Slides - Session 5
Slides - Session 5
Slides - Session 5
2
Recap Example
Solution
Excel
0.23
5
Steps in Cash Flow Estimation
• Estimate the current earnings of the firm
• If looking at cash flows to equity, look at earnings after interest expenses - i.e.
net income
• If looking at cash flows to the firm, look at operating earnings after taxes
• Consider how much the firm invested to create future growth
• If the investment is not expensed, it will be categorized as capital
expenditures. To the extent that depreciation provides a cash flow, it will
cover some of these expenditures.
• Increasing working capital needs are also investments for future growth
• If looking at cash flows to equity, consider the cash flows from net
debt issues (debt issued - debt repaid)
• Where are the tax savings from interest payments in this cash flow?
The tax savings from interest payments do not show up in the cashflows
because they have already been counted in the cost of capital (in the use
of the after-tax cost of debt). If you add the interest tax benefits to the
cashflows, you will double count the benefit.
Moein Karami (FINA 410/AA - Summer 2021 - Session 5) 8
Earnings
• To estimate cash flows, we usually begin with a measure of earnings.
• Free cash flows to the firm, for instance, are based on after-tax operating earnings.
• Free cash flows to equity estimates, on the other hand, commence with net income.
Measuring Earnings
Update
- Trailing Earnings
- Unofficial numbers
• A new FASB rule, effective Dec. 15, 2018, requires that all leases—
unless they are shorter than 12 months—must be recognized on the
balance sheet.
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Market Apparel Stores Furniture Stores Restaurants
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Market Petroleum Computers
42
Estimating Cash Flows: FCFE
• Cash flows to Equity for a Levered Firm
Net Income
- (Capital Expenditures - Depreciation)
- Changes in non-cash Working Capital
- (Principal Repayments - New Debt Issues)
= Free Cash flow to Equity
1600
1400
1200
1000
FCFE
800
600
400
200
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Debt Ratio
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
Beta
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Debt Ratio