WEF Technology Futures GTGS 2021

In collaboration
with Deloitte
Technology Futures:
Projecting the Possible,
Navigating What’s Next
INSIGHT REPORT
APRIL 2021
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a n d th f bias
AI sue o
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surveillance
https://
Images: Getty Images
Contents
Introduction 3
1 A brief history of the future 4
2 Lines of the times: a framework for foresight 8
2.1 Looking back: trend lines 9
2.2 Looking forwards: projections 10
2.3 Making it meaningful: filters 11
3 The future through the LEnS of information 13
3.1 Context 14
3.2 The probable 15
3.3 The possible 16
3.4 Maple’s story 18
4 The future through the LEnS of locality 21
4.1 Context 22
4.2 The probable 23
4.3 The possible 24
4.4 Frank’s story 26
5 The future through the LEnS of the economy 29
5.1 Context 30
5.2 The probable 31
5.3 The possible 32
5.4 Alex’s story 34
6 The future through the LEnS of education 37
6.1 Context 38
6.2 The probable 39
6.3 The possible 40
6.4 Maiah’s story 42
7 Ready to shape the future 45
7.1 Signals in the noise 46
7.2 “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” 46
7.3 Mind the digital gap 47
7.4 Intelligence is as intelligence does 48

© 2021 World Economic
7.5 Don’t bet against an abundance of ingenuity 48
Forum. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication 7.6 Invest in moonshots 49
may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or Annex 50
by any means, including
photocopying and recording, Acknowledgements 54
or by any information
storage and retrieval system. Endnotes 55
Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 2

Introduction
Both practical and imaginative, this report
aims to enhance strategic foresight by
making the future a little less uncertain
Plotting a course
The new technologies of the fourth industrial The global crisis caused by COVID-19 has
revolution, such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud compounded the challenge that leaders face in
computing and robotics, are changing the way we trying to plan ahead with conviction – the future
live, learn and do business at a rate unprecedented feels more uncertain than ever. It is imperative,
in human history. This seismic shift is playing out then, that the people responsible for plotting our
in a world characterized by unreliable political collective course forward are able to access tools
Ruth Hickin landscapes and increasing environmental instability. that offer them a better understanding of the
Strategy Lead, Centre for the possibilities that life beyond the near future holds.
Fourth Industrial Revolution,
World Economic Forum
Defining the future
The Oxford Dictionary of English offers nine distinct of the future), a strategic discipline that can help
definitions for the word “future”; some are rather set a more intentional course towards tomorrow,
pedestrian (“the time that will come”), others more using practical insights to help dodge oncoming
deterministic (“what will happen”). People, too, headwinds.
use a diverse set of words to describe their sense
of the future. Many will tell you that it is “clear”, Another of the Oxford Dictionary’s definitions for
“transparent” and “entirely predictable”; others see the future, “the possibility of being successful or
it as “opaque” and “unknowable” – to them, time surviving at a later time”, perhaps best describes
Mike Bechtel and energy spent divining the future feels like folly. the territory that we explore in this report. In the
Chief Futurist and Managing following pages, we examine a number of possible
Director, Deloitte Consulting
In the following report, we argue that neither future scenarios, and identify where and how
picture is accurate. Indeed, we see the future technology might play a role. We want to help you
as being translucent, a collage of intriguing consider which technologies will be relevant to your
shapes and shadows, but few fine details. This organization in the future – not only in the next few
perspective is grounded in futurism (the study years, but in the next decade and beyond.
How this report is organized
Chapter 1 (“A brief history of the future”) slice-of-life memoirs written from the perspective of
identifies the themes that have characterized the four very different people in the year 2030-something;
development of modern information technology. taken together, they help us think about a number of
different possible futures and hopefully, to an extent,
Chapter 2 (“Lines of the times: a understand how they might feel.
framework for foresight”) introduces a novel
methodology for projecting these historical Chapter 7 (“Ready to shape the future”) takes
insights forward, towards foresight. us up to the “So what?” and the “Now what?”
Having studied the journey to the present (Chapter
Chapters 3–6 (each seeing the future through a 1), suggested a model for considering the future
different “LEnS”) puts this research-based rubric to (Chapter 2), and tried to imagine possible futures
work, marrying research with pieces of speculative and the lives of people living in them (Chapters 3–6),
fiction that offer a vision of the future through the lens we end by offering a set of actionable takeaways
of information/locality/the economy/education. The that should equip readers with the insights and
short stories that end each of these chapters are foresight critical to tomorrow’s leaders.

1 A brief history
of the future
Looking anew at the history of computing
uncovers structural patterns that help us
better see our digital path forwards

Computers, now In the 1940s, recognizably modern forms of Americans [were] using a home computer for some
two steps removed information technology were anything but personal or work-related task”.6
from their studious ubiquitous. The earliest digital computers were
exceedingly difficult to use and were almost It seemed that modern information technology had
arithmetic origins,
exclusively the province of men in white lab coats. truly arrived. That is, until Robert Metcalfe, 3Com
had become the
ENIAC - by most accounts, the first general- co-founder and networking pioneer, demonstrated
global substrate for purpose digital computer - was “a monstrosity”1 that the usefulness of a computer system is
humanity’s higher- that weighed nearly 27 tonnes and filled a 50-foot- proportional to the square of its number of users.7
order aspirations. long room. Able to calculate 5,000 arithmetic In simpler terms, Metcalfe’s Law helped predict
problems per second,2 this mechanical oddity was the next act in this unfolding technological drama:
formally debuted in 1946. Press reports at the time the development of the internet. Computers, now
proclaimed the dawn of a new era of “giant, magic two steps removed from their studious arithmetic
brains”. These brains, amusingly primitive by today’s origins, had become the global substrate for
standards, were first put to work on rarefied matters humanity’s higher-order aspirations – calculation
of nation-state security, such as calculating artillery had taken a back seat to connection, creation
firing tables.3 and commerce. By 2010, an estimated 30% of
the world’s 6.9 billion people were online.8 Clearly,
At the time, technologists and even entrepreneurs information technology had reached its destination.
were notoriously conservative in their estimations of
the eventual reach of their creations. IBM chairman A decade or so earlier George Gilder, economist
and Chief Executive Officer Thomas J. Watson Jr. and investor, had noticed that bandwidth was
is often cited for a statement he reputedly made in growing at triple the rate of computing power.
the early 1940s that predicted “a world market for Gilder’s Law foresaw what the driver would be for
about five computers”.4 the mobility revolution that helped define the first
decade of the 21st century.9 In the years between
Enter Moore’s Law, the semi-famous assertion 2000 and 2010 we witnessed the move from
made in 1965 by research engineer Gordon Moore “America online” to “everyone online”, to “everyone
that, thanks to the transistor, computing power (and online, everywhere we go”. Sit-down click-and-type
cost) would double (and halve) every two years.5 gave way to on-the-go touch-and-swipe,10 and for
Certainly, PhDs with punch cards did gradually give better or worse, everyone was now always on, and
way to professionals with printers. By the mid- always connected. End of the line, right?
1990s, Moore’s Law was proven by computers
being in the hands of the majority of the developed Not even close. The journey doesn’t end with
world’s working professionals. Fifty years after everyone online. The last few years have been
ENIAC first started to crunch numbers, “24 million marked by an explosion of connected “things”:

smart speakers, thermostats, doorbells, vacuum the unenlightened actors in some future author’s
cleaners, etc. As of 2019, the average US household history. It’s human nature to crave exceptionalism,
had over 11 digitally-connected devices,11 but to feel as though we are the ones who’ve finally
only 2.6 people. While no one has attributed this figured it all out, that we are the cohort uniquely
latest wave of change to a particular “law”, early privileged to live in what Francis Fukuyama
returns would suggest that the proliferation of robot famously dubbed “the end of history”.12 It’s clear
roommates is definitely set to continue. though that, through the long lens of history, we’re
no more or less special than our predecessors or
But isn’t this report about the future of technology? our successors.
It’s a fair question. Why are we looking back when
our objective is to peer forward? As it turns out, The future is coming faster. The second takeaway
futurists are closet historians. We look back to is that the duration of these waves of change is
make sense of our journey to the present and, more shrinking. The lab-coat mainframe era lasted a
specifically, to plot the trend lines that can help us good 30 years; the minicomputer/microcomputer
chart our course towards what might be coming era, 20; internet 1.0 changed the world in 10, and
next. So, what insights can the brief history we’ve digital mobility changed it all over again in just five.
given above offer? Any reasonable taxonomy of technological change
shares the following tenet: that technological
Firstly, that the future really is still coming. It’s worth progress follows the exponential function or,
noting that reports of the death of technology as a expressed another way, that the tempo of
critical business and societal catalyst are, and have technology-driven change is accelerating.
always been, greatly exaggerated.
The word “exponential” often raises resting heart
We tend to look back at the achievements of our rates. For many it recalls the anxiety of bygone
predecessors with a curious mix of reverence maths exams. Those in the know, however, may get
and hubris. Reverence for what they were able to anxious because they understand that exponents
achieve with so little in the way of affordances and quickly get out of hand. It is hard enough to get
understanding; hubris in the self-affirming tone we conversant with a bucket-load of new buzzwords,
adopt when we highlight our comparative superiority. let alone face the looming dread that next year’s
bucket of neologisms may be that much deeper.
This same pride is what leads us to discount the
inevitable future achievements of our successors. It is no surprise, then, that when faced with this
It is easier and more comfortable to assert that we disorienting feeling of “future shock”,13 many
have largely “arrived”. Our pride of place makes civic and business leaders cross their arms,
it singularly difficult to conceive of ourselves as lower their sights, and remain stubbornly in

the strategic present. Better, perhaps - they unit (CPU) in a modern computer; and the “store”
think - to focus today’s time on the practical was where data was held prior to processing,
and tactical than on the fuzzy and fractal? which is exactly analogous to memory and storage
in today’s computers.15 The “reader” and “printer”
Any self-respecting strategist, however, would say represented the input and output mechanisms,
that this should not be treated as a simple case respectively or, taken together, the user interface
of “either/or”. A Japanese proverb also warns (UI). These three components: CPU, memory and
against taking a binary approach: “Vision without UI continue to be the essential elements of every
action is a daydream. Action without vision is a computer today.
nightmare.” And therein lies the challenge: how can
we efficiently attain enough vision to maintain an Roughly ten years later, transcendentalist American
informed action-orientation? author Henry David Thoreau famously left the hustle
and bustle of urban civilization behind to go and
Thankfully, there is a calmer and more constructive live alone in Walden Woods in Massachusetts. His
means of sensing, and making sense of, the future. was an effort to not just slow down, but also to
So, let’s look backwards again, but this time a good move up to a level above ephemera and glimpse
bit further. the enduring. As Thoreau himself described it, this
was an attempt to “Read not the Times,” but rather
We suggest that It’s 1821. In England, astronomer John Herschel, “Read the Eternities”.16
there has been a asks his friend Charles Babbage, a smart
surprisingly clear generalist if there ever was one (a mathematician, We can use a ladder of our own to climb above
line of progress philosopher, inventor and mechanical engineer), to the detail and see a broader picture. Looking at
double-check some manually-calculated tables of the history of modern information technology in
in three particular
figures for him. Babbage, frustrated by finding error its entirety, from Babbage and Lovelace’s design
layers: interaction, after error, muses: “I wish to God these calculations right up to the developments of the present,
information and had been executed by steam”,14 a humorous nod we suggest that there has been a surprisingly
computation. to the centrality of the industrial revolution in the clear line of progress in three particular layers:
popular imagination of the time – the mechanical interaction, information and computation. We would
muscle of things such as locomotives, steamboats further assert that the entire future of information
and pieces of giant new factory equipment. technology will continue to be a story of progress
along these same three layers.
A decade later, Babbage’s irritation would prove
the inspiration for his and mathematician Ada Yes, because the future is still coming there will
Lovelace’s design for the first general-purpose continue to be unexpected disruptive innovations.
computer, “The Analytical Engine”. Their project And because the future is now coming at us that
never came to fruition, however; the design much faster, there are sure to be more of these with
specifications of their machine exceeded the every passing year. But a Walden-inspired long view
engineering prowess of the day. Yet Babbage allows us to slow things down and see the forest for
and Lovelace’s notes clearly lay out four distinct the trees. Consider the table below, which elevates
functional components: the “mill”, the “store”, the emergence of technology from a “blizzard of
the “reader” and the “printer”. The “mill” was the buzzwords” to something that clearly has direct
calculating unit, analogous to the central processing relevance to the business of the boardroom.
TA B L E 1 A taxonomy of technological change
Babbage’s First digital Mid 20th Late 20th Early 21st 2021:
Eternities design computer century century century Today
Time (years) t –175 t – 75 t – 50 t – 25 t –10 t
Graphical
Punched Command- Mobile Virtual
Reader user interface
Interaction cards line
(GUI)
devices reality
Arithmetic Relational Descriptive Predictive Cognitive

Store
Information calculation databases analytics analytics automation
Client Cloud Distributed

Mill Mainframe Minicomputer
Computation server architectures platforms

2 Lines of the times: a
framework for foresight
Combining different data-analysis tools
allows us to shine a light on not only what
is possible but also what is probable

2.1 Looking back: trend lines
As we’ve already established, we must study the you ask a child (or frankly, an adult) if they’d rather
past to better understand where we are now and, in earn 1 million euros or 1 cent doubled daily for a
turn, to project those trend lines forwards in order to month, you’re likely to hear a majority of irrational
forecast the future. There’s a key thing to remember answers. In simple terms, exponential trends are
about trend lines, though: there are different kinds, those that start small, sometimes imperceptibly
and they are not all created equal. so, but repeatedly self-reinforce so as to become
material, and eventually, game-changers. History
Linear tells us that the forces that most profoundly shape
society tend to follow an exponential trajectory, for
Taken together, Linear trends are the province of traditional example, compound interest, population growth,
we can use strategists and forecasters. The trusty equation Moore’s Law and climate change.
three types of “y = mx + b” tells us that, for some trends, we need
pattern (linear, know only the rate of change (“m”, the slope of the Cyclical
line) to confidently understand, and in turn project,
exponential or
the state of affairs at any future date. In futurism it’s From a too-close vantage point, every trend
cyclical) to broadly tempting to over-rely on linear trend lines because line looks as if it is following either a linear or an
characterize they’re intuitive and typically characterize phenomena exponential trajectory. Pull the lens back, however,
virtually any that are already sizeable. For instance, the cost of and some show themselves to ebb and flow over
natural, social or housing in global terms is “high, and getting higher”, time. Here, life experience and/or an appreciation
technological trend. which makes for attention-grabbing headlines, but is for history come in particularly handy, allowing
not necessarily a trajectory that holds true in times of the seasoned observer to say “I’ve seen this
economic recession, or global pandemics. movie before.” Consider petrol, the price of which
fluctuates not just due to cyclical demand but also
Exponential to sporadic breakthroughs in the development of
aspects of exploration, extraction and refinement.
The thing is, most complex adaptive systems,
whether they are natural or human-made, Taken together, we can use these three types
aren’t linear. They’re curved or, more precisely, of pattern (linear, exponential or cyclical) to
exponential. Dr Albert Allen Bartlett famously argued broadly characterize virtually any natural, social or
that our Achilles heel as a species is our inability to technological trend, as illustrated here:
understand the exponential function.17 Certainly if
FIGURE 1 Trend lines
Ex
po
ne
nti
al
–
Lin
ea
r–
Cyclical
r+
ea
Lin
+
al
e nti
pon
Ex
Known Now

2.2 Looking forward: projections
Armed with an understanding of the different Secondly: the light gets dimmer the further out you
types of trend lines, we’re now in a better position go; this is of course intuitive, but it is worth noting
to project forward, proposing possible futures that it’s easier to “illuminate” scenarios 12 months
based on the aggregation and extrapolation of out than 12 years out.
the data at hand. The word projection seems
particularly relevant here, as it connotes three key Thirdly: we can’t characterize the sides of the
characteristics of a “futures” exercise. projected beam as a stark, binary switch from bright
light to black. Rather, there are shades of grey that
Firstly: like a beam projected from a flashlight, the drop-off in probability towards the boundaries.
range of potential futures is narrower closer to the Respected futurists have all manner of “p-words”
present, and broader further away – so the further for the gradations here (“preferable”, “plannable”,
forward we move in time, the wider the aperture of “probable”, “plausible”, “possible”, “potential” ...
feasible futures. even “preposterous”!) but for our purposes, the use
of simply “probable” and (to denote “less probable”)
“possible” will suffice.
FIGURE 2 Projections
Ex
po
ne
nti
al
–
Lin
ea
r–
le
sib
Pos
Cyclical Probable
Pos
sibl
e
+
e ar
Lin
l+
n tia
ne
po
Ex
Known Now Next

2.3 Making it meaningful: filters
As the data sources available to us exponentially models that can account for all historical data
increase, and the number of trend lines we are able and all future projections become an impossibility.
to project forward also grow as a result, we find Consider the diagram below:
ourselves facing a problem: single “general relativity”
FIGURE 3 Too much information
Compute errors Open

Ex source
Careers po
Primacy of offices ne Decentralized
IoT sensor costs nti data ownership
al
Child mortality rates On-prem
– Metaverse experiences
infrastructure Four-day Universal basic
Population with no education
Lin work week income normalization
Fertility rates ea Information Augmenting the
Inaccessibility of Democratization
clean drinking water
r– costs
of entertainment world (spatial tech)
Malnutrition
Compute Unfettered global trade The rising tide
Credibility of information Publisher profits costs
Supremacy of fiat money
Global Companion Explainable AI Data passports
Traditional Trust
extreme in
poverty bots
institutions le Always-on Software (continues)
9-to-5s
Broadcast media International sib
exchange MBA applicants Pos Primacy of
connectivity eating the world
International data privacy Clean energy growth Income sharing
Cyclical trade agreements Desire for truth
Economic cycles Probable Gigs, not careers The liquid workforce agreements
Dependence on science Taxes Education Virtual learning tools Cybersecurity
Big data meritocracy as a cornerstone
Analytics as a service Demand for STEM Pos Precision medicine
Hydrocarbon usage sibl goes mainstream AR/VR/MR learning
Security threats Virtual work e
Microschools College Energy crises
& shortages Apprenticeships Humans working
degrees Global healthcare Bandwidth with AI
Home schooling Decentralized
Mobile apps spending Certifications
Anxiety & Connected learning Humans working
depression Life expectancy r+ devices against AI
ea Mass unemployment
Global Digital content Lin Ubiquitous connectivity
Legacy black Institutional
temperature Blockchain box solutions data ownership
Digital social interactions AI/ML Problem-driven education
Data volume
l+
tia Neo-autarkies
Information
(& access) Automation n en
po Superiority
Gigs Cryptocurrency
AR/VR
Ex of skills
adoption
Known Now Next
In 1971, American economist Herbert Simon Emergence Scatterplot” (LEnS), which, as

argued that as information approaches infinity, we will see throughout the remainder of this
our ability to meaningfully attend to it approaches report, provides stakeholders with a clear and
zero.18 Or in other words: nobody likes an eye chart. compelling rubric for thinking about where
domain-specific futures are headed.
As a means of tackling this problem, we take a
page from the realm of innovation management; we There is no one right LEnS for any given foresight
apply a domain-specific filter to serve as a liberating exercise. Just as different business models,
constraint, reducing noise, improving signal-to- industries and cultures create richness and
noise ratio, and resulting in a projection space that resilience, so multiple LEnSes can help move us
is both more understandable and, more importantly, beyond a homogeneous viewpoint and towards a
more useful. Rather than attempt to see the entire more holistic understanding of what may lie ahead.
future, we can apply, for example, an education
filter that enables us to focus our attention solely on For the purposes of this report, we’ve created four
the subset of trends and projections most relevant broadly applicable LEnSes that, taken together,
to education (see Figure 4 on following page). demonstrate the breadth of applicability inherent in
the framework: information, locality, economy and
Taken together, these three analysis tools education. It is not this report’s intention to establish
– trend lines, projections and filters – come a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive (a
together to create what we call a “Longitudinal “MECE”) series of domains but rather, to illustrate

how individual filters provide focus, multiple filters a series of speculative fiction stories that vividly
and depth. personify worlds that could each characterize one
of our projections. You will meet Maple, Frank, Alex
The following four chapters each begin with an and Maiah: citizens, students and leaders in the
introduction to one of our four LEnSes, and an year 2030-something, whose memoirs serve as
explanation of the organizing principles we’ve mimetic illustrations of the world seen through a
used in establishing and examining our trend lines. particular LEnS.
We then project and detail a few relatively non-
controversial probabilities, along with a handful of Our goal? Demonstrating the “better together” use
oppositional possibilities. of foresight and fiction in helping us best prepare
for tomorrow with both intellectual clarity and an
After thinking about each future, we then invite empathic sense of purpose.
you to try and feel them by immersing yourself in
FIGURE 4 Education LEnS (Longitudinal Emergence Scatterplot)
Ex
Student
po als
attention span ne e nti
Rote
memorization
nti
al lc red Dominance
– a of diplomas
Physical t ion
titu AI teacher’s
Physical content classrooms Ins assistant
Lin
ea
Population with r– Increased number
no education Textbooks of institutions
Publisher profits Centralized
learning
MBA applicants le Virtual learning tools
International
sib
exchange Pos Education
Lifelong learning
meritocracy
Cyclical Probable
Income sharing
Gig economy agreements
Focus on liberal arts & gig learning Rise of
Pos nano degrees
Microschools Demand for STEM sibl AR/VR/MR
Competency-based e
education College learning
Social-emotional learning degrees Decentralized
learning
Focus on
group learning Education as priority Apprenticeships
r + Online-native
ea institutions Certifications
Lin
Early childhood education
Home schooling Se Problem-driven education
MOOCs lf-t
Digital content au
l+ gh
tia ts Superiority
Information
n en kill
s of skills
(& access) Higher education po
costs Ex
Known Now Next

3 The future through the
LEnS of information
Data is the engine of our digital world, but
where do innovations in storage, transfer
and logistics look set to drive us?

3.1 Context
Data lies at the heart of the progress of information Data volumes are exploding. And not only is the
technology. In classical computing, data is a series rate of data generated per individual increasing, but
of bits (binary digits, with a value of either 1 or so is the rate at which we share information.20 Yet
0) that a central processing unit (CPU) turns into increasingly, many wonder how, and to what extent,
newer and more useful information.19 Today, with their personal data is being shared. And who it is
help from next-generation networks that reduce being shared with, and to what end?
latency (the time it takes for data to travel from
one point to another), and cloud computing that Today, lawmakers, organizations, ethicists and
expands processing and storage capabilities, data many others worldwide are trying to envision data’s
drives just about everything. future. Will information remain centralized, as it
largely is today? Or will we shift toward a distributed
and open model of data distribution and sharing?
FIGURE 5 Information LEnS
Compute errors Ex
po
ne
nti ted
IoT sensor On-prem al
– tribu
Dis
costs infrastructure
Decentralized
Print-based data ownership
Lin Information
communication costs
ea
r– Open source
Credibility of information Compute
costs
Broadcast media Explainable AI
Trust in
institutions le
In-person sib
Pos
Always-on
interactions connectivity
Government rules Data
& regulations passports
Cyclical Probable Primacy of
data privacy
Data leaks Cybersecurity
Pos as a cornerstone
Analytics as a service sibl
Virtual work e
Big data Cloud/edge Compute Legacy black
Blockchain computing power
Mobile apps box solutions
r+ Internet of Things (IoT) Closed source

Security threats
ea & proprietary
Lin
Digital social interactions Ubiquitous connectivity Institutional
Ce data ownership
ntr
Social media AI/ML l+ aliz
influencers Data volume tia ed
n en
po
Automation Ex
AR/VR
Known Now Next

3.2 The probable
Always-on connectivity Data privacy informs how data is collected,

stored, managed and shared. To address growing
Gone are the days of laborious dial-up connections. consumer concerns, governments and institutions
Now, communicating and interacting online can in many countries around the world are enacting
involve actions as simple as a tap of the finger or a rules and regulations to better protect consumer
voice command, leading to substantial increases privacy. Individuals are also aiming to take
in data generation.21 For organizations, there is data ownership into their own hands through
a steady increase in reliance on analytics that decentralized systems based on distributed ledger
use enabling technologies22 such as sensors, technology (which records data in multiple locations
the Internet of Things (IoT: the internet-enabled without centralized administration).35
network of physical objects that can connect to and
exchange data with other devices and systems), While it is too soon to understand the longer-term
robotics and ambient computing – all of which rely implications of the approaches to data privacy
on the huge amounts of data that stem from our that organizations are now developing, a sense of
many digital interactions.23 urgency surrounding information security and trust
looks set to remain part of the bigger picture for the
As of 2020, 2.5 quintillion bytes of data were foreseeable future.
produced every day worldwide,24 and it is estimated
that by 2025, the generation of data per day will have Cybersecurity as a cornerstone
reached 463 exabytes (a nearly 200x increase).25
Human interaction is becoming increasingly digital, As digitization increases steadily across the globe,
in part due to the rise of social media. In just one there are consequent security concerns about
year, from 2019 to 2020, the number of people using the possibility of cyber-attacks. Not only are these
social media worldwide increased by 10% to 3.96 attacks growing in number but given our growing
billion,26 with more than two-thirds of all internet dependence on information technology their
users now active on social media.27 impacts are increasingly calamitous.36 The total
number of malware infections has risen over 600%
Organizations The enabling technologies that contribute to the since 2009,37 and in 2020 the number of records
are now developing growth of online interaction are also taking centre exposed through data leaks reached a staggering
a sense of urgency stage, including artificial intelligence (AI), machine 36 billion.38 Unsurprisingly, companies and
surrounding learning (ML),28 ubiquitous connectivity powered by individuals are taking greater precautions to protect
next-generation wireless technologies such as 5G,29 their data as a result.
information
and IoT devices.30 Coupled with the decreasing
security, and trust
costs for information31 and computation,32 these With new technologies shaping how data is
looks set to remain enabling technologies are gaining more traction collected, shared and stored, the landscape of
part of the bigger across a range of industries. cybersecurity will continue to change as new
picture for the threats emerge. For example, how will organizations
foreseeable future. We believe that, going forwards, as the gap react to cyber threats when today’s public-key
between the physical and the digital narrows, the encryption algorithms (keys to algorithms that
data volume of always-on connectivity will continue are discoverable and decryptable) are no longer
to grow steadily. secure?39 With its tremendous power, quantum
computing (which leverages quantum mechanics to
The primacy of data privacy enhance computational capacity) could eventually
undermine even the most advanced encryption
At the internet’s inception, it was hard to imagine the models. With this possibility in mind, to prepare
extent to which our lives would be intertwined with for what is coming down the road, some forward-
digital technologies. Perhaps for this reason, the thinking organizations are already developing
World Wide Web was not originally designed with quantum cryptography mitigations (technology to
security or trust in mind.33 Today, though, increasing avoid keys being decrypted, or hacked, at a rapid
numbers of users are focused on how much of their and exponential rate).40
personal information is shared online.34

3.3 The possible
Data ownership
Institutional VS Decentralized
Across the globe, what were formerly rather vague Today, the centralized institutions that collect personal
responsibilities relating to data ownership are now being data also actually own most of it.49 Due to the various
formalized into laws, rules and regulations. In 2018, the privacy and ethical concerns that surround third-party
EU implemented the General Data Protection Regulation ownership of personal information, many users have
(GDPR)41 to regulate the protection and privacy of taken a newfound interest in decentralized models.
data. That same year in the United States, the State
of California passed the California Consumer Privacy Grounded in blockchain technology, decentralized
Act (CCPA),42 giving consumers more control over the data ownership provides an immutable and verifiable
personal information that businesses collect about them.43 database that allows end-users to have full control over
In addition, public officials in Europe and Asia have who accesses their data. There are currently a number of
begun to call for the principles of data ownership to be blockchain projects underway that are seeking to increase
developed beyond the scope of existing privacy laws.44 transparency and end-user data ownership through the
creation of decentralized social media and web models.50
These rules on data privacy and protection may prove
especially helpful with the steady growth in the use of Decentralized ledger technology (the basis of transaction-
national Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems, which recording digital systems in which detail is recorded in
have seen a 46% increase in global adoption rates in multiple locations without centralized administration) is
the past five years.45 While there is little regulation today still in its infancy, and will need to overcome technological
that is specific to international data sharing for private and security obstacles before broad adoption is possible.
health apps,46 centralized health data and data sharing Nevertheless, we see decentralized technologies and
solutions have proven particularly essential with the onset approaches to data ownership playing a growing role in
of COVID-19,47 and companies are partnering with large the future as consumers become more concerned about
hospital systems to analyze patient data as part of the their personal data rights.
attempt to improve care.48
Technology Futures Projecting the possible, navigating what’s next 16

Approach to technological
advancements
Closed and proprietary VS Open and explainable

As our world increasingly relies on data to drive
computing algorithms and software programs, In an open sourced world, programs and algorithms are
understanding how to take a strategically effective publicly available and modifiable by the end user. This
approach to related technological advancements is model provides enhanced flexibility and lower associated
paramount to understanding the future of information. costs for the consumer but can sometimes lack the end
From a software perspective, a closed source approach user technical support that comes with most closed source
keeps source code encrypted and inaccessible to programs.55
the end user.51 This is the primary approach for many
popular apps, games and programs.52 Likewise, many Open source approaches offer developers greater
tech companies also use this approach to safeguard collaborative opportunities, and are gaining traction via
proprietary intellectual property. the likes of Google (whose Android OS is based on Linux,
an open source operating system), IBM (which acquired
As the amount of data collected, stored and managed open source company Red Hat in 2019) and Microsoft
grows, business and technology leaders are recognizing (which acquired the open-source code repository GitHub
that many legacy data management systems cannot in 2018).56
support their organizations’ AI/ML agendas. As such,
they are deploying new technologies and approaches Recent shifts to open source models are indicative
to capture, analyze and store data. In doing so, they of the increasingly collaborative nature of technology
are building the future-ready foundation that cognitive advancements, and of increased consumer interest in
machines will need to make real-time decisions at scale.53 understanding how the technologies we use both work
and impact our lives. However, there are still limiting
When it comes to AI, many current models rely on closed
challenges, such as funding for smaller platforms and
source scenarios in which humans cannot easily interpret
security vulnerabilities.
how the machine is making decisions.54 These “black
box” models stem from low-stakes AI/ML decision-
These open source concepts are also permeating
making (e.g. targeted advertizing, which builds a picture
the world of AI. In 2015, Google shifted its AI engine,
of consumers’ likes, personal information and previous
TensorFlow, to an open source model,57 allowing users
interactions to determine which products to share). But as
to access their suite of AI/ML search engine models.
use cases for AI/ML applications grow, so do concerns
Explainable AI, the more ethical sibling of black box AI
about AI ethics and bias. In some situations, even the
models, is providing developers with a window into how
programs’ designers cannot discern how their models are
their AI models make predictions.58
coming to certain conclusions.
With growing public awareness of and discussions While these models may not fully eliminate closed
around data privacy and ownership, the future of closed source and black box approaches, open and explainable
and proprietary approaches to software and emerging models will likely continue rising as regulatory efforts and
technologies could be hampered. conversations gear toward a more collaborative, open
and ethical mindset.

3.4
Maple’s story
By Amy Golem
18
I get out of bed to the intro of my favourite oldie: (or “C.C.”, as we stans lovingly call it). A titan in the
content world, C.C. employs the most followed and
Wake up in the mornin’ feelin’ like P Diddy… prosperous creators (including Hunter Brown, the
[Hey, what up girl?] guy behind TheDailyLife). Working for C.C. is all I’ve
Grab my glasses, I’m out the door, I’m gonna hit ever really wanted, and with my steadily growing
this city! follower base and unflagging determination, this
riddle could finally be my shot.
Kesha was a star back in the ‘10s. And is still a star First, though, I need to make some sales.
in my book. In my line of work, bolder is better. And I gesture an enthusiastic thumbs up to
no one was bolder than Ke$ha, back when she was register my ‘Like’ for the post, and grab my shoes.
still replacing the “s” in her name with that fierce I’m gonna hit this city!
dollar sign.
I’ve been working in the creator industry *
since I graduated from high school. Even as a kid,
I obsessed over OOTDs (Outfits Of The Day) and I walk out of my studio apartment and squint my
selfies from my favourite creators. That was back left eye to start a BeMe livestream on my glasses.
when we were puttering along on 3 x 5-inch glass Might as well try and cook up some content while
screens, and content creation seemed to be mostly I’m doing the job I actually get paid for.
indie influencers peddling hair gummies. I walk to the subway station near City Park
These days, people demand variety and jump and tap on a decidedly regular-looking olive-green
from platform to platform for fresh experiences. Lately, bench. A slew of metadata sprawls before me:
it’s all about WOTDs (Walks of the Day) on BeMe,
360-degree virtual walkabouts where you experience ID: CITY PARK BENCH #216
slices of life directly through the creator’s eyes. BUILT: 2032/04/04
This might sound like classic clout-chasing, LAST_PAINTED: 2035/04/04
but creators are big business. I did a bit on BeMe LAST_SERVICED: N/A
just yesterday, and some suit commented that GUESTS: 13,178
creators like me now capture almost 90% of HISTORY: GIFTED BY THE ROTARY CLUB
corporate ad spending. Not long after mass media IN MEMORY OF THE KAISER FAMILY. TAP
gave way to social media, commercials pretty much MENU TO LEARN MORE.
gave way to creators. Alright by me.
An alphabetized menu floats before my eyes – olive
I grab my augmented glasses from their bedside green, like the bench. Finger in mid-air, I scroll
charging station and groggily put them on. down the list of RECENT GUESTS, hoping to find
“MORNING, MAPLE!” someone who is someone. Browsing through, I
My glasses greet me with All Things Maple: don’t recognize a soul, let alone any celebrities
my weather, schedule and tailored celebrity news, that I could monetize with a new post. Just 13,000
and bright red notifications from my social media nobodies, including myself:
manager (a must-have app that helps me keep
track of my too-many-to-count platforms). NAME: MAPLE BRINKLY
I hurriedly gesture towards them. DATA PROVIDER ID: 9372843
The good news: my follower count is up SOCIAL TAG: @LIVINITUP243
14% overnight. Solid. LAST VISIT: 3 MONTHS AGO
The better news: my favourite account,
TheDailyLife, has uploaded an all-new puzzle post: I sigh deeply and slump down onto the bench. I
know I said my line of work is “content creator”,
FIND THE GLIMMER IN THE SUN. but I was lying. Sure, I’m trying to be a professional
JOIN THE PARTY. JOIN THE FUN. content creator, but until I make it, I need money.
And we all know the easiest way to make money
TheDailyLife is notorious for layering riddles into his these days is by becoming a data provider
WOTDs. This new outing seems to be taking place (“provider” for short).
in City Park. A solved riddle doubles as an exclusive My mom always told me to go to college,
invite to a party hosted by Content Conglomerate get a real job, and never ever stoop to selling my

data. But what does she know? “Real” jobs are overpays hundreds for anything vision-
boring. Who in their right mind wants to sit around related because her dad sold her eye exam
all day working as an admin (straight talk: robot data for $20 back in the 8th grade.
babysitter) for whatever shiny device BotCom Whatever; I need the cash. I push my
drops onto the market next? Being a provider is anxieties aside and use an exaggerated “come
the easiest and most flexible way to support myself here” gesture to digitally hail an auto-taxi.
while I build my career in content. Minutes later, I’m looking up at MediData’s
So this is what I do with my days. I mosey 20-story building. I once watched a BeMe tour of an
around, living my HashtagLife, and sell my digital old-fashioned skyscraper like this; there used to be
exhaust to third parties who use it for “research and tons of them back then, and all filled with people,
development”. At least I think that’s what they’re apparently. These days, the few buildings like this
using it for. that are left are filled with data centres, product
My mom was uptight about my line of work warehouses or, like this one is, provider dumps.
because of the “privacy wars” in the ‘20s. “I didn’t Eager to get this transaction over with, I
work two jobs for you to... sell yourself”, she’d say biometrically sign in at the kiosk, agree to the price,
to me. As if selling my data made me some kind and initiate the data transfer. As I wait, an ad flashes
of digital courtesan. I usually started tuning her out over the progress bar:
when the rants reached this point. “Okay, boomer”,
I’d say, not really understanding what the tag BIOMETRIC SPECIAL! PROVIDE RED &
meant, but knowing that she had weaponised it in YELLOW TO GET MORE GREEN!
arguments with her own parents.
My optical, aural, GPS, financial and social data?
Knowing I need to keep moving, I ditch the Have at it. My bodily fluids? Yeah, no thanks.
tragically unhip park bench and head to my I remember signing a terms and conditions
next destination. form when I first signed on as a provider for
“What’s my next stop on the D.D.P.?”, I MediData, but between you and me, if a laser beam
ask aloud, seemingly to no one. For those of you was aimed at my head I still couldn’t tell you what
fortunate enough to not be a provider: the Daily types of data they’re collecting from me, or even
Data Provider’s Sales Route is a crowdsourced what they’ll use it for. Ignorance is bliss, right?
list of entities that, on any given day, are offering
the best prices for personal data. The latest and DATA TRANSFER COMPLETE. FUNDS
greatest in Supply meets Demand. TRANSFERRED. HAVE A MEDIDATA DAY!
A map glows before my eyes, and my
cochlear implant responds: “TAKING YOU TO What does that even mean, a “MediData Day”?
MEDIDATA.” These companies need to realize that providers are
Even though this information is delivered to broke, not stupid. Time to shift gears and get to work
me in the voice of Harry Styles (I went retro with my on that riddle. I hail another auto back to City Park.
implant settings), I sigh. Another med.
Since at least the mid-2020s, medical *
data has been a particularly hot commodity. For
us providers, it’s typically one of the quickest and I revisit TheDailyLife’s post, re-reading the riddle and
biggest cash payouts. But selling my data to meds looking for clues as to where in the park the BeMe
freaks me out. I tell myself it’s for the greater good was taken.
– you know, helping some do-gooder AI better
analyze and respond to new security bugs – but FIND THE GLIMMER IN THE SUN.
sometimes it keeps me up at night. What’s the cost JOIN THE PARTY. JOIN THE FUN. ▶
to me? Who else buys this data from them? And will
they use it against me?
My friend Harper swears she [Maple’s story continues in the Annex, on p.50]

LEnS of locality
As digital connectivity accelerates, the
relationship between physical space and
everyday activity is becoming far more fluid

4.1 Context
According to British philosopher Alan Watts, “the real home; currently, 44% of people are doing so.59 Just
secret of life is to be completely engaged with what 7.9% of the global workforce worked from home
you are doing in the here and now.” Over the years, before the pandemic, although research suggests
the idea of “here and now” has evolved from mere that roughly 18% of workers have occupations
physical spaces to include virtual ones as well. It is and the technical infrastructure that would allow
now possible to define locality not only in terms of them to do so.60 Against this backdrop, we see
physical spaces but also in terms of the virtual ones two potential extremes in the future of locality.
in which individuals live, work, learn and connect. Illustrated in the graph below, the first – a virtual
extreme – represents an ongoing technological shift
Innovation and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that favours digital and virtual interaction over the
have accelerated shifts in how human beings physical; the second – a physical extreme – places
experience locality. For example, before the global value on physical experiences and an underlying
pandemic, only 17% of US employees worked from social discomfort with entirely virtual experiences.
FIGURE 6 Locality LEnS
Virtual work
stigma Ex
po
ne Metaverse
nti al
Corporate al tu experiences
Urban population campuses – Vir
growth rate Democratization
of entertainment
Health of
Affordable city housing Lin environment
ea Digital assets
r– Augmenting the
Value on “owning things” world (spatial tech)
IT costs
Cybersecurity Companion
bots
Space exploration
ible
Privacy
Barriers to s
reskilling Biosecurity Pos Lifestyle &
Virtual experiences
(education & entertainment) community values
Cyclical Probable
Smart cities Physical consumption At-home
Urbanization Pos (food, drink, sex) services
sibl
Online AR/VR/MR e
communities technology The gig economy
E-sports
Work-life Global Traditional
integration population romantic courtship
Virtual
influencers Online
education r+ Refugee migration Disillusionment
ea
Lin
with virtual
Value on Internet of Things (IoT)
“experiences”
Ubiquitous connectivity Ph Only “one true”
+ ysi reality
International
t ial ca
l
staffing Virtual relationships
n en
po
E-commerce/ Ex
web-enabled purchasing
Known Now Next

4.2 The probable
Large urban Hiring anyone from anywhere and cultural richness to be found in cities. This
metropolitan areas view has merit,73 even though both millennials (the
may continue to The COVID-19 pandemic has been a “trial by fire” generation defined as those currently aged 25–40)
spread, spurring moment for the long-entertained but seldom-tested and members of Generation Z (the generation from
concept of the virtual workplace.61 Interestingly, 6 to 24) are, according to recent research,74 now
innovation in
after a year of lockdowns and social distancing, more likely to communicate with each other digitally
transit, energy, 83% of employers in the US now say the shift than in person.
services and to remote work has been a success, and plan
infrastructure to implement flexible workplace policies in the The future of commuting will likely include driverless
that exist beyond future.62,63 C-suite executives and employees alike taxis that ferry professionals across cities on
traditional borders. are more enthusiastic about remote work than traffic-free roads at fast, synchronized speeds.75
ever before.64,65 Virtual corporations that would Though the increase in global urbanization is
only meet in person for bi-monthly “happy hours” expected to continue well into the future,76 we also
were once considered a pipedream. Now, for some foresee the growth of global suburbanization. Large
companies, this model may well become a standard urban metropolitan areas may continue to spread,
operational option. spurring innovation in transit, energy, services and
infrastructure that exist beyond traditional borders.77
These very recent shifts in cultural acceptance are
occurring in a world that is primed to capitalize Virtual experiences with material influence
on increased vocational flexibility: there is already
a massive global talent market for employers to Amazon Prime added 14 million new members
leverage. According to the 2020 World Investment in 2020 alone – an increase of 12.5% on the
Report from the United Nations Conference on previous year.78 In the same year, e-commerce in
Trade and Development (UNCTAD), employment in Canada and the US had a striking 129% year-
foreign affiliates increased 3% last year.66 Students on-year growth,79 and global digital streaming
are flocking to study abroad, and to international subscriptions grew by over 217 million members,
online programmes in droves.67,68 In the face of a 28.3% surge.80 To state the obvious, both
unprecedented demand for the skills of the future,69 shopping and video experiences that were once
we expect that organizations will increasingly tap anchored in brick and mortar (at Blockbuster or
into this global talent pool. your local supermarket) have now been replaced by
frictionless, virtual counterparts.
Smarter cities with healthier humans
The experiential economy is now in full swing, with
In 2020, there was a spike in the rate of American 76% of consumers preferring to spend money on
urbanites abandoning cities for the suburbs.70 experiences (e.g. music concerts, live sports and
Pandemic-induced concerns over biosecurity make travel) rather than material possessions.81 After the
the likes of crowded metro systems considerably COVID-19 pandemic, it will likely take some time for
less appealing, and suburbs considerably more communities to return to being entirely comfortable
so.71 However, another catalyst for this radical with in-person events. One study found that 66% of
change is that only 13% of the world’s cities have people won’t return to in-person events without first
affordable housing.72 People are looking to the having a vaccine.82 And even before the pandemic,
suburbs (and beyond) for space, affordability, health eSports’ parabolic investment growth of $4.5
and prosperity. billion in 201883 indicated that a plethora of niche
virtual experiences and communities look set to
Advocates of urban living argue that no suburb increasingly replace in-person gatherings.
will ever compete with the productivity, efficiency

4.3 The possible
The virtual revolution
More is more: the Metaverse VS Less is more: stoic simplicity
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Many of our virtual and digital connectors – social
engagement with social media has increased 61% media,92 online gaming,93 video conferencing94 –
across 30 global markets.84 Meanwhile, digital have surged in popularity since the beginning of
identities are on the rise worldwide,85 and virtual the COVID-19 pandemic. Although these tools are
relationships (romantic or otherwise) are fast designed to connect us, they don’t seem to be
becoming a necessity.86 Growing numbers of people working the way we expected. One study found that
are moving their entertainment, friendships, and 34% of millennials were “always or often” lonelier due
romantic courtships to digital and virtual worlds. to the quarantines and social distancing demanded
by emergency public health policy.95 Despite having
Couple these cultural shifts with the rapid advancement access to great virtual tools, many people feel that
of digital reality technologies,87 and the projected growth social distancing has proven that digitally-enabled
in augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) markets reality is a poor substitute for in-person socialization.
to $1,274 billion in 2030 (a robust 42.9% compound
annual growth rate),88 and we have a compelling case for Additionally, a recent study of social media users found
a replacement of the physical world with a virtual one. that over 24.4% of individuals had, at some point, deleted
Similar to the setting of the sci-fi movie Ready Player their social accounts.96 With renewed concerns over
One, a VR-enabled Metaverse (a “virtual world” enabling mental health, many people are choosing a “digital detox”
millions of people to share 3D digital experiences) could over connecting online with friends.97 Some studies even
present unique and complex experiences in all facets of describe social media as “more addictive than cigarettes
life: business, education and entertainment. and alcohol”.98
Today, we have eye-opening disruptions such as To complicate matters, the risk of cyber-attacks and leaks
Google Expedition VR,89 UCLA Neuroscience90 of personal data seems to be on the increase.99 In a world
and VR treatments for PTSD.91 Tomorrow, we with more data gathering and more available information
may see an even more dynamic and enhanced online to keep us dependent, people may flee from
world through VR and AR Metaverses. networked services in order to intentionally simplify.

The physical resurgence
The spatial web VS Reality redux
Internet of Things (IoT) devices are cheaper and more In the past decade, spending in the US on live
capable now than ever before,100 and more powerful, experiences and events (relative to total spending) has
too, thanks to near-instant 5G connections. During the substantially increased.105 Some reports released just prior
third quarter of 2019, the number of 5G connections to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic projected
globally grew 329%, to over 17.7 million connections.101 that the global live music market would accelerate at a
When paired with AI algorithms, robotics and big data 9% compound annual growth rate into 2024,106 signalling
systems IoT devices have the potential to analyze, an increased consumer preference for “being somewhere”
predict, recommend and overlay answers to almost instead of “beaming anywhere”.
every day-to-day challenge presented in both our
personal and business lives.102 At its simplest, a driverless In looking at the quality of our interactions with the
taxi could set your desired music, window tint and surrounding environment, studies have demonstrated
AC temperature the moment you hop in the car. the importance of physical presence. It has been
shown that proper exposure to sunlight and meaningful
At its best, the AR cloud has the potency to launch interaction with nature creates happier, healthier107,108
a near-term revolution in the spatial web by mapping and more fulfilling lives.109 Interacting with other
everything we do in the real world to digital information humans and creating meaningful relationships
and enhancements. As one study puts it, the spatial also contributes positively to our health.110
web would “fully erase the line between digital and
physical objects”.103 Surgeons would, for example, It’s not our projection that most people will entirely forego
perform diagnostics and surgery from another part of virtual tools – be it a convenient smartphone, an “always-
the world thanks to advanced haptics (technology that on” spatial web that relays constant information to us, or
creates an experience of touch), precision robotics an AI that predicts our every need.111 Rather, we anticipate
and enhanced 3D digital modelling, or students that, as virtual alternatives become more available, more
would learn about blood cells by exploring the human people will struggle in determining when to choose reality.
bloodstream virtually.104 The possibilities are endless.

4.4
Frank’s story
S
in tudy A
AI fin iss I and
alg ds
ori bi ue th
thm as of e
s bia
s
By Lucas Erb
26
My car arrived at 7am sharp. As I was finishing looking pretty upset, and a large group of strangers
breakfast, its chimes became louder and somehow who I would have thought had wandered in off the
less polite, as if to say, Hurry it up in there! I hated street if it weren’t for the green “auth” dots that my
to keep people waiting, but there was a perverse augmented glasses floated over their heads.
pleasure in deliberately ignoring a machine. I took At first, I was curious. Had I missed a memo
a lingering sip of coffee for good measure before for an All Hands? But as I walked across the office
walking out the door. floor, I started to feel uneasy. Everyone seemed to
“GOOD MORNING, MR. DALTON THANK be watching me as I walked, and whispering.
YOU FOR RIDING WITH CITYMOVE.” Yeah, yeah, “…two hours, as if!...”
get on with it, I thought. “WE ARE HEADING TO “…I never thought they actually would...”
2211 NORTH 1ST STREET. IS THIS CORRECT?” “…Parker fired? In what world...”
“Yers,” I mumbled through the last bits of I soon realized that everyone’s eyes were on
my breakfast. I put on my seatbelt – a regulatory me, their stares converging as my assistant, Jon,
vestige from the days of human drivers – and the stole me off into a huddle room.
car took off. “What the...” I started, partly as a question,
mostly as a declaration of disbelief. Jon was
We cruised carefully through our neighbourhood, always consummate, composed professional - well
before making our way to the entrance of the dressed, well mannered, well everything’d. But not
e-lane. As we shuffled into the fleet of hundreds today. Today he looked a bit crumpled, and that
of Autopods, I reached for the control panel. instantly had me incredibly worried.
Gradually, our speed increased, until we matched Looking me straight in the eyes, and
that of everyone else on the road: over 190 choosing his words with obvious care, Jon said,
kilometres per hour. Though all of the vehicles were cutting off my question, “It’s the Gekko. We have a
moving so fast, the ants-marching precision of their problem.”
networked programming made their passengers
feel they were stationary relative to those in other *
vehicles. My neighbouring commuters were always
far too close for my liking, certainly too close for “Where the hell have you been?” Stacey barked
privacy. As usual, I dimmed my windows. from behind her monitor.
My ten-minute journey into the city was As our CEO, Stacey enjoyed unrivalled
peaceful, a much-needed buffer between the beige authority, but her gravitas lay in her unparalleled
suburbs and the colourful city. Back when the capacity for candour. I tried making a point of
virtual revolution first began, it was hard to figure staying on her good side.
out what was best done where. Doctor’s visits, “I, uh…”
money transfers, grocery shopping? I was more Stacey quickly cut me off: “Frank, how is it
than happy to move these activities to the virtual that my own VP of Algorithms has no idea what the
comfort of my own bed. algorithms are doing?!” she demanded.
But meeting with friends at a pub, a Now I was really afraid. Jon had said there
caffeinated stroll around the city gardens, or was an issue with the Gekko. I was secretly hoping
celebrating weddings and anniversaries – these it had been a technical one but an algorithmic issue
felt worthy of the time and energy required to be meant real problems. Model drift? PII leak?
physically present. My rule of thumb had become Data manipulation?
“Action? Be there. Transaction? Beam there.” Last year, our largest shareholder had forced
the board to spend a cool $40 million implementing
* a new HR optimization bot. Named after a fictitious
Wall Street character and priced to match (the
Action? It was looking like that would be an project ate up nearly twice our annual algo budget),
understatement today. When the lift doors opened the “Gekko” was trained to maximize shareholder
I realised that I had never seen this many people in value through enhancing organizational efficiency,
our office before. There were Hannah, Valerie and removing costs and focusing on earnings. The
Levi, teammates who lived outside the city, nearly whole MBA-flavoured enchilada.
two hours away by hyper-rail. They hardly ever Although the Gekko technically reported to
came in. I noticed Parker over by the greenhouse, our Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO), it had

only made a few anodyne recommendations since count. “Do you remember last year when that bank
its go-live. A gentle warning to underperforming had to walk back 0% interest rates for its female
sales staff here, the placement of an online ad customers? Or a few months ago when those
recruiting to fill skills deficits there. The procurement cobots at the factory downtown got called out for
department, to the surprise of everyone, even got a ‘bot-splaining’ general information to employees on
raise. All in the name of the Gekko’s singular goal: H1-B visas?”
profitable growth. Stacey nodded impatiently. “Get to the point,
Maybe the algo had just given Pat’s Frank.”
legal team a raise too? I could see that pissing “I think the Gekko might be biased.”
everyone off… Biased – the word hung in the air between
Stacey interrupted my inner monologue. us. Bias was the biggest issue for people working
“Your program ordered a 30% pay cut for the entire with algorithms. If the Gekko was indeed biased,
company, including you and me! It deemed our ‘fair we should be able to re-engineer its decision-
market value’ to be ‘significantly lower than legacy making process to isolate the discrepant variable.
HR estimates’.” But I would need some help.
“It can do that?” Even as the VP of “I need to head back to my home office to
Algorithms, I had no idea that the program had that get some privacy – I want to call in a few favours. I’ll
kind of autonomy. let you know what I dig up.”
At this point, smoke was practically pouring “So you’re going to leave me here with the
out of Stacey’s ears. “And to top it all off, the algo torches and pitchforks?”, Stacey asked.
has requested that half of our staff be recharacterized “Hey, I only get paid for two hours a day.
from full-time to hourly, ‘in recognition of their implied As far as I’m concerned, this is overtime”, I joked,
productivity metrics to date’.” before hurrying out the door, struggling to disguise
Before I could get a word in edgeways, my unease.
Stacey steamrollered on.
“Two hours a day, Frank. The Gekko believes *
half of us add only two hours of value per day!”
My mind was racing. I was increasingly On the Autopod ride back home, I must
certain that my team was to somehow to blame for have skimmed through a hundred angry emails:
this catastrophe. You really think I only put in two hours? You
Stacey continued on: “Jessica resigned an don’t even know my name!
hour ago”, she said. “And guess who, or in this case Do you have any idea how this will impact my
what, battlefield-promoted itself to interim CHRO, family?
Frank?” I have never been more disgusted by an
I knew better than to answer that question. organization.
Stacey’s glare suddenly softened. “But Reading them broke me. Even though
what I don’t understand is why? Why did some these employment changes could technically be
members of our team get the hourly cut but not reversed in the future, in the short term real people
others? I looked at the data and it seems random, were going to suffer. A breach of trust, however
nonsensical even.” temporary, is a breach of trust. It was going to be a
I was equally perplexed. Could it be that the Herculean effort to untangle this mechanized mess,
algo had seen something in-market that justified the but I knew I had to act, and act quickly.
wage decreases and cut in hours? Doubtful – I had
looked at market adjustment data just last week. Or *
maybe the cuts were meant for some other outfit
with the same name as ours? “Dial Ryan from Digital Forensics,” I shouted into my
Or maybe… home office as I paced the hallway just outside. One
“Stacey, I need to go.” of my smart speakers picked up the command,
Her softened face suddenly went taut again. coordinating with all my other smart devices to
“Are you kidding? I have a meeting with the board optimize the processing time for my request. ▶
tonight, and we are going to need answers.”
I took a slow breath, making the seconds [Frank’s story continues in the Annex, on p.51]

LEnS of the economy
In the face of finite physical resources,
the world needs well-informed strategic
responses to avoid an unsustainable future

5.1 Context
The economy LEnS considers finite raw materials of resources, the ways in which we embrace
and their development into higher-order economic technological innovations can often matter more
outputs. Resources (energy, infrastructure, clean than the technologies themselves. Will our collective
water, etc.) are obviously necessary for humans future be characterized by abundance, with
to both survive and thrive. “Economy” covers the resource availability and economic growth rising
value-added creations that are developed from along with the tide of increasing global technological
those materials (jobs, trade, production, etc.). prowess? Or, will we find ourselves in a world of
scarcity, where global inequality and tribalism result
In a world where technological change is from a dearth of access to resources?
constantly disrupting the availability and usefulness
FIGURE 7 Economy LEnS
Ex
Primacy of offices po
ne ce
Four-day
Child mortality nti an work week
al d
rates – un
Information Ab Universal basic
Inaccessibility of technology costs income normalization
clean drinking water
Lin
ea Unfettered global trade
Trust in Malnutrition r–
institutions Compute The rising tide
Fertility rates Careers costs
Renewables
Traditional Global boom
9-to-5s Supremacy of fiat money The liquid workforce
ible
extreme poverty
s
Pos Gigs, not careers
Software (continues)
International eating the world
Desire for truth
Cyclical trade agreements
Economic cycles Probable Clean energy Choose where you work
Dependence on science Taxes growth
Precision medicine
Pos goes mainstream
sibl
Real estate Life expectancy Anxiety & Battery e Humans working
costs depression storage Energy crises with AI
Electric vehicle & shortages
Hydrocarbon usage Bandwidth
adoption The new Gilded Age
Universal basic r+ Mandated
income pilots ea Connected Humans working local trade
Lin
Gigs
devices against AI
Global healthcare Mass
spending Artificial Sc unemployment
+ arc
ial
Global intelligence
temperature t ity
nen Neo-autarkies
po
Cryptocurrency
adoption Ex
Known Now Next

5.2 The probable
Software (continues) to eat the world not just of how we work but also of societal
expectations about why we work and for how long.
The exponential rise of artificial intelligence usage,112
bandwidth capacity113 and spend on IT and Clean energy growth
computing114 signal that software advancements
will continue to drive and enable global economic Fossil fuel consumption has risen by 9% globally
output. As the costs of IT and computer purchasing over the past decade, with roughly 84% of primary
continue to fall115 (i.e. we have an ability to purchase energy coming from coal, oil and gas in 2019.122 It
more with less), we expect to see not only more is an understatement to say that our energy needs
grassroots innovation in this sector, but also more are increasing. Against a backdrop of exponential
adoption, across different industries. growth in connected devices123,124 and rapid
industrialization,125 our current energy supply will be
Against a The liquid workforce limited in its ability to support future demand.
backdrop of
The rise of the “gig worker” is helping shift the Currently, renewable and low-carbon energy
exponential growth
established pattern for work from the traditional sources show increasing commercial viability126
in connected
“9 to 5” to “whenever suits my preference”.116 and consumer adoption.127 Moreover, advances
devices, and rapid This rapid move towards flexibility is affecting in battery technology, such as solid-state electric
industrialization, not just the gig-work sector but also traditional vehicle (EV) batteries,128 are paving the way for
our current energy companies, as they must now manage employees’ an EV-led future.129 Although non-automobile
supply will be increasing demands for work styles that allow EV adoption is expected to lag behind that of
limited in its ability for personal plasticity. More people are rejecting automobiles,130,131 we anticipate that alternative
to support future the once-dominant principle of “one career, one sources of clean energy will further fuel a gradual
demand. company”117 in favour of the concept of a “liquid shift into increasingly “clean” transportation.
workforce”118 that supports their changing needs. Although traditional oil and gas sectors will continue
Add to this dynamic two more factors: the increase to comprise a large portion of our energy supply
in pilots for a universal basic income,119,120 and a for the foreseeable future, it is probable that clean
continuous increase in the elderly as a proportion energy adoption will continue to increase over time.
of population.121 Both trends signal reconfigurations

5.3 The possible
Sustainability
Both kinds of “green” VS A return to “normal”
Advancements in renewable energy sources, alongside Rising fossil fuel consumption and deforestation
broader societal trends such as falling birth rates,132 will have led to a rise in global temperatures, at a
lend a significant hand in the fight against climate change. rate of roughly 0.18°C per decade since 1981.138
Although an imperceptible rise of 0.18°C per
Although devastating in many different ways, decade might seem marginal, even almost irrelevant,
the COVID-19 pandemic has also brought a to us as human beings, it is already having an
temporary decline in CO2 emissions, with a nearly impact on the world’s ecological systems.
17% decline by early April 2020 as compared to
2019 levels.133 International travel alone declined A return to “normal” in a post-pandemic world would
by 70% from January to August in 2020.134 The further accelerate the undesirable march towards a rise in
duration of this contraction is expected to remain global temperatures.139 Although nearly half (48%) of US
closely related to the severity of the pandemic. employees currently working at home for their employer
have said they would like to continue working remotely
How we choose to embrace sustainable practices in after the COVID-19 crisis is over, that also means that just
a post-COVID world will be pivotal in our fight against over half would like to continue commuting to physical
climate change. It is possible that we will return to travel- office spaces for work.140
intense, commuter lifestyles that help fuel climate change.
However, it is also possible that we will refuse to return Travel to and from work is also just one part of the
to our pre-pandemic version of “normal”, instead forging complex picture on emissions. In 2016, emissions from
a new sustainable path forwards for our world, that does transport made up only 16.2% of global greenhouse gas
not sacrifice corporate profitability. emissions.141 To make significant headway on fighting
climate change, emissions will have to be cut across
Many companies have already created policies that other categories such as “industry” and “energy use
promise to help enable the move towards a new in buildings”, which account for 24.2% and 17.5% of
“normal”;135,136 for example, San Francisco’s largest greenhouse gas emissions respectively.142
private employer, business software company Salesforce,
announced in February this year that after COVID-19 To paint a rosy picture for a future grounded in
restrictions are lifted it will let most of its employees work sustainability is to ignore reality. Advancements in clean
from home two days a week.137 The extent to which energy show promise,143 but technological advancements
more companies and governments follow suit will be a without proper adoption will likely leave us no better off
significant determining factor in our collective fight against than when we started.
climate change.

Economic opportunity
The new Gilded Age VS A rising tide
In the 19th century, the US experienced a period of Over the last few decades, technological innovations have
unprecedented economic expansion, which not only driven improvements in supplies of clean water, access to
produced huge profits but also increased income proper nutrients, and the quality of healthcare.
inequality and class conflict.144 Dubbed the “Gilded Age”,
this era shows some flavour of the world today.145 In 2000, over 38% of the global population did not have
access to clean drinking water.155 Just 15 years later, that
Globally, although extreme poverty has consistently fallen percentage had dropped to 29%.156 Although there is
for decades, it is expected to have risen again in 2020.146 much progress to be made, especially in regions such
This is because the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted as Sub-Saharan Africa,157 over time a greater share of our
the effectiveness of efforts aimed at continually reducing global population is expected to have access to clean
the causes of extreme poverty,147 even if the overall drinking water.
rate has continued to decline.148 It is uncertain whether
extreme poverty (especially in locations such as South In looking at the regional daily supply of food calories
Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, regions that together are from 1993 to 2013, all global regions have continued
home to nearly 85% of the world’s poorest people149) will increasing their food available for consumption, with
continue to decline (albeit slowly) or if a cyclical pattern increases most significant in Africa and Asia.158
will be established, with rises and falls pegged to the
current state of global affairs. As for healthcare, decreasing fertility rates,159 decreasing
child mortality rates,160 and increasing life expectancy161
Extreme poverty is one measure for evaluating economic all indicate real progress is being made on improving
prosperity; the concentration of capital is another. Just global health. Although healthcare spending continues
as extreme poverty is regionally distributed, so too are to expand faster than the economy (between 2000 and
the levels of capital concentration in different countries.150 2017, global health spending in real terms grew by 3.9%
Although it would be an oversimplification to suggest a year, while the world’s economy grew 3.0% a year162),
income inequality is on the rise everywhere, some of the breakthrough advancements in gene sequencing,163
world’s most populous countries (the US, China, India and 3D-printed organs,164 and artificial intelligence applications
Indonesia) have seen a rise in income inequality over the in life sciences165 indicate a future of “more bang for your
last 25 years.151 Pair this with falling trust in institutions,152 buck” on healthcare spending.
rising real estate costs,153 and mass unemployment as a
result of the pandemic154, and declarations of similarities
with the “new Gilded Age” no longer appear tenuous.

5.4
Alex’s story
By Ruth Hickin
carbon neutrality
surveillance
https://
4
34
“Alex, what are you thinking? Do you want me to oligopolies ceded power to the people, who took
respond? The President needs an outcome in time legal control of their own data. This, in turn, created
for the 5pm press conference. They asked if we room for new businesses and services to grow.
have a deal… Alex, you need to make a call on this. Little did I know how pointless most of my
Do we have a deal?” graduate studies would end up being. Six months
into my first job, I was recruited by the Department
* of Defense. They needed someone with an expert
understanding of the internet and cross-border
When I was young I never considered myself data flows to join a top-secret new project. Once
a political person or really even a technical person. my security clearance went through, I was invited
So I can’t quite believe I’m now a well-known to attend a morning briefing with the new team. I
cybersecurity expert – I still pinch myself when I stared across the room at other people who looked
get interview requests via the President’s press as unsure as I felt about being there.
office. My career started just after I wrote my thesis The briefing centred on a staggering
on the movement that brought six billion users onto revelation: our team leaders told us that for years
the internet in the early 21st century, an event that a small, top-secret group had been analyzing
occured in tandem with open cross-border data major decisions taken in our country and the
flows. The progress we’d made in the digital arena degree to which they had been influenced by
was truly staggering; it convinced me I needed to online manipulation, enabled by a significant
pursue a career that maintained the integrity of the level of compromised access to our data. It was
hugely expanded internet. clear that the degree of manipulation and cyber
I’m proud to live in a world with free data espionage was more significant than we could ever
movement, carbon neutrality and genuinely global have imagined. The data of virtually every citizen in
trade for all. I think about my cousin Mel, who lives the country had been compromised, from welfare
in East Africa and develops IP for robotic arms. The benefits and healthcare records, to the state grid.
materials are produced somewhere near China but I didn’t believe it. “How can you be sure?”
are paid for and 3D-printed by customers here in I asked, anxiously. Looking back, this was a
France, and around the world. Thanks to a complete rather stupid question. Ongoing advances in
overhaul of global trade agreements and taxation technology, especially quantum and fact-checking
made possible by the Breton Woods for Tech algorithms, had made it relatively easy to discern
Agreement, the economic benefits of this supply how widespread and damaging the misinformation
chain go to my cousin, the materials producer and that targets specific groups is. My next question
to France – it’s a legal, transparent process executed was just as underwhelming: “We have to let people
securely in a blockchain-based system. know. What are we doing about this?”
In some ways, the world is simpler now, yet How naïve I was.
in other ways, it’s far more complicated. But it’s hard “Do you think anyone cares?” responded
to remember what it was like only a few years ago. one of the team leaders, coolly. “We’ve been
seeing this for years. What we need to do now is
* understand which countries represent the greatest
threats to us, and what their agendas are. Then we
I was just out of graduate school and starting a job can decide how to act on that information.”
at the Global Internet Alliance. I was passionate I didn’t recognize it at that moment, but
about creating an open and free internet, one that this meeting marked the beginning of a decade of
mirrored the better world we were trying to build. change that would profoundly transform the way
At the time, I was inspired by the progress some people around the world interact with each other.
nations were making on opening up borders to Our team leaders said that our first task was
enable free trade and more effective data use. This to eliminate immediate threats. For years, they
ultimately lay the groundwork for the incredible explained, we had been “putting out a welcome
strides we’ve made since in trying to achieve carbon mat” to our internet and opening the door to
neutrality and eliminating infectious diseases. intruders. This had to stop.
I thought that the internet was going that way
too, especially when government took on a bigger I led the team charged with identifying “bad
role in regulating it. Following that historic shift, data actors” – whether they were governments, political

or criminal organizations, or individuals – who in a unified, global internet since.
meant us harm. One by one, we began building That is, perhaps, until today.
walls to keep out those we didn’t want to be part
of the internet we existed within. Our mission was *
to protect the wellbeing of our citizens. I wanted to
give my children the gift of a securely benign internet It all started with one video call, president to
– one offering learning, greater communication and president. Two leaders decided to rekindle a
useful insights. I also wanted to connect my rural relationship. They reasoned that although the
parents to the rest of the world, and give them world might have 18 internets, it only had three
a voice. This fight was for them and for freedom internet superpowers, and that they needed to
(within limits). work better together.
Another taskforce focused on fighting One of the biggest downsides to our progress
fire with fire. They ran campaigns that forced our in online safety has been the decline in our progress
enemies to confront uncomfortable truths about the on data sharing for societal benefit. One of the most
way they’d been operating. This taskforce worked amazing advances that happened when I was a child
closely with our press office, but other than that, – one that I remain passionate about today – was
they kept a tight lid on their work. If my German the ability to share data to achieve better insights.
grandpa had known about it, I think he would have Data sharing was a game changer. It made our
called this work “propaganda”. But to us, it was just carbon-neutral world possible. It drives my sister’s
one of many lines of defence – for bigger threats thriving agriculture business. And, thanks to precision
we had a cyber division that could take out power medical treatments tailored around sharing a patient’s
supplies to stop conflict before it starts. genomic data, my mother is now cancer-free. What
Of course, we couldn’t have the Europe other global challenges could we help solve with this
we’d built over the past 100 years without co- move towards greater internet sovereignty?
operating with our neighbours and building those Since the new administration came in,
walls together. Sadly, global political unification there has been more internet-related collaboration
around the internet was never going to be possible, across borders. And following the We the People
so alliances had to be built around shared belief movement, the idea of internet passports now
systems, and with national and regional sovereignty seems feasible.
in mind. What we ended up with wasn’t perfect, but
it worked from a communication perspective and *
didn’t necessarily get in the way of trade.
We always thought the splinternet would When the two leaders hung up on the video call,
be binary: us versus them, government versus my boss – the President – tasked me with turning
businesses. But surprisingly, the biggest binary the discussed vision of internet cooperation into
pair was always the North Americans and the reality. My mind began racing. Could we really make
Europeans. With one New Yorker and one Londoner it work? How could we bring other countries and
as parents, I easily understood the cultural political leaders to the table? Once they were there,
differences that exist between different parts of could we trust them?
the globe. My mom and dad could never agree on The work hasn’t been easy. I have three
where to draw the line between free speech and children now and am constantly trying to balance
hate speech, on the merits of free education versus their safety with the potential of technology to
paid education, on the role of government (or not), benefit our society. Yes, there are potential risks in
and importantly, on privacy. bringing new countries into our global alliance, but
In a global, data-driven world, what exactly there are potential benefits, too. I always ask myself
is privacy? GDPR set the tone a long time ago in the same three questions, to help balance the
Europe and has been the cornerstone of how we trade-offs we know we’ll have to accept:
think about and manage data ever since – especially
what is considered personal data. California tended 1. What are the potential threats to national security?
to agree with us, which is why we brought them into 2. What are the biggest benefits to our citizens and
the European Internet Alliance. Yet with many other the world? ▶
groups or regions, seemingly intractable differences
remained. We haven’t been able to all live together [Alex’s story continues in the Annex, on p.52]

LEnS of education
Educational norms relating to where and
how people learn, and at what point in
their career, are rapidly being dissolved

6.1 Context
Famously dubbed “our passport to the future” by as “institutional credentials”, the kind of structured
Malcolm X, 166 education can be broadly defined education traditionally offered by school systems
as the way individuals learn and how we teach the and universities will remain in place, but with new
skills they need to build successful careers. tools and teaching methods. In the second, more
disruptive scenario, traditional education with its
Every day, in countries all around the world, emphasis on formal accreditations will give way to a
people make a conscious decision to learn more meritocratic system of “self-taught skills” that
something new, using formats and programmes prizes demonstrable competency, real-life problem-
such as digital and physical resources, skills- solving and the creation of measurable value.
based training and self-paced training to absorb
information. Advanced modes of accessing Despite all the unknowns, several trend lines that
information are driving dramatic shifts in the ways have been established over the last decade help
people learn and institutions teach, a trend that bring into sight futures that, although uncertain, are
is likely to lead to the development of two future still substantially plausible.
educational norms. In the first, which we describe
FIGURE 8 Education LEnS
Ex
Student
po als
attention span ne enti
Rote
memorization
nti
al lc red Dominance
of diplomas
– io na
Physical
titut AI teacher’s
Physical content classrooms Ins assistant
Lin
ea
Population with r– Increased number
no education Textbooks of institutions
Publisher profits Centralized
learning
MBA applicants le Virtual learning tools
International
sib
exchange Pos Education
Lifelong learning
meritocracy
Cyclical Probable
Income sharing
Gig economy agreements
Focus on liberal arts & gig learning Rise of
Pos nano degrees
Microschools Demand for STEM sibl AR/VR/MR
Competency-based e
education College learning
Social-emotional learning degrees Decentralized
learning
Focus on
group learning Education as priority Apprenticeships
+ Online-native
e ar institutions Certifications
Lin
Early childhood education
Home schooling Se Problem-driven education
MOOCs lf-t
Digital content au
a l+ gh Superiority
Information e nti ts
kill of skills
(& access) Higher education pon s
costs Ex
Known Now Next

6.2 The probable
Personalizing education doctor, and go to medical school for seven years”,

it could equally be, “I’m interested in science, and
If the “gig working” economy continues to increase want to explore a short course on biology”; acting
in the future, so too will the “gig learning” economy. on those intents leads to a very different skillset, as
The pace of technological change in the workplace well as requiring a different upfront investment.
is unlikely to slow, with current projections making
assertions such as “65% of children entering Digitized and virtualized content
primary school today will ultimately end up working
in completely new job types that don’t yet exist.”167 The demand for both physical classrooms and
Thus, in tomorrow’s careers, lifelong learning will physical textbooks is falling exponentially,172,173 and
become a necessary means of staying relevant.168 as an inverse mirror to these twin trends, the market
for digital classrooms is growing exponentially. One
Over time, enough people investing in lifelong illustration of this is the 10% year-on-year growth of
learning might naturally encourage a decoupling of massive open online courses (MOOCs).174 Digitizing
degree and diploma programmes. This decoupling and virtualizing education is certainly economically
could support the expansion of “nanodegrees” (a efficient, but there are a few other potent incentives
“project and skills-based educational credential”169 in this transformation.
delivered entirely online, which is far quicker to
obtain than a conventional degree) into areas Today our access to information from around the
of study beyond computer science, allowing world is unparalleled in scale to any other period
individuals to more easily keep pace with a rapidly in human history.175 In addition, there is certain
Instead of changing skills landscape. Although the number evidence that globally, attention spans - especially
students asking of conventional learning institutions continues to in young learners - have decreased dramatically.176
themselves, “What rise,170 the cost of the tuition they provide is also These trends create a rich soil for innovations in two
increasing to match.171 These rising prices could key attention-holding learning technologies: digital
do I want to be
make institutional education unattainable for future classrooms and AR/VR learning experiences. For
when I grow up?” generations, forcing students to re-evaluate the example, one European business school now has
they might very value of traditional accreditation. Instead of students a “100% digital campus”,177 and companies such
well ask instead, asking themselves, “What do I want to be when I as Google Expeditions VR,178 VR Education179 and
“Which job looks grow up?” they might very well ask instead, “Which zSpace AR180 are pioneering the future of a range of
interesting as a job looks interesting as a starting point?” So if the different AR and VR learning experiences.
starting point?” answer to the first question was, “I want to be a

6.3 The possible
The virtual revolution
Proven competency VS Tertiary degrees
For millennia, students have looked to expensive, Traditional institutions offer something that no informal
formal institutions to access knowledge and train education can: respect as a result of the institution’s historic
for their desired profession. Recently however, reputation, as well as a de facto “seal of approval” for any
Harvard Business Review identified a severe “skills student that graduates with honours. The University of
gap” caused by the inability of formal education to Oxford, founded nearly 1,000 years ago,188 is as influential
keep pace with technological advancement.181 now as it ever has been, with an endowment of over £6.1
billion and an annual budget of £2.14 billion.189 Finances
As employers are increasingly confronted with the aren’t the only aspect of traditional education that is
need for people with rare skills, they may become flourishing, however. By 2030, the number of young people
more comfortable with non-traditional, decentralized completing a tertiary degree across OECD and G20
sources of knowledge, with candidates proving aptitude countries is expected to increase to 300 million, up from
through real-world projects and problem solving.182 137 million in 2013.190 To accommodate this demand, it’s
Google, Apple and Netflix are a collection of the most reasonable to expect a continued increase in institutional
successful tech companies in the world, and yet they capacity, as well as the number of traditional institutions.191
do not require employees to have tertiary education.183
“Gig work” further disrupts the traditional rules of As digital learning disrupts long established pedagogies,
recruitment by enabling a company to hire a single respected institutional brands may increase their
employee with specialized skills instead of a team of capacity and expand their enrollment in a wide
well-rounded, institutionally-trained generalists.184 variety of online courses. It is reasonable to expect
that bolstered global interest in virtual attendance
Aside from a recent rise in applications that is largely at the world’s leading universities,192 as well as
attributed to the uncertainty caused by the arrival of technologies including AI, will help traditional institutions
COVID-19, the number of MBA applications is overall personalize learning and maintain their stellar track
following a downward trend in the US.185,186 Demand record as they scale to a broader audience.193
for competency-based education is increasing steadily
and perhaps will replace formalized college degree Institutions have survived and thrived through centuries of
programmes.187 If these trends continue – both the advancements in locomotion, electricity and computation.
relaxation of corporate requirements and a decrease Therefore, it is reasonable to expect this resilience will
in demand for institutional education – we believe the continue in the face of current shifts in demand, and that
future of work could be increasingly characterized by those institutions will readily adapt to the rapidly growing
more meritocratic, skill-based hiring, and by a focus on international market for education.
apprenticeships and other forms of on-the-job training.

Financing the future
Alternative financing VS Traditional loans
The meteoric rise in tuition costs and increasing demand The cost of tuition is rising. However, this rise is justified
for certain skillsets means that the development of by the market, as there is an increased demand for
alternative financing in higher education appears likely. courses at higher education institutions.199 Prices don’t
The cost of tuition is rising globally “eight times faster seem to be deterring students: in 2015, in the UK it
than wages”,194 a fact that has the potential to dissuade was found that “students’ attitudes toward taking on
many talented, potential students from even considering student loan debt were more favourable in 2015 than in
higher education. The good news is that in the internet 2002”,200 and that the student loan market is thriving.201
age, since the early 1990s, the percentage of the global Consequently, universities with a global reach have bigger
population that has had no formal education has dropped average endowments than ever before.202
dramatically – nearly every country has seen a 50 to
100% decrease.195 The bad news: there is still a lot of And who should foot the bill for a student’s education?
unmet demand for science, technology, engineering and Although government aid in the form of tuition forgiveness
maths (STEM) skills, as well as other future fields as yet may help many students pay for tertiary degrees,203 this
unknown.196 support may have the adverse effect of disincentivizing an
institution to be economically efficient.204 Though income-
In response, alternative forms of tuition financing will sharing agreements are gaining traction in niche courses
increasingly be available to support students in investing that teach lucrative skillsets,205 there are still students
in courses that gain them highly sought-after skills. from low-income backgrounds who cannot readily use an
Income-sharing agreements (ISAs) – financial agreements ISA.206 Perhaps alternative sources of funding will increase
in which students share a portion of future earnings to in popularity for small percentages of the student loan
pay for their tuition – are one such financing option that market; however, the majority of students may still wish to
is currently garnering interest from investors. The start-up pay for tuition through a traditional loan offered directly by
Blair received $100 million197 in 2019 and, in the same their college, government, or financial services provider.
year, online coding platform Lambda raised $30 million198
in funding to double-down on their ISA programs. It
is likely that a rise in alternative financing options will
empower students to pursue skills-based training while
forcing institutions to offer concrete evidence of the value
of the skills they teach.

5.4
Maiah’s story
By Raquel Buscaino
42
As hundreds of faces turned towards me, I reached I nodded. She seemed to understand what I
for my hands and put them on. They were too big, was feeling.
as expected. My real hands were small, even for a “Do you have any questions before class
nine-year-old’s. begins?”
As the crowd stared, I knew exactly what My mind was spinning. I’d known I would
to do next. I had seen my friend Sanda go through be in a virtual classroom, but it was the first time
the ceremony last year when the United Educators I had thought to ask: “If the other kids come
(UE) had come to our village. I lifted my heavy new from different parts of the world, how will they
hands and began waving to the faceless crowd. understand me?”
The ambassador smiled. “Speak in your
* own language as you normally would, and the
other students will understand you perfectly. Your
Two weeks earlier, the admission ambassadors of microphone is equipped with language processing
the UE had arrived in my village for their annual visit. and generation, so it will automatically translate
They were there to announce which of the local kids everything you are saying into your classmates’
would be offered spots at the Global Virtual School languages.”
(GVS) – a recently founded, yet already prestigious, Bolin said, smiling, “We call it Babel for
virtual academy for what the grown-ups called short.”
“bright sparks”. “Will my Babel voice still sound like me?” I
Like every nine-year-old in the country, I had asked.
taken standardized tests that covered everything “Yes. Your voice, your tone, your laugh: all
from reading and writing to mathematics and logic. still yours. It only alters the words you are saying so
Because an impressive result could have a huge that they will make sense to the others.”
effect on a child’s future, my friends and I – and our I remembered my mother telling me about
parents – were really anxious. this. Supposedly, when she was a girl, Natural
When the UE ambassadors knocked on Language Processing and Natural Language
my family’s door to give us their good news, I was Generation were a mess. She said the technology
as shocked as anyone. My mother cried happy made everyone sound like robots.
tears; my father, who had told me many stories of I was happy that I could at least keep my
how different education was when he was young, own voice.
beamed with pride. “Are you ready to meet your classmates,
Maiah?”
* I nodded, not quite sure.
“On the count of tres, deux, one…”
“Maiah, how does it fit?” asked one of the
ambassadors. I nodded and the portal wobbled *
loosely on my head. “You’ve got a small head for a
child with such a big brain. Bolin, will you grab me a The next three years went by quickly, but the
smaller one?” memories of that time are vivid.
As Mr. Bolin fetched another portal (Mom still I remember the first time I tried writing with
called them “virtual reality headsets”), I played with my virtual pen. I curled my hand into a loose fist
my new hands. The haptic gloves were also slightly and moved it down to my lap, piercing my paper
too big, but I was beginning to get used to them. straight through. I would have been embarrassed if
“How does this one fit, Maiah?” I nodded I hadn’t seen a dozen other kids do the exact same
my head again. The portal didn’t wobble this time. thing.
“Looks like that’s the one.” Another strong memory is of the time I was
The ambassador turned to look at me. on the playground when one of my least-favourite
She must have seen me as I saw myself: not as a classmates threw a water bottle at me. I knew it
prodigy, but as a small, nervous child. wouldn’t hurt me in the real world, but I flinched
“Maiah, today is the first day of school with anyway, causing my portal to jolt backwards and hit
your 30 new classmates from around the world. the wall behind me.
This will be their first day of class too, so if you’re But more than anything, I remember my
nervous just remember that everyone else is too.” friends. Paige and I would talk about what we

had for dinner the night before – food so different to our nearest city, and required a bus ride and
I sometimes couldn’t understand what she was my father’s actual paper signature. Dad muttered
talking about. I simply couldn’t fathom how her much of the way to the ministry about “Luddites”
father could grill cow muscle every Friday for dinner. and “insurers getting with the times”.
Mark and I would sometimes turn Babel off, laugh My remaining college supplies were
about how funny we both sounded speaking our 3D-printed at the nearest Auntie Addie’s. This was
own languages. And during our free time Raphael more Dad’s speed, and he would gleefully drop
and I would sneak off into different Metaverses, whatever he was doing to watch every delivery
exploring hidden caves and riding age-inappropriate drone make its three-minute buzz over the valley
roller coasters. to our deck.
Those early years were good years. The I was amazed, if a bit disappointed, at
world was my park, and each of my classmates’ how little equipment there actually was in my med
countries a different playground. But not kit. In the vids I had watched with my father, the
everything was perfect: time spent with my virtual doctors had so many tools: microscopes and
classmates meant less time with my local friends, exam tables, cast saws and ventilators, even
and I had to eat at unusual hours to sync to our lollipops for after the patients had been fixed.
GMT-pegged schedule. But, as my mother would Yet all that sat in front of me were my new
remind me as she tucked me into bed each portal, my new hands and a bright pink vest. I
morning, “A GVS girl is a lucky girl.” wondered what the vest was for. It certainly wasn’t
to do with fashion.
* But as I began to look more closely at the
gear and to try it on, I started to appreciate the
“Celia, you’ve shown a strong aptitude for details. The dexterity of the haptic gloves was
mathematics, engineering and creative writing. astonishing – as if they were actually my own
What track would you like to choose?” Celia hands, a second layer of skin. The portal also
stood up proudly, “I would like to pursue represented a major upgrade. I could control it
mathematics.” Our class gave a rousing round with my eye movements, summoning overlays to
of applause. appear on demand. Two blinks for diagnostics. A
The professor continued down the register. squint for zooming in. A wink to open a chat box.
It would take some time before the professor
called my name, but I was already bursting with *
excitement. For the last year, I had been meeting
with different mentors – scientists, business “And who can tell me another function of
leaders, other professors – with each one giving endoplasmic reticulum in the cell?”
me advice on which field of study to tackle. I was A boy from a country in Northern Africa
grateful for all their input, but I had always known raised his hand, stating hesitantly, “To transport
where I’d wanted to specialize. proteins and other materials within the cell?”
“Maiah, you’ve shown a strong aptitude Our new professor gave a simple nod.
for chemistry, biology and sociology. What track Two weeks of review had taken its toll on all
would you like to choose?” of us. Thankfully, seeming to see the risk of
As I was about to speak, I realised that this his students’ collective disconnect hitting
was not only the start of something but also an an all-time high, the professor then said, “It
ending, too; after today I’d no longer get to see all seems like now is as good a time as any for
my dear friends, people I now realised I’d never our next lab. Today we’ll focus on observing
really seen at all. But I knew that I had to take this the functions of a white blood cell.”
next step, and in which direction. After a short flash, I was in a tunnel,
“I would like to pursue surgical medicine.” speeding down a waterslide on an inner tube.
On closer inspection, I realized it wasn’t a tube at
* all – it was a red blood cell. I looked up with just
enough time to dodge a flying platelet. Of course, I
Classes began the next day, but it would take smiled, I was inside an artery! ▶
a week to set up my med kit. The expensive
bit – the new portal core – was shipped directly [Maiah’s story continues in the Annex, on p.53]

7 Ready to shape
the future
An explanation of where the probable
futures we’ve seen are likely to converge
offers clear take-homes for robust planning

7.1 Signals in the noise
The preceding five sections of this report are all However, it is now time to focus on convergence,
characterized by divergent thinking. In section and in doing so empower leaders by offering them
2 we looked at technology-enabled futures that some means of preparing for these futures.
follow enduring, accelerating trajectories. The next
four sections (3 to 6) fleshed out this assertion Luckily, there are signals in the noise. In section
by using LEnS, a novel model for foresight that 1, we described the three “eternities” that have
projects historical trend lines through domain- characterized the trajectory of information technology
specific filters. Then the story sections dove right in, since Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace designed
complementing a research-based understanding their “Analytical Engine” in the early 19th century:
of the future with four attempts to describe what it interaction, information and computation. Armed
might actually feel like for the people who will inhabit with this broad-brushstroke understanding of
it. Just thinking about different kinds of futures is tech’s journey to the present, and a LEnS-inspired
insufficient. We must also work to try to imagine and, extrapolation from the technologies that are currently
in a sense, feel them. How is that for divergence? emerging from universities, start-ups and corporate
R&D labs, we are able to see that the development
of each of these three layers appears to be
converging towards a clear and coherent endpoint.
TA B L E 2 From eternities to endgames
Babbage’s First digital Mid 20th Late 20th Early 21st 2021: Horizon Furthest
Eternities design computer century century century Today next stars Endgames
Time (years) t –175 t – 75 t – 50 t – 25 t –10 t t +10 t +n t=∞
Graphical Brain-
Punched Command- Mobile Virtual Ambient
Reader user interface computer
Interaction cards line
(GUI)
devices reality experiences
interfaces
Simplicity
Arithmetic Relational Descriptive Predictive Cognitive Affective General

Store
Information calculation databases analytics analytics automation AI AI Intelligence
Client Cloud Distributed Spatial Quantum

Mill Mainframe Minicomputer
Computation server architectures platforms web computing Abundance
LEnS framework utilized

to project t+ timeframes
7.2 “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”
Though erroneously attributed to everyone from the idea of an interface requiring instructions,
Steve Jobs to Leonardo da Vinci, artist Leonard rather than being intuitively easy to use, is starting
Thiessen’s quote207 is still endorsed by the history to seem anachronistic. Today’s conversational
of information technology, which has really been a interfaces (think smart speakers and phone-based
story of our building ever more natural and intuitive digital assistants) and emerging AR/VR overlays
interfaces. Early punched-card input/output was require only that you are able to speak your native
exclusively the province of PhDs. Command-line language, or physically gesture towards your
interfaces, only slightly less Byzantine, led to a intentions, respectively.
generation of professional computer operators
having to take night school classes to keep up If smart speakers and AR get us “beyond the
with the pace of change. There were graphical glass”, ambient interface technologies (a collection
user interfaces (GUIs), then mobile became de of autonomous devices and technologies that
rigueur, and now we’ve got to the point where interact and which are sensitive to human needs)

move us “beyond the device” entirely, creating Downton Abbey, the user need not know the names
digital awareness in the user’s entire environment. of all his or her staff.
The prospect of 15 separate digital assistants
in every room and context is unwieldy, and thus And in the furthest conceivable future? Brain-
unlikely. As such, the next wave of interfaces is computer interfaces. As startling as “microchips
likely to “get out of the way entirely”, becoming in brains” may seem from the present, when
cloud services in much the same way that looked at through a long lens this proposition is
yesterday’s servers and desktops did before them. simply the removal of the final communicative
In this projected scenario, “[Device], what’s the barrier between human and machine: speech.
weather?” gives way to a far simpler, “What’s the Why bother asking, “What’s the weather?”
weather?” The idea here is that the most qualified when you can simply think that question and
digital entity snaps to attention with the highest- have it answered? Or, when the sun goes down
confidence answer, as brokered and/or sub- in the evening, enjoy the thermostat’s doting
contracted through a network of digital assistants, response to the subconscious call of your
moving all the way down the line. In this digital parasympathetic nervous system for warmth?
7.3 Mind the digital gap
While underlying enabling technologies grow more as elastic and resilient as ever.209 The primacy of
complicated, their reach, accessibility and usability digital is no longer in doubt.
grow exponentially. Leaders would be wise to plan
for a world where every interaction is mediated The governance and policy takeaways are myriad,
through a technological interface. In 2011, but the increasing primacy of digital, virtual and
venture capitalist Marc Andreessen famously said, ambient experiences brings with it a risk of an
“Software is eating the world”.208 His statement exponentially widening digital divide. Today,
recognized the fact that it is bits and bytes, rather commercial sports stadia are being constructed
than bricks and mortar, which will define our future. that require the use of a mobile phone to enter
Digital experiences are more scalable than physical. (digital ticket), transact (digital wallet) and engage
Software, thanks to updates, can improve over (digital scoreboard).210,211 Will tomorrow’s public
time. Physical hardware depreciates while compiled services be designed in such a way as to require
code is protected and less prone to reverse digital ID’s? AR glasses? It may be critical to ensure
engineering. COVID-19 has further catalyzed this that access to necessities doesn’t gradually begin
shift. As the pandemic stressed physical supply to require, or even presume, the availability of
chains beyond their limits, digital networks proved certain commercial technologies.

7.4 Intelligence is as intelligence does
How can we Forrest Gump said that, “Stupid is as stupid does.” enough information and computation, machines
develop artificial Cinema’s consummate everyman recognized that a won’t one day emulate.
intelligences person should be judged by their actions, not their
that embody our appearance. Our research suggests that Gump’s And after that? The furthest conceivable
homespun wisdom applies equally well to the future informational futures point toward versatility.
explicitly shared
of information and machine intelligence. Indeed, Machines’ astonishing ability to learn and
financial, social a perspective informed by the long arc of history subsequently master individual skills is one thing,
and ethical values? suggests that even the term “artificial intelligence” but the ability of a single machine to emulate a
(AI) may well become an anachronism – a label well-rounded individual’s skills and personality is
belonging to a transitional time, one in which we still a long way off. That said, when it comes to
were yet to realize that, whether it sits in vivo or in general intelligence the standard for “success”
silico, intelligence is intelligence. isn’t set with reference to Einstein or Shakespeare.
In their earliest incarnations, digital personas will
Consider the impact of AI: as machines become likely underwhelm. It is likely, though, that thanks
more capable, feats considered to require to exponential increases in training data and
intelligence are often stopped from helping to define processing power – and an increasing symbiosis
what AI is. “AI” has thus become a catch-all term between technology and human biology – we
for whatever machines cannot do yet. Our human will likely see mechanical minds quickly follow an
need to feel exceptional finds us simultaneously upward path towards eventual parity with, and even
dismissive of past advances in machine intelligence superiority to, our own.
(e.g. the computer Deep Blue beat chess champion
Gary Kasparov in 1996, and in 2015 AlphaGo The rise of the machines is already well under way,
became the first computer to beat a human and accelerating. Popular science fiction tends
professional at Go without handicaps) and doubtful to make this a story about malevolent sentience
about upcoming milestones.212 – mechanical minds as super villains with dark
agendas. In truth, software has always been neutral,
Our psychological fragility notwithstanding, AI’s next manifesting the explicit orders and tacit biases of its
act is likely to be affective intelligence: the ability to developers. As information technology continues to
discern and emulate human emotions and, in turn, evolve from our telling machines what to calculate
to begin to engage in empathic interactions and towards teaching machines what to discern, it
even relationships. Imagine humorous machines, will be increasingly important for organizations,
charming machines, or even spiritual machines. governments and regulators to closely monitor
To the degree that humour, charm or spirituality the “curriculum”. How can we develop artificial
continue to become describable by data, they in intelligences that embody our explicitly shared
turn become increasingly learnable by deep neural financial, social and ethical values? We must train
networks. There is probably little in the way of our digital children well, training them to do as we
individual human skills – even soft and creative skills say, not necessarily as we’ve done.
or the coherent expression of beliefs – that, given
7.5 Don’t bet against an abundance of ingenuity
As already described in our section on the economy seem to be heading towards “In maths we trust”
LEnS, our planet has a finite supply of certain – specifically the mathematics of cryptography
precious elements, chemical compounds and (protecting information through the use of codes).
organic species that we would clearly be wise to
steward well. In contrast, human ingenuity – our When, in 2014, French economist Thomas Piketty’s
shared creative capacity – is inexhaustible. new book Capital in the 21st Century213 warned of
widening inequalities in both wealth and income,
Consider the current computational shift towards few foresaw then-emerging technologies such as
trustless distributed ledger platforms, a technology Bitcoin (let alone Reddit) as a populist counter-
based on a new trust paradigm that eliminates the punch. Together, blockchains and cryptocurrencies
need for third-party processing. This computing signal the possibility of radical disintermediation. In
evolution speaks to the recognition that perhaps a world where trusted hubs give way to trustless
none of us is as trustworthy as all of us. If the 20th spoke-to-spoke transactions, information and
century marked an evolution from “In God we trust” capital are freer to flow, and seeking payment for
to “In man we trust”, the current century would it (rent-seeking behaviours) harder to justify. If the

internet brought about the death of the salesman, provide just the balance of privacy and performance
the distributed web promises to bring about the needed to power our AR and AI-enhanced future.
death of the middle man.
And after reality goes online? Imagine reality itself
The distributed web also stands to enable an used as a computer. Quantum computing gives
altogether new “Web 3.0”, or “spatial internet”. As us the power to solve certain classes of complex
the lines between the physical and digital continue problems faster, and other classes of previously
to blur, a new generation of internet architectures intractable problems for the first time.214 Current
stands ready to append information to every academic references to quantum’s theoretical
physical person, place and thing. The idea here is efficacy in chemical compound simulation tend
that our conception of physical reality itself will be not to stir the heart, but the possibility that those
coming online. No single government, or company, simulations could in turn yield medicines and genetic
could reasonably be trusted to hold all that data, interventions that may cure cancer, or even delay or
but a trustless distributed computing network may defeat death altogether? Now you have our attention.
7.6 Invest in moonshots
Though the Our species has always been defined (or at the very that might not help us compete today, but given
challenges we least, differentiated) by our ability to learn, create enough inspiration and perspiration, can help us
face are becoming and adapt. Roughly 2.6 million years ago, homo create tomorrow.
progressively habilis created the first stone tools, thus freeing
time and energy for higher-order pursuits.215 The American architectural pioneer Daniel Burnham
more complex, our
Sumerians created the first written language 5,000 (known for his city plan for Chicago) captured the
collective creativity years ago as a life hack for offloading knowledge.216 clarion call of the long view in 1891:
and intelligence Like stone tools, this advance also freed time and
appears to be energy for other pursuits, except this time of an Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir
evolving faster even-higher order. Five hundred years ago, the [our] blood and probably themselves will not be
than the challenges printing press similarly provided a life hack for realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and
themselves. communication,217 and 75 years ago, the digital work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram
computer218 one for calculation. When seen through once recorded will never die, but long after we are
this long lens, projected advances in computing are gone be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-
neither hero nor villain. Rather, they represent the growing insistency. Remember that our [children
latest in our species’ long series of transformative and grandchildren] are going to do things that would
adaptations in the pursuit of efficiency. stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your
beacon beauty.219
Though the challenges we face are becoming
progressively more complex, our collective creativity Inspirational quotes are not business cases. But in
and intelligence appears to be evolving faster than the context of the long view (looking both forward
the challenges themselves. Humanity’s ability to and backward) they remind us it’s imperative
come up with life hacks – whether made of stone that we as business, civic and academic leaders
or bits and bytes – seems set to continue to give us spend time thinking beyond quarterly numbers
an exponential edge in raising a response both to and quarreling constituents. Indeed, we must plant
today’s threats and tomorrow’s perils. seeds in a field we will never harvest.
Leaders should consider allocating time, That’s not just stewardship, that’s leadership.
mindshare and money for moonshots – projects

Annex
Maple’s story (continued from page 20)
▶ I watch the post on repeat. I need an invitation to I let out an excited “Eep”. I minimize the
that party, I think to myself as my glasses alert me congratulatory message and open up the
to my raised heart rate. document. It’s impossibly long and full of legalese,
On something like my 47th viewing, I notice but I’m effervescent when reading the title confirms
a slight ripple on the word “SUN” right when its status:
TheDailyLife walks by that olive-green bench on his
way into the park. I walk back there, scouring every CONTRACT OF EMPLOYMENT
inch of the immediate area for the clue. After nearly WITH: CONTENT CONGLOMERATES
an hour of walking in circles, I sit on the bench, take [EMPLOYER]
off my glasses and rub my eyes. I feel defeated. FOR: MAPLE BRINKLEY [EMPLOYEE]
My head in my hands, I stare at my shoes. D.P. ID: 9372843
I slowly notice that the concrete path, usually
obscured by the GPS arrows of my glasses, is I immediately search for the SIGN HERE
laced with tiny flecks of what appears to be gold line to seal the freaking deal. Honey, aren’t
and silver. It’s actually kind of pretty. Sparkly. Wait… you going to at least read that over?, says
they glimmer. my mother’s voice in my head. Ugh. I start
I put my glasses back on, and the AR begrudgingly skimming the 30-page contract.
lightshow commences: photonic flecks bouncing I’m three lines in when Harry Styles
around like Pop Rocks before my eyes. Shimmering interrupts me with a spatial update. Not now, I think,
in rhythmic unison, gold and silver sparkles realizing that I forgot to set my spatial notifications
gradually resolve into a message: to DO NOT DISTURB. Since I know I won’t be
scrolling for D-listers on benches for much longer, I
YOU’VE FOUND THE GLIMMER, tap it open.
MS. BRINKLY.
LIMO TO PARTY EN ROUTE. But the entry stops me in my tracks:
NAME: HUNTER BROWN
Adios, rideshare; I’m a limo gal now! DATA PROVIDER ID: 6924714
SOCIAL TAG: @THEDAILYLIFE
* LAST VISIT: 2 DAYS AGO
The car lets me out in front of my apartment. The TheDailyLife? Why would a Richie Rich like Hunter
party’s here? Brown still choose to provide data?
I take a seat on the green bench at the Curiosity gets the better of me, and I double
bottom of my stoop. As I do so, a document pops tap into his metadata:
up on my glasses, signalling me to tap it open.
An ornate cursive message pops out of a virtual NAME: HUNTER BROWN
envelope, like an old-fashioned eVite: DATA AVAILABLE: FINANCIAL; LOCATION;
APP USAGE; HEALTH; FITNESS;
CONGRATULATIONS, AND WELCOME TO THE CONTACT; MESSAGING; WEB HISTORY;
SIGNING PARTY! SEARCH
HISTORY; CALL LOG; CALL
A sprinkle of virtual confetti puffs over the message. TRANSCRIPTS; CON’T (PAGE 1/7).
I guess this is how fancy corporate events work DATA GOVERNANCE: ALL
these days? DATA PROPERTY OF CONTENT
The confetti dissipates, and I continue CONGLOMERATES. CONTACT FOR
reading: LICENSING.
YOU HAVE BEEN REFERRED TO US BY Oooooh. Ohhhh… no. No, no, no, no.
@THEDAILYLIFE AND HAVE SUCCEEDED I quickly shift screens back to my contract, sick to
IN REACHING THE REQUIRED NUMBER my stomach and suddenly beginning to sweat. I
OF FOLLOWERS ON YOUR SOCIAL skip to the very last line, and my heart sinks:
ACCOUNT(S).
ATTACHED IS YOUR CONTRACT OF EMPLOYEE HEREBY CEDES ANY AND
EMPLOYMENT. WE LOOK FORWARD TO ALL RIGHTS TO ANY AND ALL PERSONAL
YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF TERMS WITHIN DATA, DATA ACCESS, AND DATA
24 HOURS. PROVIDER DETAILS, TO EMPLOYER.
EMPLOYER IS FREE TO LICENSE

AND OR RESELL ANY AND ALL DATA, I head out of my apartment, this time leaving
DATA ACCESS, AND DATA PROVIDER my augmented glasses behind. I also mute Harry
DETAILS IN PERPETUITY AND IS HEREBY Styles for good measure.
INDEMNIFIED AGAINST ANY THIRD-PARTY I walk to City Park as usual, but it feels
MISUSE OF EMPLOYEE DATA. FOR A decidedly unusual without my gear. No alerts, no
REPORT DETAILING WHERE AND HOW sales routes, no riddles. Just the street, the sky
WE MONETIZE YOUR DATA, PLEASE and, I suddenly notice, that olive-green bench. I
CONTACT YOUR TALENT ADVISOR. take a seat, and for the first time, notice how the
SIGNED: bench actually feels. It’s cold, still dirty, but sturdy.
x_________________________ No longer a producer of fodder for gossip columns,
Maple Brinkley (9372843) just a bench.
I feel… untethered? Weightless?
Oof, my internal Mom Voice exhales in You feel free, a voice in my head says.
unison with my own. Definitely my mother’s again. I smile and look up,
I flash back to every one of my mom’s rants knowing she would be proud of me.
ever, as if I’m finally hearing her for the first time. Free now of digital prompts I walk of my
“You are not for sale, Maple. You’re the own volition across the street into a non-descript
captain of your own ship. Don’t you want to be office lobby. The screen behind the receptionist
more than just a crew member when it comes to shows my future in baby blue: BotCom.
your own life?” “Hi,” I say, with a clarity and confidence that
A single tear carves the make up out of my I haven’t felt since I was a kid. “I’m here for a job.”
cheek. I guess that old “grass is always greener” While I’m filling in the application, over the
idiom applies to life-long dreams, too. waiting room speakers, I hear a familiar lyric:
Tick-tock, on the clock
* But the party don’t stop, no
I look up from the paperwork, smile at the
Wake up in the mornin’ feelin’ like P Diddy [Hey, what receptionist. “Great taste in music,” I tell her.
up girl?] I think that 2020s Kesha, the one who was
Grab my glasses, I’m out the door, I’m gonna really in touch with herself, the one who spelled her
hit this city! name with an “s” not an $, would be proud of me.
Frank’s Story (continued from page 28)
▶ “Hello, this is Ryan Marks with Digital Forensics. us altogether. But, people still had jobs. On the
I see I’m talking to a Mr.… – oh, hey Frank! Wow, other hand, here I was having a discussion with a
says here we haven’t talked since you threw up on human former colleague trying to get his bots to
that low-orbit thing we did a couple years back! debug my bot. What a world!
How you doing, man?” “Ryan, thanks man. I know it’s a lot to ask,
Thanks for the reminder. but is there any chance you could turn it around by
“Hey Ry, really don’t want to skip to the this evening?”
chase, but I um…. I really need your help.” “Oh sure, Frank! Would you like me to build
I laid it all out on the table. The Gekko’s a skyscraper in your backyard, too?” I realized
decision-making, my hunch that it was rooted in how absurd my request had sounded as Frank
bias, the fact that my neck was on the line. continued, “Look, I can tell you’re pretty squeezed
“Well Frank, I hear you but the timing’s not on this one – I’ll do my best.”
great, buddy – all of our Investigation Bots are
booked solid tonight. The cost to spawn you a new *
one at such short notice would be astronomical
– it’s the licensing. How about we do it the old- When Ryan rang back, I did my best to keep up
fashioned way and see what I can do myself? Send as he sped through his analysis. He said that his
the data over.” first stop had been the Intelligence Regulation and
“Investigation Bot?”, I replied. Although Governance Agency, to audit the publicly available
years ago I’d worked at Digital Forensics with Ryan, training data used on the Gekko. Back when AI
I’d had never heard of such a thing. went mainstream about ten years ago, the agency
“Oh yeah – most of what you’d remember was formed to mandate that all publicly sold algos
as our actual ‘work-work’ is all bots now. The disclose and expose their training sets, and post
no-collar team frees up the white-collar team to open-source bounties for ethical hackers (so obvious
do more of the high-level digging and planning. now, but so memorably controversial at the time).
Problem is the intelligence servers are expensive. I Ryan had sifted through tons of data,
still have to fight tooth and claw over them.” parsing it for the staff that had their hours cut. He
I flashed back to my early days in the started with the major protected classes – race,
business when I thought AIs were going to replace religion, gender – and worked towards more

subtle variables such as education, employment Nine people in expensive suits, all with
and social media histories. Overt “on the nose” the same serious demeanor. To an outsider,
discrimination was pretty rare now; it tended to the boardroom might have looked more like
show up in proxies. For example, zip codes could a courtroom. When I arrived I was grateful I’d
be a proxy for income, or name length a proxy for been able to use the ride back to the office
race or ethnicity. to put together both a technical remediation
As Ryan finished describing hitting plus-50 strategy (blocking address data from the algos,
territory on data types he’d ruled out, I heard a however up to date it was) and the beginnings
slight rise in his intonation, which in turn raised my of an internal comms strategy to keep our
heart rate. employees on board. I had also, of course,
He continued, “You know, man, I was about secured the admin credentials required to
ready to give up, but then I realized you snuck demote “Chief Gekko” to “Analyst Gekko”.
one piece of employee data into Gekko’s mix that The board’s Chair started the ball rolling:
wasn’t in any of my usual checks…”, he shouted “First order of business today: profitability. After
this last bit, “home addresses! And every person on glum Q2 sales results, we need to decide whether
that list you shared lives well outside of the city.” to accept or overrule the acting CHRO’s recent
What does a home address have to do with interventions in personnel management.”
an employee’s salary or actual hours worked? What? How was this even a question?
As if Rick was reading my mind, he replied. She went on: “Can someone provide an
“Gekko married those zip codes up with the last argument in favour of management’s position?”
publicly available demographic cut it could find, Management?
which was crazy stale: from the late teens – way “Enhanced profitability is, on balance, pretty
before the cities really emptied out after COVID-26. hard to argue with,” one board member intoned.
I think your interim robo-HR boss has an old- “Greatly reduced COGS with a
fashioned grudge against the exurbs. Figures substantially improved CAGR projection?
everyone who’s in the sticks still has a crazy-low What’s not to like?”, offered another. All heads,
cost of living.” some physically there, others projected into
“But that’s almost our entire workforce! Only the room virtually, nodded in agreement.
our service contractors and tradespeople still live in I couldn’t believe what was happening.
the city.” “Any arguments against?”, the Chair asked.
“I know – the whole geo-economic pattern’s After what felt like an interminable three-
been inverted, right? I think there’s good grounds second silence, I found myself blurting out, “The
for an AI bias case here. For years I figured that…” algorithm is biased, and based on out-of-date data
Ryan kept talking, but my mind was already that’s no longer even ethical. It’s bad maths driving
onto other things. I hastily thanked him, hung up bad decisions that are driving bad outcomes for our
and dialled Stacey. It was time to help her make this team and their families!”
right with the board. I looked pleadingly towards Stacey, but she
didn’t say a word.
* The Chair looked at me, looked away, and
then asked, totally impassive, “All in favour?”
Alex’s Story (continued from page 36)
▶ 3. Will the other side accept our most important hate speech is! We need to allow companies to
red line: the data privacy of our citizens? regulate this, and have an open market.”
“We need better protections in place.”
* “One person’s hate speech is another
person’s freedom of expression.”
It’s been exactly four days, five hours “You can’t monitor everything.”
and 33 minutes that I’ve been negotiating with
my counterpart. We’ve made advances in online *
healthcare, education and areas of criminal justice
reform that would benefit from greater collaboration. Our respective bosses – and the countries they lead
We are aligned on data-governance protocols. – are waiting. It’s politically important we make this
We agree that personally identifiable data should work. We’re enough aligned to agree on this. We
not be compromised. But we’ve been going round can always think of ways to protect ourselves.
in circles now on Clause 15.2, and can’t make “Alex?”
any headway. “OK, we have a deal.”
“The government doesn’t get to decide what

Maiah’s Story (continued from page 44)
▶ I zipped through the tunnel, slowing down Thanks to these vests, it was near impossible for
only to pass by several blood clots and plaque a patient to be harmed by any lapse – physical,
build ups. Each time I passed an anomaly, a few biological, neurological or network related – on the
questions appeared on a suspended overlay in front part of their doctor.
of me. “Based on the size of this patient’s blood
clot, which of the following procedures should be *
recommended?” I ticked the correct boxes before
my tube cell took off again. I had just finished a routine physical on a patient at
Before long, I encountered the antagonist of the South American hospital when I heard a sudden
today’s session: a pernicious virus. With a hundred frantic banging on the door of the examination room.
tentacles pushing out from its globular core, it No, wait. Someone was banging on my actual door.
looked as menacing as any baddie I had seen in a “Maiah, help!”
vid. A white blood cell came to my rescue. After a Alarmed, I tossed off my portal, and
quick game of cat and mouse, the white blood cell staggered squinting towards the door, blinded by
had surrounded the pathogen, slowly digesting it as the harsh daylight.
if it were a tasty snack. I marvelled at the sight. “Maiah, Maiah, quick!” I recognized the voice
How did med students manage in a world as that of Ayaan, my old friend Sanda’s younger
before interactives? Best guesses? Instincts? brother. I threw open the door.
I suppose every generation looks at their “He was coming, and I was going, and it all
predecessors with a mix of reverence and pity: how happened so fast, and you know he was just lying
did they learn and accomplish so much with so little? there, and…”
Another short flash and everyone was back “Ayaan!” I tried to get him to focus. “Ayaan,
in the classroom. I need you to calm down, okay? Now, what
happened?”
* He told me that Sanda was hurt. Badly.
The next four years were the most intense of *

my life. Between advanced organic chemistry,
bioinformatics and my virtual residency at a A neighbour who had seen the accident had taken
hospital in South America, I had acclimated to a Sanda directly to our local clinic, where physicians
near-constant state of exhaustion. On top of that, were stabilizing his wounds as best as they could.
the days were much longer than I had initially He was a mess – but a breathing mess. The clinical
anticipated. I got up four hours before my parents workers gave me the information they had captured
and went to sleep before sunset. I savoured our as I further checked his vitals: Major lacerations from
lunches together, which were my only meaningful the frontal lobe to the postcentral gyrus. Ruptured
connection to the physical world. spleen, life-threatening internal bleeding. Vertebral
I was seeing my hard work pay off, though. fractures with high risk of nerve damage. I knew
I was in the 97th percentile globally at repairing exactly what needed to be done.
fractured vertebrae, and 99th at removing Without thinking, I reflexively reached to my
bone spurs for patients in need of spinal cord left to grab my haptic hands from my hippo. But
compression surgery. I was a solid 80th-plus on both they and the bright-pink vest were still in my
brain tumours and ulcerative colitis. bedroom.
Initially it had seemed underwhelming, but “Maiah, what’s wrong?” I heard a clinic
my gear had, over time, become less equipment worker ask.
and more a natural extension of my mind and body. I felt like I was turning to stone. “It’s…” I
As long as the remote surgical site had a Genbotic trailed off into my own fear. “I’ve never operated
Operator v2035 or later, I could anaesthetize, without my gear before.”
diagnose, align and administer almost anything, to I looked down at Sanda’s wounded body
anyone, anywhere on the globe. And I could do it all lying on the table. I had relied upon my medical gear
sitting at the faded desk in my childhood bedroom. for so many years. I felt as if I were missing a limb.
Oh, and that curious bright pink vest? I inhaled deeply. In my early days I had
That was my “hippo”, named in honour of the struggled to express my physical self virtually. Now,
Hippocratic Oath. It was an eyesore but it was I was struggling to express my virtual self physically.
clever: equipped with heart rate monitors, blood I closed my eyes, picturing myself inside my
oxygen level detectors, and a suite of hundreds of portal. The tools I needed, the tasks I would perform,
diagnostics about me and my environment. If I were the calculations I would have to make – all the things
to hyperventilate, nod off or in any way become I had done a thousand times in another world.
incapacitated mid surgery, this garment would The road ahead suddenly became very clear.
detect the anomaly and freeze the equipment in the I exhaled, opened my eyes, and for the first time
remote operating room before I could even register before a surgical procedure, I washed my hands.
what was happening. Then, I began to operate.

Acknowledgements
Lead Authors
Mike Bechtel
Chief Futurist and Managing Director, Deloitte, USA
Raquel Buscaino
Consultant, Deloitte, USA
Lucas Erb
Analyst, Deloitte, USA
Amy Golem
Manager, Deloitte, USA
Ruth Hickin
Strategy Lead, Centre for the Fourth Industrial
Revolution, World Economic Forum, USA
Contributors
Kelly Gaertner
Dana Kublin
Doug McWhirter
Senior Manager, Deloitte, USA
Anh Nguyen Phillips

Senior Manager, Deloitte, USA
Ketaki Patil
Senior Consultant, Deloitte, India

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In collaboration

1 A brief history of the future 4

2 Lines of the times: a framework for foresight 8

2.1 Looking back: trend lines 9

2.2 Looking forwards: projections 10

2.3 Making it meaningful: filters 11

3 The future through the LEnS of information 13

3.2 The probable 15

3.3 The possible 16

3.4 Maple’s story 18

4 The future through the LEnS of locality 21

4.2 The probable 23

4.3 The possible 24

4.4 Frank’s story 26

5 The future through the LEnS of the economy 29

5.2 The probable 31

5.3 The possible 32

5.4 Alex’s story 34

6 The future through the LEnS of education 37

6.2 The probable 39

6.3 The possible 40

6.4 Maiah’s story 42

7 Ready to shape the future 45

7.1 Signals in the noise 46

7.2 “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication” 46

7.3 Mind the digital gap 47

7.4 Intelligence is as intelligence does 48

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 2

How this report is organized

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 3

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 4

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 5

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 6

TA B L E 1 A taxonomy of technological change

Time (years) t –175 t – 75 t – 50 t – 25 t –10 t

Arithmetic Relational Descriptive Predictive Cognitive

Client Cloud Distributed

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 7

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 8

FIGURE 1 Trend lines

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 9

Known Now Next

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 10

FIGURE 3 Too much information

Compute errors Open

Known Now Next

In 1971, American economist Herbert Simon Emergence Scatterplot” (LEnS), which, as

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 11

FIGURE 4 Education LEnS (Longitudinal Emergence Scatterplot)

Known Now Next

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 12

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 13

FIGURE 5 Information LEnS

r+ Internet of Things (IoT) Closed source

Known Now Next

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 14

Always-on connectivity Data privacy informs how data is collected,

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next 15

Technology Futures Projecting the possible, navigating what’s next 16

Closed and proprietary VS Open and explainable