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Forecasting: Previziune

This document describes an exponential smoothing forecasting model. The model was used to forecast monthly demand over a 12 month period. It calculates forecast errors, accuracy metrics like mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE), and generates forecasts for the next period. The model applies an alpha of 0.89999998 to smooth historical demand data and generate the forecasts.

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Adriana C
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
75 views8 pages

Forecasting: Previziune

This document describes an exponential smoothing forecasting model. The model was used to forecast monthly demand over a 12 month period. It calculates forecast errors, accuracy metrics like mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE), and generates forecasts for the next period. The model applies an alpha of 0.89999998 to smooth historical demand data and generate the forecasts.

Uploaded by

Adriana C
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.72000003 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 2020 -272 272 73984 0.155606
Time
April 1848 1824.16 23.84001 23.84001 568.3459 0.0129
May 1648 1841.325 -193.3248 193.3248 37374.48 0.117309
June 1898 1702.131 195.8691 195.8691 38364.69 0.103198
July 1998 1843.157 154.8433 154.8433 23976.46 0.077499
August 1698 1954.644 -256.6439 256.6439 65866.08 0.151145
September 1748 1769.86 -21.86028 21.86028 477.8717 0.012506
October 1648 1754.121 -106.1209 106.1209 11261.64 0.064394
November 1858 1677.714 180.2862 180.2862 32503.1 0.097032
December 1798 1807.52 -9.519881 9.519881 90.62814 0.005295
Total -204.6311 1514.308 294467.3 0.845712
Average -18.60283 137.6644 26769.75 0.076883
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 180.8828
Next period 1800.66557
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.89999998 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 2038 -290 290 84100 0.165904
Time
April 1848 1777 70.99999 70.99999 5040.999 0.03842
May 1648 1840.9 -192.9 192.9 37210.41 0.117051
June 1898 1667.29 230.71 230.71 53227.1 0.121554
July 1998 1874.929 123.071 123.071 15146.47 0.061597
August 1698 1985.693 -287.6929 287.6929 82767.2 0.16943
September 1748 1726.769 21.2307 21.2307 450.7428 0.012146
October 1648 1745.877 -97.87693 97.87693 9579.893 0.059391
November 1858 1657.788 200.2123 200.2123 40084.97 0.107757
December 1798 1837.979 -39.97876 39.97876 1598.302 0.022235
Total -162.2246 1654.673 339206.1 0.924314
Average -14.74769 150.4248 30836.92 0.084029
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 194.138
Next period 1801.99788
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.89999998 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 2038 -290 290 84100 0.165904
Time
April 1848 1777 70.99999 70.99999 5040.999 0.03842
May 1648 1840.9 -192.9 192.9 37210.41 0.117051
June 1898 1667.29 230.71 230.71 53227.1 0.121554
July 1998 1874.929 123.071 123.071 15146.47 0.061597
August 1698 1985.693 -287.6929 287.6929 82767.2 0.16943
September 1748 1726.769 21.2307 21.2307 450.7428 0.012146
October 1648 1745.877 -97.87693 97.87693 9579.893 0.059391
November 1858 1657.788 200.2123 200.2123 40084.97 0.107757
December 1798 1837.979 -39.97876 39.97876 1598.302 0.022235
Total -162.2246 1654.673 339206.1 0.924314
Average -14.74769 150.4248 30836.92 0.084029
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 194.138
Next period 1801.99788
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.89999998 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 2038 -290 290 84100 0.165904
Time
April 1848 1777 70.99999 70.99999 5040.999 0.03842
May 1648 1840.9 -192.9 192.9 37210.41 0.117051
June 1898 1667.29 230.71 230.71 53227.1 0.121554
July 1998 1874.929 123.071 123.071 15146.47 0.061597
August 1698 1985.693 -287.6929 287.6929 82767.2 0.16943
September 1748 1726.769 21.2307 21.2307 450.7428 0.012146
October 1648 1745.877 -97.87693 97.87693 9579.893 0.059391
November 1858 1657.788 200.2123 200.2123 40084.97 0.107757
December 1798 1837.979 -39.97876 39.97876 1598.302 0.022235
Total -162.2246 1654.673 339206.1 0.924314
Average -14.74769 150.4248 30836.92 0.084029
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 194.138
Next period 1801.99788
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.2 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 1968 -220 220 48400 0.125858
Time
April 1848 1924 -76 76 5776 0.041126
May 1648 1908.8 -260.8 260.8 68016.64 0.158252
June 1898 1856.64 41.36 41.36 1710.65 0.021791
July 1998 1864.912 133.088 133.088 17712.42 0.066611
August 1698 1891.53 -193.5296 193.5296 37453.71 0.113975
September 1748 1852.824 -104.8237 104.8237 10988 0.059968
October 1648 1831.859 -183.8589 183.8589 33804.11 0.111565
November 1858 1795.087 62.91285 62.91285 3958.026 0.033861
December 1798 1807.67 -9.669723 9.669723 93.50355 0.005378
Total -711.3211 1386.043 237913.1 0.787212
Average -64.66555 126.0039 21628.46 0.071565
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 162.5878
Next period 1805.73578
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.2 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 1968 -220 220 48400 0.125858
Time
April 1848 1924 -76 76 5776 0.041126
May 1648 1908.8 -260.8 260.8 68016.64 0.158252
June 1898 1856.64 41.36 41.36 1710.65 0.021791
July 1998 1864.912 133.088 133.088 17712.42 0.066611
August 1698 1891.53 -193.5296 193.5296 37453.71 0.113975
September 1748 1852.824 -104.8237 104.8237 10988 0.059968
October 1648 1831.859 -183.8589 183.8589 33804.11 0.111565
November 1858 1795.087 62.91285 62.91285 3958.026 0.033861
December 1798 1807.67 -9.669723 9.669723 93.50355 0.005378
Total -711.3211 1386.043 237913.1 0.787212
Average -64.66555 126.0039 21628.46 0.071565
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 162.5878
Next period 1805.73578
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.2 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 1968 -220 220 48400 0.125858
Time
April 1848 1924 -76 76 5776 0.041126
May 1648 1908.8 -260.8 260.8 68016.64 0.158252
June 1898 1856.64 41.36 41.36 1710.65 0.021791
July 1998 1864.912 133.088 133.088 17712.42 0.066611
August 1698 1891.53 -193.5296 193.5296 37453.71 0.113975
September 1748 1852.824 -104.8237 104.8237 10988 0.059968
October 1648 1831.859 -183.8589 183.8589 33804.11 0.111565
November 1858 1795.087 62.91285 62.91285 3958.026 0.033861
December 1798 1807.67 -9.669723 9.669723 93.50355 0.005378
Total -711.3211 1386.043 237913.1 0.787212
Average -64.66555 126.0039 21628.46 0.071565
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 162.5878
Next period 1805.73578
previziune

Forecasting Exponential smoothing


This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM for Forecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
2500
2000
Alpha 0.2 1500
Data Error Analysis Demand

Value
1000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error 500
Absolute Squared |% Error|
January 1948 1948 0
February 2048 1948 100 1 3 510000
100 7 9 0.048828
11
March 1748 1968 -220 220 48400 0.125858
Time
April 1848 1924 -76 76 5776 0.041126
May 1648 1908.8 -260.8 260.8 68016.64 0.158252
June 1898 1856.64 41.36 41.36 1710.65 0.021791
July 1998 1864.912 133.088 133.088 17712.42 0.066611
August 1698 1891.53 -193.5296 193.5296 37453.71 0.113975
September 1748 1852.824 -104.8237 104.8237 10988 0.059968
October 1648 1831.859 -183.8589 183.8589 33804.11 0.111565
November 1858 1795.087 62.91285 62.91285 3958.026 0.033861
December 1798 1807.67 -9.669723 9.669723 93.50355 0.005378
Total -711.3211 1386.043 237913.1 0.787212
Average -64.66555 126.0039 21628.46 0.071565
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 162.5878
Next period 1805.73578

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