REGRESSION

1. What is regression?
Ans: The probable movement of one variable in terms of the other variables is called
regression.

In other words the statistical technique by which we can estimate the unknown value of
one variable (dependent) from the known value of another variable is called regression.

The term “regression” was used by a famous Biometrician Sir. F. Galton (1822-1911) in
1877.

Example: The productions of paddy of amount y is dependent on rainfall of amount x.

Here x is independent variable and y is dependent variable.

2. Define regression analysis.

Ans: Regression analysis is a mathematical measure of the average relationship between
two or more variables in terms of the original units of data.

3. Define regression coefficient.

Ans: The mathematical measures of regression are called the coefficient of regression.

Let, (x1,y1), (x2,y2)……….. (xn,yn) be the pairs of n observations. Then the regression
coefficient of y on x is denoted by byx and defined by
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )2
byx = i=1

Again, the regression coefficient of x on y is denoted by bxy and defined by

 n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
bxy = i=1

4. Regression lines:
If we consider two variables X and Y, we shall have two regression lines as the
regression line of Y on X and the regression line of X on Y. The regression line of Y on
X gives the most probable values of Y for given values of X and The regression line of
X on Y gives the most probable values of X for given values of Y. Thus we have two
regression lines. However, when there is either perfect positive or perfect negative
correlation between the two variables, the two regression lines will coincide i.e, we will
have one line.

5. Regression equation:
The regression equation of y on x is expressed as follows:

y = a + bx , where y is the dependent variable to be estimated and x is the independent

variable, a is the intercept term (assume mean) and b is the slope of the line.
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1

∑ −b ∑ xy n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )2
Here, a = y - bx = n n and b= i=1

n n

∑ xi yi−
( )( )
∑ xi ∑ yi
i =1 i=1

n
n 2

n
∑ x i2 −
(∑ )
i =1
xi

= i =1 n

Similarly, the regression equation of x on y is expressed as follows:

x = a + by, where x is the dependent variable to be estimated and y is the independent

variable, a is the intercept term (assume mean) and b is the slope of the line.

Here, a = x - by
 n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
And b= i=1

n n

∑ xi yi−
(∑ )(∑ )
i=1
xi
i=1
yi

n
n 2

n
∑ y i2 −
(∑ )i =1
yi

= i=1 n

6. Write down the Properties of regression coefficient.

Ans: 1. Regression coefficient is independent of change of origin but not of scale.

2. Regression coefficient lies between - ¿ to + ¿ . i.e, -< ¿ byx < ¿ .

3. Regression coefficient is not symmetric. i.e, bxy ¿ byx

4. The geometric mean of regression coefficients is equal to correlation coefficient

i.e, rxy= √ b yx ×b xy
5. The arithmetic mean of two regression coefficient is greater than correlation

b yx +b xy
Coefficient. i.e,
( 2
≥ ) rxy

6. If one of regression coefficient is greater than unity the other must be less than

unity. i.e, byx ¿ 1 and bxy<1

7. Regression coefficient is not pure number.

Coefficient of Determination, r 2  or  R2 :

   The coefficient of determination, r 2, is useful because it gives the proportion of
      the variance (fluctuation) of one variable that is predictable from the other
variable.
      It is a measure that allows us to determine how certain one can be in making
      predictions from a certain model/graph.
    The coefficient of determination is the ratio of the explained variation to the total
      variation.
    The coefficient of determination is such that 0 <  r 2 < 1,  and denotes the strength
      of the linear association between x and y. 
    The coefficient of determination represents the percent of the data that is the
closest
      to the line of best fit.  For example, if r = 0.922, then r 2 = 0.850, which means that
      85% of the total variation in y can be explained by the linear relationship between
x
      and y (as described by the regression equation).  The other 15% of the total
variation
      in y remains unexplained.
    The coefficient of determination is a measure of how well the regression line
      represents the data.  If the regression line passes exactly through every point on
the scatter plot, it would be able to explain all of the variation. The further the line is
      away from the points, the less it is able to explain.

7. Show that correlation coefficient is the geometric mean of

regression coefficients. i.e, rxy= √ b yx ×b xy
Proof: Let, (x1,y1), (x2,y2)………..(xn,yn) be the pairs of n observations. Then the
correlation coefficient between x and y is denoted by rxy and defined as,
n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )( y i− ȳ )
i=1
n n

rxy = √ ∑ ( xi − x̄ )2 ∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
i =1 i =1 ……………..(1)
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )2
Again, the regression coefficient of y on x is, byx = i=1
 n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
Again, the regression coefficient of x on y is, bxy = i=1

n n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ ) ∑ ( x i− x̄ )( yi − ȳ )
i=1
n
× i=1 n
2
∑ ( xi − x̄ ) ∑ ( y i− ȳ ) 2
byx ¿ bxy = i=1 i =1

n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )( y i− ȳ )
i=1
n n

√ b yx ×b xy= √ ∑ ( xi − x̄ )2 ∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
i =1 i =1

= rxy (proved)

8. The arithmetic mean of two regression coefficient is greater than

correlation coefficient. i.e,

( b +b2 )≥
yx xy

rxy
Proof: Let, (x1,y1), (x2,y2)……….. (xn,yn) be the pairs of n observations. Then the
regression coefficient of y on x is denoted by b yx and the regression coefficient of x on y
is denoted by bxy.

b yx + b xy
The arithmetic mean of byx and bxy is A.M=
( 2 ) and the geometric mean is

√ b yx ×b xy
G.M=

We know, Correlation coefficient is the geometric mean of regression coefficients.

i.e, rxy= √ b yx ×b xy
Since, A.M ¿ G.M

b yx + b xy
or,
( 2 ) ¿ √ b yx ×b xy
b yx + b xy
( 2 ) ¿ r (proved
or,

9. Write down the uses of regression.

Ans: (i) Whether a relationship exists or not.

(ii) To find the strength of relationship.

(iii) Determination of mathematical equation.

(iv) Prediction the values of the dependent variables.

10.Distinguish between correlation coefficient and regression coefficient.

Correlation coefficient Regression coefficient.

1. The numerical value by which we measure 1. The mathematical measures of
the strength of linear relationship between regression are called the coefficient of
two or more variables is called correlation regression.
coefficient.

2. Correlation coefficient is independent of 2. Regression coefficient is independent

change of origin and scale of measurement. of change of origin but not of scale.

3. Correlation coefficient lies between -1 to 3. Regression coefficient lies between -

+1. i.e, -1< rxy < 1. ¿ to + ¿ . i.e, -< ¿ byx < ¿ .

4. Correlation coefficient is symmetric. i.e, 4. Regression coefficient is not

rxy= ryx symmetric. i.e, bxy ¿ byx
5. It is always unit free. 5. Regression coefficient is not pure
 number.

6. When r=0 then the variables are 6. When r=0 then two lines of regression
correlated. are perpendicular to each other.

Application problem-1: A researcher wants to find out if there is any relationship

between the ages of husbands and the ages of wives. In other words, do old husbands
have old wives and young husbands have young wives? He took a random sample of 7
couples whose respective ages are given below:

Age of Husband(in years):x 39 25 29 35 32 27 37

Age of wife(in years):y 37 18 20 25 25 20 30

(a) Compute the regression line of y on x.

(b) Predict the age of wife whose husband’s age in 45 years.
(c) Find the regression line of x on y and estimate the age of husband if the age of his
wife is 28 years.
(d) Compute the value of correlation coefficient with the help of regression
coefficients.

Solution: The equation of the best –fitted regression line of y on x is ^y = a + bx

n n

∑ xi yi−
(∑ )(∑ )
i=1
xi
i=1
yi

n
n 2

n
∑ x i2 −
( )
∑ xi
i=1

Where, b = i=1 n and a = y - bx

Computation table

x y x2 y2 xy
39 37 1521 1369 1443
25 18 625 324 450
29 20 841 400 580
35 25 1225 625 875
 32 25 1024 625 800
27 20 729 400 540
37 30 1369 900 1110
∑ x= 224 ∑ y=175 ∑ x2=7334 ∑ y 2= 4643 ∑ xy= 5798

n n

∑ xi yi−
( )(∑ )
∑ xi
i =1 i=1
yi

n
( 224 )( 175 )
n 2 5798−
n
∑ x i2 −
(∑ )
i =1
xi
7334−
7
( 224 )2
(a) Here, b = i =1 n =
7 = 1.193

And a = y - bx

∑y b
∑x
= n - n

175 ( 224 )
= 7 -(1.193) 7 = 25-38.176 = -13.176

Hence the fitted regression line is ^y = a + bx = -13.176 + 1.193x

(b) Hence, if the age of husband is 45, the probable age of wife would be
^y = -13.176 + 1.193x = -13.176 + 1.193 ¿ 45 = 40.51 years.
(c) The equation of the best –fitted regression line of y on x is ^x = a + by
n n

∑ xi yi−
(∑ )(∑ )
i=1
xi
i=1
yi

n
n 2

n
∑ y i2 −
(∑ )
i =1
yi

Where, b = i=1 n
 ( 224 )( 175 )
5798−
7
( 175 )2
4643−
= 7 = 0.739

And a= x - by
∑ x −b ∑ y
= n n
224 175
−0 . 739
= 7 7 = 13.525

Hence the fitted regression line is ^x = a + by = 13.525+ 0.739y

Hence, if the age of wife is 28 years, the estimate age of husband is

^x = a + by

= 13.525+ (0.739)(28) = 34.22 years.

Application problem-2: A research physician recorded the pulse rates and the
temperatures of water submerging the faces of ten small children in cold water to control
the abnormally rapid heartbeats. The results are presented in the following table.
Calculate the correlation coefficient and regression coefficients between temperature of
water and reduction in pulse rate.

Temperature of water 68 65 70 62 60 55 58 65 69 63
Reduction in pulse rate. 2 5 1 10 9 13 10 3 4 6
b yx +b xy
i)
( 2 ) ≥
rxy
Also show that (
Solution: Calculating table of correlation coefficient and regression coefficients.

xi yi xi2 yi2 xiyi

68 2 4624 4 136
65 5 4225 25 325
70 1 4900 1 70
62 10 3844 100 620
60 9 3600 81 540
55 13 3025 169 715
58 10 3364 100 580
65 3 4225 9 195
69 4 4761 16 276
63 6 3969 36 378
∑ x i= 635 ∑ yi= 63
∑ x i2 = 4053 ∑ y i2= 541 ∑ xi yi =3835
7
n n

∑ x i y i−
(∑ )(∑ )
i=1
xi
i=1
yi

√{
n 2 n 2

We know, rxy =
n
∑ x i2−
i=1
(∑ )
i=1
xi

n
}{ n
∑ y i 2−
i=1
(∑ ) i=1
n
yi
}
635×63
3835−
10
( 635 )2 ( 63 )2
= √{ 40537−
10
541−
10 }{ }
= -0.94
n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( xi − x̄ )2
We know, the regression coefficient of y on x is, byx = i=1
 n n

∑ xi yi−
( )(∑ )
∑ xi
i=1 i=1
yi

n
635×63
n 2 3835−
10
n
∑ x i2 −
(∑ )i =1
xi
40537−
( 635 )2 −1655
=
= i =1 n = 10 = = 2145 -
0.77

n
∑ ( x i− x̄ )( y i − ȳ )
i=1
n
∑ ( y i − ȳ )2
Again, the regression coefficient of x on y is, bxy = i=1

n n

∑ xi yi−
( )( )
∑ xi ∑ yi
i=1 i=1

n
635×63
n 2 3835−
10
n
∑ y i2 −
(∑ )
i =1
yi
541−
( 63 )2 −1655
=
= i=1 n = 10 = 1441 -1.1

b yx +b xy
(i)
( 2
≥) rxy

Here,
( b +2 b )= (−0 .77 )2+ (−1. 1)
yx xy

= -0.94 = rxy

Assignment Problem-1: The following data give the test scores and sales made by nine
salesmen during the last year of a big departmental store:

Test Scores: y 14 19 24 21 26 22 15 20 19
Sales(in lakh Taka) 31 36 48 37 50 45 33 41 39
(a) Find the regression equation of test scores on sales.
Ans: ^y = -2.4 + 0.56x
(b) Find the test scores when the sale is Tk. 40 lakh.
 Ans: 20 lakh
(c) Find the regression equation of sales on test scores.
Ans: ^x = 7.8 + 1.61y
(d) Predict the value of sale if the test score is 30
Ans: 56.1 lakh
(e) Compute the value of correlation coefficient with the help of regression
coefficients.

Assignment Problem-2: The following table gives the ages and blood pressure of 10
women:

Age in years 56 42 36 47 49 42 72 63 55 60
x
Blood pressure 147 12 118 128 125 140 155 160 149 150
y 5
(i) Obtain the regression line of y on x. Ans: ^y = 83.76+ 1.11x
(ii) Estimate the blood pressure of a women whose age is 50 years. Ans: 139.26
(iii) Obtain the regression line of x on y.
(iv) Find correlation coefficient between x and y and comment.

Assignment Problem-3: Consider the following data set on two variables x and y:

x:1 2 3 4 5 6

y:6 4 3 5 4 2

(a) Find the equation of the regression line y on x. Ans: ^y = 5.799-0.541x

(b) Graph the line on a scatter diagram.
(c) Estimate the value of y when x = 4.5 Ans: ^y = 3.486
(d) Predict the value of y when x = 8. Ans: ^y =1.687

Assignment Problem-4: Cost accountants often estimate overhead based on production.

At the standard knitting company, they have collected information on overhead expenses
and units produced at different plants and what to estimate a regression equation to
predict future overhead.

Units 56 40 48 30 41 42 55 35
 Overhead 282 173 233 116 191 171 274 152
(i)Draw a scatter diagram and comment

(ii)Fit a regression equation.

(iii)Estimate overhead when 65 units are produced.

Assignment Problem-5: The following data refer to information about annual sales

( Tk.’000) and year of experience of a super store of 8 salesmen:

Salesmen 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Annual sales (Tk.’000) 90 75 78 86 95 110 130 145

Year of experience 7 4 5 6 11 12 13 17
(i)Fit two regression lines.

(ii)Estimate sales for year of experience is 10

(iii)Estimate year of experience for sales 100000

Assignment Problem (1-5): Same as solution-1

“THE END”