Answers to Practice Problems

Chapter 5, Ch 5-Appendix 1, & an extra question

Question 13 Part A 4 4
2 12 12 19
6 16 16 23
B10 E7

4 4
02 6 19 31 4
46 2 17 23 35 31 36
8 23 35 40
A2 D 15 G 12
H5

C8 F 20
S
5 5 ES EF
2 10 10 30 LS LF
7 15 15 35

Yes, the project can be done within 40 weeks. The expected completion time is 36 weeks.
The critical path is A-B-E-G-H
Question 13 Part B 4
12 19
AF = 12 16 23
B10 E7

4
5 19 31 2
3 18 23 35 33 38
AF= 3 8 23 35 40
A2 D 15 G 12
H5

C8 F 20
AF= 13 S
2 ES EF
13 33 LS LF
15 35

The project can still be completed within 40 weeks; however, the expected completion has slipped from 36 to 38 weeks.
Question 14 Part A 1
10 18
11 19

-1 5 DIS8
7 10
6 9

3 DI /O3
-1
-5 10 20 -5 -5
-5 2 7 9 19 24 30 30 35
0 2 -3 2 19 25 25 30
-5 -3 6 DOS 10

1 PD 2 2 SA 5 8 TS6 9 IS 5

4 DD15 7 DD 2 S
ES EF
-5 -5 LS LF
7 22 22 24
2 17 17 19

This project cannot be completed within 30 weeks. The expected completion time is 35 weeks.
The critical path is 1-2-4-7-8-9
Question 14 Part B -4
15 23
11 19

5 DIS8

AF= 15

3 DI /O3
-6
15 25 -6 -6
9 19 25 31 31 36
19 25 25 30
COMPLETE AF= 8 6 DOS 10

1 PD 2 2 SA 5 8 TS6 9 IS 5

4 DD15 7 DD 2 S
ES EF
AF= 19 -2 LS LF
19 21
17 19

The project has slipped even further. With the current estimates, it will take 36 weeks. Attention should be given to all activities since they all
have negative slack. However, the path 6-8-9 is the most critical and must be reduced more than the others. It is advisable to immediately try
and reduce 5, 6 and 7 since they are happening before the others.
Question 15 Part A 2
3 21
2 5 23
0 3 -2
2 5 C 18 25 27
23 25
A3
-2 0 H2
0 0 5 15 -2
-2 -2 5 15 -2 27 32
17 25 25 30
Start E10 15 23
J5
G8

B5
I9
-2 D7 F5
0 5 -1 S
-2 3 -2 -2 17 26 ES EF
5 12 12 17 16 25 LS LF
3 10 10 15

No, this project cannot be done within 30 weeks. The estimated completion time will be 32 weeks.
The critical path is B-D-F-G-H-J
Question 15 Part B 0
5 23
5 23
-2
AF@5 C 18 25 27
23 25
A3
0 H2
5 15 -2
5 15 -2 27 32
17 25 25 30
Start E10 15 23
J5
G8

B5
I9
AF@ 5 D7 F5
-1 S
-2 -2 17 26 ES EF
5 12 12 17 16 25 LS LF
3 10 10 15

No this project cannot be done within 30 weeks. The estimated completion time is still 32 weeks.
The critical path is D-F-G-H-J. Attention should be given to these tasks in an effort to get the project back on schedule.
The tasks that have the most potential to be reduced are D and G since they are longest. Thus, first D should be reduced since it is happening 1 st,
and then if further reduction is needed, G should be reduced.
Ch 5, Appendix 1 Answers

2.
Expected duration = [2 + 4(14) + 14] / 6
= 72 / 6
= 12
Variance = [(14 - 2)/6]2 = 4.0
Standard deviation = 2.0

4.
Z = (130 – 138) / 6 = –1.33
Using Table 5.1, the probability of completing the project between 130 and 138 days is
40.824%. To determine the probability of completing the project before 130 days, you need
to subtract 0.40824 from 0.5000 (or to do it the way we did it in class, set the probability to
be negative (-40.824% because the Z value is negative) and add 0.5). Therefore, there is a
9.176% probability of completing the project by its required completion time of 130 days.

Extra Problem:
A company has two years to finish a project. The following is an aggregate-level WBS plan with
relevant task information (data in months).

Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

Time Time Time
A - 1 2 4
B - 4 5 8
C - 4 5 5
D A 2 3 8
E A 1 2 5
F C 2 3 6
G C 7 9 15
H B,E,F 4 5 9
I B,E,F 6 10 12
J B,E,F 1 2 2
K G,J 2 3 7
L D,H 6 10 13

a) What is the probability of finishing on time?

b) What is the probability of finishing in 20 months?
c) Given the answer to (a), what do you recommend to the project manager?

Answers on next pages.

Extra Problem Answer:

Network diagram:

D L

A E H

St B I End

C F J

G K

Activit Predecessor Optimistic Most Likely Pessimisti Expected Variance of

y s Time Time c Time Duration Duration
A - 1 2 4 2.167 0.250
B - 4 5 8 5.333 0.444
C - 4 5 5 4.833 0.028
D A 2 3 8 3.667 1.000
E A 1 2 5 2.333 0.444
F C 2 3 6 3.333 0.444
G C 7 9 15 9.667 1.778
H B,E,F 4 5 9 5.500 0.694
I B,E,F 6 10 12 9.667 1.000
J B,E,F 1 2 2 1.833 0.028
K G,J 2 3 7 3.500 0.694
L D,H 6 10 13 9.833 1.361

Path Lengths:
ADL 15.667 CFHL 23.500 CFI 17.833 CFJK 13.500
AEHL 19.833 AEI 14.167 AEJK 9.833 CGK 18.000
BHL 20.667 BI 15.000 BJK 10.667
Critical path: CFHL

Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance of

Time Time Time Duration Duration
C - 4 5 5 4.833 0.028
F C 2 3 6 3.333 0.444
H B,E,F 4 5 9 5.500 0.694
L D,H 6 10 13 9.833 1.361

Whole Project: 23.500 2.528

Std Dev 1.590

a)
Probability of finishing in 24 months: 
z= 0.31
Prob = 0.12172 from table
add 0.5 0.62172

=NORMSDIST(z) 0.623 from Excel

62.3% chance will be done on time

b)
Probability of finishing in 20 months: 
z= -2.20
Prob = -0.4861 from table
add 0.5 0.0139

=NORMSDIST(z) 0.014 from Excel

1.4% chance will be done in 20 months

c) The probability of finishing on time is only 62% based on PERT. This may not be high
enough to satisfy the project manager – he may be concerned about his on-time completion
record and may want to crash some activities to increase the probability of finishing on time.

In addition, PERT always underestimates the true expected project duration because other paths
may become critical. In this project the 2nd longest path is BHL at 20.667 months, which is
almost a full 3 months shorter than the critical path. As such, there is not much chance that a path
other than CFHL will become critical. Thus, other paths must be monitored, but in this project
the inaccuracy of the PERT estimate is less of a concern.