PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
A mathematical
process/concept that
is used to measure the
certainty or uncertainty
of the occurrence of a
statistical
phenomenon (event)

PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
EVENT
• Set of happenings or
outcomes
e.g.
Experiment: Rolling a die
Event: getting an odd
number = {1,3,5}

EVENT

TYP
ES:
• Simple-an outcome that
cannot be broken
down into simpler
occurrences.
e.g. getting a H or T in
tossing a coin
• Compound-
combination of simple
events
e.g. tossing a coin and
rolling a die
TERMINOLOGIES

Sample Space
• Set of all possible
outcomes
Sample Point
• Each of the
possible outcome
in an experiment
TERMINOLOGIES

Example:
Find the sample space
and sample point in the
events of getting an
even number {2,4,6}
Event B: Getting a
perfect square {1, 4}
NOTATIONS
 Sample Space:
n(S) Sample
Point/s: • Event A:
Experiment: Rolling a die
Sample Space: n(S)=6
Event A: Getting an
even number, n(A)=
{2,4,6}=3
Event B: Getting a
perfect square, n(B)=
{1,4}=2
COUNTING SAMPLE
POINTS
THEOREM 1
THEOREM 1
Example:
• How many sample points are in the sample
space when a pair of dice is thrown? • A
student has a choice of 5 sandwiches and 6
juices. In how many ways can he choose 1
sandwich and 1 juice?
• Erica wants to buy a blouse. She has choice
of 5 styles, 4 sizes, and 8 colors. How many
choices can she have in the selection?
THEOREM 2 If an
 If an operation can be performed in
���� ways, and for each of these a second
operation can be performed in ���� ways,
etc., then the sequence of k operations can be
performed in ���� ���� … ����ways.
THEOREM 2
Example:
• A college freshman must take a science
course, a computer science course, and a
mathematics course. If he may select any
of 3 sciences, any of 4 computer science
course, and any 2 mathematics courses,
how many ways can he arrange his
program?

THEOREM 2
Example:
• How many even three-digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 0,2,5,6,7, and 9 if
each digit can be used only once?
PERMUTATION
• A permutation is an
arrangement of all
or part of a set of
objects in definite
order
• Notation: nPr where
n=number of objects
r=number of objects
taken at a time
PERMUTATION
i.e. considering the
letters a,b,c, there are 6
possible permutations
which are abc, acb, bac,
cab, and cba.
PERMUTATION
 Case I: n=r

• The number of
permutations of n
distinct objects is n!
• Factorial function:
multiplying a series of
descending natural
numbers

PERMUTATION
Example:
• Evaluate 6!, 5!, 9!
• How many permutations are there with the
letters a,b,c,and d?
• How many different ways can 5 television
commercials can be played during a 30-
 minute television program?

PERMUTATION
 Case II: n>r
• The number of
permutations of n
distinct objects taken
r at a time is:
������ =��!
�� − �� !
PERMUTATION
Example:
• Evaluate: 6P3, 4P2, 10P7
• How many ways can a manager and a
supervisor can be selected for a company
branch in Manila if there are 8 employees
available?
• Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for first
and second prizes. Find the number of
sample points from the sample space.
PERMUTATION
Case III: n is
repeated • The

number of
distinct permutations
of n objects wherein
��1 are one of a
PERMUTATION Example:
• How many permutations can be made from the
word “occurrence”?
• How many different ways can three red, four
yellow, and two blue bulbs be arranged in a
string of Christmas tree lights with nine
sockets?
• There are 4 copies of Statistics book, 5 copies of
Probability book, and 3 copies of Forecasting
book. In how many ways can they be arranged
in a shelf?
PERMUTATION
Case IV: Circular
permutations
• The number of
permutations of n
distinct objects arranged
in a circle is: ���� =
�� − 1 !
PERMUTATION Example:
• In how many ways can 5 persons arrange
themselves in a roundtable?
• In how many ways can a 4 students a be seated
in a round table?
• In how many ways can 52 beads be arranged to
form a bracelet?
• In how many ways can 4 couples be seated in a
roundtable if: a) they can sit wherever they
wan? b) each couple are seated together? c)
husband and wife must be seated alternately?
COMBINATION
• A combination is a
grouping or selection
of all or part of a
number of things or
objects without
reference to the
arrangement of the
things selected.
COMBINATION
• The number of
combinations of n
objects taken r at a
time is:
������ =��!
�� − �� ! ��!
COMBINATION
Example:
• In how many ways can 4 board members be
selected out of 15 board members of a
company to represent the body in the
stockholders meeting?
• From four social workers and three health
practitioners, find the number of committees of
three that can be formed consisting of two
social workers and one health practitioner.
COMBINATION Example:
• In how many ways can a person choose 1 or
more 6 t-shirts?
• From 10 supervisors and 4 managers, a
committee of 5 is to be chosen so as to include
3 supervisors and 2 department managers. In
how many ways can this be done?
• A committee of 5 persons is to be formed from 6
men and 5 women. In how many ways can this
be done when a) at least 2 women are
included? b) at most 2 women at included?
PROBABILITY OF
AN EVENT
 PROBABILITY

• Numerical measure of the

likelihood that a specific
event will occur.
Properties:
• The probability of an event is
within the range 0 to 1.
• The sum of the probabilities of
simple events for an
experiment is always 1.
PROBABILITY OF
AN EVENT
 Properties:

• If an event cannot occur, its

probability is 0 (impossible
event).
• If an event is certain, then the
probability is 1 (sure event).
PROBABILITY OF
AN EVENT
 Complimentary
Events

• Set of outcomes in the sample

space that are not included
in the outcome.
• P(E’)=1-P(E) or P(E)=1-P(E’)
or P(E) +P(E’)=1
APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY •
Assumes that all outcomes in
the sample space are equally
likely to occur.
• �� ��
������������
=
 ����
�������������
��� ���� ��

����������
������������
����
�������������
���
��(��)
• �� �� =
��(��)

APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY
 Example:

• A card is drawn from an ordinary

deck of card. Find the
probability of:
❑ Getting king of hearts
❑ Getting a spade
❑ Getting a 5 of a spade
❑ Getting a 5 or a 7
❑ Getting a card which is not
spade
❑ Getting 11 of clubs

APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY •
Relative frequency probability
• Uses frequency distribution
 based on observations to
determine numerical
probabilities of events
• �� ��
��������
=
���������
� ����
��ℎ��
���������
�

���������
�
���������
���������
��
• �� �� = ��
APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY
 Example:

• In a sample of 50 college
students, 18 are freshman, 23
are sophomore, 2 are junior,
and 7 are senior. Find the
 probability that a student is:
❑ A freshman
❑ A freshman or a sophomore
❑ Neither a freshman nor a
junior ❑ Not a senior

APPROACHES
TO PROBABILITY
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY •
Probability assigned to an event
based on subjective judgment,
experience, information, and
belief.

RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
INDEPENDENT EVENTS •
Two events, A and B, are
independent events if the fact
that A occurs does not affect
the probability of B occurring.
DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Two events, A and B, are
dependent events for which the
outcome or occurrence of A
affects the outcome or
occurrence of B.

RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
• Two events, A and B, are
 mutually exclusive events if
they cannot occur at the
same time.
ADDITION RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
• Rule 1: When two events A
 and B are mutually exclusive,
the probability that A or B will
occur is
�� �� ���� �� = �� �� + ��(��)
�� �� ���� �� =��(��)

��(��)+��(��)
��(��)

ADDITION RULES FOR

PROBABILITY
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• Rule 2: When two events A and B are not
mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B
 will occur is
�� �� ���� �� = �� �� + �� ��
− ��(�� ������ ��)
�� �� ���� �� =��(��)

��(��)+��(��)

��(��)−��(�� ∩ ��)
��(��)

ADDITION RULES FOR

PROBABILITY
Example:
• A box contains 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles,
and 7 green marbles. If a person selects a
 marble at random, find the probability that is
either a red or green marble.
• A single card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
card. Find the probability that it is a queen or
diamonds

ADDITION RULES FOR

PROBABILITY
Example:
• In an insurance company, there are 20 senior
salespersons and 30 junior salespersons; 8
 senior and 14 junior salespersons are males. If
a salesperson is selected, find the probability
that the salesperson is a senior or a female.
Salesperso Male Female Total

n Senior 8 12 20
Junior 14 16 30
Total 22 28 50

MULTIPLICATION
RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
 The multiplication rules can be applied to
determine the probability of two or more events
that occur in sequence. The probability of the
intersection of two events is called joint probability
denoted as P(A and B).
Rule 1:
When two events are independent, the probability of
both occurring is
�� �� ������ �� = ��(��)
∙ ��(��)

MULTIPLICATION
RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
Rule 2:
When two events are dependent, the probability of
both occurring is
�� �� ������ �� = ��(��)
∙ ��(��|��)
Rule 3:
When two events are mutually exclusive, their joint
probability is always 0. If A and B are mutually
exclusive events, then
�� �� ������ �� = 0

MULTIPLICATION
RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
Example:
• A die is rolled and a coin is flipped. Find the
probability of getting a 5 on the die and tail on
 the coin.
• A box contains 3 red balls, 8 blue balls, and 9
green balls. A first ball is selected, and then
replaced. A second ball is selected. Find the
probability of selecting: a) 2 red balls, b) 1 blue
ball and then 1 green ball.
MULTIPLICATION
RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
Example:
• A SJS survey found that one out of 5 Filipinos
say they are in favor of the death penalty for
 heinous crimes. If the people are selected at
random, find the probability that all three will
say that they are in favor of death penalty.
• Reina owns a collection of 25 bags, of which
are made by Guess. If the 2 bags are selected
at random, find the probability that both are
made by Guess.
MULTIPLICATION
RULES FOR
PROBABILITY
Example:
• The RSS Financing Inc. found that 50% of the
members had salary loan (S) with the
financing company. Of these members 8%
also had calamity loan (C). If a member is
selected at random, find the probability that the
member has both loans with the company.