Unit 3: Population and Migration (Lessons 1-4)

Introduction

How many people are there in the world? The number of people on Earth
continues to grow. As of October, 2014, an estimated 7.195 billion people
live on our planet. Experts predict that the world population will grow
beyond 10 billion in the next forty years. Does the planet have enough
resources for all of these people?

The maps below show the dramatic population growth of our world.

Figure 2: The world population in 1927 was 2 billion.

Figure 1: In 1800, the human population on Earth was 1
Source: NOVA. Population Densities through Time. World in
billion.
Balance. (PBS). http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/
Source: NOVA. Population Densities through Time. World in
Balance. (PBS).
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/

Figure 3: The world population in 1999 was 6 billion.

Source: Human Numbers Through Time. World in the Balance.
PBS/WGBH. 19 November 2012
<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html>.

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 The study of population patterns and change is known as demography.
There are many global issues connected to population. Since the earth has
limited resources, changes in the world’s population will affect the
allocation, use, and distribution of these resources. The size and
characteristics of a country’s population can have economic, social,
environmental, and political consequences for people living there.

Let’s look at an example. Suppose you live in a country where most of the
people are under the age of 18 years old. What if most of the people living
in that country could not provide food, clothing, or shelter for themselves?
Who would help them?

In this unit, we will explore questions about population, migration and

urbanization such as:
 How do social scientists investigate population issues?
 How are population, migration, and urbanization issues connected?
 In what ways are issues related to population, migration and
urbanization global problems?
 How do social, political, and economic decisions societies make
reflect and influence demographics?

It is hard to imagine how many people there are on the planet and how that
number continues to change. The population of the planet grows faster and
faster each year. The following website will help you visualize how fast the
human population is growing on Earth: http://www.census.gov/popclock/.

Understanding and predicting population

growth or decline allows us to plan for the
future. Many local decisions such as
whether to build roads, or open or close
school buildings are connected population
changes. Similarly, many national public
policy issues such as health care and the
retirement age are related to population
concerns. Figure 4: MC3 Project. Graphic
Organizer. SS060301.

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 Population Distribution and Density
People are not evenly distributed across the Earth. Some places on the
Earth are densely populated and some are sparsely populated.
Demographers are social scientists who study changes in population and
population patterns. Population is the total number of people in a particular
area. In the United States, the government counts the population every ten
years in what is called the census. Put on your demographer hat and look
at the map below based on the 2010 census. Do you see any spatial
patterns? What are they?

Figure 5: U.S. Census. Population Density by County.

Population density is a mathematical concept. It is defined as the number

of people living in a defined area. There are some regions of the United
States that are more crowded than others. This means that they have a
higher population density. For example, the population density of New
York City is 26,000 people per square mile. However, there are also areas

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 in the United States where there is just one person per square mile.
Overall, the average population density of the U.S. is about 88 people per
square mile.

The natural features or characteristics of a region often influence where

people live. Based on the map in Figure 5, there are more people in the
eastern half than the western portion of the United States. It is easier for
people to build communities on flat land. In addition, water provides
resources and a means for transportation. These physical features act as
pull factors in attracting people to settle near them. There are other
physical features that act as push factors since it is difficult to live in certain
environments such as mountains or deserts. Looking at the patterns in the
map above, what physical features may explain why the population density
is high in certain areas? Can you think of any physical features that may
explain why the population density is sparse in other areas?

Similarly, people are not evenly distributed across the Earth. Population
distribution refers to the spread or pattern of settlement in a given region.
Population distribution is the spatial pattern you see when you look at the
various population densities in a given area. Both the distribution and
density of people on the Earth is related to differences in geographic
features and the availability of resources such as jobs, food, water, and
transportation.

Demographers study both population density and population distribution.

Some questions that their investigations raise include:

 Is the world overpopulated? If the world is not overpopulated now,

can it ever be? What criteria would you use to determine
“overpopulation”?
 What problems might arise in crowded areas?
 How might living in a crowded place affect your quality of life?

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 Population Growth
The population of a region does
not usually stay the same.
Everyday babies are born,
people die, and yet others
move. Population growth
depends on three factors: birth
rate, death rate, and migration.
Figure 6: Factors in Determining Population Growth.
Birth Rates Source: MC3 Project. Graphic Organizer. SS060302.

How fast is the human population on Earth growing? Every day people are
born. The birth rate of an area is the number of births each year per 1,000
people. Birth rates are related to education, economic stability, infant
mortality rates, fertility rates, and other factors. Birth rates tend to be high
in many less developed countries. In those places, often children are
needed to work on farms and eventually care for the elderly. Less
developed countries also tend to have lower levels of educational
attainment and higher levels of infant mortality, which are linked with high
birth rates. On the other hand, higher educated people tend to have fewer
children.

Fertility rates can also affect birth rates. The fertility rate is the number of
children women on average have. People living on continents such as
North America have a lower fertility rate (1.9), while those on continents
such as Africa with a large number of less developed countries have higher
fertility rates (4.7).

Death Rates
Population growth also depends on the number of people who die. The
death rate is the number of deaths each year per 1,000 people. When
people live longer we say that they have a higher life expectancy. A higher
life expectancy results in a lower death rate. Today, people live longer than
ever before due to improved health care and sanitation. However, life
expectancy rates are not high all over the world. Poor living conditions,
poor sanitation, and lack of available health care all contribute to shorter life

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 expectancy. Due to these factors, less developed countries tend to have
higher death rates than more developed countries

Calculating Population Growth

For a country’s population to grow, the birth rate has to exceed the death
rate. As seen in Figure 7 below, population growth rates are higher in less
developed countries than they are in more developed countries. Less
developed countries tend to have birth rates that are considerably higher
than their death rates. Thus, the poorest countries tend to experience the
most population growth. Figure 7: World Population Growth
Source: http://envs470-module3-
globalsustainabilitysolutions.wikispaces.com/Eliminate+Poverty+and+Stabilize+Populat
To determine how fast a ion

country’s population is growing,

demographers calculate what is
known as the rate of natural
increase. The rate of natural
increase is calculated by
subtracting the number of
deaths (e.g., death rate) from
the number of births (e.g., birth
rate). The rate of natural
increase is expressed as a
percentage. In the United
States, the rate of natural increase is about 0.5 percent.

The following video helps visualize the world population growth over time:
http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-
grows-to-7-billion.

Migration
Although birth rates and death rates are the major factors that contribute to
population growth, the movement of people also plays a role. Migration
refers to the semi-permanent movement of people. Sociologists classify
the causes of the movement of people into two categories: push factors
and pull factors. Mass migrations can affect the overall population of a
region. Mass migrations tend to occur in response to natural disasters,
conflict, or a lack of resources in a region.

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 A Demographic Transition Model
Demographers try to predict the growth of populations so that nations and
communities can plan ahead. Decisions such as whether to expand a
region’s infrastructure (roads, bridges, water supply, etc.), build schools, or
add hospitals have to be made years in advance. Governments need time
to draw up plans, raise funds, and complete construction.

Due to the work of demographers studying patterns of population growth,

people can now plan ahead. Demographers have found that countries
typically go through four distinct stages of population growth. They call this
pattern the demographic transition model. It shows how countries move
from a period of high birth and high death rates to a period of low birth and
low death rates. This pattern happens as countries become more
economically developed. These stages are illustrated in the graph below.

Figure 8: A Demographic Transition Model

Source: MC3 Project. Graphic Organizer. SS060303.

In stage one, both birth rates and death rates are high. This occurs in less
developed countries. These countries tend to be agriculturally based and
birth rates are high due to the desire for large families. More children
means more help with farm work. In addition, poor health conditions mean
not all children will survive to adulthood. So, having more children will
ensure at least some children will survive to adulthood and be able to
support their elderly parents. Poor health and harsh living conditions are
also the cause the high death rate in these countries. There will be little
population growth for countries in this stage since the birth and death rates
are about the same.

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 In stage two, death rates plummet while birth rates begin to drop only
slightly. Improved living conditions and better health practices tend cause
the death rate to drop during this stage. Many less developed countries are
at this stage because improved health and sanitation conditions result in
lower death rates. The United States and many countries of Europe
entered stage two during the Industrial Revolution. Improvements in living
conditions during this time period lowered the death rate. However, it takes
time for birth rates to adjust. In stage two, birth rates take longer to change
and drop only slightly. This is because many less developed countries are
still agriculturally based, so large families are still desired. Although a
country becomes more developed during this stage, it often takes a long
period of time to change attitudes and behaviors about family size;
therefore, changes in the birth rate do not happen quickly. As a result,
countries in stage two continue to have high population growth.

In stage three, birth rates continue to decline, eventually catching up with

death rates. For countries in stage three, population growth will be high at
the early part of this stage but fall to near zero in the later part as the birth
rates and death rates become almost equal. On the graph above, this can
be seen when the green and red lines intersect.

In stage four, birth rates and death rates remain low and become stable.
Countries in stage four will have very little population growth since the
death rates and birth rates are nearly equal. Today, the United States and
other more developed countries such as Japan and many European
countries are at stage four of the demographic transition model.

Population Campaigns

Since population growth tends to soar when death rates decrease,

governments of some less developed countries have made efforts to
address this problem by encouraging smaller families. Below are two
government-created posters used to try to influence people to have fewer
children.

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 19

Figure 9: This poster is in support of China’s ‘one Figure 10: This poster from India equates large
child’ policy, which was instituted in the 1970’s as families with lots of problems. India implemented a
the country became increasingly concerned with its family-planning policy in the 1950s. Its total fertility
ability to feed its growing population. This policy
rate has declined by more than 40 percent since the
stipulates that urban couples should have only one
child. 1960’s, and today the average number of children is
Source: three per family. Despite these efforts, current
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/population- projections predict that India will overtake China’s
campaign.html position as the most populous country by 2050.
Source:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/population-
campaign.html

Why does the age of a population

matter?

The age distribution of a population is Figure 11: A population pyramid

a factor that many social scientists
consider when studying political,
economic, geographic, or social
issues. Demographers have created
a special type of graph called a
population pyramid to help social
scientists understand the age
distribution of population.

Population pyramids can provide three

types of very useful information:

 how different ages and genders are distributed,

 whether a population is growing, stable or shrinking, and
 what the age distribution of a population will look like in the future.

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 Age and Gender Distribution Information
Below is an example of a population pyramid. It shows the population
distribution of United States in 2010 in terms of millions of people. One
side of the population pyramid shows males and the other shows females.
The bars on the graph correspond to different age groups. The width of the
bars reflects the size of the population at each age group. Using the
pyramid we can see that there were approximately 10 million males
between the ages of 0-4 in the United States in 2010.
Figure 11: Population
pyramid of the United
States in 2010.
Source:
http://www.census.gov/
population/international
/data/idb/informationG
ateway.php

MALES FEMALES

Notice how wide the bars are for the age groups of 45-49 and 50-54. This
group creates a bubble on the population pyramid. These people were
born in the 1950’s and are commonly referred to as “baby boomers”. Right
now, this age group is still in the work force. How might this group affect
the United States in 2020, when they are no longer in the work force?

Demographers refer to two groups of people as dependents, those younger

than 15 and those 65 and older. Both these groups are often dependent on
the middle group for economic support. The number of dependents
compared to the number of people in the work force is often called the
dependency ratio. When the dependency ratio gets high, the large number
of dependents becomes a bigger financial burden for workers to bear.

Notice the population pyramid of Tanzania below. It looks very different

from that of the United States and depicts more of a true pyramid shape. In
Tanzania there are many more young dependents relative to those of
working age compared to the United States. A country with so many young
people will put a strain on its existing schools, teachers, and hospitals.
Also, as these children grow older, it will be challenging to provide enough
jobs for them.
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 Figure 12: Population
pyramid for Tanzania.

Source:
http://www.census.gov/popul
ation/international/data/idb/i
nformationGateway.php

Population Growth Information

A population pyramid always reflects a country’s current population growth
trend. If the number of children at the bottom of the pyramid is large
compared to the young adults of child-bearing age, it means the population
is growing rapidly. Figure 13 below shows what a population pyramid looks
like in this situation. When the number of young adults is approximately
equivalent to the number of children, the population is relatively stable
(Figure 14). When there are fewer kids at the bottom of a pyramid than
those people who are in their child-bearing years, it means there are
people choosing not to have children, and the population overall is
shrinking (Figure 15).

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 Figure 13: MC3 Project. PowerPoint Slide 16. SS060304.

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 Future Population Information
Population pyramids are helpful in providing current information. They also
can be used to project future population growth and to identify potential
consequences of the growth pattern. As time passes, people move up the
age brackets. Although looking at a current population pyramid may not
reveal any problems or issues, “aging” that pyramid can reveal new
information. For instance, in the U.S. population pyramids below, it
becomes very apparent that by 2050 there will be many more people at the
top. These elderly people, who will be at retirement age, may pose a
serious strain on the working class who are financially supporting them.
The government can use this information and make decisions today to plan
for this challenge.

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 Figure 14: Changes in U.S. population by age as depicted on three population pyramids. 19

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