Solar PV Atlas: Solar Power

in Harmony with Nature

Towards 100 per cent renewable energy
Solar PV Atlas: PARTNERS
WWF FIRST SOLAR 3TIER FRESH GENERATION
WWF is one of the world’s largest Founded in 1999, First Solar has become 3TIER helps the global energy market Working to expedite a global shift to
and most experienced independent the world’s premier provider of fully manage renewable energy risk. A sustainable energy economies, Fresh
conservation organizations, with over 5 integrated solar solutions, creating value- pioneer in wind and solar generation risk Generation provides resource, market,
million supporters and a global network driven renewable energy projects that analysis, 3TIER uses weather science and policy analysis to increase the speed,
active in more than 100 countries. represent the leading edge of utility-scale to frame the risk of weather-driven efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of
solar technology and innovation. variability – anywhere on Earth, across renewable energy adoption. Founded in
WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation all time horizons. With offices serving 2009, Fresh Generation has experience
of the planet’s natural environment and Having constructed and commissioned North America, Europe, the Middle East, in both large- and small-scale renewable
to build a future in which humans live in many of the world’s largest, state-of- Africa, India, Latin America, and the Asia energy development. The firm has served
harmony with nature, by conserving the the-art photovoltaic (PV) power plants Pacific region, 3TIER has global reach high-profile clients in media, energy and
world’s biological diversity, ensuring that in operation today, First Solar has with services spanning renewable energy security.
the use of renewable natural resources is established a portfolio of customers project feasibility, energy marketing and
sustainable, and promoting the reduction that include some of the world’s most asset management. 1616 H St. NW Suite 900
of pollution and wasteful consumption. sophisticated energy buyers. The firm’s full Washington, DC 20006
service approach ensures the successful 2001 Sixth Avenue, Suite 2100 United States
The Global Climate & Energy Initiative delivery of clean, affordable solar Seattle, WA 98121 www.freshgeneration.com
(GCEI) is WWF’s global programme power and spans the entire value chain, United States
addressing climate change and a move including module manufacturing; project www.3tier.com
to 100% renewable energy through development; engineering, procurement,
engagement with business, promoting and construction (EPC); financing; and
renewable and sustainable energy, scaling operations and maintenance (O&M).
green finance and working nationally
and internationally on low carbon 350 West Washington St., Suite 600 ISBN 978-2-940443-63-5
frameworks. Tempe, AZ 85281
United States Front cover photo: © First Solar
Avenue du Mont-Blanc www.firstsolar.com Copper Mountain, Nevada, USA
1196 Gland Sempra Energy using First Solar modules
Switzerland (58 MW)
www.panda.org

1
 Solar PV Atlas

CONTRIBUTORS
Editors in Chief: Jean-Philippe Denruyter and Lettemieke Mulder
Principal Writer: Allison Archambault
Principal Cartographer: Christian Sarason
Special thanks to: Michael Anderson, Ceren Ayas, Bryn Baker,
Gwen Bender, Leo Bottrill, Maria De Lope,
Karen Drozdiak, Saliem Fakir, May Guerraoui,
Nyoman Iswarayoga, Tish King, Aarti Khosla,
Yaprak Kurtsal, Laura Luckhurst, Faouzi Maamouri, Ben
Mahler, Richard McLellan, Alin Moncada,
Susana Moriera, Abhishek Nath, Mustafa Özgür Berke, TS
Panwar, Vanessa Perez-Cirera,
Voahirana Randriambola, Indra Sari Wardhani,
Chris Sewell, Jay A. Scouten, Aurelie Shapiro,
Winslow Sheffield, Stephan Singer, Christoph Stein, Todd
Stone, Maja Wessels, Katrin Windolf, and
Richard Worthington.

2
3
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV Atlas: CONTENTS

Executive summary 6

100 per cent RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050 8

MAPS AND PROFILES 12

Indonesia 12
Madagascar 17
Madhya Pradesh, India 21
Mexico 25
Morocco 31
South Africa 35
Turkey 40

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2050 44

Efficiency and electrification 44
Access and equity 44

ELECTRICITY IN HARMONY WITH NATURE: PHOTOVOLTAICS 46

© Alain Compost / WWF-Canon

APPENDICES 50
Annex 1: About this atlas – data, assumptions and process 50
Annex 2: Impact categories for utility-scale solar PV 54
Annex 3: Development example –Desert Sunlight 56
Glossary 57
Notes and references 60

4
 SOLAR ATLAS: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Renewable energy requires land. But just The atlas considers electricity demands in that solar PV could provide about 30 per
how much? seven diverse regions and calculates the cent of global total electricity in 2050. Of
area (land or roof) that would be needed course, grid integration, storage and bal-
This atlas illustrates some answers for for PV to meet these demands. In each ancing are important issues to address for
one sector, solar photovoltaic electricity, of these cases, less than one per cent of renewable energy to be successful. These
in seven different regions. the region’s total land cover would be topics are beyond the scope of the atlas
required to host solar PV panels in order but are covered in The Energy Report by
The Energy Report, published by WWF to meet one hundred per cent of the re- WWF.
in 2010, called for renewable energy to gion’s projected electricity needs in 2050,
meet all global energy needs by 2050. taking into account solar resources and With its selection of diverse areas, the
While a balanced portfolio of renewable predicted electricity consumption and atlas illustrates that PV technology, when
energy sources will ultimately fill global demographic changes. well-planned, does not conflict with
energy needs, this atlas considers solar conservation goals. On a macro level, no
photovoltaic electricity. Today, solar pho- While it is unlikely that all electricity will country or region must choose between
tovoltaic electricity, sometimes called just come from solar PV in 2050, this “100 solar PV and space for humans and
PV, provides 0.1 per cent of total global per cent” scenario serves to illustrate that nature. Quite the opposite. As climate
electricity generation. However, PV has even using very conservative numbers change threatens humans and the envi-
seen an average annual growth rate of for calculations, the maximum amount of ronment, it is more important than ever
more than 40 per cent since 2000. Now a space solar PV could need, on the ground to work for the efficient and wide-scale
well-established, commercially available and on buildings, is relatively low. In a adoption of well sited, responsibly and
and reliable technology, it has significant realistic global portfolio of renewable en- effectively operated renewable energy
potential for long-term growth in nearly ergy generation technologies, PV will very generation facilities. Environmental
all world regions now and in the coming likely require far less land than illustrated protection and renewable energy can and
decades. here. Several credible scenarios suggest must develop in parallel.

5
 Solar PV Atlas

At the local level, there has been some con-

cern that PV development could conflict with
livelihood and conservation goals. While these
concerns are important to consider, research
has consistently found that, when developed
responsibly, ground-mounted and roof-mounted
solar PV power plants provide considerable
economic and environmental benefits. PV solar
manufacturers, project developers, policy mak-
ers, and other relevant parties should convene a
multi-stakeholder initiative to establish global,
sector-wide guidelines for responsible commu-
nity engagement and land management.

Each region selected for this atlas holds great so-

lar resource. Resource availability alone, howev-
er, does not define markets. Policy also shapes
a nation’s energy supply, and, despite consider-
able obstacles to overcome, there is room for
optimism in each of the selected regions. From
bold targets to tiny first steps, the policies noted
in this atlas show potential for large and sustain-
able solar market development if expanded and
enacted well.
© First Solar

6
 100 per cent Renewable Energy by 2050: Our future is renewable

WWF has a vision The way we produce and use energy this direction. Figures recently released This atlas builds upon the The Energy
of a world that today is not sustainable. Our main fossil estimate that renewable energy sources Report, published by WWF in 2010,
fuel sources – oil, coal and gas – are finite supplied 16.7 per cent of global final which calls for renewable energy to meet
is powered by 100 natural resources. Furthermore they are energy consumption in 2010, and mod- all global energy needs by 2050. Pub-
per cent renewable the main contributors to climate change, ern clean sources of electricity – like lished jointly with that report, an energy
energy sources by and the race to the last “cheap” fossil wind and solar – are growing at impres- scenario by Ecofys* illustrates one path
the mIddle of this resources evokes disasters for the natural sive rates.1 Though it currently provides to attaining that goal and shows how a
century. environment. Nuclear energy poses its just 0.1 per cent of total global electricity combination of efficiency measures and
own threats to humanity and the environ- generation,2 solar PV has been growing renewable generation, using today’s tech-
WWF, The Energy
ment and remains cost-prohibitive when the fastest of all renewable energy tech- nologies, can meet global energy needs to
Report : 100 per cent
full costs are considered. In the develop- nologies, with operating capacity increas- unlock a future of low carbon prosperity.
Renewable by 2050
ing world, regional and local desertifica- ing by an average of 58 per cent annually
tion is caused by the depletion of fuel- between 2006 and 2011.3
wood that is often used very inefficiently
causing substantive indoor pollution and We stand at an exciting moment of tran-
millions of deaths annually. A fully sus- sition when renewable energies are com-
tainable renewable power supply is the peting head-to-head with long-subsidized
only way we can secure energy for all and fossil and nuclear power. People around
avoid environmental catastrophe. WWF the world are grasping the importance
has a vision of a world that is powered by of a clean and sustainable energy future
100 per cent renewable energy sources by while clean technology prices are drop-
the middle of this century. ping and policy makers are restructuring *The WWF Energy Report and the Ecofys Energy
Scenario are available for free download at
markets. www.panda.org/energyreport
Already the world is moving quickly in

7
 Solar PV Atlas

Space for humans

400 Nuclear
Coal
and nature
Natural gas
350 WWF strongly believes that renewable energy
Oil
Bio: Algae can develop in harmony with humans and nature.
300 Bio: Crops While a balanced portfolio of renewable energy
Bio: Comp.Fellings* sources will ultimately fill global energy needs, this
Final energy (EJ/a)

250 Bio: Traditional atlas provides some colourful examples for one
Bio: Resid.&Waste major technology, solar photovoltaic electricity.
200 Hydropower
Geo: Heat
Geo: Electricity
A series of maps gives a high-level perspective
150 on how renewable energy development, human
Solar thermal
Conc. solar: Heat development and biodiversity conservation can go
100
Conc. solar: Power hand in hand. The nature of this exercise is not to
Photovoltaic solar analyse where exactly solar parks should be devel-
50 Wave & Tidal oped or to discuss which specific areas should be
Wind: Off-shore
protected but simply to illustrate how much space
0 Wind: On-shore
would be required for the development of solar PV.
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
As reference we also highlight currently identified
biodiversity hotspots, protected areas, and areas
Figure 1: Global ENERGY Supply where high numbers of people now live.
Ecofys projects that nearly all global energy needs could come from renew-
ables by 2050. In this scenario, total energy consumption would fall by about On a macro level, no country or region must
15 per cent by 2050 compared to today with efficiency measures having a choose between solar PV and space for humans
stronger trend influence than population growth. Source: The Energy Report, and nature. Quite the opposite. As climate change
December 2010. threatens humans and the environment, it is more
important than ever to work for the efficient and
wide-scale adoption renewable energy generation
facilities which are sited and operated responsibly.

8
 Less than one per cent POPULATION DENSITY SOLAR RESOURCE

Environmental protection and renewable As the solar irradiance maps illustrate, the sun
energy can and must develop in parallel. shines brightly for these selected locations. We
illustrate that in each of these cases less than
This atlas looks at Indonesia, Mada- one per cent of the region’s total land Land required for Land required for
gascar, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, cover would be required to host solar PV to meet 100 per PV to meet 100 per
cent of electricity cent of electricity
Turkey, and the Indian state of Madhya PV generation in order to meet one production production

Pradesh. The regions represent diverse hundred per cent of the region’s pro- In 2010 In 2010
geographies, demographics, natural jected electricity needs in 2050, taking In 2050 In 2050

environments, economies and political into account predicted electricity consumption

structures. They receive different aver- and demographic changes.
2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day

age levels of sunshine, and all show vast

potential for widespread development While it is unlikely that all electricity will come Protected Areas
Population Density > 100/km2
of solar PV. By curating this selection from solar PV in 2050, this “100 per cent” Population Density > 1000/km2
of places, we hope to illustrate that PV scenario serves to illustrate that the maximum
technology, when well-planned, does not amount of space solar PV could need, on the
conflict with conservation goals. ground and on buildings, is relatively low. In Figure 2: Example atlas maps
a realistic global portfolio of different renew- For Madagascar, one of the atlas focus regions,
able energy generation technologies, PV will the almost invisibly small red square on the maps
very likely require far less land than illustrated above illustrates the total surface area needed for
here. For instance, the Ecofys scenario sug- PV production to equal all of the country’s cur-
gests that solar PV will provide about 30 per rent electricity production. The larger blue square
cent of global total electricity in 2050. represents the surface area required to meet 100 per
cent of projected electricity consumption in 2050.
Of course, grid integration, storage and bal- These squares are shown next to currently identified
ancing are important issues to address for protected zones and densely-populated areas (left)
renewable energy to be successful. These top- and next to the country’s solar resource (right). The
ics are beyond the scope of the atlas but are solar resource shows values for global horizontal
covered in The Energy Report. irradiance (GHI).4

9
 Solar PV Atlas

LESS THAN ONE As we look at the “solar boxes” drawn on the electricity needs from PV, it is clear that there
PER CENT OF EACH maps and think about different land uses, we is enough space for solar PV in each of the
shouldn’t forget that other human activity and selected regions without developing large-scale
REGION’S LAND COVER conventional energy also require land. The plants in protected areas or other areas that are
WOULD BE REQUIRED built environment–buildings and roads–has not suitable for social, economic, technical or
TO HOST SOLAR already claimed much land that now has roofs, environmental reasons. In those zones, solar
PV GENERATION IN awnings, and other potential for shade stru- PV would be limited to small applications for
ORDER TO MEET 100 tures that could host PV. No additional land is local needs. Indeed, well-sited solar energy in-
required for such co-location of PV with these stallations of all sizes can go hand in hand with
PER CENT OF THAT existing structures. New ground-mounted PV protection of biodiversity.
REGION’S PROJECTED systems often offer remarkable economy of
ELECTRICITY NEEDS land for the value of electricity they produce. Each region selected for this atlas holds great
IN 2050. As comparison, ground-mounted PV systems solar resource. Resource availability alone,
in areas of high insolation require less land however, does not define markets. Policy also
than the coal-fuel cycle coupled with surface shapes a nation’s energy supply, and despite
mining to produce the same amount of elec- considerable obstacles to overcome, here too
tricity.5 we found reason for optimism in the selected
regions. From bold targets to tiny first steps,
“GROUND-MOUNT PV SYSTEMS IN AREAS OF HIGH the policies noted in this atlas show potential
INSOLATION REQUIRE LESS LAND THAN THE COAL- for large and sustainable solar market develop-
FUEL CYCLE COUPLED WITH SURFACE MINING” ment if expanded and enacted well.

In each of the selected regions, ground-mount-

ed solar photovoltaic plants hold huge poten-
tial but need to be carefully sited. Given the
very limited amount of total land (and/or roof
space) required for even 100 per cent of total

10
 INDONESIA
Solar PV Atlas: Indonesia
Less than one third of With a population of almost 250 mil- mountainous regions. In the low-lying port. Well planned renewable energy will
one per cent (0.27 per lion, Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most regions there are numerous coastal eco- not only improve access to sustainable
cent) of Indonesia’s land populous nation. In 2010 gross domestic systems including sand dunes, estuaries, energy for all but will also reduce emis-
would need to host solar product (GDP) per capita was US$4,394, mangroves, coral reefs and tidal flats. sions and help protect biodiversity.
PV generation in order and 12.5 per cent of the population in In addition, 60 per cent of Indonesia’s
to meet 100 per cent of 2011 was below the national poverty landmass is covered by forest. The rapid
the country’s projected line.1 As of 2011, 71 per cent of residents development and industrialization of Electric Sector Profile (2010 and 2011)
electricity needs in 2050. had access to electricity.2 Indonesia is the Indonesia has led to massive (and often Installed Capacity* 29.27 GW
world’s third-largest emitter of green- illegal) deforestation and wildfires that Total generation 183,421 GWh
house gasses (GHG), with 3.01 billion threaten many of the indigenous species
Average Residential Elec-
metric tons of greenhouse gases emit- and ecosystems in addition to contrib- tricity Price
US$0.065/kWh
ted in 2007, a combined result of energy uting to 85 per cent of its annual GHG Electricity consumption/
620 kWh
production and deforestation.3 emissions.5 capita
Average electricity con-
Indonesia is an archipelago nation However, in recent years the Indonesian sumption/capita in IEA 9,200 kWh
located in Southeast Asia, between the government has shown that it is commit- countries (2009)
Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is second ted to changing these statistics. As a non- Electricity Generation Mix (2011)
only to Brazil in terms of biodiversity and Annex 1 signatory of the Kyoto Protocol,
Coal 42 per cent
second to Australia in number of endem- Indonesia is not bound to adhere to the
ic species. Its tropical climate supports treaty’s regulations, but the government Oil 32 per cent

approximately 17 per cent of all species affirmed its commitment to reducing Natural gas 24 per cent
in the world with 515 mammal species, emissions at the 2009 G20 Finance Min- Hydro 8 per cent
122 species of butterflies, 600 species of isters and Central Bank Governors Sum- Geothermal 3 per cent
reptiles, 1,531 species of birds, 270 spe- mit.6 The government has committed to
* Only reflects 2011 PLN owned and rented
cies of amphibians and 28,000 flower- reduce GHG emissions by 26 per cent capacity.
ing plants.4 The majority of Indonesia is below the business-as-usual scenario
comprised of coastal lowlands, although by 2020 and has indicated a 41 per cent
several of the nation’s larger islands have reduction target with international sup-

11
 Solar PV Atlas

INDONESIA
Electricity sector
Eighty-five per cent of electricity supply comes in subsidies from the government in 2009), so The total technical potential for renewable capac-
from coal, oil and natural gas powered plants. increased production will fall mainly on IPPs.10 ity from hydropower, biomass, geothermal and
Off-grid capacity in 2010 was 6.4 GW, split evenly Indonesia’s most recent energy policy was for- mini/micro hydro is estimated at 155 GW, which,
between renewable and non-renewable (diesel) malized in Energy Law 30/2007, but many of its assuming the current overall capacity factor of 66
sources.7 provisions have yet to be concretely defined. The per cent, could add around 900 TWh. By com-
law calls for the formation of goals regarding uti- parison, the electricity demand is expected to be
In 2011 Indonesia’s total installed capacity of lization and use of energy resources, security of around 600 TWh in 2025 (assuming 9 per cent
electricity reached 37 GW, with approximately supply, energy conservation and protection of the annual growth).
78 per cent of production coming from PLN, the environment with regard to energy use, pricing
state-owned utility.8 The unbundling of PLN’s and international cooperation. Additionally the Due to its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”
assets began in 1995, and in 2009, the Electric- law mandates the creation of a National Energy Indonesia could install natural hydrothermal
ity Law 30/2009 allowed for electricity supply Council whose tasks include: drafting a national systems of about 27-31 GW. Enhanced Geother-
and distribution to be licensed to privately owned energy policy, declaring measures to resolve the mal Systems (EGS) could increase greatly this
Independent Power Producers (IPPs). However, current energy crisis and providing guidance potential. WWF’s Ring of Fire programme seeks
PLN still has the “right of first priority” for any and management on implementation of policies large-scale expansion of geothermal (i.e., 9.5 GW
new production projects and still owns the cur- regarding energy R&D and the increasing role of by 2025) in Indonesia through the creation of
rent power grid. IPPs, which currently provide less than 5 per cent enabling policy frameworks and building local
of Indonesia’s electricity.11 capacity. Solar resources are abundant, and solar
Indonesia is facing an electricity supply cri- energy could contribute significantly to the
sis with rolling blackouts during peak demand Currently about 15 per cent of on-grid capac- generation mix if fully utilised.13
periods. Energy demand is expected to grow by ity comes from renewable energy (RE) sources,
9 per cent annually over the next decade, and mainly in the form of large-scale hydroelectric As is expected, achieving the potential generation
by 2020 the government plans to have 90 per and geothermal facilities developed by PLN. Over capacity faces several major obstacles. For ex-
cent of households connected to the grid.9 At the the past five years, RE electricity generation in ample, of Indonesia’s nearly 76 GW of hydroelec-
current rate, annual energy demand in 2050 is Indonesia has increased by more than 5 per cent tric potential, 46 per cent is concentrated in the
projected to reach 2.6 billion GWh. PLN is not annually. Recently private developers have en- province of Papua, far from areas of demand and
expected to have the financial means to meet the tered the Indonesian market after a down period in the midst of vast mountain ranges, rain-forests
increases in demand (PLN received US$4.9 bln following the Asian financial crisis.12 and ecologically protected areas.14 These factors

12
 INDONESIA
would make development of generation facili- The government’s commitment to improv- In Indonesia’s densely populated cities, where
ties and transmission infrastructure particularly ing electricity quality and access for its people, rolling blackouts generally last several hours
challenging. particularly by inviting IPPs into the market, will each day, a similar approach could reduce the
provide significant opportunities for RE growth. strain on the current grid and eliminate black-
Entering the Indonesian RE market is not a There are several major issues to overcome, in- outs. With an efficient deployment process and
simple endeavour, but the opportunity is worth cluding the highly inefficient and unreliable grid upgrades to the grid, solar power could signifi-
consideration. There is clear political willingness currently in place and the viability of delivering cantly contribute to electricity production in
to promote this market. In its proposal to parlia- RE generated in remote areas to consumers, but Indonesia. The Indonesian government appears
ment, the National Energy Council set a target they can largely be mitigated by the implementa- to realize this; in 2009, Indonesia distributed
of having 39.5 per cent of Indonesia’s electricity tion of solar, not only throughout rural Indone- 77,433 PV solar home systems of 50 W peak
supply come from RE sources by 2050.15 Vision sia, but also in high-population areas. modules to individual households, and nine
25/25, an unofficial target in Indonesia’s latest PV array systems of 150 kW peak each to com-
draft on new energy policy, calls for 25 per cent
of total energy produced in 2025 to come from
renewable sources. Notably, PLN has called for
Solar PV munities in rural and remote areas throughout
Indonesia. Similar numbers were distributed in
2008.17 Sustainability of these programs is ques-
at least 57 per cent of total green energy produc- Solar energy has a significant and unique poten- tionable, as on-going service is often neglected.
tion capacity to be IPP provided by 2019.16 tial in Indonesia. It is well suited to both large-
and small-scale production, which is favoured The conditions for solar PV are excellent across
Due to its climate—both environmental and by the Indonesian government and PLN as it can the Indonesian islands with mountainous re-
governmental—Indonesia appears to be a prime easily be installed in remote villages. The effect gions receiving some of the best sun in the
area for investment in RE production systems. of this is two-fold. Many of these remote villages country. The country’s annual average insolation
currently rely on diesel generators for electric- is 5.2 kWh/m2/day.
RE Source Installed capacity (2010) ity so replacing them with solar systems would
Hydroelectric 2.3 GW significantly reduce GHG emissions and could A total of just 725 square kilometres of solar
Geothermal 600 MW save the logistical difficulty of adding such re- panels would generate enough electricity to meet
Biomass 500 MW
mote areas to the power grid. It is often the most Indonesia’s total current electricity generation.
Wind 30 MW
economical option as well. Because population and per capita electricity
consumption are expected to rise in the com-
Solar 17 MW

13
 Solar PV Atlas

INDONESIA
POPULATION DENSITY Land required for PV to meet 100
per cent of electricity production
In the year 2010

In the year 2050

ing years, 4,900 square kilometres of

land dedicated to solar production would
be required to meet 100 per cent of the
country’s total electricity needs in 2050.
Concentrated into one location, this land
would represent a square of about 70
kilometres on each side. The solar map
shows the area of land needed for 2010 Protected Areas
generation (red square) as well as land Population Density > 100/km2
use needed to meet electricity demand in Population Density > 1000/km2
2050 (blue square). In other words, even
based on very conservative estimates, less
than one third of one per cent (0.27 per
cent) of Indonesia’s land would need to
host solar PV generation in order to meet SOLAR RESOURCE Land required for PV to meet 100
100 per cent of the country’s projected per cent of electricity production
electricity needs in 2050. This projection In the year 2010
assumes that those living in Indonesia are 725 km
2

In the year 2050

consuming the projected global average
2
725 km
2
4897 km
amount of electricity for 2050, which is 4897 km
2

more than 6.5 times current per capita

consumption.

2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day
14
2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day
 Sunset in Madagascar © Martin Harvey / WWF-Canon

15
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV Atlas: MADAGASCAR

Less than one-fifth of one The Republic of Madagascar is home pensive oil imports for transport and for along the eastern coast, dry forests in
per cent (0.13 per cent) to approximately 22.6 million people a large share of its electricity. In 2010 the west, volcanic mountains in the
of Madagascar’s land (2012).1 In 2009, the country’s per imports of petroleum products grew to north and the Spiny Forest in the south.

MADAGASCAR
would need to host solar capita GDP was US$438.2 Most of the US$472 million.5 In response to rising The climate is tropical along the coast,
PV generation in order population has no access to electricity global oil prices, the government and temperate inland, and arid in the south,
to meet 100 per cent of and cooks with biomass fuels. the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate supporting a great range of biodiversity.
the country’s projected (NPD) agreed to develop the country’s
electricity needs in 2050. Madagascar’s electricity sector is rela- energy production sector. Though NPD Sustainable renewable energy and ener-
tively limited. Eighty per cent of Mada- suspended its work in 2009 due to polit- gy efficiency can contribute, as part of a
gascans lack access to electricity,3 and ical instability, plans for oil and uncon- broad set of measures, to both promote
rural dwellers are particularly worse ventional oil exploration continue. Malagasy socioeconomic development
off with 93 per cent lacking access to and reduce the energy sector’s environ-
electricity. Without access to electricity, The dependency on polluting energy mental footprint. RE can reduce Mada-
Madagascans use kerosene and battery- sources is socially and economically gascar’s costly dependence on imported
based devices for lighting and electric- problematic, and it threatens one of oil, kerosene, disposable batteries, and
ity. Though effective stop-gaps, these Madagascar’s major assets: biodiver- traditional biomass while developing
solutions have significant health and sity. Split from the African continent remote off-grid or mini-grid electricity
environmental costs associated with in- more than 160 million years ago, the access.
door combustion and the disposal of the island developed its own distinct ecosys-
batteries. Traditional biomass for cook- tems and extraordinary wildlife. Ap- Recent government pledges for Sustain-
ing is putting a heavy burden on people proximately 92 per cent of Madagascar’s able Energy for All have yet to play out
and the environment. Eighty per cent of reptiles, 68 per cent of its plant life and but fit a clear need.
wood consumption is for firewood and 98 per cent of its land mammals, in-
charcoal, representing 18 million cubic cluding lemurs, exist naturally nowhere
metres annually, a large share of which else on Earth. The world’s fourth-largest
is harvested at unsustainable levels.4 island, covering more than 144 mil-
lion acres, Madagascar is comprised of
The country is highly dependent on ex- lush lowland rainforests and mountains

16
 Electricity sector
There are currently 115 small and mid- Renewable electricity is currently mainly Electric Sector Profile
sized power plants operating in Madagas- produced from hydropower.8 There are Installed Capacity (2009) 410 MW
car with a total capacity of 406 MW6 and a few isolated and relatively small wind

MADAGASCAR
1,350
annual output of 1.2 million MWh. Twenty- and solar projects on the island. However, Total net generation (2009)
GWh
one of these plants are part of the only two there is significant additional renewable Average residential US$0.20/
interconnected grids (IG): Antananarivo energy potential. Presently, Madagascar is Electricity Price (2011) kWh
IG and Fianarantsoa IG. Power plants using only 1.3 per cent of its estimated 7.8 Electricity consumption/
45 kWh
are heavily dependent on two sources of GW potential.9 Particulary in the north and capita (2008)
energy: hydropower (60 per cent) and south, several locations show very good Average electricity con-
thermal power running on imported diesel wind conditions with average speeds over sumption/capita in IEA 9,200 kWh
countries (2009)
and heavy fuel oil (40 per cent). Despite 6 m/s. There is huge potential for solar
large structural subsidies, the average price energy as well. Electricity Sources (2010)
of electricity to the consumer is US$0.20/ 60 per
Hydropower production
cent
kWh. At these rates, RE, whether grid- There is currently some support to exploit
Thermal power production 40 per
connected or not, can become a strong and this vast renewable energy potential, such
produced using: cent
cost-effective alternative to the status quo. as the rural electrification fund from the
rural Electrification Agency (ADER). These Gas oil (16.5 per
cent)
Between 2004 and 2009 demand grew at projects, however, face significant barriers Fuel oil (23.5 per
an annual average rate of 7 per cent. The such as relatively more expensive initial cent)
Madagascar Action Plan (2006), prior to investments than those required by com-
its suspension, planned the construction parable thermal plants, non-systematic
of three new large thermal plants using oil financial support for renewable energy
RE Source Installed Capacity (2008)
and the development of a new hydropower projects, unfair competition with sub-
Hydro 124 MW
plant. Beyond hydropower, the Action Plan sidized fossil fuel based electricity, high
aimed to increase the use of other renew- dependency on foreign aid, and hurdles to Wind nominal

able sources of energy (solar, wind, biofuel) developing scaled investments. Solar nominal
from 0 per cent in 2006 to 3 per cent in
2012.7

17
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV POPULATION DENSITY SOLAR RESOURCE

As can be seen on the solar map, the
conditions for solar PV are excel-
lent across the island. The prevailing

MADAGASCAR
trade winds that come from the east
result in a small reduction in solar
irradiance on the windward side of
Madagascar. Overall however, the
solar resource in Madagascar is very
strong, with over two-thirds of the
island having an annual average inso-
lation greater than 6 kWh/m2/day.
Even on the rainy side of Madagascar
annual insolation is greater than 5 Land required for Land required for
kWh/m2/day. PV to meet 100 per PV to meet 100 per
cent of electricity cent of electricity
production production
Four and a half square kilometres of
solar panels would generate enough In the year 2010 In the year 2010
electricity to meet Madagascar’s
total current electricity generation. In the year 2050 In the year 2050
Because population and per capita
electricity consumption are expected
to rise in the coming decades, 780
square kilometres of land dedi-
cated to solar production would be
required to meet to meet 100 per
Protected Areas
cent of Madagascar’s total electric-
Population
ity needs in 2050. Concentrated into Density > 100/km2 2 4 6 8

one location, this land would repre- Population

2
kWh / m / day
Density > 1000/km2

18
 sent a square of about 28 kilometres around the capital, Antananarivo and
on each side. The solar map shows southward; the port cities of Maha-
land needed for 2010 generation (red janga on the northwest coast and

MADAGASCAR
square) as well as land use needed Toamasina on the east coast also have
to meet electricity demand in 2050 appreciable population densities,
(blue square). In other words, even which make them good targets for
based on very conservative estimates, larger-scale PV installations.
less than one-fifth of one per cent
(0.13 per cent) of Madagascar’s land
would need to host solar PV genera-
tion in order to meet 100 per cent
of the country’s projected electricity
needs in 2050. This projection as-
sumes that those living in Madagas-
car are consuming the projected glob-
al average amount of electricity for
2050, which is more than 60 times
current per capita consumption.

Madagascar’s population is predomi-

nantly rural, with only 30 per cent of
the population estimated to live in
“urban” areas according to the UN
Environment Programme. This is
very encouraging for the development
of more distributed community scale
solar projects. As can be seen on the
basemap, the densest populations are
© First Solar. Ground mounted PV can provide distributed off- or on-grid electricity.

19
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV Atlas: MADHYA PRADESH, INDIA

Less than one per cent Situated in the middle of India, Madhya tuaries, the Tiger State is a pioneer state
Electric Sector Profile5
(0.75 per cent) of MP’s Pradesh is the second-largest Indian in the national movement for conserva-
land would need to host state by size. The state is home to more tion. The national parks and sanctuaries Installed
8.38 GW
solar PV generation in than 72.5 million people, over three- constitute 11.4 per cent of the total forest Capacity (2011)
order to meet 100 per quarters of whom live in rural areas.1 In area and 3.52 per cent of the geographi- Total Generation
cent of the state’s pro- 2011 Madhya Pradesh was responsible cal area of the state.4 (Apr. 2011- 49412.5 GWh
jected electricity needs for 3.29 per cent of India’s GDP, or Mar. 2012)
in 2050. US$52.3 billion. Inhabitants earned an State and national governments, as well Avg. Consumer
average annual income of 27,250 rupees as aid agencies, are investing in grid ex- Price of US$0.087/kWh*
or about US$528.2 Though 96.4 per cent tension and increased generation, much Electricity (2009)6
of villages in Madhya Pradesh were con- of which is planned as coal. Solar PV Electricity

MADHYA PRADESH
sidered electrified in 2009, the definition generation offers a more sustainable and Consumption/ 602.07 kWh
of an electrified village allows for up to ultimately more affordable option for capita (2009-10)7
90 per cent of the households to lack ac- these power expansion plans. Average electric-
cess to electricity.3 ity consumption/
9,200 kWh
capita in IEA
countries (2009)
Spanning what is considered a “genetic
highway” between the western coast’s Electricity Generation by Source
Ghat Mountains and the northeast, Coal (2011-12) 84 per cent
Madhya Pradesh features two mountain
Hydro-electric
ranges of its own and some of India’s 10 per cent
(2011-12)
richest biodiversity. The state has ap-
proximately 5,000 plant species of which Other 6 per cent

625 are medicinal flora. Tigers and other

endangered megafauna coexist with
*US$1=56.235 INR, May 30, 2012
more than 500 bird species and 180 fish
species. With four major forest types,
nine national parks and 25 wildlife sanc-

20
 Electricity Sector
Installed In 2011, Madhya Pradesh had a total not work on three-phase power, how- estimated an energy-saving potential of
RE
Source
capacity installed capacity of 8.4 GW. The state ever, so large agricultural pumping is not 500 MW. There are various demand-side
(2010) government manages and operates 4.5 supported. Also, due to location and/or initiatives under way and also initiatives
Biomass 32 MW GW, the central government 3.6 GW, density, 401 villages in Madhya Pradesh in industry clusters.10
Wind 210 MW while only 240 MW is owned by private are not covered by the RGGVY.
Solar 2 MW producers, most of which is in the renew- To promote renewable energy, the Mad-
able sector. In the future, the fuel-mix The government of Madhya Pradesh has hya Pradesh state Electricity Regulatory
ratio is most likely to change and become been promoting the development of RE Commission (MPERC) has set a target
even more coal heavy as many new coal- plants, including wind, through vari- of Renewable Purchase Obligations for
based thermal plants have been planned ous policy initiatives and incentives for distribution licensees at 6 per cent for
and there is an unlikely commensurate developers. It has also issued an Incen- wind, 2 per cent for biomass and 2 per

MADHYA PRADESH
increase in hydro capacity.8 The govern- tive Policy for encouraging generation of cent for cogeneration and other sources.
ment of Madhya Pradesh has launched power in Madhya Pradesh through Non- Together this will ensure that 10 per cent
preliminary legal documents for projects conventional Energy Sources (2006). In of the electricity production in Madhya
totaling about 55 GW of new capacity. Of 2010, Madhya Pradesh had an installed Pradesh comes from renewable resources
this, work has begun on 3 GW. About 35 capacity of about 210 MW of wind power, between 2011 and 2013.11
per cent of the total potential hydropow- about 32 MW of biomass based power
er (large and medium) assessed at 2.8 and about 2 MW of solar power. As the Wind power has made progress in the
GW is yet to be tapped while most of the assessed potential is significantly higher region, bolstered by the 2006 Incentive
small and micro-power is still in explor- (wind – about 800 MW, solar – about Policy. A total of 20 wind power projects
atory stages. 1.0 GW and biomass – about 250 MW), have been installed so far. Biogas too has
there are plans to expand the renewable been the focus of much recent activity.
There is scant data on actual house- power generation capacity in the state.9 Under the National Biogas and Manure
holds with access to electricity, but rates This is being done through the Madhya Management Programme, about 20,000
remain low. Intensive ongoing efforts Pradesh Urja Vikas Nigam (MPUVN), a biogas plants have been installed. The
continue to improve access to the grid government agency created to promote annual target for 2010 was 2,000 plants,
under the national Rajiv Gandhi Gramin renewable energy in the state. MPUVN 550 of which were installed by August.
Vidyutikaran Yojna (RGGVY) rural has also initiated work on promoting
electrification plan. The RGGVY does energy-efficiency in the state and has
21
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV
Protected Areas
Population
Density > 100/km2
Population
In 2010, Madhya Pradesh launched a Density > 1000/km2
Solar Energy Policy through which the
state intends to increase solar energy
production, enhance energy security,

POPULATION DENSITY
Land required for PV
promote efficient and cost-effective solar to meet 100 per cent of
installations through fiscal and non-fiscal electricity production
incentives, promote local manufactur- In the year 2010
ing and develop local capabilities. The
policy targets up to 500 MW of new solar In the year 2050
installations. Apart from this, under the
central government plan - Jawaharlal

MADHYA PRADESH
Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
- three 100 MW projects have been
registered in Madhya Pradesh and 17
more are planned, with 270 MW of new
capacity.

Most areas in Madhya Pradesh receive

sunlight for about 300 days in a year, Land required for PV
to meet 100 per cent of
and as can be seen on the solar map, electricity production
the conditions for solar PV are excellent
across the state. Though the climate and In the year 2010
SOLAR RESOURCE

weather patterns are strongly influenced

In the year 2050
by the monsoon cycles, the very good
solar irradiance overall makes PV an
attractive generation option. Overall,
average annual insolation for the state is
just below 5 kWh/m2/day. 2 4 6
2
8

kWh / m / day

22
 Two hundred ten (210) square kilo- Madhya Pradesh’s population is pre-
metres of solar panels would generate dominantly rural, with only 25 per
enough electricity to meet Madhya cent of the population estimated to
Pradesh’s total current electricity live in “urban” areas. This is generally
generation. Because both population very encouraging for the development
and per capita electricity consumption of distributed household-level solar
are expected to rise in the coming de- installations. However, as can be seen
cades, 2,320 square kilometres of land on the basemap, almost the entire state
dedicated to solar production would be has a population density greater than
required to meet 100 per cent of Mad- 100 people/km2 which points to the
hya Pradesh’s total electricity needs in complimentary value of community

MADHYA PRADESH
2050. Concentrated into one location, microgrids and larger-scale PV instal-
this land would represent a square of lations. The microgrids can aggregate
about 48 kilometres on each side. The demand where densities of households
solar map shows land needed for 2010 make this economic, and the larger-
generation (red square) as well as land scale PV installations can serve these
use needed to meet electricity demand aggregated loads along with irrigation
in 2050 (blue square). In other words, and commercial needs.
even based on very conservative esti-
mates, less than one per cent (0.75 per
cent) of Madhya Pradesh’s land would
need to host solar PV generation in
order to meet 100 per cent of the state’s
projected electricity needs in 2050.
This projection assumes that those liv-
ing in Madhya Pradesh are consuming
the global average amount of electricity,
which is more than five times current
© R.Isotti, A.Cambone - Homo Ambiens / WWF-Canon per capita consumption.
23
 Solar PV Atlas

MADHYA PRADESH
© Jean-Philippe Denruyter / Women assemble solar components at the Barefoot College in India. Local employment across the value chain is a benefit of solar PV development.

24
 Solar PV Atlas: MEXICO
Just over one-tenth of The federal republic of Mexico has a All of these policies have some elements
one per cent (0.11 per population of approximately 113.7 million to encourage renewable energy and
cent) of Mexico’s land people,1 47 per cent of whom live in pov- energy efficiency and to protect Mexico’s
would need to host solar erty.2 In 2010, the GDP per capita was natural environment.6
PV generation in order US$13,900.3 Ninety-nine per cent of the
to meet 100 per cent of inhabitants have access to electricity. Dividing the Pacific Ocean from the Gulf
the country’s projected of Mexico and serving as a land bridge
electricity needs in 2050. In energy, natural gas and fuel oil domi- between North and South America,
nate the country’s electricity generation Mexico is in the top five countries in the
mix. Mexico is one of the world’s largest world in terms of animal diversity, with
crude oil exporters, but it is a net import- 200,000 different species — ten to twelve
er of refined petroleum products. per cent of all species worldwide. With
subtropical, alpine, and desert climates,
Since 2005, Mexico’s energy demand Mexico is a hotspot for ecological rich-
has grown faster than GDP, yet there ness and fragility with a very high con-
has been a steep decline in domestic fuel centration of endemic species.
production. Mexican oil consumption
is still highly subsidized, with subsidies
for gasoline and diesel — for transpora-
tion and electricity — totaling more than
US$22 billion per year.4 The Mexican
government recognizes the toll this is
taking on its environment, fiscal health

MEXICO
and national security, and has developed
a number of policy frameworks aimed at
improving energy security, strengthen-
ing energy production, and contributing
to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.5

25
 Solar PV Atlas

Electricity sector
Since the 1990s the Mexican government able energies was established by the Mexi- nuclear energy and RE including large
has allowed the privatization of power can government and the Mexican Congress hydro by 2024. It also set the interim goal
plants, but the electricity market is still approved a set of energy-related laws and of 7.6 per cent of installed capacity for RE
limited for private power producers. The reforms. The programme sets three main excluding large hydropower plants.
state-run electric utility (CFE) creates bar- goals for renewable energy to be achieved
riers to entry for private producers in order by 2012: (1) more than double the installed Currently, wind energy is the only RE
to control most of the country’s electricity capacity of renewable energy sources, from technology growing rapidly in Mexico. An
generation and transmission. Just over 3.3 per cent to 7.6 per cent of total installed energy transition to diversified RE and less
12 GW of installed capacity belongs to 22 capacity; (2) increase renewable energy dependence on fossil fuels is not yet hap-
private companies, the rest to CFE.7 Elec- generation from 3.9 per cent to 6.6 per pening. Because of ambiguities in federal
tricity is a growing market in Mexico, with cent; and (3) use renewable energy to elec- law, the state-run electric utility (CFE) –
the Ministry of Energy predicting demand trify 2,500 off-grid communities. Yet, this which controls the majority of the electric-
growth of 3.3 per cent per year for the next programme seemed to be less than a firm ity sector in Mexico and is one of the most
10 years. commitment for renewable energy expan- important players for the development of
sion, since no comprehensive implementa- renewable energies – is constrained. The
Mexico’s electricity mix relies heavily on tion and financial schemes have been put in law states that power production by CFE
fossil fuels. Natural gas is the dominant place. must be selected at the lowest cost, taking
source of electricity generation, and heavy into consideration environmental external-
fuel oil and coal also have a large share. The National Energy Strategy (ENE) was ities for each technology, and it must offer
Hydropower and a small amount of nuclear created in 2010 as a legal framework for optimum stability, quality and safety of the
power complete the mix. Though hydro- achieving the energy sector’s main objec- public service. Although the law takes into
power and geothermal development seem tives — security, efficiency and sustain- account the valuation of externalities, there
stagnant, other RE generation is undergo- ability — over a 15-year time horizon. is no approved methodology to quantify

MEXICO
ing modest growth. There is huge growth Subsequent ENEs have been created but these externalities. As a result, externalities
potential for RE, and Mexican policies are not ratified, so the 2010 strategy remains are generally not considered, and tradi-
seeking to tap at least part of this potential. in effect. That ENE called for 35 per cent of tional fossil fuel projects continue to move
In 2008 a special programme for renew- electricity generation capacity to be from foreward.

26
 Nevertheless, in 2012, Mexico passed
Electric Sector Profile
landmark legislation capping green
Installed Capacity (2011)8 51.177 GW house gas emissions. With a programme
Total net generation (2010) 238,308 GWh established in 2008 to promote renew-
Average Residential able energy development and the new
US$0.10/kWh
Electricity Price (2010) climate law, Mexico’s renewable energy
Electricity consumption marketplace is poised for expansion.
1,943 kWh
per capita (2009)
Average electricity con-
sumption/capita in IEA 9,200 kWh
countries (2009)

Electricity Generation Mix (2011)

Gas 42.6 per cent

Heavy Fuel Oil 21.6 per cent
Hydro (all sizes) 13.5 per cent
Coal 14 per cent
Nuclear 4.8 per cent
Geothermal/Wind 3 per cent
Diesel 0.5 per cent

Installed capacity
RE Source
(2011)
Mini Hydro 376.5 MW

MEXICO
Geothermal 964.5 MW
Biomass 475 MW
Wind 873 MW
Solar 28 MW
© Stéfane Mauris / WWF-Canon

27
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV
Most of Mexico consists of highlands, A total of 950 square kilometres of solar
with the mountain ranges to the east and panels would generate enough electricity
west dropping steeply to small coastal to meet Mexico’s total current electricity
plains. The most dominant topographical generation. Because population and per
feature of the country is the inner high- capita electricity consumption are ex-
lands which cover half of the total area pected to rise in the coming years, 2,200
of the country. While the entire country square kilometres of land dedicated to
enjoys high levels of insolation, the Sierra solar production would be required to
Madre Oriental range and the areas to its meet to meet 100 per cent of Mexico’s
west hold particularly strong potential total electricity needs in 2050. Concen-
for solar development. trated into one location, this land would
represent a square of about 47 kilometres
As of 2010, Mexico’s total installed PV on each side. The solar map shows land
capacity was 26 MW. In addition to the needed for 2010 generation (red square)
distributed solar around the country, as well as land use needed to meet elec-
notable sites are the CFE-operated 1 MW tricity demand in 2050 (blue square).
site in Santa Rosalía, B.C. and the 5 MW
project it is building in Cerro Prieto, BC.
ABB is building a 1.2 MW project in San
Luis Potosí. Though PV installations thus
far have been small, plans for a 450MW
concentrated photovoltaic plant in Baja
California were announced in March

MEXICO
2012, with 50 MW planned to come on-
line in 2013.

28
 POPULATION DENSITY SOLAR RESOURCE

Land required for PV to meet 100 Land required for PV to meet 100
per cent of electricity production per cent of electricity production

In the year 2010 In the year 2010

In the year 2050 In the year 2050

Protected Areas
Population Density > 100/km2
Population Density > 1000/km2 2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day

In other words, even based on very conservative

estimates, just over one-tenth of one per cent
(0.11 per cent) of Mexico’s land would need to

MEXICO
host solar PV generation in order to meet 100
per cent of the country’s projected electricity
needs in 2050.

29
 Solar PV Atlas

MOROCCO
Solar PV Atlas: MOROCCO
Less than one-fifth of Located on the northwest coast of North While 97 per cent of Moroccans have access
one per cent (0.17 per Africa, the Kingdom of Morocco is a con- to electricity,3 it is important to note that fuel
cent) of Morocco’s land stitutional monarchy with a population of for cooking presents enormous challenges
would need to host approximately 32 million people. In 2010, in Morocco. The harvesting of firewood for
solar PV generation in the GDP per capita of Morocco reached cooking is contributing to tens of thousands
order to meet 100 per US$2,798, slightly higher than that of North of hectares of deforestation.4 Electrification
cent of the country’s Africa overall.1 of cooking and transportation would place
projected electricity additional demands on the current grid, but
needs in 2050. Morocco is the largest energy importer in grid planners should consider the effects of
northern Africa, importing 97 per cent of integrating these sectors in the future.
its energy.2 This heavy energy dependence
makes the country particularly vulnerable Morocco fronts both the Atlantic Ocean and
to price fluctuations and supply disruptions. Mediterranean Sea, bordering their junc-
In 2008, total costs related to energy im- ture at the Strait of Gibraltar. Its climate is
ports reached US$8 billion. Costs for energy largely Mediterranean, though its interior
imports have been rising for years and the is drier and more desert like. Large coastal
Moroccan government has subsidized fuel plains and plateaus edge the mountainous
prices with more than US$2 billion in order northern coast and interior. There are more
to keep Moroccan purchasing power from than 32,000 species of flora and fauna in
plummeting. Funding these subsidies for fos- Morocco – of which 14 per cent are endemic
sil fuels posed a significant strain on the na- – the second highest concentration of ter-
tional budget, especially with primary energy restrial species and highest concentration of
demand predicted to treble by 2030. marine species in the Mediterranean basin.5

30
 MOROCCO
Electricity Sector
With growth in both population and socio- The state-owned Office National de In 2009, the government launched a sweep-
economics, Morocco is experiencing rapid l’Electricité (ONE) is the primary player in ing energy reform aimed at addressing rising
growth in electricity demand. Electricity generation, transmission, and distribution of costs of imported energy, to ensure reliable
demand is trending at a 7 per cent annual grid electricity. Through reforms the ONE has supply, and to expand access to electricity by
growth rate and is predicted to quadruple encouraged partial privatization, primarily encouraging renewable energy development.
between 2008 and 2030. It imports both in generation. Independent Power Producers In an effort to support Morocco’s growth with
fuel for electricity generation and more than can also conclude Power Purchase Agree- secure and sustainable energy, the reform
3,400 GWh of electricity directly through grid ments with industrial off-takers connected called for a diversification of generation tech-
interconnections with Spain and Algeria. on the ONE High Voltage network. Morocco nologies. The country’s current renewable
can benefit from deals with its gas-exporting energy target is 42 per cent of total electricity
neighbour, Algeria. For instance, since the generation by 2020. It plans 1.72 GW of wind
Electric Sector Profile mid 1990s, a natural gas pipeline has led power and 2 GW of solar power, on top of 2.6
from the Algerian Hassi R’Mel gas field GW of new hydropower.6
Installed Capacity (2010) 6.3 GW
through Morocco to Spain. Through royalties
Electricity Production (2010) 22,531 GWh
earned from this passage, Morocco has been Installed Capacity
Residential Electricity Price US$0.10- RE Source
(2010) 0.16/kWh
able to tap into the pipeline for some of its (2010)7

Electricity consumption/capita
own electricity generation. Large Hydro 1.27 GW
756 kWh
(2009) Solar PV 10 MW
Average electricity consump- At the same time it is important for Morocco Solar Thermal Electric 20 MW
tion/capita in IEA countries 9,200 kWh to reduce its dependency on energy imports. Wind 291 MW
(2009) The country seeks to take advantage of its
Electricity Generation Mix (2010) local coal resources, but is also investing
in more promising and sustainable energy
Heavy fuel oil 24 per cent sources, like solar and wind energy. A high
Coal 34 per cent share of electricity is already coming from
Natural gas 7 per cent hydropower, resulting in pumped storage as-
Hydro 33 per cent pects of its grid that could be used to balance
Wind 2 per cent renewable generation with variable outputs.

31
 Solar PV Atlas

MOROCCO
POPULATION DENSITY
Solar PV
Land required for PV to meet 100
per cent of electricity production
This map includes only the biodiversity data
In the year 2010
available through global data sets. Additional
In the year 2050 biodiversity information on protected areas in
As a result of rural electrification pro-
Morocco is available at www.eauxetforets.gov.
grammes, photovoltaic solar energy has ma/fr/index.aspx (biodiversité) and
a relatively well-established presence http://ma.chm-cbd.net/manag_cons/esp_prot/
in Morroco’s countryside. At the end of stat_int_ma/ramsar_site_ma
2007, 44,719 households were equipped
with solar home systems. A different Land required for PV
government-run pilot programme, the
Chourouk programme, will install 1,400
to meet 100 per cent of
electricity production
SOLAR RESOURCE
micro PV power stations of 0.5-1 kW in In the year 2010
the regions of d’Errachidia, Benguerir
and Ouarzazate. These PV stations will be In the year 2050
connected to the low voltage grid. While
the rural electrification programmes con-
tinue, current discussion of solar often
focuses on large-scale solar, both photo-
voltaic and concentrated solar power that 2
725 km
could provide utility-scale inputs to the
grid.8
2
4897 km

Protected Areas
In November 2009, the King announced
Population Density > 100/km2
the Moroccan Solar Plan, a 2.0 GW solar
Population Density > 1000/km2
target by 2020. In March 2010 the coun-
try established the Moroccan Agency for
Solar Energy (MASEN) to implement the
2.o GW mandate.

Morocco has recently upgraded the grid

connection to Spain, and is actively 2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day

32
 MOROCCO
engaged in discussions aimed at channel- of about 28 kilometres on each side. The
ing solar power into Europe from North solar map shows land needed for 2010
Africa. Over time, renewable electricity generation (red square), as well as land
trade between North Africa and Europe use needed to meet electricity demand in
could help both regions to progress 2050 (blue square).
towards WWF’s vision of 100 per cent
renewable energy and enable the devel- In other words, even based on very con-
opment of a “super smart grid.” servative estimates, less than one-fifth of
one per cent (0.17 per cent) of Morocco’s
With more than 2,500 hours of annual land would need to host solar PV genera-
sunshine, Morocco has an exceptionally tion in order to meet 100 per cent of the
good solar resource. As can be seen on country’s projected electricity needs in
the solar map, the solar resource over the 2050.
entire land area of Morocco is excellent
with the exception of a few tiny areas on
the Mediterranean coast.

A total of 120 square kilometres of solar

panels would generate enough electricity
to meet Morocco’s total current electric-
ity generation. Because population and
per capita electricity consumption are © Martin Harvey / WWF-Canon

expected to rise in the coming years, 760

square kilometres of land dedicated to so-
lar production would be required to meet
100 per cent of Morocco’s total electricity
needs in 2050. Concentrated into one lo-
cation, this land would represent a square

33
 Solar PV Atlas

Solar PV Atlas: SOUTH AFRICA

Less than one-tenth of The Republic of South Africa is a coun- tions and unique topography. Most of the
one per cent (0.09 per try of approximately 50.6 million people country is situated on a high-lying pla-
cent) of South Africa’s (2011).1 In 2010, approximately 62 per teau, between two very different oceans:

SOUTH AFRICA
land would need to host cent of the population lived in urban the Atlantic and the Indian.
solar PV generation in areas,2 and the country’s GDP per capita
order to meet 100 per was US$10,280.3 About 75 per cent of Habitat destruction, pollution, invasive
cent of the country’s South Africans have access to electricity. species, and climate change are currently
projected electricity threatening South Africa’s flora and
needs in 2050. The South African energy supply is domi- fauna. More than 2,000 of the nation’s
nated by coal, with 65.7 per cent of the plants are threatened. The government
primary energy supply, followed by crude is trying to counteract this decline in
oil with 21.6 per cent, renewable and biodiversity with several programmes but
wastes with 7.6 per cent and gas with progress has been slow. A rapid develop-
2.8 per cent. South Africa is a large coal ment of renewable energy in the country
producer, with proven coal reserves of 48 would contribute to the world’s fight
gigatonnes, representing 5.7 per cent of against climate change and could miti-
total global reserves.4 gate some of the local threats to habitat
by reducing local pollution and destruc-
South Africa is the third-most biologi- tive land use practices.
cally diverse country in the world. With
a land surface area equivalent to just 1
per cent of the Earth’s total land surface,
South Africa has almost 10 per cent of
the world’s known bird, fish, and plant
species and more than 6 per cent of the
Earth’s mammal and reptile species.
South Africa’s incredible biodiversity is
due to its wide range of climatic condi-
© Michel Terrettaz / WWF-Canon

34
 Electricity sector
According to its national Department of to the government’s new Integrated Re-
Electric Sector Profile
Energy, South Africa supplies two-thirds source Plan (IRP), local installed capacity
of Africa’s electricity and is one of the must increase to supply 454,000 GWh Installed Capacity (2008) 44.1 GW

SOUTH AFRICA
four cheapest electricity producers in the by 2030 with a Policy-Adjusted 2010 IRP Total Net Generation (2009) 246,800 GWh
world. Yet one quarter of South Africans installed capacity for 2030 of 89.5 GW. Average Residential US$0.062/
have no access to the grid and instead rely The IRP also commits to reducing water Electricity Price (2010) kWh
on candles and kerosene for lighting.5 use and carbon dioxide emissions (275 Electricity
4,600 MWh
consumption/capita
million tons of carbon dioxide annually
Eskom, the state-owned utility, domi- after 2024). Average electricity con-
sumption/capita in IEA 9,200 kWh
nates electricity generation, supplying countries (2009)
about 95 per cent of South Africa’s elec- Despite the IRP’s commitment to renew-
tricity. While Eskom does not have exclu- able energy, unsustainable energy sources Electricity Generation Mix (2010)
sive generation rights, practically speak- such as coal or nuclear would still be the Coal 90 per cent
ing it has a monopoly on bulk electricity major source of power in South Africa Nuclear 5 per cent
as it owns and operates the national in 2030. Coal would lead with 65 per Hydropower 5 per cent
electricity grid. More than 90 per cent of cent of electricity production. Nuclear
all electricity generated by Eskom comes power would emerge as the second largest
from South Africa’s indigenous coal source, increasing its share of electricity
supplies. production from 5 per cent to 20 per cent. RE Source Installed capacity
Renewables would come third, producing
Hydro 2.1 GW
In 2008 South Africa experienced roll- 9 per cent of electricity.6
ing blackouts. Since then it has managed Wind 22 MW
to avoid further blackouts, but there are The need for alternative sources of energy Solar PV 6 MW
predictions that demand will exceed sup- in South Africa is critical, and not only to
ply by 9 TWh by the end of 2012. In order meet the growing electricity demand. Re-
to avoid further disruptions, the govern- liance on coal-fired power has resulted in
ment has introduced a series of measures South Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions
to boost electricity production. According being double the global per capita average.

35
 Solar PV Atlas

Along with emitting large amounts of In December 2011, South African Presi-
carbon dioxide, coal-fired plants use dent Jacob Zuma announced another
significant amounts of water – net water initiative to promote the development

SOUTH AFRICA
consumption was 327,252 million litres of renewable energy generation and
in 2011, the highest level since 2007.7 industrial development in South Africa:
In addition to contributing to South Af- The South African Renewable Initia-
rica’s goal of reducing carbon emissions tive (SARi). SARi will provide low cost
by 42 per cent by 2025,8 renewable en- loans and other financial instruments
ergy sources can help tackle unemploy- combined with time-limited pay-for-
ment, one of South Africa’s most serious performance grants to large-scale
and persistent socioeconomic issues.9 renewable developments. Although the
A green economy could create jobs by South African government initiated
ramping-up the existing manufactur- SARi, it is funded through a partnership
ing capacity to meet the region’s grow- agreement between the United States
ing demand for alternative low-carbon Department of Energy, the European
energy sources. Investment Bank and the governments
of the UK, Germany, Denmark, Switzer-
Pretoria has adopted several measures land and Norway.11
that indicate that it is serious about
developing renewables. In November
2011, the government released the Na-
tional Development Plan (NDP) – Vi-
sion for 2030. This advisory document
dedicated a whole chapter to transition-
ing to a low-carbon economy. The plan
envisions material investments into
low-carbon infrastructure by 2030,
backed by international financial aid.10
© First Solar. Rooftop PV applications like these could provide
significant generation for urban areas in South Africa.
36
 Solar PV
With an average of more than 2,500 hours is projected to rise slightly in the coming The energy profile published in South Afri-
of sunshine every year, South Africa has years, but if South Africa adopts efficiency ca’s 1st National Communication under the
one of the highest and most stable solar measures that would bring it in line with United Nations Framework Convention on

SOUTH AFRICA
radiation levels in the world. Yet solar WWF’s projected global per capita averag- Climate Change13 notes that although coal
power generation has remained largely es, it could see both universal electrification is by far the largest non-renewable energy
untapped. Nevertheless, in December 2011, and a slightly lower per-capita electricity resource with an impressive energy reserve
Taiwan’s AUO Optronics announced along demand by 2050. With those assump- of 1,298,000 PJ, it is almost insignificant in
with Eskom that they had completed a 1.2 tions, the area of land required to meet 100 comparison to the country’s largest renew-
MW PV project, the first system of its kind per cent of South Africa’s total electricity able energy resource, namely solar with
in the country. President Zuma officially needs in 2050, using today’s PV technol- an energy reserve of 8,500,000 PJ/year.
launched the facility, which is expected to ogy, stays about the same – 1,110 square Thus, the total coal reserve is only equal
supply electricity and jobs to the eThekWini kilometres. Concentrated into one location, to around 15 per cent of the solar resource
municipality.12 this land would represent a square of about that is available to South Africa every year.
33 kilometres on each side. The solar map
As can be seen on the solar map, the condi- shows land needed for 2010 generation
tions for solar PV are excellent across the (red square), as well as land use needed
country. The effects of the coast and the to meet electricity demand in 2050 (blue
mountains result in a small reduction in square). In other words, less than one-tenth
solar irradiance along the country’s south- of one per cent (0.09 per cent) of South
ern and eastern edges. Solar PV can greatly Africa’s land would need to host solar PV
contribute to the country’s energy mix generation in order to meet 100 per cent of
through decentralized access to electricity the country’s projected electricity needs in
as well as large-scale PV power stations. 2050. If, conversely, South Africa contin-
ued to expand generation capacity as per
A total of 1,130 square kilometres of solar the 2010 IRP, to double by 2030, the “100%
PV installation would generate enough solar square” represented on the map for
electricity to meet South Africa’s total 2050 would be larger but still remarkably
current electricity generation. Population modest.

37
 Solar PV Atlas

POPULATION DENSITY SOLAR RESOURCE

SOUTH AFRICA
Land required for PV Land required for PV
to meet 100 per cent of to meet 100 per cent of
electricity production electricity production
In the year 2010 In the year 2010
In the year 2050 In the year 2050
In the year 2030* In the year 2030*
*per the policy goals set for *per the policy goals set for 2030
2030 by the IRP by the IRP
Protected Areas
Population Density > 100/km2
Population Density > 1000/km2 2 4 6 8
2
kWh / m / day

38
 Solar PV Atlas: TURKEY
Less than one quarter The Republic of Turkey has a population Turkey sits at the junction of Europe, Asia
of one per cent (0.21 per of 74.7 million people (2011), 77 per cent and Africa and is a part of three differ-
cent) of Turkey’s land of which live in urban areas. In 2010, the ent bio-geographical regions. Thanks to
would need to host solar country’s GDP per capita was US$10,067,1 its diverse ecosystems and topographic,
PV generation in order after growing 9 per cent from 2009. Most geologic, geomorphologic and soil variety,
to meet 100 per cent of people have access to electricity but with Turkey is rich in fauna and flora, hosting
Turkey’s projected elec- a high rate of losses and illegal consump- 132 mammal, 456 bird, 10,000 plant, 125
tricity needs in 2050. tion at 15 per cent. reptile and amphibian, 364 butterfly and
405 fish species.
Turkey has experienced rapid growth in
energy demand in recent years that is Environmental conservation in Turkey
likely to continue in the medium- to long- has historically followed an inconsistent
term.2 The government is trying to avoid path. As suggested by the unbridgeable

TURKEY
bottlenecks in supply and sustain the gap between legislation and enforcement
country’s fast economic growth by open- and the recent regressive changes pro-
ing its markets to outside investment. It is posed for conservation legislation, con-
also committed to expanding energy pro- servation is not advancing. Unfortunately,
duction capacity while reducing depen- current energy policies add additional
dence on imported energy sources, which pressure on the environment, whether
stood at 71 per cent in 2011. through greenhouse gas emissions, coal
mining, nuclear plants or poorly planned
Though Turkey stands as a global leader hydropower projects.
in solar water heating, with an installed
capacity second only to China’s, Turkey’s
electricity sector remains largely fossil
fuel dependent. Demand for energy has
grown substantially in recent years, par-
ticularly in the power sector.
© Gokham Tan

39
 Solar PV Atlas

Electricity sector
Between 2000 and 2009, Turkey’s elec- building more nuclear and renewable ca-
Electric Sector Profile (2011)
tricity demand grew 55.3 per cent, com- pacity.6 A target of 30 per cent renewable
pared to 6.9 per cent in OECD countries electricity by 2023 was announced. Installed Capacity 52.458 MW
and 22 per cent in the world.3 To meet Total Net Generation 211,000 GWh
this demand, government has ramped-up Following the law’s approval, Turkey 0.258 TL/kWh
Residential Electricity Price
annual electricity generation to 211,ooo experienced a boom in wind power. $US0.14/kWh
GWh, a four-fold increase over the past Installed capacity for wind energy, which Electricity consumption/
2,791 kWh
capita
25 years. In its efforts to meet the rapid was almost absent in 2002, reached
demand increase, Turkey has favoured 1.799 GW in 2011. In the same period, Average electricity con-
sumption/capita in IEA 9,200 kWh
thermoelectric power plants, and as a the geothermal installed capacity grew countries (2009)
result natural gas has become the main from under 20MW to 94.2 MW.
energy source in electricity generation.4 Electricity Generation Mix (2009)

Natural gas 43.8 per cent

TURKEY
Turkey’s growing dependence on fossil Coal 26.6 per cent
fuels has resulted in a dramatic increase
Hydropower 24 per cent
in import dependence, as almost all of
Wind, geothermal, + other
the natural gas and one-third of the coal RE
2.5 per cent
used to produce electricity has to be Other 3.1 per cent
imported.5 Concerned with the impact
of this dependence on its energy security RE source Installed Capacity (2011)
and finances, the government introduced Hydro 17.036 GW
several measures to improve energy ef-
Wind 1.799 GW
ficiency, increase diversification while
Geothermal 94 MW
reducing carbon emissions. In the 2009
Solar PV 1 MW
“Electricity Energy Market and Supply
Security Strategy Paper,” the government
announced its electricity generation goals
for 2023 as reducing natural gas while
© Sedat Kalem / WWF-Turkey

40
 Solar PV
Presently there is a small solar photo- possible participation in the European 1,600 square kilometres of land dedicat-
voltaic market in Turkey. This market Electricity Market, following the 2009 ed to solar production would be required
emerged when commercial companies synchronization between the Turkish to meet 100 per cent of Turkey’s total
– shopping malls, factories, hospitals power system and the interconnected electricity needs in 2050. Concentrated
– and several homeowners decided to power systems of continental Europe. into one location, this land would rep-
reduce their electricity costs by installing Turkey is also expected to play an im- resent a square of about 40 kilometres
solar panels for their own energy pro- portant role in cross-border renewable on each side. The solar map shows
duction. As of 2010, official figures rate projects “Desertec”7 and “Mediterranean land needed for 2010 generation (red
solar PV at one megawatt of installed Solar Plan,”8 both as a solar energy sup- square), as well as land use needed to
capacity. plier and a bridge between the Middle meet electricity demand in 2050 (blue
East and Europe. square). In other words, even based on
Despite adoption by a small segment very conservative estimates, less than
of the population, solar power is still a Most of Turkey’s southern half has an- one quarter of one per cent (0.21 per

TURKEY
nominal source of electricity. Recently, nual insolation values above 5.0 kWh/ cent) of Turkey’s land would need to
the government approved an amend- m2/day. Istanbul, due to the effects of host solar PV generation in order to
ment to the Renewable Energy Law the Black Sea, is less sunny with about meet 100 per cent of Turkey’s projected
which was in part designed to increase 4.1 kWh/m2/day. Solar development electricity needs in 2050.
the generating capacity of solar power. along the Aegean and Mediterranean
Reactions to this amendment have been coasts appears to present the best op-
mixed as the proposed feed-in tariff is portunity for aligning population centres
capped at 10 years, too short a time to and large PV plants.
finance projects with traditional capital
markets. Additionally, clear regulations A total of 790 kilometres of solar pan-
are needed to allow solar power to be els would generate enough electricity
connected to the grid. to meet Turkey’s total current electric-
ity generation. Because population and
Potential investors in Turkey’s solar per capita electricity consumption are
energy sector are attracted by Turkey’s expected to rise in the coming decades,

41
 Solar PV Atlas

Land required for PV to meet 100

per cent of electricity production

In the year 2010 Protected Areas

In the year 2050 Population Density > 100/km2
Population Density > 1000/km2

This map includes only the bio-

diversity data available through
global data sets. Additional biodi-
versity information for Turkey is
available through the Ministry of
POPULATION DENSITY

Forestry and Water Affairs at:

http://geodata.ormansu.gov.tr/3d/
indexv5.aspx

2 4 6 8
2

TURKEY
kWh / m / day
Land required for PV
In the year 2010
to meet 100 per cent of
electricity production In the year 2050
SOLAR RESOURCE

42
 Electricity consumption in 2050 – Efficiency and Electrification
A fully sustainable In one city, halogen lights shine brightly in
renewable energy unoccupied offices. In another, people are liter-
power supply is ally sitting in the dark. Electricity consumption
the only way we levels of much of the world today are unsustain-
can secure energy able: 1.3 billion people completely lack access to
for all and avoid electricity, while electricity generation to sup-
environmental port consumption levels in much of the world is
catastrophe. already straining human health and the envi-
ronment. A fully sustainable renewable energy
supply is the only way we can secure energy for
all and avoid environmental catastrophe. As we
contemplate this shift to renewable energy and
universal access, all plausible scenarios point to
energy efficiency as the first and finest “fuel.” To
meet global electricity demands in 2050, fewer
joules will be providing more energy services.
This is why global energy supply decreases by Figure 3: Global ELECTRICITY Supply
2050 in the Ecofys scenario, despite the project- Ecofys sees a dramatic increase in renewable electricity, completely
ed population increase and expansion of energy displacing the need for fossil and nuclear based electricity by 2050.
services (see Figure 1, page 9.) Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010.

While global energy consumption is projected to

fall, electricity consumption is projected to dou-
ble by 2050, as a result of electrification trends
in transportation, heating and other sectors. Use
of renewable sources allows the global share of
electricity supply to increase drastically by 2050
while fossil and nuclear fuels are phased out.

43
 Solar PV Atlas

Access and Equity

The Ecofys Scenario makes no mention of how As the graph below illustrates, projected per capi- fully assess the real cost effectiveness of deep effi-
the global electricity supply will be distributed ta electricity consumption for 2050 falls far below ciency and renewable energy development to meet
among countries. To reach per capita electricity current levels of consumption in the EU and US these needs. Indeed, the areas of least access are
consumption in 2050 for the various regions in and also slightly below current levels in South often the areas of greatest potential for thought-
this atlas, we make the bold assumption that there Africa. It exceeds current levels of consumption ful development. Much as mobile telephony saw
will be energy equality across borders. In this UN in the other six selected regions. It is important explosive growth in areas where copper phone
“Year of Sustainable Energy for All”, we assert to note that in many of the selected regions much wires did not exist, so too can sustainable energy
optimistically that through efficiency, innovation, of the population is living without any electric- systems leapfrog traditional electricity systems
and responsible deployment of existing technolo- ity. The per capita consumption data are thus low in areas with little incumbent energy technology.
gies, we can and will build sustainable energy for these regions not because of energy efficient These innovations spill across borders, and, as we
systems that both eradicate energy poverty and economies but because of energy poverty. have seen in sectors from agriculture to telecom-
protect economic and environmental prosperity. Expanding access to electricity is critical, and in munications, “South-to-North” technology trans-
expanding access careful decision makers must fer can transform established systems.

Figure 4: 2050 Global and current regional per capita

electricity consumption.
This atlas calculates solar needs based on levelized global per capita
energy consumption in 2050. Given current trends, this atlas very likely
overestimate future per capita electricity consumption in many of the
focus regions, while it may slightly underestimate future electricity con-
sumption in heavily industrialized countries such as South Africa.
Sources: 2050 global - Ecofys Scenario 2010, World Bank and
Government of India.

44
 Electricity in Harmony with Nature: Photovoltaics
Solar energy is the most abundant energy resource PV generation installed directly at the site of Providing power, growing food
on Earth. The solar energy that hits the Earth’s sur- electricity consumption can alleviate grid conges- and protecting biodiversity
face in one hour is about the same as the amount of tion and defer or eliminate the expense of upgrad-
energy consumed by all human activities in a year. ing grid infrastructure. Utility-scale systems can Solar PV is socioeconomically one of the most
PV systems directly convert solar energy into elec- leverage economies of scale and optimal siting to benign energy technologies that exist today. Im-
tricity. Other solar technologies harness the sun’s achieve low levelized costs of energy (LCOE). Off- pacts on the local environment are relatively low
energy through concentrating solar power (CSP) grid and mini-grid applications bring reliable elec- or even positive;2 energy pay-back time is short;
and with solar thermal collectors for heating and tricity to areas previously underserved or served greenhouse gas emissions are close to zero when
cooling (SHC). with expensive diesel supply. These different ap- measured over their entire life-time; and socially,
plications have different system costs and compete solar PV creates jobs in manufacturing, develop-
PV is a versatile technology. Systems can be con- at different price levels. ment, construction, installation and operation of
nected to the utility grid, to mini-grids or operated roof-top solar and solar parks. PV is also a crucial
in stand-alone applications. They can be used in Today, PV provides 0.1 per cent of total global elec- technology to provide a reliable access to electricity
building-integrated systems (BIPV) or be ground- tricity generation.1 However, PV has seen an aver- to the many people living in remote areas without
mounted, for example, in large-scale electricity age annual growth rate of more than 40 per cent access to a grid.
production facilities. since 2000. Now a well-established commercially
available and reliable technology, it has significant Policy makers and land planners must constantly
There are four end-use sectors with distinct potential for long-term growth in nearly all world balance land use and conservation. We need land
markets for PV: regions now and in the coming decades. for buildings and other infrastructure, to grow food
• Residential systems (typically up to 20 kW and fibres and raise livestock, we need forests for
systems on individual buildings/dwellings). Grid parity is already a reality for solar PV in some timber and paper, and seas for food and leisure,
• Commercial systems (typically up to 1 MW applications and markets. Nevertheless, the reali- and we also need to leave space for nature. We
systems for commercial office buildings, ties of explicit and structural subsidies for fossil need healthy ecosystems to provide clean air and
schools, hospitals, and retail). fuels and nuclear energy mean that achieving high water, regulate our climate, keep our soils and seas
• Utility scale systems (starting at 1 MW, typi- levels of PV electricity supply cost-effectively – productive, prevent flooding, and more. To build
cally ground-mounted). and the associated, environmental, economic and sustainable electricity systems over the coming
• Off-grid applications (varying sizes). societal benefits – will require concerted policy decades we will need to develop an extensive re-
support.

45
 Solar PV Atlas

newable energy infrastructure, and making the right

choices on technologies and land use will be crucial.

It is in this context that there is growing public

attention on how solar parks affect both climate
change and biodiversity. Although the land use for
solar parks is minimal compared to other uses, the
solar sector must also evaluate and manage any neg-
ative impacts of its activities on the environment.

Overall, research has consistently found that when

developed responsibly, ground-mounted solar PV
power plants provide considerable environmental
benefits. Replacing existing grid electricity with PV
arrays reduces emissions of greenhouse gases, crite-
ria pollutants, heavy metals, and radioactive species
by at least 89 per cent3 and also significantly reduces
water withdrawal and consumption.4
Figure 5: Solar PV Impacts Relative to Traditional U.S. Power Generation
A 2009 study of PV solar generation environmental Source: Turney and Fthenakis, 2011.
impacts found that, “Solar technology is concluded
to be much preferable to traditional means of
power generation, even considering wildlife and
land use impacts”. From the 32 environmental
impact categories the researchers identified for solar
power plants, they found that 22 were beneficial
relative to traditional power generation, 4 were neu-
tral, none were detrimental, and 6 needed further
research.5
46
 All large-scale energy infrastructure developments planned, constructed and operated, and sensitive In 2011, CLER, a French umbrella NGO promot-
must as a minimum ensure legal compliance, pass areas are properly protected or avoided. According ing renewable energies, developed a position paper
environmental impact assessments, meet envi- to the report, several solar parks have even shown “Solar Parks, Yes, But Not at All Costs”7 and later
ronmental and social criteria and engage local an increase of biodiversity, especially in areas that launched a guide for responsible solar parks that is
stakeholders. The Gold Standard for best practice were previously sealed, used for intensive agricul- in line with the NABU/BSW guidance and with the
in projects delivering carbon credits, including a ture or former military fields. The report also de- AEE report’s best practices list.8
“do not harm” sustainability assessment and lo- scribes good practices and gives recommendations
cal stakeholder consultation guidelines, provides on planning and management of solar parks: These reports, guidelines and policies contribute to
a good example.6 In the hydropower sector, the a balanced debate on the development and accep-
International Hydropower Association developed a • Dedicated buffer areas in solar parks can grow tance of solar parks and the promotion of renew-
sustainability protocol together with key stakehold- into important biotopes for endangered species. able and solar energy globally. PV solar players,
ers including WWF. For biofuels, there is a Round- • Environmental impact assessments need to project developers and other key stakeholders
table of Sustainable Biofuels–in which WWF has consider specific local conditions and propose should consider launching a multi-stakeholder
participated since the initiative’s launch. relevant compensatory measures. initiative in this area and agree on sector-wide
• It is important to involve (local) experts for guidelines for responsible land management to
No such industry standard yet exists for solar PV ecologically sound project planning. be applied globally. The International Energy
development, but developers, policy makers and • Soil sealing needs to be avoided to the extent Agency’s Very Large-scale PV Systems Task 8 is
environmental groups are active in this field and possible - sealing should usually not exceed 1 currently looking at impacts and best practices, and
developing guidelines and best practices. In 2005, per cent of the total surface. could play a role in this process. A summary table
German NGO NABU and Solar Association BSW is- • Species selection for post-construction replant- of impact categories that can be considered when
sued the first guidelines for solar PV. A 2010 report ing within the solar park should preserve local planning, developing, constructing and operating a
by the German Renewable Energies Agency sum- genetic diversity. large-scale PV facility is included as Annex 2.
marizes the results of an assessment of eight solar • Minimizing closed areas and creating passage-
parks, looking at several years’ worth of monitoring ways for animals reduces negative effects of Another often-raised concern, soon mandated in
data and best practices. The report concludes that fencing for animals. the EU, relates to the take-back and recycling of
using land for PV development, climate protection • Continuous monitoring is essential to gather end-of-life (EOL) PV modules. As a way to improve
and environmental protection can happen simulta- useful information for future improvements. the green footprint of all PV companies, take back
neously provided that solar plants are responsibly and recycling allows for material recovery and for

47
 Solar PV Atlas

reduction of cumulative energy demand

and associated carbon footprint of PV
modules. Volumes of EOL panels are still
relatively low (PV panels have a long life
time, 20-30 years) but are expected to
considerably grow when larger amounts
of solar panels are retired and returned.
To assess the sustainability of PV modules
and installations, all three pillars of sus-
tainability—economic, social and environ-
mental—should be considered while taking
the entire lifecycle, from sourcing of raw
materials to production, operation, and
end-of-life reclamation.

© First Solar

48
 Annex 1: About this Atlas – Assumptions, Data, and Process
The figures used for land use calculations are extremely cautious:

PV contribution to total electricity mix

The Ecofys Scenario in the The Energy Report suggests solar
PV could contribute 29 per cent of total electricity produc-
tion in 2050, (page 232) however the squares shown in the
preceding maps represent the equivalent of 100 per cent
electricity generated by PV. In reality a mix of different re-
newable energy generation technologies will meet the world’s
future electricity needs.

PV efficiency
Our calculations assume PV efficiency of 15 per cent, a con-
servative number based on today’s commercial technology.
Already manufacturers are showing viable modules at effi-
ciencies of around 20 per cent, and it is reasonable to assume
that technology will further improve between now and 2050.

Solar resource
Annual mean Global Horizontal Irradiance solar resource
data is drawn from 3TIER’s global solar dataset. This high- Figure 6: Each of the selected regions has a “very good” to “excellent” solar resource.
resolution (approximately 3 km) solar resource dataset has The boxplot above shows the relative values and variability of irradiance for the
global coverage and is based on more than a decade of high selected areas. The orange boxes represent the mean irradiance value plus and
resolution satellite imagery using proven techniques, state- minus one standard deviation for each area. The extremes of the black “whiskers”
of-the-art satellite processing algorithms, and publicly avail- on the plot illustrate the minimum and maximum values. Thus the regions with long
able observational data. We converted GHI values of watts/ whiskers see a high variability of solar irradiance across their territories. Regions
metre2 into kilowatt-hours/metre2/day, and we then found with small whiskers, like Madhya Pradesh, see little variation of solar characteristics
the average value for each region. across their territory. The average solar irradiance figures for each area of interest
were derived from the 3TIER global horizontal irradiance data set.

49
 Solar PV Atlas

Protected areas do not equal conservation priorities

De-rating factor Protected areas

Not every bit of the land dedicated to PV electricity For consistency, this atlas drew from two global
production will actually host modules. About 20 per data sets to illustrate protected areas and areas of
cent will be necessary for roads, shadow reduction, particularly critical biodiversity importance: the
service stations, etc. To satisfy this in our calcula- International Union for Conservation of Nature’s
tions, we ‘de-rate’ the land required so that our land Protected Areas (all categories) and the Alliance for
estimates reflect all land dedicated broadly to PV Zero Extinction’s list of critical refuge sites. Beyond
generation, including these roads and shading areas.1 what is shown, various levels of data exist regarding
important conservation areas for each region. Please
Per capita electricity consumption in 2050 refer to WWF country and regional offices for more
This atlas makes the bold assumption that there information about local protected areas and conser-
will be energy equality across borders. To reach per vation priorities.
capita electricity consumption in 2050 for the vari-
ous regions, it takes the total global electricity supply
for 2050 (127.4 EJ/year or 3.5389E+10 MWh/year)
reached by Ecofys in the The Energy Report2 and di-
vides by the UN Population Department’s projection
for 2050 global population (9,191,287,000)3 to get
3.85 MWh/year/person. A region’s projected energy
consumption is the the region’s projected population
in 20504 multiplied by 3.85 MWh/year/person.

50
 Technical corner
• Global Horizontal Irradiance data, courtesy of 3TIER (www.3tier.com) Geospatial processing for this atlas was completed using a combination of
• Population density data from the UNEP and FAO GDAL tools (www.gdal.org) and QGIS (www.qgis.org) for rendering.
• Protected areas from the UNEP (www.protectedplanet.net) In general, the processing steps were the following:
• Protected areas from the Alliance for Zero Extinction
(www.zeroextinction.org) 1. Clip out region specific information for irradiance and population density.
• Basemap data from Natural Earth (www.naturalearth.com). 2. For population density, mask out areas with population density <100 per
• Country boundary information from the Global Admin dataset km2.
(www.gadm.org) 3. For display purposes for solar irradiance, overlay the GHI data on top of
the Base map data.
4. For display purposes for population density and protected areas, overlay
these layers on top of the greyscale basemap data.

To calculate the spatial extent of PV needed to support a given country’s

population in 2050, the following steps were taken

1. Calculate average irradiance in the selected region by averaging the 3TIER

GHI data for the region, defined by Global Admin dataset country bound-
aries.
2. Using this value, expand to a full year to derive the expected irradiance
kWh available.
3. Using the estimated 2010 populations and 2050 populations, calculate
how much energy will be needed, using conservative estimates for per
capita kWh/year.
4. Using a derating factor (assumptions explained in Annex 1 main text)
convert the total energy needed to support the population with PV to the
number of square metres (and then, square kilometres) of PV needed.

51
 Solar PV Atlas

The following calculations for Madagascar illustrate the land area To estimate the land area needed to support projected electricity generation
calculation process: in Madagascar in the year 2050, we first estimate 2050 electricity generation
by multiplying the 2050 projected population in Madagascar (53,561,000
From 3TIER data, we calculate the average GHI value for Madagascar to people) by the projected global per capita electricity generation in 2050
be 6.04 kWh/m2/day. We multiply that figure by 365 and divide by 1000 (approximately 3.85 megawatt-hours per person per year.) We arrive at
to arrive at 2.2046 MWh/m2/year. 206,224,680.9 megawatt-hours per year for total projected electricity gen-
eration in Madagascar in 2050.
6.04 kWh/m2/day * 365 days / 1000 = 2.2046 MWh/m2/year
53,561,000 people * 3.850276898 MWh/person/year ≈
To conservatively estimate a “reasonable PV generation per square metre per 206,224,680.9 MWh/year
year”, we multiply the above figure by 0.15 (for performance of PV system)
and by 0.8 (a derating value to account for shadows, roads, etc. in a project From here we follow the same steps to convert to estimated land area.
installation.) We get 0.264552 megawatt-hours per square metre per year.
206,224,680.9 MWh/year / 0.264552 MWh/m2/year * 0.000001 ≈
2.2046MWh/m2/a * 0.15 * 0.8 = 0.264552 MWh/m2/year 780 km2

To estimate the land area needed to support current electricity generation in

Madagascar, we divide the current annual electricity generation (1,200,000 NOTE: Most of the uncertainty of this calculation is due to uncertainties of the population
and per capita energy consumption in Madagascar in 2050. These calculations are purpose-
MWh/year) by the ‘reasonable PV generation per square metre per year.’ For fully very conservative and likely overestimate the required land areas.
simplicity of expression, we convert square metres to square kilometres and
round the number.

1,200,000 MWh/year / 0.264552 MWh/m2/year * 0.000001 ≈ 4.5 km2

52
 Annex 2 : Impact Categories for Utility-Scale Solar PV
There is currently no international standard for responsible utility-scale PV issued by organizations described above under Electricity in Harmony with
development, construction, and operation, but the following table highlights nature. The list constitutes the kinds of factors that can arise and should be
important areas for evaluation and proactive mitigation. This overview has addressed when developing a solar project.
been developed as a summary of current and best practices and of guidelines

Category Sub-Category Low Score High Score

High regard for dust generation, worker education , control methods (pallia-
Dust Little regard for dust generation, no control efforts
tives, focused water use)

Arrays adjacent to property lines or high traffic roadways; no screen-

Visual Completely out of sight from roads and neighbors
ing or landscaping; night illumination

Equipment backup alarms, post driving, heavy equipment, close to Significant distance buffer; equipment selection; equipment noise shielding;
Noise
property lines or receptors; night work weekday/daylight hours work only
Community
Active local engagement through community organizations and govern-
Stakeholder
Little to no engagement ments; local educational or college programs tours; public outreach activi-
Engagement
ties (meetings, tours)

All local workers; prevailing wage; full personal protective equipment and
extensive safety training and oversight; maximizing local economic develop-
Labor Non-local workers; minimum wage; minimum safety requirements
ment and job creation; focus on aboriginal and indigenous engagement and
employment

Detailed surveys conducted; special interests and other stakeholders con-

sulted; design and construction with high regard for biodiversity; appropri-
Species, Plants,
Design and construction with no regard to local biodiversity ate mitigation measures; ongoing monitoring of impacts; maximizing buffer
etc.
areas around the active site, providing improved habitat potential, visual
buffer, etc.
Biology
Environmental Environmental Impact Study /Assessment conducted, mitigation plan devel-
Not performed; no awareness of any environmental issues
Impact Studies oped with stakeholder involvement

Rigorous fire protection plans; topsoil conserved or replaced; adequate seed-

Soil Protection Little regard for protecting the grassland or site soils
ing of native grasses; compaction and permeable surfaces support growth

53
 Solar PV Atlas

Category Sub-Category Low Score High Score

Usage measured and reported; ambitious water reduction goals set; Con-
Usage Little regard for water use
struction methods implemented to minimize water use

Water Appropriately sized and protected protection and conveyance measures

(retention ponds; rip rap; silt fencing; etc.), effective measures to counter
Storm Water Little regard for storm water or run-off onto neighboring properties
stormwater flow and runoff are in place; post event performance and condi-
tion assessment

Use of disturbed or previously used sites; superimposed on existing struc-

tures (roofs, landfills, parking lots, etc.); greenfield or prime agricultural land
Site Selection Prime agricultural, biological, or cultural land used avoided, worn agricultural or contaminated land used to restore biodiversity;
consider potential for ‘dual use’ of sites (e.g., agricultural/grazing) – this will
Design depend on local climate and farm practices
and Con-
Minimizing grading, installation follows existing topography, minimizing
struction Heavy cut and fill; stripped topsoil; invasive seeds introduced; long-
Grading built roads/gravel, minimizing trenching; topsoil retained or restored; no
term drainage or dust issues
standing water or dust areas

Footprint/ Minimize project footprint with careful balance of ground coverage ratio,
Inefficient use of space
Layout row spacing, module height, etc.

Ensure that a site can be restored to its original state (or better) at the end of
Site Restoration No consideration of land restoration after project life
project’s useful life
End of Life
(EOL) Take-back and recycling of EOL modules and Balance of System products
Recycling No take-back and recycling at module EOL offered considered and addressed as part of project development and permitting
phase

54
 Annex 3 : PV development example – Desert Sunlight
In the 550MW Desert Sunlight project in California, First Solar
significantly reduced the project footprint from the original
study area of over 19,000 acres to approximately 3,800 acres.
These reductions were based on survey results and advice
from experts in a range of disciplines with the aim of minimiz-
ing the biological, cultural, and visual impacts of the project,
including avoiding critical habitat for the threatened desert
tortoise. The reductions also minimized impacts to other sensi-
tive resources such as the Pinto Wash and sand dunes, known
migration routes for bighorn sheep, areas with high concentra-
tion of foxtail cactus, and known cultural resources, including
significant prehistoric resources and key elements of General
Patton’s Desert Training Center. In addition, First Solar worked
to improve construction efficiency with innovative disk and roll
micro grading site preparation techniques, which led to a reduc-
tion in earth movement, resulting in reduced air emissions and
water use during construction associated with dust control and
soil preparation. The Sunlight project benefited from extensive
biological and cultural survey efforts and diverse stakeholder
interaction involving the local County and State agencies, the
US Fish and Wildlife Service, the US Army Corp of Engineers,
Native American Tribes, and numerous environmental NGOs.

© First Solar

55
 Solar PV Atlas

GLOSSARY : solar atlas terminology

ANNEX I SIGNATORY OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: DIF - Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance: GHG - GREENHOUSE GASES:
One of a list of 41 developed/industrialized na- Solar radiation that does not arrive on a direct Natural and manmade gases capable of reflect-
tions listed in Annex I of the United Nations path from the sun, but has been scattered by mol- ing heat back to the surface of the earth, carbon
Framework Convention on Climate Change ecules and particles in the atmosphere and comes dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexa-
(UNFCCC) which have accepted a greater share equally from all directions. See GHI for further fluoride, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and per-
of responsibility for the reduction of greenhouse expalation. fluorocarbons (PFCs) are specifically mentioned
gases as signatories of the Kyoto Protocol. by the Kyoto Protocol as targets for immediate
GHI - GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCE: reduction.
EOL (END-OF-LIFE): The total amount of shortwave radiation received
Referring here to the decommissioning of ma- from above by a surface horizontal to the ground. INSOLATION:
terials at the end of their useful life in a manner This value is of particular interest to photovoltaic Insolation is solar irradiance during a period
responsible to environmental as well as market- installations and includes both Direct Normal of time, measured in this atlas as kilowatts per
based concerns. SEE TAKE BACK. Irradiance (DNI) and Diffuse Horizontal Irradi- square meter per day (kWh/m2/day). Compare
ance (DIF). DNI is solar radiation that comes in to IRRADIANCE.
EPC (ENGINEERING, PROCUREMENT, AND CONSTRUCTION): a straight line from the direction of the sun at its
“Turnkey” arrangement wherein a contractor current position in the sky. DIF is solar radiation IPP - INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCER:
delivers a completed project to an owner for a that does not arrive on a direct path from the sun, Also, Non-Utility Generator (NUG), an organisa-
pre-determined price. Financial risks and design but has been scattered by molecules and particles tion owning facilities to generate electricity for
control are shifted to the contractor and away in the atmosphere and comes equally from all sale to utilities or to end users. These organi-
from the owner. directions. On a clear day, most of the solar radia- sations are often granted price guarantees or
tion received by a horizontal surface will be DNI, protection by a government entity or incumbent
while on a cloudy day most will be DIF. More
DNI - Direct Normal Irradiance: utility.
information and full definitions are available at
Solar radiation that comes in a straight line from
www.3tier.com/en/support/glossary/
the direction of the sun at its current position in IRRADIANCE:
the sky. See GHI for further explanation. Solar irradiance refers to the amount of solar
energy reaching a surface. Compare to INSOLA-
TION, and see also GHI.

56
 GLOSSARY : solar atlas terminology

LCOE – LEVELISED (or LOCALISED) COST OF ELECTRICITY: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR ALL:
The cost of electricity production in standardised The UN Initiative calling for increased renewable
units up to the point of distribution. Measured in energy, energy efficiency, and universal access.
Euro/kWh or $/MWh, for example. LCOE is dis- More information available at sustainableenergy-
tinct from the prices customers pay for electricity forall.org
and often does not reflect subsidies or externali-
ties. TAKE BACK:
A mandatory or voluntary effort by manufacturers
O+M - OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE: or retailers to encourage end-users of a product
The performance of duties related to delivering an to transport the product to a collection center for
expected service and conducting preventative and recycling, repurposing, reuse, or reclamation of
corrective maintenance of facilities or equipment. components.

PV – PHOTOVOLTAIC:
A property of those materials which generate an
electrical current when exposed to light. Some-
times used as a noun to describe a product or
technology with this property.

RE - RENEWABLE ENERGY:
Energy (often electricity) drawn from sources in
the natural environment which are renewed or
replenished on a regular basis without human
intervention. Examples include solar photovoltaic,
wind, hydroelectric, geothermal or biomass-based
energy.

57
 Solar PV Atlas

GLOSSARY : UNITS

KW = KILOWATT:
One thousand (1,000) watts. A measure of power
often referring to instantaneous peak power gen-
eration or consumption capacity.

MW = MEGAWATT:
One million (1,000,000) watts. A measure of
power often referring to instantaneous peak
power generation or consumption capacity.

GW = GIGAWATT:
One billion (1,000,000,000) watts. A measure
of power often referring to instantaneous peak
power generation or consumption capacity.

KWh = KILOWATT-HOUR:
A measure of energy, often used to describe elec-
tricity generation or consumption over time. Ten
(10) light bulbs rated at 100 watts burning for one
hour consume one kilowatt-hour of electricity.

GWh = GIGAWATT-HOUR:
One billion (1,000,000,000) watt-hours, or one
million (1,000,000) kilowatt-hours.

TWh = TERAWATT-HOUR:
One trillion (1,000,000,000,000) watt-hours, or
one billion (1,000,000,000) kilowatt-hours. © First Solar

58
 Notes and References:
In addition to the resources sited below, several 100% Renewable energy by 2050 Indonesia
sources served as foundational contributing work
to this publication and are recommended as further
reading:
1. REN21. 2012. Renewables Global Status Report. 1. The World Bank, Indonesia Data, http://data.world-
2. International Energy Agency. “Technology Roadmap: bank.org/country/indonesia and US Department of
Solar Photovoltaic Energy” 2010. State, Background Note: Indonesia, 2012, http://
WWF. 2010. The Energy Report – 3. Ibid. www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2748.htm
100% Renewable Energy by 2050. 4. The radiation reaching the earth’s surface can be 2. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Republic
www.panda.org/energyreport represented in a number of different ways. Global Indonesia, Statistik Listrik (Electricity Statistics),
Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is the total amount of 2011, http://prokum.esdm.go.id/Publikasi/Statistik/
German Renewable Energies Agency. 2010. shortwave radiation received from above by a surface Statistik%20Listrik.pdf, p. 2
ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEN 2020 POTENZI- horizontal to the ground. This value is of particular in- 3. World Bank
ALATLAS DEUTSCHLAND. terest to photovoltaic installations and includes both 4. Mumtazah, Hani, Indonesia’s Natural Wealth: The
Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) and Diffuse Hori- Right of a Nation and Her People, http://web.archive.
REN21. 2012. Renewables Global Status Report. zontal Irradiance (DIF). DNI is solar radiation that org/web/20061017034459/http://www.islamonline.
comes in a straight line from the direction of the sun net/English/Science/2003/05/article13.shtml
International Energy Agency. 2010. Technology at its current position in the sky. DIF is solar radiation 5. Reegle. Energy Profile Indonesia, http://www.reegle.
Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy. that does not arrive on a direct path from the sun, but info/countries/indonesia-energy-profile/ID
has been scattered by molecules and particles in the 6. Ibid
OECD/IEA, 2011. Solar Energy Perspectives. atmosphere and comes equally from all directions. On 7. Ibid
a clear day, most of the solar radiation received by a 8. Statistik Listrik, p. 3
IRENA. Country reports for selected regions. horizontal surface will be DNI, while on a cloudy day 9. Differ Group, 2012, The Indonesian electricity sys-
most will be DIF. More information and full defini- tem–a brief overview, http://www.differgroup.com/
REEGLE. Energy profiles for selected regions. tions are available at www.3tier.com/en/support/ Portals/53/images/Indonesia_overall_FINAL.pdf, p.
glossary/ 2
5. Fthenakis, V. and H. C. Kim. 2009. Land use and 10. Ibid, p. 5
electricity generation: A life-cycle analysis. Renewable 11. de Wilde, Antonie. ASTAE, Recent Developments
and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13: 1465–1474. In the Commercial Market for Renewable Energy in
Indonesia, p. 3
12. Differ Group, p. 3
13. Ibid, p. 7
14. Reegle
15. de Wilde, p. 5
16. Differ Group, p. 7
17. Reegle
59
 Solar PV Atlas

Notes and References:

MADAGASCAR 5. Ibid
6. Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe Welfare Department, Govt. of Madhya
1. CIA World Factbook, 2011, Madagascar, https://www.cia.gov/library/publica- Pradesh, www.tribal.mp.gov.inIbid
tions/the-world-factbook/geos/ma.html 7. Press Information Bureau, “Per Capita Power Consumption,” http://pib.nic.in/
2. US State Department, Country Profiles, Madagascar, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=74497
ei/bgn/5460.htm#profile 8. Government of India Central Electricity Authority, “Energywise Performance
3. Source: Eberhard, Anton and others, “Africa’s Power Structure Investment–In- Status All India–Regionwise,” http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/genera-
vestment, Integration, Efficiency”, The World Bank, 2011. CAVEAT: Some in the tion_rep/tentative/mar12/opm_16.pdf
field believe this figure to be optimistic. 9. Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission, “Aggregate Revenue Re-
4. Denruyter J-P, et al, December 2010, “Bioenergy in Africa–Time for a Shift?” quirement and Retail Supply Tariff Order for FY 2012-13,” http://www.mperc.
5. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September nic.in/310312-Final%20Tariff-Order-FY-12-13.pdf, p. 136 section 7.6
2011, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/weorept.asp 10. Ibid
x?sy=2009&ey=2016&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=54&pr1. 11. Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission, p. 136 section 7.6
y=13&c=674&s=TMGO&grp=0&a=
6. International Energy Agency, International Energy Statistics, 2011, www.eia.gov/
cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=7 Mexico
7. World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Madagascar Energy vision report, November 2010,
p. 23 1. CIA World Factbook, 2011, Mexico, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/
8. Ibid the-world-factbook/geos/mx.html
9. Hydropower Resource Assessment of Africa,” Ministerial Conference on Water 2. Rosas-Flores, J., Rosa-Flores, D., Galvez, D., 2010, Saturation, energy consump-
for Agriculture and Energy in Africa: The Challenges of Climate Change, 2008. tion, CO2 emission and energy efficiency from urban and rural households appli-
www.sirtewaterandenergy.org/docs/2009/Sirte_2008_BAK_3.pdf ances in Mexico, Energy and Buildings 43, p.10-18
3. CIA
4. Source
Madhya Pradesh 5. World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF), 2011, National and Regional Opportu-
nities to Scale Up Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Mexico. Draft
1. State profile adopted from Department of Public Relation, Govt. Of Madhya Report, Mexico
Pradesh, http://www.mpinfo.org/mpinfonew/english/factfile/mp.asp 6. García-Frapolli, E., Ramos-Fernández, G.,Galicia, E., Serranod, A., 2008, The
2. Census Of India, www.censusindia.gov.in complex reality of biodiversity conservation through Natural Protected Area
3. International Energy Agency, “Electrification Rate by Indian States,” www.iea. policy: Three cases from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, Land Use Policy 26,
org/country/Poverty_India/Electrification.pdf p.715-722
4. Internal WWF and Government of India documents. 7. CFE, Capacidad efectiva instalada por tipo de generación al mes de junio de

60
 Notes and References:
2012, Termoeléctrica y Eoloeléctrica, Productores Independientes (http://www. 7. Ibid
cfe.gob.mx/QuienesSomos/estadisticas/Paginas/Indicadoresdegeneración.aspx ) 8. Ibid
8. CFE Generation Statistics (http://www.cfe.gob.mx/QuienesSomos/estadisti- 9. Ibid
cas/Paginas/Indicadoresdegeneración.aspx) 10. International Energy Agency (IEA), http://www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.
9. Mexican Government, Secretaria de Energia (SENER): http://www.sener.gob. asp?COUNTRY_CODE=MA
mx/res/380/11_Cifras_relevantes_Nov_11.pdf 11. Office National de l’Electricité, “Chiffres Clés à fin 2010,” www.one.org.ma
10. Mexican Government, Systema de Information Energetica (SIE): http://sie. 12. MED-ENEC, November 2008
energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login 13. World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
11. World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC 14. GTZ report 2009, Energy-policy Framework Conditions for Electricity Markets
12. Santoyo-Castelazo, E., Gujba, H., Azapagic, A., 2011. Life cycle assessment of and Renewable Energies
electricity generation in Mexico.Energy 36, p. 1488-1499
13. The Wind Power, ‘Mexico,’ http://www.thewindpower.net/country_en_36_
mexico.php
14. Stähle, H.J., 2007, Der Wegweiser für international Zusammenarbeit und Bil- South Africa
dung, Länderbericht 3, Deutsches Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forsc-
hung, Internationales Büro des BMBF, Technologiezentrum (VDI), Bonn 1. Statistics South Africa, “Mid-year population estimates,” July 27, 2011. Avail-
15. Asociación Nacional de Energía Solar, A.C http://www.anes.org/anes/index. able: www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0302/P03022011.pdf
php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=13 2. CIA World Factbook, 2011, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-
world-factbook/geos/sf.html.
3. Statistics South Africa, “Gross domestic product–Third quarter 2011,” www.
statssa.gov.za/publications/P0441/P04413rdQuarter2011.pdf; World Bank,
Morocco 2011, “Gross National Income per capita, Atlas method and PPP,” http://sitere-
sources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf
1. CIA World Fact Book, 2012, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the- 4. IRENA, Department of Energy, Republic of South Africa, “South African Energy
world-factbook/fields/2043.html Synopsis–2010,” www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2010/South_Afri-
2. Ibid can_Energy_Synopsis_2010.pdf; and Department of Energy, Republic of South
3. World Bank, Morocco, http://data.worldbank.org/country/morocco Africa, “Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity, 2010-2030–Revision 2,” www.
4. In 2003, deforestation was estimated at 31,000 ha per year in “Baseline Study doe-irp.co.za/content/IRP2010_2030_Final_Report_20110325.pdf; Eskom,
for Morocco, Financing the Development of Renewable Energy in the Mediter- March 2011, “Fact sheets–Pricing and the Inclined Block Tariff (IBT),” http://
ranean Region”, UNEP financialresults.co.za/2011/eskom_ar2011/fact_sheets_11.php
5. USAID, “Morroco Biodiversity and Tropical Forestry Assessment” p. 1 5. National Planning Commission, November 11, 2011, “National Development
6. Programme Energies Renouvelables au Maroc, 2010, ONE Presentation on Plan–Vision for 2030,” www.npconline.co.za/medialib/downloads/home/
November 30, 2010 at DIHK Hotel Sheraton NPC%20National%20Development%20Plan%20Vision%202030%20-lo-res.pdf

61
 Solar PV Atlas

Notes and References:

6. “Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity, 2010-2030 – Revision 2”, Department c10/presentations/A2-Hasan-Koktas.pdf
of Energy, Republic of South Africa, p. 15. 4. Enerdata, 2011, “Trends in global energy efficiency – Turkey,” www.05.abb.com/
7. “Fact sheets – Pricing and the Inclined Block Tariff (IBT)”, op. cit. global/scot/scot316.nsf/veritydisplay/bcfe8957cb2c8b2ac12578640051cf04/$fi
8. Business Live, December 4, 2011 “Zuma endorses SA Renewables Initiative,” le/turkey.pdf
www.businesslive.co.za/southafrica/2011/12/04/zuma-endorses-sa-renewables- 5. According to the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey
initiative imported 97.3% of the natural gas it uses and 1/3 of the coal in 2009. The overall
9. According to Statistics South Africa the unemployment rate in the 3rd quarter of import dependence was measured at 73.1%. Ministry of Energy and Natural
2011 was 25%, www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02113rdQuarter2011.pdf Resources, 2009, “Strategic Plan (2010-2014),” http://www.enerji.gov.tr/yayin-
10. “National Development Plan – Vision for 2030”, op. cit. lar_raporlar_EN/ETKB_2010_2014_Stratejik_Plani_EN.pdf
11. Business Live 6. State Planning Organization, May 21, 2009, “Electricity Energy Market and Sup-
12. PV Magazine, December 1, 2011 ,“1.2 MW South African PV project completed,” ply Security Strategy Paper”
www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/12-mw-south-african-pv-project- 7. The DESERTEC concept aims at promoting the generation of electricity in
completed_100005087/; SABC, December 4, 2011, “Zuma launches South Af- Northern Africa, the Middle East and Europa using solar power plants, wind
rica’s first solar power plant,” www.sabc.co.za/news/a/fdffde00494ce3e9b05b- parks and the transmission of this electricity to the consumption centers, pro-
ba459b895fbd/Zuma-launches-South-Africa’s-first-solar-power-plant--20111204 moted by the non-profit DESERTEC Foundation. It hopes to meet 15% of Eu-
13. The figures quoted are from South Africa’s 1st National Communication under rope’s electricity by 2050. The 400 billion euro project is supported by groups,
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2004), refer to: including Siemens and Deutsche Bank. For more information: www.desertec.org/
De Villers, M.G., Howells, M.I. and Kenny, A.R. 2000. Sustainable Energy for 8. The Mediterranean Solar Plan aims to create 20 GW worth of new renewable
South Africa: Energy Scenarios from 1995 to 2025. Energy Research Institute, energy sources by 2020 – the equivalent of around 15 coal-fired power plants.
University of Cape Town. However, the plan has stalled in recent years. http://www.medea.be/en/themes/
euro-mediterranean-cooperation/mediterranean-solar-plan-msp/
9. Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Strategy Development Unit, April
2010, “2009 Annual Report,” www.enerji.gov.tr/yayinlar_raporlar_EN/2009_
Turkey Faaliyet_Raporu_EN.pdf
10. Enerji Enstitusu, “Year 2012 Electricity Tariff,” http://enerjienstitusu.
1. Turkish Statistical Institute, “The Gross Domestic Product II. Quarter: April, com/2011/01/11/2011-yili-yeni-elektrik-tarifesi/#more-427, Electricity prices
May, June/2010”, Press Release Number 186, September 12, 2011, www.turkstat. are determined by the EPDK for 3 month intervals.
gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=8586 11. Yener, Deniz, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), May 4, 2001, “Mediterranean Solar
2. OECD/International Energy Agency (IEA), 2010, “Energy Policies of IEA Coun- Hot Spots–Energy Fact Sheet Turkey”.
tries–Turkey 2009 Review,” http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2009/ 12. Ruchser, Matthias, “Opinion: Desertec or Mediterranean Solar Plan–whose sun
turkey2009.pdf
is shining brighter?,” Deutsche Welle, August 3, 2010, http://www.dw-world.de/
3. Kotkas, Hasan, “Turkish Energy Market – What to expect in the near future”, dw/article/0,,5861222,00.html
Energy Market Regulatory Authority, October 18, 2010, www.the-atc.org/events/

62
 Notes and References:

Electricity in Harmony with Nature: Photovoltaics 3. For consistency with the Ecofys calculations, these figures were pulled from
Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
1. International Energy Agency. “Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic En- United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
ergy” 2010. and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/
2. Fthenakis, V. and H. C. Kim. 2009. Land use and electricity generation: A life- unup, Tuesday, June 05, 2012; 4:43:45 AM.
cycle analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13: 1465–1474. 4. For countries, these figures were pulled from Population Division of the Depart-
3. Fthenakis, V., H. C. Kim, and E. Alsema. 2008. “Emissions from Photovoltaic ment of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,World
Life Cycles, “Environ. Sci. Technol., 42 (6), 2168-2174. Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.
4. Macknick, Jordan; Newmark, Robin; Heath, Garvin and Hallett, KC. 2011. A htm. For Madhya Pradesh, these figures were extrapolated: Decadal Growth
Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Elec- Rate of MP is 17.64% as per the latest census in 2011- http://censusmp.gov.in/
tricity Generating Technologies. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Tech- censusmp/pdfs/Press-Release-Paper-1-04April2011.pdf
nical Report NREL/TP-6A20-50900.
5. Fthenakis, V., and Turney, D., Environmental Impacts from the Installation
and Operation of Large-scale Solar Power Plants’, Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 15 (2011), 3261-3270.
6. More information available at www.cdmgoldstandard.org.
7. Comité de Liason Energies Renouvelables (CLER). 2011. Parcs photovoltaïques
au sol : oui mais pas à tout prix et pas n’importe comment, http://www.cler.
org/info/spip.php?article8429
8. Comité de Liason Energies Renouvelables (CLER). Guide d’évaluation des
projets de parcs solaires au sol - www.cler.org/info/IMG/pdf/Guide_d_e_valu-
ation_FINAL_2-2.pdf

Annexes
1. This derating methodology is consistent with practices established in “ER-
NEUERBARE ENERGIEN 2020 POTENZIALATLAS DEUTSCHLAND” Pub-
lished by the German Renewable Energies Agency, December 2010 www.
unendlich-viel-energie.de
2. WWF Energy Report, Part 2 – The Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010. Page 231.

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