
0.6 P (Day and Not Absent) = (0.6)(0.99) = 0.594

Ni P (Night and Absent) = (0.4)(0.02) = 0.008

gh t
t sen
0.4 Ab 2
0.0
No
tA
bs
0.9 ent
8
P (Night and Not Absent) = (0.4)(0.98) = 0.392

Question to answer: What percent of employees are absent on any given day? Need
to calculate P(Absent). This is the denominator of Bayes Rule.
P (Absent) = P (Absent | Day) P (Day) + P (Absent | Night) P (Night)
= (0.01)(0.6) + (0.02)(0.4)
= 0.014
= 1.4%.

19. (a) What is the value of the missing probability in the table above? The total proba-
bility must equal 1. Therefore, the missing value is then 1 − 0.2 − 0.1 − 0.3 − 0.3 =
0.1.

20. This is an example of a Binomial Model problem. We are given that p = 0.02, n = 30.
We define “success” to be that a ream of paper that needs to be shipped back to the
printing company. The probability that there will be exactly 4 reams of paper that
need to be shipped

back is
30
P(X = 4) = 4 (0.02) (1 − 0.02)30−4
4

= 27405(0.024 )(0.9826 )
= 27405(1.6 × 10−7 )(0.5914)
= 0.0026
You can also calculate this probability on your calculator as binompdf (30, 0.02, 4) =
0.0026.
p
The
p mean is µ = np = 30(0.02) = 0.6. The standard deviation is σ = np(1 − p) =
30(0.02)(0.98) = 0.7668.

21. (a) The mean of x̄ = 120.

√ √
(b) SD(x̄) = σ/ n = 15/ 50 = 2.121.
(c) x̄ ∼ N(120, 2.121).
(d) We want to find P(105 < x̄ < 115). Now, calculate the two z-score values that we
need.
 z1 = 105−120
2.121
= −7.07,
115−120
z2 = 2.121 = −2.36.
So we want to calculate P(−7.07 < Z < −2.36) = normalcdf (−7.07, −2.36) =
0.00914.
(e) We want to find P(x̄ > 122). Now, calculate the z-score value that we need.

z = 122−120
2.121
= 0.94.
So we want to calculate P(Z > 0.94) = normalcdf (0.94, 999) = 0.174.
(f) By the 68-95-99.7 Rule, we know that between µ ± 3σ we have 99.7% of the total
area. However,
√ since we are working with the sample mean, we want to calculate
µ ± 3σ/ n instead. Thus, our interval will be

µ ± 3 √σn = 120 ± 3(2.121)

= 120 ± 6.363
= (113.637, 126.363).