Report

on

THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE 

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The report examines the effects of increased CO2 concentrations in the earth's

atmosphere. The shifting of local weather patterns, the mechanisms of the
greenhouse effect, and the sources and sinks of CO2 are also discussed. A list of
possible remedies to the problem concludes the report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii

ABSTRACT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv

I. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

II. NATURAL WEATHER PATTERNS . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

III. MECHANISMS OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT . . . . . . . . 5

Natural Greenhouse Effect . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour . . 6
Positive Feedback Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . 7

IV. CARBON CYCLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

CO2 From Fossil Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Carbon Dioxide Produced by Different Fuels . . . . . . 10
Future Levels of Carbon Dioxide . . . . . . . . . 11

V. CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF INCREASED CO2 CONCENTRATIONS . . . . 13

Changes in Local Weather Patterns . . . . . . . . . 13

1930s as Climate Analog . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Increased Tropical Storm Activity . . . . . . . . . 14
Sea Level Increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

VI. WAYS TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE EFFECT . . . . . . . . . 16

VII. SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Information Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure Page

1. Combined Effect of the 180-Year Cycle and Increased CO2

Concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2. Growth Rate of Fuel Use: Two Different Models . . . . . 11

LIST OF TABLES
Table Page

1. Estimated CO2 Added to the Atmosphere by the Burning of

Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

2. Atmospheric CO2 Contribution by Region . . . . . . . 10

3. CO2 Contribution by Fuel Type . . . . . . . . . 11

4. Doubling Dates for CO2 Concentrations Models . . . . . 12

ABSTRACT
Since the Industrial Revolution, man has introduced tremendous amounts of carbon
dioxide into the earth's atmosphere. While some of this CO2 is assimilated into
natural reservoirs, approximately 50% remains airborne. This increase in
CO2 concentration causes what is commonly known as the greenhouse effect. The
greenhouse effect is a result of the absorption of infrared radiation by the surface of
the earth. This absorption causes an increase in the atmospheric temperature.
Increasing the earth's temperature in turn increases the amount of water vapor in
the atmosphere. Since water vapor is also a strong absorber of infrared radiation, a
positive feedback mechanism is created, leading to further infrared-radiation
absorption. As temperatures increase, atmospheric circulation patterns are altered
which will change local weather patterns.

These changes could have an enormous impact on agricultural production.

Attendant to a rise in the mean global temperature is a melting of small but
significant portion of the polar ice caps. This will result in a rise in sea level which
would flood coastal areas including major population centers. The problem of the
greenhouse effect might be remedied by a reduction in the use of fossil fuel, large
scale reforestation to increase the capacity of the biotic sink, and development of
alternate energy sources such as solar and nuclear fusion. However, not much hope
is held out for these remedies. 

Report on 
THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE 
 I. INTRODUCTION

Before the year 2020, the climate of the earth may be warmer than any time in the
past thousand years. This change, which is incredibly fast by geological time
scales, will be brought about by increased levels of carbon dioxide in the earth's
atmosphere. The most important source of excessive CO2 is the burning of carbon-
based fossil fuels for energy production. Carbon dioxide is a by-product of all
living systems and is normally considered harmless. It is a minor element in the
earth's atmosphere comprising only about 0.03% of the total atmosphere. However,
this small amount of CO2, along with water vapor, is responsible for what is
commonly known as the greenhouse effect.

The fact that changes in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could cause changes
in the earth's climate has been known for over one hundred years. However, only
in the last 5 to 10 years has significant research been done in this field. The most
ominous of the effects of a warmer climate will be the shifting of local weather
patterns. This shifting will have profound effects on agricultural production in a
world that is already unable to adequately feed its citizens today. There will also be
an accompanying redistribution of wealth which will likely lead to dangerous
social conflicts. It is obvious that the continued introduction of CO2 into the
atmosphere will have consequences far worse than producing a slightly balmier
climate.

The purpose of this report is to examine the climatic changes caused by increased
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and their implications for society. Also discussed
will be the mechanisms of the greenhouse effect, the sources and reservoirs of
carbon dioxide, and some possible methods to reduce the magnitude of the
problem. Note, however, that the most we can do at this point is lessen the severity
of the situation. That the mean global temperature will increase in the next few
decades is certain. The only questions are how much and how fast. 

II. NATURAL WEATHER PATTERNS

The earth's climate naturally changes over extended periods of time. Temperatures
have been much warmer for 80 to 90 percent of the last 500 million years than they
are today. The polar ice caps, for example, are actually a relatively new
phenomenon. They were formed 15 to 20 million years ago in the Antarctic and
perhaps as recently as 3 to 5 million years in the Arctic.

The climate is still dominated by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The most
influential of these natural weather patterns is the 180-year cycle. The 180-year
cycle predicts that temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere reach a minimum
every 180 years. (Climate records for the Southern Hemisphere are incomplete.)
The bottom of the last cycle was in the early 1800s, which suggests that we may
now be in a period of peak coldness. The winters of 1976 through 1979, which
were unusually bitter, seem to reinforce the theory behind the 180-year cycle. This
current cooling trend would mask any warming caused by an increased greenhouse
effect.

However, the 180-year cycle predicts a natural warming trend will begin shortly
before the end of this century. At the same time, the effects of elevated CO2 levels
on atmospheric temperatures will have increased to new high levels. Figure 1
shows the combined effects of these warming trends.

Therefore, temperatures could reach their highest level in several hundred years
shortly after the year 2000, and they will reach their highest level in the last
125,000 years by mid-century [1:7-11].

Figure 1. Combined Effect of the 180-Year Cycle and Increased

CO2 Concentrations. Source: Harold W. Bernard. The Greenhouse
Effect (Cambridge: Ballinger, 1980), 10.

III. MECHANISMS OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

For the mean global temperature to stay constant, the earth-atmosphere system
must be in radiative equilibrium with the sun. In other words, the incoming solar
radiation must match the outgoing thermal radiation from the earth. Of the
incoming solar radiation, 35% is reflected back into space. The reflectivity of the
earth is its albedo. The albedo is taken into consideration when the total energy
flux of the earth-atmosphere system is calculated. Of the remaining 65% of solar
radiation that is not reflected back, 47% is absorbed by the surface and 18% is
absorbed by the atmosphere. For the temperature of our system to remain constant,
this energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere must be radiated back out. This
radiation primarily takes place in the 5-micron to 30-micron range of wave lengths,
which is in the infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. A micron is one
millionth of a meter [2:755].

Natural Greenhouse Effect

The effective radiating temperature is the temperature the earth should have for the
amount of solar radiation it absorbs. Calculation of the effective radiating
temperature gives a value of -200° C. However, the observed mean global
temperature is 140° C. The difference of 340° C is caused by a natural greenhouse
effect that takes place in the atmosphere [11] . As the earth tries to lose heat into
space, the atmosphere absorbs infrared radiation emitted by the surface.
Specifically, the atmosphere allows 50% of the incoming solar radiation to reach
the surface but only 10% of the longwave radiation from the surface to escape.
This causes the temperature of the earth-atmosphere system to increase. The
magnitude of the greenhouse effect is defined as the difference between the upward
infrared radiation from the surface and the upward infrared radiation from the top
of the atmosphere [2:755].

Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor

The greenhouse effect is caused by minor constituents in the atmosphere, mainly

carbon dioxide and water vapor. The earth must radiate in the 5-micron to 30-
micron region. However, water vapor is a strong absorber of radiation over the
entire thermal spectrum except in the 8-micron to 18-micron interval. The 12-
micron to 18-micron interval is largely blocked by CO2 absorption. In fact, current
CO2 levels are sufficient to make the 15-micron band virtually opaque to infrared
radiation. The earth is, therefore, constrained to radiate its excess thermal energy in
a nearly transparent window from 8 microns to 12 microns. As anthropogenic
carbon dioxide is introduced into the atmosphere, mostly by combustion of fossil
fuels, absorption of infrared radiation in the 10-micron band and in the wings of
the 15- micron band is increased. This increased absorption results in an overall
warming of the earth-atmosphere system.

Positive Feedback Mechanisms

As the climate becomes warmer, positive feedback mechanisms tend to exacerbate
the problem. Elevations in temperature decrease the solubility of CO2 in the
oceans. Therefore, as temperature increases, the oceans release more CO2 into the
atmosphere, which causes another increase in temperature. Even more threatening
is the greenhouse water vapor coupling. The atmosphere tends to attain a definite
distribution of relative humidity in response to a change in temperature. If the
temperature is increased, the relative humidity, which is a measure of the amount
of water vapor in the atmosphere, is also increased. At the same time, the vapor
pressure of water is raised. The result is more water vapor in the atmosphere,
which causes more greenhouse effect, which raises temperatures even higher,
which again increases the water vapor in the atmosphere. This positive feedback
mechanism approximately doubles the sensitivity of surface temperature to a
change in the amount of energy absorbed by the earth [1:19]. 

IV. THE CARBON CYCLE

The annual increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is dependent on several

factors. First is the amount of carbon dioxide produced by consumption of carbon-
based fuels. Subtracted from this amount is the carbon dioxide that is removed
from the atmosphere and stored in reservoirs, or sinks. The most prominent sinks
of carbon dioxide are the atmosphere, the oceans, and the biosphere. Also
contributing to a net increase in CO2 is the deforestation of large land areas each
year. The amount of carbon dioxide produced from fossil fuels and the annual
increase in atmospheric concentrations are both well known. Approximately 50%
of the CO2produced from fossil fuel remains in the atmosphere. The rest is
absorbed into sinks. The proportion of CO2 that goes into each sink and the
mechanisms of CO2removal are poorly understood.

CO2 From Fossil Fuel

Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, about 154.4 gigatons (G ton) of
carbon have been added to the atmosphere. One gigaton is equal to one billion
tons. Even more alarming is the fact that of this 154.4 G tons, about 27%, or 45 G
tons, were produced from 1970 to 1978. Overall, the use of carbon-based fuels has
increased at an exponential rate of 4.3% per year from 1860 to the mid-1970s. (See
Table 1.) High energy costs should help to slow the use of fuels, although no
significant reductions in demand have yet been observed.

Table 1. Estimated Carbon Added to the Atmosphere

by the Burning of Fuels (G tons per year)
Year Carbon Added (G tons)
 1950 1.63
1960 2.16
1970 3.96
1975 4.87
1978 5.62
Source: Gordon J. MacDonald. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide Levels (Cambridge: Ballinger, 1982), 152.

It is expected that industrialized countries will be able to significantly reduce the

use of fossil fuels for energy production by using clean energy sources such as
solar and nuclear. However, a growing world population will place heavy pressure
for increased energy use, especially in developing countries. The percentage of
CO2produced by geographical regions in 1974 and the projected contribution
expected in 2025 is listed in Table 2. Even though the United States will reduce its
contribution from 27% to 8%, the amount produced by developing regions in the
same time will more than triple [4]. 

Carbon Dioxide Produced by Different Fuels

The amount of carbon added to the atmosphere depends on the type of fuel being
burned. Fuels with a high hydrogen- to-carbon ratio produce the most energy for
each unit of carbon released. The dirtiest fuels, in terms of carbon dioxide, are the
various synthetic fuels that are produced from coal. Synfuels release large amounts
of CO2 because energy must be expended to extract them from coal. Therefore, the
carbon dioxide generated from producing the synfuel must be added to that
released by combustion. Because the world has very large coal reserves, research
into synfuel production has increased greatly. Although synfuels could
significantly reduce the dependence of the United States on petroleum, they would
tend to accelerate the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Table 3 lists the
amount of CO2 released by each type of fuel.

Table 2. Percent of Atmospheric CO2 Contribution by Nation and

Continent
Nation or Continent 1974 2025
USA 27 8
 USSR & Eastern Europe 25 17
Western Europe 18 10
Central Asia 8 19
Japan, Australia, N. Zealand 7 4
Developing Asia -- 4
Developing America 4 40
Developing Middle East -- 3
Developing Africa -- 2
Source: Committee on Governmental Affairs, U. S. Senate. Carbon Dioxide
Accumulation in the Atmosphere, Synthetic Fuels and Energy Policy(1979), 451.

Table 3. CO2 Contribution by Fuel Type. Carbon released per 100

quads of energy produced (1 quad=1015 Btu).
Fuel Carbon in 10[-15] Grams
Oil 2.00
Gas 1.45
Coal 2.50
Synfuels 3.40
Source: Committee on Governmental Affairs, U. S. Senate. Carbon Dioxide
Accumulation in the Atmosphere, Synthetic Fuels and Energy Policy(1979), 451.

Future Levels of Carbon Dioxide

Future inputs of carbon from fossil fuels are dependent upon world energy
consumption and on the mix of fuels used. Two models have been devised to
estimate the world consumption of carbon-based fuels in the future. The first
model is based on the historical growth rate of 4.3% per year.
Figure 2. Growth Rate of Fuel Use Computed With Two Different Models. Source:
Gordon J. MacDonald. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide Levels (Cambridge: Ballinger, 1982), 34.

If the world use of fossil fuels is maintained at that level, the proven energy
reserves would be exhausted by 2010 to 2015. The second model, and probably the
more accurate one, postulates that the current growth rate will continue until 1990,
and then the rate of growth will decline to zero over a fifty-year period. Figure 2
graphically compares growth rates from both models. This tapered growth scenario
would postpone the exhaustion of proven reserves by ten to fifteen years.
However, actual use of carbon-based fuels could continue for some time after this,
since the total amount of recoverable reserves is much greater than the proven
reserves. Obviously, these estimates are greatly simplified, since they were devised
to give minimum times to exhaustion of energy reserves.

As conventional fossil fuels become more expensive, it is likely that world fuel
usage will shift to a different combination of fuels than used today. Changes in this
fuel mix causes more uncertainty in estimates of future CO2 inputs into the
atmosphere. Table 4 gives the dates for doubling of CO2 concentrations for various
fuel use combinations [9].

Table 4. Doubling-Dates for Carbon Dioxide Concentrations for

Different Fuel Use Combinations.
4.3% Exponential
Fuel Tapered Growth
Growth
Current Fuel Mix 2035 2055
All Coal After 1990 2030 2045
All Synthetics After 2022 2030
 1990
All Natural Gas After
2043 2075
1990
Source: Gordon J. MacDonald. The Long-Term Impacts, 84.

V. CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF INCREASED CO2 CONCENTRATIONS

Current estimates for doubling-dates of carbon dioxide concentrations range from

about 2020 to 2075. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels will cause an increase
in the mean global temperature of about 30° to 50° C with an increase of about
120° C at the polar regions. The reason for the amplified effect at the poles is that
the atmosphere has a much lower concentration of water vapor at the poles than at
lower latitudes. Therefore, an increase in atmospheric CO2 will cause a relatively
larger increase in the greenhouse effect over the poles. This warming then
increases the water vapor present by melting ice, which causes the process to be
self-enhancing.

Changes in Local Weather Patterns

As the temperature of the atmosphere is increased, the global circulation patterns

will be shifted. This will cause widespread changes in local weather patterns.
Although mathematical models devised by meteorologists can describe overall
climatic changes, they are not able to predict these small-scale variations in local
conditions. One method that can be used is to examine weather records for a period
when the temperature was higher than it is today.

The 1930s As Climate Analog

The most recent global peaked in the 1930s. The 1930s averaged about 10° C
warmer than recent decades have. In the United States, a greater number of state
records for high temperatures were set in the 1930s than in any decade since the
1870s. The 1° C increase is analogous to the initial decade of CO2-induced
warming which should occur shortly after the turn of the century.

Drought

The most significant feature of a warmer climate is the absence of adequate

precipitation. The drought of the 1930s has been called the greatest disaster caused
by meteorological factors. Research into climate records by studying tree rings has
determined that 1934 was the driest year in the western United States since 1700. If
the atmospheric circulation patterns of the 1930s return early next century because
of warmer temperatures, agricultural production and water supplies could be
seriously affected. Even though food production would decline, modern
agricultural practices would probably prevent a catastrophe like the dust bowl of
the 1930s. Water supply, however, is a different situation. Particularly hard hit will
be the region of the West that draws water off the Colorado River basin. This
region, which is already plagued by water shortages, could be devastated by a
drought that lasts several years.

Increased Tropical Storm Activity

The warming of the atmosphere will cause the sea temperature to rise as well. This
will result in more tropical storms being generated. The 1930s were a period of
increased tropical storm activity. Twenty-one tropical storms blew up in 1933,
seventeen in 1936; the current average is nine per year. These storms will also be
able to reach higher latitudes because of warmer seas [1:35-50].

Sea Level Increase

Researchers have suggested that conditions similar to those of the 1930s could
persist for as long as 25 years. During this time the earth's temperature will still be
increasing and a longer range problem will become evident. The polar ice caps
would begin to melt, raising the sea level. This will be a slow process, but one that
will be irreversible once the greenhouse threat is fully realized. A rise in ocean
levels of between 15 to 25 feet is possible in as little as 100 years. Coastal regions
would be flooded causing tremendous destruction of property. Along the Texas
coast, for example, Galveston, Corpus Christi, Beaumont, and Port Arthur all
would be permanently inundated. As many as 10 nuclear reactors would be in
danger of flooding and contaminating the ocean. The 15- to 25-foot raising of sea
levels is for normal tides with storm tides reaching even farther inland [4]. 

VI. WAYS TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The severity of the consequences of this major climatic change requires that action
be taken to lessen man's input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The
greenhouse threat is a global problem that calls for global action. Unfortunately,
the political structure of the world tends to impede cooperation on a global scale.
Even with these difficulties, it is imperative that the use of carbon-based fuels be
reduced significantly. The United States, as the world's leading consumer of
energy, could influence world opinion and stimulate action by taking decisive
measures. Some of the steps that need to be taken are:

1. A concerted effort must be made to conserve fuel with a goal of reducing

global consumption 20% worldwide by the year 2000. Public knowledge of
 the effects of CO2 on the climate is needed. A tax on fossil fuel would
provide an extra incentive to conserve. The revenue from such a tax could
be used to further development of alternate energy sources.
2. The use of a combination of fossil fuels that will minimize the input of
CO2 into the atmosphere must be emphasized. Natural gas is the cleanest of
the fossil fuels and large reserves of gas have been found. Coal is also found
in abundance in the United States and is therefore likely to be increasingly
used for energy production. However, coal releases 75% more CO2 into the
atmosphere per unit of energy produced than does natural gas. Because of
this, use of coal should be de-emphasized and use of natural gas
emphasized.
3. Alternate energy sources, such as solar and nuclear, should be developed.
There is a substantial amount of emotional opposition to nuclear power,
which will impede the expansion of its use. Solar power, as are wind and
wave power, is ideal in that it is constant and non-polluting. The technology
is not quite at a stage where solar power is economically feasible. A strong
effort must be made to develop this highly attractive source of energy.
4. Reforestation on a massive global scale is needed to provide a large biotic
sink in the next few decades. The total respiration of CO2 should be less than
the total photosynthesis on a regional and worldwide basis. Fast- growing
trees, such as the American Sycamore, can absorb as much as 750 tons of
carbon per square kilometer per year. Water hyacinths can absorb 6000 tons
of carbon per square kilometer per year. The growth of biomass for energy
production could serve as an additional method of reducing
CO2 accumulation because it would only involve recycling between carbon
pools of the biosphere and the atmosphere.
5. Research into the carbon cycle is needed to reduce the uncertainties
surrounding predictions of climatic changes. Although the amount of carbon
dioxide that is released and the amount that remains airborne is well known,
the method by which CO2 is assimilated into sinks, such as the ocean and the
biosphere, is poorly understood. Typical estimates of the amounts of
CO2 absorbed annually by the ocean and the biosphere are 2 G tons and 1
ton, respectively [4]. 

VII. SUMMARY
Carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere is the most dangerous
pollution problem today. This excess of CO2 will cause an increase in the
mean global temperature which should be detectable shortly before the end
of this century. This warming is caused by the greenhouse effect.
CO2 allows incoming radiation from the sun to enter the atmosphere. The
heat from the earth's surface, which must radiate in the infrared region of the
spectrum, is absorbed by CO2 and water vapor, thereby raising the
atmospheric temperature. The greenhouse water-vapor coupling provides a
strong positive feedback mechanism. Fossil-fuel use increases at an
exponential rate of 4.3% annually. This should cause a doubling of
CO2 concentrations by between the year 2020 and the year 2075. This
doubling of atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the mean global
temperature of about 30° to 50° C. Warmer temperatures will cause a shift
in atmospheric circulation patterns. This will cause local weather patterns to
change. The results for the United States could be intensive drought,
increased tropical storm activity, and a rise in the sea level caused by
melting of the polar ice caps. To lessen the severity of the problem, fossil
fuel consumption must be curtailed and alternate energy sources developed.
Also, a global reforestation program should be undertaken to provide a large
biotic sink for CO2 in the new few decades. 

INFORMATION SOURCES
1. Bernard, Harold W. The Greenhouse Effect. Cambridge: Ballinger,
1980.
2. Bryson, Reid A. "A Perspective on Climate Change." Science (May
17, 1974), 753-759.
3. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U. S. Senate. Hearings
on the Effects of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere.
Washington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1980.
4. Committee on Governmental Affairs, U. S. Senate. Carbon Dioxide
Accumulation in the Atmosphere, Synthetic Fuels and Energy
Policy. A symposium. Washington: U. S. Government Printing
Office, Washington: 1979.
5. Gribbin, John. "Fossil Fuel: Future Shock?" New Scientist (December
1980), 541-543.
6. Idso, S. B. "Climate Significance of Doubling
CO2 Concentrations." Science (March 28, 1980), 128-134.
7. Kellog, W. W. and Schneider, S. H. "Climate Stabilization for Better
or For Worse?" Science (December 18, 1974), 1163-1171.
8. Lewin, Roger. "Atmospheric CO2: A New Warning." New
Scientist (April 1975), 211-214.
9. MacDonald, Gordon J. The Long-Term Impacts of Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels. Cambridge: Ballinger, 1982.
10.Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T. "Distribution of Climate Change
Resulting From Increase in CO2 Content of the Atmosphere." Journal
Atmospheric Science (January 1980), 99-118.
11.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Inadvertent Climate
Modification: Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate.
Cambridge, 1971.
12.Stuiver, M. "Atmospheric CO2 and Carbon Reservoir
Changes." Science (January 20, 1978), 253-258.