LVMH
LVMH
LVMH
Before you startThe spreadsheet has circular reasoning. This is not a problem. Go into calculation options (in excel) and check
the iteration box.
What the modelThis model is designed to value firms with operating income that is either positive or can be normalized to be
positive. It allows for up to 15 years of high growth, and can be used either as a 2-stage or a 3-stage model.
Inputs The inputs are in the following pages:
1. The bulk of the inputs are in the master inputs page. Here, you can input the numbers from the current
financial statements, and review and change the inputs for the valuation.
2. If you want to normalized operating income, use the earnings normalizer worksheet.
3. If you have R&D or operating leases, you will need to input the required numbers in those worksheets.
Important: Be consistent about the units you use. If you use millions, use millions for all of your inputs.
Options The spreadsheet can be used to value a company, with fixed inputs for a high growth phase and different inputs
for a stable growth phase (2-stage model) or it can be adjusted to allow for a transition phase (3-stage model).
To switch from one to the other, enter yes in the master input page to the question of whether you want the
inputs adjusted during the second half of the high growth phase.
You can even make it a stable growth model, by setting the length of the high growth period to zero.
Other worksheetThere are two other worksheets that you might find useful at the end of this spreadsheet
1. Bottom-up beta estimator: will estimate your levered beta, given an unlevered beta (which you will have to
input.
2. Industry averages: Here, you can look up industry averages for variables such as beta, return on capital,
reinvestment rates and working capital.
Output The output is contained in the valuation model worksheet.
excel) and check
ormalized to be
d different inputs
3-stage model).
Ratings
Do you want to estimate the firm's synthetic rating = Yes ! If yes, use the rating estimator worksheet that is attached
If yes, choose the type of firm 2
If not, what is the current rating of the firm? BBB
Enter the cost of debt associated with the rating = 5.75%
Options
Do you have equity options (management options, warrants) o Yes Share subscription options outstanding = 0?
If yes, enter the number of options 51.00
Average strike price $40.35
Average maturity 8.3
Standard Deviation in stock price 25%
Do you want to use the stock price to value the option or yourCurrent Price
Valuation Inputs
High Growth Period The questions below, especially the yes or no ones, can be confusing. Please r
Length of high growth period = 10
Beta to use for high growth period for your firm= 1.14 You can use the cost of capital spreadsheet to compute this num
Do you want to keep the debt ratio computed from your inputs Yes
If yes, the debt ratio that will be used to compute the cost of ca 1.28%
If no, enter the debt ratio that you would like to use in the hi 7.00%
Do you want to keep the existing ratio of working capital to r Yes
If yes, the working capital as a percent of revenues will be 0.90%
If no, enter the ratio of working capital to revenues to use in a 12%
Do you want to compute your growth rate from fundamentals? Yes
If no, enter the expected growth rate in operating income for 15%
If yes, the inputs to the fundamental growth calculation (based upon your inputs) are
Return on Capital = 22.00%
Reinvestment Rate = 8.35%
Do you want to change these inputs? No
Return on Capital = 33.00%
Reinvestment Rate = 8.35%
s outstanding = 0?
or no ones, can be confusing. Please read the comments on the input cells.
Input Summary
Input Diagnostics
Cost of Debt = 4.67% 9.00% This is a high cost of debt for stable growth. Consider moving this down.
Marginal tax rate (for cost o 34.00% 34.00% If this is a US company, this tax rate is below the marginal tax rate. Move towards a marginal tax rate
Return on Capital = 22.00% 25.00% Your return on capital exceeds your cost of capital by more than 5%. That is unusually high. Does your company hav
Page 7
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Equity/(Debt+Equity ) = 98.72%
Intermediate Output
The FCFF for the high growth phase are shown below (upto 10 years)
Current 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Expected Growth Rate 1.84% 1.84% 1.84% 1.84% 1.84% 2.07% 2.30% 2.53% 2.77% 3.00%
Cumulated Growth 101.84% 103.71% 105.61% 107.55% 109.53% 111.79% 114.37% 117.26% 120.51% 124.12%
Reinvestment Rate 8.35% 8.35% 8.35% 8.35% 8.35% 9.08% 9.81% 10.54% 11.27% 12.00%
EBIT $11,758 $11,974 $12,194 $12,418 $12,646 $12,878 $13,144 $13,447 $13,788 $14,169 $14,594
Tax rate (for ca 31.65% 31.89% 32.12% 32.36% 32.59% 32.83% 33.06% 33.30% 33.53% 33.77% 34.00%
EBIT * (1 - tax r $8,036 $8,155 $8,277 $8,399 $8,524 $8,650 $8,799 $8,970 $9,165 $9,385 $9,632
- (CapEx-Depre $609 $672 $682 $692 $702 $712 $788 $867 $952 $1,042 $1,138
Free Cashflow t $7,365 $7,475 $7,586 $7,698 $7,813 $7,928 $8,000 $8,090 $8,199 $8,327 $8,476
Cost of Capital 11.84% 11.84% 11.84% 11.84% 11.84% 11.29% 10.75% 10.21% 9.67% 9.13%
Cumulated Cost of Capital 1.1184 1.2507 1.3988 1.5643 1.7495 1.9471 2.1564 2.3767 2.6066 2.8446
Present Value $6,684 $6,065 $5,504 $4,994 $4,532 $4,109 $3,751 $3,450 $3,195 $2,980
Page 8
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Valuation
Page 9
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
B54
B74
B77
B75
B78
B79
B82
B81-83
Page 10
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Terminal Year
34.00%
$9,921.21
$1,173.14
$17.41
$8,730.66
Page 11
Normalizing Earnings
Approach used to normalize earnings = 3
If historical average,
Average Earnings before interest and ta 3500 AVG EBIT
If sector margin
Pre-tax Operating Margin for Sector = 14.72% ! Look at industry average
OP. MG
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $1,771.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 1678.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 1529.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 1367.00
-4 1267.00
-5 1205.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 1771.00 1.00 1771.00
-1 1678.00 0.80 1342.40 $335.60
-2 1529.00 0.60 917.40 $305.80
-3 1367.00 0.40 546.80 $273.40
-4 1267.00 0.20 253.40 $253.40
-5 1205.00 0.00 0.00 $241.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
Value of Research Asset = $4,831.00 $1,409.20
Amortization of asset for current year = $1,409.20
Adjustment to Operating Income = $361.80 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $123
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 4.67% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the ratings estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 estim 1 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year CommitmentPresent Value
1 $ 453.00 $432.77
2 $ 371.00 $338.60
3 $ 265.00 $231.06
4 $ 180.00 $149.93
5 $ 122.00 $97.08
6 and beyond $ 259.00 $196.90 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $ 1,446.35
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $241.06 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $262.94 ! Operating lease expense - Depreciation
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $ 1,446.35
- Depreciation
Company Name: LVMH
The Story
d1 = 3.87959911
N (d1) = 0.99994769
d2 = 3.1593561
N (d2) = 0.99920941
Equity
Number of Shares outstanding = 503.63 The last two rows in each of
country/regiion risk premium tables is
Current Market Price per share = $400.00 set aside for your input to provide you
with flexibility to enter some numbers
directly. For instance, assume that you
Unlevered beta = 0.92
have a company that breaks its
Riskfree Rate = 3.00% revenues down into three countries and
Equity Risk Premium = 7.69% then puts the rest into "Rest of the
World". You can enter the "Rest of the
World" in one of these two rows and
Debt enter an equity risk premium for the
Book Value of Straight Debt = $2,609.00 rest of the world. The easiest way to do
that is to go into the country equity risk
Interest Expense on Debt = $559.00 premium worksheet and change the
Average Maturity = 5 GDP for the three countries that you
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 3.65% have data for to zero and compute the
global weighted average ERP for the
Tax Rate = 34% remaining countries. With the regional
worksheet, you can use the last two
Book Value of Convertible Debt = 0 rows to enter the data for an individual
country (usually the domestic country)
Interest Expense on Convertible = 0 that might be broken out though the
Maturity of Convertible Bond = 0 rest of the revenues are broken down
Market Value of Convertible = 0 by region. You can look up the ERP
for the country in the country ERP
worksheet.
Debt value of operating leases = $ -
OJO ERP COVID
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = $4,694.09
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $0.00
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $0.00
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $0.00
Levered Beta for equity = 0.93
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 28.34%
0.2 0.649999 Caa/CCC 21.26%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 16.20%
0.8 1.249999 C2/C 15.37%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 9.65%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 7.90%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 6.58%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 4.50%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 3.75%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 3.13%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 2.44%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 2.16%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.96%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 1.57%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 1.26%