Building on the logic of hypothesis testing: T-tests

______________________________________________

1) Introduce the t-test and explain when it should be

used

2) Define Directional Hypotheses (one-tailed t-tests)

and contrast them with ‘Non-Directional Hypotheses’
(two-tailed t-tests) that were described in Chapter 8.

3) Learn how to find tcrit for directional hypotheses

4)Highlight a second method for making decisions

regarding the null hypothesis: the p-value method

5) Learn to calculate a p-value and review important

points about using this method

6) Demonstrate one measure for estimating whether an

experimental effect is large or small (Cohen’s D)

7) Advanced Topic: Calculating  and the Power

associated with a hypothesis test

8)Outline the steps for conducting Hypothesis Tests

using SPSS
 The Animal Cracker Packer
______________________________________________

Abby is the manager of an animal cracker factory. She is

concerned that her aging cracker packer might need to be
replaced. Each bag of crackers is supposed to weigh 454
grams. Abby would like to conduct a hypothesis test but
she faces one big obstacle: she does not know the
population variability (σ), which means she cannot use the
formula for zobs that we learned in Chapter 8.

Q: Have we ever faced a similar problem?

A:

Q: What did we do then?

A:

Q: Is that all?
A: Yes, no wait. We also substituted t for z.

Q: Is that we Abby should do now?

A:
 Limitations on hypothesis testing with z-scores
______________________________________________

1. Our sample must be large (> 30) in order for the

2. Even if our sample is not large, we can still be OK as

long as our population is
 These limitations can be overcome, simply by
However…

3. σ must be known.
a. This is a more serious limitation because it is
almost

Because most hypothesis tests use t as the test statistic,

statisticians generally refer to hypothesis tests as t-tests.
 What do we do if σ is unknown?
______________________________________________

Just like we did with confidence intervals:

1. Use as an estimate of
2. Use as our test statistic instead of

The basic steps for conducting t-tests

1. Determine the value for

2. Calculate
3. Compare with
 Step 1: Determining tcrit
______________________________________________

tcrit depends on the degrees of freedom; df = n-1

If α = .05, and n = 25, tcrit = t(.05, 24) =

 Step 2: Calculating tobs
______________________________________________

zobs tobs

M  0 M  0
z obs  t obs 
/ n s/ n

The only difference is that s replaces σ (of course if you

know σ, just go ahead and use σ).
______________________________________________

Step 3: Comparing tobs with tcrit

______________________________________________

Exactly the same as before.

 Steps for completing a t-test
______________________________________________

1) Specify the NULL hypothesis (HO)

2) Specify the ALTERNATIVE hypothesis (HA)
3) Designate the rejection region by selecting .
4) Determine the critical value of your test statistic
o Use appropriate degrees of freedom
5) Use sample statistics to calculate test statistic.
o tobs = M    / n
0

6)Compare observed value with critical value:

o If test statistic falls in RR, we reject the null.
o Otherwise, we fail to reject the null.
7) Interpret your decision regarding the null
o What do your data imply regarding the question
that motivated your experiment?
 Abby Lyons’ Animal Cracker Packer
______________________________________________

Abby samples the next 25 cracker bags packed by the

machine to determine whether it is putting 454 g of
crackers in each bag. The sample statistics are as follows:
M = 462 g; s = 16 g. Is the machine properly filling
cracker packages? Set  = .05.

Step 1: Ho:  = 454 g

Step 2: Ha:   454 g

Step 3: α = .05
Step 4: tcrit( = .05, df = 24) = ±2.064.
M  0 462.4  454
Step 5: tobs = s/ n = 16 / 25

= 8.4 / 3.2 = 2.625

Step 6: Because the tobs falls in the rejection region, we

would reject the null.
t (24) = 2.625, SEM = 3.2.

Step 7:
 Comparing tobs and tcrit: The Cracker Packer
______________________________________________
 Oooh! She's angry!
______________________________________

My statistical prowess has landed me a coveted internship

working for 'The Crocodile Hunter'! Steve (he let's me
call him Steve) has found a new group of crocs living at a
golf course in Perth. He wants to know how the length of
an average adult in this group compares to other adults in
the area. Owing to his many years of experience with
crocs, Steve knows that  = 21 feet. Because catching
and measuring crocs is dangerous – even for the
Crocodile Hunter – Steve is only able to capture and
measure four crocs (M = 24, s = 1.6); I was VERY far
away at the time. Does this sample provide enough
evidence to reject the null hypothesis? Assume  = .05.
 Non-Directional vs. Directional Hypothesis Tests
______________________________________________

Non-directional test – a hypothesis test in which

observing a sample mean in

 Null and alternative hypotheses

Ho:  = some value
Ha:   some value
 Rejection region split between two tails:

Non-directional test – a hypothesis test in which

observing a sample mean in

 Null and alternative hypotheses

Two possibilities…
 Rejection region located entirely

Directional Hypothesis Tests:

 What happens at the drive-thru?
______________________________________________

Let’s pretend that Abby leaves the cracker packer factory

for the fast-paced, high-pay, take-no-prisoners life of a
fast food restaurant manager. Abby is considering
whether or not to buy a new intercom system for the
drive-thru, so she rents one to test it out.

What if Abby rented the new intercom to reduce errors?

If the new intercom… …Abby would …
Increased errors

Did not change the

number of errors
Decreased errors

What if Abby rented the new intercom to increase sales?

If the new intercom… …Abby would …
Increased sales

Did not change sales

Decreased sales
 Statistical Hypotheses and the Rejection Region for
Directional tests: Decreasing Errors at the Drive-Thru
______________________________________________

Decreasing errors: the only meaningful result would be if

the sample mean fell at the extreme low end of the
sampling distribution. In this case:
Ho:
Ha:

And the rejection region would look like this:

 Statistical Hypotheses and the Rejection Region for
Directional tests: Increasing Sales at the Drive-Thru
______________________________________________

Increasing sales: the only meaningful result would be if

the sample mean falls at the extreme high end of the
sampling distribution. In this case:
Ho:  ≤ some value
Ha:  > some value

And the rejection region would look like this:

 Critical values for One- and
Two-Tailed Tests with the same 
______________________________________

Alternative Hypotheses
One-Tailed Two-Tailed
(n=25) (n=25)
 Level Lower-Tail Upper-Tail
 = .10 t< t> t<
or
t>
 = .05 t< t> t<
or
t>
 = .01 t< t> t<
or
t>

Are you more likely to reject the null for a one-tailed test
or a two-tailed test?

How do you decide which one to do?

 Choosing between one- and two-tailed tests
______________________________________________

By default, you should run a two-tailed test. You should

only run a one-tailed test if your research question
demands it; that is, if there is no practical or theoretical
significance to a result in one tail of the sampling
distribution.

Cracker Packer Example:

One-Tailed Test (RR in upper tail)

Ho:   454
Ha:  > 454 Problem?

OR

One-Tailed Test (RR in lower tail)

Ho:   454
Ha:  < 454 Problem?

OR

Two-Tailed Test
Ho:  = 454
Ha:   454 Problem?
 Finding tcrit for Directional Hypotheses
______________________________________________
 Steps for conducting t-tests: including directional tests
______________________________________________

1) Decide whether you are conducting a one- or a two-

tailed test.
2) Specify the NULL hypothesis (HO)
o 2-tailed: µ = some value;
o 1-tailed: µ ≤ or ≥ some value
3) Specify the ALTERNATIVE hypothesis (HA)
o 2-tailed: µ ≠ some value
o 1-tailed: u > or < some value
4) Designate the rejection region by selecting .
5) Determine the critical value of your test statistic
(remember to use appropriate df)
o 2-tailed: /2 in the tail
o 1-tailed: α in the tail
6) Use sample statistics to calculate test statistic.
o tobs = M    / n
0

7) Compare observed value with critical value:

o If test statistic falls in RR, we reject the null.
o Otherwise, we fail to reject the null.
8) Interpret your decision regarding the null
o What do your data imply regarding the question
that motivated your experiment?
 Comparing the results of one- and two-tailed t-tests
______________________________________________

Big Bad Lou as a One-Tailed Test

You lost a lot of money at the track and were forced to
become the personal statistician of notorious underworld
crime boss “Big Lou”. Big Lou wants to know if his son
“Moderately-Sized Lou” is stealing from his gambling
operation. Before Lou, Jr. took over the operation, it used
to gross $3500 per night (µ). “Big Lou tells you, “I don’t
care if he is grossing more than $3500, I only care if he’s
grossing less. Got it?!” At this point, you could give Big
Lou a big lecture regarding the theoretical considerations
that guide the choice between one- and two-tailed tests,
but I would not be so bold; in these matters, you should
let your conscience be your guide. You sample the gross
earnings of the casino over the next 25 nights. The
average of the sample is $3338; s = 450. Will
“Moderately-Sized Lou” be sleeping with the fishes if we
set  = .05?

Step 1: Big Lou has asked us to conduct a one-tailed test

with the entire rejection region in the lower tail.
Thus, our null and alternative hypotheses will be as
follows:
Step 2: Ho:   3500
Step 3: Ha:  < 3500
 Big Bad Lou as a One-Tailed Test: continued
______________________________________________

Step 4:  = .05
Step 5: tcrit (α=.05, df = 24; 1-tailed) = -1.711.
M  0 3338  3500
Step 6: tobs = s/ n = 450 / 25

= -162 / 9 = - 1.8

Step 7: Our observed t falls in the rejection region.

Therefore, we would REJECT the null:
t (24) = -1.8, SEM = 90.

Step 8:
 Big Bad Lou as a Two-Tailed Test
______________________________________________

Although it would be unwise for you to challenge Big

Lou’s decision to run a one-tailed test, the same is not true
for Mrs. Lou (who really wears the pants in this
underworld family). She loves her baby boy and wisely
asks you to conduct a two-tailed test, just to see what
would happen. After all, wouldn’t Lou Jr. deserve a big
raise if receipts from the gambling operation increased
rather than decreased? Bear in mind that, just like with
selecting a value for α, the time to make a decision
regarding whether to run a one- or two-sampled test is
BEFORE you have seen the data.

Step 1: Because we have decided to conduct a two-tailed

test, our statistical hypotheses would be as follows:

Step 2: Ho:  = 3500

Step 3: Ha:  ≠ 3500

Step 4:  = .05
Step 5: tcrit(α=.05, df = 24, 2-tailed) = -2.064.

Step 6: The observed value of our test statistic does not

change: tobs = -1.8
 Big Lou as a 2-tailed test: continued
_____________________________________________

Step 7: Our observed t DOES NOT fall in the rejection

region. Therefore, we would FAIL TO REJECT the
null: t (24) = -1.8, SEM = 90.

Step 8:

______________________________________________
Ethics: Be judicious when making a choice.
Choose before you see your data!
 Problems with the critical value method
______________________________________________

Critical value method: Decisions about the null

hypothesis are rendered by comparing the observed value

Problems with the critical value method:


Do drivers in Cambridge, MA run more red lights than
average?
Sample tcrit tobs
Mean
Professor 4.4 2.093 2.0930000000000000001
Click
Professor 4.3 2.093 2.0929999999999999999
Clack
 Introducing the p-value method
______________________________________________

Observed Significance level (p-value) – the probability

(assuming Ho is true) of observing a sample mean

P-value method. Decisions about the null are made by

calculating the probability of observing a sample
mean at least as far from µ0 as our sample mean (i.e.,
the p-value),
 Using the p-value method: Big Lou Question
______________________________________________

1. For a one-tailed test:

a. Find the area in the tail beyond zobs.
b. If the p-value is
i. Less than α,
ii. Greater than α,
Big Lou question: zobs = -1.80,
a. Area in the tail = .0359; that is the p-value.
b. We would:
the null if α = .10
the null if α = .05
the null if α = .01

2. For a two-tailed test:

a. Double the area in the tail beyond zobs. Why?
b. Use the same decision rule
Big Lou question: zobs = -1.80,
a. .0359 x 2 = .0718
b. We would:
the null if α = .10
the null if α = .05
the null if α = .01
 Important points about the p-value method
______________________________________________

1) The p-value method and the critical value method will

always

2) The p-value method gives us more information than

the critical value method, in that it tells us

 marginally significant results

 resolving Click and Clack’s debate

3) The p-value does not imply something about how

4) even
though – all things being equal – a lower p-value
implies a larger difference between M and µ0.BO
 What is the easiest way to increase the p-value
of an experimental result?

______________________________________________
BO
= beatable offense
 Effect sizes - Cohen’s D
______________________________________________

Effect size – a statistical procedure for determining the

d
Cohen’s D = M

d M =

Cohen’s d Evaluation
0 < d < .2 Small
.2 < d < .8 Medium
d > .8 Large

Effect size for the ‘Big Lou’ question:

Cohen’s d = d s M

= 3338  3500 450

= 162 450
= .36
 Steps for Conducting a Hypothesis Test: Final
______________________________________________

1) Decide whether you are conducting a one- or a two-

tailed test.
2) Specify the NULL hypothesis (HO)
o 2-tailed: µ = some value
o 1-tailed: µ ≤ or ≥ some value
3) Specify the ALTERNATIVE hypothesis (HA)
o 2-tailed: µ ≠ some value
o 1-tailed: u > or < some value
4) Designate the rejection region by selecting .
5) Determine the critical value of your test statistic
o 2-tailed: /2 in the tail; 1-tailed: a in the tail
6) Use sample statistics to calculate test statistic.
o tobs = M    / n
0

7) Make a decision regarding the null and report the

result using proper notation:
o Critical Value method:
 Reject the null if |zobs| > zcrit

 Other wise, fail to reject the null

o P-value method:
 Reject the null if p < 
 Fail to reject the null if p > 
o Calculate and interpret Cohen’s d (optional)
8) Interpret your decision regarding the null in terms of
 your original research question.
Little Rascals Example
______________________________________

The yield of alfalfa from six test plots is as follows:

2.1 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.9 1.9

tons per acre. The test plots were selected randomly

sampled and that the population distribution of alfalfa
yields is normal. Conduct a hypothesis test to determine
how the yield of these test sites compared with the
average yield of 1.5 tons per acre? (Hint: s = .434). Set α
= .01.
 Advanced Topic: Calculating  and Power
______________________________________

1) We assume that the null is false.

2) Calculate the minimum (maximum) value needed to

reject the null.

3) Because H0 is false, we must (somewhat arbitrarily)

choose a value for .

4) Calculate the area that falls below (above) the value

derived in Step 2.
 Calculating : Under the Bridge Example
______________________________________

The person in charge of traffic management is concerned

that too many cars are using the Coolidge Bridge (bridge
to Northampton). The bridge was only designed to carry
900 cars per day. A sample of the number of cars that use
the bridge in a 90-day period yielded an average of 980
cars with a standard deviation of 350. Do these data
suggest that traffic on the bridge exceeds capacity?
Calculate  and determine the power of the test.

Ho:  = 900
Ha:   900 Critical z =  1.96
M  0
Observed z = s/ n
980  900
= 350 / 90
= 80 / 36.89 = 2.17

REJECT the null.

 Calculating : Under the Bridge Example
______________________________________

1) What is the minimum value needed to reject H0 if it is

true?

Min Value = 900 + 1.96 (350 / 90)

900 + 1.96*36.89
900 + 72.31 = 972.31

2) Calculating : What is the probability of obtaining a

score of 972.31 or lower if H0 is false?
Must assume a value for . What would you recommend?

972.31  980
z = 350 / 90

= -7.69 / 36.89 = -.21

Area(Tail -.21) = .4168

Power = 1 -  = 1 - .4168 = .5832

Not too bad; .60s is considered good.

 Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002)
______________________________________________

Why no self-control?
 We discount future gains against
Solution?
 Impose costs on ourselves

Current experiment:
 Will people impose costs (deadlines) on
themselves to reduce procrastination?
 Will they choose optimal or effective deadlines?

Method:
 Deadlines evenly spaced by experimenter, or up to
subjects

Results:
 Self-imposed deadlines reduced performance, but

 Self-imposed equally-spaced deadlines yielded

Interpretation:
 People use deadlines to overcome procrastination
 Are they effective? Optimal?