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Probability: - Probability - Refers To The Study of Randomness and Uncertainty of An Outcome

This document discusses key concepts in probability, including: 1) Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of outcomes, and quantifies the chances or likelihood of various event outcomes. 2) Fundamental principles include classical probability, additive rules for mutually exclusive and non-exclusive events, conditional probability, and Bayes' rule. 3) Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities of events using these principles, such as the probability of selecting different candies or letters.

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zyrus aguilar
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143 views16 pages

Probability: - Probability - Refers To The Study of Randomness and Uncertainty of An Outcome

This document discusses key concepts in probability, including: 1) Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of outcomes, and quantifies the chances or likelihood of various event outcomes. 2) Fundamental principles include classical probability, additive rules for mutually exclusive and non-exclusive events, conditional probability, and Bayes' rule. 3) Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities of events using these principles, such as the probability of selecting different candies or letters.

Uploaded by

zyrus aguilar
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY

• Probability – refers to the study of


randomness and uncertainty of an
outcome.
– Quantify the chances, or likelihood, associated
with various outcomes of an event.
0  P ( A) 1
P ( )  0
P (S) 1
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES
• Classical Probability
• Additive Rule
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Complementary Events
• Conditional Probability
• Multiplicative Rules
• Baye’s Rule (Theorem of Total Probability)
Classical Probability
• If an experiment can result in any one ofN
different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactlyn of these outcomes correspond
A, then the probability of event
to event A
is
nA
P ( A) 
N
Classical Probability
• A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees,
and 2 chocolates. If a person makes a random
selection of one of these candies, find the
probability of getting (a) a mint, (b) a toffee, and
(c) a chocolate.
6 1
P (m i n t )    0 .5 0  5 0 %
12 2
4 1
P ( toffee )  
12 3
2 1
P ( ch ocol a te )  
12 6
Classical Probability
• If a letter is chosen at random from the English
Alphabet, find the probability that the letter (a) is
a vowel, (b) is listed somewhere ahead of letter j ,
g.
(c) is listed somewhere after the letter
5
P ( vow el ) 
26
9
P ( a h ea dofj ) 
26
19
P ( a fter g ) 
26
Additive Rule
• We shall use the symbol P(A U B) to
denote the probability of occurrence of
A or B.
events
• IfA andB are any two events, then

P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )  P ( A  B )
Additive Rule
• The probability that Paula passes Mathematics
is 2/3, and the probability that she passes
English is 4/9. If the probability of passing both
subjects is ¼, what is the probability that Paula
will pass in either subjects?
P (M )  2 /3
P(E )  4 /9
P (M  E ) 1 / 4
P (M  E )  P (M )  P (E )  P (M  E )
2 4 1 31
P (M E)      0 .8 6 1 1
3 9 4 36
Additive Rule
• If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
playing cards, find the probability of getting an
ace or a spade.
P ( A)  4 / 52
P(B)  13 / 52
P(A  B )  1 / 52
P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )  P ( A  B )
4 13 1 16
P(A B)      0 .3 0 7 7
52 52 52 52
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• IfA andB are mutually exclusive events

P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities are 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23,
respectively that a person purchasing a new
automobile will choose the color green, white,
red or blue, what is the probability that a given
buyer will purchase a new automobile that
comes in one of these colors?

P (G  W  R  B )  0 .0 9  0 .1 5  0 .2 1  0 .2 3  0 .6 8
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any
given workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, respectively, what is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day
at work?
P ( x  5)  0 .2 8  0 .2 4  0 .1 0  0 .0 7  0 .6 9
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If A and A’ are complementary events, then

P ( A)  P ( A ')  1
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any
given workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, respectively, what is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day
at work?

P(x  5)  1  P ( x  5)  1   P (3)  P ( 4 ) 
P(x  5)  1  ( 0 .1 2  0 .1 9 )  0 .6 9
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• The probability of an eventB occurring when it is
known that some eventA has occurred is called
the conditional probability. The symbol is usually
read ‘the probability that B occurs given that A
occurs’ or simply ‘the probabilityBof , given
A .’
P(A B)
P (B A) 
P ( A)
P(B  A)
P(A B) 
P(B)
• The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs
on time is 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is
0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
a. arrives on time given that it departed on time
b. departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

P(A D) 0 .7 8
P(A D )    0 .9 3 9 8
P(D ) 0 .8 3
P(B  A) 0 .7 8
P(A B)    0 .9 5 1 2
P(B) 0 .8 2
• The probability that an automobile being filled
with gasoline also needs an oil change is 0.25;
the probability that it needs a new oil filter is
0.40; and the probability that both the oil and the
filter need changing is 0.14. If the oil has to be
changed, what is the probability that a new oil
filter is needed?
0 .1 4
P(F C )   0 .5 6
0 .2 5

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