“Hazard & Disaster Management’’

Assignment No. 4

BATCH 2017
Section CV-B

Submitted by:

Muhammad Emaz Azam Roll #: 17L-4601

Salman Chaudhry Roll #: 17L-4674
Muhammad Usman Gill Roll #: 17L-4602
Rana Sarmad Shabir Roll #: 17L-4609

(May 27, 2021)

Submitted to: Engr. Nasir Tabarruk Butt

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes are the most devastating natural disaster with a high mortality rate and wide
spread destruction. These disasters always remain a threat to sustainable socio-economic
development around the world. Pakistan is located in one of the most seismically active
regions in the world with many devastating earthquakes in the past and active tectonic plate
shows that there are chances of more earthquakes in future. Earthquake induced ground
shaking plays a key role in excessive ground deformation and infrastructure damage.
Geographic Information System combined with remote sensing data provides the ability to
effectively analyze various risk factors over large and inaccessible areas to identify localities
which have the potential to be at higher risk from the impact of natural disasters. GIS and
remote sensing are beneficial for earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and
assist in forming risk reduction strategies. The government has realized the importance of
developing and implementing strategies for mitigation of earthquake induced risk after the
devastating 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The government has also established different
organizations for natural disaster management. Currently there is a need to invest in the
scientific research for earthquake hazard assessment as this will lessen the damages to life
and property across the country. A proper policy should be made and steps should be taken to
strictly enforce the seismic building codes of Pakistan.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We have put our efforts and knowledge in this research. Indeed, it would not have been
achievable without support and help from the university and many individuals. We would
like to say heartfelt thanks to all of them.
We would also like to express our gratitude towards our parents & and instructor Engr. Nasir
Butt for their kind co-operation and encouragement which helped us in completion of this
project.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

Table of Contents
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... 2

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ......................................................................................................... 3

LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... 5

1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 6

2 Earthquake Ground Shaking .............................................................................................. 7

3 Remote and GIS in Earthquake Hazard ............................................................................. 8

4 Seismicity in Pakistan ........................................................................................................ 9

5 Seismic Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................ 10

5.1 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) ................................................ 10

5.2 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) ................................................... 10

6 Administrative Setup for Disaster Risk ........................................................................... 11

7 Causes Earthquake Induced Damages in Pakistan........................................................... 12

8 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 13

9 References ........................................................................................................................ 14

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1 Seismic Zones in Pakistan ........................................................................................ 9

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

1 Introduction
Natural disasters are sudden and terrible event in nature such as an earthquake, tornado,
droughts and floods that usually results in serious damage and many deaths. Natural disasters
always remain a threat to sustainable socio-economic development around the world. The
increased vulnerability of global society is the main aspect to the concentration of population
in hazardous areas, poor urban planning and urbanization that resulted in increase in
economic loss.
The natural disasters like floods, cyclones and typhoons, can be predicted in advance,
providing ample time to the authorities to minimize the damage and to evacuate the high risk
areas, but earthquakes remain unpredictable with the current understanding and technology it
can strike suddenly, violently at any time round the year and cause huge devastation. The
earthquakes can cause a high mortality rate and a wide spread destruction.
Scientists cannot predict the exact time of earthquake occurrence but they can only calculate
the probability that a significant earthquake will occur in a specific area within a certain
number of years. Japan has the most recorded earthquakes in the world as it sits on a highly
active seismic area while the largest earthquake was the Valdivia Earthquake of intensity 9.5
was occurred in 1960. Earthquake hazard assessment and developing strategies for
earthquake risk reduction is one of the active and complicated research areas for scientific
community. Major achievements have been made in demarcating seismically active regions,
evaluating physical factors causing amplified earthquake ground shaking, formulating
earthquake mitigation and preparedness strategies, constructing shake absorbent buildings
and identifying factor increasing the earthquake vulnerability and risk. The achievements
have resulted in reducing earthquake vulnerability and risk. Earthquake is still a major threat
to the sustainable socio-economic development for both the developed and developing
countries.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

2 Earthquake Ground Shaking

Earthquakes are mainly the sudden slight movement of the ground that lead to the shaking of
ground. The main reason of this sudden movement is that the active tectonic plates get stuck
due to friction that results in the formation of the stresses along the edges. The Earthquake
causes seismic waves that causes ground shaking.
Measurable ground displacements occur that are produced by shallow earthquakes of
magnitude 5 or greater. This data of displacement is mainly used by the seismologists to
identify the source of Earthquake. This information has been traditionally used to analyses
earthquakes long after they occur, but recent work in Earthquake Early Warning may allow
such geodetic measurements to be exploited in real time in order to help provide warning of
earthquake shaking while the earthquake is in progress.
There is a huge effect on the infrastructure due to the ground shaking produced by
Earthquake. There is a high risk of property damages triggering secondary hazards such as
landslides, flooding, tsunami and ground deformation etc. The main factors of the the
Earthquake is the intensity and the duration period of the ground shaking. Its impact is
identified according to its amplitude, frequency and duration.
The ground shaking which have higher acceleration is considered to be more destructive as
compared to the ground shaking with low acceleration. Higher magnitude, close proximity to
the epicenter and shallow depth result in intensified ground shaking for longer duration.
Medium through which seismic waves propagate has significant influence on the velocity and
attenuation of seismic waves.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

3 Remote and GIS in Earthquake Hazard

Remote sensing is considered to be a very helpful tool that is used to gather temporal and
spatial information of anything on Earth from a particular distance. This data is mainly
available in multispectral images and digital elevation models with different forms of
resolutions.
The satellite imaging has made a huge progress in Earth observation and geological mapping.
It also provides with a very strong mechanism for the prediction and warning of Earthquakes.
The availability of new sensor material enables shares of remote sensing. Scanner, computer,
GPS are used as hardware while ERDAS imagine, ILWIS, ArcMap, MS Office etc. are used
as software. Disaster management is the collection of policies, administrative decisions and
operational activities, which is related to the various stages of a disaster.
The remote sensing images and DEM formed top topographic attributes can be used in all
stages of natural disaster management like for mitigation, readiness, reaction and retrieval.
The data from the satellite derived sensing because the data provide the synoptic view
required by the broad scale of integrated development planning studies. Aerial remote
sensing data are useful to natural hazard management for focusing on priority areas, verifying
small scale data interpretations and providing information about the future that are so precise
for the identification by the satellite imagery.
An international space agency has agreed on an International Charter “Space and Major
Disasters” to provide the post-disaster high resolution images from the optical remote sensing
for free. With the advancement of remote sensing technique and the improvement in spatial
and spectral resolution, there has been a quick response strategy that has been opted for the
mitigation of devastating impacts of earthquakes.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

4 Seismicity in Pakistan
Pakistan is located at a very active region of Seismicity. It has Hindu Kush ranges at the
northwest, Himalayan ranges at the north and Suleiman ranges at the southwest. The
Earthquakes in Pakistan are linked to the east west regional thrust faults. Earthquakes in
Pakistan occur due to the sudden slight movement of Indian tectonic plates. The western
boundary are the main cause of the seismicity around the city of Quetta. Active tectonic
plates leads to the formation of compressional forces that are discharged in high amplitude
Earthquakes in past and vulnerable to more in the future.
From north to south there are the Main karakoram thrust (MKT), Main Mantle thrust(MMT)
and Main Boundary Thrust(MBT). Some of the Earthquakes that happened in Pakistan are
listed below:

 Between 1897 and 1952, high seismicity occurred in this time period as there were 14
major Earthquakes of Mw >7.5 including 5 Earthquakes with Mw >8 .

 In 1905, Kangra Earthquake occured with Mw >7.8

 In 1945 Makran Earthquake occurred with Mw > 8.3

 In 1974, Pattan Earthquake occurred with Mw > 6.0

 In 2004, Batgram Earthquake occurred with Mw > 5.5

 In 2005, Kashmir Earthquake occurred with Mw > 7.6

Figure 4.1 Seismic Zones in Pakistan

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

5 Seismic Hazard Assessment

Seismic hazard means to study about the upcoming ground shaking at the earth’s surface and
it likely effects on existing natural conditions and man-made structures for the consideration
of public safety. It is to estimate the expected earthquakes at site and depends on data such as
seismological, geological, geophysical, topographical and geodetic information. The crucial
component of the seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the Peak Ground Acceleration
and response acceleration. Seismic hazard assessment is essential to overcome Earthquakes
that are expected in the near future.
There are mainly two methods that are frequently used for seismic hazard assessment for an
active area of Earthquakes:
 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA)
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

5.1 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA)

It uses geology and seismic history of the target area to detect the main sources of earthquake
and to interpret the strongest earthquake each source is capable of producing. Mainly four
basic steps are followed in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA):
 Detecting the source of possible earthquakes
 Identifying the maximum magnitude of Earthquake
 Selection of empirical relationship [ for ground motion prediction
 Calculation of the design ground motion parameters

5.2 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

It is the most widely used approach for seismic hazard assessment in regions with high
seismicity and limited data. The use of PSHA has allowed uncertainties in the size, location,
and rate of recurrence of earthquakes and in the variation of ground motion characteristics
with earthquake size and location to be explicitly considered for the evaluation of seismic
hazard. The principle of the analysis was first developed by Cornell and later refined by
various researchers. Each seismic source zone is split into elementary zones at a certain
distance from the site. Integration is carried out within each zone by summing the effects of
the various elementary source zones taking into account the attenuation effect with distance.
It also consists of four steps:
 First determine the Earthquake source
 Identifying the seismic activity due to seismic source

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

 Then the expected effect of the Earthquake is determined

 Then seismic hazard is determined at the site

6 Administrative Setup for Disaster Risk

Pakistan is already affected by many natural hazards in past and there is risk that the country
is prone to more in future. Natural hazard is causing serious threats to the sustainable socio-
economic development of the country. The 2005 earthquake and flood in 2010 affected
Pakistan very badly and the damage cost us a lot economically. Hence it is crucial to develop
and implement strategies to mitigate the disaster risk. The government has realized the
importance of natural disaster management and established organizations for the natural
disaster management in the country. At present, there is an active administrative setup at
national, provincial and district level for the natural disaster management. Earthquake
Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) was the first body established after the
2005 earthquake, with the main responsibility of rehabilitation and reconstruction works in
the earthquake affected areas. National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) was
established in 2006 for preparation against future disasters and for the implementation of
developing strategies aiming for the natural disaster management. National Disaster
Management Authority (NDMA) was also established for monitoring, coordinating and
implementing strategies for disaster management in the affected regions of Pakistan. NDMA
is responsible for providing technical knowledge leading towards capacity building by
cooperating with provincial and district governments at both national and provincial level to
the stakeholders to formulate future strategies for disaster risk management. NDMA is further
subdivided in Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) in each of the four
provinces of Pakistan. PDMA has further linked to each district by establishing District
Disaster Management Authority (DDMA). These disaster management authorities work
actively with joint efforts in case of any disaster emergency situation.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

7 Causes Earthquake Induced Damages in Pakistan

The earthquakes in Pakistan affected the life and economy to a huge extent and following
are the reasons of the damage?
1. Pakistan is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world. However,
management of the earthquakes and mitigating the devastating impacts did not get enough
attention from the Government and scientific research. The seismic vulnerability of the
reinforced concrete building stock of Pakistan was visible in the recent 2005 Kashmir
earthquake due to the lack of seismic design nature of structures and poor quality of
construction. After the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the government decided to develop
organizational setup for the management of natural hazards in Pakistan.
2. The Pakistan seismic code is never enforced in construction of building, except in major
cities. Majority of the buildings constructed in the seismically areas of the country do not
follow the seismic codes and hence are severally damaged or collapsed if a big earthquake
occurs and this can lead to human fatalities. Building codes for Pakistan should be revised
and should include capacity design principles, modern techniques for seismic analysis and
design. These codes should be strictly enforced in areas located close to the seismic sources
so that the damage due to earthquake can be minimized. The Government has taken many
steps to ensure safety of the residents after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and for this the
seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for the whole country. The development
authorities in major cities are responsible for the implementation of the building codes.
3. Lack of seismic micro zonation maps for the major cities located in the seismically active
regions halted to develop plan to mitigate the devastating impacts of earthquakes.
4. There is still a lack of preparation to prevent the devastation by future earthquakes in
Pakistan. The country was relying on foreign assistance during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake
that caused a late in rescue operation. Medical facilities were not enough to treat the
thousands of injured people and lead to more fatalities.
5. There is a serious lack of awareness among the public of prevailing seismic risk in
seismically active regions. The unplanned urbanization in the seismically areas result in
increased seismic risk.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

8 Conclusion
Natural disasters are always a matter of worry for Pakistan as we have witnessed devastating
earthquakes in past. The country is still at risk of disasters because of its location in one of
the most seismically active region. The government has realized the importance of
developing and implementing strategies for mitigation of earthquake induced risk after the
devastating 2005 Kashmir earthquake. A lot of work was done for earthquake risk reduction
at government level including establishing dedicated organizations for natural disaster
management, revising the seismic building codes of Pakistan, enforcing the implementation
of building codes. There is still a need to invest in the scientific research for earthquake
hazard assessment as this will lessen the damages to life and property across the country. A
proper policy should be made and steps should be taken to strictly enforce the seismic
building codes of Pakistan. The government organizations should prepare themselves for
effective seismic response and rehabilitation.

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 National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences
Department of Civil Engineering

9 References

[1] Atta-ur-Rehman, Amir Nawaz Khan, Rajib Shaw, Disaster risk reduction approaches in
Pakistan, Springer.
[2] Hina Shaikh, Ijaz Nabi, "International Growth Centre," 16 January 2017. [Online].
Available: https://www.theigc.org/blog/the-six-biggest-challenges-facing-pakistans-
urban-future/.

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