Global Demography and

Migration
 Outline
• Global Demography: The Demographic Transition
• Introduction
• Pre-Transition
• Transition: Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth
• Age-Transition
• Consequences of the Demographic Transition
 Introduction
•Population Processes and Measures
•Historical Trends
•Implications
• Causes of mortality, fertility declines
• Longevity bound? Fertility decline bound?
• Consequences of aging
• Carrying capacity of the planet
 Population Processes and Measures
• Population Balancing Equation:
Pt+1-Pt=(B-D)+(I-E)
• Where Pt+1 is the population at end of the time period, Pt is the
population at the beginning of the time period, B equals births, D
equals deaths, I equals immigration, and E equals emigration.
• The quantity (B-D) is called the natural increase of the population
while (I-E) is net-migration.
• Population growth over a specified area per period is only
possible when the natural increase or net migration is positive or
both are.
 Population Processes and Measures
• The crude birth rate or the general fertility rate is the number of
births per 1000 persons for a given time period, usually a year.
• The crude death rate or the mortality rate is the number of deaths
per 1000 persons for a given time period.
• The difference between the birth and death rates is called the rate
of natural increase of a population. For the whole world, this would
equal the growth rate of world population. For smaller areas of
the globe, net migration rates will blunt or add to the natural rate of
increase.
 Population Processes and Measures
• Alternative measures that are commonly used to indicate the
tendency for births and deaths to occur are total fertility rates and
life expectancy at birth, respectively.
• The total fertility rate is the expected number of births a woman may
expect if she follows trends in age-specific fertility rates in a given
period. Age specific fertility rates are the birth rates computed for
specific age ranges.
• Life expectancy at birth is the average number of additional years a
person could expect to live if he or she follows the trends in age-
specific death rates in a given period.
 Historical Trends

Source: Lee(2003)
 Pre-Transition
•Malthusian checks: positive (famine and misery),
preventive check (postponement of marriage, vice),
population growth limited by economic growth
•Europe: high fertility with high mortality especially
low age mortality, limited evidence for the same
elsewhere but even then below biological limits
•Variations around the mean probably due to global
climate change
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth
•Mortality Declines
• Began in Europe 1800, elsewhere 1900 accelerated post
WWII
• Driven by improvements in public health, hygiene,
improvements in nutrition
• Famine mortality declines due to improved food storage and
transport
• Mortality declines in high income countries continued due
to improved medicine addressing chronic and degenerative
diseases
• Developing countries: historically rapid increases in life
expectancy
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth

Source: Lee(2003)
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth
•Fertility Declines
• Economic models point to factors that increase the
opportunity cost of children and reduce their benefits
especially with women
• Reductions in benefits of children from external sources,
market or government reduce demand further
• Effect of contraceptive use controversial: European experience
without contraception
• Evidence points to a mortality decline before a fertility decline
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth

Source: Lee(2003)
Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines,
Population Growth

Source: Lee(2003)
 Age Distribution
•Mortality declines leads to high young age dependency
ratios
•Fertility declines leads to lower young age dependency
and bigger working age population, demographic
bonus, dependent on presence of jobs, capital
•Increasing longevity leads to increasing old age
dependency
•Population aging due to lower fertility, increased old
age dependency without improvements in health; due
to lower mortality, more functional elderly population
 Implications
• Increased global population
• Fewer children leads to more opportunities for other
activities, higher quality of children
• Mortality decline may lead to longer disabled years or
longer disability free years
• Fiscal implications for aging populations lead to an
increasing
burden on the young or the taxpayer
• Migration will have modest effects
• IŶǀestŵeŶt iŶ deǀelopiŶg ĐouŶtries ǁoŶ’t relieǀe fisĐal
pressures because of smaller economies
• Aging population problems addressable
 Migration
• Outline:
• Definitions and Types
• Causes
• Historical Trends
• Migration and Development
• International Cooperation
• Settlement and Diversity
• Migration and the Nation State
 Definitions and Types
•Internal vs international Migration
•Migration of frontiers
•Residency as a migrant vs tourists and business
travelers
•Aguilar’s Thesis: Teŵporary laďor ŵigratioŶ is aŶother
form of transnationalism despite earlier definitions
which exclude it.
 Definitions and Types
• Categories:
• Temporary Labor Migrants
• Highly skilled and Business Migrants
• Irregular Migrants
• Refugees
• Asylum Seekers
• Forced Migration
• Family Members
• Return Migrants
 Causes of Migration
• Increase in cross border flows with globalization: transnationalism
• Driven largely disparities in socio-economic levels between
destination and origin
• Enabling institutions are important: migrations systems, migration
industries
• Poverty and migration: migrants are predominantly middle income
 Historical Trends
•Colonialism
•Inter-war reduction
•Post-world war
• First phase (1945-1973)to North America, Western Europe,
Oceania
• Second phase to new centers in South Europe, Gulf countries,
Latin America, and Asia
• Migrants remain a small proportion of world population
• However, concentration in few destination countries is the
source of contention
• Urbanization
• Feminization
 Historical Trends

Source: Castles(2000)
 Migration and Development
• Does migration assist or impede development?
• Brain Drain
• Benefits for destination country: flexible, lower cost labor
• Remittances
• Abuse of migrants
• Re-integration
 Settlement and Diversity
• Migration and settlement
• Empirical regularity
• Granting of rights
• Isolation vs assimilation
• Reaction from destination populations
 Migration and the Nation-State
• Border Control
• Crisis of Confidence in the Origin
• Lack of opportunities at home
• Lack of protection for temporary migrants
• Migrants and the national identity
• Migration is unlikely to dissipate
• Global structures must acknowledge this reality and evolve