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 Objectives

ENGLISH PRÉCIS & COMPOSITION ISLAMIC STUDIES

(a) Mitigate  The name of the third Kalimah is: Kalimah Tajdeed
 The name of the fourth Kalimah is: Kalimah Tauheed
Meaning: to make something less harmful, unpleasant,  The name of the fifth kalimah: Kalimah Istighfar
or bad  The name of the six Kalimah: Radd-i-Kufar
 The first lady inspector of Madina made by Hazrat
Use in Sentence: It is unclear how to mitigate the Umar was: Hazrat Shifa
effects of tourism on the island.  The members of the committee constituted by
Hazrat Umer to elect the next caliph: 6 members
(b) Alleviate
 Who wrote Islam at Crossroads book: Muhammad
Meaning: to make something bad such as pain or Asad
problems less severe  Sahai bukhari and Sahi Muslim combined called:
Sahihain
Use in Sentence: The drugs did nothing to alleviate her  The title is given by Imam Malik: Sheikh-ul-Islam
pain/suffering.  Salat was first made obligatory for Muslims
 Qasim-al-Zehrwi was a: Surgeon
(c) Persecute  Theory/law of reflection was given by Ibn al Haitham
 Imam Malik was: Mujtahid e Mutliq
Meaning: To treat someone unfairly or cruelly over a  The place where discussion related to Hazrat Abu
long period of time because of their race, religion or Bakr selection tool place: Saqeefa bin Saidah
political beliefs or to annoy someone by refusing to  As per Quran, Roza is: Taqwa
leave them alone.

Use in Sentence: Religious minorities were persecuted

and massacred during the ten-year regime. POLITICAL SCIENCE
(d) Prosecute
 In his theory of the cycle of rise and fall of
Meaning: to bring legal action against for redness or civilization, Ibn e Khuldun describes that duration of
punishment of a crime or violation of law one cycle, which three generations of a dynasty
survive, consists of how many years? 120
Use in Sentence: He was prosecuted for fraud.  The concept of State’s will was given by: Hegel
 Who said, men are “counted”, not weighed in
democracy? Iqbal
 First European fascist was Mussolini
GSA  Member of first national assembly of Pakistan were:
nominated (not elected)
 The waves which do not require any medium is  Who gave idea of demands and support in political
electromagnetic waves system: David Easton
 Electromagnetic waves travel with the speed of light  Interest articulation is done by: Interest Groups
 Sound travels faster in iron than in air  Political recruitment and training is done by Political
 Which of the following is the good conductor of Parties
electricity? Graphite  Model and antique federal state: USA
 The electoral system in Germany is an example of
Mixed Electoral System
 Imagines Communities was written by Benedict
Anderson
CURRENT AFFAIRS  Pact of Steel was signed in 1939
 Constitution of the 5th republic of France was
 A terrorist attack was launched on Army Public drafted by Michel Debre
School in Peshawar on 16 December 2014  The concept of state by Al-Farabi resembles the
 WAFA is the news agency of which country? concept of state given by: Plato
Palestine  When khilafat was abolished and replaced by the
 RAW stands for Research and Analysis Wing assembly in Turkey. Who appreciated this act of the
 The First Martial Law in Pakistan was imposed in Turkish people? Iqbal
October 1958

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 US and China: Still on a
Rocky Course Maleeha Lodhi

US-China relations continue on a volatile course. are advocating that Beijing toughen its policy in the face
Hopes that the world’s most consequential relationship of America’s efforts to contain China. Nevertheless, top
will be more stable under the Biden Administration Chinese officials continue to call for calm in relations
have not materialized. President Donald Trump’s with Washington. In April while addressing the Boao
policies had plunged ties to such a low that it gave rise forum, President Xi Jinping warned that any economic
to widespread fears that the standoff between the decoupling between the two global powers would be to
global powers would lead to a new ‘cold war’. His the world’s detriment. Although he did not name the US,
constant demonizing of China, trade restrictions as he directed sharp criticism at American efforts to de-
well as the tech war he unleashed kept escalating link supply chains and ban the sale of high-tech
tensions between the two countries. The outbreak of products to Chinese companies. This once again
the pandemic prompted Trump to heap blame on China brought into focus the intense tech war between the
for being the cause of the global health crisis. More two countries.
recently, President Joe Biden ordered US intelligence
agencies to probe the origins of Covid-19. Predictably, Present indications suggest that the turbulence in ties
Beijing reacted sharply. Rejecting the need for any will persist as competition intensifies but ways will
investigation it accused the US of politicizing the also be sought to cooperate in limited areas of common
pandemic. interest – for example on climate change. The problem
of course is how stable relations can be when there is
The stance taken by President Biden is different only in unmanaged competition and an ‘adversarial’ dimension
tone and not substance from his in play.
predecessor’s antagonistic policy toward
Beijing. It reflects and reinforces Much is being written by
the political and Congressional Western commenters on how
consensus in the US – fueled by the Biden administration
Trump’s actions and rhetoric – should conduct relations with
which sees China as an adversary Beijing. This ranges from
and a manipulative economic hawkish views to those
competitor who poses a strategic challenge such as Henry Kissinger,
to be countered and contained. Biden is the leading proponent and
apparently also sensitive to the charge by the architect of an engagement policy toward China,
Republican Party that he is ‘soft’ on China. who urged a more balanced approach. On the other
hand, one of the most thoughtful suggestions have
This explains why America’s top diplomat, Secretary of come from a Chinese academic worth citing for his
State Tony Blinken has described relations with China prudent advice.
as having three aspects – adversarial, competitive and
cooperative. Recently the White House’s top official for In an article in Foreign Affairs titled ‘New engagement
Asia declared that “the period that was broadly consensus’ Professor Wang Dong argues that a new
described as engagement has come to an end.” Kurt Cold War is neither inevitable nor desirable. He calls
Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs also said for a new approach to engagement predicated on
that US policy toward China will now be pursued within “G2RS’’ – a vision of the two countries as responsible
a “new set of strategic parameters” in which “the stakeholders. In this China and the US “would continue
dominant paradigm is going to be competition.” to hedge against each other, but manage their
differences in a calibrated, constructive manner.” They
China has been reacting coolly though firmly to such would lead the world together rather than engage in a
US assertions while emphasizing that cooperative ties rivalry that divides the world.
are in the mutual interest of both countries. Beijing
wants to steady the rocky relationship but there are This new consensus could emerge if the two countries
obviously limits to its patience in the face of hostile US tried to better understand each other’s perspectives.
actions. American efforts to mobilize European and According to Dong this would require strategic
other allies into taking a harder line toward Beijing has reassurance to address the trust deficit. China, as a
brought forth a strong reaction from Chinese officials. rising power needs to credibly reassure Washington
After the G7 summit in London in early May the that “it is neither pursuing a sphere of influence by
communique issued accused China of grave human pushing the US out of East Asia” nor “aiming to replace
rights abuses and ‘coercive economic policies’ while the existing international order.” The US should “resist
declaring support for Taiwan. China condemned this pursuing a containment strategy and seeking to
statement as “gross interference” in its internal affairs. mobilize the US public and its allies for a new cold war.”

Growing nationalist sentiment in China is urging Beijing Wise counsel for how to stabilize a relationship whose
to push back more strongly against western criticism. future course will have far reaching consequences for
This sentiment is already driving a more assertive the global economy and international stability as well
Chinese policy globally. In China more and more voices as for addressing a range of challenges. © Arab News

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 Two States or One?
HAVE MORE time and effort ever been devoted to peace complain of inequality and rose up during the fighting
to so little effect? America began overseeing talks in Gaza.
between the Israelis and Palestinians three decades
ago. But the Holy Land remains contested by two That leaves Israel in a quandary. It has thrived under
peoples who cannot bring themselves to live together. Oslo. GDP per head has grown by over half in the past
The fighting in May that left 242 Palestinians and ten 30 years. Its Iron Dome missile-defence system largely
Israelis dead accomplished nothing except to clear the shields it from Hamas’s attacks. A divided, weak
field for the next round of fighting. Palestinian leadership suits Binyamin Netanyahu, the
prime minister, who shows little interest in the
The peace process set up in the Oslo accords in 1993 Palestinians. And it’s not just him: the conflict did not
aims to create two states that agree to disagree—using feature much in any of the four elections Israel has held
land swaps, security guarantees, a deal to share since 2019.
Jerusalem and a limited “right of return” for
Palestinians. Israel’s prize was to be a thriving This cannot last. The Oslo figleaf lets Israel claim that
democracy and a sanctuary for Jews; for Palestinians the occupation will be undone in a final deal. As the
it was the promise of self-rule. At times, peace has interim power in charge, it has no duty to extend full
been tantalisingly close, only to recede again amid rights to the West Bank. But 54 years after the six-day
mutual recrimination. war, the idea of a temporary occupation rings
increasingly hollow.
Today, however, instead of being a pathway
to peace, the two-state Without hope of an agreement,
“process” is barring the Israel’s critics have begun to
route. Everyone talk of a “one-state reality”.
pretends that This challenges Israel: as the Holy
peace is still on Land has as many Jews as
the agenda Palestinians, it cannot remain both
when, in Jewish and democratic while
reality, it is permanently controlling all of that
not. That is a territory. Many critics of
formula for Israeli policy,
strife. Almost including some
everything that liberal Jews, now
matters can be compare the
deferred with the Palestinians’
promise that, one treatment to apartheid.
day, it will be
resolved in a deal that is perpetually over the horizon. The Palestinian demand for rights is resonating abroad,
It is also a formula that, by default, leads to a single not least in the halls of America’s Congress. By allying
state. Israel to the Republican Party, Mr Netanyahu has
helped make the Palestinians part of America’s culture
The idea that the two-state framework is harmful will wars. Progressives in the Democratic Party have
not come as news to the Palestinians. Under it, the started to declare that Palestinian lives matter.
vision of a viable, contiguous, sovereign Palestine has
receded. Palestinian territory in the West Bank is an America is Israel’s most important ally. True, American
archipelago in an expanding sea of Israeli settlements aid matters less than it did and Israel now produces
that are illegal under international law. Gaza is a most of its own advanced weapons. It has relations
solitary island, cut off by an Israeli and Egyptian with more countries, including its Arab neighbours
blockade. The Palestinian Authority was supposed to be through the Abraham accords. Yet if it drifts away from
a government in waiting. Young Palestinians look on it Europe and America and towards countries like Russia,
as the agent of Israel’s occupation, even as they laud China and populist India, it will be a blow to Israel as a
Hamas, the violent Islamist group that rules Gaza, for Western, liberal and democratic ideal.
standing up to Israel.
More important, Mr Netanyahu’s “anti-solutionism”
In place of the stagnant two-state effort, the new leaves his country less able than ever to navigate a
Palestinian vision is to demand individual rights in one future with the Palestinians. His embrace of the Jewish
state. Those in Gaza and the West Bank resent needing far right makes eruptions more likely even as it fires
Israel’s permission (often withheld) to travel to see up militant Palestinians—witness the recent communal
their families. The recent fighting was fuelled by a violence in Israeli cities. The wall that seals off Israel
dispute over property in East Jerusalem, where most from the West Bank has led to deeper distrust between
Palestinians are mere “residents”. Even Israeli Arabs Arabs and Jews. The settlements, once thought

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negotiable, have become permanent obstacles to
peace. World Environment Day (June 5)

The status quo has served Israel well but is not

sustainable. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning
that requires a new formula for living next to the
Palestinians. Adhering to Oslo while undermining it in
practice feeds the reality of one state—because it
makes two states harder to realise.

Instead of imposing peace in one top-down stroke of

diplomatic brilliance, a more realistic aim would be to
build it patiently from the bottom up. The guiding
principle should be to focus on the human and civil
rights of Palestinians. Israel will not grant Palestinians
full rights tomorrow. But it can make its Arab citizens
more equal by devoting resources to their
communities. It could make the administration of
Jerusalem more inclusive, so that tiffs over fencing do
not escalate into war. It must take more responsibility
for the suffering in the West Bank and Gaza—and work
harder to alleviate it.

A focus on rights also makes Palestinian leaders more

accountable. They cannot easily demand rights from
Israel that they deny their own people. Mahmoud Abbas
is in the 17th year of a four-year term as president. His
Fatah party is sclerotic. Hamas tramples the rights of
its people, including women and minorities. Better
Palestinian leaders are a prerequisite for peace.

Abandoning Oslo carries risks, obviously. Unbound,

Israeli settlers might push farther into Palestinian
territory. Hamas, which wants a single state in which
Palestinians would outweigh Jews, might redouble its
resistance. But today’s path is even riskier.

Peace always starts by acknowledging reality. It takes

root by improving lives and renewing politics. That can
flourish into something new. Then, one day, the parties
can start talking again about a deal, whether of one
state or two. © The Economist

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 The Halo Effect
Sakib Sherani

THE National Accounts Committee has provided a however. It should be noted that the order of magnitude
provisional estimate for overall growth in the economy between the foregoing different estimates is not very
for the outgoing fiscal year. At 3.94 per cent, the large.
estimate has surprised everyone, especially given the
difficult context for the economy in 2020-21 with the Nonetheless, the growth bounce is predicated
lingering effects of stabilisation and the full-blown substantially on two factors: a base effect, and the
impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. bumper output of major crops. While exports have done
exceedingly well, the claim that they contributed
The growth estimate has sparked a spirited debate in significantly to headline growth does not wash, given
the country, with the ‘econocracy’ — comprising the that the export sector is still less than 10pc of GDP.
commentariat, media, Panglossian stock market
analysts, and doomsday economists — consumed by The record and near-record output in four major crops
this one data point. Not surprisingly, the government (wheat, maize, rice and sugarcane) has meant a
has seized upon this growth estimate as validation of transfer of hundreds of billions of rupees to the rural
its policies, while the political opposition and the economy. While the flip side is higher prices paid by
government’s detractors are convinced this is the urban consumers (especially in the case of wheat and
result of data manipulation. sugar), there is a ‘funnel effect’ at work, where the
transfer occurs from a larger number of consumers to
The kerfuffle surrounding this one data point is fewer farmers; hence, the positive effect on
revealing about how economic ‘success’ (or failure) is consumption is more visible.
defined by the elite members of the ‘econocracy’.
Around the world, the political and economic elites This boost to rural incomes has driven the sale of cars,
have reduced the economic well-being of current and motorcycles, tractors, and various other consumer
future generations to the attainment of a ‘high’ GDP goods in the economy, providing an important prop to
growth rate. By doing so, they are skirting existential the large-scale manufacturing sector. The other
(and difficult) questions about the growth process, significant contribution to growth has come from
distributional aspects of the growth, the sustainability construction and its allied industries. The robustness
and inclusiveness of it, if the lives of people were of the wholesale and retail sector is counter-
changed for the better, and the ecological impact. intuitive and is based more on an imputed flow
Perhaps most fundamentally, the question of ‘marketable surpluses’ from the
avoided is: how desirable is growth of this commodity-producing sector (if I
nature that benefits so few? remember correctly the imputed
value used by the Pakistan Bureau of
Many years ago, at the height of the ‘India Statistics is as high as 33pc).
Shining’ political slogan, then-
celebrated Indian editor and Overall, how much of the growth
commentator M.J. Akbar wrote: a was policy-induced? Given
“7% growth (rate) for the 7%”, that some of the sectors
highlighting the skewed showed strong momentum
nature of the benefits. on the back of policy
Warren Buffet has described measures — such as the
it differently, as a “tide that has construction package, support to
lifted all the yachts”. the export sector, and the State Bank’s
substantial injection of liquidity combined
At an important level, the with a slashing of interest rates — the government
fixation with the growth rate is revealing can rightly claim credit for a significant portion of the
about how narrow-based and self-serving definitions growth. Its efforts are even more commendable given
of ‘economic well-being’ have become. A high economic the challenging context. This is amply demonstrated by
growth rate confers a ‘halo effect’, and all other issues the over 7pc contraction recorded by India’s economy
— however existential for a majority of the population in the same period.
— are moved to the shadows.
On the flip side, factors beyond the control of the
Having said that, a few short comments about the government (such as favourable conditions in the crop
number itself may be in order to give perspective. First, sector, and a bounce from the base effect) played a
the reported growth rate may be implausible to some crucial role as well. The other important question the
(and unpalatable to many), but it is certainly not an government should be asking is ‘how sustainable’ is the
impossibility. The momentum in many economic growth bounce? Already, there are significant
indicators, especially high frequency ones, was headwinds to growth in the year ahead emanating from
confirming a strong pick-up in economic activity post- IMF conditionality. The finance minister will also need
second wave of Covid. Whether this would have caused to be careful with his spending plans. Unless calibrated
GDP to grow by three per cent, 3.3pc or 3.9pc is moot, well, any fiscal stimulus runs the clear and present

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danger of overheating the economy and causing a In the longer run, only much-needed reforms will make
build-up of difficult-to-manage pressure on the growth sustainable. The silver lining? The government
external account. is focusing on the right reform areas such as
agriculture, exports and the power sector. In addition,
All in all, we have been down this path on several the finance minister has talked about ‘inclusive’ as well
occasions in the past, unfortunately, with loud as ‘sustainable’ growth. If the government manages to
triumphalism of the mission-accomplished type from walk the talk, it will be a structural break from the past.
government spokespersons, and gushing accolades
from stock market analysts and other cheerleaders. Learning from the past, the government needs to
Each time, the country has failed to maintain its growth demonstrate a measure of humility, coupled with a
acceleration for more than three to four years. There is realisation of the long road ahead. It needs to put its
a cautionary tale in our recent history. head down and focus on seeing through the reforms it
has started, and take a hard look at areas it has missed.

. © DAWN

Pakistan’s outgoing FY 2020-21 is ending on a high note. The country boasts more than 3.9 percent GDP growth (almost double
the official target) and positive numbers from exports, large-scale manufacturing, agriculture, and other sectors. Thus, the pre-
budget debate is a prominent topic among economists and financial experts. When the 2020-21 budget was announced last year
total outlay was Rs 7,294 billion, significantly less than in FY 2019-20. Many economists and financial experts were not
impressed. However, as the government remained defiant, the final quarter of the current fiscal year justified many critical
decisions and provided answers to many questions. The reduction in Public Sector Development Programmes from Rs 1,613
billion to Rs 1,324 billion trigged much criticism. The government was seen as breaking its promise to boost public-sector
development. As an economist, however, I could see where we were headed in terms of securing larger-scale stability. To
achieve this, the government had to disrupt the existing financial system. And we saw stability in the form of rupee-to-dollar
value, record remittances, record tax revenues, and controlled expenses. It is critical to emphasise the difference in
performance markers between the PTI and its predecessors. During the last PML-N government, the current account deficit
was $19.2 billion, while the PTI enjoyed a surplus of $959 million (January-March 2021). Similarly, the agriculture industry grew
by 2.7 percent during FY 2019-20, with record production in major and minor crops after many years.

As the new financial year begins, the government appears to be shifting gears toward a growth-oriented economy and a budget
outlook that reflects that. What does this mean for the incoming FY 2021-22 at a time when the political arena is calling for an
“awam dost” (public-friendly) budget once more? I would save number predictions for later and instead concentrate on what
needs to be done to achieve ‘growth’. Despite our economic challenges and a hopeful outlook for the future, Pakistan’s real
challenge has always been consistency in policy implementation and execution. As the high monetary policy rate of 7 percent
is unlikely to change during FY 2021-22, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin’s biggest challenge will be aligning financial institutions
with a dedicated focus on various sectors to the high policy rate. As a result, we must transition to a ‘growth or directional
economy’. Successful implementation of a directional economy is critical for Pakistan’s future growth because it will clearly
define a methodology and fundamentally alter economic and financial measures to achieve the specific growth goal. Consider
the rise of neoliberalism in China as it transitioned to focus on economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s. What occurred remains
unprecedented in any other global economy. Chinese economists achieved a delicate balance between neoliberal development
and economic determinism – encapsulating the true spirit of a directional or growth economy. China entered a new era by
consciously focusing on de-regularisation and the core principles of a free-market and growth-led economy. Experts also
associate neoliberalism with the Margaret Thatcher era of 1979–1990 and Ronald Reagan.

Developing a thorough understanding of a directional economy could be the key success factor that the government is
overlooking. What I mean by this is a critical examination of all public institutions, as well as a deliberate shift to a technocratic
governance model. It also implies streamlining the government, further reducing government spending, and encouraging the
marketisation of social services. In Pakistan’s case, we can broaden our directional economy practice by combining
neoliberalism, authoritarianism, and socialism. This would imply that the government would be forced to privatise loss-making
institutions, implement a moderate free-market mechanism, and retain state control over vital national assets. As a result, we
can integrate into a global neoliberalism model while not completely surrendering to it. This, however, should not be confused
with ‘macroeconomic prudence’. We continue to aim for a broader tax base while allowing financial liberalism in carefully chosen
sectors. Unlike previous governments, including Ishaq Dar’s Rupee Melodrama, the current administration is entirely focused
on bringing about fundamental changes in multiplier industries. The significant determinants for growth-led strategy industries
include untapped capacity in national and international markets, improved production capabilities, and potential market
consumption. These must consist of multiplier industries such as IT, construction and housing, tourism, automobiles, SMEs, blue
economy promotion (maritime affairs), and more. The importance of an export-focused strategy for these sectors must also be
considered in promoting growth. The specified industries must be boosted by increasing consumption and production.

Today’s growth mindset amongst the leadership must be maintained since it will be pivotal in planning and devising strategies.
The leadership must crack the code on discovering novel ways to promote growth across the entire economic fabric – thus a
cleverly designed directional or growth economy. © Daily Times

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 Redefining Pak-US Relations
Zahid Hussain

WITH the last of the American soldiers packing to leave Pakistan is not only still important for the US for a
Afghanistan, post-9/11 US-Pakistan relations have smooth exit from Afghanistan but also for its post-
come full circle. Originally touted as a strategic withdrawal security plans in the region. In a recent
alliance, it morphed into a transactional one over the statement, a Pentagon spokesman said that the Biden
years. With American forces leaving Afghanistan, there administration is in negotiations with Pakistan and
is now a move to reset the alignment. There is, other regional countries on the option of having US
however, no indication yet of the relationship moving bases there.
away from the Afghan pivot.
Apparently, the US wants a presence in the region as
While the foreign policy priorities of the Biden part of its efforts to counter the global terrorist groups
administration are more or less defined, there is no making Afghanistan the centre of their activities after
likelihood of any major shift in its policy towards the withdrawal of foreign forces. Washington also
Pakistan. For the past several years, Washington has wants Pakistan to continue providing the US overflight
seen Pakistan purely from the Afghan prism and there access to Afghanistan after the troops’ withdrawal.
is no indication that the Biden administration will be Surely after entering into an alliance with the US after
deviating from that policy approach. 9/11 Pakistan did allow the use of its airbases for US
planes in the invasion of Afghanistan. But those were
Relations are likely to remain largely transactional with closed down several years ago.
some convergence of interest between the two in the
Afghan peace process. Pakistan’s support remains Pakistan has also provided ground and air lines of
critical for America’s exit from Afghanistan and to bring communication for supplies to
to an end the two-decade-long war in the region. Fast- Nato forces operating in
changing regional geopolitics including Pakistan’s Afghanistan. But they
growing strategic nexus with China may also cast a were closed for the
shadow over the Biden administration’s policy towards supply of
Islamabad. weapons.
Pakistani
It has been six months since the Biden administration officials have
took over, but there has not been any contact between denied that any
the two erstwhile allies at the highest level. Except for negotiation on military bases
a few telephonic conversations between senior is being held with Washington.
American officials and the Pakistani civil But the controversy over the
and military leadership that largely issue refuses to die.
revolved around
Afghan conflict, It remains unclear whether or not US
there have not Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin
been any serious raised the issue of bases in his last
negotiations that telephonic conversation with army chief
could define the Gen Qamar Bajwa. The US officials would not
framework of the comment on whether any serious negotiations on a
future course of ‘possible basing agreement’ is underway.But it is very
bilateral ties. clear that the US wants to ‘stay in the game’ in
Afghanistan and sees a role for Pakistan in this
Lot of importance game. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a
has been attached to the recent meeting recent interview to BBC declared that it was in
between US National Security Adviser Jake Pakistan’s own interest to do so. He made it very
Sullivan and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed clear that the US was only withdrawing its troops from
Yusuf in Geneva. It was the first face-to-face high-level the country and was not leaving Afghanistan.
official contact between the two governments. The
meeting was reportedly held at very short notice. Jack This makes Pakistan’s predicament more serious. The
Sullivan was attending a conference in the Swiss city. Afghan endgame remains tricky with the postponement
of the peace conference in Istanbul after the Afghan
A short joint statement issued after the talks said: Taliban’s refusal to attend it. This has jeopardised the
“Both sides discussed a range of bilateral, regional, and possibility of the Afghan government and the insurgent
global issues of mutual interest and discussed ways to group reaching an agreement on the future political
advance practical cooperation.” There is, however, no set-up in Afghanistan before the American withdrawal.
indication yet of the Biden administration willing to The situation has become more complicated with the
redefine its relationship with Pakistan beyond insurgents continuing their military offensive as the US
America’s regional security prism. is expected to complete the withdrawal of forces by
July 4, weeks before the Sept 11 deadline.

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Inevitably, the withdrawal of American forces from We certainly need to have a broad-based relationship
Afghanistan will have a huge impact on regional with the US but should not get pulled into any new
geopolitics. The country’s strategic location has ‘game’ on America’s behalf. The resetting of our
historically made it vulnerable to the involvement of relationship with America will certainly not be easy. We
outside powers and proxy battles. need to be extremely clear about our interests and
priorities when negotiating the terms of the
A major concern has been that the American military relationship.
withdrawal could lead Afghanistan to further descend
into chaos fuelling a full-scale civil war with India, © DAWN
Russia and Iran backing different factions
and dragging Pakistan into a protracted
conflict. The spillover effects of spiralling
instability and conflict in Afghanistan
could be disastrous. Meanwhile,
changing regional geopolitics have
created a new alignment of forces. The
growing strategic alliance between the
US and India and the China-Pakistan axis
reflect these emerging geopolitics.
Pakistan needs to tread a cautious path as
it seeks to reset its relations with the United
States. Surely we must cooperate with the US in
achieving peace in Afghanistan but it’s not in
our interest to become part of any new US
‘game’ in the region. The use of Pakistani
soil for America’s post-withdrawal
counter-insurgency strategy could
suck the country into yet another conflict.

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 CPEC – Facts and Fog
Inam Ul Haque

Last week, in “CPEC: Understanding the Behemoth — construction of major thermal power, hydropower,
Facts and Myth”, we covered the conceptual framework coal-gasification and renewable power generation
of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This projects. It supports ‘power transmission networks’ to
week, we continue to discuss the ‘eight core areas’ of enhance ‘power transmission and supply reliability’.
the agreed CPEC architecture. CPEC has strong focus This entails construction of high-voltage power grids,
on social development, population welfare and poverty power transmission and distribution networks and
alleviation along its command areas… unlike any other developing the related industry to manufacture the
programme of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), entire range of energy sector equipment. This area is
World Bank etc. especially critical, as the enhanced power produced by
WAPDA — under its agile leadership — needs to reach
The first core area deals with the ‘integrated the end-user, to be encashed… boosting industrial
transportation system’, including production and revenues.
construction/development of Kashghar-Islamabad,
Peshawar-Islamabad-Karachi, Sukkur-Gwadar and Catering especially to the Chinese hunger for fossil
Dera Ismail Khan-Quetta-Sorab-Gwadar road fuel, the long-term plan (LTP) agreed to diversify oil
infrastructure. CPEC will expand the capacity of supplies and cooperate in developing oil/gas resources
existing railway lines (specifically the strategic Main and research. It develops storages along the CPEC
Line (ML-1) besides new projects and modernise route. Other initiatives comprise optimising Pakistan’s
railways. coal-sourcing and utilisation; developing surface-coal
gasification, expansion of the coal mining sector;
The Gwadar City Master Plan comprises Gwadar city, developing wind and solar enabled energy supply
port, a new international sources; promoting river planning and
airport and corresponding preparatory work for major
transport system, hydropower projects.
the However, this
construction area at
of East Bay inception,
Expressway and missed building large
enhancing the water
effectiveness of reservoirs, that
Gwadar Free Zone needs to be
to promote included.
social
progress Fourth, ‘trade
and and
economic industrial
development. parks’. This core area targets textile and garment
industry for quality improvement, value addition,
Second, is ‘information network infrastructure’. This competitiveness and efficiency improvement to help
includes construction/operation of local Pakistan’s exports and enhance mutually beneficial
communications (broadcast and TV networks), regional cooperation. Special economic zones (SEZs)
strengthening bilateral information and communication are envisaged in all Pakistani provinces/regions and in
to synchronise construction of ‘information, road and China (Kashghar Economic and Technological
railway infrastructure’. It also contains laying of cross- Development Zone and Caohu Industrial Park).
border optical fiber and ‘backbone optical fiber
networks’ in Pakistan, besides upgrading Pakistan’s China resolves cooperation with the Pakistani
network facilities, national data center and the second industry… from assembling imported
submarine cable landing station. Pakistan is to adopt parts/components to localised manufacture besides
China’s Digital Terrestrial Multimedia Broadcasting Chinese investment for development of energy-
(DTMB) standard. efficient industry. China shall promote industrial
cooperation in sectors like chemical/pharmaceutical,
This core area aims to improve Pakistan’s Information engineering goods, agriculture, iron/steel, light
Communication Technology (ICT) — enabled manufacturing, home appliances and construction
development like e-government/e-commerce; materials etc. The focus is to use energy-efficient and
electronic monitoring of borders and safe city projects; environment-friendly processes/equipment, helping
and building IT industrial parks and IT industry clusters. Pakistan’s exports.
Human resource and technology exchange is inbuilt in
these programmes. Both sides agreed to increase exploration and
development of mineral resources, setting up mineral
Third, cooperation in ‘energy related’ fields. It spans processing zones and industries, besides expanding
collaboration in oil and gas, electricity/power grids, trade logistics, business-to-business (B2B) relations,

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bilateral and balanced trade structure. LTP envisages representatives and students — from regions along
establishment of special customs supervision areas CPEC — are planned in China, besides cultural
along CPEC, to achieve information docking and exchanges. Educational and research institutions are
standardised data exchange, enhancing trade to cooperate in knowledge, technology transfer and
facilitation. R&D. LTP plans social/economic development
cooperation, medical assistance and vocational
Fifth, ‘agricultural development and poverty alleviation’. training for communities.
This area encompasses biological
breeding/production/processing, Drought prevention and disaster relief cooperation
storage/transportation, infrastructure construction, through comprehensive planning of water resources
disease prevention and control, water resources and river-basin development, utilisation, conservation
utilisation and land development etc. ICT-enabled and protection, are some other areas planned, that
agriculture and marketing of agricultural goods is directly affect public livelihood and welfare.
expected to develop systematic, large-scale and
standardised agricultural industry. Eighth core area is ‘financial cooperation’. LTP
emphasises a multi-layered cooperation and policy
The core area focuses on upgrading agricultural coordination covering financial reform, opening-up,
infrastructure like water-saving techniques, modern innovation of financial products/services and risk
agricultural zones, increasing productivity of mitigation to create conducive financial environment. It
medium/low-yield land, and strengthening drip includes monetary cooperation between central banks
irrigation technology. Both sides are to cooperate in and financial regulatory agencies; implementing and
crop farming, livestock breeding, forestry, food expanding existing bilateral currency swap
growing, aquatic and fishery etc. arrangements; assigning foreign currency to domestic
banks to support project-financing; and encouraging
Cooperation is to extend to areas such as improving payment settlement in RMB and rupees, to reduce
post-harvest handling, storage and transportation of reliance on third-party currency.
agricultural products; innovation in marketing and
sales models; improving water resource Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payment System (CIPS) is
operation/management; developing pastoral areas and used for clearing/settlement and promoting free but
deserts; application of remote sensing technology; orderly flow of capital. China supports Pakistan’s
cooperation in production of pesticides, fertilizer, cooperation with the Asian Infrastructure Investment
machinery and support services like agriculture Bank (AIIB). Both sides encourage loans from
education and research; and collaborate in forestry, international banks and seek improved cross-border
horticulture (and horticulture products), fisheries and credit system and financial services like export credit,
livestock medicines and vaccines. project financing, syndicated loan, trade finance,
financial lease, business in RMB, assets management
Sixth, ‘tourism’. Both countries agree to exploit the and e-banking, etc.
tourism potential of regions along CPEC, especially the
China-Pakistan border areas, coastal belt and across Cooperation between financial markets like stock
border. LTP encompasses improvement in quality of exchanges, securities markets besides multi-currency
bilateral tourism services like public information, direct financing of Pakistan’s central/local
transportation and security protection. governments and direct financing of projects (in each
other’s capital markets) is agreed upon. Gwadar Port
Tourism follows “2+1+5” spatial structure; with ‘two Free Zone is to benefit from the experience of Shanghai
centers’ (Karachi and Gwadar), ‘one axis’ (coastal Pilot Free Trade Zone.
tourism development belt) and ‘five tourist zones’ of
Jiwani/Gwadar tourism zone, Jhal-Jhao, Ormara, © The Express Tribune
Sonmiani and Keti Bander… connected through a
‘tour route’ and themed on coastal leisure and
vacationing.

Seventh, ‘social development and non-government

exchanges’. This core area constitutes
cooperation between local governments, NGOs,
people-to-people friendship and social
development in cities along CPEC. This
shall provide an enabling social
environment for CPEC projects,
especially in restive Balochistan. Node
cities are to benefit from China’s new
urbanisation concepts like public
transport, water supply and drainage
systems through pilot projects, utilising
China’s strength in technology, equipment,
and capital.

Training programmes for Pakistani

officials, parties, local government

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 Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and
Opportunity
President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw the if the Taliban still refuse to negotiate, they will be
remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by choosing the peace of the grave.
September represents a turning point for the country
and our neighbors. The Afghan government respects To avoid that fate, the Taliban must answer critical
the decision and views it as a moment of both questions about their vision for Afghanistan. Will they
opportunity and risk for itself, for Afghans, for the accept elections, and will they will commit to uphold
Taliban, and for the region. the rights of all Afghans, including girls, women, and
minorities? Negative answers to those questions were
For me, as the elected leader of the Islamic Republic of suggested by the Taliban’s recent decision to pull out of
Afghanistan, it is another opportunity to reiterate and a peace conference that was supposed to begin in
further my commitment to peace. In February 2018, I Istanbul at the end of April. The Taliban, it seems,
made an unconditional offer of peace to the Taliban. remain more interested in power than in peace. A
That was followed by a three-day cease-fire in June of political settlement and the integration of the Taliban
that year. In 2019, a loya jirga (grand council) that I into society and government is the only way forward.
convened mandated negotiations with the Taliban, and But the ball is in their court.
since then, my government has worked to build a
national consensus on the need for a political THE FUTURE THAT AFGHANS WANT
settlement that would comport with the values of the
Afghan constitution and the UN’s Universal Declaration Afghans cannot and absolutely will not go back to the
of Human Rights. My government remains ready to horrors of the 1990s. We are not idly waiting for peace
continue talks with the Taliban. And, if it meant peace to chance upon us but continue to take steps to create
would be secured, I am willing to end my term early. the environment and platform for it to take hold. The
risks of the U.S. withdrawal have been widely
For the Afghan nation, the announcement of the U.S. propagated in the news media, but we
withdrawal is another phase in our long-term see little serious discourse
partnership with the United States. about the opportunities it
Afghanistan has been through presents.
consequential withdrawals
before. In 2014, the year I first All international stakeholders and the
took office, 130,000 U.S. and Afghan people want a sovereign,
NATO forces withdrew, Islamic, democratic, united, neutral, and
allowing Afghans full connected Afghanistan. The Afghan people
leadership of the security affirmed their support for that end state at a
sector and of the institutions peace jirga in August 2020. The international
that our international community affirmed its desire for that end state
partners had helped us build. in March 2020 when the UN Security Council
Since then, the Afghan adopted Resolution 2513, which made clear that the
National Defense and world does not want the return of the Taliban’s emirate.
Security Forces (ANDSF) have
protected and upheld the republic and made it possible It is far less clear, however, what the Taliban want. They
for the country to carry out two national elections. demand an Islamic system—but that already exists in
Today, our government and our security forces are on Afghanistan. For any negotiations over a political
a much stronger footing than we were seven years ago, settlement between the Afghan government and the
and we are fully prepared to continue serving and Taliban to succeed, the Taliban must articulate their
defending our people after American troops depart. desired end state with clarity and detail.

The withdrawal also represents an opportunity for the Negotiations would require a credible and neutral
Afghan people to achieve real sovereignty. Over the mediator. That need is highlighted by the talks in Doha
past 20 years, 40 different countries have deployed between the Afghan government and the Taliban; the
security forces to Afghanistan. Soon, however, all talks lack such a mediator and have, so far, reached an
decisions regarding military approaches to the Taliban impasse. The best-placed organization for this role
and other terrorist groups will be made by the Afghan would be the United Nations.
government. Indeed, the Taliban’s justification for war—
The first topics of negotiation must be reaching the
jihad against a foreign power—will cease to apply.
desired end state and putting in place a comprehensive
The U.S. decision surprised the Taliban and their cease-fire to bring peace and respite to the daily lives
patrons in Pakistan, and it has forced them to make a of the Afghan people and to restore credibility and faith
choice. Will they become credible stakeholders, or will in the peacemaking process. Because cease-fires
they foster more chaos and violence? If the Taliban established during peace negotiations often fall apart,
choose the latter path, the ANDSF will fight them. And however, it is critical that we have international
monitoring.

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Next, the parties would have to discuss and decide on The Afghan people want a country that is sovereign,
a transitional administration. Although the structure of Islamic, democratic, united, and neutral.
the republic must remain intact, a peace administration
would maintain order and continuity while elections After a political settlement has been negotiated, inked,
were planned and held. This transitional authority and endorsed, the hard work of implementation would
would have a short tenure, and it would end begin. This is the process of building peace. There is
as soon as presidential, parliamentary, and always a temptation to make the temporary permanent,
local elections determined the which is why the peace government must prioritize
country’s new leadership. I would elections.
not run for office in such an
election, and I would readily In the interim, however, the transitional leadership
resign the presidency would have to make a series of hard decisions about
before the how to govern. Economic development, education and
official end of health services, and other key functions of the state
my current would have to continue without disruption. Any
term if it stoppage would have disastrous ramifications for
meant that my the Afghan people and for the economy. There
elected would also be new priorities, such as
successor releasing prisoners of war; integrating
would have a members of the Taliban in all levels of
mandate for government, the military, and society;
peace. and addressing the grievances of those
who have lost loved ones, property, and
The negotiations livelihoods during the past two decades
would confront of war.
difficult issues,
such as whether A newly elected government will have
and how the an important mandate to sustain
Taliban would peace and implement the agreement.
end their That may require making
relationship with amendments to the constitution. The
Pakistan, which constitution makes clear that, except
provides them for the Islamic character of the state
with support for and the fundamental rights of
logistics, finances, and recruitment. The citizens, all else is subject to amendment, and there are
talks must also address the Taliban’s mechanisms in place to enact those changes.
ongoing connections to al Qaeda,
The new government would also confront the
which the UN detailed in a 2020 report.
reintegration of refugees (particularly those who fled
Thus it is crucial that the Afghan government
to Iran and Pakistan), the resettlement of internally
and the Taliban also agree on an approach
displaced people, and the often overlooked issue of
against the Islamic State (or ISIS), al Qaeda, and
national reconciliation. Meanwhile, the transitional
other terrorist groups and that our
cease-fire would have to give way to a situation in
agreement include a framework for
which state institutions command a legitimate
counterterrorism that secures guarantees of
monopoly on the use of force. And Afghanistan would
support from other countries in the region and
need to commit to permanent neutrality in order to
from international organizations. The
mitigate the risk of regional conflicts. The UN General
agreement must also ensure the
Assembly or the UN Security Council would be the ideal
continuation of high- level regional diplomacy
venues for establishing and formalizing Afghanistan’s
and welcome the involvement of the UN
neutral status.
secretary-general’s personal representative.

Once the Afghan government and the THE PATH AHEAD

Taliban have reached a settlement, the Afghan
Even in an ideal environment, achieving a just and
people would need to publicly endorse it
lasting peace would not be an easy journey. And
through our country’s highest form of national
unfortunately, the environment we are operating in is
not ideal. There are many risks that this
process could be derailed or
disrupted, and Afghans may
lose yet another opportunity
for peace.
consensus building: a loya jirga, a grand meeting of
male and female community leaders from every For one, the perception of uncertainty, fueled by dire
province. The Taliban have been deprived of immersion predictions in the media, may incline many Afghans to
in Afghan society for the past 20 years, and a loya jirga leave the country. This could lead to a repeat of the
would offer an ideal opportunity for their leadership to refugee crisis that unfolded in 2015 and would deprive
interact with all segments of the population. the country of talented people right at the moment
when they are most needed.

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Another risk is that a disrupted or disorderly transition Should the Taliban choose violence, it would mean a
could threaten command and control within the major confrontation over the spring and summer
country’s security sector. There must be an orderly months, at the end of which the Taliban would be left
political process to transfer authority so that the with no good options except to come back to the
security forces are not left without leadership and negotiating table.
direction. Moreover, it is critically important that the
United States and NATO fulfill their existing Pakistan might also miscalculate in a way that
commitments to fund the ANDSF. This is perhaps the threatens peace. There have been positive signs that
single most important contribution that the Pakistan will choose the path of regional connectivity,
international community can make to a successful peace, and prosperity, as indicated in remarks
transition to peace in Afghanistan. delivered in March at the Islamabad Security Dialogue
by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and the
There is also a risk that Afghan political figures will not Pakistani army chief of staff, General Qamar Javed
galvanize around an orderly peace process. Thus we Bajwa. Those remarks could signify an important pivot
are reaching out to ensure that the process is inclusive, from a destructive to a constructive approach to
not only of internal political figures and different strata relations with Afghanistan. Now is the opportunity to
of Afghan society but also of regional actors who could put those words into action.
potentially attempt to spoil the process.
If Pakistan chooses to support the Taliban, however,
The main risk to peace, however, is a Taliban then Islamabad would be opting for enmity with the
miscalculation. The Taliban still believe their own Afghan nation and would be foregoing the enormous
narrative that they have defeated NATO and the United economic benefits that peace and regional connectivity
States. They feel emboldened, and because their would offer. Pakistan would become an international
political leaders have never encouraged their military pariah, as it would be left with no leverage in the
branch to accept the idea of peace, the greatest risk is aftermath of the U.S. troop withdrawal. The Pakistani
that the Taliban will continue to show no earnest government miscalculated in its response to the United
interest in making a political deal and will instead opt States’ plan of action for Afghanistan and the region,
for continued military aggression. but it is not too late for Islamabad to emerge as a
partner and stakeholder in an orderly peace process.
It is not too late for Pakistan to emerge as a partner
and stakeholder in an orderly peace process. As we move into uncharted waters for Afghanistan, I
am focused on achieving the best possible outcome of
If that is what happens, the Afghan government and the this long period of conflict: a sovereign, Islamic,
security forces are ready. As we prepare for peace democratic, united, neutral, and connected
talks with the Taliban, we are also prepared to face Afghanistan. I am willing to compromise and sacrifice
them on the battlefield. Over the last two years, more to achieve that. The withdrawal of U.S. troops is an
than 90 percent of Afghan military operations have opportunity to get us closer to that end state, but only
been conducted entirely by Afghan security forces. if all Afghans and their international partners commit
to a clear path forward and stay the course.

© Foreign Affairs

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 India Policy Revisited
Javid Hussain

PAKISTAN’S India policy has generally suffered from The balance of power between Pakistan and India, more
the constant tussle between wishful thinking based on than anything else, will determine the shape of their
merely legal and moral arguments, on the one hand, future relationship and the ultimate outcome of their
and the compulsions of power realities at the national, outstanding disputes, especially on Kashmir. So it is
regional and global levels, on the other. Our actual imperative for Pakistan to build up its relative national
policy has vacillated between these two extremes power vis-à-vis India. On the other hand, India can be
creating the impression of confusion, inconsistency of expected to employ every instrument of policy, overtly
purpose and lack of a sense of direction. and covertly, to destabilise Pakistan politically and
weaken it economically, to bring it to its knees for the
Our official pronouncements on India and Kashmir, the sake of establishing its hegemony in the region and
core dispute, are generally tactical and short-term in achieving the settlement of outstanding disputes on its
nature responding to day-to-day developments. They own terms. It will not desist even from fomenting
do not reflect a well-crafted long-term policy which is terrorism in Pakistan as the arrest of Indian spy
grounded in power realities and which weaves its Kulbhushan Jadhav in Balochistan in March 2016
political, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions conclusively proves.
into a coherent whole within the framework of a grand
strategy. What we need is a long-term and strategic Pakistan must formulate its long-term India policy
approach to give a sense of direction and steadiness of keeping in view the foregoing analysis and the growing
purpose to our India policy. strategic partnership between the US and India to
contain the expansion of China’s power and
We need a long-term and strategic influence in South Asia and the Indian
approach in our India policy. Ocean region, which inevitably will push
Pakistan closer to China so as to
Our long-term India policy must be maintain a strategic balance in
based on an accurate South Asia. In the long run,
understanding of India’s Pakistan’s security will be
strategic goals in the region, the ensured primarily by its
demands of Pakistan’s political stability,
independence, security and economic and
economic progress, and technological power,
the regional and global and a credible
strategic security deterrent.
environment.
India’s main Simultaneously,
strategic goal is to we should pursue
establish its a low-risk and
hegemony in South Asia and the India Ocean region. It non-adventurist foreign policy to minimise chances of
views an independent and strong Pakistan as the a major armed conflict, allowing the country to allocate
biggest hurdle in the fulfilment of its hegemonic the lion’s share of its resources to economic
ambitions. According to Indian security analyst C. Raja development. Trade with India should be conducted on
Mohan, the creation of Pakistan left India with a a level playing field while promoting Pakistan’s
persistent conflict with the former and an internal economic growth and well-being.
Hindu-Muslim divide, separated India geographically
from Afghanistan and Iran, and created profound Within this framework, Pakistan should try to defuse
problems for India’s engagement with the Muslim tensions and adopt confidence-building measures in its
Middle East. relations with India while maintaining a principled
position on outstanding disputes like Kashmir, Sir
India’s hegemonic ambitions in the region pose an Creek and Siachen. In view of India’s hegemonic
enduring threat to Pakistan’s independence, security ambitions and intransigence, any breakthrough in the
and economic well-being over and above the negative settlement of the Kashmir dispute can be safely ruled
repercussions of Kashmir, Sir Creek, Siachen and out in the foreseeable future. The best that can be
Pakistan-India water disputes. These factors are major hoped for in the short term is the cessation of
obstacles in the way of good-neighbourly relations hostilities across the Line of Control and efforts to
between the two countries. There are no indications safeguard the human rights of Kashmiris in Indian-
that in the foreseeable future India will give up its occupied Kashmir through demilitarisation and local
hegemonic ambitions or agree to a just settlement of autonomy. For the long term, Pakistan should build up
the Kashmir dispute. The coming decades will witness its national power, especially its economic and
continued tensions and hostility between the two technological strength, and go for a final settlement at
states. an opportune time.

© DAWN

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 Essay of the Month
Crisis of Good Governance in Pakistan: Need for Reforms and Institution Building

OUTLINE
1. Introduction
Good governance is a product of good policies and vibrant institutions. In
Pakistan, governance crisis is widespread, therefore, a complete overhaul
of poorly run institutions and comprehensive policy reforms are the need
of the hour.

2. What are the Key Tenets of Good Governance?

Six core principles of good governance as described by Goran Hyden in
“Making Sense of Governance”.

3. Non-existence of Good Governance in Pakistan

a. Absence of rule of law
b. Corruption has become order of the day costing billions of dollars to the
economy
c. Inadequate health and educational infrastructure
d. Haemorrhaging owing to mismanagement and bad governance
e. Non-existence of Good Governance in Pakistan

4. Causative Factors behind this Deplorable Situation in the Country

a. Frequent derailment of democracy
b. Impotent and puny judiciary
c. Nepotism in public sector and bureaucracy
d. Lack of political will and direction
e. Dearth of accountability across the board

5. Reforms and Institution Building: Roadmap to Good Governance

a. Maintaining uninterrupted democracy
b. Boosting administrative competitiveness
c. Focusing on education as a strategic imperative
d. Overcoming the economic crisis
e. Revamping and reforming critical institutions

6. Conclusion
Maintaining The crisis of good governance is widespread in Pakistan which
must be ameliorated by introducing measured reforms and
institutionalization.

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