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05 Lecture4 - Estimation

This document discusses statistical estimation and inference. It explains that inferential statistics allows researchers to generalize findings from a sample to the larger population. There are two main ways to make inferences: point estimation and interval estimation. Point estimates provide a single value to estimate an unknown parameter, while interval estimates provide a range of plausible values for the parameter. The document outlines key terminology like parameters, statistics, and sampling distributions. It also explains how to calculate point estimates, confidence intervals, and how factors like sample size and distribution affect statistical inference.

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Lakshmi Priya B
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
127 views

05 Lecture4 - Estimation

This document discusses statistical estimation and inference. It explains that inferential statistics allows researchers to generalize findings from a sample to the larger population. There are two main ways to make inferences: point estimation and interval estimation. Point estimates provide a single value to estimate an unknown parameter, while interval estimates provide a range of plausible values for the parameter. The document outlines key terminology like parameters, statistics, and sampling distributions. It also explains how to calculate point estimates, confidence intervals, and how factors like sample size and distribution affect statistical inference.

Uploaded by

Lakshmi Priya B
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Biostatistics

Statistical Estimation

Dr Remya.G
Statistics
\][ STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS

UNIVERIATE ?
MULTIVARIATE DESCRIPTIVE INFERENTIALL
?

GRAPHICAL Estimation Hypothesis


NUMERICAL
testing

Point Interval
estimate estimate Univariate
Multivariate
Inferential statistics

The part of statistics that allows researchers


to generalize their findings to a larger
population beyond data from the sample
collected.
Two ways to make inference

– Estimation of parameters
* Point Estimation
* Intervals Estimation
– Hypothesis Testing
Basic terminology
• Parameter –the numbers that describe the
charactreistics of the population(mean, sd,
varience etc)

• Statistic- The numbers that describe


characteristics of scores in the sample (mean,
variance, s.d., correlation coefficient,etc .)
Statistic Parameter

Mean: X _
Standard
deviation: s __

Proportion: p _
from entire
from sample
population
Basic Logic
• Information from POPULATION
samples is used to
estimate information
about the population. SAMPLE
• Statistics are used to
estimate parameters.
PARAMETER

STATISTIC
Estimation

The process by which one makes inferences


about a population, based on information
obtained from a sample.

Point estimate
Interval estimate
Point estimate
• Point estimates are single points that estimates
parameter directly which serve as a "best guess" or "best
estimate" of an unknown population parameter

• sample proportion pˆ (“p hat”) is the point estimate of p

• sample mean x (“x bar”) is the point estimate of μ

• sample standard deviation s is the point estimate of σ


Problem

• iIn a health survey of 55 school boys,it was


found that the mean hemoglobin level was
10.2 g per 100 ml with a standard deviation of
2.1.Estimate the mean hemoglobin level of
the population of such school boys.

Point estimate of the population mean is 10.2


Disadvantages of point estimates
Point estimate do not provide
information about sample to sample
variability

How precise is x as an estimate of μ

How much can we expect x vary from


μ
Sampling distribution of the mean

X X X
Sampling Distribution
• Sampling Distribution: A theoretical distribution
that shows the frequency of occurrence of values
of some statistic computed for all possible
samples of size N drawn from some population.

• Sampling Distribution of the Mean: A theoretical


distribution of the frequency of occurrence of
values of the mean computed for all possible
samples of size N from a population
sampling distribution as N- increases Mean
Central Limit Theorem
States that the sampling distribution of means, for
samples of 30 or more:
– Is normally distributed (regardless of the shape of the
population from which the samples were drawn)
– Has a mean equal to the population mean, “mu” regardless
of the shape population or of the size of the sample
– Has a standard deviation--the standard error of the mean--
equal to the population standard deviation divided by the
square root of the sample size

Square
root law
Confidence interval

CI is the probability that the interval


computed from the sample data includes
the population parameter of interest
FACTORS AFFECTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Distribution of Means and Standard Error of
the Means

-3sem -2sem -1sem u +1sem +2sem +3sem


mu

Population mean
Confidence interval
Confidence limits
• The α (“alpha”) level represents the “lack of
confidence”
• (1−α)100% represent the confidence level of a
confidence interval

• Confidence interval =

• z1-α/2 instead of z1-α in this formula is because the


random error (imprecision) is split between right
and left tail
Z values for different confidence level

Area under the curve


Z table 2 tailed
Second decimal places

Area under the curve


1.96=1.9+0.06
Process for Constructing Confidence
Intervals
• Compute the sample statistic (e.g. a mean)
• Compute the standard error of the mean
• Make a decision about level of confidence that is
desired (usually 95% or 99%)
• Find tabled value for 95% or 99% confidence
interval
• Multiply standard error of the mean by the tabled
value
• Form interval by adding and subtracting
calculated value to and from the mean
Problems
• iIn a health survey of 55 school boys,it was found that
the mean hemoglobin level was 10.2 g per 100 ml with a
standard deviation of 2.1.Estimate the mean
hemoglobin level of the population of such school boys.
Problems
• iIn a health survey of 55 school boys,it was found
that the mean hemoglobin level was 10.2 g per 100
ml with a standard deviation of 2.1.Estimate the
mean hemoglobin level of the population of such
school boys.
X =10.2 s=2.1
SE= =0.283
95% CI= 10.2-1.96 x 0.283 to 10.2+ 1.96 x 0.283
=9.6 to 10.75
99% CI= 9.47 to 10.93
Problem
• In a survey on hearing level of schoolchildren
with normal hearing it was found that in the
frequency 500 cycles per second,62 children
tested in the sound proof room had a mean
hearing threshold of 15.5 db with a standard
deviation of 6.5.Another 76 comparable
children who were tested in the field had a
mean threshold of 20 db with a standard
deviation of 7.1.what is the 95% confidence
interval for the difference in mean.
Here 2 independent samples,sound proof room tested and
field tested sample given

SE of difference in means = Pooled SD x sqrt [1/ n1 + 1 / n2 ]

The confidence interval of difference in means =difference in


means +/_ 1.96 SE of difference in means
sqrt [ s21 / n1 + s22 / n2 ]

= 4.5-1.96x1.17 to 4.5+1.96x1.17= 2.21 to 6.79


Problemm
• In an otological examination of school children
out of 146 children examined 21 were found
to have otological abnormalities,Find the 99%
confidence interval for the proportion of
children with otological abnormalities.
Answer
• p=21 x 100/146 = 14.4%
• q= 85.3
• 99% CI= p +/_2.57 SE of proportion
• SE of proportion = √pq/n
Problem
• Find the best estimate of the mean and 95%
CI of the mean using the data
Sl no Protein value
1 6
2 7
3 8
4 6
5 8
6 7
7 6
8 7
9 8
10 6
• Best estimate is the mean of sample= 6.9

• Interval estimate -95% CI= x +/- t0.05 SE of x

t0.05 is found from t table with df= 9


• In case If 2 independent sample is given with
sample size less than 30 and difference in CI
to be found
• CI=difference in means +/_ t0.05 SE of
difference in means
t0.05 found from the t table with df = n1+n2-2
SE of difference in means = use n-1 in the
equation for pooled sd
T table
Thank you

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