Basic Statistics

Quarter 4 – Module 1
Simple Test of Hypothesis

In this lesson, we are going to learn

how to make inferences and decisions based
on given data not through intuitions, but through
statistical testing.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
 A hypothesis is a concept or idea that you test through research and experiments. In
other words, it is a prediction that is can be tested by research. Most researchers come up with
a hypothesis statement at the beginning of the study.

Hypothesis testing is the process of making an inference or generalization on a

population based on the results of the study or samples.

EXAMPLE :

You want to know if male students really perform better than female students in
Mathematics. But you don’t have a way of reaching all males and females to compare their
grades, you don’t have the resources to go out and gather all the necessary data in order to verify
your theory. When problems like these arise, then you can just get a representative sample of
population through the sample techniques. Then make an inference or generalization on the
population based on the results of your study or sample.

STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS

Statistical hypothesis is a guess or prediction made by a researcher regarding the

possible outcome of the study.
EXAMPLE :
You saw two beautiful young ladies in a restaurant. You say that the entire family might
be all good-looking too. By then you are already formulating a hypothesis – a statistical
hypothesis.

1. Null hypothesis –is the hypothesis to be tested which one hopes to reject. It
shows equality or no significant difference or relationship between variables.
It is represented by the symbol Ho.
2. Alternative hypothesis – generally represents the idea which the researcher
want to prove. It is represented by Ha.

In your 9th grade, you will be starting with your research (as a requirement in your SSC
curriculum) and in your 10th grade you will be conducting and accomplishing your research
“book”. This lesson would be of help for you as we go on.

In doing a research, the first thing you should have is a research problem. From there, you
can formulate your null and alternative hypotheses.

EXAMPLE :
Is there a significant difference between the performance of the first-born children and the
last-born children ?
 In this problem we are comparing the performance in Mathematics of two groups namely :
a. the first-born children
b. the last-born children

Since the null hypothesis always shows non-significance of difference between the groups
being compared, then it should be stated in the following manner :
Ho : There is no significant difference in the performance in mathematics between the
first-born and last-born children.

After stating the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis can be formulated. It should be
the opposite of the null hypothesis. In the above problem, the alternative hypothesis should be
stated as follows :
Ha : There is a significant difference in the performance in mathematics between the first-
born and last-born children.

Stating the null hypothesis is not so much of a problem, since we just have to express that
the groups being compared are equal or have no difference at all. But in the case of alternative
hypothesis, we have to consider 3 things :
1. there is a difference between the groups being compared.
2. one group is superior than the other.
3. one group is inferior than the other.

LET’S DO THIS

Direction : Formulate the null hypothesis (Ho) and alternative hypothesis (Ha)
from the following :

1. Compare the Baygon mosquito repellent and the mango leaves extract
repellent.
2. Compare glue from Chico sap and Elmer’s Glue.
3. Compare pasteurized milk from Jackfruit seeds and Soya milk.
4. Compare anti-aging cream from cabbage and Olay face cream.
5. Compare Paper plate from Paragis and commercial paper plate.

The manner in which the alternative hypothesis is stated determines the type of hypothesis
test to be used. If the null hypothesis is rejected, the alternative hypothesis is accepted and if the
null hypothesis is accepted, it follows that the alternative hypothesis is rejected. For this reason,
all the possible values of the population parameter which are not included in the null hypothesis
should be included in the alternative hypothesis.

Rejection of the null hypothesis means it is wrong, while acceptance of the null hypothesis
does not mean it is true. It means that we do not have enough evidence to reject it. We may have
an insufficient number of samples or there is an error in sampling or some restrictions or the test
used were not followed.
HOW DO WE KNOW IF THE HYPOTHESIS IS ACCEPTED or REJECTED ?

We need to test the hypothesis. To test the hypothesis, we may use a one-tailed or two-tailed
test depending on the alternative hypothesis.

TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING :

1. One-tailed test – is a directional test with the region of rejection lying on either left or right
tail of the normal curve.

a. Right-directional test – is that which the region of rejection is on the right tail. It is used
when the alternative hypothesis uses comparatives such as greater than, higher than, better than,
superior to, exceeds, etc.

acceptance region rejection region

b. Left – directional test – has its region of rejection on the left tail. It is used when the
alternative hypothesis uses comparatives such as less than, smaller than, inferior to, lower than,
below, etc..

Rejection region Acceptance region

2. two-tailed test - is a non-directional test with the region of rejection lying on both tails of the
normal curve. It is used when the alternative hypothesis uses words such as not equal to,
significantly different , etc..

Rejection region acceptance rejection region

region

EXAMPLE :

Research Problem : Performance in Mathematics of the first-born and the last-born

children.
If the researcher feels that the first-born children perform better in Mathematics than the
last-born children , then the null and alternative hypotheses coulb be stated as follows :
Ho : The first-born children perform equally well in Mathematics as the
last-born children.
Ha : The first-born children perform better in Mathematics than the last-
born children.

Notice that the null hypothesis implies that the first-born children’s performance in Mathematics
is just the same as the performance of the last-born. In other words, their performance in
Mathematics are equal.
This kind of alternative hypothesis requires a one-tailed directional hypothesis test. The
advantage of this test over the non-directional test is that, in case the null hypothesis is rejected ,
we know which one two groups is superior to the other.

If the researcher just wants to know if there is a difference in their performance , then the null
and the alternative hypotheses could be stated as :

Ho : There is no significant difference in the performance in Mathematics between the first-

born and the last-born children.
Ha : There is no significant difference in the performance in Mathematics between the first-
born and the last-born children.

In this example, the alternative hypothesis required a two-tailed or a non-directional

hypothesis test. The disadvantage of this is that, in case the null hypothesis is rejected, we will
be able to tell which group performs better. The only information we can get is that they perform
differently in Mathematics.

Other Examples :
1. In the vaccination area, the average waiting time for an individual to be vaccinated is 20
minutes. Additional individuals were added and now the medical team wants to know if the
average waiting time has been reduced.

Ho : The average waiting time had not been reduced or the average waiting
time is equal to 20 minutes.
Ha : The average waiting time had been reduces, or the average waiting time
is less than 20 minutes.

This kind of alternative hypothesis shows a one-tailed, left directional hypothesis test.

2. A teacher wants to know if there is a significant difference in the

performance in Statistics between his morning and afternoon classes.

Ho : There is no significant difference in the performance in Statistics

between the morning and that of the afternoon class.
Ha : There is a significant difference in the performance in Statistics
between the morning and that of the afternoon class.

This kind of alternative hypothesis required a two-tailed or non-directional hypothesis

testing since the teacher wants to know if there is significant difference between the performance
of the two groups.

If you will go over the research of our former SSC students (at the school library), you will
notice that almost all of them use the two-tailed or non-directional hypothesis testing.

LET’S DO THIS

TASK : Make 5 examples (state the Ho and the Ha) of two-tailed hypothesis
test.

To avoid confusion in writing the hypothesis, just remember the following :

1. The null hypothesis Ho always expresses equality. (=)

2. The alternative hypothesis Ha can be expressed in the form which involves ˃,
˂ , or ≠
 Basic Statistics
Quarter 4 – Module 2
Statistical Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Level of Significance

We always make decision about the

population, based on the samples and the result of
the test on Ho. Since we use samples to make an
inference about the population, we sometimes
commit errors.

STATISTICAL ERRORS IN
HYPOTHESIS TESTING

There are two types of possible errors which may be committed in hypothesis testing, the Type I
and the Type II errors.

EXAMPLE :
Carla has 2 suitors. Paulo and Jake. Paulo showers her with gifts, takes her out every
weekend for lunch and is always by her side. Jake on the other hand, visits her once in a while,
gives her gifts only when there are special occasions and never brought her out to dine. Carla’s
conservative family believes that Jake is a good choice, however, she feels otherwise.

If Carla rejects Jake when he is really a good man, then she commits a Type I
 error.
However, if Carla accepts Jake when in fact he is not good, she commits Type II
error.

Type I Error is the error committed when the null hypothesis is rejected when in
fact it is true and the alternative hypothesis is false.
Type II Error is the error committed when the null hypothesis is accepted when in fact it is
false and the alternative hypothesis is true.

If Ho is true and you rejected it ,then you commit Type I error.

If Ha is false and you accepted it, then you commit Type II error.

LET’S DO THIS

TASK : Give 5 examples/situation showing Type I and Type II errors.

LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE OF A TEST

The probability of committing Type I error is designated by alpha

While the probability of committing a Type II error is designated by beta (ß)
Alpha is the size of the rejection region, while beta is the size of acceptance region. The most
popular level of significance of alpha are 0.01 and 0.05 levels. If we want a smaller probability
of committing a Type I error, we can set alpha at values smaller than 0.01.
An alpha = 0.05 means that when a different set of samples was taken from the same
population, the probability of getting result which is the same as the one presently under study is
95% and the probability of getting a different result is 5%. A 5% significance level means that
we can accept about 5 chances in 100 that we could reject the null hypothesis when it should be
accepted. Furthermore, a 5% significance level implies that we are 95% confident that we have
made the right decision. The same argument follows for alpha = 0.01.

When Ho is rejected at alpha = 0.05, the result is said to be significant. When it is rejected at
= 0.01, the result is said to be highly significant.

THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE

 The significance level of an event (such as a statistical test) is the probability that the
event could have occurred by chance. If the level is quite low, that is, the probability of
occurring by chance is quite small, we say the event is significant.
The level of significance is set at the beginning of the test so that the researcher will not
be tempted to change it when the result does not conform with his desired outcome.

STEPS IN TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS

1. Formulate Ho and Ha.
2. Set the level of significance
Then determine the type of hypothesis test and the tabular or p-value (given
from the table)
3. Set the criterion (when to reject Ho). Determine and compute for the test
statistic.
4. Make your decision.
5. Formulate your conclusion.

The criterion in Step 3 is your guide in making a decision. It may be any of the following
statements :
A. Using tabular value of Z.
1. One-tailed test (right directional)
“Reject Ho if Z computed is greater than or equal to Z tabular”.
2. One–tailed test (left directional)
“Reject Ho if Z computed is less than or equal to Z tabular”
3. Two-tailed test (Z computed is positive)
“ Reject Ho if Z computed is greater than or equal to Z tabular.”
4. Two-tailed test (Z computed is negative)
“ Reject Ho if Z computed is less than or equal to Z tabular”.

A Z-table is used to facilitate the work on hypothesis testing. These values can
be obtained using the table of the areas under the normal curve.

Type (alpha) 0.025 0.01 0.05

one-tailed ± 1.96 ± 2.33 ± 1.65
two-tailed ± 2.33 ± 2.58 ± 1.96

Using the p-value

Reject Ho if the probability is less than or equal to
You can search the table of the p-value via goggle.