Journal of Risk Research

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Pandemic democracy: elections and COVID-19

Todd Landman & Luca Di Gennaro Splendore

To cite this article: Todd Landman & Luca Di Gennaro Splendore (2020) Pandemic
democracy: elections and COVID-19, Journal of Risk Research, 23:7-8, 1060-1066, DOI:
10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003

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JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
2020, VOL. 23, NOS. 7–8, 1060–1066
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003

Pandemic democracy: elections and COVID-19

Todd Landmana and Luca Di Gennaro Splendoreb
a
School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom;
b
Institute for Tourism Studies, Ħal Luqa, Malta

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

This article provides an initial assessment of the many risks posed by Received 1 May 2020
the COVID-19 pandemic on the conduct of genuine and transparent Accepted 1 May 2020
elections in the world. It begins with explaining why elections are a vital
KEYWORDS
part of democracy, and then using the notion of the electoral cycle,
Democracy; elections;
constructs a risk matrix that assesses the relative impact and likelihood electoral cycle; electoral
of risks to the cycle, as well as proposes a number of potential mitiga- risk; COVID-19
tions to these risks. The variety and number of elections, dimensions of
the electoral cycle that can be disrupted, and the need for solutions
raises significant questions about the future of democracy itself.

Introduction
On 7 April 2020, the state of Wisconsin held its primary election in the run up to the November
Presidential Elections in the United States. The primary was held at a time when the global pan-
demic COVID-19 was on its upward trajectory in the US, where cases of infection and death
were increasing at a dramatic rate, most notably in New York City, the hardest hit region in the
country. The conduct of the primary was hotly contested across the political spectrum, as signifi-
cant concerns were raised about the health risks to voters, the conduct of the election using
traditional ballot paper methods of voting, and the possibility of biased results that would com-
promise the ability for the state to guarantee a genuine and transparent election.
In contrast to Wisconsin, 14 other states postponed their primaries: Alaska, Connecticut,
Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, and Wyoming, as well as Puerto Rico. Outside the United States, The Republic of
Korea voted on April 15 and set out various measures so that voters were able to participate in
the election without safety concerns, where a turnout of more than 66% was the highest in the
last three decades. In Mali, first round elections were held on 29 March, the day its first corona-
virus death was announced with very low turnout and its second-round was held on 19 April.
France cancelled its second round of local elections due to be held on 29 March, and turnout in
the first round on March 22 was much lower than in the previous election.
These different approaches to managing elections during a pandemic raise a number of ques-
tions about the risks to democracy in the presence of an external threat of the kind the world
has experienced with the spread of COVID-19, and join a wide range of questions concerning
risk, democracy, and public participation (see, e.g. Webler and Tuler 2018). In this article, we
argue that the COVID-19 pandemic poses significant risks to the ability for countries to

CONTACT Todd Landman [email protected] Faculty of Social Sciences, School of Politics and
International Relations, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom.
ß 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
 JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 1061

Table 1. Elections during COVID-19, March–May 2020.

Country Type of election Date of election
Israel Parliamentary elections 2 March 2020
Taiwan Kuomintang Chairperson election 7 March 2020
France Local elections 15 March 2020a
Germany Local elections (Bavaria) 15 March 2020
Moldova Local elections (H^ancesti) 15 March 2020
Dominican Republic Municipal elections 15 March 2020
United States Primaries (Arizona, Florida, Illinois) 17 March 2020
Vanuatu General elections 19 March 2020
Zimbabwe Municipal elections 14-22 March 2020
Poland By-election 22 March 2020
Guinea Constitutional referendum 22 March 2020
Canada Shoal Lake 39 council elections 26 March 2020
Mali General elections 29 March 2020
Australia Local elections (Queenstown) 29 March 2020
Switzerland Local elections (Luzern) 29 March 2020
United States Presidential primary (Wisconsin) 7 April 2020a
South Korea Legislative elections 15 April 2020
Russian Federation Referendum 22 April 2020b
Chile Referendum 26 April 2020b
Kazakhstan Kazakh House of Representatives 30 April 2020
Bolivia Chamber of Deputies, Senate, Referendum 3 May 2020b
Source: Election Guide, available at http://www.electionguide.org/digest/post/17597/
a
Partially postponed (14 states in the US and Puerto Rico postponed primary elections)
b
Postponed

guarantee genuine and transparent elections, and that without well-considered and appropriate
measures, the conduct of elections may have significant impact on both public health protection
and electoral integrity. We illustrate how the pandemic may affect critical elements that consti-
tute the electoral cycle and consider different measures to mitigate the electoral risks from the
pandemic, including cancellation, postponement, postal voting, and electronic voting.

Elections and democracy

Elections are a mainstay feature and ‘basic predicate’ of democracy (Ginsburg and Huq 2018),
which provide the primary mechanism through which political leaders are chosen and held to
account and through which individuals participate in the governance of their country (see Dahl
1971; Lijphart 1999; Lindberg 2006, Landman 2013; Webler and Tuler 2018; Pzreworski 2019).
The ability for countries to conduct elections is further bolstered by a robust regime of human
rights protection; rights such as freedom of movement, freedom of assembly, freedom of associ-
ation, and freedom of speech (Dahl 1971; Landman 2013).1 Elections aggregate citizen interests
and mediate their relationship to government across several different dimensions: (1) the elect-
oral unit (local, regional, and national), (2) the branch of government (executive and legislature,
which can be bicameral or unicameral), and (3) the timing and type of elections (mid-term, pri-
mary, and general). The rise in the number of democracies, despite a recent backslide (see Chu
et al. 2020), over the ‘third’ and ‘fourth’ waves of democracy since the 1970s (Huntington 1991;
Doorenspleet 2005; Landman 2013) means that any given year has seen a very large number of
elections across all continents of the world, and as the pandemic runs its course, political leaders
will need to focus on measures that mitigate the worst and most probable risks facing
these processes.
According to the latest figures for 2020, 28 countries have had national elections in which
more than 88 million people have voted, while at the height of the pandemic between March
and May 2020 there have been 22 elections scheduled (see Table 1). Between April and October
2020, the world is scheduled to have more than 30 national elections, and many more elections
at the local and state level,2 while the United States Presidential Elections are scheduled to be
1062 T. LANDMAN AND L. D. G. SPLENDORE

held on 3 November 2020, when in addition to the executive, all seats in the House of
Representatives and two-thirds of seats in the Senate will be contested. While some elections are
scheduled to take place as the pandemic reaches its peak in many countries, the measures to
manage the worst risks during the subsidence of the virus will continue to have widespread
impact on subsequent elections around the world.

COVID-19, government response, and the electoral cycle

The January outbreak and subsequent global spread of the coronavirus pandemic has claimed a
significant number of lives across the world with varying degrees of severity and prevalence.
Data collected by the Centre for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University,
for example, have tracked the time-series and cross-national spread of reported cases, deaths,
and recoveries.3 Government responses to the pandemic tracked, for example, by the Blavatnik
School of Government at Oxford University, include lockdowns restricting freedom of movement,
a variety of social distancing measures to reduce community transmission, and severe restrictions
on economic freedom, business operations, and other organizational activity;4 the combination
of which may have significant implications for the conduct of genuine elections for the foresee-
able future. Stay at home measures have reduced productivity, led to stock market convulsions,
consumer stockpiling, rising levels of unemployment,5 disproportionate impact on vulnerable
populations and minority communities,6 and some instances of civil unrest (e.g. in Michigan,
Virginia, Colorado, parts of South Africa, and in certain suburbs of Paris).7
Mainstream media reporting, social media commentary, and ‘fake news’ have fuelled a large
number of conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, debates about ‘flattening the curve’8
through tough measures, and pleas from national health services for personal protective equip-
ment (PPE),9 rapid development of a vaccine,10 and the deployment of emergency testing sites
to manage the worst periods of the pandemic.11 Travel restrictions imposed during the crisis
have affected 100 countries and any relaxation in any of these measures has varied according to
the vagaries of the pandemic and the national political contexts in which it spreads. The inter-
sections between scientific debate and guidance, public awareness and acceptance of the pan-
demic, and the trade-off between concerns over public health and economic sustainability have
affected government consideration for so-called ‘exit-strategies’ from life under lockdown.12
The spread of the virus and various government responses may have a significant impact on
what is known as the electoral cycle, or the set of steps and processes involved in the conduct of
elections. The electoral cycle involves a number of elements relating to: (1) the pre-electoral
period (training, information, and voter registration), (2) the electoral period (nominations, cam-
paigns, voting, and results), and (3) the post-electoral period (review, reform, and strategies).13
Under more normal circumstances, these elements should be in place to provide the appropriate
processes, provide opportunities for voters to inform themselves, and to conduct elections in
ways that allow for the maximisation of democratic participation and for the arrival at trusted
and legitimate results.
There are several ways in which the pandemic and government response can affect any one
of these processes. First, the virus itself could discourage voters from casting their votes and
affect overall levels of turnout. Voter turnout is seen by many as a crucial factor underpinning
the legitimacy of an election, providing electoral mandates to leaders, and as a barometer for
the health of democracy in general. Mature democracies have been experiencing a secular
decline in voter turnout over the last several decades, a trend which may well worsen as a result
of the pandemic in these democracies, as well as affecting newer democracies around the world.
Second, the consequences of formal postponement varies by regime type. For example, in full
or ‘flawed’ democracies (The Economist Intelligence Unit 2019),14 postponement can lead to
intensifying polemics, e.g. in US, France, Italy, and Poland. In the US, the outbreak has plunged
 JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 1063

Table 2. Electoral cycle risk matrix.

Electoral cycle Risk Impact Likelihood Possible mitigations
Pre-electoral period
Planning Limited potential for Low High On-line meetings for planning
physical meetings
Training Limited potential for Low High On-line training
physical training
Information Limited leafletting Low High On-line messaging, social media,
news media (restricted)
Registration Limited access to Medium High One-line and postal registration
registration offices
Electoral period
Nomination Disruption to primaries High High Postal voting On-line voting Hybrid
models of voting
Campaign Limited physical High High On-line campaigning Paid media
campaigning and party advertisements One-line
conventions conventions
Voting Limited potential for High High Postal voting On-line voting Hybrid
physical voting models of voting
Results Disrupted vote counts High High Electronic voting integrity Postal
and processing vote verification Physical/virtual
vote tallies
Post-electoral period
Review Limited potential for Low High On-line review meetings and
physical meetings stakeholder interviews On-line
documentation archives
Strategy Limited potential for Low High On-line meetings and stakeholder
physical meetings strategy sessions On-line
documentation archives
Reform Limited potential for Low High On-line reform meetings and
physical meetings stakeholder consultations One-
line legislative drafting and
passage; virtual parliaments
Source: compiled by the authors, using the electoral cycle model: https://aceproject.org/electoral-advice/electoral-assistance/
electoral-cycle

the 2020 political campaign calendar into uncertainty. The discussion on alternative voting meth-
ods has become a partisan political dispute. In hybrid systems with some presence of electoral
processes (Levitsky and Way 2010), postponement can lead to increased political uncertainty and
an undermining of the rule of law. In Bolivia the pandemic emergency overlaps with the political
crisis triggered after the controversial elections held in October 2019 (Human Rights Watch
2020). On 21 March the planned elections for 3 May were postponed. The electoral administra-
tion body sent parliament a proposal for the new elections to take place between 7 June and 6
September, which will decide on the new date when confinement measures are lifted. In elected
authoritarian regimes (Schedler 2006; Levitsky and Way 2010), postponement can create a power
vacuum, abuse of power, and the abuse of state of emergency measures, which further consoli-
date authoritarian rule, undermine the rule of law, and further threaten the protection of human
rights (e.g. as has occurred in Hungary, where a slate of authoritarian measures have been
passed under the premiership of Victor Orban).15
Third, many different elements in the electoral cycle may be affected. Voting operations on
Election Day and campaigns in the run up to an election can be disrupted. Already, in the
United States, the Biden campaign is appealing to voters remotely, while the national party
conventions will be unlikely to take place in their normal format.16 Training and voter
registration can be affected, as has been in the case in the Wisconsin primary. There is also
speculation that the November Presidential Elections could be postponed, as the Republicans
under the leadership of President Donald Trump weigh up the costs and benefits of staging the
election on time.17
1064 T. LANDMAN AND L. D. G. SPLENDORE

Mitigating the risk of electoral disruption

Talking a formal risk-based approach to the disruption of the electoral cycle demonstrates that
there are significant risks with a high likelihood of causing disruption. Table 2 is a risk matrix
that sets out the different elements of the electoral cycle and the possible mitigations that could
be implemented to reduce these risks. The table shows that the electoral period has risks with
the highest impact and highest likelihood for candidate nomination processes, campaigning, vot-
ing, and tallying results. For the pre-electoral and post-electoral periods, there is less impact of
the risks, but high likelihood. The final column of mitigations shows that there are a number of
on-line and pragmatic ways to address these risks. For the pre-electoral period, it is possible to
have on-line planning, training, information, and registration processes developed. For the elect-
oral period, there are on-line, postal, and hybrid solutions available, while for the post-electoral
period, there are on-line solutions and ‘virtual parliament’ solutions available for reviews, stake-
holder engagement, and the promulgation of electoral reform legislation. Remote working and
on-line solutions that have been implemented quickly during the pandemic by business organi-
sations, universities, and other organisations can be adapted for the electoral cycle.
These and other challenges require a set of solutions that will need to be in place relatively
quickly as the uncertainty of the virus continues. There are on-line and mail solutions for training,
registration, and voting itself, each of which has a number of problems that need to be overcome,
and that will be subject to the influence of political self-interest from political parties and candi-
dates. Any on-line solution faces problems relating to information security, the threat of cyber
attacks, and hacking more generally, as well as questions over the integrity of the results, as was
seen during the Iowa caucuses before COVID-19. Postal voting, while used for absentee ballots, has
become highly contentious in the US owing to the belief that such a system may be biased to par-
ticular party affiliations. Online and mail voting can generate mistrust in elections and the rejection
of an unfavourable outcome (in these systems, the full secrecy of the vote is not guaranteed).
Procedures for “early voting” in South Korea, as well as many precautionary measures, pro-
vided conditions in which the turnout reached 66% in 2020 (58% in 2016). The turnout of early
voting in 2020 hit 26% (12% in 2016). A special “code of conduct of voters” was implemented
due to COVID-19 (i.e. Spinelli 2020). The system itself may have generated new voters by provid-
ing different ways of voting, while also creating some form of voting substitution effects. Every
context is unique, the South Korean case certainly cannot be generalised all over the world.
Nevertheless it appears that a mixed voting possibility led to higher turnout.
These legal and procedural provisions to facilitate inclusion and participation of voters were
already part of the South Korean electoral framework. Nevertheless in Poland, the lack of mul-
tiple modes of voting created many political disputes. Under virulent political polemics on April
6, the Parliament voted to conduct the next presidential elections completely through postal vot-
ing or to delay the date of the election, if necessary.18 Both decisions by parliament required
approval from the Senate.
Quite apart from the technical details relating to the conduct of genuine and transparent
elections, there are additional concerns over public health and public security that require more
holistic solutions and inter-agency cooperation at levels that have not been present in pre-
COVID-19 elections. The recent popular (and in some cases armed) protests against stay at home
restrictions in Michigan and other states illustrate this intersection of concerns that may well
affect forthcoming elections.

Conclusion
This brief overview of the many challenges for the conduct of elections during the time of the
pandemic shows that there remain many unknowns as the pandemic progresses and as govern-
ments respond. There are clearly no single or simple solutions to the election quandaries we set
 JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH 1065

out here; however, given the number of elections, some of which are very significant for global polit-
ics, due to take place under the shadow of COVID-19, make it imperative that solutions need to be
found, tested, and legitimacy secured if democratic institutions and accountability are not to be dam-
aged. All electoral authorities need to focus on an election risk management plan in case of an out-
break. In the medium term perspective, every country needs a backup plan to hold the election. A
solid electoral framework needs to contemplate pandemic solutions. It is crucial to avoid delaying the
election and to incentivize participation under an outbreak.
For the electoral period, Table 2 suggests a mixed system of voting as a potential solution.
Such a mixed system of voting may include, for example, (1) postal voting for out-of-country
people and those who are over 65, (2) online voting for people with certificate electronic signa-
ture, and (3) standard voting in polling stations under strict safety measures for the rest of peo-
ple (i.e. polling stations disinfection, social distancing, compulsory masks for voters and
temperature checking upon arrival). The trade-off whether to hold or postpone scheduled elec-
tions is complex, resulting in controversies in either case. Introducing reforms to the electoral
law shortly ahead of the election is not compatible with the principles of stability of electoral
legislation and legal certainty (OSCE 2020). Postponement or electoral law reforms need a high
level of consensus among political parties, civil society and all stakeholders.
Given the centrality of elections to democracy and the large number of elections scheduled
around the world during the pandemic, it is vital that solutions for the conduct of genuine and
transparent are found quickly. Failure to find suitable and effective solutions can undermine the
health of democracy and compromise the fundamental human rights to vote and participate in
the governance of a country.

Notes
1. In addition to these civil and political rights, enshrined most notably in the 1948 Universal Declaration of
Human Rights and the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, human rights to education
and health as set out in the 1966 International Convention on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights are also
important for maximising participation in elections, since provisions for and fulfilment of state obligations on
these rights provides the necessary capacity and capability for individuals to take part in elections
meaningfully. Limits to the fulfilment of these rights can lead to the de facto disenfranchisement of many
eligible voters. For more on the human rights implications of COVID-19, see https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.
org/files/un_policy_brief_on_human_rights_and_covid_23_april_2020.pdf.
2. See: https://aceproject.org/today/upcoming-elections/.
3. See the Center for Systems Science and Engineering here: https://systems.jhu.edu/.
4. The Blavatnik School of Government tracking of government response to COVID-19 is available here: https://
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker. The school’s
‘Stringency Index’ (OxCGRT) collects publicly available information on 17 indicators of government responses,
including containment and closure policies, economic policies, and health system policies.
5. For an analysis of the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on the UK, see the analysis of scenarios available
from PwC: https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-update-covid-19.html.
6. See, for example: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/un_policy_brief_on_human_rights_and_covid_23_
april_2020.pdf.
7. See, for example, Mudde, C. (2020) ‘The “Anti-Lockdown’ Protests are About More Than Just Quarantines,’ The
Guardian, 21 April 2020, London: The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/
commentisfree/2020/apr/21/anti-lockdown-protests-trump-right-wing.
8. Spektor, B. (2020) ‘Coronavirus: What is ’flattening the curve,’ and will it work?’ Livescience, 16 March 2020;
Available at: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html.
9. See, for example, The Royal College of Nurses (RCN) statement on personal protection equipment (PPE),
available at: https://www.rcn.org.uk/covid-19/rcn-position/ppe-position-statement.
10. See, for example, Gartner, A. and Roberts, L. (2020) ‘How close are we to a coronavirus vaccine? Latest news
on UK trials,’ The Telegraph, 1 May 2020, London: The Telegraph; Available at: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-vaccine-latest-news-trial-covid-19/.
11. The availability and accessibility of testing sites for COVID have been hotly debated in the press and vary
significantly by country. See, for example, the guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC); Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/testing.html.
1066 T. LANDMAN AND L. D. G. SPLENDORE

12. All governments across different jurisdictions face a number of challenges in devising exit strategies. See for
example, Highfield, R. (2020) ‘Coronavirus: Exit Strategies,’ The Science Museum Group; Available at: https://
www.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/coronavirus-exit-strategies/.
13. Election Guide, available at http://www.electionguide.org/digest/post/17597/.
14. Full democracies have a long history of legitimate elections, peaceful transfers of power between political
leaders, and a strong regime of human rights protection in place that allow for the maximisation of citizen
participation in the political system. Flawed democracies have many elements missing, where elections take
place, but there are significant shortcomings with respect to media laws, freedom of expression, and the
arbitrary use of coercion and repression to affect electoral outcomes. See, for example, Zakaria (2007),
Landman (2013, 2018).
15. See, for example, Euronews (2020) ‘Hungary’s Viktor Orban handed sweeping new powers with COVID-19 law;’
Available at: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/30/blank-cheque-hungary-expected-to-pass-controversial-covid-19-law.
16. See, for example, Lange, J. (2020) ‘Democrats delay presidential convention until August, citing coronavirus,’
Reuters, London: Tomson Reuters; Available at: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-biden-convention/
democrats-delay-presidential-convention-until-august-citing-coronavirus-idUKKBN21K36C.
17. See, for example, Zurcher, A. (2020) ‘Coronavirus: Could Donald Trump delay the presidential election?’ BBC,
London: BBC; Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52326166.
18. See, for example, Dalhusen, J. (2020) ‘EU must call out the follies of Poland’s Covid-19 election,’ The Financial
Times, London: The Financial Times; Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/b1a6457c-7a5c-11ea-bd25-
7fd923850377.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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