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Conditional Probability-Lesson Plan

The math lesson plan introduces conditional probability to 10th grade algebra students over 42 minutes. Students will practice finding conditional probabilities using data and the multiplication rule. They will determine if events are independent by comparing conditional and unconditional probabilities. Formative assessments include a Do Now activity and group work on Jamboard. Students will be placed in differentiated groups to work through practice problems of increasing difficulty with teacher support.

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1K views3 pages

Conditional Probability-Lesson Plan

The math lesson plan introduces conditional probability to 10th grade algebra students over 42 minutes. Students will practice finding conditional probabilities using data and the multiplication rule. They will determine if events are independent by comparing conditional and unconditional probabilities. Formative assessments include a Do Now activity and group work on Jamboard. Students will be placed in differentiated groups to work through practice problems of increasing difficulty with teacher support.

Uploaded by

api-553697171
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Math Lesson Plan

Athanasios Kamberis
Grade level: 10th Grade – Algebra 2 # of Students: 34 (remote)

Topic: Conditional Probability Length of lesson: 42 minutes

Desired Results

Established goals: Students will build on their knowledge of probability by applying


their learned skills to real world applications.
Students will understand that the probability of an event occurring can depend on the
outcome of another event.
Students will understand how the formula involving conditional probability is derived and
how it can establish independence between events.

Content Standard(s):

New York State Mathematics Learning Standards


CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.CP.A.2
Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring
together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are
independent.

CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.CP.B.8
Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A)
= P(B)P(A|B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

Objective: Essential Questions:


Students will be able to… - What is the probability of this event
- Find the conditional probability of occurring if we know that this other
an event by looking at data. event will occur?
- Find the conditional probability of - Are these two events independent?
an event by using the multiplication - The conditional probability of this
rule for conditional probability. event is equal to the probability of
- Determine if 2 events are the event occurring without a given,
independent. what does this tell us?

Vocabulary: Materials and Instructional Resources:


- Probability - Google Slides
- Conditional Probability - Google Form
- And - Jamboard
- Independent - Zoom
- Dependent
Differentiation
Students will be placed in breakout rooms and work in groups on an assigned problem.
These groups will be formed based on their responses to the collected Do Now
assessment. Each group will include students who answered the Do Now correctly and
students who possibly did not understand it fully. There a variety of different types of
problems in the lesson and each problem is scaled so the level of cognitive demand
gradually increases as the lesson progresses. Different explanations will be provided to
students to account for the variety of ways students may prefer to learn.
 Teacher check-ins
 Breakdown of directions
 Positive reinforcement
 Alternative explanations
 Repetition
 Visual Aids
 Comfortable Learning Environment

Assessment

Performance Task:
Formative assessment
- Students will be complete a Do Now that gives them a scenario that involves the
idea of conditional probability. Students will submit their responses on a Google
Form and these responses can be seen by the teacher.
Informative assessment
- Students will work in breakout rooms on Jamboard. We can occasionally observe
breakout rooms and student work on Jamboard to see how students are performing
on the exercise given to them.

Learning Plan

Instructional Procedure
Provide Examples and then Immediate Feedback
What is the probability of throwing an Ultra Ball if we didn’t replace what we used for
the first Pokemon? (Related to the problem in the Do Now, this is a conditional
probability example and students should get 2/5.) If we only look at home games, what is
the probability the Knicks won at home? (3/5 as we found that the probability of choosing
a home game is 5/8 and the knicks won 3/5. This begins the lesson of conditional
probability.) If the conditional probability of this event is equal to the probability of it
normally occurring, how is it related to our given event? (In a conditional probability
example if P(A|B)=P(A) then we can A and B are independent of each other so the
outcome of B has no effect on the outcome of A.)

Modeling: “I do”
Reviewing the Do Now that students worked on individually in a quick span will warm
up the “I do” section of this lesson. The first 2 examples are also for the “I Do” section as
I will introduce the process behind understanding conditional probability. An example of
a scenario involving independence between height and myths of increasing height will be
thoroughly explained.

Guided Practice: “We do”


The final example involving drivers and their wins with different cars will follow the “We
do” model. Students will be presented each step of solving the problem and be asked to
complete each step in front of their classmates. Each question they are asked will be given
context and the answers students provide will add to solving the question about the impact
of the cars being driven.

Collaborative Work: “You do”


Students will begin the lesson with a Do Now that they work on independently. The
summary and review of their responses will be under the “I do” model, but they will work
on their responses independently. After the final example of the “We do” model students
will be put into groups and will be assigned to a slide on Jamboard to post their responses
to a question provided on the slide. Students will receive time within their groups to come
up with a solution and then as a class, we will review the responses of every group. This
will add accountability as students will be aware that their responses will be seen by their
classmates.

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