Business Valuation: Modeling
Business Valuation: Modeling
Business Valuation: Modeling
Selling a Impairment
Raising Money IPO Estate Planning Bankruptcy
Business Testing
Valuation is based on expected future performance not past performance and involves:
Science Art
Valuing a Business
or Asset
Discounted Cash
Market Approach
Cost Approach Flow (Intrinsic
(Relative Value)
Value)
Public Company
Cost to Build
Comparables
Forecast Future
Cash Flows
Precedent
Replacement Cost
Transactions
Valuation Summary
Valuation Summary–- Equity Value
Equity Value Per Share
per Share ($) ($)
55.00
$49.21
50.00
$44.00
45.00
40.00 $38.08
$36.00
35.00
$36.00 $30.00
30.00
25.00 $28.00
$24.81
20.00 $22.40 $22.00
15.00
10.00
Comps Precedents DCF - base case DCF - blue sky 52 wk hi/lo
Market Value
Debt Investors
of Net Debt
1 2 3
Debt
$100k Debt
Debt $250k
$400k
House House House
Equity
$400k Equity
Equity $250k
$100k
Question: Answer:
In each case what is the house worth? $500,000. The funding mix for the house is
independent of the value of the house - this is
what enterprise value reflects for companies.
03. EV
• It’s assumed the cash can be netted against any debt owed.
EBITDA 650
Depreciation (400) Non-cash
Assets EBIT 250
Market Value of Interest (100) Debt Holders
Equity Earnings Before Tax 150
Tax (50) Government
Net Earnings 100 Shareholders
No. of Shares 100 Million
Share Price 20.00
• EV/Revenue • P/E
• EV/EBITDA • P/B
• EV/EBIT • P/CF
Question:
What is the enterprise value of XYZ Inc.?
Answer:
100MM Shares x $20.00 Per Share = $2,000MM
Question:
+ $300MM in Net Debt = $2,300MM
What are the implied multiples?
• EV/Sales
• EV/EBITDA
• EV/EBIT
• EV/Capital Employed
EV EV EBIT or EBITDA
Sales EBIT or EBITDA Sales
$2,300MM
65% 2.3x
$650MM
• They are used more often than other EV multiples such as EV/Sales or EV/Free Cash Flow.
EV EV EBIT or EBITDA
CE EBIT or EBITDA CE
117
Question:
What is the market capitalization of XYZ Inc.?
Answer:
100MM Shares x $20.00 Per Share = $2,000MM
Question:
What are the implied multiples?
• Price to earnings
• Price to book
Normalized earnings multiples should reflect the on-going performance of the company.
Problems With
Price to Earnings
The book value of equity is the total common shareholders’ equity excluding preference shares and
minority interest.
P/E Drivers:
• Growth prospects
• Shareholder risk
Free cash flows are used to determine how much cash a company has left after satisfying its sustainable
obligations.
FCFE Cash Flows From Operations – Capital Expenditures + Net Debt Issued
Net Debt
New Debt Issued – Debt Repayments
Issued
EBIT 250
Depreciation 400
EBITDA 650
Working Capital (150) • Accounts Receivable
Operating Cash Flow 500 • Inventory
• Accounts Payable
Interest (100)
Taxes (50)
Cash Flow Pre-investment 350
P/FCFE Drivers:
• Growth prospects
• Shareholder risk
Sales
Cash Flow
Profit
Inception
Valuing a Business
or Asset
Discounted Cash
Market Approach
Cost Approach Flow (Intrinsic
(Relative Value)
Value)
Public Company
Cost to Build
Comparables
Forecast Future
Cash Flows
Precedent
Replacement Cost
Transactions
Pros Cons
General Examples:
Price Shares Market Cap Net Debt EV Sales EBITDA Earnings EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E
Company name ($/Share) (MM) ($MM) ($M) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) X X X
Micro Partners $9.45 100 $945 $125 $1,070 $268 $76 $47 4.0x 14.1x 20.1x
Junior Enterprises $5.68 1,250 $7,100 $2,00 $9,100 $4,136 $778 $412 2.2x 11.7x 17.2x
Minature Company $18.11 50 $906 $25 $931 $443 $96 $56 2.1x 9.7x 16.3x
Average Limited $12.27 630 $7,730 $350 $8,080 $1,949 $528 $294 4.1x 15.3x 26.3x
Bohemeth
$9.03 1,500 $13,545 $0 $13,545 $6,622 $795 $423 2.0x 17.0x 32.0x
Industries
Average 2.9x 13.6x 22.4x
Multiples valuation requires an in-depth understanding of the company being valued and its peers.
The relative valuation is only useful if the companies are a comparable peer group. We need to consider
companies that have similar:
Valuing a Business
or Asset
Discounted Cash
Market Approach
Cost Approach Flow (Intrinsic
(Relative Value)
Value)
Public Company
Cost to Build
Comparables
Forecast Future
Cash Flows
Precedent
Replacement Cost
Transactions
Pros Cons
1. Show the value investors paid for the 1. Hard to find (few transactions)
entire company (not just one share)
2. Need access to a database like
2. Include takeover premium / control Bloomberg and Capital IQ
premium
3. Become stale dated quickly (valuations
3. Include synergy value from years ago are not relevant today)
General Examples:
Valuation
Transaction Value
Date Target Buyers EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT
($MM)
01/24/2017 Current Ltd 2,350 Average Limited 1.9x 9.4x 11.2x
Valuing a Business
or Asset
Discounted Cash
Market Approach
Cost Approach Flow (Intrinsic
(Relative Value)
Value)
Public Company
Cost to Build
Comparables
Forecast Future
Cash Flows
Precedent
Replacement Cost
Transactions
• Industry conferences, investor calls (e.g. • 2 to 3 rating agency reports • Pay particular attention to the Q&A by
quarterly conference calls) analysts
04. 05.
A detailed and quantified An assessment of industry
assessment of a company’s dynamics as well as general
competitive advantages/ economic and demographic
disadvantages trends
Assessing future sustainable cash flows requires an analysis of the company, industry, and external
environment.
Company
Industry
External
Environment
Political Social
Forecasting Forecasting
Identify
Anticipate Opportunities React
and Threats
Economic Technological
Forecasting Forecasting
Porter’s 5 forces is a powerful tool for assessing industry attractiveness. Michael Porter identified five
forces driving industry competition:
Potential New
Entrants and
Barriers to Entry
Suppliers and
Rivalry Amongst Buyers and Their
Their Bargaining
Firms in Industry Bargaining Power
Power
Threat of
Substitutes
Michael Porter identified the following strategies for gaining competitive advantage in an industry.
Broad Target
1. 2.
Cost Leadership Differentiation
Competitive Scope
Narrow Target
3a. 3b.
Cost Focus Differentiation
Focus
Lifecycle
Extension
Sales
Cash
Profit
Time (Years)
Question:
When assessing a management team’s character, which particular aspects / traits should you consider?
04. 05.
Experience/Stability Attitude Towards Risk
Strengths Weaknesses
Internal factors which already exist and have contributed to the current position and may
continue to exist.
Opportunities Threats
External factors which are contingent events. Assess their importance based on the
likelihood of them happening and their impact on the company. Also consider whether
management have the intention and ability to take advantage of the opportunity/avoid
the threat.
From your analysis to date, determine the key assumptions that will drive your valuation. In particular, you
must determine what will drive the following:
1 2
The two-stage approach to DCF valuations is a common solution to the problem of how we forecast the
cash flow of a company because of issues of uncertainty:
We do not know how long the company will Forecasting is estimation. The further we
exist and hence how many years to include predict into the future, the more prone to
in our cash flow forecast. error our estimates become.
Free cash flows to the firm are the cash flows EBIT
available to all funding providers such as:
• Debt holders
(1 – Tax Rate)
• Preferred stockholders
Capital Expenditure
Forecast Drivers:
Revenue
• Market Size
• Sales Mix
• Volume/Price
Operating EBIT x (1 – T)
• Materials Price Margin (NOPAT)
• Staffing Levels
• Wage Rates
Taxes
• Tax Effective Structures Free
Cash Flow
• A/R, Inventory, A/P
Working
• Terms Capital
• Plant Life Total Capital
• Maintenance Capital
• Scale Expenditures
The discount rate used in DCF valuations is based on the cost of capital.
There are two main sources of capital funding – debt funding and equity funding.
Assets
Equity Risk
Premium
Cost of
Beta Cost of Equity
Equity
Weighted
Average Weighted
Cost of Risk Free Rate
Average Cost of
Capital Capital
Average Yield
on Debt
Cost of Cost of Debt
Debt (After-tax)
Tax Shield
Question:
Beta Alpha
01. Market Risk 01. Firm-specific Risk
Return %
Risk premium
between 3% and 9%
Beta can be understood as the slope (gradient) of the line of best fit.
+
Beta = Slope of the Line
x x
x x x
x x
x x
x Market (% Change)
– x +
x x x
x
x x
–
Share (% Change)
Equity Debt
WACC Ke Kd
Debt + Equity Debt + Equity
Where:
You have been provided with the following information for Internet Co:
14.52%
Question:
What is the WACC of Brick and Mortar Co?
40 10
15.0% + 10.0% (1 – 30.0%)
40 + 10 40 + 10
12.0% + 1.4%
13.4%
Valuing a Business
or Asset
Discounted Cash
Market Approach
Cost Approach Flow (Intrinsic
(Relative Value)
Value)
Public Company
Cost to Build
Comparables
Forecast Future
Cash Flows
Precedent
Replacement Cost
Transactions
Valuation Summary
Valuation Summary–- Equity Value
Equity Value Per Share
per Share ($) ($)
55.00
$49.21
50.00
$44.00
45.00
40.00 $38.08
$36.00
35.00
$36.00 $30.00
30.00
25.00 $28.00
$24.81
20.00 $22.40 $22.00
15.00
10.00
Comps Precedents DCF - base case DCF - blue sky 52 wk hi/lo