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2021 Exam Information & Learning Objective Statements: CMT Level Ii

CMT Level 2 - Learning Objective

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
433 views26 pages

2021 Exam Information & Learning Objective Statements: CMT Level Ii

CMT Level 2 - Learning Objective

Uploaded by

JamesMc1144
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 26

CMT LEVEL II

2021 Exam Information &


Learning Objective Statements

Stanley Dash, CMT


CMT Program Director
Not for general circulation
Level II. Theory and Analysis

The following sample CMT Level II questions offer a glimpse into the style and scope of the
exam. Each of the sample questions is followed by a relevant excerpt and citation from
the 2021 CMT Level II curriculum. These 16 samples are by no means a study guide;
instead, consider them a taste of what a Level II candidate will learn to master this
segment of the body of knowledge.

Important points to note

• The CMT Level II exam tests on the theory and analysis of applied technical analysis.

• The actual exam consists of 170 multiple-choice questions of which 150 are scored
items. The remaining 20 questions are under trial for future use.

• Candidates have four hours to complete the 170 questions on the exam.

• The exam is delivered on a computer in Prometric testing facilities, or through


Prometric’s ProProctor remote-proctoring service. Please be sure to schedule your
exam well in advance.

• Questions on the Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct appear on


all three levels of the CMT exams. The Standards of Practice Handbook is a
valuable study guide for the Code and Standards. Please use those documents as
ethics are not otherwise included in the CMT Program textbooks.

• The CMT Association maintains a discussion forum for CMT candidates.


Candidates are encouraged to utilize this resource to discuss and clarify their
understanding of the subject matter.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Level II. Theory and Analysis
Section One: Chart Development and Analysis
1 Charting: Understanding Data Intervals
Employ a sequence of multiple data intervals to identify trends
Compare the typical construction of weekly and monthly interval charts
Review challenges related to consistent data sampling using time-based intraday intervals
Interpret general trend relationships in charts with multiple price-data sets
Interpret the significance of the data points in a scatter plot

2 Additional Charting Methods


Describe the construction of the types of charts in this chapter
Compare the axes and intervals of these charts
Analyze trends and price action using these charts
Demonstrate how point-and-figure charts help minimize “noise”
Distinguish between charts with defined and undefined x-axes
State the basic principles behind Market Profile

3 Moving Averages
Contrast various types of moving averages used in trend analysis
Illustrate four ways moving averages are used by technicians
Analyze trend movement using Directional Movement Indicators
Compare common envelope, channel, and band indicators

4 Time-Based Trend Calculations


Examine methods for forecasting price direction
Calculate a simple approach to momentum
Inventory various weighting methods for moving averages
Explain the drop-off effect and its impact on technical indicators

5 Trend Systems Part 1


Explain three reasons why trend systems work
Demonstrate appropriate asset selections based on trend and forecast
Diagram how buy and sell signals are used with indicators and tools for measuring trend, such as: Moving
Averages, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, Percentage Bands, Volatility Bands, and combinations of bands
and other indicators
Illustrate use of the 10-day moving average rule in a trading system

6 Trend Systems Part 2


Analyze how a trader or investor would go about selecting the right moving average, trend method, and
speed
Compare the role of each moving average in a two-trend or three-trend method of trading
Contrast two general rules for generating an exit signal when using moving averages, and explain which one
of the two is considered better than the other
Describe the “Golden Cross” and the “Death Cross”

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


7 Momentum and Oscillators
Differentiate between momentum and rate of change studies in technical analysis
Distinguish among various calculations of momentum
Demonstrate use of momentum for trend indication and associated signals
Demonstrate use of momentum for finding price extremes and associated signals
Illustrate the use of MACD to generate trading signals
Compare various oscillators and their trading signals including RSI, stochastics, and TRIX

8 Price Trends and Volume


Describe the four phases of price-volume trends
Interpret volume in the context of price trends
Interpret price and volume to identify the current phase

9 Volume and Breadth


Compare various volume indicators such as On-Balance Volume, Accumulation Distribution, and VWAP
Analyze changes in breadth in the context of price trends
Interpret breadth indicators such as the McClellan Oscillator
Interpret indicators that combine breadth with volume such as Arms Index and Thrust Oscillator
Examine approaches to incorporating volume and breadth into systematic methods

10 Bar Chart Patterns


Critique the controversy over whether tradeable patterns exist in technical analysis
Discuss the influence that computer technology has had on the study of patterns
Diagram classic chart patterns such as triangles, and double and triple tops and bottoms
Draw rounding chart patterns such as head-and-shoulders
Illustrate “half-mast” chart patterns such as flags and pennants
Demonstrate methods for determining price objectives from patterns

11 Short Term Patterns


Analyze reversals in longer-term trends using short-term price patterns
Interpret the significance of various types of gaps that occur on price charts
Compare and analyze wide-range and narrow-range bars and their implications for volatility
Diagram one- and two-bar reversal patterns
Draw common candlestick patterns and analyze their significance within a trend

12 Single Candle Lines


Interpret market psychology from candle shapes
Diagram and interpret notable individual candles: hammer, hanging man, doji and others in this chapter
Demonstrate the importance of such candles in the context of trends
Differentiate between the buying and selling activity represented by real bodies and shadows in these
candles

13 Multi-Candle Patterns
Diagram and interpret notable patterns formed by multiple candles: engulfing, stars, windows and others in
this chapter
Demonstrate the importance of the prevailing trend when interpreting candle patterns
Differentiate between the buying and selling activity represented by real bodies and shadows in these
candle patterns
Interpret candle patterns for support and resistance

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


14 Candle Pattern Forecasting and Trading Techniques
Analyze candle patterns on charts for indications of trend reversal and continuation
Interpret candle patterns for support and resistance indications and confirmation
Illustrate how to combine Western technical indicators with candles
Employ candlestick analysis for risk management
Demonstrate using candles in multiple time frames

15 Concepts in Cycle Theory


Illustrate the causes of the “mid-cycle dip” and “3/4 cycle high”
Analyze the implications of an inversion
Examine the cyclical explanation for rounded tops and “V-bottoms”
Interpret the implications of left and right translation
Calculate a centered moving average (CMA) envelope
Demonstrate the use of a valid trend line (VTL)

16 Applied Cycle Analysis


Diagram the steps to a comprehensive cycle analysis
Differentiate tools that find cycles from tools that phase cycles
Illustrate how to identify a dominant cycle with a spectrogram
Compare the phasing of smaller harmonics to larger harmonics

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Section Two: Volatility Measures in Today’s Financial Markets
17 Options
Explain the purpose of options markets
List the major terms of an option contract
Describe “the Greeks”
Define implied volatility

18 Understanding Implied Volatility


Contrast historical and implied volatility when used in price analysis and forecasting
Interpret implied volatility as the market’s estimate of possible future asset prices
Calculate single-day implied volatility
List the inputs to an option pricing model

19 About the VIX Index


Explain how the VIX is impacted by put-call parity and options supply
Interpret the VIX as an indication of market sentiment
Interpret changes in the VIX as part of a market forecast
Calculate expected 30-day movement of an index or a stock

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Section Three: Topics in Behavioral Finance
20 Prospect Theory
Compare utility theory and prospect theory
Describe loss aversion
Describe the single greatest limitation of prospect theory

21 Perception Biases
Describe each of the four perception biases covered in this chapter
Illustrate how each of these biases might affect investor behavior

22 Inertial Effects
Describe each of the three inertial effects covered in this chapter
Illustrate how each of these might affect investor behavior

23 Analyzing Sentiment in the Stock Market


Appraise the impact of insider activity on a security’s price action
Compare insider buying vs insider selling
Analyze short interest and the short interest ratio
Interpret sentiment as drawn from surveys of investors and professionals

24 Analyzing Sentiment in Derivatives Markets


Interpret changes in futures open interest in the context of price action
Analyze the Commitments of Traders report
Employ options put/call ratios as sentiment indicators
Interpret volatility data drawn from the options market

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Section Four: Statistical Applications for Technical Analysts
25 Inferential Statistics
Compare descriptive and inferential statistics
Demonstrate the use of hypothesis testing to frame statistical tests
Explain confidence intervals, statistical significance and the base rate fallacy
Compare coefficients of correlation and determination
Differentiate between correlation and causation
Examine the use of regression analysis in technical studies

26 Correlation
Compare Pearson’s and Spearman’s methods
Describe the importance of linearity and normality to useful correlation studies
Analyze the effect of outliers on a regression study

27 Regression
Interpret values generated by regression, multiple regression and tolerance calculations
Demonstrate the process of selecting meaningful predictor variables for multiple regression studies

28 Regression Analysis
Analyze the concept behind the ARIMA method
Describe the ARIMA process
Employ the results of the ARIMA forecast to generate trading signals
Demonstrate use of linear regression to generate trading signals
Illustrate the use of linear regression for relative strength studies

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Section Five: Technical Methods and Market Selection
29 Selection of Markets and Issues
Differentiate between buy-and-hold, position, swing and day trading, and the use of technical analysis in
each
Compare significant factors in trading stocks versus futures
Distinguish between bottom-up and top-down approaches
Contrast secular and cyclical emphasis
Explain the basic concepts of intermarket analysis
Explain the principles behind relative strength analysis
Compare four methods for calculating relative strength

30 Intermarket Analysis
Interpret the rotation of stocks, bonds, and commodities in the typical business cycle
Describe methods of determining intermarket relationships
Illustrate the importance of measuring correlation for portfolio diversification and asset selection

31 Relative Strength Strategies for Investing


Illustrate a general approach to a momentum strategy using relative strength
Analyze the use of hedging and non-correlated assets in a long-only relative strength model

32 A Stock Market Model


Define an environmental model
Contrast internal and external indicators
Sketch the basic components of Davis’ Fab Five model

33 A Simple Model for Bonds


Categorize each of the four indicators in Zweig’s original model as internal or external
Categorize the additional indicator in the modified version as internal or external, trend following or mean
reversion

34 Perspectives on Active and Passive Money Management


Differentiate between alpha and beta
Compare the Efficient Market Hypothesis with general concepts in behavioral finance and with the Adaptive
Markets Hypothesis

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Section Six: Designing and Testing Technical Trading Systems
35 The Statistics of Backtesting
Explain the statistical challenges faced when backtesting
Appraise four important statistical features of time-series price data
Illustrate why log returns are often used in backtesting
Analyze three statistical concerns in backtesting
Differentiate between signal testing and backtesting

36 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis


Examine the possibilities and challenges of applying the scientific method to traditional technical analysis
Analyze the three forms of the EMH as to their information content
Explain “null hypothesis” as used in the scientific method
State the five stages of the hypothetico-deductive method
Critique the three consequences, articulated in this chapter, of adopting the scientific method in technical
analysis

37 Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion


Analyze why the existence of nonrandom price motion is a premise of technical analysis
Describe an “efficient market”
Analyze behavioral finance as a theory of nonrandom price motion
Illustrate the two foundations of behavioral finance
Interpret feedback loops in price action

38 Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P 500


Examine data mining and data-mining bias in testing trading rules
Define and examine data-snooping bias in testing trading rules

39 System Design and Testing


Differentiate between discretionary and nondiscretionary systems
Illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of nondiscretionary trading systems
Inventory the five initial decisions for constructing a trading system per the authors of this chapter
Distinguish between four types of technical trading systems
Compare various metrics for evaluating trading systems such as profit factor, percent profitable, and
average trade net profit
Differentiate between methods of optimization
Define “robustness” as it applies to trading systems
Examine risk-adjusted performance metrics such as Sharpe, Sterling, and Sortino ratios

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


CMT LEVEL II
2021
Example Questions

Stanley Dash, CMT


CMT Program Director
Not for general circulation
Knowledge Domain: Theory and History

1. The bias under which an event which has not occurred recently is perceived as having
zero or negligible probability of occurring in the future is categorized as

A. saliency bias.
B. framing bias.
C. sunk-cost bias.
D. anchoring bias.

“When we have not encountered something recently, we have a tendency to ignore that
thing even if it is important to an upcoming decision. No one seems interested in buying
flood insurance unless there has been a recent flood. Airplane accident insurance is
almost never purchased except in airports just prior to boarding a flight, though it is
available to be purchased from the moment travel plans are made. When the economy
has been strong and vigorous for a long time, fears of an economic slowdown recede
almost to the point of being completely ignored.”
-- Burton and Shah
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 21
Learning Objective: Describe each of the four perception
biases covered in this chapter

A. saliency bias.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: Market Indicators

2. The _______________ tracks the breadth of participation in rallies and declines.

A. MACD line
B. RSI
C. relative strength line
D. advance/decline ratio

“Market breadth measures the imbalance between the number of advancing and declining
stocks on a given day. It is the percentage of rising stocks to the total number of stocks
traded.”
-- Kaufman
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 9
Learning Objective: Analyze changes in breadth in the context of price trends

“Market breadth refers to the spread or difference between the number of stocks
advancing and the number declining on a given day, week, or other defined time interval.
Breadth has been measured in a variety of ways … For [these] purposes … breadth is
defined as the daily advance-decline ratio; that is, it is the difference between a day’s
advancing and declining issues divided by the total number of issues traded.”
-- Aronson
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 38

D. advance/decline ratio

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


3. When ADX rallies above both directional lines, it identifies

A. less directional market.


B. flat and sleepy market.
C. a trending market.
D. a dull market.

“The ADX is the smoothed value of the DX …. When the ADX is rising, the market is
increasingly trending in either direction.
The ADX indicator is valuable in determining when to apply a moving average trend-
following system. A rising ADX indicates an increasing tendency to trend in the
corresponding prices.”
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 3

C. a trending market.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


4. Which of the following instances marks a valid buy signal using a 20-bar simple moving
average (blue) and a 50-bar simple moving average (green)?

A. A
B. B
C. C
D. D

“Fourth, some technical analysts use moving averages to give specific signals. These
can occur when prices cross a moving average, when a shorter moving average
crosses a longer moving average, and in some cases, when a third, even shorter,
moving average crosses two longer ones.”
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 3
Learning Objective: Illustrate four ways moving averages
are used by technicians

C. C

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: Chart and Pattern Analysis

5. Which of the following patterns describe the price action highlighted within the green
rectangles marked ‘A’ & ‘B’?

A. piercing line and hammer


B. piercing line and evening star
C. bullish engulfing and shooting star
D. bullish engulfing and hanging man

“The bullish piercing pattern consists of a black body forming in the downtrend; the
next real body culminates in a white real body that closes within the prior black body,
preferably more than one-half of the black body’s length. The white real body
“pierces” the recent downtrend, with the bulls overwhelming the bears. Subsequent
price action should confirm this pattern …”
-- Nison
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 13

“The star is the middle portion of two candle patterns called the morning star and
evening star … The morning star’s bearish counterpart is the evening star. Three candle
lines make up this top reversal signal. In the context of an uptrend, a long white candle
appears, convincing the bulls that the rally will continue. Then the star appears in the
form of a small real body that classically gaps up from the white candle’s closing price.
The star’s real body (black or white) remains isolated as the next candle confirms the
trend top by gapping away from the star and producing a long, black real body that
pushes into the white candle’s real body. The final candle seals the fate of the bulls as
the bears grab control and push the market downward.”
-- Nison

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 13
Learning Objective: Diagram and interpret notable patterns formed by
multiple candles: engulfing, stars, windows and others in this chapter

B. piercing line and evening star

6. Identify the candlestick pattern highlighted by the circle in the chart below.

A. harami
B. bullish engulfing
C. hammer
D. marubozu

“…like a piercing pattern, the bullish engulfing pattern typically appears at the
culmination of a decline or a downtrend … The market falls, and a black candle forms.
Next, a candle line develops with a real body that wraps around the prior session’s
black body. … As the white real body opens under the prior black real body’s close and
closes above that session’s open, it shows that buying pressure has overpowered selling
pressure (i.e., the bulls have taken charge!) If the market is solid, the lows of the bullish
engulfing pattern should be support.”
-- Nison
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 13
Learning Objective: Diagram and interpret notable patterns formed by
multiple candles: engulfing, stars, windows and others in this chapter

B. bullish engulfing

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


7. Based on the chart given below, identify the chart pattern and the best course of
action.

A. Head and shoulders top; go long and use current pullback as shares are retesting
an important support level at point B.
B. Double top; go short at point A as shares have violated an uptrend support line.
C. Triple top; wait for a close below point C and execute shorts when prices are 2%
below the neckline.
D. Head and shoulders top; wait for a close below point B to execute shorts below the
neckline.

“Once a pattern has been observed using the preceding descriptive features, the
neckline becomes the most important factor. The neckline is where the breakout level
resides. Never should one act in anticipation of a break through the neckline.”
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 10
Learning Objective: Draw rounding chart patterns such
as head-and-shoulders

D. Head and shoulders top; wait for a close below point B to execute shorts below
the neckline.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: Cycles

8. Phase refers to

A. the height of the wave from its horizontal midpoint (the X-axis).
B. the number of time units necessary to complete one wavelength.
C. the number of wavelengths that repeat every 360°.
D. a measurement of the starting point or offset of the cycle relative to a benchmark
or theoretical wave.

“After identifying the cycle(s) operating within a market and verifying the dominant
cycle, an analyst can begin to “phase” the chart. This is the process of matching
actual price lows to theoretical cycle troughs.”
-- Crystal
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 15

-- Crystal
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021
Learning Objective: Differentiate tools that find cycles
from tools that phase cycles

D. a measurement of the starting point or offset of the


cycle relative to a benchmark or theoretical wave.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


9. In the following chart, where is a negative divergence in RSI observed?

A. A
B. B
C. C
D. D

“Subjective divergence analysis typically involves comparing the peaks and troughs of
the two time series under consideration. A negative or bearish divergence is said to
occur if one series continues to register peaks at successively higher levels while the
other series begins forming peaks at lower levels. The failure by the second series to
form peaks at successively higher levels is also termed a bearish nonconfirmation.”
-- Aronson
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 38

D. D

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: Selection and Decision

10. Because relative strength is so________ it is used as the primary ________ Random
Walk and EMH.

A. successful, defense of
B. successful, argument against
C. weak, defense of
D. weak, argument against

“Not until 1993 was another major paper published on the subject of relative price
strength, or momentum as it is commonly called. This paper, “Returns to Buying Winners
and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency,” was also published in the
Journal of Finance. The authors, Professors Narishimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan
Titman, … stated that the t-test statistical evidence forced them “to conclude that the
hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected at even the most conservative levels of
significance.”

…by the time of Conrad and Kaul’s paper, other doubts about market efficiency had
also been demonstrated, and the evidence was not rejected immediately as it had
been … Since then, the basis of their paper has been proven correct not only in foreign
countries but also in the period following the original paper in the United States, …
In 1998, Professor K. G. Rouwenhorst showed that momentum was successful in 12
European stock markets, and in 1999, he demonstrated that momentum was most
strong in emerging markets. Other studies confirm the existence of profitability from
relative strength in China, Germany, eight different Asian markets (without Japan), and
Switzerland. Even Professor Eugene Fama, one of the originators of the EMH, found
that momentum was the only anomaly to survive a multitude of tests (Fama and French,
1996). Academia has, thus, concluded that the theory of relative price strength shows
success not only in producing profits but also in debunking part of the EMH.”

-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist


CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 29
Learning Objective: Explain the principles behind relative strength analysis

B. successful, argument against

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: System Testing

11. When using out-of-sample testing, the “out-of-sample” refers to

A. a small subset of data that was used to optimize the system.


B. the unexpected set of parameters that gives the best system results.
C. a set of data not used in the system-building process.
D. none of the above.

“… a large portion of the data, called out-of-sample data, must be kept aside to use
later when testing the system for robustness. Once a viable system has been
adequately optimized, the resulting parameters are then tested against the out-of-
sample data to see if the system works with unknown data and was not the result of
curve-fitting or data mining.”
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 39
Learning Objective: Differentiate methods of optimization

C. a set of data not used in the system-building process.

12. The measurement that tells the system designer how far a trade was in loss before it
came back to close in profit is called

A. maximum favorable excursion.


B. maximum adverse excursion.
C. return retracement ratio.
D. none of the above.

“Maximum favorable and adverse excursions … inform the system’s designer of how
much dispersion exists in trades. It can be used to measure the smoothness of the
equity curve but also give hints as to where and how often losing trades occur. Its
primary use is to give hints as to where trailing stops should be placed to take
advantage of favorable excursions and reduce adverse excursions.
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 39
Learning Objective: Compare various metrics for evaluating trading systems
such as profit factor, percent profitable, and average trade net profit
B. maximum adverse excursion.

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


13. _____________ captures an increasing part of the profits as price moves in a
favorable direction.

A. An initial stop
B. A trailing stop
C. A sell stop
D. A standard deviation stop

“Follow a profitable move with a trailing, nonretreating stop based on fixed points or a
percentage.”
-- Kaufman
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 7

“…place trailing stops as the price progresses upward.”


-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 11

“… devise a stop-loss strategy … This strategy should include protective and trailing
stops, price targets, and adjustments for volatility, type of market, and any other state
that the market might be in.”

“On the exit side of a trend, specific trailing stops or such can be used to receive
better prices…”
-- Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 39

B. A trailing stop

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


Knowledge Domain: Risk Management

14. The only effective method of diversifying a portfolio is by including asset classes with
________ correlation to stocks such as cash, foreign exchange or commodities.

A. positive
B. meaningful
C. low/negative
D. moderately positive

“The only effective method of diversifying one’s portfolio is by including asset classes
with low or negative correlation to stocks such as cash, foreign exchange, or
commodities. Whatever the relationship is—leading, lagging, or divergent responses to
economic conditions—a strong negative correlation coefficient between two markets is
a suggestion that these markets will move against each other sometime in the future.
And, of course, the higher the absolute value of the coefficient of correlation, the
higher the diversity of their performances.”
-- Katsanos
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 30
Learning Objective: Illustrate the importance of measuring correlation
for portfolio diversification and asset selection

C. low/negative

15. _______________ as a risk measure results in an estimation of a price move in either


direction.

A. Put/Call parity
B. Plurality index
C. Implied volatility
D. Standard deviation

“What the implied volatility of an option projects onto the underlying security is the
expected range of price movement over a certain period of time. This estimation of
price movement is based on statistics and the bell curve. The implied volatility of an
option is the projection of an annualized one standard deviation move in the underlying
stock over the life of the option. According to statistics and using implied volatility as a
guide, the price of a stock should land between up and down one standard deviation

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


at option expiration. The closing price should land in this range 68.2 percent of the
time.”
-- Rhoads
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 18
Learning Objective: Interpret implied volatility as the market’s
estimate of possible future asset prices

C. Implied volatility

16. What would be the implied volatility if you were told the one day expected movement
was 2%?

A. 0.317%
B. 31.7%
C. 6.93%
D. 5.04%

“This single-day implied volatility can be interpreted as being a single standard


deviation range of expected price movement of the stock on that day.


-- Rhoads
CMT Level II Curriculum (2021), Chapter 18
Learning Objective: Calculate single-day implied volatility

B. 31.7%

© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.


CMT Exam Information and Curriculum
Learning Objective Statements
© 2021 CMT Association, Inc.

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