Syntax Program SAS untuk Metode Fungsi Transfer Multi Input dengan Deteksi Outlier Pada

Kasus Curah Hujan Harian di Kota Surabaya

data FTMI;
input X1 X2 X3 Y;
datalines;
26.83 75.3 4.06 0.57
26.72 73.6 4.84 5.68
26.56 74.0 5.10 0.11
24.83 73.7 4.34 0.25
27.17 73.7 4.57 0.13
28.17 74.5 2.88 0.29
25.33 72.7 2.66 0.57
.
.
.
30.83 75.5 2.93 5.68
;
proc arima data=FTMI;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X1 SUHU -------------------*/
identify var=X1(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(1,8) q=(1,33) noconstant plot;
run;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X2 KELEMBABAN -------------------*/
identify var=X2(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(2,8,19) q=(1,2,3,20,24,25) noconstant plot;
run;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X3 KA -------------------*/
identify var=X3(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(2,5,23) q=(1,2,5,6) noconstant plot;
run
forecast out=ramalan lead=31;
run;
outlier maxnum=125 alpha=0.05;
run;
data FTMI;
set FTMI;
if _n_>=1914 then s1914=1;
else s1914=0;
if _n_>=1955 then s1955=1;
else s1955=0;
if _n_>=1500 then s1500=1;
else s1500=0;
if _n_>=521 then s521=1;
else s521=0;
if _n_>=2315 then s2315=1;
else s2315=0;
if _n_>=495 then s495=1;
else s495=0;
if _n_>=438 then s438=1;
else s438=0;
if _n_=738 then a738=1;
else a738=0;
if _n_>=712 then s712=1;
else s712=0;
if _n_>=2150 then s2150=1;
else s2150=0;
if _n_>=1232 then s1232=1;
else s1232=0;
if _n_=374 then a374=1;
else a374=0;
if _n_=1247 then a1247=1;
else a1247=0;
if _n_>=1460 then s1460=1;
else s1460=0;
if _n_>=1881 then s1881=1;
else s1881=0;
if _n_=1427 then a1427=1;
else a1427=0;
if _n_>=415 then s415=1;
else s415=0;
if _n_=433 then a433=1;
else a433=0;
if _n_=421 then a421=1;
else a421=0;
if _n_=532 then a532=1;
else a532=0;
if _n_=533 then a533=1;
else a533=0;
if _n_>=2709 then s2709=1;
else s2709=0;
if _n_=1417 then a1417=1;
else a1417=0;
if _n_=468 then a468=1;
else a468=0;
if _n_=923 then a923=1;
else a923=0;
if _n_=1549 then a1549=1;
else a1549=0;
if _n_>=1861 then s1861=1;
else s1861=0;
if _n_>=1844 then s1844=1;
else s1844=0;
if _n_>=23 then s23=1;
else s23=0;
if _n_=782 then a782=1;
else a782=0;
if _n_=1599 then a1599=1;
else a1599=0;
if _n_=703 then a703=1;
else a703=0;
if _n_=2397 then a2397=1;
else a2397=0;
if _n_=2379 then a2379=1;
else a2379=0;
if _n_>=1108 then s1108=1;
else s1108=0;
if _n_=911 then a911=1;
else a911=0;
if _n_>=1006 then s1006=1;
else s1006=0;
if _n_>=1930 then s1930=1;
else s1930=0;
if _n_=2352 then a2352=1;
else a2352=0;
if _n_=979 then a979=1;
else a979=0;
if _n_=2376 then a2376=1;
else a2376=0;
if _n_=693 then a693=1;
else a693=0;
if _n_=2514 then a2514=1;
else a2514=0;
if _n_>=1169 then s1169=1;
else s1169=0;
if _n_>=2265 then s2265=1;
else s2265=0;
if _n_=794 then a794=1;
else a794=0;
if _n_=1598 then a1598=1;
else a1598=0;
if _n_=2630 then a2630=1;
else a2630=0;
if _n_=2386 then a2386=1;
else a2386=0;
if _n_=2502 then a2502=1;
else a2502=0;
if _n_=955 then a955=1;
else a955=0;
if _n_=912 then a912=1;
else a912=0;
if _n_=85 then a85=1;
else a85=0;
if _n_=2708 then a2708=1;
else a2708=0;
if _n_=411 then a411=1;
else a411=0;
if _n_=1595 then a1595=1;
else a1595=0;
if _n_=1633 then a1633=1;
else a1633=0;
if _n_=40 then a40=1;
else a40=0;
if _n_=2889 then a2889=1;
else a2889=0;
if _n_=2398 then a2398=1;
else a2398=0;
if _n_=1746 then a1746=1;
else a1746=0;
if _n_=435 then a435=1;
else a435=0;
if _n_=1536 then a1536=1;
else a1536=0;
if _n_=1585 then a1585=1;
else a1585=0;
if _n_=1477 then a1477=1;
else a1477=0;
if _n_=1622 then a1622=1;
else a1622=0;
if _n_=1580 then a1580=1;
else a1580=0;
if _n_=2887 then a2887=1;
else a2887=0;
if _n_=967 then a967=1;
else a967=0;
if _n_=1042 then a1042=1;
else a1042=0;
if _n_=1066 then a1066=1;
else a1066=0;
if _n_=1100 then a1100=1;
else a1100=0;
if _n_=1922 then a1922=1;
else a1922=0;
if _n_=1226 then a1226=1;
else a1226=0;
if _n_=471 then a471=1;
else a471=0;
if _n_=337 then a337=1;
else a337=0;
if _n_=450 then a450=1;
else a450=0;
if _n_=444 then a444=1;
else a444=0;
if _n_=447 then a447=1;
else a447=0;
if _n_=981 then a981=1;
else a981=0;
if _n_=407 then a407=1;
else a407=0;
if _n_=455 then a455=1;
else a455=0;
if _n_=441 then a441=1;
else a441=0;
if _n_=805 then a805=1;
else a805=0;
if _n_=457 then a457=1;
else a457=0;
if _n_=689 then a689=1;
else a689=0;
if _n_=395 then a395=1;
else a395=0;
if _n_=161 then a161=1;
else a161=0;
if _n_=60 then a60=1;
else a60=0;
if _n_=313 then a313=1;
else a313=0;
if _n_=413 then a413=1;
else a413=0;
if _n_=1017 then a1017=1;
else a1017=0;
if _n_=825 then a825=1;
else a825=0;
if _n_=870 then a870=1;
else a870=0;
if _n_=1288 then a1288=1;
else a1288=0;
if _n_=2529 then a2529=1;
else a2529=0;
if _n_=837 then a837=1;
else a837=0;
if _n_=839 then a839=1;
else a839=0;
if _n_=1221 then a1221=1;
else a1221=0;
if _n_=851 then a851=1;
else a851=0;
if _n_=876 then a876=1;
else a876=0;
if _n_=1933 then a1933=1;
else a1933=0;
if _n_=816 then a816=1;
else a816=0;
if _n_=1850 then a1850=1;
else a1850=0;
if _n_=1076 then a1076=1;
else a1076=0;
if _n_>=2736 then s2736=1;
else s2736=0;
if _n_>=1091 then s1091=1;
else s1091=0;
if _n_=817 then a817=1;
else a817=0;
if _n_=514 then a514=1;
else a514=0;
if _n_=745 then a745=1;
else a745=0;
if _n_=778 then a778=1;
else a778=0;
if _n_=817 then a817=1;
else a817=0;
if _n_=411 then a411=1;
else a411=0;
run;
proc arima data=FTMI;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X1 SUHU -------------------*/
identify var=X1(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(1,8) q=(1,33) noconstant plot;
run;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X2 KELEMBABAN -------------------*/
identify var=X2(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(2,8,19) q=(1,2,3,20,24,25) noconstant plot;
run;
/*--- Pemodelan ARIMA X3 KA -------------------*/
identify var=X3(1) nlag=24 noprint;
run;
estimate p=(1,5,7) q=(1,2,5,6) noconstant plot;
run;
/*--- Fungsi Transfer Multi Input ------*/
identify var=Y(1) crosscorr=(X1(1) X2(1) X3(1) s1914(1) s1955(1) s1500(1) s521(1) s2315(1) s495(1) s438(1) a738(1)
s712(1) s2150(1) s1232(1) a374(1) a1247(1) s1460(1) s1881(1) a1427(1) s415(1) a433(1) a421(1)
a532(1) a533(1) a1417(1) a468(1) a923(1) a1549(1) s1861(1) s1844(1) s23(1) a782(1) a1599(1) a703(1)
a2397(1) a2379(1) s1108(1) a911(1) s1006(1) s1930(1) a2352(1)
a979(1) a2376(1) a693(1) a2514(1) s1169(1) s2265(1) a794(1) a1598(1) a2630(1) a2386(1) a2502(1)
a955(1) a912(1) a85(1) a2708(1) a1595(1) a1633(1) a40(1) a2889(1) a2398(1) a1746(1) a435(1)
a1536(1) a1585(1) a1477(1) a1622(1) a1580(1) a2887(1) a967(1) a1042(1) a1066(1) a1100(1) a1922(1)
a1226(1) a471(1) a337(1) a450(1) a444(1) a447(1) a981(1) a407(1) a455(1) a441(1) a805(1)
a457(1) a689(1) a395(1) a313(1) a413(1) a1017(1) a825(1) a870(1) a1288(1) a2529(1) a837(1) a839(1)
a1221(1) a851(1) a876(1) a1933(1) a816(1) a1850(1) a1076(1s2736(1) a514(1) a745(1) a778(1) a817(1)
a411(1)) nlag=24;
run;
estimate p=(8) q=(1,21) input=( 0 $ (1,2) / (0) X1 0 $ (0) / (0) X2 s1914 s1955 s1500 s521 s2315 s495 s438 a738 s712 s2150
s1232 a374 a1247 s1460 s1881 a1427 s415 a433 a421 a532 a533 a1417 a468 a923 a1549 s1861 s1844
s23 a782 a1599 a703 a2397 a2379 s1108 a911 s1006 s1930 a2352 a979 a2376 a693 a2514 s1169 s2265
a794 a1598 a2630 a2386 a2502 a955 a912 a85 a2708 a1595 a1633
a40 a2889 a2398 a1746 a435 a1536 a1585 a1477 a1622 a1580 a2887 a967 a1042 a1066 a1100 a1922
a1226 a471 a337 a450 a444 a447 a981 a407 a455 a441 a805 a457 a689 a395 a313 a413 a1017 a825
a870 a1288 a2529 a837 a839 a1221 a851 a876 a1933 a816 a1850 a1076 s2736 a514 a745 a778 a817
a411 ) noconstant plot;
run;
forecast out=ramalan lead=31;
run;
outlier maxnum=125 alpha=0.05;
run;
proc univariate data=ramalan normal plot;
var residual;
run;
proc export data=work.ramalan
/*-----memindahkan file-----*/
outfile='D:\FTMIx_Siap.xls'
dbms=excel replace;
sheet="FTMIx_Siap";
run;