CHAPTER FIVE: ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

5.1 INTRODUCTION
In most areas of human endeavor, there is always an element of uncertainty. If we
consider weather, a sporting event, a stock transaction, an election result, or a matter
relating to health, we are always faced with a certain degree of risk. Infact, according to
the old adage, the only things in life that are certain are death and taxes.
Therefore, we must be able to assess the degree of uncertainty in any given situation, and
this is done mathematically using probability. In particular, our primary goal in this
course is to understand and use inferential statistics which will allow us to make
predictions and decisions based on sample data. However, any statistical prediction or
decision also involves an element of uncertainty, and we need the ideas of probability to
assess its accuracy.
5.2 DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS
Random Experiment: An experiment is called a random experiment if when conducted
repeatedly under essentially homogeneous conditions, the result is not unique but may be
any one of the various possible out comes.
Example: i) Tossing a well balanced coin.
ii) Rolling a fair die
Trial and Event: Performing of a random experiment is called a trial and out come or
combination of outcomes are termed as events (cases).
Example: Tossing of a coin is a random experiment or trial and getting of head or tail is
an event.
Sample Space: The collection of all the possible out comes of a random experiment is
called the sample space and will be denoted by S.
Example: i) In tossing a coin once the sample space is S = {H.T}
ii) In rolling a die the sample space is S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Exhaustive cases: The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the
exhaustive cases (events) for the experiment.
Example: i) In throwing a coin once the exhaustive events =2
ii) In a throw of two dice the exhaustive events = 62=36
Favorable cases or events: The number of out comes of a random experiment which
result in the happening of an event are termed as the cases favorable to the event.
Example:
i) In a toss of two coins, the number of cases favorable to the event’ exactly
one head’ is 2,viz., HT,TH and for getting ‘ two heads’ is one viz., HH.
ii) In drawing a card from a pack of cards the cases favorable to ‘getting a
diamond’ are 13.

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Mutually exclusive events or cases: Events are said to be mutually exclusive if no two
or more of them can happen simultaneously (i.e. A  B   , B  C   , etc ).
Example: i) In a toss of a coin the events ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are mutually exclusive
because if head comes, we can’t get tail and if tail comes we can’t get head.
ii) Similarly in the throw of a die, the six faces numbered 1, 2,3,4,5 and 6 are
mutually exclusive.
Equally Likely Cases: Two or more events that have the same probability of occurrence
are said to be equally likely events.
Example: In tossing of a coin (die), all the out comes viz., H, T (the faces 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
are equally likely if the coin (die) is unbiased.
Independent Events: Two events or more are independent if the occurrence or non-
occurrence of one doesn’t affect the occurrence or non- occurrence of the other.
5.3 COUNTING TECHNIQUES
Addition Rule
Suppose that a procedure, designated by 1, can be performed in n1 ways. Assume that a
second procedure, designated by n2, can be performed in n2 ways. Suppose furthermore
that it is not possible that both 1 and 2 are performed together. Then the number of ways
in which we can perform 1 and 2 is n1+n2.
Example: Suppose that we are planning a trip and are deciding between bus or train
transportation. It there are three bus routes and two train routes, then there are 3+2=5
different routes available for the trip.
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He can take tea,
coffee, or milk with bread, cake and sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?
Solution:
Bread
Tea Cake
Sandwich

Bread
Coffee Cake
Sandwich

Bread
Milk Cake
Sandwich

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 There are nine possibilities.
The multiplication Principle
If one operation can be performed in m different ways and another operation can be
performed in n different ways, then the two operations when associated together can be
performed in mxn ways. The result can be generalized to more than two operations.
Example: Suppose a man traveling from his home to office has a choice of 4 buses and
from his office to his school he has a choice of 3 buses; then from his home to school,
through his office, he can make the trip in 4x3 = 12 ways.
Example: A student owns 3 pairs of sneakers, 5 pairs of jeans, and 20 shirts. If she
randomly selects one of each in the morning with out regard to color or matching, how
many different outfits does she have?
Solution: Here there are three operations with m  3, n  5, p  20
Then the total number of outfits possible is 3 x5 x 20  300 .

Exercise: An automobile manufacturer offers a certain car in 12 different colors, 3

different models (two door four-door and wagon), and 4 different engines. In addition air
conditioning is available. How many different car packages can be put together?
Permutation
Definition: A permutation of n different objects taken r at a time denoted by nPr or nPr or
P (n,r) is an ordered arrangement of only r objects out of the n – objects.
Theorem: The number of different permutations of n different objects taken r at a time
is given by
n!
n Pr  n  n  1 n  2  ...  n  r  1  r  n
 n  r !
Example: A student has 3 books and has a book shelf that will hold only 2 of them.
How many different arrangements are possible for the 2 books?
Solution: Let A, B and C be the three books. Then the possible arrangements for the 2
books are: AB, BA, AC, CA, BC, and CB.
Hence number of possible arrangements is equal to
3!
3P2   3!  6
 3  2 !
Example: From a committee of eight people in how many ways can we choose a
chairperson and a vice- chair person, assuming one person can not hold more than one
position?
Solution: We are actually asking for the number of permutations of eight objects taken two
at a time; that is, 8 P2 :

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 8! 8! 8.7.6!
8 P2     56
8  2 ! 6! 6!
Theorem: The number of permutations of n distinct objects, taken altogether, denoted
by n Pn , is n ! .
Example: If there are three letters A, B, C there are six possible permutations:
ABC, BCA, CAB, ACB, BAC, CBA.
This can be done by means of tree diagrams where the total number of paths as shown
gives the number of distinct permutations.

Permutation
B C ABC
A  A
C B ACB
A C BAC
B B
C A BCA
A B CAB
C C
B A CBA
n! n!
Note : 1) If r  n, n pr    n!
 n  r ! 0!
n! n!
2) n Pn 1    n !.Then n Pn  n Pn 1
 n  n  1! 1!

Example: In how many ways can five people be lined up to get on a bus?
Solution: 5! =120 different ways
Example: It is required to seat 5 men and 4 women in a row so that the women occupy
the even places. How many such arrangements are possible?
Solution: The men may be seated in 5 P5 ways and the women in 4 P4 ways. Each
arrangement of the men may be associated with each arrangement of the women.
Hence number of arrangements 5 P5 .4 P4
 5!4!
 120  24   2880
Theorem: The number of permutations of n objects taken n at a time in which n1 objects
of one kind are a like, n2 of another kind are alike,…, nk of a kind are alike is given by
n!
 where n1  n2  ...  nk  n 
n1 !n2 !...nk !

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Example: In how many ways can the letters the following words be written?
a) ECONOMICS
b) STATISTICS
Solution: a) C and O occur twice each hence the required number of ways is
9!
 90720 .
2!2!
b) S and T occur thrice each, and I occurs twice. Hence the required number of ways is:
10!
 50, 400
3!3!2!
Theorem: The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is  n  1 !
Circular permutations depend on the relative positions of objects. If there are n-objects we fix the
position of one object and arrange the remaining n-1 objects in all possible ways.
Example: In how many ways can four men be seated at a round table?
Solution: Let the four men be A, B, C and D. Then the different permutations of the 4 men round
a table are:
A A A A A A
D B C B B C D C C D B D
C D D B B C

Hence the 4 men can seat round a table in  4  1 !  3!  6 different ways.

Combinations
Definition: A combination of n different objects taken r at a time denoted by
n

Cr or n Cr or nr or C (n, r ) is a selection of only r objects out of the n -objects with out
any regard to the order of the arrangement. Here the order of arrangement is immaterial.
Theorem: The number of combinations of n distinct objects selected r at a time is given by
n! P
n Cr   n r
r!(n  r )! r!
Example 1: There are 3 combinations and 6 permutations of the letters A, B, C taken 2 at a time.
i.e. 3C 2  3, 3P2  6
AB AB BA
AC AC CA
BC BC CB

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Example 2: The number of ways in which a committee of 5 people can be selected from
12 people is
12 12! 12 X 11X 10 x9 x8 x7!
C5  
5!12  5 ! 5!7!
 792

Example 3: Out of 5 men and 3 women a committee of three is to be formed

a) Consisting of two men and one woman.
b) With out any restriction.
In how many ways can this be done?
Solution: a) 2 men out of 5 can be selected in 5 C2  10 ways, 1 woman out of 3 can be
selected in 3 C1  3 ways. By the multiplication principle, the committee
5! 3!
can be formed in x  10 X 3  30ways .
2! 5  2  ! 1! 3  1 !

8! 8.7.6
b) 3 people can be selected out of a total of 8 in 8 C3    56 ways .
3!5! 6
Remark: The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time are also known as
n
binomial coefficients. That is the expansion of  x  y  is
n
 x  y  n Co x n  n C1 x n 1 y  n C2 x n 2 y 2  ...  n Cr x n  r y r  ...  n Cn y n

n
  n Cr x n  r y r
r 0

5.4 DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

There are three approaches to the definition of probability.
1. Classical (Mathematical) definition of probability
If a trial (experiment) results in N exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely events and out
of these N , only m of them are favorable to the happening of an event E, then the probability of
occurrence of E usually denoted by P(E), is given by

Number of favourable events toE

P( E ) 
Exhaustive Events
m

N
Remarks: 1. 0  m  N , since m and N are non- negative integers.

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 0 m N
  
N M N
 0  PE 1
Hence probability of any event is a number lying between 0 and 1. P(E)=0 then E is called an
impossible or null event. If P(E) =1, then E is called a certain event (sure event).
1. If A and A’ are complementary events, then P  A   P  A '   1
Example: A fair coin is tossed twice. Find the probabilities of the events:
a) A= two heads
b) E=at least one tail
Solution: Here the sample space is S   HH , HT , TH , TT 
In this case each of the N=4 elements of S are exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely.
a) A= two heads = {HH}
Number of favourable events to A
 P  A 
Exhaustive Events
1

4
b) E=at least one tail = {HT,TH,TT}
nE 3
Hence, n  E   3 and P  E   
nS  4
Example: A bag contains 3 red, 6white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that the
two balls drawn are white and blue?
Solution: Total number of balls = 3+6+7=16.
16
Since 2 balls can be drawn out of 11 balls in C2 ways. Exhaustive number of cases = 16 C2

One white out of 6 can be drawn in 6 C1 ways and one blue out of 7 can be drawn in 7 C1
ways. Total number of favorable case = 6 C1 .7 C1 .
6
C1 .7 C1 42 7
 Probability that the two balls drawn are white and blue = 16  
C2 120 20

Example: A uniform die is thrown at random. Find the probability that the number on it is:
a) 5 b) greater than 4 c) even
Solution: Here S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
a) the number on it is 5= A= {5}

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 n  A 1
Then P  A   
nS  6

b) The number on it is greater than 4

nE 2 1
Thus, P  E    
n S  6 3

n  B 3 1
c) The number on it is even = B= {2, 4, 6}. Hence P  B    
nS  6 2
Example: A set of 10 items consists of 4 defective and 6 non- defective items. If 3 of
these are selected at random, what is the probability that:
a) all the selected items will be non-defective?
b) one of selected items will be non-defective?
c) all of the selected items will be defective ?
Solutions: Total number of items = 10. 3 items out of 10 can be selected in 10 C3 ways.

a) 3 non- defective items out of 6 can be selected in 6 C3 ways.

Let A be the event that all will be non-defective.
Total way in which A occurs 6 C3
 P(all the selected items will be non-defective)
6
C3 20 4
 10
 
C3 120 6

b) 1 item out of 6 can be selected in 6 C1 ways and 2 items out of 4 can be selected in 4 C2 ways.

6C1x 4C 2
 Re quired probability 
10C 3
6 x 6 36
 
120 120
3

10

c) 3 defective items out of 4 can be selected in 4 C3 ways.

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Then P(all of the selected items will be defective
4
C3
 10
C3
4

120
1

30

2. Relative Frequency (Statistical) definition of probability

Definition: If an event A occurs n times in a series of N independent random trials, then the
probability of the event A is
Number of times event A occurred
P  A 
Number of times exp eriment was run
n

N
Frequency of A

Total number of trials
 Re lative frequency of A
Example: Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain auto factory
are found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly. What is
the probability that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is a lemon?
Solution: Here total number cars in the sample are 500 and number of lemons is 10.
n 10
 P  next car is a lemon     0.02
N 500

Example: The following data show the length of life of wholesale grocers in a particular
city:
Length of life (years) Percentage of wholesales
0-5 65
5-10 16
10-15 9
15-25 5
25 and over 5
Total 100

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 a) During the period studied, what is the probability that an entrant to this profession
will fail with in five years?
b) That he will survive at least 25 years?
c) How many years would he have to survive to be among the 10 percent longest
survivors?
Solution: Here the exhaustive number of cases =100
a) An entrant to the profession of whole sale grocery will fail with in five ears if his life
(in this profession) is less than 5 years and the favorable numbers of cases for this event
(from the above table) are 65.
65
Hence required probability   0.65
100
b) A wholesale grocers will survive at least 25 years if his life in this profession is over 25 years
and the favorable number of cases for this event (from the above table ) are 5.
5
Hence required probability   0.05
100
c) From the above table we see that the number of wholesale grocers with age over 15 years is
5+5 =10, and therefore, the probability that a grocer survives at least 15 years is
10
 0.10 Thus in order to be among the 10 percent longest survivors, the grocer
100
should survive at least 15 years in the business life.
3. Axiomatic Approach to the definition of probability
This definition, introduced in 1933 by the Russian mathematician Andrei N. Kolmogrov, is based
on a set of AXIOMS.
Let S be a sample space associated to random experiment. A set function denoted by P(.)
defined in a sample space S, is called a probability measure ( or simply probability) if it
satisfies the following axioms.
1.P  A  0 A  S
2.P  S   1
3. If A1, A2, A3,…, An are mutually exclusive subsets of S, then
 n   n 
P   Ai   P   Ai 
 i 1   i 1 
n
  P  Ai  , We call P  A  is the probability of A.
i 1

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 10

Example: The distribution of blood types in the United States is roughly 41% type A,9%
type B, 4% type AB, and 46% type O. An individual is brought in to an emergency room
and is to be blood-typed. What is the probability that the type will be A, B or AB?

Solution: The sample space for this experiment is

S= {A, B, AB, O}
The Sample points are not equally likely so the classical approach to probability is not
applicable.
Let A1, A2, and A3 denote the events that the patient has type A, B and AB blood,
respectively. The events A1, A2, and A3 are mutually exclusive and we are looking
for P  A1  A2  A3  .

By axiom 3, P ( A1  A2  A3 )  P ( A1 )  P ( A2 )  P ( A3 )
 0.14  0.09  0.04
 0.54

5.5 SOME PROBABILITY RULES

5.5.1 ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY
Theorem: The probability of occurrence of at least one of two events A and B is given by
P  A  B   P  A  P  B   P  A  B  .

Example: In a group of 120 students, 60 are taking math, 40 are taking psychology, and
15 are taking both. A randomly chosen student from this group is selected.
a) What is the probability that he or she is taking either math or psychology?
b) What is the probability that he or she is taking neither one?
60
Solution: Here P(taking math) 
120
40
P( taking psychology) =
120
15
a) P (taking both math and psychology) =
120
 P(taking math or psychology)= P(taking math)+ P(taking psychology)- P( taking both)
60 40 15
  
120 120 120
85
  0.708
120

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b) Here number of students taking neither=120-85=35
35
P(neither math nor psychology)   0.292
120
Exercise: The probability that a student passes English is 4 , and the probability that he passes
9
statistics is 2 . If the probability of passing at least one course is 4 , what is the probability that
3 5
he will pas both courses?
Corollary: If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P  A  B   P  A   P  B  .
Example: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice are tossed?

Solution: Let A be the event that 7occurs and B the event that 11 comes up. Now a total of 7
occurs for 6 of the 36 out comes and a total of 11 occurs for only 2 of the out comes. Since all the
6
out comes are equally likely, we have P  A   and P  B   2 .
36 36
The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 or 11 cannot both occur on the same
toss.
Therefore, P  A  B   P  A   P  B  .

1 1
 
6 18
2

9

5.5.2 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Definition : The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that the event A has already
happened or occurred is called the conditional probability for the event B to happen and is denoted
by P  B \ A  is usually read” the probability that B occurs given that A occurred” or simply “the
probability of B given A”.

P  A  B
Note: 1.P  B \ A   if P  A   0
P  A

P  A B
2.P  A \ B   if P  B   0
P  B

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 12

Example: A coin is tossed twice. If it is already known that the first coin has shown a
head what is the probability of getting two heads?
Solution: Let A=The first coin shown a head.
B=Two heads occur.
Then S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
A= {HH, HT}, B= {HH}
A  B  {HH }
1 1
P  A  B   , P  A 
4 2
1
P  A  B 4
 P  B \ A   1
P  A 1 2
2
Example: Suppose that there are 900 adults in a small town who have completed the
requirement for a college degree. Some of these adults are employed while others are
unemployed. Some of the adults are males and while others are females. The table below
gives the number of adults in each category. One of these individuals is to be selected at
random for a tour throughout the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new
industries in the town.

Employed Unemployed

Male 460 40

Female 140 260

a) What is the probability that a man chosen is employed?

b) What is the probability that unemployed individual chosen is female?
Solution: a) Let M: a man is chosen
E: the chosen one is employed
P  M  E  460 23
Then P  M \ E     .
PE 900 30
600
900
b) Let U: unemployed individual is chosen
F: The chosen one is female

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 P U  F  260 900 13
Hence P U \ F    
PF  400 20
900
Example: 120 employees of a certain factory are given a performance test and are divided in to
two groups as those with good performance (G) and those with poor performance (P). The result
is given below:

Good performance Poor performance

(G) (P)

Male (M) 60 20
Female (F) 25 15

a) What is the probability that a made employee chosen:

i) Has a good performance?
ii) Has a poor performance?
b) What is the probability that a female employee chosen
i) Has a good performance?
ii) Has a poor performance?
Solution: From the above table we can see that
60  25 85 17
P G    
120 120 24
35 7
P P   
120 24
80 2
P M   
120 3
40 1
P F   
120 3

P  M  G  60120 1
a) i) P  M \ G     2
P G  17 17
24 24
12

17

P  M  P 1
4
ii ) P  M \ P    6 
P  P 7 7
24

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b) i) the probability of a person to be female given that she has good performance is given by:

P  F  G  25120 5
 F \ G   
P G  17 17
24

P F  P 15
ii) Similarly, P  F \ P    120
P P 35
120
7

24
Exercise: Suppose that an office has 100 calculating machines. Some of these machines
are electric (E) while others are manual (M). And some of the machines are new (N)
while other are used (U). The table below gives the number of machines in each category

E M

N 40 30

U 20 10

a) What is the probability that it is electric?

b) What is the probability that it is manual?
5.5.3 MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY
Theorem: The probability of simultaneous happening of two events A and B (both A
and B occur) is given by
P  A  B   P  A p  B \ A , P  A  0
 P  B  P  A \ B  , P  B   0.
Example: Suppose that two people are randomly chosen form a group of 4 women and 6 men.
a) What is the probability that both are women?
b) What is the probability that one is a woman and the other is a man?
Solutions:
a) Let A and B denote, respectively, the events that the first person selected is woman and that
the second person selected is a woman.
Then P  A  B   P  A  P  B \ A 
4 3 2
 x 
10 9 15

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 15

 b) Let A denote the event that the first person chosen is a man and B the event that the second
person chosen is a woman.
i) P  A  B   P  A P  B \ A
6 4
But P  A   , P  B \ A 
10 9

6 4 4
Then P  man then woman   . 
10 9 15

ii ) P  B  A   P  B  .P  A \ B 
4 3 2
 x 
10 9 15
4 6 4
 P  woman then man   . 
10 9 15

4 4 8
Therefore, we see that P 1 woman and 1 man    
15 15 15

Example: Given A and B are events such that P  A   0.6, P  B   0.2 and P  A \ B   0.5

Calculate : a) P  A  B 
b) P  B \ A 
c) P  A '\ B ' and
d) The probability that A has occurred given that at least one of A, B has occurred

5.5.4 INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Definition: Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of

one doesn’t affect the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
Equivalently, two events A and Bare independent iff
i) P  A / B   P  A
ii ) P  B / A   P  B 
iii ) P  A  B   P  A  .P  B 
Example: Two balls are drawn successively from a box contain 4 red balls and 6 white
balls. Find the probability that they are drawn in the order white and red if each ball is
a) replaced
b) not replaced

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 16

Solution: Let W be the white ball on the first draw and R be the red ball on the second draw.
a) If each ball is replaced, then the events are independent.
6 4 24 6
Hence, P W  R   P W  P  R   x  
10 10 100 25

b) If each ball is not replaced, then the events are dependent

thus, P W  R   P W  P R  W
6 4
 x
10 9
24 8
 
90 30

Remark: If A and B are independent events then

a) A and A′ are also independent.
b) A and B′ are also independent.
c) B and A′ are also independent.
d) A′ and B′ are also independent.
Example: Given two independent events A, B such that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.6
Determine:
a) P(A and B)
b) P(A and not B)
c) P(neither A nor B)
d) P(not A and B)
e) P(A or B)

Solution:
a ) P  A and B   P  A  .P  B   0.3x 0.6  0.18
b ) P  A and not B   P  A  .P  B '  0.3 1  0.6 
 0.3x 0.4
 0.28

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 17

 c) P  neither A nor B   P  A '  P  B '
 1  0.31  0.6 
 0.28

d ) P  not A and B   P  A ' P ( B )  1  0.3 0.6 

 0.42

e) P  AorB   P  A   P  B   P  A  B 
 P  A   P  B   P  A  .P  B 
 0.3  0.6  P  A  .P  B 
 0.9  0.18
 0.72

Example: A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post. The
1 1
probability of husband’s selection is and that of wife’s selection is . What is the probability
7 5
that
a) both of them will be selected?
b) none of them will be selected?
Solution:
a) P  both of them will be selected 
 P  H  P W 
1 1
 x
7 5
1
35

b) P  none of them will be selected 

 P  H '  P W '
6 4
 x
7 5
 24
35

Theorem :i ) P  A ' B   P  B   P  A  B 

 
ii) P A  B  P  A   P  A  B 

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 18

Proof: From the Venn diagram, it is obvious that the events A and B can be expressed as
disjoint unions as given below:


A  A  B A  B  
B  A  B   A  B  
Hence by the addition theorem of probability for mutually disjoint events we get

P  A  P  A  B   A  B 
  
 
 P A  B  P  A  B

 
 P A  B  P  A  P  A  B 

Similarly , P  B   P  A  B   A  B 
   

 P  A  B  P A  B 
 
 P A  B  P  B  P  A  B

A B

A  B A B A  B

MESERET TADDESSE EJETA 19