Probability Distributions

Expected Value of a discrete random variable: 𝐸(𝑥) = 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑥 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥)

Variance of a discrete random variable: 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥) = 𝜎 2 = ∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥)

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION. If 𝑋 is a random variable, the function given by 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) for
each 𝑥 within the range of 𝑋 is called the probability distribution of 𝑋.

THEOREM 1. A function can serve as the probability distribution of a discrete random variable 𝑋 if and only
if its values, 𝑓(𝑥), satisfy the conditions:

(i) 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 for each value within its domain.

(ii) ∑𝑥 𝑓(𝑥) = 1, where the summation extends over all the values within its domain.

DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION. If 𝑋 is a discrete random variable, the function given by:

𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∑ 𝑓(𝑡) 𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞

𝑡≤𝑥

where 𝑓(𝑡) is the value of the probability distribution of 𝑋 at 𝑡, is called the distribution function, or the
cumulative distribution of 𝑋.

THEOREM 2. The values 𝐹(𝑥) of the distribution function of a discrete random variable 𝑋 satisfy the
conditions:

(i) 𝐹(−∞) = 0 and 𝐹(∞) = 1.

(ii) If 𝑎 < 𝑏, then 𝐹(𝑎) ≤ 𝐹(𝑏) for any real numbers 𝑎 and 𝑏.

PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION. A function with values 𝑓(𝑥), defined over the set of all real
numbers, is called a probability density function of the continuous random variable 𝑋 if and only if:

𝑏
𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
𝑎

for any real constants 𝑎 and 𝑏 with 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏.

THEOREM 3. If 𝑋 is a continuous random variable and 𝑎 and 𝑏 are real constants with 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏, then

𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 < 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 < 𝑏)

THEOREM 4. A function can serve as a probability density of a continuous random variable 𝑋 if its values,
𝑓(𝑥), satisfy the conditions:

(i) 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞.

∞
(ii) ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1.
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION. If 𝑋 is a continuous random variable and the value of its probability density
at 𝑡 is 𝑓(𝑡), then the function given by
𝑥

𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑡)𝑑𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞

−∞

is called the distribution function or the cumulative distribution function of 𝑋.

THEOREM 5. If 𝑓(𝑥) and 𝐹(𝑥) are the values of the probability density and the distribution function of 𝑋 at
𝑑𝐹(𝑥)
𝑥, then 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝐹(𝑏) − 𝐹(𝑎) for any real constants 𝑎 and 𝑏 with 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏, and 𝑓(𝑥) = where the
𝑑𝑥

derivative exists.

PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION FOR BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION.

𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)(𝑛−𝑥)
𝑥

where, 𝑥 = no. of successes; 𝑝 = probability of success on one trial; 𝑛 = number of trials; 𝐸(𝑥) = 𝑛𝑝;
𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑥) = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝).

PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION FOR POISSON DISTRIBUTION.

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
𝑥!

where, 𝜇 = expected value or mean number of occurrences in an interval.

NORMAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION.

1 −(𝑥−𝜇)2
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 𝑒 2𝜎2
𝜎√2𝜋

where, 𝜇 = mean; 𝜎 = standard deviation

AREA UNDER STANDARD NORMAL CURVE.

 Worksheet on Statistics – Probability Distributions
1. The Bay Street Inn is a seven-room bed-and-breakfast in the sunny California coastal city of Santa Theresa.
Demand for rooms generally is strong during February, a prime month for tourists. However, experience
shows that demand is quite variable. The probability distribution of room rentals during February is shown
as:
No. of Rooms 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Probability 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.10 0.13 0.20 0.15 0.26
Calculate the expected number of rooms and the variance in the number of rooms demanded.
2. On the midnight shift, the number of patients with head trauma in an emergency room has the probability
distribution shown below. Calculate the mean and standard deviation.
No. of Patients 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.05 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.05

3. Student Life Insurance Company wants to offer an insurance plan with a maximum claim amount of
$5,000 for dorm students to cover theft of certain items. Past experience suggests that the probability of a
maximum claim is .01. What premium should be charged if the company wants to make a profit of $25
per policy? Assume any student who files a claim files for the maximum amount and there is no deductible.

4. A lottery ticket has a grand prize of $28 million. The probability of winning the grand prize is .000000023.
Based on the expected value of the lottery ticket, would you pay $1 for a ticket?

𝑥+2
5. Check whether the function given by 𝑓(𝑥) = for 𝑥 = 1,2 3, 4, 5 can serve as the probability
25
distribution of a discrete random variable.

6. Find the cumulative distribution function of the total number of heads obtained in four tosses of a balanced
coin.

7. If the distribution function of X is given by

Range 𝑥 < 2 2 3≤𝑥 4≤𝑥 5≤𝑥 6≤𝑥 7≤𝑥 8≤𝑥 9≤𝑥 10 11 𝑥
≤𝑥 <4 <5 <6 <7 <8 <9 < 10 ≤𝑥 ≤𝑥 ≥ 12
<3 < 11 < 12
𝐹(𝑥) 0 1/36 3/36 6/36 10/36 15/36 21/36 26/36 30/36 33/36 35/36 1
Find the probability distribution of this random variable.
8. If X has the probability density
−3𝑥
𝑓(𝑥) = {𝑘𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 > 0
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Find k and 𝑃(0.5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 1).

9. Find the cumulative distribution function in the above case and use it to revaluate 𝑃(0.5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 1).

10. Find the mean and standard deviation for each binomial random variable:
(a) n = 8, π = 0.10
(b) n = 10, π = 0.40
(c) n = 12, π = 0.50

11. Calculate each binomial probability:

(a) More than 10 successes in 16 trials with an 80 percent chance of success.
(b) At least 4 successes in 8 trials with a 40 percent chance of success.
 (c) No more than 2 successes in 6 trials with a 20 percent chance of success.

12. Find the mean and standard deviation for each Poisson:
(a) λ = 9.0
(b) λ = 12.0
(c) λ = 7.0

13. Calculate each Poisson probability:

(a) P(X = 6), λ = 4.0
(b) P(X = 10), λ = 12.0
(c) P(X = 4), λ = 7.0

14. A Harris Interactive survey for InterContinental Hotels & Resorts asked respondents, “When traveling
internationally, do you generally venture out on your own to experience culture, or stick with your tour
group and itineraries?” The survey found that 23% of the respondents stick with their tour group (USA
Today, January 21, 2004).
(a) In a sample of six international travellers, what is the probability that two will stick with their tour
group?
(b) In a sample of six international travellers, what is the probability that at least two will stick with their
tour group?
(c) In a sample of 10 international travellers, what is the probability that none will stick with the tour
group?

15. The Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey shows 28% of individuals, ages 25 and older, have
completed four years of college (The New York Times Almanac, 2006). For a sample of 15 individuals,
ages 25 and older, answer the following questions:
(a) What is the probability four will have completed four years of college?
(b) What is the probability three or more will have completed four years of college?

16. According to J.D. Power and Associates’ 2006 Initial Quality Study, consumers reported on average 1.7
problems per vehicle with new 2006 Volkswagens. In a randomly selected new Volkswagen, find the
probability of (a) at least one problem; (b) no problems; (c) more than three problems.

17. The average number of items (such as a drink or dessert) ordered by a Noodles & Company customer in
addition to the meal is 1.4. These items are called add-ons. Define X to be the number of add-ons ordered
by a randomly selected customer. (a) Justify the use of the Poisson model. (b) What is the probability that
a randomly selected customer orders at least 2 add-ons? (c) No add-ons?

18. Find the standard normal area for each of the following,
(a) P(-1.22 < Z < 2.15)
(b) P(-3.00 < Z < 2.00)
(c) P(Z < 2.00)

19. Given that z is a standard normal random variable, find z for each situation.
(a) The area to the left of z is .9750.
(b) The area between 0 and z is .4750.
(c) The area to the left of z is .7291.
(d) The area to the right of z is .1314.
(e) The area to the left of z is .6700.
(f) The area to the right of z is .3300.
20. Find the associated z-score or scores that represent the following standard normal areas.
(a) Middle 60 percent
(b) Highest 2 percent
(c) Middle 95 percent

21. The average stock price for companies making up the S&P 500 is $30, and the standard deviation is $8.20
(BusinessWeek, Special Annual Issue, Spring 2003). Assume the stock prices are normally distributed.
(a) What is the probability a company will have a stock price of at least $40?
(b) What is the probability a company will have a stock price no higher than $20?
(c) How high does a stock price have to be to put a company in the top 10%?

22. Assume that the number of calories in a McDonald’s Egg McMuffin is a normally distributed random
variable with a mean of 290 calories and a standard deviation of 14 calories. (a) What is the probability
that a particular serving contains fewer than 300 calories? (b) More than 250 calories? (c) Between 275
and 310 calories?

23. On January 1, 2011, a new standard for baseball bat “liveliness” called BBCOR (Ball-Bat Coefficient of
Restitution) was adopted for teams playing under NCAA rules. A higher BBCOR allows the ball to travel
farther when hit, so bat manufacturers want a high BBCOR. The maximum allowable BBCOR is 0.500.
Big Bash Inc. produces bats whose BBCOR is N(0.480,0.008). What percentage of their bats will exceed
the BBCOR standard?

24. The mean hourly pay rate for financial managers in the East North Central region is $32.62, and the
standard deviation is $2.32 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2005). Assume that pay rates are
normally distributed.
(a) What is the probability a financial manager earns between $30 and $35 per hour?
(b) How high must the hourly rate be to put a financial manager in the top 10% with respect to pay?
(c) For a randomly selected financial manager, what is the probability the manager earned less than $28
per hour?

Solutions

1. E(X) = 4.71 Var(X) = 4.225900

2. E(X) = 2.25, Var(X) = 1.6875, σ = 1.299, right-skewed

3. E(X) = 5000(.01) + (0)(.999) = $50, add $25, charges $75.

4. E(X) = 28000000(0.000000023) + 0(0.999999977) = $0.644. No.

5. ∑ 𝑓(𝑥) = 1; Yes
6.

7. f(2) = 1/36; f(3)=2/36; f(3) = 3/36; f(12) =1/36

8. k = 3; 𝑃(0.5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 1) = 0.173

0 𝑥≤0
9. 𝐹(𝑥) = {
1 − 𝑒 −3𝑥 𝑥>0

10. (a) μ = 0.8, σ = 0.8485 (b) μ = 4, σ = 1.5492 (c) μ = 6, σ = 1.7321

11. (a) P(X > 10) = 0.9183 (b) P(X >= 4) = 0.4059 (c) P(X <= 2) = 0.9011.

12. (a) μ = 9.0, σ = 3.0 (b) μ = 12.0, σ = 3.464 (c) μ = 7, σ = 2.646

13. (a) P(X = 6) = 0.1042. (b) P(X = 10) = 0.1048. (c) P(X = 4) = 0.0912.

14. (a) 0.2789 (b) 0.4181 (c) 0.0733

15. (a) 0.2262 (b) 0.8355

16. (a) P(X >= 1) = 0.8173. (b) P(X = 0) = 0.1827. (c) P(X > 3) = 0.0932.

17. (a) Add-ons are ordered independently. (b) P(X >= 2) = 0.4082. (c) P(X = 0) = 0.2466.

18. (a) P(Z < 2.15) – P(Z < -1.22) = 0.9842 - 0.1112 = 0.8730
(b) P(Z < 2.00) – P(Z < -3.00) = 0.9772 – 0.00135 = 0.97585
(c) P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

19. (a) z = 1.96 (b) z = 1.96 (c) z = 0.61 (d) z = 1.12 (e) z = 0.44 (f) z = 0.44

20. (a) -0.84 < Z < 0.84 (the closest area is .2995).
(b) z = 2.05 (closest area is 0.9798).
(c) -1.96 < Z < 1.96.

21. (a) z=1.22 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ 1.22) = 0.8888. 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 40) =1-0.8888 = 0.1112
(b) z=-1.22 𝑃(𝑧 ≤ −1.22)=0.1112
(c) At z=1.28, 10% remains in upper tail; So, x=30+8.2*1.28 = 40.50

22. (a) P(X < 300) = P(Z < 0.7143) = 0.7625

(b) P(X > 250) = 1 - P(Z < - 2.86) = 0.9979
(c). P(275 < X < 310) = P(Z < 1.43) – P(Z < -1.07) = 0.9236 – 0.1423 = 0.7813

23. P(X > 0.5) = 0.0062 or 6.2%.

24. (a) 0.7193 (b) $35.59 (c) 0.0233