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Time Series Predictions Using Arima & Sarimax

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ante mitar
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80 views7 pages

Time Series Predictions Using Arima & Sarimax

Uploaded by

ante mitar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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#Standard Imports

from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose


from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf
from matplotlib.pylab import rcParams
from pmdarima import auto_arima
from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import
ARIMA,ARIMAResults,ARMA,ARMAResults
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tsa.statespace.sarimax import SARIMAX

Sarimax_model = auto_arima(data_diff['passengers'],
start_P=1,
start_q=1,
max_p=3,
max_q=3,
m=12,
seasonal=True,
d=None,
D=1,
trace=True,
error_action='ignore',
suppress_warnings=True,
stepwise=True)

Sarimax_model.summary()

model = SARIMAX(df['passengers'],order=(1, 0, 1),


seasonal_order=(2, 1, 0, 12),
enforce_stationarity=False,
enforce_invertibility=False)

results = model.fit()

forecast = results.predict(start = len(df),


end=len(df)+24,
typ='levels')
.rename('data sarimax (1,0,1) forecast')

df['passengers'].plot(figsize=(12,8),legend=True)
forecast.plot(legend=True)

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