The National Academies Press: Advanced Technologies For Gas Turbines (2020)

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Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines
Advanced Technologies for

GAS TURBINES
Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
A Consensus Study Report of
Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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COMMITTEE ON ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES
DAVID E. CROW, NAE,1 University of Connecticut, Co-Chair

TRESA M. POLLOCK, NAE, University of California, Santa Barbara, Co-Chair
SEAN BRADSHAW, Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines
MICHAEL J. FOUST, GE Aviation
BRIAN GRAHAM, GE Aviation
JOHN GÜLEN, Bechtel Infrastructure & Power
ALLISTER JAMES, Siemens Energy, Inc.
TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology
MICHAEL J. MALONEY, NAE, Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines (retired)
PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University
KAREN A. THOLE, Pennsylvania State University
FREDERIC VILLENEUVE, Siemens Energy, Inc.
CHARLES H. WARD, Air Force Research Laboratory
BERNHARD WINKELMANN, Solar Turbines, Inc.
Staff
ALAN ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director
DANIEL NAGASAWA, Associate Program Officer
ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant
GAYBRIELLE HOLBERT, Program Assistant
COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair

BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder
STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering
MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University
EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC
EDWARD F. CRAWLEY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology
ILAN KROO, NAE, Stanford University
ANDREW R. LACHER, MITRE Corporation
NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute
VALERIE MANNING, Airbus
RICHARD MCKINNEY, RWMckinney, LLC
PAMELA A. MELROY, Melroy & Hollett Technology Partners, LLC
PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University
JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries
ELLEN M. PAWLIKOWSKI, NAS, Independent Consultant
ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation
WANDA A. SIGUR, NAE, Independent Consultant
ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center
DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation
Staff
COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
MARGARET A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer
ANDREA REBHOLZ, Program Associate
RADAKA LIGHTFOOT, Financial Associate

vi

Preface
The Department of Energy requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
(the National Academies) convene an ad hoc committee to identify high-priority opportunities for improving and
creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines to enhance
their performance (particularly with respect to efficiency and life-cycle cost). The committee was further tasked
with determining the state of development that could be achieved by 2030.
The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Academies’ Division on Engineering and Physi-
cal Sciences assembled a committee to carry out the assigned statement of task (see Appendix A). The committee
members (see Appendix C) met four times during 2018 and 2019, three times at the National Academies’ facilities
in Washington, D.C., and once at the National Academies’ facility in Irvine, California. As specified in the state-
ment of task, the committee identified high-priority goals as well as research areas and topics that would most
effectively achieve those goals. A summary of each of the research goals, areas, and topics appears in Appendix B.
David E. “Ed” Crow, Co-Chair

Tresa M. Pollock, Co-Chair
Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines
vii


Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives
and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its
published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential
to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Eric H. Ducharme, NAE,1 General Electric Aviation,

Srinath V. Ekkad, North Carolina State University,
Nagi Gebraeel, Georgia Institute of Technology,
John W. Hutchinson, NAS2/NAE, Harvard University,
Yiguang Jurczyk, Princeton University,
Marybeth McBain, Kinder Morgan, Inc.,
Nitin P. Padture, Brown University,
Taryn Riley, Siemens Energy, Inc.,
Jayant Sabnis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and
Jon C. Schaeffer, NAE, GE Power & Water.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were
not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Dennis Bushnell, NAE, NASA Langley Research Center. He
was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance
with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final
content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

ix


Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 BACKGROUND 6
Introduction, 6
Global Leadership, 12
Global Market Trends, 14
Global Technology Trends, 16
Prioritization Process, 19
2 AGGRESSIVE GOALS FOR GAS TURBINE DEVELOPMENT 26

Power Generation, 26
Aviation, 29
Oil and Gas Industry, 33
Goals: Interrelationships and Recommendation, 36
3 HIGH-PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS AND TOPICS 39

Research Area 1: Combustion, 40
Research Area 2: Structural Materials and Coatings, 46
Research Area 3: Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines, 55
Research Area 4: Thermal Management, 61
Research Area 5: High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments, 70
Research Area 6: Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles, 74
Research Area 7: System Integration, 80
Research Area 8: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance, 85
Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure, 90
Research Area 10: Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications, 93
Research Areas: Interrelationships and Recommendation, 98
xi

xii CONTENTS
4 ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 101

State of Development Achievable by 2030, 101
Interrelationships Among Goals, Research Areas, and Research Topics, 103
Research Consortia, 107
Development Process, 107
Future Vision, 108
APPENDIXES
A Statement of Task 111

B Compendium of High-Priority Goals, Research Areas, Research Topics, and 112
Their Summary Statements
C Committee Member Biographical Information 118
D Acronyms 123

Summary
This report identifies high-priority opportunities for improving and creating advanced technologies that can be
introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines to substantially accelerate improvements to performance
(e.g., efficiency and life-cycle cost). The report also describes the state of development that could be achieved by
2030. Three gas turbine applications are considered:
• Power generation (i.e., large, ground-based gas turbines that generate electricity to power the electrical grid);
• Aviation (i.e., commercial and military aircraft propulsion); and
• Oil and gas industry.1
In order to identify specific research goals, research areas, and research topics of particular importance, the
committee
1. Assessed the 2030 gas turbine global landscape via analysis of global leadership, market trends, and
technology trends that impact the gas turbine applications above.
2. Developed a prioritization process.
3. Defined high-priority research goals for each of the three gas turbine applications of interest.
4. Identified high-priority research areas of greatest relevance to achieving the specified goals.
5. Identified high-priority research topics for each research area to provide more specific guidance on the
recommended research.
GAS TURBINE GLOBAL VIEW

Leadership in gas turbine technologies is of continuing importance for the United States in general and the
Department of Energy (DOE) in particular, as the value of gas turbine production is projected to grow substantially
by 2030 and beyond. The major global market trends important to the future of gas turbine technologies include
changes in (1) world demographics, (2) energy security and resilience, (3) decarbonization, and (4) customer
profiles. The major global technology trends that define the technological environment in which gas turbine
1 The
committee determined that within the oil and gas industry, the highest-priority research should focus on gas turbines that power natural
gas compressors in pipeline applications.

2 ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES
research and development will take place are (1) inexpensive, large-scale computational capabilities; (2) highly
autonomous systems; (3) additive manufacturing; (4) artificial intelligence; and (5) cybersecurity.
Globally, electricity generation has more than doubled since 1990,2 and it could grow by more than 50 percent over
the next two decades.3 In the United States, gas turbine facilities powered by natural gas generate about one-third of the
electrical power used by the electrical grid.4 Both the total amount of electrical power generated by natural gas and the per-
centage of the U.S. demand for electrical power that is met by natural gas are projected to increase through at least 2050.5
The global demand for oil and gas could increase by 20 percent over the next 20 years, with China accounting
for one-third of the growth.6 However, this growth is expected to plateau after 20357 or see a contraction, depend-
ing on energy policies regarding emissions and the use of renewable energy that are implemented internationally
because of concerns about climate change, air quality, and overall sustainability.8 Research and development
(R&D) to substantially reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may mitigate concerns with respect to climate
change. Even so, demand for natural gas could contract if utility-scale energy storage technologies enable solar
and wind-generated power to meet demand-driven requirements.
In aviation, essentially all large commercial and military airplanes are powered by gas turbine propulsion
systems. During the 20 years ending in 2017, the number of commercial airline passengers globally almost tripled,9
and over the next 20 years it is projected that more than 40,000 new aircraft will be produced.
Given the above trends, the gas turbine industry will continue to play a critically important role in the gen-
eration of electric power, aircraft propulsion, and the oil and gas industry for decades to come, both domestically
and globally. The operating efficiency, power density, reliability, and safety of gas turbines are well established.
In one potential scenario, excess solar or wind power could be used to create hydrogen as an important energy
storage mechanism, which in turn could be burned in gas turbines to create electricity. Gas turbines are powering
the oil and gas industry all along the value chain. The aviation market shows a strong preference for gas turbines
given their proven efficiency, power density, reliability, and safety. Gas turbines will therefore likely continue to
dominate the growing aviation market for the foreseeable future. Altogether, the projected yearly global value of
production of gas turbines is projected to grow from about $90 billion today to $110 billion by 2032, with aviation
gas turbines accounting for about 85 percent of the total market.10
PRIORITIZATION PROCESS
With the above global view in mind, the committee fashioned a multistep prioritization process to identify high-
priority research goals, areas, and topics for gas turbines for each of the three applications. First, it agreed upon three
selection criteria relevant to the goals: (1) performance improvement, (2) technical risk, and (3) breadth of application.
The performance improvement selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which the accomplishment
of a goal could have the potential to improve the performance of gas turbines for each application. As will be
discussed in more detail below, performance parameters of particular interest are as follows:
2 International Energy Agency, 2019, Electricity Information: Overview (2019 Edition), http://bit.ly/2JRQ9u3.
3 International Energy Agency, 2018, World Energy Outlook 2018, https://www.iea.org/weo2018.
4 Energy Information Administration, Electricity Power Monthly with Data for July 2019, Table 1.1, “Net Generation by Energy Source:
Total (All Sectors), 2009–August 2019,” http://bit.ly/2oOKXj6.

5 Energy Information Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, p. 21, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/
archive/aeo19.
7 McKinsey and Company, 2019, Global Energy Perspective 2019: Reference Case (Summary), https://mck.co/2NH3yGg, January.
8 Renewable sources of energy include solar power, wind power, hydroelectric power, energy storage systems that store renewable energy
when generating capacity exceeds demand, and gas turbines that are powered by renewable fuels. Renewable fuels include hydrogen, ammonia,
biofuels, and synthetic gaseous or liquid hydrocarbons that are generated by electricity from renewable sources of energy.
9 The World Bank, 2019, “Air Transport, Passengers Carried,” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR?end=2017&start=1970&
view=chart, accessed November 5, 2019.

10 L. Langston, 2018, Anticipated but unwelcome, Mechanical Engineering 140:36-41, doi: 10.1115/1.2018-JUN-2, http://bit.ly/32iMzzi.

SUMMARY 3
• Efficiency
— Full rated load
— Partial load (across the operating envelope)
• Life-cycle cost
— Design and development time and cost
— Manufacturing time and cost
— Reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM)
• Fuel flexibility
• CO2 emissions
• Compatibility with renewable energy sources and the future electrical grid (for power generation and oil
and gas applications only)
The technical risk selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which a goal faces an appropriate level
of technical risk. Goals are expected to be aggressive in that efforts to achieve the goal will face medium-to-high
risk and may fall short. The high-priority goals do not include low-risk activities given the expectation that low-
risk research that could substantially accelerate improvements to the performance of gas turbines would have
already been addressed by government, industry, or academic members of the gas turbine community. However,
the goals should not be overly aggressive to the extent that there is little or no prospect that substantial progress
in achieving the goal will be accomplished between now and 2030.
The breadth of application selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which accomplishment of a goal
could support the accomplishment of other goals, and the extent to which a goal is related to multiple research
areas and topics. Given the context of the global view, the prioritization process establishes the following high-
priority goals for the three applications.11
RECOMMENDATION: High-Priority Goals. In order to expedite the process of improving and creat-
ing advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines, the
Department of Energy, other government agencies, industry, and academia should pursue the following
goals as a high priority:
Power Generation Gas Turbine Goals

1. Efficiency. Increase combined cycle efficiency to 70 percent and simple cycle efficiency to more
than 50 percent.
2. Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources. Reduce turbine start-up times and improve the
ability of gas turbines operating in simple and combined cycles to operate at high efficiency while
accommodating flexible power demands and other requirements associated with integrating power
generation turbines with renewable energy sources and energy storage systems.
3. CO2 Emissions. Reduce CO2 emissions to as close to zero as possible while still meeting emission
standards for oxides of nitrogen (NOx).
4. Fuel Flexibility. Enable gas turbines for power generation to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures with
high proportions (up to 100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various compositions.
5. Levelized Cost of Electricity. Enable reductions in the levelized cost of electricity from power
generation gas turbines to ensure that these costs remain competitive with the cost of solar and
wind power systems over the long term.
11 Each application area has a different number of goals: power generation has five, aviation has one, and oil and gas has three. Neither the
distribution of the goals among the three application areas nor the ordering of the goals for a particular application is indicative of (1) the rela-
tive importance of one application area versus another or one goal versus another, or (2) how resources should be allocated among research
related to different applications and goals. Rather, for example, the committee concluded that there are five key goals of comparable importance
that are applicable to power generation gas turbines, whereas there is one overriding goal that pertains to aviation gas turbines. Within the
power generation and oil and gas application areas, the ordering of the goals was selected to facilitate the explanation of each goal because in
some cases the details associated with one goal provide a foundation for understanding other goals. The various research areas were likewise
ordered to facilitate understanding and do not indicate relative priority.

Aviation Gas Turbine Goal

1. Fuel Burn. Develop advanced technologies that will increase thermal efficiency to enable a
25 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to today’s best-in-class turbofan engines for narrow- and
wide-body aircraft, and concomitant reductions in fuel burn for military aircraft.
Oil and Gas Industry Gas Turbine Goals

1. Fuel Flexibility. Enable gas turbines for natural gas pipeline compressor stations (and other oil
and gas applications) to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures with high proportions (up to
100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various compositions.
2. Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance. Develop the ability for condition-based operations
and maintenance to increase periods of uninterrupted operation for natural gas pipeline compressor
stations to 3 years or more without reducing availability or reliability.
3. Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency. Design gas turbines for pipeline compressor stations (and
other oil and gas applications) that can handle large load swings and operate at partial load with
efficiency that exceeds the efficiency of stations that use compressors driven by electric motors.
The committee then used a slightly modified set of selection criteria (benefit, technical risk, and breadth
of application) to identify 10 high-priority research areas. The first five research areas focus on disciplines; the
remaining five focus on systems.
RECOMMENDATION: High-Priority Research Areas. In order to expedite the process of improving

and creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas
turbines, the Department of Energy, other government agencies, industry, and academia should pursue
the following research areas as a high priority:
1. Combustion. Enhance foundational knowledge needed for low-emission combustion systems that
(1) can work in high-pressure, high-temperature environments that will be required for high-efficiency
cycles, including constant pressure and pressure gain combustion systems; and (2) have operational
characteristics that do not limit the gas turbine’s transient response or turndown (i.e., ability to
operate acceptably over a range of power settings), with acceptable performance over a range of fuel
compositions.
2. Structural Materials and Coatings. Develop (1) the technology required to produce ceramic
matrix composites; (2) advanced computational models; and (3) advanced metallic material
and component technologies that would improve the efficiency of gas turbines and reduce their
development time and life-cycle costs.
3. Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines. Integrate model-based definitions of gas turbine materials
(those already in use as well as advanced materials under development), materials processes, and
manufacturing machines with design tools and shop floor equipment to accelerate design and
increase component yield while reducing performance variability.
4. Thermal Management. Develop advanced cooling strategies that can quickly and inexpensively
be incorporated into gas turbines and enable higher turbine inlet temperatures, increased cycle
pressure ratios, and lower combustor and turbine cooling flows, thereby yielding increased
thermodynamic cycle efficiency while meeting gas turbine life requirements.
5. High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments. Develop and validate physics-
based, high-fidelity computational predictive simulations that enable detailed engineering analysis
early in the design process, including virtual exploration of gas turbine module interactions and
off-design operating conditions.
6. Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles. Investigate and develop unconventional thermodynamic
cycles for simple and combined cycle gas turbines to improve thermal efficiency, while ensuring that
trade-offs with other elements of gas turbine performance, such as life-cycle cost, are acceptable.

SUMMARY 5
7. System Integration. Improve, modify, and/or expand the conventional gas turbine architecture (i.e.,
a compressor module, combustor module, and turbine module on a common shaft in the direction
of gas flow) to enable the development of gas turbines with higher performance and/or greater
breadth of application.
8. Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance. Develop technologies that will improve operation of
gas turbines by reducing the amount of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, thereby reducing
unscheduled shutdowns.
9. Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure. Develop the capability to generate enhanced
digital twins and a digital thread infrastructure that supports them.
10. Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications. Investigate (1) opportunities to improve the efficiency of gas
turbines in pipeline applications exposed to extended periods of partial load operation and (2) the
safety implications of gas turbines with a substantial percentage of hydrogen in the fuel.

Background
INTRODUCTION
In England in 1930, Frank Whittle submitted the first turbojet patent. Seven years later, Whittle succeeded
in conducting the first flight test run of a complete turbojet experimental engine. The engine, produced by Power
Jets, was liquid fueled, with a single-stage centrifugal compressor. It was designed to power a small mail plane
to a speed of 500 mph (800 km/hr).1 Since Frank Whittle and Power Jets’ experimental engine, gas turbines have
seen tremendous progress. They can now operate above the melting point of engine structural materials thanks
to advanced cooling and coating technologies; they offer some of the highest power density levels for propul-
sion and power generation; they offer important flexibility in terms of load levels and fuel types; and they have
shown reliable operation, providing electricity and transporting billions of people worldwide. Because of these
characteristics, gas turbines are now used across major global industrial applications. Altogether, the yearly global
value of production of gas turbines is projected to grow from about $90 billion today to $110 billion by 2032,
with aviation gas turbines consistently accounting for about 85 percent of the total market.2 Box 1.1 provides a
basic understanding of gas turbines.
This report identifies key research goals and topics that the United States could pursue to continue its techno-
logical leadership in gas turbines. The report is organized around three applications of particular interest:
• Power generation (i.e., large ground-based gas turbines that generate electricity to power the electrical
grid);
• Aviation (i.e., gas turbines for commercial and military aircraft propulsion); and
• Oil and gas industry.3
1 G. Jones, 1980, The jet engine—anniversary of a missed opportunity, New Scientist 88(1229):570, http://bit.ly/2VS52Bi.
2 L. Langston, 2018, Anticipated but unwelcome, Mechanical Engineering 140:36-41, doi: 10.1115/1.2018-JUN-2, https://asmedigital
collection.asme.org/memagazineselect/article/140/06/37/447709/Anticipated-but-UnwelcomeEven-as-Gas-Turbines-Get.
3 The committee determined that within the oil and gas industry, the highest priority research should focus on gas turbines that power natural
gas compressors in pipeline applications.

BACKGROUND 7
BOX 1.1
Gas Turbine Basics
A gas turbine is a type of continuous flow combustion engine. The main elements common to all gas
turbine engines are the compressor, the combustor, and the turbine.
The compressor and the turbine are usually between one and three sections, with a shaft connecting
a section of the compressor to a section of the turbine, while the combustor is usually located between
the compressor and turbine section. Figure 1.1.1 depicts a cutaway section of the rotating and stationary
components of a gas turbine.
Compressor Turbine
Combustor
FIGURE 1.1.1 Cutaway of a General Electric Frame 9 gas turbine. SOURCE: Courtesy of Business Wire/Mitsubishi Hitachi
Power Systems Americas, Inc.
Gas turbines are so named because they are powered by hot, pressurized gas. Conventional gas
turbines use the Brayton thermodynamic cycle with air as the working fluid. Atmospheric air flows into the
compressor, which brings it to higher pressure. Energy is then added by spraying fuel into the air and
igniting it so that the combustion generates a high-temperature flow. This high-temperature, high-pressure
gas enters a turbine, where it expands to produce work. The turbine shaft work is used first to drive the
compressor. Excess energy comes out in exhaust gases that can be used to do external work or (in a
combined cycle facility) directed downstream to another engine that uses a different thermodynamic cycle
(most commonly a steam turbine operating on the Rankine cycle).1 The use of the gas turbine determines
what form this external work will take, such as driving an electrical generator, a compressor, or a pump.
The efficiency of the Brayton cycle is determined by the cycle pressure ratio,2 the ratio of the turbine inlet
temperature to the compressor inlet temperature, and component efficiencies of the engine.
Gas turbines can be designed to use many different fuels, including natural gas, jet fuel, or hydrogen.
Other types of turbines are also used for power generation and other industrial uses. Steam turbines, for
example, are powered by high-pressure steam that is generated by the combustion of a fuel external to
the turbine. The water turbines in hydroelectric power stations use high-pressure water as their source of
energy. A combined cycle power plant uses both gas and steam turbines to improve overall efficiency. The
steam turbine (or bottoming cycle) is powered by waste heat in the gas turbine exhaust.
1 G.J. Van Wylen, R.E. Sonntag, et al., 1994, Fundamentals of Classical Thermodynamics, 4th Ed (Wiley, New York),
p. 12.
2 Cycle pressure ratio is the ratio of the compressor outlet pressure to the compressor inlet pressure. It is sometimes
called the compressor pressure ratio or overall pressure ratio.

50
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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Funding provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [Pub. L. 111‐5]
FIGURE 1.1 Historical funding of the turbine program by the Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy. SOURCE: Courtesy
of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory.
Gas Turbine Research and Development

Because of their technical characteristics, gas turbines still have important technological and economic growth
potential. For this reason, regions around the globe are heavily investing in research and development (R&D) for
gas turbines. The European Union provides substantial support for power generation and aviation research and
development programs, such as the Clean Sky 1 and 2 programs, which were initiated in 2008 and 2014, respec-
tively. Similarly, in 2016 China launched its state-owned Aero-Engine Group of China, which has about 50 billion
yuan ($7.5 billion) in registered capital to develop military and commercial engines.4 In addition, in 2018 the
Natural Science Foundation of China launched a major national research initiative on advanced aircraft engines
to address advanced manufacturing, smart failure diagnostics, active safety controls, high-temperature materials,
and turbulent combustion.5 China has also launched a domestic heavy-duty gas turbine development program to
support electrification and decarbonization.
The U.S. federal R&D investment in gas turbines seems modest in comparison. For power generation,
advanced gas turbine technologies are funded under the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy,
with a budget of approximately $15 to $20 million annually since 2015 (see Figure 1.1).
For aviation propulsion, advanced gas turbines are funded through the Department of Defense (DoD) for
military aviation engine technologies and through NASA for commercial aviation propulsion technologies. The
amount of funding for military aviation engine technology development is classified, but the committee believes
that it is substantially less than what Asian nations have been investing in advanced gas turbine technology in
recent years. Funding for commercial aviation propulsion technologies from NASA has meanwhile been relatively
level and modest in size (between $600 million and $650 million per year) over the past decade, with no change
projected in future budgets through 2023.6
4 BBC News, 2016, China launches own aircraft engine-maker to rival the West, August 29, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/business
-37212009.
5 National Science Foundation of China, 2018, Annual Report 2018, http://bit.ly/2XGIww4.
6 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2019, FY2019 Budget Estimates, https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files
/fy19_nasa_budget_estimates.pdf.

BACKGROUND 9
FIGURE 1.2 Global electricity generation by technology (New Policies Scenario, which incorporates existing energy policies as
well as an assessment of the results likely to stem from the implementation of announced policy intentions). CSP 5 concentrated
solar power; PV 5 photovoltaic. SOURCE: International Energy Agency, 2018, World Energy Outlook 2018. All rights reserved.
Market Overview
Globally, electricity generation has more than doubled since 1990,7 and it could grow by more than 50 percent
over the next two decades, as depicted in Figure 1.2. By capacity type, power generation for natural gas could also
grow by more than 50 percent by 2040.8,9
In aviation, essentially all large military and commercial airplanes are powered by gas turbine propulsion
systems. During the 20 years preceding 2017, the number of commercial airline passengers globally almost
tripled,10 and over the next 20 years it is projected that more than 40,000 new aircraft will be produced, with the
total number of operational aircraft doubling (see Figure 1.3).
The global demand for oil and gas could increase by 20 percent over the next 20 years, with China account-
ing for one-third of the growth.11 However, this growth is expected to plateau or contract after 2035, depending
on energy policies regarding emissions and the use of renewable energy that are implemented internationally
because of concerns about climate change, air quality, and overall sustainability.12 Research and development to
substantially reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may mitigate concerns with respect to climate change. Even
so, demand for natural gas could decrease if utility-scale energy storage technologies improve the ability of solar
and wind energy systems to provide power when real-time demand for electricity exceeds the real-time generating
capacity of these systems. In one potential scenario, excess solar or wind power could be used to create hydrogen
as an important energy storage mechanism, which in turn could be burned in gas turbines to create electricity.
8 International Energy Agency, 2018, World Energy Outlook, https://www.iea.org/weo2018/.
9 The accuracy of long-term projections is of course uncertain. This projected growth is per the new policies scenario in World Energy
Outlook 2018 (International Energy Agency, 2018, https://www.iea.org/weo2018/).

10 World Bank, 2019, “Air Transport, Passengers Carried,” http://bit.ly/34gaxx9, accessed November 24, 2019.
11 International Energy Agency, 2019, Electricity Information: Overview (2019 Edition), http://bit.ly/2JRQ9u3, accessed November 5, 2019.

48,540
Total Fleet
50K
40K
24,140
Growth
56%
of Deliveries
30K
20K
24,400 18,590
Current Replacement
Fleet
44%
of Deliveries
10K
5,810
Retained
0
2017 2037
FIGURE 1.3 Global aircraft market outlook. SOURCE: Boeing, 2018, Commercial Market Outlook 2018–2037, p. 23, http://
bit.ly/2Chfmty.
In the United States, gas turbine facilities powered by natural gas generate about one-third of the electrical
power; and gas turbines are the predominant means of using energy from the combustion of natural gas to produce
electricity.13
Within the United States, the power produced by gas turbines and by renewable energy sources are each
projected to grow in absolute terms and as a percentage of the national market through 2050 (see Figure 1.4).14
These two power sources will satisfy all of the projected growth in national demand for electrical power, as the
contribution by nuclear power and coal diminishes (see Figure 1.5).
13 Energy Information Administration, Electricity Power Monthly with Data for July 2019, Table 1.1, “Net Generation by Energy Source:
Total (All Sectors), 2009–August 2019,” http://bit.ly/2oOKXj6.

14 Renewable energy sources include solar power, wind power, hydroelectric power, energy storage systems that store renewable energy
when generating capacity exceeds demand, and gas turbines that are powered by renewable fuels. Renewable fuels include hydrogen, ammonia,
biofuels, and synthetic gaseous or liquid hydrocarbons that are generated by electricity from renewable sources of energy.

BACKGROUND 11
FIGURE 1.4 Electricity generation in the United States from selected fuels (reference case). SOURCE: Energy Information
Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, p. 21, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo19.
FIGURE 1.5 Annual electricity-generating capacity additions and retirements (reference case). SOURCE: Energy Information
Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, p. 93, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo19.

FIGURE 1.6 Flows of natural gas to the South Central region from surrounding regions (reference case). SOURCE: Energy
Information Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, p. 79, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/
archive/aeo19.
The growth in natural gas demand is projected to drive a corresponding growth in the need for natural gas
pipelines. In the United States, for example, the production of natural gas will grow in the East and Upper Midwest
as well as in West Texas (the Permian Basin) much more rapidly than in any other region of the United States.
Meanwhile, the South Central region is projected to experience a greater increase in the demand for natural gas
than any other region. This increase in demand will be driven by industry, electrical power generation, natural gas
exports to Mexico, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports globally. As a result, there will be a tremendous growth
in the demand for natural gas pipelines from the East and Midwest to the South Central region (see Figure 1.6).
The production of new pipelines to meet this demand—and the need for increased natural gas pipelines elsewhere
in the United States—will result in a concomitant increase in demand for pipeline compressor stations, the vast
majority of which are driven by gas turbines.
GLOBAL LEADERSHIP
Gas turbines are a proven and reliable technology. Their power density, reliability, and safety are well estab-
lished. For all three applications of interest to this report, gas turbines have and will continue to play a key role
domestically and globally. Continued research and technology investments will enable gas turbines to maintain
their place in the market.
The power generation market is undergoing important transformations with renewable energy sources and
decarbonization. However, because of their power density, relatively small carbon footprint, and potential to burn
environmentally friendly fuels—and because appropriately designed gas turbines can respond rapidly to changes
in power demand—gas turbines will continue to be an important element in this energy mix.

BACKGROUND Gas turbines for commercial aviation, military aviation, and non-aviation. 13
2009 - 2018 and projection to 2033
$120 billion (2018 U.S. dollars)
Total Total aviation

$100
$80
Commercial aviation
$60
Projection
$40
$20 Total non-aviation
Military aviation
200 201 201 202 202 203
9 4 9 4 9 3
Data: Forecast International
FIGURE 1.7 Global market for gas turbines for commercial aviation, military aviation, and non-aviation applications, 2009
to 2018 and projection to 2033. SOURCE: Reprinted with permission from L.S. Langston, 2019, Old and new, Mechanical
Engineering 141(6):38-43. Copyright ASME 2019.
The aviation market, which is much larger than the market for all other applications combined (see Figure 1.7),
shows a strong preference for gas turbines given their proven reliability, safety, and performance. They will therefore
likely continue to dominate the growing aviation propulsion market for the foreseeable future.
The oil and gas market has a large pipeline network that can serve as an important energy storage mechanism.
Gas turbines are powering this oil and gas industry all along the value chain. Their reliability, power density, and
fuel availability also make gas turbines the technology of choice for the future.
Continued investments in gas turbine research and development have important implications for the economic
and technological leadership in this industry. This technological leadership is important, as the United States is the
principal exporter of gas turbines, with an export value of $32 billion in 2017.15 Overall, gas turbines represent
a $90 billion global market (see Figure 1.7), and they are an important factor to U.S economic prosperity and to
sustaining the highly skilled manufacturing and engineering workforce that is essential to the gas turbine industry.
This workforce can also cross-pollinate other important U.S. industrial sectors (e.g., transportation, electronics,
petrochemical, and general manufacturing).
15 Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2019, “Gas Turbines,” https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/8411, accessed November 5, 2019.

GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

The future of the power generation, aviation, and oil and gas markets for gas turbines will face many chal-
lenges as changes occur to the overall energy landscape. The market trends described in this section will affect the
design and manufacture of gas turbines in the future and will be important to consider when framing a research
portfolio. The goal of this section is to answer the following key questions:
• Who will be the future customers for gas turbines?

• What will they need for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications?
• What are their buying preferences going to be?
The following four market trends are particularly relevant:
• Demographics;
• Energy security and resilience;
• Decarbonization; and
• Competition and customer profiles.
As discussed in more detail below, global market projections show important growth opportunities for power
generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications. The market trends also show that gas turbines will need to adapt
to accommodate future customer needs. Investments in advanced technologies in the United States will enhance
the ability of the gas turbine industry to adapt to future needs and meet customer demands.
Changes in Demographics
The global population is growing, from 7.4 billion in 2015 to a projected 9.2 billion in 2040, with increasing
urbanization. More than 90 percent of the projected population growth will occur in Africa (48 percent) and Asia
(43 percent).16 As such, countries in these regions will have an increasing demand for reliable power, energy sup-
plies, and air transportation. Unlike previous markets penetrated by gas turbines, these countries often lack capital,
local sources of natural gas, and a robust grid infrastructure for power generation and gas pipelines.
Strong aviation growth is also forecast. During the next 20 years, air traffic is projected to increase by 7 percent
annually in India and 6 percent annually in China and Africa. This is about double the projected growth in North
America and Europe.17
Meeting the power demands of developing nations will be difficult given the projected population growth, the
drive of individuals and nations to improve their standards of living, and the lack of traditional power and energy
infrastructure that exists in developed nations. Interconnected transmission and distribution networks will be less
widespread than in developed countries.18 New gas turbines will be much more competitive if they fit the needs
of these evolving markets.
Energy Security and Resilience

In addition to changes in demographics previously described, approaches to energy security will also drive
the diversification of power generation assets and the construction of power generation assets that are generally
closer to consumers than is typical today. Natural gas pipelines will act as energy carriers as well as energy stor-
16 C. Cilluffo and N.G. Ruiz, 2019, “World’s Population Is Projected to Nearly Stop Growing by the End of the Century,” Pew Research
Center, June 17, https://pewrsr.ch/33mxvlw.
17 Boeing, 2019, Commercial Market Outlook 2019-2038, https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook, accessed
November 5, 2019.
18 T. Levin and V.M. Thomas, 2019, Can developing countries leapfrog the centralized electrification paradigm? Energy for Sustainable
Development 31(2016):97-107, https://www.osti.gov/pages/servlets/purl/1391710.

BACKGROUND 15
age facilities. With the availability and low pricing of natural gas, specifically in the United States, a shift will
continue from the use of coal and diesel fuels toward natural gas (which will also help decarbonization); many
cities and countries are moving in this direction already.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been a means of transporting natural gas in liquid form in places where
pipeline infrastructure is insufficient or nonexistent. Ongoing discoveries of natural gas fields are sufficient to
meet demand for many decades, but they are located far away from consumers. New methodologies are making
LNG plants more attractive to build and operate (mainly in Australia and the United States). Consequently, LNG
is developing into a commodity, much like gasoline, with the global trade in LNG projected to double by 2030.19
This change has the potential to improve energy security in Africa, China, Europe, India, and elsewhere.
The need for secure and reliable power generation will be a continued trend for countries that are facing
geopolitical conflicts, and more broadly due to changes in the evolving set of energy suppliers and buyers. In this
context, gas turbines will be impacted, as the regions where they will operate will vary in terms of fuel supply,
electrical grid characteristics, and power generation mixes. Severe weather and the lack of capital for large infra-
structures in certain regions will also tend to drive the need for smaller electrical grids and for smaller and more
reliable gas turbines to meet increased needs in grid reliability and counterbalance the unpredictable availability
of many renewable energy sources.
Decarbonization
Policies and standards established by governments (in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere) and by
intergovernmental bodies such as the International Civil Aviation Organization, as well as end-customer prefer-
ences, are set to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address global warming. This trend toward
decarbonization and sustainability will incentivize the replacement of conventional gas turbine power generation
systems with renewable systems. It will also incentivize the use of gas turbines as a replacement for power genera-
tion facilities fueled by coal or petroleum products because those facilities emit more CO2 per kilowatt hour than
gas turbine facilities. In addition, gas turbines can become a renewable, carbon-free source of power for ground
and aviation applications to the extent that they are fueled by synthetic hydrocarbons, hydrogen, methane, and
other fuels that can be generated and transported from renewable energy sources. The supplies of such fuels may
substantially increase over the next several decades, which may impact the design of gas turbines, primarily in
the combustor module.
Continued increases in the prevalence of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems will also
impact gas turbine performance requirements, demanding more flexible and fast ramping generators (as well as
practical, large-scale energy storage approaches) to accommodate the integration of renewable energy sources into
the power grid. In the case of new energy storage approaches, gas turbines will be impacted by having to burn
different types of fuels or by operating in different power plant setups than is customary.
The growing demand for electric vehicles will add to the overall demand for electricity. This will also increase
the variability of demand throughout the day to the extent that owners of electric vehicles predominantly recharge
their vehicles at the same time each day (e.g., when arriving home after the end of the workday). The power net-
work will need to grow and adapt to accommodate these changes.
Competition and Customer Profiles

Production and engineering overcapacity in the power generation gas turbine market has hit all major original
equipment manufacturers (OEMs).20 Despite the increase for global demand in electricity, this reality will con-
tinue to impact the gas turbine industry by limiting investment by OEMs in research and development. The rise
of new international competitors in power generation gas turbines (e.g., in China and Korea) will put further pres-
sure on existing OEMs’ market shares, profits, and investment in research and development. These international
19 International Energy Agency, 2018, World Energy Outlook 2018, https://www.iea.org/weo2018, accessed November 5, 2019.
20 S. Slade and C. Palmer, 2018, Worldwide gas turbine forecast, Turbomachinery International, November 15, 2018, http://bit.ly/2CcPord.

competitors are seeking to grow their gas turbine industries across all sectors of the product life cycle, including
research and development, supply chain, and servicing. Government intervention and subsidies to support these
new competitors could significantly outspend U.S.-based OEMs, which will increase the competitiveness of for-
eign OEMs.
The increasing need for smaller, more decentralized power sources and the declining needs for large, cen-
tralized facilities in the developed world, coupled with competition with renewable energy sources, will tend
to threaten the market share of gas turbines in the power generation market, especially with respect to the very
large gas turbines that are used to provide base load power in existing, centralized facilities. Gas turbines will be
required to work in concert with renewable energy sources within a more-distributed power generation system.
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Gas turbines are complex products that exist within a deep and diverse technology development ecosystem.
Many advanced technologies have broad applications, and substantial resources are often being invested in these
technologies by many different organizations in government and industry. Global technology trends, therefore,
are important to understand so that gas turbine technology development efforts can leverage the progress being
made by others. For example, gas turbine research and technology development programs can leverage and adapt
research performed in cybersecurity (outside the gas turbine community) to develop secure communications pro-
tocols and firewalls.
The global technology trends are different from the research topics recommended in this report, as the former
represent global mega-technological trends supported across multiple industries and markets. Key global technol-
ogy trends include the following:
• Inexpensive, large-scale computational capabilities;

• Highly autonomous systems;
• Additive manufacturing;
• Artificial intelligence (AI); and
• Cybersecurity.
Inexpensive, Large-Scale Computational Capabilities

Inexpensive, large-scale computational capabilities will help design, manufacture, and operate gas turbines
faster and with higher accuracy. On the design side, the development of these technologies will provide the ability
to overcome system integration challenges such as dynamics coupling, turbulence distortion, unanticipated heating,
or aerodynamic loading from complex mixing phenomena.21 On the manufacturing side, the simulation of new
manufacturing technologies like additive manufacturing at different levels of resolution will help better exploit
these technologies. The generation of virtual sensors or the physics-based interpretation of real-time sensor data
will also help the operation and maintenance of gas turbines.
Large-scale simulations, described above, will likely leverage emerging hardware for accelerated computing
to reduce simulation costs (in both time and real-dollar costs). Whether accessed via the Internet in the cloud or
on premises, reformulated computational methods and models can be leveraged to efficiently operate on these
hardware architectures. Figure 1.8 depicts an estimated cost trend for large-scale simulations based on available
commodity (×86) and accelerated (graphics processing unit) architectures for a high-fidelity flow solver.
Highly Autonomous Systems

Highly autonomous systems will help reduce the operation and maintenance costs of gas turbines. Through
better control, improved inspection through robotics, improved manufacturing and repair processes, and by
21 Briefing by Frank Ham, Cascade Technologies, to the Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines on December 18, 2018.

BACKGROUND 17
106
100K core-hour simulation
Cost (constant 2015 dollars)

Intel 90nm
1M core-hour simulation
Intel 45nm
Intel 32nm
Intel 22nm Intel 14nm
10000
Nvidia 28nm
Nvidia 12nm
100 x86 commodity Projected
+ accelerated archchitecture
2000 2010 2020

Year
FIGURE 1.8 Estimated real-dollar simulation cost using the Charles large eddy simulation flow solver for prototypical
100,000 and 1,000,000 core-hour simulations (core-hours based on a 2015 ×86 architecture). Cost estimates prior to 2010 are
based on a performance model for the Charles flow solver. Projections for graphics processing units in the 2021 time frame
are extrapolated from current trends. SOURCE: Briefing by Frank Ham, Cascade Technologies, at the first meeting of the
Committee on Advanced Technologies for Gas Turbines on December 18, 2019, p. 9.
leveraging advances in AI (see below) this trend will significantly impact the entire gas turbine product life cycle.
Autonomous systems will increase the level of flexibility and intelligence of the ecosystem of activities supporting
a gas turbine by improving the repair, maintenance, and inspection processes, which will improve the reliability
of these assets as well as reduce product life-cycle cost. In particular, the following emerging technologies will
enable substantial changes for the inspection and repair paradigm for gas turbines:
• Miniaturized robotic mechanisms;

• Autonomous navigation;
• Automated repair and inspection;
• Teleoperation and telepresence; and
• Virtual and augmented reality.
Additive Manufacturing
Additive manufacturing represents an opportunity to institute digitally based product development capabilities
that can marry conception and validation of new and complex designs with print-to-part manufacturing capabili-
ties of radical, previously unavailable three-dimensional (3D) shapes. A wide range of industries are benefiting
from the rapid maturation and deployment of additive manufacturing processes for tooling and prototyping and
production of components. The possibilities for higher efficiencies in delivering new, higher performing hardware
in shorter periods of time are potentially enormous.
Many robust activities are under way in academia, government laboratories, and industry to advance the
state of the art in additive manufacturing. The U.S. government’s investment alone exceeds $400 million per
year. Enabling the next expansion of additive manufacturing capabilities means creating a new generation of 3D

FIGURE 1.9 Venture capital investment in AI in the United States. SOURCE: PWC/CB Insights, 2018, Q4 MoneyTree™
2018 Report: Q4 2018, p. 20, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/moneytree-report/moneytree-report-q4-2018.pdf.
additively manufactured components that will require larger machines, with multiple heating sources and larger
processing volumes to meet ever growing demands. Ongoing efforts will also improve the ability to evaluate the
capabilities and durability of additively manufactured components.
The additive process modalities and design methodologies will enable a systems approach to component design
that will reduce the number of individual parts, enhance vendor involvement, reduce system weight, improve
durability, and reduce life-cycle costs.
Artificial Intelligence
AI will help improve the operational efficiency and quality of gas turbines throughout the design, manufac-
turing, operation, and service phases of the product life cycle. Advances in AI (including machine learning)22 and
data warehousing will also (1) enable human operators to make better and faster decisions, (2) improve mainte-
nance processes, (3) improve reliability and resilience, and (4) decrease operational costs. Expectations regarding
the potential return on investment from AI research is indicated by the level of investments being made by U.S.
venture capital firms (see Figure 1.9).
Cybersecurity
As gas turbines become even more connected, and as the amount of highly valuable company data stored in
design, manufacturing, operational, and maintenance systems increases, the importance of cybersecurity and the
required levels of security will also increase. In an ideal world, distributed assets, such as electrical distribution
systems, would be connected to a larger network, enabling experts to look for potential problematic behaviors and
identify opportunities to increase efficiency or reduce costs. Such data would then be aggregated across a large
number of locations to build the databases needed to sleuth out more subtle or lower probability issues. However,
such access creates vulnerabilities. While many of the ongoing cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are classi-
fied, a number of high-profile incidents have made it into the open press. One of the most high-profile attacks was
the 2015 hacking of the Ukrainian power grid, which led to widespread power outages and has been attributed
to state-sponsored actors. Similarly, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of
Investigation (FBI) issued a public alert in 2018 regarding state-sponsored cyber actors who gained remote access
into U.S. energy networks. Indeed, it seems increasingly clear that it may not be possible to completely prevent
suitably resourced hostile actors from accessing critical industrial infrastructure, leading to discussions of how to
22 Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence relating to the creation of models that can learn from large volumes of data and
prior conditions.

BACKGROUND 19
limit or manage risk. Such issues will inherently limit the ability to control gas turbines and manage data from
industrial facilities. Cybersecurity issues are also important to other aspects of the oil and gas industry, including
production and distribution.23
PRIORITIZATION PROCESS
The committee fashioned a multistep process to identify high-priority research. First it agreed upon priori-
tization criteria, and then it used those criteria to identify aggressive goals for gas turbines in each of the three
applications of interest: power generation, aviation, and oil and gas. The committee subsequently identified 10 high-
priority research areas that address these goals. Within each area, the committee identified up to three research
topics to provide more specific guidance on the recommended research.
The prioritization process is based on the assumption that the global market and technology trends described
above will continue. Substantial changes in these trends may well justify reassessing the priorities recommended
in this report.
An unstated element of the prioritization process is that acceptable approaches for achieving the goals must
not degrade the ability to meet current standards and expectations for key parameters such as safety, emission of
oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and other regulated compounds, life-cycle cost, commercial viability, reliability, main-
tainability, and availability.
The committee believes that this report would provide little value added if it simply endorsed a continuation of
ongoing research. Rather, the value added by this report lies in identifying (1) new research directions and (2) known
research directions with substantial potential that for whatever reason are receiving no or minimal funding.
As noted above, this report focuses on three applications of gas turbines: powering the electrical grid, propul-
sion for both military and commercial aircraft, and transporting natural gas from gas fields to users. In all three
applications of interest, gas turbines are but one element of a larger system such as the nation’s electrical power
grid, an aircraft, or a natural gas pipeline. In addition, gas turbines are also closely linked to ancillary systems.
Depending on the type of turbine and the applications, this may include external cooling systems, fuel storage
systems, electrical generators, structures for integrating gas turbine engines into the airframes of aircraft, cogen-
eration systems (which typically use steam turbines to generate electricity from the waste heat of gas turbines),
and alternative fuels. As specified by the statement of task (see Appendix A), however, the scope of the report’s
recommended research is limited to goals and research topics that are directly related to the design and manufacture
of gas turbines. Thus, even though some alternative fuels could help improve the performance of gas turbines,
developing alternative fuels is not a gas turbine research and development goal. On the other hand, a goal related
to the development of gas turbine technology that would enable gas turbines to accommodate a variety of alterna-
tive fuels is within the scope of this study.
Selection Criteria for the Goals

The committee used three criteria to select aggressive goals for improving and creating advanced technologies
that can be introduced into gas turbines considering the current and future state of the art of gas turbine design
and manufacturing for each of the three applications. The three criteria are:
1. Performance improvement. This selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which accomplishment
of a goal could have the potential to improve the performance of gas turbines in their respective applications.
Performance parameters of particular interest are as follows:
• Efficiency
— Full rated load
— Partial load (across the operating envelope)
23 T. Lieuwen and B. Noble, 2019, The new industrial data economy, Mechanical Engineering 141(5):38-41.

• Life-cycle cost
— Design and development time and cost
— Manufacturing time and cost
— Reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM)
• Fuel flexibility
• CO2 emissions
• Compatibility with renewable energy sources and the future electrical grid (for power generation and
oil and gas applications only)
2. Technical risk. This selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which a goal faces an appropriate
level of technical risk. Goals are expected to be aggressive in that efforts to achieve the goal will face
medium-to-high risk and may fall short. The high-priority recommendations do not include low-risk
activities given the expectation that low-risk research that could substantially accelerate improvements to
the performance of gas turbines would have already been addressed by government, industry, or academic
members of the gas turbine community. However, the goals should not be overly aggressive to the extent
that there is little or no prospect that substantial progress in achieving the goal will be accomplished between
now and 2030.
3. Breadth of application. This selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which accomplishment of a
goal could support the accomplishment of other goals, and the extent to which a goal is related to multiple
research areas and topics.
Background Information for the Performance Improvement Criteria

As detailed above, performance improvement was assessed using five parameters. This section describes the
relevant aspects of each parameter as it applies to the process of assessing potential gas turbine goals.
Efficiency
Increasing system efficiencies is a common goal across all gas turbine applications for both cost and
environmental reasons. Given that fuel costs are a significant component of overall operational costs for the
majority of gas turbine applications, increases in efficiency directly translate to fuel savings. In addition, for
systems that use hydrocarbon fuels, increases in efficiency directly translate into reduced CO2 emissions. As
will be explained in Chapter 2, however, specific efficiency goals differ for each of the three applications
of interest. In addition, depending on the intended operational use of a particular gas turbine, its efficiency
when operating under its full rated load may be of more, equal, or less importance than when operating under
partial load.
The thermal efficiency of a gas turbine is a function of site characteristics, prevailing ambient conditions
(temperature and humidity), altitude and thrust (for aircraft propulsion), and load (for power generation and oil
and gas applications). The performance of a gas turbine at partial load is determined by the hardware design and
the design philosophy of the manufacturer. In general, gas turbine efficiency decreases with decreasing load,
increasing altitude (i.e., decreasing inlet pressure), and increasing ambient temperature. Thermal efficiency also
varies with size. In many cases, design features that improve the efficiency of very large turbines are less effective
when scaled down for application to smaller turbines. This consideration arises in power generation applications
(because the growing prominence of smaller distributed electrical generators are changing the market dynamic),
in aviation applications (for relatively small commercial transports), and for oil and gas applications (which tend
to use small gas turbines compared to power generation gas turbines).
Gas turbine thermal efficiency can be improved by higher cycle pressure ratio and higher turbine inlet tem-
perature. Power output is controlled mainly by air flow, which dictates the physical size of the machine. While
cycle pressure ratio has the strongest effect on efficiency, it is detrimental to net power output via increased
compressor power consumption and reduced output from the bottoming steam cycle (in combined cycle electric

BACKGROUND 21
45
A. 1990
B. 1999 OEM-Published Ratings
C. 2013 HA/J Class
D. Field Performance Test
9H GT tested in Baglan Bay
C
40 G Class
GT EFFICIENCY, %
D
F Class
B
E Class
35
A
H-System
HA
HL
G
H
F
J
30
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
YEAR
FIGURE 1.10 Gas turbine efficiency historical trends (GT = gas turbine, PR = cycle pressure ratio, TIT = turbine inlet tem-
perature in °C). SOURCE: Courtesy of John Gülen, Bechtel Infrastructure and Power.
power applications). Therefore, turbine inlet temperature is the most important design parameter for increasing
the efficiency for both simple and combined cycle gas turbines.
Historically, there have been incremental improvements to gas turbine efficiency over time; improvements
in gas turbine efficiency for power generation gas turbines over the past four decades and the class hierarchy of
heavy-duty industrial gas turbines is summarized in Figure 1.10.24 Values of turbine inlet temperature (in °C) in
the embedded table reflect the state of the art at the time of the introduction of the particular gas turbine class.
Over time, advances achieved in materials, casting and manufacturing techniques, thermal barrier coatings, and
film cooling technologies flow down into the earlier products and push their efficiencies upward as well, largely
because they enable higher turbine inlet temperatures. Cycle pressure ratio increases in lockstep with turbine inlet
temperature in order to keep the gas turbine exhaust at a temperature commensurate with the temperature limits
on the materials that are typically used in the gas turbine last stage, the exhaust diffuser, and the downstream heat
recovery steam generator (in combined cycle applications).25
24 Trendsin the efficiency of gas turbines for aviation are described in Chapter 2.
25 Thispractice minimizes the number of gas turbine parts that must be designed with expensive high-temperature materials and complex
cooling systems.

Life-Cycle Cost
The committee considered three key aspects of life-cycle cost:
• Design and development time and cost;

• Manufacturing time and cost; and
• RAM.
Given the low cost of shale gas in the United States, gas turbines will be the least expensive option for gener-
ating electricity using fossil fuel for the foreseeable future. The situation is similar in the rest of the world except
for India and China, which have large coal reserves and a gigantic and growing demand for electrical power.
Technological advances related to subjects such as additive manufacturing and rapid prototyping can signifi-
cantly reduce the first two items in the list above. Additive manufacturing represents an opportunity to institute
digitally based new product introduction capabilities that can marry conception and validation of new and complex
designs with print-to-part manufacturing capabilities of radical, previously unavailable shapes. A wide range of
industries are benefiting from the rapid maturation and deployment of additive manufacturing processes for tool-
ing and for prototyping and production of components. The possibilities for higher efficiencies in delivering new,
higher performing hardware in shorter periods of time are potentially enormous. The additive process modalities
and design methodology enables a systems approach to component design resulting in a fewer number of parts,
reduced weight, improved durability, reduced design cycle times, and reduced life-cycle costs.
RAM, which appear as the last item in the above list, are vital to the profitability of a power plant, airline, or
pipeline. High efficiency means very little if a power plant cannot start on command, if an aircraft is grounded,
or if a pipeline is shut down because compressor stations are off-line. Improvements in RAM have a major payoff
in terms of overall gas turbine performance, and the payoff of improvements in other parameters may be greatly
or completely offset if they reduce RAM.
Fuel Flexibility
Gas turbines can be designed to use a broad range of liquids and gases as fuel. This includes conventional
fuels such as natural gas and jet fuel, as well as alternative fuels, including those that are derived from waste
gases (e.g., methane from landfills) as well as renewable fuels (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, biofuels, and synthetic
gaseous or liquid hydrocarbons) that can be generated by electricity when the supply of electricity from renewable
sources exceeds demand. The ability of gas turbines to use alternative fuels is becoming increasingly important
to the extent that they (1) allow gas turbines to operate with no net CO2 emissions; (2) facilitate compliance with
increasingly stringent regulatory limits on emissions; and (3) enable the use of renewable sources of electrical
power (e.g., wind and solar power) even when the power from those sources exceeds demand on the electrical grid.
Natural gas power plants have inherently low levels of harmful emissions such as mercury, particulates, and
sulfur oxides. The harmful emissions of particular concern with gas turbines fueled by natural gas are NOx and CO2.
Gas turbines that must comply with very stringent regulatory standards on NOx emissions currently come with
tight fuel specifications in terms of, for example, the levels of hydrogen or higher hydrocarbons because NOx emis-
sions are very sensitive to fuel composition. This is a particular challenge when it comes to using alternative fuels such
as biofuels for aviation, in part because it is technically challenging and expensive to certify alternative aviation fuels.
Hydrogen fuels have been researched to some extent in large-scale industrial turbines, and gas turbine manu-
facturers are continuing to invest in the development of turbines that can use fuels with a mix of natural gas and
hydrogen, with the goal of increasing the amount of hydrogen in the fuel to the point that the turbines can oper-
ate on hydrogen alone.26 The introduction of significant levels of hydrogen into the existing natural gas pipeline
network would raise significant issues associated with the pipelines themselves and with the gas turbines that
would be fueled by the mix of natural gas and hydrogen. For gas turbines, the primary issue would be the inher-
26 EUTurbines, 2019, “The Gas Turbine Industry Commitments to Drive Europe’s Transition to a Decarbonised Energy Mix,” http://bit.ly/2JRCxyE,
January.

BACKGROUND 23
ent safety risks to the gas turbine combustion module and the fuel distribution system that are associated with
natural gas–hydrogen fuel mixtures. In general, the difficulty of overcoming these challenges increases as the
percentage of hydrogen increases. Challenges associated with alternative fuels (including hydrogen) that impact
gas turbine design and operations fall within the scope of this report and the recommended research goals and
areas in Chapters 2 and 3. Because challenges associated with hydrogen would perhaps be the most difficult to
overcome, they are detailed specifically below:
• Hydrogen has a higher probability of system leakages than natural gas because of the very low molecular
weight of hydrogen.
• Hydrogen has substantially broader flammability and detonation limits than natural gas, which increases
safety and explosion risks.
• New sensors are needed to monitor gas turbine operations.
• New methods and associated technologies are needed to safely handle hydrogen–natural gas fuels.
• New control systems are needed to respond quickly in case of flameout caused by the interruption of gas supplies.
• Hydrogen has a much higher turbulent flame speed and extinction resistance than natural gas, which
increases the risk of flashback. As a result, premixing nozzles in the combustor that can operate safely while
producing low levels of NOx emissions are significantly different from existing designs for natural gas.
Other challenges that impact the natural gas pipeline system as a whole, such as those listed below, fall outside
the scope of this report and the recommended research goals and areas in Chapters 2 and 3:
• The hydrogen concentration in a particular pipeline could vary substantially along the length of the pipeline
because hydrogen would be produced on an intermittent basis and at certain locations only.
• To transport the same amount of energy as natural gas, the flow volume of hydrogen must be three times
the flow volume of natural gas.
• Pipeline materials will need to be validated and perhaps replaced to avoid hydrogen embrittlement that
could lead to pipeline ruptures.
CO2 Emissions
Gas turbines fueled by natural gas are the cleanest source of electrical power generated by fossil fuels. For
example, they produce less than half of the CO2 that is produced by a coal-fired power plant with the same power-
generating capacity.
There are two options for reducing or eliminating net CO2 emissions from gas turbines. Improving gas tur-
bine efficiency will directly reduce the amount of CO2 produced by gas turbines powered by hydrocarbon fuels.
Replacing hydrocarbon fuels with hydrogen or other renewable fuels, in part or in whole, will correspondingly
reduce CO2 emissions. Both of these options have already been addressed above in the discussions of efficiency
and fuel flexibility. In any case, the ultimate goal is to reduce total systemic emissions of CO2. Thus, while replac-
ing hydrocarbon fuels with renewable fuels would reduce CO2 emissions from gas turbine exhaust, the net benefit
would vary depending on how much CO2 is released in the process of generating the renewable fuel.
Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources and the Future Electrical Grid
Renewable energy sources are playing an ever-increasing role in current and future energy networks. The
amount of power generated from renewable sources is increasing rapidly, and gas turbines will play a vital role
in complementing renewable energy sources.27 This will include both generating electricity when the power from
renewable energy sources is not available and using renewable fuels. Although power generation gas turbines
compete with renewable energy sources, all sources of ground power will increasingly be integrated within the
27 This parameter does not apply to aviation.

energy infrastructure and complement each other. Gas turbines used for power generation will need to ramp up
faster and overfire28 more frequently. In addition, modes of operation that have not been considered in the past
will be increasingly important. For example, some gas turbines will likely be required to operate in hybrid power
plants, where they will need to work in a symbiotic manner with solar power generation and fuel cells. The growing
presence of solar and wind power also means that the electrical grid is becoming more distributed, with a larger
number of generating stations with a larger range of generating capacities. Gas turbines that are not integrated as
part of the growing infrastructure of renewable power will face the risk of becoming obsolete.
As noted earlier, the demand for electricity is increasing and the nature of that demand is changing. When
intermittent renewable energy sources are producing more energy than needed, alternatives are needed to store
such excess energy. One form of storage is the production of hydrogen through electrolysis or other methods.
The produced hydrogen can then be introduced into the existing natural gas pipeline network for further storage,
distribution, and use. All existing and future pipelines, including their compressor stations, would be affected by
introducing hydrogen into the transport media.
Gas turbines for power generation are able to start up much more rapidly than alternatives such as steam turbines,
which have much thicker metal casings and rotors. Even a large, heavy-duty industrial gas turbine rated at several
hundred megawatts can reach full load in about 20 minutes from standstill. Aeroderivatives (i.e., power generation
gas turbines that are derivatives of aviation gas turbines) such as the General Electric (GE) LMS100 can achieve
full power in about 10 minutes. Another possibility is pairing a small aeroderivative such as the GE LM6000 with a
lithium-ion battery. In this arrangement, instant power is available on demand from standstill because while the gas
turbine rolls to full speed, synchronization, and full load, the power demand is instantaneously met by the battery.
Aggressive Goals for Improving Gas Turbine Performance

The committee generated a list of candidate goals for improving gas turbines for each application. These goals
were qualitatively evaluated using the selection criteria above, and up to five high-priority goals were selected for
each application. Achieving the selected goals would lead to substantial improvements in gas turbine performance
(selection criterion 1), and these goals would be aggressive (selection criterion 2). In some cases, they would
also support the achievement of other goals (selection criterion 3). The selected goals are discussed in Chapter 2.
Selection Criteria for the Research Areas and Topics

This report is not intended to provide comprehensive research plans for accomplishing the selected goals.
Rather, the report is intended to highlight the most important research areas that should be funded to lead the
way in pursuit of these goals. Referring again to relevant aspects of the statement of task and relying again on the
expertise and experience of the committee members, the committee selected the criteria below to use in selecting
research areas and the research topics they encompass.29
Benefit
The benefit selection criterion was used to assess the following:
• The extent to which a proposed research topic could accelerate current efforts or establish new efforts
to address issues or uncertainties that are essential to achieving relevant goals and for which there is a
particularly large gap between the currently projected state of the art and the state of the art that is needed
to achieve relevant goals.
28 Overfiring in this context means operating the gas turbine at a temperature higher than the designed combustion firing temperature.
29 Thecriterion that appears first in this list (i.e., Benefit) is named differently from the criterion that appears first in the list for prioritiz-
ing the goals (i.e., Performance) because the two criteria are assessed using different factors. The second and third criteria in each list (i.e.,
Technical Risk and Breadth of Application) are more closely linked, and so they are identically named.

BACKGROUND 25
• The extent to which a proposed research topic could advance the state of the art beyond that which is
currently projected based on a continuation of ongoing research.
• The state of development that a reasonably funded research program could achieve by 2030.
Technical Risk
The technical risk selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which a proposed research topic would
achieve a balance between (1) offering a high payoff (and high risk) and (2) the potential to make substantial
progress between now and 2030.
Breadth of Application
The breadth of application selection criterion was used to assess the extent to which a proposed research topic
would support the accomplishment of multiple research goals.
High-Priority Research Areas and Topics

The committee generated a list of candidate research areas that would contribute to achieving the gas turbine
goals. However, the committee recognized that not all research topics associated with a particular research area
would have equal levels of benefit, technical risk, and breadth of application. To ensure that the specific research
topics recommended by this report would each be of high priority, the committee assessed the priority of candidate
research topics individually using the above criteria. Ultimately, 10 high-priority research areas were identified,
and up to three high-priority research topics were identified for each area. The selected research areas and topics
are discussed in Chapter 3.

Aggressive Goals for Gas Turbine Development
This chapter describes nine aggressive goals—in power generation, aviation, and oil and gas—that should be
pursued as a high priority in order to substantially accelerate the ability to develop advanced technologies that can
be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines. The selection criteria for the goals are described
in Chapter 1.1
POWER GENERATION
Power generation turbines for the electrical grid are generally used in one of two different configurations:
(1) combined cycle to meet base load power demand, and (2) simple cycle to meet transient and peak power
demand. A combined cycle power plant employs both gas turbines and a steam turbine together to produce up to
50 percent more electricity from the same fuel than a simple cycle plant. The waste heat from the gas turbine that
escapes through the exhaust in a simple cycle gas turbine is routed to a heat recovery steam generator, where the
heat of the exhaust gas is used to generate steam for the steam turbine. In a combined cycle configuration, two
gas turbines are often paired with a single steam turbine. Combined cycle power plants are generally designed for
base-load (full-power) operation because they lack the agility to ramp up and down rapidly. It is challenging to
efficiently integrate a plant designed for base load with renewable energy sources that provide intermittent power.
Although the plant efficiency of a gas turbine operating in simple cycle is less than a gas turbine operating in
combined cycle, a gas turbine operating in simple cycle has far greater operational flexibility in terms of its ability
to accommodate swings in power while operating under partial load.
1 Each application area has a different number of goals: power generation has five, aviation has one, and oil and gas has three. Neither the
distribution of the goals among the three application areas nor the ordering of the goals for a particular application is indicative of (1) the rela-
tive importance of one application area versus another or one goal versus another, or (2) how resources should be allocated among research
related to different applications and goals. Rather, for example, the committee concluded that there are five key goals of comparable importance
that are applicable to power generation gas turbines, whereas there is one overriding goal that pertains to aviation gas turbines. Within the
power generation and oil and gas application areas, the ordering of the goals was selected to facilitate the explanation of each goal because in
some cases the details associated with one goal provide a foundation for understanding other goals.
26

AGGRESSIVE GOALS FOR GAS TURBINE DEVELOPMENT 27
Aggressive Power Generation Goals for Future Development

The five power generation goals below are relevant to simple cycle and combined cycle gas turbines. Each of
these goals directly addresses a key criterion used to select aggressive goals for gas turbine development:
• Efficiency
• Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources
• CO2 Emissions
• Fuel Flexibility
• Levelized Cost of Electricity
Power Generation Goal 1: Efficiency

Goal Summary Statement: Increase combined cycle efficiency to 70 percent and simple cycle efficiency to
more than 50 percent.
Large state-of-the-art gas turbines for power generation are currently operating with a combined cycle effi-
ciency of 63 percent or more and a simple cycle gas efficiency of about 40 percent. Increased efficiency gains
are probably more important for power generation and aviation applications than for those used in oil and gas
applications.2
In addition to improving efficiency, achieving this goal would reduce environmental impact to the extent that
reducing fuel burn results in a commensurate reduction in emissions of interest (i.e., NOx, carbon monoxide [CO],
CO2, and particulate matter). This may be difficult to achieve with respect to NOx because some approaches to
improving efficiency involve increasing combustion temperatures, which tends to increase the formation of NOx.
Achieving this goal would also reduce life-cycle costs to the extent that reduced fuel consumption exceeds the
cost of implementing associated design changes.
The technical risk of this goal is high because achieving 70 percent combined cycle or 50 percent simple
cycle efficiency may require the introduction of revolutionary rather than evolutionary technology. Changes to the
underlying configuration of the turbine may be required. Development, testing, and validation may be paced by
the ability to design and manufacture the necessary hardware. Solutions may require new materials, which have
historically required longer development timelines.
Power Generation Goal 2: Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources

Goal Summary Statement: Reduce turbine start-up times and improve the ability of gas turbines operating
in simple and combined cycles to operate at high efficiency while accommodating flexible power demands
and other requirements associated with integrating power generation turbines with renewable energy sources
and energy storage systems.
Integration with renewable energy sources will be most critical for turbines being used to meet transient
and peak power demands. However, all future turbines would benefit from the ability to use renewable fuels and
supplement power from renewable sources.3
Achieving this goal would increase compatibility with renewable energy sources and reduce environmental
impacts because a fast start capability and flexible operations will enable grid operators to quickly balance the
electrical output of gas turbines with the variable quantity of power supplied by wind and solar. The demand for
2 Background information on efficiency is presented in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance Improve-
ment Criteria.”
3 Background information related to the growth of renewable energy sources and the importance of ensuring that future gas turbines are
compatible with renewable energy sources appears in Chapter 1, in the sections “Global Market Trends” and “Background Information for
the Performance Improvement Criteria.”

fast start may be impacted with the introduction of grid-scale energy storage systems such as batteries. Hybrid
gas turbine/battery systems may reduce the number of turbine starts and extend the time available to bring gas
turbines online. Such systems have the potential to reduce fuel burn, maintenance costs, and harmful emissions.
Achieving this goal would improve fuel flexibility, as one aspect of an integrated energy infrastructure with
renewable energy sources is the ability to burn renewable fuels.
The technical risk of this goal is medium to high depending on the nature of the renewable fuels that gas
turbines would be expected to use as fuel; using 100 percent hydrogen would pose the highest technical risk.
Compatibility with electrical generators powered by renewable fuels would also be challenging due to the rapid
and frequent fluctuations in the amount of electricity available from renewable energy sources.
Power Generation Goal 3: CO2 Emissions

Goal Summary Statement: Reduce CO2 emissions to as close to zero as possible while still meeting emis-
sion standards for NOx.
There is growing pressure to reduce emissions of various types from power plants. Reducing emissions of
CO2 is of primary importance, however, because the threat posed by global warming and the corresponding drive
to decarbonize the energy industry makes the status quo increasingly unacceptable. New gas turbine designs that
reduce CO2, however, will not be competitive if they come at the cost of decreased performance or if they prevent
gas turbines from meeting standards for NOx and other harmful emissions.4
In addition to reducing environmental impact, achieving this goal would increase compatibility with renewable
energy sources and the future electrical grid by enabling greater use of renewable fuels.5
The technical risk of this goal is medium because high efficiencies generally require operating at higher pres-
sures/temperatures, where NOx formation rates are accelerated. New combustion paradigms are required to enable
acceptable NOx, while still maintaining adequate turndown.
Power Generation Goal 4: Fuel Flexibility

Goal Summary Statement: Enable gas turbines for power generation to operate with natural gas fuel
mixtures with high proportions (up to 100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various
compositions.
Fuel flexibility is particularly important for power generation and oil and gas applications.6 In addition to
improving fuel flexibility, achieving this goal would reduce environmental impact by decreasing the reliance on
conventional carbon-based fuels, and moving toward zero or near-zero net carbon emissions.
Achieving this goal would increase compatibility with renewable energy sources and the future electrical grid
by having the ability to burn fuels, such as biofuels, derived from renewable energy sources.
The technical risk of this goal is high because of the target to burn 100 percent hydrogen.
Power Generation Goal 5: Levelized Cost of Electricity

Goal Summary Statement: Enable reductions in the levelized cost of electricity from power generation gas
turbines to ensure that these costs remain competitive with the cost of solar and wind power systems over
the long term.
4 Background information on CO emissions is presented in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance
2
Improvement Criteria.”
5 Issues associated with reducing CO emissions through the use of renewable fuels are addressed in the next goal, on fuel flexibility.
2
6 Background information on fuel flexibility is presented in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance

The levelized cost of electricity is defined as
the installed capital costs and ongoing operating costs of a power plant, converted to a level stream of payments over
the plant’s assumed financial lifetime. Installed capital costs include construction costs, financing costs, tax credits,
and other plant-related subsidies or taxes. Ongoing costs include the cost of fuel (for power plants that consume fuel),
expected maintenance costs, and other related taxes or subsidies based on the operation of the plant.7
Levelized cost is becoming one of the key criteria to determine whether a utility company decides to purchase
and operate a gas turbine. It is likely that sales of gas turbines will be negatively impacted once the cost of renewable
energy is consistently undercutting the cost of gas turbines. Two recent assessments predict that this could happen
in the 2020 to 2024 time frame.8,9
It will be challenging both to meet the increasing performance goals and to remain cost competitive with
the renewable energy sources. The ever-changing power generation landscape makes it increasingly difficult to
predict gas turbine research with the highest potential paybacks. For example, large and unforeseen reductions in
the cost of renewable energy could potentially mitigate or reverse long-term projected growth in the demand for
gas turbines for power generation.
Given record-low prices for renewable energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance has stated that “some existing
coal and gas power stations, with sunk capital costs, will continue to have a role for many years, doing a combina-
tion of bulk generation and balancing, as wind and solar penetration increase. But the economic case for building
new coal and gas capacity is crumbling, as batteries start to encroach on the flexibility and peaking revenues enjoyed
by fossil fuel plants.”10 Even so, the pace at which changes in power sources could take place would depend on
many factors, such as the pace at which lower-cost renewable sources of energy could be scaled up and deployed
and the rate at which demand for electricity is growing.
This research area would directly reduce life-cycle costs.11 The technical risk of this goal is high because the
increased efficiency targets will require more expensive solutions such as higher performing materials and more
complex component geometries leading to higher manufacturing costs.
AVIATION
Aircraft engines convert the chemical energy stored in jet fuel to useful propulsive power. Propulsive power
is defined as the product of the thrust force and the flight velocity. Gas turbines are used for aircraft propulsion
in one of three configurations or architectures, either as a turbojet, turbofan, or turboprop. In each of these cases,
a gas turbine serves as the core of the aircraft engine. Turbojet engines use the core exhaust as the direct source
of thrust, with essentially all mechanical energy produced by the turbine module used to drive the compressor
module (and electrical generators for the aircraft electrical system). Turbofan engines use some of the mechanical
energy produced by the turbine module to drive a fan that provides thrust (in addition to the turbine exhaust). The
fan is located within the engine nacelle directly in front of the core. The diameter of the fan blades is larger than
the diameter of the core. Air passing through the fan flows around the core and merges with the turbine exhaust
before exiting the engine. A turboprop is similar to a turbofan, except that a propeller external to the engine nacelle
is used to provide thrust instead of the internally mounted fan.
7 Energy Information Administration, 2018, EIA uses two simplified metrics to show future power plants’ relative economics, Today in
Energy, March 29, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35552.

9 D. Dudley, 2018, Renewable energy will be consistently cheaper than fossil fuels by 2020, report claims, Forbes, January 13, http://bit.ly
/2PWOFCi.
10 Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018, “Tumbling Costs for Wind, Solar, Batteries Are Squeezing Fossil Fuels,” March 28, http://bit.ly
/34CtcTE.
11 Background information on life-cycle costs appears in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance

Modern commercial engine architectures use either turbofans or turboprops, and they contain two rotors or spools.
The first rotor, or low spool, contains the fan or propeller, the lower pressure compressor, and the low-pressure turbine.
The second rotor, or high spool, contains the high-pressure compressor, the combustor, and the high-pressure turbine.
In a turbofan, the ratio of air flow around the core to the air flow through the core is called the bypass ratio.
Aircraft engines with large fans are called high bypass ratio turbofans. The efficiency of a turbofan increases
with bypass ratio. Modern commercial aircraft have engines with high bypass ratios (5 to 12). High bypass ratio
turbofans convert the kinetic energy of the core air flow to propulsive power more efficiently than turbojets and
turbofans with low bypass ratios (1 to 4). High-speed military fighter and attack aircraft require high thrust and a
compact engine, so they are powered by small bypass ratio turbofans, which have higher thrust-to-weight ratios
than the large bypass ratio turbofans or the turboprops used to power commercial aircraft (and military transports
and patrol aircraft). Turboprops are used for aircraft that fly at low speeds and that require high efficiency.
Aggressive Aviation Goal for Future Development

There is one overriding goal for aviation, which follows.
Aviation Goal 1: Fuel Burn

Goal Summary Statement: Develop advanced technologies that will increase thermal efficiency to enable a
25 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to today’s best-in-class turbofan engines for narrow- and wide-body
aircraft, and concomitant reductions in fuel burn for military aircraft.
The overall efficiency of aircraft gas turbine engines is the product of thermal efficiency and propulsive
efficiency. The thermal efficiency is the ratio of the rate of kinetic energy change of the working fluid to the rate
of thermal energy added to the cycle. The drivers of thermal efficiency are the cycle pressure ratio, turbine inlet
temperature, and individual component performance. The propulsive efficiency is the ratio of propulsive power and
the rate of kinetic energy change in the working fluids in the core and fan streams. The main driver of propulsive
efficiency is the fan pressure ratio. Advanced technologies that enable propulsive efficiency improvements are
specific to the aviation industry and were not considered by this committee.
Some of the advanced technologies that improve the thermal efficiency of gas turbines for power generation
and oil and gas applications will also improve efficiency of gas turbines for aircraft.
Today’s best-in-class commercial turbofans achieve 30 to 40 percent overall efficiency. Improving the overall
efficiency of an aircraft engine will result in lower fuel burn. Achieving overall efficiency and, hence, fuel burn
improvements of 25 percent relative to today’s best-in-class turbofan engines would yield 40 to 50 percent overall
efficiency. Reducing the engine weight and drag would also result in lower fuel burn. These advanced engines
would require more efficient thermodynamic cycles, such as pressure gain combustion (PGC), more novel engine
architectures, and more innovative airframe–engine integration architectures.
Today’s best-in-class turbofan engines achieve approximately 50 to 55 percent cruise thermal efficiency.
Turbofan engines that power narrow-body aircraft have approximately 50 percent thermal efficiency, whereas
turbofan engines that power wide-body aircraft have approximately 55 percent thermal efficiency. If current trends
hold, by 2030 advanced technologies will enable thermal efficiency improvements of 20 percent relative to today’s
best-in-class engine cores, which would yield approximately 60 percent and 65 percent cruise thermal efficiency for
engines that power narrow- and wide-body aircraft, respectively. Figure 2.1 shows that core thermal efficiency has
increased by 0.4 percent per year since 1970. Likewise, Figure 2.2 shows that propulsive efficiency has increased
by 0.3 percent per year since 1970. Thus, if current trends hold, by 2030 the propulsive efficiency of new entrants
to the market would be 75 percent or higher, 5 to 10 percent more than current best-in-class turbofans.12
12 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016, Commercial Aircraft Propulsion and Energy Systems Research:
Reducing Global Carbon Emissions, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

FIGURE 2.1 Trend with time of the thermodynamic efficiency of commercial aircraft turbofan engines at cruise. SOURCE: A.H.
Epstein, 2014, Aeropropulsion for commercial aviation in the twenty-first century and research directions needed, AIAA Journal
52(5):901-911, doi:10.2514/1.J052713. Reproduced by permission of United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney.
Achieving this goal would improve overall efficiency via hot section technologies that enable higher turbine
inlet temperatures or lower turbine cooling air levels. In particular, advanced materials and coatings would enable
turbine materials to withstand higher gas temperatures in the turbine main gas path while enabling the engine to
meet its mission life requirements.13 Higher turbine inlet temperatures, however, will increase NOx production in
the combustor. An alternative path to higher thermal efficiency is to reduce the turbine cooling air levels for the
same turbine inlet temperature. Reducing the magnitude of the turbine cooling air flow will reduce the turbulent
mixing between the coolant and the main gas path flow, which improves turbine efficiency. Reducing turbine
cooling flow would also reduce the thermodynamic cycle penalty associated with rerouting compressed air to
the turbine. Novel turbine cooling strategies and advanced, high-temperature materials and coatings technology
would enable turbines to operate with lower cooling levels while enabling the engine to meet its mission life and
emissions requirements.
Achieving this goal would also reduce environmental impact by decreasing CO and CO2 emissions. The com-
bustion of hydrocarbons and air yields CO2 and water vapor as the primary byproducts. Higher engine efficiency
reduces the fuel consumption rate, and, in turn, the generation of CO2. The chemical reactions for jet engines
that operate at high power (i.e., during takeoff and, to a lesser extent, during cruise) with well-mixed combustion
chambers run down to a state of chemical equilibrium, where there are additional products, including CO. Improved
engine efficiency will lower CO concentrations at chemical equilibrium for a well-mixed combustion chamber.
Incomplete combustion, due to inadequate mixing and reaction of fuel and air molecules, will result in higher
CO concentrations than the equilibrium value at combustion chamber pressure and temperatures. Combustion
system design, rather than thermal efficiency, sets the CO concentrations above their chemical equilibrium values.
13 The main gas path consists of those areas of an engine where compression, combustion, and expansion take place.

FIGURE 2.2 Trend with time of commercial aircraft turbofan propulsive efficiency at cruise. SOURCE: A.H. Epstein, 2014,
Aeropropulsion for commercial aviation in the twenty-first century and research directions needed, AIAA Journal 52(5):901-911,
doi:10.2514/1.J052713. Reproduced by permission of United Technologies Corporation, Pratt & Whitney.
At low power (i.e., ground idle and flight idle, which takes place during descent), the combustor flow is not as
well mixed, so the combustion process generates higher CO concentrations than at high power.
Achieving this goal while maintaining fuel flexibility regarding the use of sustainable aviation fuels14 in place
of current fossil-based jet fuel would reduce net life-cycle CO2 emissions. The aviation industry is pursuing an
approach in which sustainable aviation fuels could be used as drop-in fuels, which means that their use would
not require any changes in aircraft or engine fuel systems or airport fuel storage and distribution systems. The
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is striving to eliminate growth in net CO2 emissions even as air
transportation increases. ICAO has determined that stabilizing CO2 growth will require reductions in aircraft fuel
burn, improvements in air traffic management, and substantial use of sustainable aviation fuels.15
Achieving this goal would also reduce life-cycle cost by lowering fuel consumption. Fuel costs are a significant
operating expense for airlines. Jet fuel cost has varied from 33 percent to 24 percent of direct airline operating
costs from 2013 to 2018 and was projected to be 25 percent of airline direct operating costs in 2019.16,17
14 Sustainableaviation fuels are also known as sustainable alternative jet fuels.
15 InternationalCivil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 2019 Environmental Report—Aviation and Environment, http://bit.ly/2CiE8tq, accessed
November 5, 2019.
16 International Air Transport Association (IATA), 2019, “Fuel Fact Sheet,” June, Montreal, Canada.
17 Although the discussion of this goal is framed in terms of improvements to gas turbines for commercial aircraft, accomplishing this goal
would inevitably lead to reduced fuel burn by military aircraft.

The technical risk of this goal is medium for strategies that consist of (1) developing and deploying additive
manufacturing technology, enabling more advanced turbine thermal management techniques, and (2) developing high-
temperature materials and coatings, which enable higher turbine inlet temperatures or lower turbine cooling levels.
An alternative path for achieving greater than 20 percent thermal efficiency improvement relative to today’s
best-in-class turbofan engines is to change the thermodynamic cycle of the aircraft engine to one that contains
pressure gain combustion (PGC). Implementation of PGC has the potential to yield greater than 25 percent thermal
efficiency improvement over today’s turbofans.18 However, the pulsating pressure waves that are a feature of PGC
engines may damage the turbine components, compromising engine reliability, durability, and safety. As a result,
this approach would increase the technical risk of this goal to high.19
OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Gas turbines for oil and gas applications are of many different types and sizes, typically producing power in
the range of 1 to 40 MW. They are used to power natural gas pipeline compressors, gas lift and reinjection com-
pressors, process plant compressors, water and crude oil pumps, and various power generation applications. The
applications can be offshore or land based. These applications typically are fueled by natural gas that is available
on site. Liquid fuels may also be used, typically for start-up. All oil and gas applications require gas turbines to
regularly operate over a wide range of loads, while maintaining a high efficiency. Some applications also require
gas turbines to be shut down and restarted at various frequencies, while other applications are best served by gas
turbines that operate continuously.
The number of gas turbines used to drive pipeline compressors far exceeds the number of gas turbines used
for any other particular oil and gas application. As a result, improvements in gas turbines for pipeline compressors
would have the greatest impact on the oil and gas industry. The committee therefore concluded that the highest-
priority goals and research areas for gas turbines in the oil and gas industry are related to gas turbines that drive
natural gas pipeline compressors. It is expected that improvements in technologies for these gas turbines would
ultimately benefit gas turbines for other oil and gas applications as well.
The United States operates today a network of more than 3 million miles of natural gas pipelines (see
Figure 2.3). These pipelines connect production and storage facilities to each other and to consumers. Centrifugal
compressors are the most common type of compressor used on pipelines. They are the key to providing high
pipeline availability and low energy consumption for energy transport. These gas turbines typically use the gas
transported in the pipeline as fuel. Backup fuel is usually not needed.
Aggressive Oil and Gas Goals for Future Development

There are three goals related to oil and gas applications:
• Fuel Flexibility
• Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance (CBOM)
• Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency
Oil and Gas Goal 1: Fuel Flexibility

Goal Summary Statement: Enable gas turbines for natural gas pipeline compressor stations (and other oil
and gas applications) to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures with high proportions (up to 100 percent) of
hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various compositions.
18 C.A. Nordeen and L.S. Langston, 2018, “There’s a new cycle in town,” Mechanical Engineering 140(7):36-41, http://msaidi.ir/asme
/201807.pdf.
19 PGC is addressed in more detail in Chapter 3, in the sections “Research Topic 6.1: Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion:
Technology” and “Research Topic 7.1: Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: System Layout.”

FIGURE 2.3 Domestic natural gas pipelines. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, 2018, About U.S. Natural Gas
Pipelines.
Currently natural gas pipelines contain only trace amounts of hydrogen, and increasing the amount of hydro-
gen would have to overcome many challenges. For example, the characteristics of hydrogen combustion are very
different than with natural gas.20
Achieving this goal would improve fuel flexibility by allowing current and future gas turbine installations in
pipeline applications to operate on various mixtures of natural gas and hydrogen. It would also reduce environ-
mental impact by reducing the use of carbon-based fuels.
The technical risk of this goal is medium for hydrogen–natural gas fuel mixtures up to about 50 percent
hydrogen. Developing a combustion system that can operate on mixtures with more than 50 percent hydrogen
would have high technical risk.
Oil and Gas Goal 2: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance (CBOM)

Goal Summary Statement: Develop the ability for condition-based operations and maintenance to increase
periods of uninterrupted operation for natural gas pipeline compressor stations to 3 years or more without
reducing availability or reliability.
Condition-based operations and maintenance (CBOM) of gas turbines, for the purpose of this report, are
defined as the capability to optimize the operation, maintenance, repair, and overhaul of gas turbines throughout
their life cycles. CBOM is particularly important for oil and gas operators to reduce both preventive and corrective
maintenance, especially for maintenance that requires shutting down a turbine and interrupting service. CBOM for
20 Background information on fuel flexibility and the combustion of hydrogen is presented in Chapter 1, in the section “Background
Information for the Performance Improvement Criteria.”

oil and gas applications would be of particular value for gas turbines that operate at partial loads for long periods
of time. Advanced CBOM algorithms would assess online operating data to calculate the remaining useful life, the
probability of failure, and the cost of overhaul and repair. Operators and OEMs could then use this information to
decide when to shut down a unit for maintenance.
Achieving this goal would reduce life-cycle cost by enabling operators to minimize the amount of time tur-
bines are shut down for maintenance, facilitate flexible operations from partial load to peak power conditions, and
improve availability, thereby increasing operational efficiency. Typical periods for scheduled maintenance today
are every 6 to 12 months. The ability to operate gas turbines in pipeline operations for extended periods of time
(e.g., 3 years or more) without shutdown or maintenance is particularly important for very remote and unmanned
gas turbine applications. As CBOM capabilities mature, unmanned compressor stations will become more practical
and their use will likely expand, which will further increase the value and utility of related technologies. Advanced
CBOM capabilities would also be of particular value for gas turbines that experience peak load operating condi-
tions that exceed normal operating conditions.
Achieving this goal would also improve the overall efficiency of transporting natural gas by reducing mainte-
nance intervention and unplanned shutdowns. Even gradual improvements in reducing scheduled or unscheduled
downtime would have significant financial benefits to the operator by increasing annual operating hours. Avoiding
unplanned shutdowns also reduces environmental impact by reducing the need for blowdown of individual gas
turbine units or an entire compressor station to clear them of natural gas, thereby releasing natural gas into the
environment. Reducing maintenance and overhaul requirements for gas turbines would also enhance the position
of gas turbines as the pipeline prime mover of choice over reciprocating engines (which have more frequent but
less costly overhauls) and electric motors (which tend to have less maintenance).
The technical risk of this goal is medium because of the time periods involved. Compared to gas turbines for
power generation or aviation—and to existing gas turbines of oil and gas applications—3 years is a very long time
to operate a gas turbine without scheduled maintenance.
Some of the failure modes of gas turbines for natural gas pipeline are due to changes in fuel composition,
some are due to air inlet filtration issues, and some are related to the operation of the gas turbine itself. During
maintenance shutdowns, gas turbine internal components are visually inspected through special borescope openings
in the compressor, combustor, and turbine casings. This is necessary to detect early signs of damage or degrada-
tion that could lead to failure and unplanned shutdowns. Continuous monitoring of gas turbines using new sensors
and sophisticated models for diagnostics would allow the time between regular shutdowns to be greatly extended.
Oil and Gas Goal 3: Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency

Goal Summary Statement: Design gas turbines for pipeline compressor stations (and other oil and gas
applications) that can handle large load swings and operate at partial load with efficiency that exceeds the
efficiency of stations that use compressors driven by electric motors.
Many oil and gas operations require gas compressors and the gas turbines that drive them to operate over a
wide range of loads and speeds. Currently, minimizing the formation of harmful emissions under these varying
operating conditions is achieved largely by maintaining the firing temperature and bleeding off air from the axial
compressor directly into the exhaust system. While this maintains satisfactory emissions over a wider load range,
it significantly reduces efficiency.
Electric motors have a high efficiency under partial load but require the supply of external electricity to
compressor stations that are often remote. In general, operators prefer a gas turbine driver over an electric motor
because the natural gas fuel is readily available.
To better equip natural gas pipelines to support the integration of renewable energy sources, gas turbines for
pipeline compressor stations may need to start, stop, and operate under partial load more frequently in the future.21
Keeping natural gas compressors under pressure while they are shut down avoids releasing natural gas to the
21 Despite the increasing number of starts and stops, rapid start times are not and will not become an important performance parameter.
Natural gas pipelines themselves represent a significant energy storage medium that mitigates sudden changes in the demand for natural gas.

environment. Commercially available natural gas compressors, however, cannot hold pressure indefinitely when
shut down. In addition, blowing down compressor stations that are driven by reciprocating engines and in some
cases electric motors is necessary to reduce the power requirements prior to start. Research to reduce the need for
blowing down all classes of natural gas compressors is ongoing.
In addition to improving gas turbine efficiency under partial load, achieving this goal would reduce life-cycle
cost by reducing fuel consumption and by improving the ability of gas turbines to serve applications where it would
otherwise be required to use compressors driven by electric motors, which have relatively large capital costs if there
are no nearby electric power lines. Improvements necessary to meet this goal may also reduce maintenance costs.
Achieving this goal would reduce environmental impact by reducing CO2 emissions and, possibly, other
harmful emissions.
The technical risk of this goal is medium, as many relevant concepts are known, although they have not yet
matured to the point that they could be introduced into production. New concepts are developing and are at low
technology readiness levels (TRLs) but could be developed to TRL 6 by 2030. Even gradual improvements would
create immediate and significant advantages for gas turbines in pipeline compressor applications.
GOALS: INTERRELATIONSHIPS AND RECOMMENDATION

The interrelationships among the goals are illustrated in Figure 2.4. The red arrows (with an arrowhead at each
end) show where the accomplishment of two goals are mutually supportive to a substantial degree. This is the case
with the efficiency goals for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas and, separately, for the fuel flexibility
goals for power generation and oil and gas.
Power Generation:
Power Generation: Aviation: CO2 Emissions
Efficiency Fuel Burn
Efficiency
Oil and Gas: Power Generation:
Flexible Power Compatibility with
Demand and Renewable Energy
Efficiency Sources
Power Generation:
Power Generation: Fuel Flexibility
Levelized Cost of
Electricity
Oil and Gas: Fuel Flexibility
Condition‐Based
Operations and
Maintenance Oil and Gas:
Fuel Flexibility
FIGURE 2.4 Interrelationships among the high-priority goals. Goals in green are most closely related to efficiency, and goals
in blue are most closely related to fuel flexibility.

The green arrows (with a single arrowhead) show where the accomplishment of one goal will substantially
support the accomplishment of another goal. For example, improving efficiency will directly reduce CO2 emissions.
The committee identified two sets of related goals (efficiency and fuel flexibility) that are of the highest
priority. In Figure 2.4, the goals highlighted in green are most directly related to efficiency, and goals highlighted
in blue are most closely related to fuel flexibility:
• Efficiency
— Power Generation Goal 1: Efficiency
— Aviation Goal 1: Fuel Burn
— Oil and Gas Goal 3: Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency
• Fuel Flexibility22
— Power Generation Goal 4: Fuel Flexibility
— Oil and Gas Goal 1: Fuel Flexibility
RECOMMENDATION: High-Priority Goals. In order to expedite the process of improving and creat-
ing advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines, the
Department of Energy, other government agencies, industry, and academia should pursue the following
goals as a high priority:
Power Generation Gas Turbine Goals

1. Efficiency. Increase combined cycle efficiency to 70 percent and simple cycle efficiency to more
than 50 percent.
2. Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources. Reduce turbine start-up times and improve the
ability of gas turbines operating in simple and combined cycles to operate at high efficiency while
accommodating flexible power demands and other requirements associated with integrating power
generation turbines with renewable energy sources and energy storage systems.
3. CO2 Emissions. Reduce CO2 emissions to as close to zero as possible while still meeting emission
standards for NOx.
4. Fuel Flexibility. Enable gas turbines for power generation to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures
with high proportions (up to 100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various
compositions.
5. Levelized Cost of Electricity. Enable reductions in the levelized cost of electricity from power
generation gas turbines to ensure that these costs remain competitive with the cost of solar and
wind power systems over the long term.
Aviation Gas Turbine Goal

1. Fuel Burn. Develop advanced technologies that will increase thermal efficiency to enable a
25 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to today’s best-in-class turbofan engines for narrow- and
wide-body aircraft, and concomitant reductions in fuel burn for military aircraft.
Oil and Gas Industry Gas Turbine Goals

1. Fuel Flexibility. Enable gas turbines for natural gas pipeline compressor stations (and other oil
and gas applications) to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures with high proportions (up to 100
percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various compositions.
22 Government and industry are supporting substantial efforts to develop and scale up the production of alternative fuels for aviation. One
of the requirements for such fuels, however, is that they meet current specifications for jet fuels so that the alternative fuels can be used in
current fuel distributions systems and in the current fleet of aircraft engines. In other words, in aviation the ability to use alternative fuels is
being accomplished by tailoring alternative fuels to meet the needs of gas turbines rather than changing the design of gas turbines to meet the
needs of alternative fuels. As a result, for aviation applications, developing gas turbines that can accommodate a variety of different fuels is
not a high-priority research and development goal.

2. Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance. Develop the ability for condition-based operations
and maintenance to increase periods of uninterrupted operation for natural gas pipeline compressor
stations to 3 years or more without reducing availability or reliability.
3. Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency. Design gas turbines for pipeline compressor stations (and
other oil and gas applications) that can handle large load swings and operate at partial load with
efficiency that exceeds the efficiency of stations that use compressors driven by electric motors.

High-Priority Research Areas and Topics
This chapter describes 10 high-priority research areas, each of which contains one to three high-priority
research topics. Five of the research areas focus on disciplines; the other five focus on systems:
Disciplines
1. Combustion
2. Structural Materials and Coatings
3. Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines
4. Thermal Management
5. High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments
Systems
6. Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles

7. System Integration
8. Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance
9. Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure
10. Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications
As discussed in the Chapter 4 section “Interrelationship Among Goals, Research Areas, and Research Topics,”
successful completion of each of the research topics will help achieve several of the goals discussed in Chapter 2.
Likewise, as discussed throughout this chapter, the success of each research area is tied to the success of multiple
other research areas.1
1 All but two of the research areas have three research topics. The Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure research area has one
research topic, and the Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications research area has two research topics. The distribution of the research topics is
not intended to indicate that these research areas or their research topics (1) are of less importance than the other research areas or (2) should
receive either more or less resources than the others. Rather, the committee concluded that in most research areas there are multiple research
topics of comparable importance, whereas in the Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure research area, there is a one overriding
research topic. All 10 research areas are of comparable priority. The order in which they appear was selected to facilitate the explanation of each
research area because in some cases the details associated with one research area provide a foundation for understanding other research areas.
39

RESEARCH AREA 1: COMBUSTION

Research Area Summary Statement: Enhance foundational knowledge needed for low-emission combus-
tion systems that (1) can work in the high-pressure, high-temperature environments that will be required
for high-efficiency cycles, including constant pressure and pressure gain combustion systems; and (2) have
operational characteristics that do not limit a gas turbine’s transient response or turndown (i.e., the ability
to operate acceptably over a range of power settings), with acceptable performance over a range of fuel
compositions.
Overview
The combustor has important impacts on emissions, controls the range of alternative fuels that can be used,
and has important influences on the operational limits of a gas turbine.2 This section describes three research topics
that are needed to enable optimal performance and minimal emissions with a range of alternative fuels (e.g., low
carbon fuels) and oxidizers.
Early gas turbine combustion research and development focused on fuel injection technologies that
would (1) produce stable flames that did not blow off, (2) ensure complete combustion, and (3) produced
acceptable levels of harmful emissions. Over the past two decades, increased restrictions on oxides of
nitrogen (NOx) emissions have led to fundamental shifts in combustion design approaches, increasingly
pushing systems toward premixed designs and redirecting significant research and development by gov-
ernment and industry accordingly. This has led to significant research to understand flame stability, emis-
sions, turbulent combustion, and combustion chemistry. More recently, greater interest in improving the
efficiency of gas turbine technologies has pushed research and development to understand these issues at
increasingly severe pressures and temperatures. In addition, there has been growing interest in cycles that
approximate constant volume combustion, such as pulse-detonation or rotating detonation engines. This
has motivated work in detonation limits, detonation wave dynamics, and the transition from deflagration
(in which combustion propagates at subsonic speeds) to detonation (in which combustion propagates at super-
sonic speeds). Last, interest in decarbonizing gas turbine systems and developing systems that enable carbon
capture has motivated interest in alternative fuels (e.g., hydrogen and biofuels) and oxyfuel combustion.
This research area includes three research topics:
• Fundamental Combustion Properties

• Combustion Concepts to Reduce Harmful Emissions at Elevated Temperatures and Pressures
• Operational and Performance Limits on Combustors
Research Topic 1.1

Fundamental Combustion Properties
Research Topic Summary Statement: Investigate fundamental combustion properties that control macro-
system emissions and operability characteristics for constant pressure and pressure gain combustors.
Summary
Combustion systems must meet NOx, carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate emissions specifications, while
enabling sufficient load turndown and operability (i.e., by avoiding key limiting phenomena such as flashback,
blowoff, detonation limits, autoignition, and combustion instability). For a variety of fundamental reasons, com-
bustors have inherent trade-offs among emissions, turndown and operability, and they are generally optimized for
2 A. Amato, M. Cheng, and T. Lieuwen, 2013, Stationary gas turbine combustion: Technology needs and policy considerations, Combustion
and Flame 160:1311-1314, doi:10.1016/j.combustflame.2013.05.001.

HIGH-PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS AND TOPICS 41
a narrow fuel composition specification. Research is needed to better understand fundamental combustion proper-
ties and fluid mechanics (e.g., turbulent flame speeds and flame response to flow disturbances) at pressures and
temperatures of interest), as well as to develop combustion paradigms that are less sensitive to fuel composition.
Moreover, many of these issues involve the coupling between combustion and fluid mechanics (e.g., instabili-
ties of swirling or transverse jets in the presence of combustion) at conditions of interest. While research around
general questions of this nature is commonplace in the combustion community, there is little activity or data at
conditions of interest for gas turbines because relevant facilities are expensive to maintain and operate and they
require specialized staff to manage operational safety issues. For example, the higher temperatures and pressures
associated with some techniques for improving efficiency are pushing combustion physics into regimes of com-
bustion where fuel consumption occurs via autoignition. In contrast, fuel consumption and heat release generally
occur through flame propagation in facilities that operate at lower pressures and temperatures. Similarly, large-
scale computations at conditions of interest become increasingly cost prohibitive, due to the very high Reynolds
numbers encountered at these conditions.
Background
A variety of quantities are needed by designers in development of gas turbine combustors. Properties of inter-
est include the following:
• Flame stability and blowoff: extinction stretch rates, edge flame speeds and limit conditions, flame speeds,
and detonation limits.
• Combustion instability: forced flame response, receptivity of reacting free shear flows to disturbances, and
turbulent flame speed.
• Flame location and position: extinction stretch rates and turbulent flame speed in flame propagation and
autoignition regimes.
• Emissions: high-pressure kinetics.
• Detonation strength: factors influencing the strength and speed of detonations.
As noted previously, acquiring these types of data at conditions of interest is quite challenging.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing development by providing designers with a better knowledge
of critical combustion processes that influence key design decisions, such as where the flame is located, limit
behaviors, and emissions. The ability to accurately predict these behaviors rather than having to measure them
during tests would reduce uncertainties and enable designers to explore fundamentally new designs more boldly,
rather than rely on derivatives with known behaviors.
This research topic could advance the ability to predict relevant knowledge of these properties at conditions of
interest by 2030.3 Providing designers with a priori knowledge of combustion properties will significantly reduce
risk and enable them to evaluate designs during the design stage.
The technical risk of this research topic is medium because required experiments are complex and difficult
and because there is little existing research infrastructure to support them. Requisite data do not exist because the
data are expensive to acquire and relatively few laboratories have the high-pressure capabilities to perform them.
First principles computations are similarly very expensive. Nonetheless, there is no fundamental reason that this
topic cannot be satisfactorily addressed.
3 A projected technology readiness level (TRL) has not been specified for this research topic because it deals with improving scientific
knowledge, not technology development.

Research Topic 1.2

Combustion Concepts to Reduce Harmful Emissions at
Elevated Temperatures and Pressures
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop combustion concepts that emit acceptable levels of harmful
emissions in high-efficiency cycles.
Summary
Combustors that can operate at higher temperatures and pressures will increase gas turbine efficiency. This is true of
gas turbines using either a constant pressure combustion thermodynamic cycle (e.g., a Brayton cycle, which is used by
conventional gas turbines) or a pressure gain combustion (PGC) thermodynamic cycle.4 Unfortunately, the NOx forma-
tion rate increases exponentially with temperature, and it also increases with pressure. Moreover, potential strategies to
reduce NOx emissions may increase CO or particulate emissions. This challenge is relatively new, as conditions in earlier
gas turbine designs made it possible to improve efficiency without increasing NOx though tailored mixing of air and fuel.
As a result, little work has been done to address this challenge. This challenge is also unique to gas turbine applications,
as there are essentially no other technology platforms with combustion at these elevated temperatures and pressures.
Background
Historically, reducing NOx levels in gas turbines with turbine inlet temperatures less than about 1,500°C/2,800°F
has been achieved through premixing of the fuel and air. More recently, some aircraft engine original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs), however, have used staged combustion schemes such as rich-burn, quick-quench, lean burn
(RQL). In either case, advances in materials and cooling technologies have led to higher turbine inlet temperatures
during which significant NOx production occurs, even with perfect premixing. Moreover, gas turbines with PGC
may use nonpremixed combustion concepts and high local temperatures, followed by potentially rapid cooling or
quenching across the post-detonation expansion wave. This approach can lead to higher levels of NOx, particulates,
CO, and unburned hydrocarbons.
New combustion paradigms are needed to enable low NOx emissions when using high turbine inlet temperatures
and/or PGC systems. NOx production is proportional to the NOx formation rate and combustor residence time. Thus,
NOx production can be reduced by developing combustors that (1) minimize NOx formation rates, and/or (2) reduce
residence time while maintaining sufficient turndown and operability characteristics. For example, theoretical work
has demonstrated that distributed fuel injection can reduce NOx emissions by an order of magnitude relative to
conventional dry, low NOx combustor approaches, which are typically used in high-efficiency ground-based gas
turbines.5 This reduction will occur, however, only if mixing from the distributed fuel injection occurs quickly rela-
tive to reactions. Otherwise, distributed fuel injection can actually increase NOx emissions relative to conventional
approaches. Research is needed to develop workable systems whose performance approaches the theoretical limits.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research by developing new paradigms for combustion with
lower emissions. Current designs are essentially derivatives of older ones, with technology focused on tailored
premixing and, more recently, axial staging of fuel. New research could focus on ways to further extend current
capabilities by developing advanced derivatives of current designs and fundamentally new approaches.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 1 to TRL 6 by 2030. Without additional
research, it is likely that the design community will focus on derivatives of current designs to the exclusion of
new combustion designs.
4 For more information on gas turbine thermodynamic cycles, see Box 1.1 in Chapter 1 and the section “Research Area 6: Unconventional
Thermodynamic Cycles” later in this chapter.
5 E. Goh., M. Sirignano, V. Nair, B. Emerson, T. Lieuwen, and J. Seitzman, 2019, Prediction of minimum achievable NO levels for fuel-staged
x
combustors, Combustion and Flame 200:276-285, doi:10.1016/j.combustflame.2018.11.027.

This research topic has medium technical risk because historical experience in fielding low NOx combustion
systems has shown significant field problems with gas turbine operability, durability, and emissions. Nonetheless,
theoretical work has demonstrated that order of magnitude reductions are possible relative to current combustors
with single-point fuel injection, and so progress toward these limits is achievable. Moreover, these concepts can be
incrementally deployed, moving from less to more aggressive, enabling successive reductions in NOx emissions.
PGC increases technical risk, as these systems involve impulsive shock loading on components, raising con-
cerns for life of and wear on components that must operate continuously for several years without replacement.
These technologies will find early adoption in applications, such as missiles or rockets, that do not require a long
life or a long time between inspections. Experience with these applications will provide crucial insights into their
appropriateness for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications.
This research topic applies to all gas turbine applications with turbine inlet temperatures higher than about
1,500°C/2,800°F in markets with NOx restrictions. Depending on the geographic region of the world, these NOx
restrictions affect power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications differently. For example, power genera-
tion is typically subject to the most stringent regulations. NOx limits tend to be the most stringent in the United
States and the European Union, and less stringent in other regions.
Research Topic 1.3

Operational and Performance Limits on Combustors
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop the ability to better understand and predict combustion
operational limits that restrict overall gas turbine transient responses (e.g., varying load rapidly to back up
intermittent renewable energy sources), turndown, and the ability to accommodate variable fuel compositions.
Summary
Combustion systems influence the operational limits of gas turbines and combined cycle plants overall because
of key limiting phenomena such as blowoff, combustion instability, flashback, and autoignition. In pressure gain
systems, they also strongly influence limits on thermal efficiency and performance. These are all unsteady or
transient phenomena that involve flame extinction, flame stability, and flame dynamics in unsteady flows, and
hydrodynamic stability of reacting flows. These phenomena have been heavily researched in the gas turbine
combustion community historically, as they have caused major field problems. Nonetheless, the ability to predict
these phenomena is still sufficiently immature that unexpected behaviors in the field or during tests still routinely
occur. Moreover, addressing these phenomena is critically important, as associated operational limits strongly
influence the overall operational limits and life of the entire gas turbine. Similarly, PGC systems, such as rotating
detonation engines, have been demonstrated as a workable concept in numerous facilities, but the performance of
these systems generally falls well below theoretical.6
Background
Experience over recent decades has shown that key limiting phenomena have surfaced in the field in unexpected
ways, causing damage, delays, and restricting the range of fuels that a gas turbine can use. Because of the need
to balance emissions, turndown, fuel flexibility, and operational limits, difficult trade-offs have been made in the
design stage and surprises routinely occur. For example, combustion instability is one of the highest risks in develop-
ment of new gas turbines for power generation and aviation, because combustion instability often does not present
itself until late in the development process or even after delivery to a customer. Improving the ability to predict the
occurrence of combustion instabilities would reduce overall gas turbine development risk. Blowoff is a particular
safety concern for aviation, so minimizing blowoff risk opens the design space for aircraft gas turbine designers.
6 While PGC systems can theoretically achieve thermal efficiencies that are superior to Brayton cycles, demonstrated PGC system efficien-
cies have not achieved this level of performance for several reasons. In particular, wave strengths are lower than Chapman–Jouget values, and
fuel/oxidizer injection systems have high pressure drops.

Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research by enabling expanded operational envelopes in terms of
turndown, transient response, and operating conditions. In particular, the ability to develop combustion paradigms
that are fundamentally less prone to key limiting phenomena or sensitive to small changes in operating conditions,
designs, or fuel composition would dramatically reduce risk and cost.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 2 to TRL 7 by 2030. These topics are
closely coupled to understanding the fundamental combustion properties outlined in Box 3.1. In many instances,
such as the occurrence of combustion instabilities, a relatively small uncertainty in something like flame position
BOX 3.1
Combustion Phenomena
The combustor influences overall gas turbine performance in several important ways. First, it controls
the overall level of harmful emissions. Second, it influences the operational limits (i.e., the conditions and
rates at which conditions can change) that define where the gas turbine cannot operate with acceptable
performance. Key operational limiters are described below. The first four apply to conventional gas turbine
combustors, in which combustion occurs via deflagration, and the last one applies to pressure gain com-
bustors, in which combustion occurs via detonation:1
Blowoff refers to situations when the flame becomes detached from the location where it is an-
•
chored and is physically “blown off” of the combustor. Blowoff is often referred to as the “static
stability” limit of the combustor.
Flashback occurs when a flame propagates upstream of the region where it is supposed to anchor
•
and into premixing passages that are not designed for high temperatures. Since fuel/air mixing
nozzles are not well cooled, flashback is a serious safety risk. After flashback has occurred, flame
anchoring in the nozzle leads to a fast rise in material temperatures, with subsequent overheat and
failure. Flashback risk increases with combustor pressure and temperature.
Combustion instability refers to damaging pressure oscillations associated with oscillations in the
•
combustion heat release rate. These oscillations cause wear and damage to combustor com-
ponents and, in extreme cases, can cause liberation of pieces into the hot gas path, damaging
downstream turbine components.
Autoignition refers to the homogeneous ignition of the reactive mixture upstream of the combustion
•
chamber. Similar to flashback, it results in chemical reactions and hot gases in premixing sections,
but its physical origins are quite different from those of flashback. Rather than the flame propagat-
ing upstream into the premixing section, autoignition involves spontaneous ignition of the mixture
in the premixing section. Both flashback and autoignition are phenomenon unique to combustors in
which fuel and air are premixed before the combustion chamber. Autoignition can also occur in the
combustor itself, particularly at the high pressures and temperatures of high-efficiency machines.
While autoignition as the dominant means of fuel consumption (rather than flame propagation) does
change the controlling physics of the combustion process, autoignition in the combustor does not
necessarily introduce safety and operability concerns as does autoignition in premixing passages.
As with flashback, the risk of autoignition increases with combustor pressure and temperature.
Detonation limits refer to conditions for which a detonation can be sustained. These are a function
•
of fuel composition, pressure, temperature, and fuel-to-air ratio.
1 T. Lieuwen et al., 2008, Burner development and operability issues associated with steady flowing Syngas fired
combustors,” Combustion Science and Technology, 180:6:1169-1192, doi:10.1080/00102200801963375.

(that, in turn, is influenced by the turbulent flame speed) means that stability boundaries cannot be accurately
predicted.
This research topic has high technical risk because current design paradigms have inherent trade-offs between
emissions, turndown, and operational limits. Better understanding of fundamental combustion properties will enable
better predictive capabilities to prevent surprises and enable designers to identify optimal conditions. Better yet
would be new combustion approaches that are less sensitive to uncertainties and variations in operating conditions
and fuel composition.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas turbine applications because the
combustor inherently limits operational performance in all three applications.
Interrelationships with Other Research Areas

Key interrelationships between this research area and the other research areas are shown in Figure 3.1. The
green arrows (with a single arrowhead) show where the accomplishment of one research area will substantially
support the accomplishment of another research area. The red arrows (with an arrowhead at each end) show where
two research areas are mutually supportive to a substantial degree. Research areas that do not have a strong inter-
relationship with the combustion research area are not shown.
Additive
Manufacturing
High‐Fidelity Integrated
for Gas Turbines
Simulations and
Validation Experiments
Gas Turbines
in Pipeline
Applications
Combustion
Structural
Materials
and Coatings
System
Integration
Unconventional
Thermodynamic
Cycles Thermal
Management
FIGURE 3.1 Key interrelationships between the Combustion research area and the other research areas.

RESEARCH AREA 2: STRUCTURAL MATERIALS AND COATINGS

Research Area Summary Statement: Develop (1) the technology required to produce ceramic matrix
composites (CMCs); (2) advanced computational models; and (3) advanced metallic material and compo-
nent technologies that would improve the efficiency of gas turbines and reduce their development time and
life-cycle costs.
Overview
From the start of development and introduction of the gas turbine into use, the development and introduction of
advanced materials has been critical. During World War II, early jet engines were severely limited in performance
due to the limitation of hot gas path materials. The English Gloster aircraft powered by the Whittle jet engine that
first achieved flight in 1941 had the advantage of using nickel alloy turbine blades that could be designed without
cooling. On the other hand, the famous German Messerschmitt Me262 powered by the Junkers Jumo jet engine
was limited to using steel alloy blades due to the lack of access to nickel alloys. This necessitated the complex
and costly design of hollow blades that were internally cooled.
To allow higher hot gas path temperature and increased thermal efficiency of the gas turbine, significant
progress has been made in the development of high-temperature structural materials, coatings, and manufacturing
processes. Early gas turbine engines had a thermal efficiency of approximately 30 percent, compared to current
gas turbine engines that reach approximately 50 to 55 percent. To attain current goals for thermal efficiency and
fuel burn, advanced high-temperature technologies are required to enable higher temperatures in the hot gas path.
• CMC Performance and Affordability

• Physics-Based Lifing Models7
• Advanced Alloy Technologies
The scope of all three research topics includes both static and rotating components. Advances in these and
related topics would enable substantial improvements in gas turbine efficiency and durability. For example, one
related technology of particular importance is the development of environmental barrier coatings.8
Research Topic 2.1

CMC Performance and Affordability
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop processing methods to manufacture higher quality silicon
carbide (SiC) fibers at a lower cost than is currently possible, supporting widespread implementation of
ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) for hot gas path applications within gas turbines.
Summary
Widespread utilization of components that incorporate very high-temperature CMCs (that are suitable for
surface temperatures up to and exceeding 1,500°C/2,700°F) is hindered by the very high cost of fibers and the
high cost of current composite manufacturing processes. Research to address this issue includes optimized CMC
7 A lifing model is essentially a lifetime prediction model that predicts either total time to failure or the number of operational cycles to
failure for a particular component under a presumed set of operating or environmental conditions, operational modes, loading or power level,
and so on.
8 An environmental barrier coating is a coating system that is applied to a CMC to provide protection from oxidation, moisture-induced
degradation, and calcium, magnesium, and alumina silicate (CMAS)-induced degradation. It also provides thermal insulation. The goal would
be to develop environmental barrier coatings that are suitable for the same conditions as the underlying CMCs. (See research topic 2.1,
CMC Performance and Affordability.)

manufacturing processes, process modeling, and understanding to effectively increase production rates. CMC
components are manufactured using ceramic fibers in a ceramic matrix. The composite requires a high-strength,
refractory fiber that can sustain thermal excursions. High-strength, creep-resistant, oxygen-free SiC fibers
provide these properties. SiC fiber is manufactured by a limited number of suppliers, each with unique process-
ing and chemistry. This drives the need to optimize and balance chemical compositions, material properties,
and cost.
CMC development and maturation investment activities have been ongoing for more than 30 years, with
General Electric’s private investment exceeding $1.5 billion in the past decade. Early development and invest-
ment were supported by the Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DoD), and NASA. There
is renewed interest in this field now that significant investment has been made in fiber manufacturing capacity.
This increased capacity expands the ability to support broader applications of CMCs. Given this situation, it
is important to address the limitations of current processes for manufacturing SiC fibers and take advantage
of higher quality fibers that provide greater capabilities at lower costs.9 These advanced higher quality CMC
fibers would enable higher temperatures in hot gas path, particularly for combustor liners and for rotating and
static airfoils within the turbine module. Higher operating temperatures would reduce the amount of cooling
air that must be diverted from thrust and enable fuel to be combusted more completely. The expected benefits
include a reduction in fuel burn and CO2 of up to 2 percent,10 improvements in gas turbine efficiency, improved
thrust (for aviation applications), and a reduction in the cost of electricity (for power generation applications). 11
Background
Advanced materials such as CMCs have played a key role in advancing gas turbine performance and efficiency.
Gas turbines employ the Brayton cycle in their operation. A critical parameter for high thermal efficiency is the
high cycle pressure ratio, which in turn drives high turbine flow path temperatures. Turbine flow path temperatures
are generally higher than the thermal limits of the component materials. Therefore, air from the compressor cools
the components by a combination of internal and external flow path cooling. Minimizing the required cooling flow
increases the overall efficiency of the cycle. Hence the need for developing and maturing advanced material tech-
nologies with improved high-temperature capability, such as CMCs [see Figure 3.2].
Overall, the introduction of CMCs enables a fuel burn reduction of up to 2 percent in aviation applications; few
other technologies in today’s pipeline have this much capability for fuel burn reduction. Additionally, the material
density of CMCs is one-third that of today’s nickel-based superalloys, enabling a reduction in the turbine component
weight of more than 50 percent.12
SiC fiber undergoes two coating steps to apply thin coatings on each filament in the tow bundle using chemical
vapor deposition processes. The coated fiber is then drum-wound to create a unidirectional tape material. Research
is needed to create an improved SiC fiber that possesses improved strength retention, modulus, and creep resis-
tance properties with the key characteristics: stoichiometric carbon-to-silicon ratio, protected grain boundaries,
low residual oxygen content, and no foreign phases.
9 J. Steibel, 2019, Ceramic matric composites taking flight at GE Aviation, American Ceramic Society Bulletin 98:30-33, https://ceramics
.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/April-2019_Feature.pdf.
10 Ibid.
11 As noted in the preceding section on the combustion research area, higher turbine inlet temperatures tend to increase the production of
NOx. Research to address this issue is described in the section “Research Topic 1.2, Combustion Concepts to Reduce Harmful Emissions at
Elevated Temperatures and Pressures.”
12 J. Steibel, 2019, Ceramic matric composites taking flight at GE Aviation, American Ceramic Society Bulletin 98:30-33, https://ceramics
.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/April-2019_Feature.pdf.

FIGURE 3.2 Left: Microstructure showing ceramic matrix, SiC fibers, and boron nitride-based coating. Right: CMC stage 1
shroud, GE LEAP engine. The outer, white coating on the shroud acts as both an environmental barrier coating and a clearance
control coating. SOURCE: Reprinted from G.S. Corman and K.L. Luthra, 2017, “Development History of GE’s Prepreg Melt
Infiltrated Ceramic Matrix Composites Material and Applications,” Reference Module in Materials Science and Materials
Engineering, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-803581-8.10001-3, copyright 2017, with permission from Elsevier.
Benefit
As stated in the summary above, the benefits of higher quality CMCs include improved gas turbine efficiency
as a result of higher operating temperatures and reduced cooling air requirements, as well as more efficient com-
bustion, thereby reducing CO2 emissions.13 Reducing the costs of higher quality CMCs will enable them to be
adopted earlier across a broader range applications.
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research as follows:
• Develop an optimum SiC fiber using cost-effective polymer processing routes that produce fiber with excellent
strength retention, modulus, and creep-resistance properties with the key characteristics: stoichiometric ratio
or carbon to silicon, protected grain boundaries, low residual oxygen content, and no foreign phases.
• Target productivity improvements related to in-process controls, statistical monitoring, digitization, and
automation.
• Provide building blocks to enable an additional 170°C/300°F of temperature capability beyond current
CMC technology, thus enabling an increase of 450°C/800°F over today’s nickel-based materials.
Recent investments in SiC fiber manufacturing capacity (including U.S. Government Title III14) within the
United States allows domestic control over productivity improvements and provides facilities to focus process
development and demonstrate product improvements. This research would enable a unified processing approach
to advance from TRL 3 to TRL 6 or more by 2030 because the proposed program would highly leverage proven
mature processing technology for SiC fiber.
This research topic has medium technical risk because of the limited engineering and manufacturing
resources with appropriate materials expertise to support high-quality SiC production. The unique processing
systems used by current SiC fiber manufacturers introduce variation in the characteristics of the SiC fiber. A
large percentage of the current SiC fiber manufacturing capacity is committed to meeting production volumes
supporting current applications, which limits the availability of facilities for assessing potential improve-
ments to manufacturing processes without interrupting highly valued production time. The lack of a dedicated
research facility that includes a pilot production line inhibits process optimization studies of key fiber process
variables.
13 G.
Gardiner, 2017, The next generation of ceramic matrix composites, CompositesWorld, April, http://bit.ly/2qvpcVV.
14 U.S. Government Title III—Expansion of Productive Capacity and Supply: Authorizes appropriate incentives to create, expand, or
preserve domestic industrial manufacturing capabilities for industrial resources, technologies, and materials needed to meet national security
requirements (includes homeland security).

This research topic applies to both power generation and aviation gas turbine applications because increas-
ing the maximum operating temperature broadens the use of CMCs in hot gas path components. CMCs offer the
potential to increase current gas path temperatures by up to 450°C/800°F. This applies to both aviation and power
generation gas turbine hot gas path components of combustor liners, rotating and static airfoils and shrouds in the
high-pressure turbine, and with potential use in the low-pressure turbine (and, perhaps, oil and gas applications),
if costs are reduced sufficiently.
Research Topic 2.2

Physics-Based Lifing Models
Research Topic Summary Statement: Establish physics-based lifing models that address environmental
degradation of hot section turbine materials.
Summary
This research topic would develop models of environmental degradation of materials in the hot section of the
main gas path. These models will be particularly useful to guide the development of advanced materials, manu-
facturing technologies, and digital twin infrastructure.15
Models to be developed will address the following damage modes:
• Hot corrosion and oxidation of metallic structural materials and coatings;

• Molten salt-induced high-temperature stress corrosion cracking;
• Hot corrosion, oxidation, moisture-induced degradation, calcium-magnesium-alumino-silicate (CMAS)-
induced degradation and erosion of thermal and environmental barrier coatings; and
• Long-term retention of CMC mechanical properties at extreme turbine operating temperatures.
Physics-based lifing models will be validated through laboratory testing that reliably and accurately predicts
field performance.
This research topic is critical for attaining and maintaining the thermal efficiency goals of future advanced
gas turbines over their service life. Relevant research is currently lacking. The environmental degradation modes
and the models relating to these modes are unique to the main gas path of gas turbines for all three applications.
Background
The hot section components of a gas turbine experience extreme conditions, including exposure to high stresses
and corrosive environments and materials, while operating at a significant fraction of their melting point. In order
to maximize thermal efficiency, these components are pushed to extreme temperatures that challenge state-of-
the-art materials, including nickel-based single-crystal superalloys and advanced thermal barrier coating systems.16
This presents numerous challenges to gas turbine manufacturers, as the increased operating temperatures that
drive higher thermal efficiency also accelerate environmental damage. Further, these damage modes are diverse
in rate and mechanism, and include high-temperature oxidation, hot corrosion (deposit-induced high-temperature
corrosion, commonly caused by sulfate-rich deposits), particle erosion, spallation of thermal barrier coatings, and
CMAS degradation of thermal barrier coatings systems.
15 A digital twin is a virtual representation of an operational gas turbine. For more information on manufacturing technologies and digital
twins, see the sections “Research Area 3: Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines” and “Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Support-
ing Infrastructure,” below.
16 The term “thermal barrier coating” refers to the coating system, which typically consists of metallic and ceramic coatings applied to a
structural alloy. The metallic coating provides oxidation protection, and it bonds the ceramic coating, which provides thermal insulation, to
the underlying structure.

FIGURE 3.3 Left: Internal view of 30 MW gas turbine. Right: First-stage gas turbine blade damaged by hot corrosion.
SOURCE: S. Rani, A. Agrawal, and V. Rastogi, 2017, Failure analysis of a first stage IN738 gas turbine blade tip cracking in
a thermal power plant, Case Studies in Engineering Failure Analysis 8:1-10, doi:10.1016/j.csefa.2016.11.002.
The increase in life-cycle cost associated with these environmental damage modes can be measured in
millions of dollars annually for a large power generation gas turbine. In an aircraft gas turbine engine, failure
of a high-pressure turbine blade can result in an unscheduled engine removal, potential disruption to service
for the airline, and, in the worst case, flight safety risk. Analogous costs are incurred upon failure of a gas
turbine in service for power generation or oil and gas applications. Figure 3.3 shows an example of a high-
pressure turbine blade in an industrial gas turbine that has failed during service as a result of high-temperature
corrosion.
The ability to reliably predict which damage modes will be active for a given application and the rate at which
they will progress will enable (1) efficient development and optimization of advanced materials that are resistant
to these damage modes, and (2) implementation of an advanced digital twin infrastructure.17
As discussed in the section “Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure,” a digital
twin infrastructure supports digital twins by storing and retrieving very large quantities of data and processing
the data using validated lifing models of turbine operation and related processes to develop and maintain the
digital twin. For example, the infrastructure requires a combination of sophisticated sensor technology and
location-specific, integrated, probabilistic lifing models for the various degradation modes mentioned above,
among others. The models will need to account for all aspects of gas turbine operations, such as mission profile,
ambient temperature, environmental contaminants, and cycle time. Input data that need to be captured include
all relevant gas stream temperatures; thermal gradients; gas composition in the combustion and secondary
flow paths; and particulate matter ingestion rate, size distribution, composition, and deposition rate on various
surfaces.
The ability to generate physics-based predictions is a function of the availability of all relevant inputs, many
of which are currently lacking. These predictions are of primary importance for the development of advanced
materials and for implementation of advanced digital twins. It is expected that physics-based lifing models will
17 See the section “Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure,” below.

be the most crucial but also the most challenging aspect of developing advanced digital twins and infrastructure.
To be effective, physics-based models will need to represent the complex environment distress mechanisms that
occur in service. These degradation modes can occur from the combined effects of oxidation, hot corrosion, mois-
ture, and particulate deposits. Computational means to predict the distress observed in service do not exist, and so
this information must be obtained by experimentation, testing, and characterization of hardware returning from
service. Semi-empirical and machine-learning enhanced models may supplement development and implementa-
tion. In addition, Research Topic 5.2 Coordinated Experimental Research (see below) is focused on experimental
research to validate numerical simulations, and the scope of that research encompasses some phenomena that are
relevant to the development of physics-based lifing models.
The challenges associated with developing advanced lifing models for conventional materials are especially
difficult to overcome for materials such as CMCs. Operation of CMCs and their associated environmental bar-
rier coatings at temperatures up to the goal temperatures of 1,500°C/2,700°F and beyond will almost certainly
aggravate hot corrosion and the other damage modes listed above.18 Life shortfalls could reduce gas turbine
service intervals for components with CMCs by orders of magnitude relative to their nickel-based counterparts.
Additional degradation modes will very likely arise as CMC components accumulate more time in service,
creating currently unforeseen durability challenges. A concerted effort is required to understand the mecha-
nistic aspects of these degradation modes and develop quantitative descriptions of them for incorporation into
lifing models.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research by (1) enabling the design of future damage-resistant
materials and (2) reducing life-cycle cost by giving operators information on precisely when gas turbines need
to be taken out of service for maintenance. Achieving the first goal would improve turbine thermal efficiency by
enabling operation at peak materials temperature limits. Achieving the second goal would improve life-cycle cost
by potentially eliminating unscheduled gas turbine downtime or extending gas turbine operating time. In addition,
component performance feedback from an advanced digital twin infrastructure provides a path for continuous
improvement to the physics-based life models. Useful models that aid in the prediction of environmental distress
in the gas turbine are nonexistent.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 6 by 2030. The need to improve
thermal efficiency in gas turbines will drive increased operating temperatures and exacerbate the impact of envi-
ronmental distress. Developing physics-based models and a digital twin infrastructure will reduce the funding
level and development time needed to bring to market the advances that could result from this research topic.
Expertise and capability are in place in government laboratories, universities, and industry to make the projected
advances. Given the current situation of gas turbine operation being limited by environmental degradation and
the understanding that environmental distress will become more life limiting with projected increases in main gas
path temperatures, this research will become more important.
This research topic has medium technical risk because advances have been made in the basic understanding of
the physics-based mechanisms of many of the modes of environmental degradation.19 Understanding the mecha-
nisms of environmental distress is the first step in establishing physics-based models. One risk is the appearance
of unknown degradation modes at higher turbine operating temperatures.
This research topic would significantly reduce life-cycle costs and improve thermal efficiency for power
generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications.
18 N.P. Padture, 2019, Environmental degradation of high-temperature protective coatings for ceramic-matrix composites in gas-turbine
engines,” npj Materials Degradation 3(11), doi:10.1038/s41529-019-0075-4.

19 Many chemical reactions occur in the gas path, and the rate at which those reactions take place typically increases as temperatures rise.
Mechanisms of particular interest at higher temperatures include oxidation and the formation of new phases of materials in the gas stream that
can accelerate degradation of gas turbine coatings and structural materials.

Research Topic 2.3

Advanced Alloy Technologies
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced high-temperature alloys and component design
concepts for these alloys.
Summary
The high temperatures required in the main gas path to meet gas turbine efficiency goals will require the use
of CMCs as well as metallic components that can be used at temperatures exceeding those of current designs.
Advanced, high-temperature metallic components enable the use of CMCs. Current research related to metallic
components that could be used in the main gas path and allow the use of CMCs to their full potential is very
limited.
This research topic would develop new alloy concepts such as high-entropy alloys, higher-temperature tita-
nium alloys, cobalt-based superalloys, and refractory alloys.20 Variants of these classes of alloys would need to be
developed to enable their use in additive manufacturing. Also, new advanced metallic component designs includ-
ing hybrid turbine disks21 consisting of multimicrostructures and single-crystal rim/multicrystalline bore concepts
will be needed. Disks with single-crystal rims and a polycrystalline bore are probably not viable for large power
generation turbines. Hybrid disks with steel bores and superalloy rims may be possible, but it would be difficult
to accommodate the different coefficients of thermal expansion of the steel and superalloys. Combining new
physics-based tools with emerging tools based on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning would enable
alloys such as those mentioned above to be examined in much more detail, at lower cost, and in less time that has
been possible using traditional development processes and tools.22,23 Application of this technology to very high
temperature materials outside of gas turbines is limited.
Background
Nickel-based superalloys have been used in gas turbines for more than 50 years. For much of this time, the
aerospace industry has been able to rely on continued development of nickel alloy classes that are produced by
directional solidification (e.g., CMSX-4, René N5, and PWA 1484) or by wrought processing paths (e.g., Waspaloy,
IN718, and U720). These classes of alloys have reached their operational temperature limits with current gas turbine
designs. As new requirements have been established to increase efficiency, decrease weight, and reduce emissions,
it has become necessary to increase main gas path temperature. The increase in temperature drives the need for
alloy technologies that can operate at higher temperatures and still meet design life requirements.
As the gas turbine industry utilizes CMCs for specific components to meet the higher operating temperature
requirements of gas turbines with improved efficiency, it will become increasingly important to consider metallic
gas turbine components that will also be required to operate at higher temperatures. In order to take full advantage
of the higher temperature capability of CMCs, the temperature of the entire hot gas path would increase. Most of
the components in the hot gas path are currently fabricated from alloys. Advanced high-temperature alloy technol-
ogy development has generally been focused on (1) directional solidification casting technology, (2) nickel-based
superalloy chemical composition development for turbine blades and vanes, and (3) powder metallurgy-based
superalloys for disk (rotor) applications. Research and development to increase temperature capability has reached
diminishing returns. Additive manufacturing and the ability to manufacture components with advanced cooling
20 High-entropy alloys are typically made with five or more elements and consist of a solid solution. Refractory alloys retain favorable
mechanical properties at very high temperatures. Examples include tungsten, niobium, and molybdenum.
21 The gas turbine disk is also referred to as a rotor.
22 R. Ramprasad, R. Batra, G. Pilania, A. Mannodi-Kanakkithodi, and C. Kim, 2017, Machine learning in materials informatics: Recent
applications and prospects, npj Computational Materials 3(54), doi:10.1038/s41524-017-0056-5.

23 There are some common elements to the development of new tools relevant to this research topic and those addressed in the section
“Research Area 3: Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines,” below.

configurations will require the development of suitable new alloys. Issues with cracking, hot tearing, and the unique
grain structures associated with the emerging suite of processes will need to be understood and addressed. Future
development required to allow CMC components to reach their full potential in terms of temperature capability
will need to focus on increasing the temperature capability of a large number of the metallic components in the
main gas path for which CMCs are unsuitable. These components include blades and vanes, rotors, cases, shafts,
seals, and bearing materials.
The most advanced high-temperature materials, such as single-crystal airfoils and advanced corrosion and
thermal barrier coatings, are used in the high-pressure turbine and combustor, which are the highest temperature
sections of the gas turbine. As the temperature of the main gas path of the gas turbine increases, advanced high-
temperature material technologies will be needed in additional areas of the gas turbine. The application of coat-
ings to protect components such as cases and disks from corrosion will need to function for thousands of hours
of operation without reducing the base alloy mechanical properties.
Gas turbine components have been largely limited to the production of components comprising a single
alloy composition and single manufacturing process. A hybrid component is manufactured from materials that
have dissimilar properties. The ability to use hybrid structures increases design options and flexibility by provid-
ing a component with more optimum, location-specific properties. Hybrid turbine disks, for example, are being
developed that comprise alloys that have distinctly different alloy compositions and are produced by distinctly
different manufacturing processes than each other. The hybrid turbine disk shown in Figure 3.4 illustrates a
turbine disk bore region that consists of a polycrystalline alloy produced by forging one alloy that has itself
FIGURE 3.4 Gas turbine hybrid disk. SOURCE: M.D. Hathaway, 2015, “Compact Gas Turbine Sub-Project, TC 4.2 Compact,
High Cycle Pressure Ratio (50+) Gas Generator,” Icing Hazards Workshop, January 28–29, 2015, NASA Glenn Research
Center, https://go.nasa.gov/2JVsV6g.

been produced by a powder metallurgy process. The rim of the turbine disk consists of an alloy that is produced
by a single-crystal casting process. The separately manufactured sections of the turbine disk are then bound to
each other using a joining process such as inertia bonding. The polycrystalline alloy bore would provide low-
temperature burst strength where that property is required, and the single-crystal alloy rim would provide high-
temperature creep strength where that property is required.
Some alloy technologies have the potential to exceed the temperature capability of the latest generation of
nickel-based superalloys. Refractory alloys have the potential to provide both superior high-temperature mechanical
properties and ductility. Niobium-based and molybdenum-based refractory alloys strengthened with intermetal-
lic compounds have been developed. Thus far, however, high-temperature oxidation and significant processing
challenges have prevented their use in gas turbines. New refractory-based high-entropy alloys, which contain
equiatomic mixtures of multiple refractory elements, demonstrate unusually high strength at temperatures above
1,100°C/2,000°F, but research on this class of materials is still at TRL 1. New manufacturing technologies, such as
additive manufacturing, may be used to fabricate unique microstructures that address previously identified shortfalls
in properties for refractory alloys. Because cobalt-based alloys have such a high melting point, they also have the
potential to be used at temperatures exceeding those of current nickel-based alloys.
Improving the capabilities of lower temperature alloy systems, such as those based on titanium, magnesium,
and aluminum, would also be beneficial for fan and compressor components. These materials offer strength-
to-density ratios at high temperatures that exceed the capability of current state-of-the-art high-temperature
composite materials. Development of processing models and integrated computational materials engineering
tools24 would further enable the use of materials in these classes while improving product yield and lowering
purchase costs.
Current approaches to material development are largely experiential driven. The ability to establish new
materials computationally using first principles calculations, physics-based models, and AI methodologies would
allow engineers to design and mature materials that are optimized for specific applications much faster than is
currently possible.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research by providing the technology that is required to operate
gas turbines at main gas path temperatures required to meet thermal efficiency goals. In addition, the successful
development and utilization of advanced, high-temperature alloy technologies will be essential in meeting life-
cycle cost goals by increasing gas turbine service life. Current gas turbine designs are limited by the maximum
temperature at which available materials can be used and still meet life requirements.
This research topic comprises many individual technologies related to the development of high-temperature
alloy technologies. Expertise and capability are in place in government laboratories, universities, and industry to
make substantial advances by 2030. Elements of this research topic could advance some relevant technology from
TRL 1 to TRL 9 by 2030. There is low technical risk in advancing the technologies applicable to hybrid disks
to progress from the current TRL 3 to TRL 9 by 2030. The basic manufacturing processes required to make this
technology successful are known. For technologies related to high-entropy alloys, much fundamental work needs
to be done, and it is more realistic to predict that this technology could advance from TRL 1 to TRL 4 by 2030.
Work in this area faces medium technical risk.
This research topic applies to gas turbine applications for power generation, aviation, and the oil and gas
industry because of the similarity in the materials used and turbine component designs.
24 Integrated computational materials engineering is the integration of materials information, captured in computational tools, with engi-
neering product performance analysis and manufacturing-process simulation. National Research Council, 2008, Integrated Computational
Materials Engineering: A Transformational Discipline for Improved Competitiveness and National Security, The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C., p. 9, doi:10.17226/12199.

Additive
Manufacturing
for Gas
Turbines
Structural
Materials and Thermal
Coatings Management
Simulations and
Combustion Validation Experiments
Digital Twins and
Their Supporting
Infrastructure
FIGURE 3.5 Key interrelationships between the Structural Materials and Coatings research area and other research areas.

relationship with the structural materials and coatings research area are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 3: ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING FOR GAS TURBINES

Research Area Summary Statement: Integrate model-based definitions of gas turbine materials (those
already in use as well as advanced materials under development), materials processes, and manufacturing
machines with design tools and shop floor equipment to accelerate design and increase component yield while
reducing performance variability.
Overview
As noted in Chapter 1, additive manufacturing is a global technology trend that will benefit a wide array of
industrial applications. This research area will develop turbine-specific design and manufacturing approaches
for three-dimensional (3D)-printed turbine components. Technology opportunities exist in integrated design of
novel, cooled components, new high-temperature alloys, and morphological control of microstructure for tailored
properties. These advances are quite challenging because they must be implemented and ultimately qualified in
the extreme conditions within a gas turbine. Key benefits for gas turbines are reduced weight, reduced part count,
access to new design spaces, and reduced development time.

Additive manufacturing has evolved dramatically over the past 30 years, and the rate of change continues
to increase. Additive manufacturing emerged commercially in 1987 with stereolithography from 3D Systems, a
process that uses a laser to solidify thin layers of a liquid polymer that is sensitive to ultraviolet light. The SLA-1
became the first commercially available additive manufacturing system in the world, and in 1988 Asahi Denka
Kogyo, Ltd., introduced the first epoxy resin for stereolithography machines. Selective laser sintering became
available in 1992, using heat from a laser to fuse powder materials. In 1997, AeroMet developed a process called
laser additive manufacturing that used a high-power laser to weld powdered titanium alloys, followed quickly by
Optomec, which commercialized its laser powder forming system for fabricating metal parts based on technology
developed at Sandia National Labs. Extrude Hone (now ExOne) introduced another additive manufacturing process
in 1999 with a system based on 3D inkjet printing technology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
to build metal parts. In 2001, Generis GmbH commercialized a system that used an inkjet printing technique to
fuse sand to produce sand cores and molds for metal castings. By 2006, direct metal laser melting had evolved to
include stainless steel and cobalt-chrome materials; and Arcam was distributing electron beam melting systems
for metal powders. Concept Laser soon followed with the M2 system for processing reactive materials such as
aluminum and titanium for direct metal laser melting.25
Standardization took a big step forward in 2009 when the ASTM International Committee F42 on Additive
Manufacturing Technologies published standard terminology for the industry. In 2011, a cooperative agreement
was announced between the ASTM International Committee F42 and the ISO Technical Committee 261 on
Additive Manufacturing to reduce duplication of effort. In 2012, General Electric (GE) Aviation purchased Morris
Technologies and Rapid Quality Manufacturing, which were pioneers in additive manufacturing for aerospace
applications. Key acquisitions followed in 2016 of Arcam AB (Sweden) and Concept Laser (Germany), which are
both machine manufacturers.
Direct metals processing technologies have garnered significant interest and growth based on the possibility of
novel designs, combined with mechanical properties that are nearly equivalent to wrought alloys. The adoption of
metal-based additive manufacturing has continued to accelerate, with the biomedical and aerospace communities
leading the way. Feature resolution and process controls have continually improved, with applications touching
on a broad range of industries, including dental and medical, industrial, aerospace, jewelry, and even sand-casting
molds.
Designers of industrial products generally leverage a full range of material and manufacturing options at their
disposal for the development of cost-effective components with optimal performance characteristics. Additive
manufacturing presents pathways to previously inaccessible design spaces, motivating the development of a new
suite of responsive design tools that couple with manufacturing simulation in order to maximize the advantages
of additive manufacturing. The digital artifacts of this new design-for-manufacturing process26 can be captured in
a digital thread infrastructure,27 which enables information sharing across the digital infrastructure to improve the
performance of the product design and manufacturing process.28
While there are many potential avenues for additive manufacturing, the design of new high-temperature
materials compatible with these layer-by-layer manufacturing approaches promises improved system performance
enabled by combining new materials with innovative component designs. Controlling local grain structure promises
further optimization.
Advances in integrated sensing, autonomous analysis of sensor data, and process correction will be required
to enable high-quality, high-manufacturing yields, and rapid feedback to the design process. Challenges for addi-
tive manufacturing of particular relevance to gas turbines include the ability to successfully manage potentially
damaging process-induced phenomena such as increased distortion and cracking, print defects (e.g., lack of fusion
25 T.Wohlers and T. Gornet, 2013, “History of Additive Manufacturing,” Wohlers Report, http://wohlersassociates.com/history2013.pdf.
26 A design-for-manufacturing process is an integrated engineering process in which manufacturing capabilities and constraints are
considered during component and system design in order to optimize performance while minimizing manufacturing risk and cost.
27 See the section “Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure,” below, for more information.
28 M. Helu and T. Hedberg, Jr., 2016, “Data Infrastructure and Management for the Digital Thread in Manufacturing,” IMTS 2016
Conference (#IMTS17), September 13, 2016, Chicago, Ill., http://bit.ly/2Cj9FLz.

and gas porosity), and lower mechanical performance due to varied bulk and surface structure quality. This will
require mastery of the complex physics of these printing processes, including high and rapidly varying temperature
gradients, complex melt pool fluid flow phenomena, widely varying solidification morphologies, and residual
stresses during the cooling process.
• Integrated Design and Additive Manufacturing

• Additive Manufacturing of High-Temperature Structural Materials
• Integration of Sensors, Machine Learning, and Process Analytics
Research Topic 3.1

Integrated Design and Additive Manufacturing
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced methods for integrating models of materials, pro-
cesses, machines, and cost with computer-aided design (CAD) software to create a complete digital engineering
framework that accommodates the particular needs of gas turbine designers for additive manufacturing.
Summary
Expanding additive design aids and enhancing design practices will enable turbine-specific benefits in terms
of reduced life-cycle costs by adapting general advances in the state of the art of additive manufacturing to issues
specific to gas turbines, in part doing the following:
• Optimizing the use of cooling air through the use of creative geometries that (1) are enabled by additive
manufacturing and (2) would improve heat extraction and improve the control of clearances between parts,
thereby improving gas turbine efficiency.
• Enabling the design of new, higher performance, high-temperature materials as well as graded chemistries
and microstructures to align with key component stress conditions within gas turbine components to
improve component durability.
Background
Current design methodologies and design practices for product development have been optimized based
on conventional manufacturing processes using primarily subtractive manufacturing techniques to post-process
wrought or cast components. These methodologies do not allow the creative geometries and design options
that have been enabled by additive manufacturing and that have begun to revolutionize much of the gas turbine
design and manufacturing paradigm. The process of building parts incrementally, layer by layer, reduces costs
and weight, enables innovative designs, and challenges the order and speed of the traditional hardware develop-
ment cycle.29
Gas turbines are already very complex machines, but their performance could in many cases be improved by
the ability to incorporate parts with even higher levels of complexity, to the point that the parts are impossible to
manufacture using conventional processes. Additive manufacturing also offers a unique ability to substantially
reduce the costs and cycle time of producing complex development hardware by enabling prototype hardware
designs to be manufactured, tested, revised, and remanufactured much more quickly and inexpensively than is
currently possible.30
29 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, 2017, MSFC Technical Standard (MSFC-STD-3716), Standard for Additively Manufactured
Spaceflight Hardware by Laser Powder Bed Fusion in Metals, https://standards.nasa.gov/standard/msfc/msfc-std-3716.

30 Ibid.

Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in gas turbines by greatly enhancing the ability to design
gas turbine components to improve their performance, affordability, and manufacturability. This would reduce uncer-
tainty in going from design to manufacture, leading to high-fidelity, location-specific designs for higher performance
components with less rework. Additionally, advances in model-based engineering tools are essential to take full
advantage of the design benefits offered by additive manufacturing. Specific benefits will include the following:
• Complex geometries. Advanced design aids would enable the development of novel component shapes
and geometries based on a systems approach to design, independent of prior industrial constraints and
limitations imposed by post-processing utilizing historical subtractive manufacturing techniques. This is
of particular importance to gas turbine design because it provides opportunities to lower part count, reduce
weight, and decrease cooling air requirements, thus increasing efficiency.
• Distortion control. Advanced design tools that anticipate distortion effects from rapid solidification and heat
extraction could be used to guide the sizing and placement of support structures during component build.
These tools would also provide guidance on geometry compensation, which could significantly reduce the
number of build iterations required to demonstrate dimensional control. This is of particular importance to
gas turbine design due to extremely stringent dimensional tolerance requirements.
• Tailored microstructures within a single design. An ability to implement multiple materials or grain
structures would allow for location-specific designs, thereby reducing weight and providing for an optimal
distribution of stresses for improved durability and lifetime.
• Reduced risk of using new materials for an existing application or using existing materials for new
applications. Integrating digital definitions of materials and processes with digital design protocols will
allow for more efficient exploration of design spaces and early validation of component performance.
• Digital capability. Optimization of CAD build files will improve productivity in loading the files to additive
manufacturing machines, decrease delays during build as information is managed for the layer-by-layer
build method, manage residual stresses in components as they are manufactured, enable manufacturing at
remote locations and the capture nondestructive evaluation results due to improved transportability of the
files, and provide a digital “fingerprint” of each built component.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 4 to TRL 6 by 2030 by improving component
durability, increasing turbine efficiency, and reducing life-cycle costs.
The research topic has medium technical risk primarily because of the broad spectrum of additive manufacturing
processes and the need to control the process on a layer-by-layer basis. Each additive process poses unique challenges
and restrictions to the design community. Rapid solidification for laser powder beds, sintered powder removal, and
build zone heat control for electron beam processes, and dimensional control during sintering and densification of
binder jet additive processing all pose unique challenges for designers of additive manufacturing parts. As a result,
design aids and design practices need to be customized as a function of the additive process type. Regardless, the
payoff is significant for each process that is targeted for use in high-temperature turbine applications.
Advances in model integration across disciplines are essential to more rapid, accurate, and complex design and
manufacturing. These problems are challenging, but engineering has been on this trajectory for several years already.
This research topic applies pervasively to gas turbines for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applica-
tions because of the similarity in turbine component designs and the processes used to manufacture components.
Research Topic 3.2

Additive Manufacturing of High-Temperature Structural Materials
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop new high-temperature structural materials and advanced
additive manufacturing equipment and processes in order to raise the thermal efficiency and operating tem-
perature limits and increase the durability of gas turbine components produced using additive manufacturing;
in addition, accelerate the qualification process for their application.

Summary
The gas turbine industry will drive the development of new high-temperature structural materials that can be
used with additive manufacturing; and advances in additive manufacturing equipment will be required to process
what is envisaged to be more refractory materials than are currently used today. Greater coupling of computational
and characterization tools is required to quickly identify new material compositions designed for additive manufac-
turing. These tools would support modeling of key phenomena and determine which combinations of processing
and composition modifications can mitigate the driving forces for crack formation. Multiple conventional energy
sources as well as new types of sources, such as femtosecond lasers, will be required to deliver energy in an ever
more managed fashion to speed build rates and control distortion. To ensure affordability of components produced
with these new material compositions and additive techniques, this research topic would take advantage of the
global technology trend in additive manufacturing (see Chapter 1), particularly with regard to the development of
new, lower cost methods for powder production.
The largest gains in the performance of gas turbines are likely to be achieved in the hottest sections of the gas
turbine. One approach for raising the operating temperature limits and increasing the durability of parts is through
use of materials processed to a directionally solidified or single-crystal form. The development of new composi-
tions, additive manufacturing methods, and models that enable the growth and repair of directionally solidified or
single-crystal components would be game changing for both design and manufacturing.
Rapid qualification and certification methodologies will also be needed to accommodate the wide range
of additive manufacturing techniques, structural material compositions, and gas turbine applications in order to
cost-effectively produce components with higher temperature limits and durability.
Background
The harsh operating environments in gas turbines require a unique set of highly engineered properties. Limited
efforts are already under way to expand the compositional range of structural materials specifically designed for
additive manufacturing that can meet these harsh conditions.31 The relatively few structural material compositions
being employed in additively manufactured applications today, such as Alloy 718 and Ti-6Al-4V, were originally
designed to be processed by conventional manufacturing means. The highly tailorable nature of the local processing
conditions available in additive manufacturing will enable custom structural material compositions for additive
manufacturing. It will be possible for compositions to be modified to enable higher yield through lower incidence
of cracking phenomena and deleterious residual stress. Thus, new strategies and methodologies for applying and
managing energy will also be needed to accommodate new compositions. Additionally, new structural material
compositions will benefit from advances in powder processing techniques aimed at producing higher temperature
and higher quality powder in large quantities. The stringent performance requirements of gas turbines have con-
sistently driven the design of structural materials to give at least equal weight to the precise tailoring of micro-
structures in order to maximize performance. While novel processing of directionally solidified and single-crystal
materials using advanced casting techniques is now an industry standard, precise control of microstructures in
additively manufactured components remains a challenge. A new combined test and simulation-based analysis
approach to part qualification has been elusive, but it is essential to the rapid and cost-effective employment of
high-temperature materials for additive manufacturing.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by focusing on the development of
new additive manufacturing equipment capabilities and configurations. These new capabilities would enable
the processing of new, higher temperature structural material compositions as well as novel methods for con-
trolling microstructures. Additionally, these capabilities could enable the development of additive processes
31 Information on advanced high-temperature alloys and the state of their development is highly valued intellectual property, and target alloys
will likely not be publicly available until process, structure, and properties are demonstrated in a gas turbine environment.

for producing columnar-grained or single-crystal components, which would have significant impacts on the
industry by enabling more efficient designs for cooling air flow while providing potential paths to repair of
conventionally processed single-crystal components. Accelerating the development of rapid material and pro-
cess certification and qualification methods will enable much more efficient and widespread application of
additive manufacturing.
This research topic could advance some elements of relevant technologies from TRL 3 to TRL 6 by 2030.
Advances in additive manufacturing equipment capabilities have a high probability of meeting the requirements
for producing advanced structural material compositions in a production setting. New production paths to afford-
able, high-quality powder are also likely to be invented and introduced, although perhaps only on a small scale
by 2030. The most challenging aspect of this research topic will be developing the ability to tailor microstruc-
tures during the manufacturing process to produce columnar-grained or single-crystal parts. However, advances
in risk assessment methodologies are likely to support the application of rapid qualification and certification
methods.
This research topic has medium technical risk because global advances in additive manufacturing are rap-
idly advancing the equipment design concepts and the understanding of fundamental processes that underpin
this topic.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications because of similarities
in relevant materials and component designs.
Research Topic 3.3

Integration of Sensors, Machine Learning, and Process Analytics
Research Topic Summary Statement: Integrate models of physics-based composition, processing, micro-
structures, and mechanical behavior with artificial intelligence (AI) analysis and decision making of process
signals into the manufacturing infrastructure to enhance process controls and first-time yields of gas turbine
components.
Summary
The gas turbine industry already has great interest and robust research efforts under way in precision manu-
facturing and process controls because there are few other engineering applications of additive manufacturing that
require such a high level of performance, reliability, and safety. This is especially challenging given the demanding
operational environments within a gas turbine. Advances in precision manufacturing process control for gas turbine
components will easily transition to other industries, resulting in higher product yields. Physics-based process
models and AI systems will need to be integrated with factory operational technology for real-time, intelligent
control and for instantaneous feedback on manufacturing processes. This will require in situ sensing of material
states and autonomous methods for real-time defect identification and repair during manufacture. A digital record
of the manufacturing process will need to be automatically placed in a digital thread infrastructure for further
engineering use in the component life cycle.
Background
Additive manufacturing is an extraordinarily complex means of processing materials into a useful engineer-
ing component. Several additive manufacturing processes are being used or explored for their utility in the gas
turbine industry, including powder bed fusion (using either electron beam or laser heating sources) and directed
energy deposition (using blown powder or wire fed processes).32 A typical metal additive manufacturing pro-
cess could require consideration of more than 150 parameters. While some of the parameters may not affect
32 A source of energy is needed to fuse the powdered material that is used as a feedstock in most additive manufacturing processes.

product outcomes, and some will be dependent on other variables, still many variables are left to be interpreted
in a very complex and dynamic processing environment. With a goal of correcting defects in situ, analysis of
process feedback on critical parameters will need to be immediate (i.e., within the current build layer). Complete,
physics-based models for each of these methods is several years off, and even once developed, they will very
likely be too complex to be integrated as part of a process control system. Overcoming this issue will require the
development of physics-informed, reduced-order models augmented by machine learning that can be “trained”
to monitor and autonomously take control to correct additive manufacturing processes in real time. The unique
complexity of additive manufacturing will need more than a binary pass/fail criterion to establish part pedigree
through the product life cycle. A digital representation of the process will therefore be essential to inform mate-
rial review boards, to improve additive manufacturing processes, and to identify potential in-service issues in a
timely fashion.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by improving manufacturing quality, increas-
ing product yields, reducing property distributions, and enabling more rapid qualification of additive manufacturing
processes. Additional benefits include the creation of a robust path to continuous process improvements while
assisting scientists seeking to improve physics-based models of manufacturing processes. Having a complete
digital record of the as-built end state of critical components will make it possible to rapidly identify emergent
performance issues and potential root causes for failure throughout a system’s life cycle.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 4 to TRL 7 by 2030. Many individual tools
are now available and are beginning to be integrated. This will be a continuously evolving technology as additional
advances in physics-based models, in situ sensing, and AI are made and integrated into process control systems.
At present, these process control systems are quite rudimentary but are expected to make substantial gains given
the current rate of progress being made in each of the supporting technologies. As noted in Chapter 1, global
technology trends will ensure continued advances in autonomous systems, physics-based models, and AI apart
from research that may be conducted as part of this research topic.
This research topic has medium technical risk due to the difficulty in developing useful physics-based models
and relevant in situ sensing methodologies given the sheer complexity of additive manufacturing, especially with
regard to the more challenging aspects of gas turbine applications. However, advances in materials characterization
techniques to inform model development and relevant global technology trends will mitigate the risks associated
with the complexity.
This research topic applies to gas turbines for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications because
of the similarity in turbine component designs and the processes used to manufacture components.

support the accomplishment of another research area. The red arrow (with an arrowhead at each end) shows where
relationship with the research area on additive manufacturing for gas turbines are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 4: THERMAL MANAGEMENT

Research Area Summary Statement: Develop advanced cooling strategies that can quickly and inexpen-
sively be incorporated into gas turbines and enable higher turbine inlet temperatures, increased cycle pres-
sure ratios, and lower combustor and turbine cooling flows, thereby yielding increased thermodynamic cycle
efficiency while meeting gas turbine life requirements.

Additive
Structural Manufacturing
Materials for Gas Turbines
and Coatings
Thermal
Management
Combustion
Digital Twins and
Their Supporting
Gas Turbines in
Infrastructure
Pipeline
Applications
FIGURE 3.6 Key interrelationships between the Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines research area and other research areas.
Overview
Given the importance of reducing CO2 emissions, reducing fuel usage by increasing gas turbine efficiencies
continues to remain of high interest to the gas turbine industry. As discussed in Chapter 1, thermal efficiencies
of gas turbines and, by extension, fuel burn, are directly related to the turbine inlet temperature. The adiabatic
efficiencies of compressors and turbines are also strong drivers of thermal efficiency. Two different approaches
are typically employed in order to improve gas turbine thermal efficiency: (1) increase turbine inlet temperatures
while maintaining the same cooling flow requirements, or (2) maintain the same turbine inlet temperatures while
decreasing the cooling flow level. Both approaches may reduce turbine life unless thermal management schemes
increase overall cooling effectiveness. Increasing overall cooling effectiveness at a constant turbine inlet tem-
perature reduces turbine component metal temperature and increases component life. Alternatively, increasing
the overall cooling effectiveness while increasing turbine inlet temperature may yield constant turbine component
metal temperature, and by extension, turbine component life.
Turbine inlet temperatures over time track well with the overall cooling effectiveness levels produced by
advancing film cooling, as shown in Figure 3.7. Increasing cooling effectiveness reduces airfoil temperatures,
thereby allowing higher turbine inlet temperatures.
Cooling concepts for the hot section of the gas turbine, which include the combustor and the turbine modules,
were envisioned from the very beginning of gas turbine research and development. Blade cooling, however, did not
appear in operational equipment until the 1960s. Blade cooling is achieved by extracting air from the compressor
prior to entering the combustor and then routing the extracted air into components located in the combustor and
turbine modules to cool those components. In the 1960s, blade cooling technology enabled turbine inlet tempera-
tures to increase from 900°C/1,650°F to 1,000°C/1,850°F for commercial transport engines at takeoff. Subsequent
development of high-temperature turbine materials, coatings, and cooling technologies have enabled turbine inlet
temperatures of commercial transport engines at takeoff to increase from 1,000°C/1,850°F in the 1960s to more
than 1,400°C/2,550°F in the 1990s.
Modern gas turbines benefit from decades of impactful research on high-temperature alloys, advanced coatings,
and improved cooling technologies. Combining state-of-the-art nickel-based superalloys with the application of
more advanced cooling technologies, such as micro-channel cooling (also referred to as double-wall airfoils), has
allowed for continual increases in turbine inlet temperatures. Concurrently, increases in thermal efficiencies have

FIGURE 3.7 Improvements in cooling effectiveness (ϕ) that correspond to turbine entry temperatures (Ttet) over time show-
ing increases made possible through film cooling. See H.I.H. Saravanamuttoo, G.F.C. Rogers, H. Cohen, P.V. Straznicky, and
A.C. Nix, 2017, Gas Turbine Theory, Pearson Education Limited, Hardrow, U.K., p. 388; and R.S. Bunker, 2017, “Evolu-
tion of Turbine Cooling,” Conference Proceedings, ASME Turbo Expo 2017, June 26–30, 2017, Charlotte, North Carolina,
p. V001T51A001, doi:10.1115/GT2017-63205. SOURCE: Courtesy of John Gülen, Bechtel Infrastructure and Power.
been realized through increases in cycle pressure ratios, which are between 40 and 60 in today’s gas turbines. As
cycle pressure ratios increase, the temperature of the air extracted from the compressor for cooling the combus-
tor and turbine modules also increases. Since increased compressor discharge air temperature is a limiting factor
in effectively cooling combustor and turbine hardware, developing thermal management techniques that enable
higher coolant temperatures are integral to meeting hot section durability requirements. State-of-the-art cooling
flow requirements for components in the combustor and turbine modules reach as high as 25 percent of the air
flow entering the compressor, depending on the application.
Limitations exist in the current cooling strategies, however, from manufacturing constraints. For example, the
shapes of film-cooling holes, which are placed in the turbine airfoils after casting, are limited by both the laser
drilling and electro-discharge machining processes. Past research has also identified some key subjects in which
our fundamental physical understanding is lacking, thereby limiting the ability to advance gas turbine designs. One
such subject is full conjugate heat transfer analyses, in which a single model examines heat transfer involving both
fluids and solids in a particular system. Because existing models are not able to accurately capture the complex,
3D thermal energy exchange between cooling film flows and the main gas path, the optimization of combustor
and turbine cooling configurations is limited.
Greater understanding is also needed regarding the effects of particle-laden flows entering the gas turbine
from the external operating environment.33 Because of air pollution in some regions of the globe, particle-laden
33 Particle-laden flows affect the operation of gas turbines because the inlet supply air carries with it small particles that exist in the sur-
rounding environment. For power generation as well as oil and gas applications, filters remove the large particles without significant pressure
penalty; however, small particles can still exist in the supply air. For propulsion applications, filters are not feasible due to the pressure drop
penalty. In the case of propulsion, while on the ground the inlet supply air to the gas turbine can contain surrounding dirt and sand, while in
the air, the inlet supply air can contain volcanic ash and other particulate matter found in the atmosphere.

flows (with a mixture of solid particles, melted or partially melted particles, and hot gases) may enter the turbine
and impact the components in the main gas path as well as the secondary coolant flow path.
• Innovative Cooling
• Full Conjugate Heat Transfer Models
• Fundamental Physics and Modeling in Particle-Laden Flows
Research Topic 4.1

Innovative Cooling
Research Topic Summary Statement: Improve turbine component efficiencies through innovative cooling
technologies and strategies.
Summary
Research to develop innovative cooling strategies needs to address the high temperatures and high mechanical
stresses that turbine components experience as well as specific material properties and manufacturing methods.
Turbine aerodynamic performance and durability requirements drive increased geometric complexity for cooling
the combustor walls as well as in the vane and blade hardware.
Effective turbine thermal management in future gas turbines is related to the technological capability to
manufacture geometrically complex components comprising high-temperature materials. Because of increases in
the cycle pressure ratio, the air extracted from the compressor outlet to cool components in the combustor and
turbine modules is at a higher temperature than in earlier generations of gas turbines. As a result, in some cases
innovations will be needed to cool the coolant air.
Background
Turbine airfoils for power generation, propulsion, and oil and gas applications are typically manufactured
using investment casting. Several steps are required for this process, starting with pouring wax into metal molds
in the shape of the airfoil. Once each wax shape has set, it is removed from the mold and repeatedly immersed
in a ceramic slurry bath, forming a ceramic coating that is then heated to further harden the ceramic and melt the
wax. The actual airfoil is formed by pouring molten metal into the hollow space left behind from the melted wax.
The internal air-cooling passages within each blade are also formed during this stage of production by inserting
ceramic cores into the wax pattern.34 Additional complexity arises because airfoils are generally made by direc-
tionally solidifying the molten metal to align the grain boundaries, thereby allowing for higher stresses. After the
blades are further machined, film-cooling holes are placed in the external walls of the airfoils that lead to the
internal passages that supply the coolant. Once the cooling holes are manufactured, a thermal and environmental
coating is applied to the external surfaces of the airfoils to improve resistance to corrosion and oxidation as well
as insulate the airfoil from the hot main gas path flow. Combustor walls are typically constructed from relatively
thin sheets of high-temperature metal in a double-wall configuration where the external surfaces are sprayed with
thermal and environmental coatings. The cooling strategies used for the combustor walls are similar to those used
for vanes and blades. Research for both the turbine and combustor modules are typically categorized as either
internal cooling (for surfaces inside the vane blade or between the combustor liner double-wall) or external cool-
ing (for surfaces exposed to the hot gas path).
Internal cooling strategies could achieve high convective heat transfer coefficients through the use of highly
turbulent flows and large surface areas, but only if geometric constraints can be overcome and if enough pressure
34 J. Moxon, 1985, How Jet Engines Are Made, Threshold Books, London.

is available to appropriately drive the flow. Typical internal cooling strategies for the leading edges of airfoils
include impinging jets on the backside of the inside airfoil surface. For the main body of the airfoil, serpentine
channels that contain ribs are used to increase surface area and flow turbulence. Near the trailing edge where the
blade external heat transfer coefficients are very high and the passages are required to be very thin due to the
narrow trailing edges of the airfoils, pin fins are often used for high convective cooling while enhancing struc-
tural integrity. For the combustor walls, impingement cooling between the double-wall is commonly used along
with pin fins between the two walls for increased surface area and turbulence while also improving structural
rigidity. The external (hot side) wall of the combustor’s double-wall generally contains a high-density array of
film-cooling holes.
Advanced internal cooling strategies for vanes and blades are often limited by the design of the die for the
ceramic cores or the ability to cast small features. The tooling often restricts the designs of internal cooling passages.
While there has been significant research on developing more effective ceramic cores for the casting, as discussed
above additive manufacturing could open new opportunities. Another potential internal cooling strategy is to place
microchannels in the skin of turbine airfoils to bring the cooling closer to the airfoil surface.35 With advances in
additive manufacturing, it is feasible to completely redesign cooling strategies to include lattice structures and
even more complicated passages.
After cooling the internal surfaces of the airfoils and combustor liners, the coolant flow is exhausted through
film-cooling holes. In the case of the airfoils, the coolant is also exhausted through slots in the trailing edge. On
the external (hot gas) side of the airfoil and combustor walls, it is preferable to reduce convective heat transfer
from the hot gas path. State-of-the-art manufacturing methods for film-cooling holes use either laser-drilling or
electro-discharge manufacturing, which are processes completed after casting the turbine airfoil. In combustor
walls, which are often double-wall designs, film-cooling holes are similarly either laser-drilled or electro-discharge
machined.
Additive manufacturing methods can lead to complex film-cooling hole shapes that are better integrated with
the internal coolant supply channels, which is particularly important for the entrances to the film-cooling holes.
More complex film-cooling hole shapes may improve the quality of the film protection on combustor and turbine
hardware. New manufacturing methods can also lead to removing the limitation of requiring a line of site as well
as improve the tolerancing.
Integral to innovative cooling designs is the development of high-temperature materials used to make turbine
airfoils. As discussed above, in the section “Research Area 2: Structural Materials and Coatings,” there is sig-
nificant ongoing research to develop CMCs, which show significant promise in terms of increasing operational
temperatures by as much as 100°C/180°F beyond those of existing single-crystal alloys.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in innovative cooling strategies that enable higher tur-
bine inlet temperatures, resulting in increased thermal efficiency while meeting life-cycle cost requirements. This
research addresses a gap in the development of advanced cooling innovations in light of new high-temperature
materials and additive manufacturing methods. Furthermore, research in this area will further reduce the cost and
risk of large-scale adoption of additive manufacturing techniques and hot section cooling strategies in gas turbines.
An example of what has happened in the past in terms of increased turbine inlet temperatures has demonstrated
the impact of innovations in cooling strategies, particularly film-cooling. A disruptive increase in thermodynamic
cycle performance is expected with the large-scale adoption of innovative cooling strategies enabled by additive
manufacturing techniques and high-temperature materials.
This research topic could advance relevant innovative cooling technologies from TRL 1 to perhaps as high
as TRL 6 by 2030. The high TRL is expected as a result of integrating additive manufacturing and advanced
materials.
35 This is also referred to as double-wall cooling.

The research topic has medium to high technical risk, depending on the technology, because of potential dif-
ficulties in scaling up cooling innovations for application in operational gas turbines. The full extent of this risk
will depend somewhat on the development of additive manufacturing capabilities to reliably make the innovative
cooling features at a cost and durability that are beneficial to the industry. The successful accomplishment of this
research topic is therefore closely linked to the success of additive manufacturing as well as the time and cost to
develop new cooling strategies.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas. Reducing fuel burn for all three
applications is an important goal, particularly for power generation and for aviation. Improving the efficiency of
oil and gas turbines when they are operating at partial loads has also been established as a priority.
Research Topic 4.2

Full Conjugate Heat Transfer Models
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced full conjugate heat transfer techniques to enable the
optimum design of combustor and turbine cooling configurations, which would minimize component cooling
air flow, enable increased turbine inlet temperatures, and allow for higher cycle pressure ratios.
Summary
Conductive heat transfer is typically the dominant form of heat transfer in solids, while convective heat transfer
typically dominates in liquids. A full conjugate heat transfer model analyzes heat transfer involving both solids
and liquids in a particular system.
Validated full conjugate heat transfer techniques enable advances in optimizing combustor and turbine cooling
configurations. Full conjugate techniques capture the complex, 3D thermal energy exchange between cooling film
flows, main gas path flows, internal flows, and the solid components more accurately than the more commonly
used loosely coupled conjugate analytical processes that consist of separate and sequentially executed lower fidel-
ity submodels. The application of full conjugate techniques will increase gas turbines’ thermodynamic efficiency,
while meeting their life requirements with less uncertainty. These full conjugate heat transfer techniques will have
more influence during the engineering design process if they are validated with heat transfer data acquired from
coordinated experiments on canonical geometries and flow conditions, with the support of industry, academia,
and government stakeholders.
Background
As discussed above, state-of-the-art cooling strategies for combustor and turbine modules include but are not
limited to closely packed arrays for film-cooling holes that generate low-temperature films that (1) insulate the
underlying metal and protective thermal barrier coating from the high-temperature combustion products in the
main gas path and (2) augment the rate of convective heat transfer between the cooling air flow in these holes
and the surrounding metal. The rapid mixing of the protective film flows with the surrounding fluid is a complex,
3D process that is highly dependent on the geometrical characteristics of the cooling hole array, the internal cool-
ing flow momentum and quality¸ and the external flow momentum and turbulent fluctuation levels. Furthermore,
wall-bounded film flows that rapidly mix with fuel-rich hot gases promote secondary chemical reactions in the
film and diminish the intended benefit of film cooling. The complex physics associated with the above are cur-
rently not understood.
Computational thermal models for predicting hot section metal temperatures typically use a loosely coupled
conjugate heat transfer approach. For a turbine blade, submodels that capture the heat transfer processes among
the internal fluid flow, the external fluid flow, and the metal and thermal barrier coating system are separately
and sequentially executed until the temperatures at the interfaces of these models converge to the same value.
The aerothermal submodels for the external airfoil surface use a combination of empirically driven low-fidelity
and advanced high-fidelity tools to capture the effects of film mixing and insulation, heat transfer augmentation,

secondary chemical reactions, and energy transfer between the film and the solid blade surfaces. These submod-
els are typically validated with results from controlled experiments, during which the aforementioned effects are
often measured separately. For cooling strategies that include closely packed arrays of cooling holes, however,
the cooling films interact, the solid conduction pathways become more 3D, and the energy exchange between the
external fluid flow and the blade solid becomes more complex. These complex aerothermal interactions are better
captured with full conjugate heat transfer modeling techniques.
Benefit
Validated, full conjugate heat transfer modeling techniques for combustors and turbines with complex
cooling configurations could be used to improve the accuracy of metal temperature predictions by reducing
the modeling error associated with the simplified aerothermal submodels that are typically used in the loosely
coupled conjugate analytical process. Enhanced predictive accuracy would increase the accuracy of hot section
component life forecasts, improve hot section component durability, reduce combustor and turbine cooling air
flows, and enable higher turbine inlet temperatures for greater thermodynamic efficiency while satisfying mission
life requirements.
This research topic has a medium technical risk. Its success depends on (1) the generation of comprehensive
data sets obtained from full conjugate heat transfer experiments on canonical combustor and turbine cooling con-
figurations and flow conditions that are accessible by the technical experts in the gas turbine industry, academia,
and government and (2) the validation of full conjugate heat transfer models with these publicly available data
sets. This activity would require careful coordination among these key stakeholders.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications for gas turbines operat-
ing at full and partial load.
Research Topic 4.3

Fundamental Physics and Modeling in Particle-Laden Flows
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop a fundamental understanding of the physics and modeling
of particle-laden flows in gas turbines that result from their respective operating environments.
Summary
Gas turbines in many geographic regions operate in increasingly challenging environments, where the con-
centration of particles such as sand or atmospheric particulates can significantly degrade gas turbine performance
and often lead to shutdowns, especially for aircraft and the oil and gas industry. The basic physics associated
with these environments is not well understood and requires integrated study using high-fidelity simulations and
experimental validation for relevant environmental conditions ranging from simple to complex phenomena associ-
ated with particle ingestion.
Environmental particles can erode compressor blades. Within the hot sections of a gas turbine (i.e., the com-
bustor and turbine modules), if a particle’s residence time is long enough, a rapid rise in the particle temperatures
occurs. This can cause particles to adhere to component surfaces, thereby setting off a chain reaction of severe
events. When a particle adheres to a surface, the metal temperature generally increases by either reducing the
coolant flow due to blocked internal passages or increases the thermal resistance between the wall and coolant
air. Higher metal temperatures, in turn, lead to higher temperatures of the particles adhered to the wall, thereby
increasing the likelihood that more particles will adhere to the surface.36 Upon cooling, the presence of the melted
particles results in spallation of the protective coatings.
36 W.S. Walsh, K.A. Thole, and C. Joe, 2006, “Effects of Sand Ingestion on the Blockage of Film-Cooling Holes,” pp. 81-90 in Proceedings
of the ASME Turbo Expo 2006: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. Volume 3: Heat Transfer, Parts A and B, ASME, doi.org/10.1115/GT2006-90067.

This research problem is specific to gas turbines because of the particular external environments in which
they operate as well as the high temperatures present in the turbine. Modeling the complexity of this problem
requires an integrated approach using high-fidelity numerical simulations along with experimental validation.
Defined test cases are needed that range from simple, fundamental benchtop simulations to more turbine-
relevant complex cases to assess how to develop a better understanding of the various mechanisms affecting
turbine operations.
Background
As global flight patterns increasingly traverse developing nations and as power generation and oil and
gas turbines continue to be installed in a wide range of environments, the threat of small-particle ingestion
into gas turbines grows. For power generation, contaminants that can reduce gas turbine performance include
rust from upstream components and unfiltered particulates from the surrounding environment. For aircraft
propulsion, contaminates of interest include volcanic ash, fine sand particulate suspended in the atmosphere
or ingested during takeoff and landing, and industrial pollutants such as those generated by coal-burning
power plants. Unlike gas turbines for aircraft propulsion, gas turbines for both power generation and oil and
gas applications can use filters to remove many larger particles (>10 μm), but smaller particles remain in the
main gas path flow.
Poor air quality affects the performance of each gas turbine module differently. In the compressor module,
erosion is the concern: environmental particles drawn in by the fan can subsequently impact the compressor blades.
Both the fan and compressor sections work to pulverize the particles. Once reaching the high-pressure compres-
sor section, from which discharge air is bled to cool hot section components, the particles are small enough to be
carried with the secondary cooling flows, where temperatures are much hotter, causing particle deposition. The
particle deposition can block internal passages and cooling holes. In the main gas path, particles may be deposited
on external airfoil surfaces, which increases their roughness. Rough turbine airfoils cause increased aerodynamic
losses and can lead to early boundary layer transition on the airfoil resulting in high external heat transfer from
the hot gases passing along the airfoils.
Where and how the particles deposit within a hot section component strongly depends on their size,
composition, temperature, the internal cooling geometry, and the method of introduction. The mechanisms
of particle transport and deposition within gas turbines are not well understood because all of the relevant
conditions are nearly impossible to simulate in a controlled experimental environment. In the turbine module,
the friction drag from the high-speed coolant can keep particles in an aerosol state where the particles
track the flow. However, given the particle mass and momentum, the particles do not necessarily follow
the streamlines through the turns or various cooling features. Instead, the particles impact surfaces where
there are several forces, which are not well understood, that will dictate whether the particle will adhere
to the surface.37
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research by identifying the principal mechanisms that drive
the degradation of turbine durability from particle-laden flows. Once identified, these mechanisms would then
be captured in experimental and numerical turbine simulations. The ultimate benefit of this research area is to
provide a physics-based understanding of particle transport and deposition in high-pressure turbines that can be
used to drive conceptual, particle-tolerant turbine cooling designs and to improve the quality of turbine component
lifing forecasts in particle-laden flows. The latter will enable expanded operational limits. Currently, there are
37 Ibid.

substantial shortcomings in understanding the driving mechanisms of particle deposition on turbine components.
Basic, fundamental test cases are nonexistent, resulting in an inability to execute integrated, methodical experiments
that enable the validation of low- and high-fidelity particle transport and deposition models relevant to turbine
operations in particle-laden flows.
Physics-based models could be developed to drive various advanced, particle-tolerant turbine designs by 2030.
Achieving a high-level of certainty in turbine lifing predictions would require significant breakthroughs in particle
transport and deposition research and particle-tolerant turbine design concepts.
This research topic has high technical risk because the models may need to be tailored to the specifics of each
case because of the complex interactions. The test cases to fully replicate gas turbine conditions at high pressures
and temperatures are difficult at best.
This research topic applies to aviation, power generation, and oil and gas applications, by providing a better
understanding of how turbine operations are affected by particle-laden flows, which improves turbine cooling
designs as well as lifing models needed. For the aviation applications, particle-laden flows can disrupt operations
by requiring aircraft to detour around regions such as volcanic plumes or over developing countries with an espe-
cially high concentration of particles, increase engine wear, and possibly lead to a loss of propulsion in flight. For
power generation and oil and gas applications, particle-laden flows increase the frequency of maintenance and
reduce the overall efficiency of the gas turbines.

relationship with the thermal management research area are not shown.
Additive
Manufacturing
for Gas Turbines
Structural
Materials and Thermal
Coatings Management
Combustion
System Simulations and
Integration Validation Experiments
FIGURE 3.8 Key interrelationships between the Thermal Management research area and other research areas.

RESEARCH AREA 5: HIGH-FIDELITY INTEGRATED SIMULATIONS AND

VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS
Research Area Summary Statement: Develop and validate physics-based, high-fidelity computational
predictive simulations that enable detailed engineering analysis early in the design process, including virtual
exploration of gas turbine module interactions and off-design operating conditions.
Overview
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been an important tool in aerospace engineering over the past four
decades, and it has lowered development costs by reducing the number of physical tests required in the design
process. The predominant CFD tool has been based on Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations, which
contain calibrated phenomenological models to represent the effect of turbulence fluctuations on the averaged
flow quantities. The accuracy of RANS is limited by phenomenological modeling assumptions. There are several
flow features in the flow path of a gas turbine that RANS models have difficulty predicting, including (1) flow
separation and turbulent mixing and (2) quantities such as thermoacoustic oscillations and fluctuations of pressure
and temperature that require accurate prediction of unsteady turbulence fluctuations. Large eddy simulations are
high-fidelity computations that attempt to capture most of the energetic unsteady 3D flow features in flows such
as those in the interior of a gas turbine. Subgrid-scale models are used to account for the effects of unresolved
small-scale turbulent flow motions. This is in contrast to the RANS approach, for which the effect of all turbulence
scales on the mean flow are modeled.
• Numerical Simulation of Subsystems and System Integration

• Coordinated Experimental Research
• Computer Science and the Utility of Simulation Data
Research Topic 5.1

Numerical Simulation of Subsystems and System Integration
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced, high-fidelity, predictive numerical simulations
to permit expanded exploration of design spaces and to enhance system-level optimization to support the
development of gas turbines with higher efficiencies, reliability, and durability, and with lower develop-
ment costs.
Summary
Integrated numerical simulations can capture interactions among gas turbine modules. Interactions of
interest include dynamic couplings, flow distortion, unanticipated heating or loading,38 and thermoacoustic
instabilities that manifest only when the system is integrated. Greater insight into system coupling yields more
accurate aerothermal and structural boundary conditions and, by extension, more realistic module predictions
than single-module models with simplified boundary conditions applied at the interfaces between modules.
High-fidelity numerical simulation tools would be benchmarked, calibrated, and then validated with experi-
mental data acquired on canonical single-module and multimodule configurations (see the section “Research
Topic 5.2: Coordinated Experimental Research,” below) in order to maximize the effectiveness of these tools
during the design process. Applying validated computational models could yield improved learning outcomes
from subsystem rig and full engine tests, permit faster engineering design optimization, and reduce engineering
development costs.
38 Stage loading is a measure of the load on a turbomachinery stage (compressor, fan, or turbine). It is related to pressure ratio across the stage.

Background
The first integrated multifidelity simulation39 of an annular sector of a realistic gas turbine engine (PW6000)
was demonstrated a decade ago.40 In that simulation. the combustor and its upstream diffuser were computed
using large eddy simulation, and the rotating machinery was simulated using RANS. The integration effort lacked
robustness, as boundary conditions at the module interfaces had to be improvised. In the ensuing decade, com-
putational power has increased by more than three orders of magnitude, and significant strides have been made
in the development of accurate and efficient numerical methods that are especially suitable for prediction of the
multiphysics turbulent flows41 encountered in gas turbines. This combination of advances in hardware and software
have opened new opportunities for detailed engineering analysis in the design process, resulting in reduced design
cycle time, avoidance of costly time and potential engineering rework, and more optimally designed gas turbine
components. High-fidelity simulation capabilities have recently been used to study combustion instabilities in the
GE 7HA heavy-duty gas turbine.42,43 These integrated calculations used a single large eddy simulation code, but
simulated only the central portion of the gas turbine, which includes the compressor discharge chamber (including
the combustor prediffuser), the combustor, and the turbine’s first stage stator.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by leveraging the significant advances
made over the past decade in high-fidelity numerical simulation capabilities for analysis and design of the next-
generation gas turbines, and provide a cost-effective means of assessing integration effects early in the design
process. It would accelerate the implementation and testing of the advanced numerical technology in the gas
turbine sector.
The proposed research aims to demonstrate the applicability and predictive capability of a state-of-the-art
high-fidelity integrated numerical technology for end-to-end simulation of realistic gas turbines. It would be the
first integrated large eddy simulation of its kind to include both turbomachinery and combustor components. Addi-
tional physics-based modeling research will likely be needed, depending on the results of the validation experi-
ments and comparison with the experimental data (see the section “Research Topic 5.2: Coordinated Experimental
Research,” below).
This research topic is expected to advance relevant technology from TRL 2 to TRL 6 by 2030, depending on
the level of engagement by design engineers and the feedback they provide.
This research topic has moderate technical risk because of the issues that may have to be resolved with
subgrid-scale models (e.g., turbulent combustion, liquid fuel atomization, and wall models for flow and heat
transfer) that may surface as the simulations are applied to realistic gas turbines. Just as important is the risk that
new simulation tools will not be adopted if users continue to rely on legacy tools that have not leveraged recent
advances in simulation technology. Of paramount importance is the involvement of gas turbine designers during
the development of tools and models, without which the final outcomes will be at risk.
Physics-based simulations can provide near-instantaneous detailed data for engineering analysis. They also
enable faster and more cost-effective exploration of the design space. If used judiciously, these simulations can
reduce the number of expensive physical tests and make each test that remains much more valuable. Coordinated
validation experiments are necessary to enhance the credibility of the simulation results and to reduce the risk of
drawing misleading conclusions from numerical experiments.
39 Different numerical models with different levels of accuracy and cost are used in different modules.
40 G. Medic, G. Kalitzin, D. You, E.v.d. Weide, J.J. Alonso, and H. Pitsch, 2007, “Integrated RANS/LES Computations of an Entire Gas
Turbine Jet Engine,” Paper AIAA 2007-1117 at 45th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, http://bit.ly/2WLZQzj.
41 Multiple physical phenomena such as gas–liquid interactions and chemical reactions are active.
42 J. Hines, “OLCF Helps GE Deliver Next-Generation Gas Turbines,” Oak Ridge National Laboratory, http://bit.ly/2NJmrZ5, accessed
November 5, 2019.
43 J. Hines, 2016, “Better Combustion for Power Generation,” Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May 31, http://bit.ly/36AEgSQ.

As an engineering tool, high-fidelity numerical simulations apply to power generation, aviation, and oil and
gas applications. These simulations can be used in the analysis and understanding of physical phenomena such as
unsteady thermal effects, unsteady loading on rotors, and thermoacoustic instabilities.
Research Topic 5.2

Coordinated Experimental Research
Research Topic Summary Statement: Conduct experimental research to validate numerical simulations of
individual and integrated gas turbine modules.
Summary
High-fidelity numerical simulations will require phenomenological models for unresolved physics for the
foreseeable future. Research of interest includes modeling of turbulent combustion, wall heat transfer, wall–
particle–turbulence interactions, surface roughness, and atomization of liquid fuel jets. Experiments are necessary
to validate both component and integrated (e.g., the combustor and turbine) large-scale simulations.
Background
In high-fidelity simulations, the large-scale features of the flow are computed on a space–time computational
grid, and the interaction of the unresolved small-scale features with the resolved scales are modeled via the so called
subgrid-scale models. Subgrid-scale models are necessary for physical phenomena such as small-scale turbulence
near a wall, liquid fuel atomization, and chemical reactions. Although there is a large body of experimental data
available in canonical configurations (e.g., heat transfer in a turbulent boundary layer and chemical reactions in
counter-flowing jets), significant gaps exist, and additional experiments are needed to guide and validate integrated
simulations. For example, the following heat transfer measurements would be highly beneficial, especially if they
are coordinated with companion numerical simulations and model developers:
• Heat transfer to the combustor liner (to characterize the effectiveness of effusion cooling near a swirling,
reacting flow).
• Measurements of engendered thermal stresses in the combustor liner measurements.
• Heat transfer measurements on turbine blades in the presence of active cooling, surface coatings, or incident
vitiated flows (see the preceding section, “Research Area 4: Thermal Management,” for more information).
Similarly, there is considerable experimental data available for thermoacoustic responses in realistic combus-
tors, but acoustic boundary conditions for the facilities are poorly characterized and yet essential for high-fidelity
numerical simulations. In turbomachinery, measurements to characterize end-wall effects (e.g., blade tips and hubs)
are needed, especially for prediction of hub stall and tip loading in compressors.44
Spatially resolved measurements of emissions would be challenging but very beneficial. This would involve
experiments that would measure CO oxidation axially along a combustor (to help design combustor lengths) or
particulate “number densities” (for soot) in both the near and far field of the reaction zones.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by developing validated unresolved phys-
ics models, which would enable the assessment of subgrid-scale models and could reduce uncertainties in the
results of numerical simulations. Validation experiments would add credibility to both simulations of individual
44 N. Gourdain, F. Sicot, F. Duchaine, and L. Gicquel, 2014, Large eddy simulation of flows in industrial compressors: A path from 2015 to
2035, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372(2022), doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0323.

gas turbine modules and large-scale simulations of the gas turbine as a whole. To fully realize the benefits of this
research, coordination between laboratory experiments and numerical simulations is essential. Such coordination
would ensure the measurements of relevant parameters in realistic conditions, accelerate model development, and
enhance the reliability of the simulations.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 2 to TRL 6 by 2030. It has medium techni-
cal risk because of the difficulty in avoiding inapplicable results, which can arise if the experimental research is
done in isolation rather than in coordination with numerical simulations.
Detailed experimental data of flow, temperature, heat transfer, and combustion products are of high value in
all sectors of gas turbine space: industrial, aviation, and oil and gas industries. In addition to their utility in model
development and validation of high-fidelity simulations, experimental data obtained in relevant conditions provide
benchmarking platforms for mixed fidelity engineering models in all gas turbine applications.
Research Topic 5.3

Computer Science and the Utility of Simulation Data
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced methods for mapping high-fidelity numerical tools,
including pre- and post-processing algorithms, to emerging computer architectures to facilitate the adoption
of the high-fidelity simulation tools by gas turbine designers without specialized expertise in these methods.
Summary
Mapping high-fidelity numerical algorithms to emerging computer architectures is key to bringing to bear
the latest advances in high-performance computing to the gas turbine industry. Workflow advances in software
(including grid generation, rapid input/output data, and in situ diagnostics) are needed for widespread adoption of
the high-fidelity simulation tools by design experts.
Background
The NASA Vision 2030 study45 makes recommendations for developing advanced CFD capabilities for
aerospace applications by 2030. It identifies challenges for development of advanced CFD software, including
the following:
• Managing complex geometries, scalable mesh generation, and adaptation.

• Efficient deployment of next-generation hardware and innovative algorithms that could, for example,
enable high-fidelity simulations at a sufficiently reduced cost so that they could be routinely used for high-
throughput design studies.
• Efficient data mining capabilities for learning from data sets generated by large-scale simulations. This
includes development of physics-constrained machine learning algorithms for (subgrid-scale) modeling of
unresolved thermal and fluid phenomena.
All three of the above challenges define research for high-fidelity numerical simulations that are described
by the other two research topics included in this research area. Physical geometry and flow path in a gas turbine
is extremely complex. Efficient grid generation algorithms are needed to produce high-quality grids with rapid
turnaround. The gap in the ability to produce data and the ability to move data (for post-processing in workstations)
is widening exponentially. The net result is that analyzing simulation data are becoming exceedingly difficult, and
large simulation data are analyzed less because they are cumbersome to interrogate. Leveraging present advances
in computational power will require mapping simulation algorithms and codes onto emerging high-speed computer
45 J.
Slotnick, A. Khodadoust, J. Alonso, D. Darmofal, W. Gropp, E. Lurie, and D. Mavriplis, 2014, CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to
Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences, NASA/CR-2014-218178, https://go.nasa.gov/2rab8l5.

architectures. Targeted research is needed to address these particular bottlenecks and challenges to enhance the
usability and effectiveness of high-fidelity simulations.
Benefit
This research topic would accelerate ongoing research in this area by increasing the speed of computational
algorithms and large-scale data analysis methods, which are critical for effective use of numerical simulations in
engineering analysis and in reducing gas turbine design cycle time. It would also facilitate the increased use of
high-fidelity numerical simulations by design engineers and potentially reduce the number of costly physical tests.
Designers could ask “what-if” type questions in the virtual environment and understand cause and effect relation-
ships better than by other available means. Efficient data analytic tools (e.g., dynamic mode decomposition46)
would enhance the ability to interrogate simulation data for engineering analysis. At present, there is relatively
limited ongoing research in this area.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 4 to TRL 7 by 2030. Lack of adoption of the
simulation tools by the designers poses the most significant risk. Furthermore, if the tools are developed without
guidance from actual designers of gas turbines, it is unlikely that the resulting simulation technology would have
its potential impact.
Efficient mesh generation technology, data mining techniques for interrogation of large data sets, and leverag-
ing advanced computer architectures would be beneficial to all gas turbine applications.

support the accomplishment of another research area. The red arrows (with an arrowhead at each end) show
where two research areas are mutually supportive to a substantial degree. Research areas that do not have a
strong interrelationship with the research area on high-fidelity integrated simulations and validation experiments
are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 6: UNCONVENTIONAL THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES

Research Area Summary Statement: Investigate and develop unconventional thermodynamic cycles for
simple and combined cycle gas turbines to improve thermal efficiency, while ensuring that trade-offs with
other elements of gas turbine performance, such as life-cycle cost, are acceptable.
Overview
The conventional approach for improving gas turbine efficiency relies on increasing cycle pressure ratio,
increasing turbine inlet temperature, and improving the efficiency of individual turbine modules (compressor,
combustor, and turbine). The development of unconventional thermodynamic cycles would constitute an alterna-
tive approach. Research into unconventional thermodynamic cycles to improve the gas turbine performance such
as thermal efficiency can have two distinct paths:
• As an enabler of advanced design parameters (e.g., by increasing efficiency by enabling higher turbine
inlet temperature and cycle pressure ratios).
• As a performance enabler in and of itself (e.g., by increasing efficiency independent of turbine inlet
temperature and cycle pressure ratio).
46 P. Schmid, 2010, Dynamic mode decomposition of numerical and experimental data, Journal of Fluid Mechanics 656:5-28, http://bit
.ly/2NJmrZ5.

Structural
Materials and
Coatings Thermal
Management
Combustion
Simulations and
Validation Experiments
Unconventional
Digital Twins and Thermodynamic
Their Supporting Cycles
Infrastructure
System
Integration
FIGURE 3.9 Key interrelationships between the High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments research
area and other research areas.
Possible research and development (R&D) subjects include intercooling (with or without recuperation47),
reheat or sequential combustion, and complex thermodynamic cycles to reduce the amount of air that exits the
compressor and is used for hot gas path cooling. This would include, for example, closed-loop cooling of turbine
stage-one stator nozzle vanes with steam or a combination of steam cooling with reheat.
Many thermodynamic cycles could potentially improve gas turbine performance via their unique differences
from the standard gas turbine Brayton cycle. Cycles of potential interest include the following:
• Pressure gain combustion cycle with simultaneous pressure and temperature rise in the combustor.
In contrast, the Brayton cycle used by conventional gas turbines features constant-pressure combustion.
Variants of pressure gain combustion are:
— Pulse(d) detonation combustion
— Rotating detonation combustion
— Shockless explosion combustion
• Semi-closed oxy-combustion cycle. This cycle combusts fuel using pure oxygen, which makes it much
easier to remove CO2 from the exhaust.
• Turbocompound cycle. This cycle combines an internal combustion reciprocating (i.e., piston-cylinder)
engine and a gas turbine in a hybrid cycle arrangement.
47 Recuperation refers to preheating of compressed air with hot exhaust gas prior to entering the combustor. The objective is to reduce fuel
burn in the combustor and increase cycle efficiency.

Constant Volume
3A
2C 3
Temperature
4
2
4A
1 4C
Constant Pressure
Entropy
FIGURE 3.10 Comparison of ideal Brayton (points 1-2-3-4) and Atkinson (points 1-2-3A-4A) cycles with constant pressure
(2 to 3) and constant volume (2 to 3A) heat addition processes, respectively. Entropy is related to the amount of energy in a
system that is available to do work. In a gas turbine, entropy is increased in the combustor as heat is added to the gas flow.
SOURCE: Courtesy of John Gülen, Bechtel Infrastructure and Power.
• Hybrid gas turbine and fuel cell combined cycle. This approach would incorporate fuel cells in a combined
cycle power plant.
• Supercritical CO2 cycles. These cycles would use pure liquid CO2 at supercritical pressures and temperatures
as the working fluid in a closed system based on a Brayton or Rankine cycle. Such a system could be used
either as a stand-alone gas turbine or as the bottoming cycle in a combined cycle power plant in combination
with a conventional gas turbine as the topping cycle.
The cycles listed above would be most easily implemented on large, ground-based turbines (i.e., turbines
for power generation applications), although some might eventually be practical in oil and gas or aviation
applications.48
Because of the maturity of conventional gas turbine technology, which goes back for more than a century,
it will be difficult to mature systems using unconventional thermodynamic cycles to the point that they can be
implemented in such a way that the impact on gas turbine cost; size; reliability, availability, and maintainability
(RAM); and other aspects of life-cycle cost is acceptable from a cost-performance trade-off perspective.
• Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: Technology

• Gas Turbine Cycles for Carbon-Free Fuels
• Gas Turbine Cycles with Inherent Carbon Capture Ability
48 In fact, pressure gain combustion and turbocompound cycles were originally conceived for aircraft propulsion applications.

Research Topic 6.1

Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: Technology
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop gas turbine technology that would allow incorporation of
unconventional cycles to maximize improvements in thermal efficiency that are achievable using pressure
gain combustion.
Summary
The most efficient variant of the ideal gas turbine Brayton cycle involves constant volume heat addition.
Achieving this in a steady-flow device such as a gas turbine presents significant difficulties even in laboratory
conditions. Approximation of the ideal process in actual hardware, under the generic name of pressure gain com-
bustion (PGC), mainly via detonation, has been investigated since 1950s in a mostly sporadic fashion.
While the underlying thermodynamics is unassailable, it is extremely difficult to implement a PGC process in
a steady-state, steady-flow device such as a gas turbine. The best-known technique to achieve this is the explosive
combustion taking place in the cylinders of a reciprocating internal combustion engine when the piston is at or near
the top dead center. In fact, the first successful gas turbine in commercial operation, designed and manufactured
by Hans Holzwarth in 1908 in Germany, had such a combustion chamber with a two-stage turbine.
A Holzwarth-like implementation in a modern gas turbine is problematic at large air flows and outputs due to
the limitation imposed by the size of the explosive combustion chambers and the intermittency of gas flow into the
turbine stage (reduced efficiency). Currently, the most promising technology to achieve this in a gas turbine with
axial flow through the compressor and turbine is PGC. The specific PGC technology currently under investigation
for aviation and power generation applications is detonation combustion. (An earlier version, pulsed detonation
combustion, has been dropped in favor of the rotating detonation combustion due to the better amenability of the
latter to quasi-steady flow applications.) Shockless explosion combustion is another approach to constant-volume
combustion that merits additional investigation.
The thermodynamic principles underlying the transformative potential of PGC to elevate cycle thermal effi-
ciencies by several percentage points are indisputable. There is already a widespread effort on the fundamental
combustion research.
Background
Ideal cycles such as the Brayton cycle include heat addition and heat rejection processes. Ideal heat addition
can take one of the following forms: (1) constant pressure (Brayton cycle), or (2) constant volume (Atkinson
cycle49). Implementation of the ideal cycle heat addition in actual “flange-to-flange” gas turbine can be done in
one of the two ways: (1) combustion (open cycle), or (2) heat exchange (closed cycle). The combustion (or heat
exchange) process in the actual gas turbine hardware can neither be constant pressure nor be constant volume due
to flow friction, heat loss, and myriad other loss mechanisms.
Temperature-entropy representations of Brayton and Atkinson cycles are shown in Figure 3.10. In both cases,
point 1 is the inlet to the compressor, point 2 is the exit from the compressor and the inlet to the “heat adder”
(e.g., the combustor of a gas turbine in practice), point 3 or 3A is the exit from heat adder and inlet to the turbine,
and point 4A is the exit from the turbine (or nozzle, for an aircraft engine). The key physical mechanism for
improving efficiency with a constant volume heat addition cycle is the ability of the heat adder to act in part as
a compressor, thereby increasing the temperature and pressure of the working fluid simultaneously. Thus, for the
same overall cycle pressure ratio, the mechanical compressor in a constant-volume heat adder cycle draws off less
power than the compressor in a constant-pressure heat adder cycle.
49 Referred to as the Humphrey cycle in some references, especially in aeronautical treatises.

The most direct means of improving the efficiency of a large power generation turbine is to raise the turbine
inlet temperature. The current state of the art can enable turbine inlet temperatures up to about 1,700°C/3,100°F.
If PGC (e.g., via detonation combustion) can be successfully implemented in a gas turbine, it could improve cycle
efficiency up to 2 percentage points and reduce fuel burn by about 3 percent. This is equivalent to increasing tur-
bine inlet temperature by about 200°C/350°F, which would be very challenging to achieve with low emissions and
adequate parts life. Thus, this technology has the potential for a transformative improvement in cycle performance
of gas turbines for power generation applications.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate the advancement of gas turbine technology for PGC from TRL 3 to TRL
6 by 2030. The primary hurdle to overcome in PGC development is the fact that developing hardware to imple-
ment combustion in a quasi-steady flow process with an adverse (i.e., increasing in the direction of flow) pressure
gradient is a challenging engineering task.
Tailor-made PGC cycle configurations can prove themselves to be more amenable to practical implementation
in a successful prototype (rather than trying to “squeeze in” an additional, complex piece of equipment into the
existing, already tightly spaced architecture).
The research topic has high technical risk because, ultimately, regardless of the resources spent on it, a concept
readily amenable to practical implementation may turn out to be unachievable. This is balanced by low (relatively
speaking) risk from a resource allocation perspective because thermodynamic cycle research does not involve
complex and expensive hardware or infrastructure.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications.
Research Topic 6.2

Gas Turbine Cycles for Carbon-Free Fuels
unconventional Brayton cycle variants to achieve high thermal efficiency from combustion of carbon-free
fuels such as hydrogen.
Summary
Combustion of hydrogen in modern, dry, low NOx gas turbine combustors is problematic due to issues associ-
ated with NOx emissions, combustion stability, and safety, among others.50 A new gas turbine cycle for carbon-
free fuels such as hydrogen could provide designers with more options for solving hydrogen combustion issues.
Background
Potential carbon-free or carbon-neutral fuels include synthetic hydrocarbons produced via chemical reactions
from CO2 (captured from power plant stack or ambient air) and hydrogen generated via electrolysis of water using
renewable energy sources (e.g., solar or wind). Coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration is another
option (carbon-neutral but not carbon-free). Investments to enable practical application of these fuel production
schemes and others at large scale are ongoing. The main hurdles for using these fuels in gas turbines are achieving
low NOx emissions and integrating the power generation cycle with the fuel production system for high thermal
efficiency, reliability, availability, and maintainability.
50 Details on issues associated with the use of hydrogen as a fuel appear in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the
Performance Improvement Criteria.”

Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by expanding the scope of ongoing research
to address hydrogen issues, which is currently focused on improvements that can be implemented with gas turbine
designs that are based on the Brayton cycle. In other words, an unconventional cycle could provide the framework
for burning hydrogen in a stable manner with low NOx emissions without hampering gas turbine thermal efficiency,
reliability, availability, and maintainability.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 1 to TRL 3 by 2030.
readily amenable to practical implementation may turn out to be unachievable. The main hurdle to overcome in
that respect is that material availability can preclude the achievement of a feasible solution. This is balanced by
low (relatively speaking) risk from a resource allocation perspective because thermodynamic cycle research does
not involve complex and expensive hardware or infrastructure.
In any event, efforts spent on successful cycle design can accelerate the transition to zero-carbon hydrogen
economy.
Prima facie, this research topic applies to all types of gas turbine applications. Nevertheless, it may prove
difficult to design a cycle that satisfies demanding requirements of aircraft propulsion units (e.g., size, weight,
safety, and reliability). More likely applications include land-based electric power generation and marine vessel
propulsion.
Research Topic 6.3

Gas Turbine Cycles with Inherent Carbon Capture Ability
unconventional cycles or improvements to existing cycles that have inherent carbon capture ability (i.e., no
need for expensive and complex add-ons to capture CO2 from the exhaust stream).
Summary
Gas turbines burning natural gas generate 60 percent less CO2 per each megawatt-hour of electricity (on aver-
age) than coal-fired power plants. Carbon capture can further reduce the environmental impact of gas turbines.
Unconventional thermodynamic cycles that use oxy-combustion (i.e., the combustion of fuel using pure oxygen)
can provide high thermal efficiency with easy removal of CO2 from the flue gas stream.
Background
Because oxy-combustion uses pure oxygen instead of atmospheric air (which is mostly nitrogen), with
natural gas as a fuel (mainly methane, CH4), gas turbine exhaust consists entirely of water vapor and CO2. Thus,
capturing CO2 for industrial use or sequestration is simply a matter of cooling the gas and condensing water
vapor out of the exhaust. The biggest impediment is the power-intensive production of pure oxygen in an air
separation unit.
The Allam cycle is a patented example of an oxy-combustion cycle that is currently being investigated by
individual investors and OEMs. The Allam cycle differs from other oxy-combustion cycles in that CO2 constitutes
95 percent of the fluid flow in the combustor (by mass), with the rest made up by oxygen and fuel. The resulting
combustion product is 90 percent CO2 and the parasitic power consumption of the air separation unit is minimized
by the lower oxygen requirement. A 50-megawatt thermal (MWth) demonstration plant is being built in Texas
at a projected cost of $140 million, funded partly by major players in the power industry.51 The commissioning
and testing of the combustor as a stand-alone unit in a building adjacent to the turbine building was undertaken
51 For details, refer to the website of the primary technology developer, NET Power, http://www.netpower.com.

in late 2018. In 2019, the entire plant is expected to start the test runs. A 300 MW electrical commercial plant is
said to be in the works.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing activities in this area by supplementing private research that is
already under way on the Allam cycle with an organized approach drawing on larger resources (e.g., manpower,
facilities, and funds) to find alternative oxy-combustion cycles that would be easier to incorporate in a gas turbine.
This research topic would significantly help to advance oxyfuel-combustion gas turbine technology from TRL 3
to TRL 6 by 2030.
readily amenable to practical implementation may turn out to be unachievable. This is balanced by low (relatively
speaking) risk from a resource allocation perspective, because thermodynamic cycle research does not involve
complex and expensive hardware or infrastructure.
Even if the goal of a commercially ready product is not achieved by 2030, the lessons learned along the way
would more than justify the research and development expenditure.
This research topic applies to stationary gas turbine applications—more specifically, land-based gas turbines
for electric power generation. (It is practically impossible to store or use captured carbon—very difficult to achieve
in the first place—on a moving platform with extremely limited space.)

relationship with the unconventional thermodynamic cycles research area are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 7: SYSTEM INTEGRATION

Research Area Summary Statement: Improve, modify, and/or expand the conventional gas turbine architecture
(i.e., a compressor module, combustor module, and turbine module on a common shaft in the direction of gas
flow) to enable the development of gas turbines with higher performance and/or greater breadth of application.
Unconventional
Thermodynamic
Cycles
Combustion Simulations and
System Validation Experiments
Integration
FIGURE 3.11 Key interrelationships between the Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles research area and the other
research areas.

Overview
The first serial-production gas turbine as it is known today is the Jumo-004, which entered service in 1943 in
the Me-262 German interceptor aircraft. This basic architecture (i.e., a gas turbine core consisting of a compressor
module, combustor module, and turbine module on or around a common shaft in the direction of the gas flow) has
not changed since and is not expected to change substantially in the foreseeable future.
Within the conventional architecture of a gas turbine, systems integration opportunities are limited. Neverthe-
less, in the ensuing eight decades, myriad variations to the conventional architecture have been in albeit limited
commercial use. They are listed below:
• Cooling air cooler, which allows rotor or hot gas path cooling air to be extracted from the compressor and
then cooled in an external heat exchanger;
• Enhanced air-cooling system, which is similar to a cooling air cooler with a booster compressor;
• Combustor bypass, which is used for CO emission control at partial load;
• Steam cooling of hot gas path components in a gas turbine using steam from the bottoming cycle of a
combined-cycle plant;
• Intercooling52 (LMS100 aeroderivative gas turbine);
• Reheat or sequential combustion53 (GT24/26 gas turbines); and
• Recuperation (Solar’s Mercury 50).
Within the three modules of a conventional gas turbine architecture, subsystem integration could be improved
through the incorporation of component-level changes. Examples include the following:
• Blade integrated disks (blisks);

• Magnetic bearings;
• Variable stator vane in turbine stage 1;
• Trapped vortex, ultra-compact combustion;
• Auto-thermal, on-board syngas generation;
• Integrated combustor and stator vane;
• Counter-rotating open rotor (aviation only); and
• Ultra-high bypass turbofans (aviation only).
The scope of this research area could encompass the potential and feasibility of various combinations of
known options for improving system and subsystem integration (enumerated above) and as yet unknown options.
• Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: System Layout

• Closed Cycle Gas Turbines
• Hybrid Gas Turbine Systems
Research Topic 7.1

Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: System Layout
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop an optimal layout for gas turbines with pressure gain com-
bustion that derives the maximum benefit from the total pressure rise generated by the combustor.
52 Intercoolingrefers to adding a cooler between successive compressor stages to reduce mechanical compression work.
53 Reheatrefers to a two-step heat addition (combustion) process with a turbine expansion in between. The goal is to increase effective heat
addition temperature of the cycle and thus its efficiency.

Summary
PGC offers significant efficiency gain in simple or combined cycle configuration. However, the unsteady and
high-speed nature of the detonation combustion process (the most promising PGC variant) precludes straight
forward replacement of conventional combustion systems in a flange-to-flange gas turbine. Significant research
and development is requisite for an optimal architecture to cost-effectively realize the maximum benefit from PGC.
Without substantial investment into system layout/configuration, advances made in PGC technology will not be
able to make their way into a feasible commercial product.
Unlike aviation turbines, gas turbines for power generation are not hampered by space and size limitations.
Therefore, researchers and designers have more degrees of freedom available to them to arrange key system com-
ponents to alleviate the difficulties stemming from the unsteady nature of the PGC process.
Background
Additional information on PGC is provided in the section “Research Area 6: Unconventional Thermodynamic
Cycles,” above.
Benefit
This research topic would support system design optimization simultaneously and in coordination with basic
combustion system research and development. This would reduce the time required to develop a working prototype
and enable an exchange of ideas between the two research activities, thereby improving component and system
design. Postponing system design work until after the completion of combustion development will unnecessarily
delay the introduction of a working prototype by many years. Concurrent research in system and component layout
and hardware design and combustion fundamentals is the best path forward.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 6 by 2030 by concurrent research
and development on the fundamental thermal/combustion science and practical aspects of field implementation
with continuing information exchange between the two disciplines.
The research topic has high technical risk given that even after 60 years of research and development on
PGC, a commercially viable product is still not yet in sight. Moving from theory to practice has proven to be
very difficult.
This research topic applies to power generation because of the large size and weight of a PGC system.
Research Topic 7.2

Closed Cycle Gas Turbines
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop closed cycle gas turbine systems to maximize reliability,
availability, and maintainability (RAM) and thermal efficiency when using external heat sources, such as solar
and modular nuclear power plants, that eliminate carbon emissions.
Summary
Closed cycle gas turbines are readily amenable to efficient and clean power generation from carbon-free energy
sources such as solar and nuclear. Especially with working fluids such as supercritical CO2 and unconventional
thermodynamic cycles (e.g., the Allam cycle), there is a significant potential for carbon-free power generation
with or without carbon capture.
Closed cycle gas turbines are not amenable to the simple architecture of conventional (open cycle) flange-
to-flange gas turbines with only three components. The resulting complexity has been the primary hurdle to
widespread commercial acceptance even though the basic concept has been around for decades (including limited
commercial deployment). Focused research and development in system layout/hardware design optimization can
change that.

Background
Closed cycle gas turbines have been around since the 1930s. In 1939, the Swiss company Escher-Wyss built
a 2 MWe test installation in their factory in Zurich. The power cycle, with air as the working fluid in a closed
loop, was named after its inventors, J. Ackeret and C. Keller, as the “AK cycle.” Eventually, between 1950 and
1981, several experimental and commercial closed cycle gas turbine power plants were built in Europe, Japan,
and the United States.
The coupling of a high-temperature, gas-cooled nuclear reactor with a closed cycle gas turbine power conver-
sion unit using helium as the working fluid was first proposed by C. Keller in 1945. However, in the 1940s these
technologies were in their infancy—clearly, Keller was way ahead of his time. As a result, of all the closed cycle
gas turbine power plants built so far, only one, ML-1, a 400 kWe unit designed and built for the U.S. Army, had
a nuclear reactor as the heat source. All others were fossil-fueled.
In 1974, a 50 MW closed cycle helium gas turbine power plant entered service in Oberhausen, Germany. This
was an intercooled-recuperated closed cycle machine with a cycle pressure ratio of 27:1, a turbine inlet tempera-
ture of 750°C/1,400°F (85 kg/s helium mass flow rate), and a thermal efficiency of 23 percent. Alas, as a result
of myriad design shortcomings, the turbomachinery could not reach its design performance.
Even with decades of sporadic interest in its design and operation, closed cycle gas turbines have not advanced
to the state of a mature, commercial product. However, due to its unique nature (i.e., an external heat source), a
closed cycle gas turbine is a highly flexible power generation platform amenable to renewable as well as fossil
fuel-fired applications (e.g., nuclear reactor, solar tower, or coal-fired heater). This justifies a renewed focus on
research and development into this technology.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by filling a void in power generation tech-
nology. Closed cycle gas turbine system research and development is not the subject of a focused initiative. It is
mostly relegated to being an element of research into concentrated solar power, advanced modular nuclear reactors,
or gas turbines using supercritical CO2. If a breakthrough is made, this research topic could advance closed cycle
gas turbine technology from TRL 3 to TRL 7 by 2030.
This research topic has medium technical risk because of the difficulty of achieving a cost-effective design
with high reliability, operability, and maintainability.
This research topic applies to power generation and, perhaps, oil and gas, depending on the selection of the
heat source.
Research Topic 7.3

Hybrid Gas Turbine Systems
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop configurations for compact and cost-effective integration
of Brayton cycle gas turbines with other technologies (e.g., fuel cells and reciprocating engines) for high
thermal efficiency.
Summary
The performance of a simple cycle gas turbine can be significantly enhanced via integration with another
technology (as opposed to simple “attachment” as in the case of Brayton–Rankine combined cycle facility). The
best-known examples are a fuel cell–gas turbine hybrid system and turbocompounding. In hybrid systems, the
goal is to achieve compact and cost-effective integration of two constituent subsystems without degrading system
reliability or performance.
Research into hybrid gas turbine systems in the past has been sporadic, proceeding without a long-term dedi-
cated focus. When cheap fossil fuel–based centralized power generation technologies were dominant, this was a
natural outcome. Presently, sustainable (carbon-free), distributed generation presents itself as the future of electric

power generation. In a similar context, hybrid prime movers (i.e., batteries combined with a gasoline engine) have
already found their place in the car industry. Other transportation applications are within sight as well.
Background
By far, the largest loss mechanism in a gas turbine Brayton cycle is associated with the irreversible nature
of combustion. This inefficiency could be avoided, at least in part, by replacing the combustion-based Brayton
cycle heat addition with another process such as a fuel cell—specifically, a solid oxide fuel cell. In a fuel cell–gas
turbine hybrid system, the fuel cell replaces the combustor and acts as the “topping cycle.” In other words, the
fuel cell generates power through the direct conversion of the chemical energy of the fuel to (1) electrical energy
and (2) hot gas, which is then expanded in the gas turbine. In this scheme, the gas turbine acts as the bottoming
cycle. Efficiencies of up to nearly 70 percent are possible in such a system.
Research and development of key solid oxide fuel cell technologies applicable to electric power generation
systems are coordinated through the Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance. The primary focus of this research is
utility-scale power generation with a coal feedstock that generates cost-effective electricity with near-zero levels
of harmful emissions, facilitates capture of more than 97 percent of the carbon in the fuel, and has an efficiency
of 63 percent or more for subbituminous coal feedstock and minimal water consumption.
Immediately following World War II, turbocompound aircraft engines (which combined a conventional
piston engine with a gas turbine54) were seriously considered as the next-generation technology for high power
and efficiency. Indeed, British Napier-Nomad engine still holds the brake efficiency record for an aircraft engine.
Nevertheless, the extreme weight and complexity of the turbocompound engine made it no match for much simpler
and lighter gas turbines. For stationary shaft or electric power generation, however, turbocompounding still holds
significant efficiency advantage at small ratings (e.g., 100 MW class).
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by developing hybrid gas turbine systems,
which can be advantageous in certain applications such as small-scale distributed generation or cogeneration.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 7 by 2030 by reducing the system
cost without hampering thermal efficiency or RAM.
Despite the technical challenges involved, this research topic has medium technical risk primarily because of
the large body of work done earlier. Economic and commercial considerations such as established manufacturing
base and cheap fuel precluded to make the final push into the proverbial next step. A focused effort with match-
ing resources, assisted by changing priorities (i.e., carbon-free power generation in sync with a large renewable
portfolio), can accomplish this.
This research topic applies primarily to power generation applications. Size and weight would likely make
aviation applications impractical.

relationship with the system integration research area are not shown.
54 Turbocompounding is different from the widely used turbocharging in that both the engine and the turbine contribute to shaft power
generation. In turbocharging, there is no net shaft output generated by the turbocharger.

Thermal
Management
Combustion Simulations and
System Validation Experiments
Integration
Unconventional
Digital Twins and Thermodynamic
Their Supporting Cycles
Infrastructure
FIGURE 3.12 Key interrelationships between the System Integration research area and the other research areas.
RESEARCH AREA 8: CONDITION-BASED OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE

Research Area Summary Statement: Develop technologies that will improve operation of gas turbines by
reducing the amount of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, thereby reducing unscheduled shutdowns.
Overview
The most basic approach to the maintenance of mechanical systems is limited to repairing them when they
fail. Preventive maintenance reduces system breakdowns by conducting maintenance before system failure. The
most basic approach to preventive maintenance uses a schedule with predetermined intervals between specified
maintenance actions. Preventive maintenance of this type is not affected by system operating status or level of per-
formance. Over time, the desire to maximize the reliability and availability of some systems has greatly increased
the cost of preventive maintenance. In order to reduce these costs, condition-based maintenance practices were
developed. Condition-based maintenance determines when preventive maintenance is needed based on information
collected during system operation rather than relying on a predetermined maintenance schedule. Condition-based
maintenance consists of three steps: (1) data acquisition, (2) data processing, and (3) maintenance decision making.
For gas turbines, the adoption of long-term service agreements provided additional motivation to develop and
improve conditions-based maintenance. Long-term service agreements enabled gas turbine owners to predetermine
the costs of ownership. This new business model required OEMs to verify that gas turbines operated within the
contractual limits. This required sensors, data acquisition systems, and data storage and analysis over the product
life cycle. With gas turbines being closely monitored, both OEMs and owners started to exploit opportunities to
reduce risk, operating and maintenance costs, and design margins through increasingly sophisticated analysis of
sensor data. Over the years, the combination of sensor data with prognostics, digital twins, and AI has greatly
advanced the benefit of condition-based maintenance.
Condition-based operations and maintenance (CBOM) of gas turbines, for the purpose of this report, is the
next step beyond condition-based maintenance. CBOM is defined as the capability to optimize the operation,
maintenance, repair, and overhaul of gas turbines throughout their life cycles.

CBOM technologies developed under this research area would enable gas turbine owners to increase operating
hours and reduce operating costs by extending maintenance and overhaul intervals, reducing unplanned main-
tenance, reducing the time it takes to complete maintenance and overhauls, and allowing operators to schedule
maintenance and overhauls at optimal times. Reducing unplanned maintenance is of particular value. A turbine
may be shut down for much longer than it takes to conduct the maintenance as the necessary personnel, parts, and
equipment are brought to the site.
Advanced CBOM technologies will also enable gas turbine operators and manufacturers to have operational
laboratories, which will enable gas turbine owners or OEMs to have a deeper understanding of the components,
parts, and systems that have large levels of uncertainty. For instance, extending the repair interval of a new addi-
tively manufactured component on one experimental gas turbine would generate data relevant to other products and
thereby benefit the entire product family. Because of its interconnectivity, this research area can also significantly
leverage the research and technology related to digital twins and their supporting infrastructure, as discussed later
in this chapter.
• Sensors
• Inspection and Repair Technologies
• Advanced Controls
Research Topic 8.1

Sensors
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop reliable, high-capability, and low-cost sensors that will
improve the accuracy of information gained about the health of gas turbines during operation.
Summary
Sensors for gas turbines face challenging requirements in terms of size, cost, temperature, pressure, reliability,
and lifetime. Sensors capable of operating within the harsh internal environment of a gas turbine are required
to support real-time monitoring of components. Sensors are frequently used to measure temperatures of metal
components or a gas as well as pressures within a gas turbine. The signals from these sensors have traditionally
been transmitted via hard wiring. Within a gas turbine, high-pressure, high-temperature gases flow at high speed
through components with complex geometries and advanced materials. Obtaining accurate information about the
state of the gases and materials across the gas turbine provides operators with the information necessary to improve
turbine operations and reduce the cost and impact of maintenance.
Background
Each individual wired sensor requires a wire (or pair of wires) that may run long distances from the sensor
to a signal collection device. If the sensors are placed on rotating blades, slip rings are also needed. Fully instru-
menting a large gas turbine with wired sensors for system validation is time consuming (typically 3 to 6 months)
and expensive (more than $1 million), and even then, there is a high likelihood that some sensors and wiring will
fail prematurely. Wireless sensors that are easily installed, relatively inexpensive, robust, reliable, and use energy
harvesting for power would have great benefit compared to conventional wired sensors. The sensors and the signal
transmitting system would need to be capable of withstanding high temperatures, harsh environments (corrosive
and oxidizing), and vibrations for the life of the turbine component.
Temperature data are very important, and a number of different techniques are currently used to measure the
temperatures of gas turbine components. This includes wire thermocouples, sprayed thermocouples, thin film
thermocouples, pyrometers, thermal paint, thermal liquid crystals, and infrared thermography. However, each of
these techniques has limitations and would benefit from further development.

Achieving the goals of this research topic will require dedicated research on specific sensors and sensor
capabilities. Important contributions could also be made by investigating options for improving the integration of
sensors with turbine components using emerging technologies such as additive manufacturing.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by providing higher fidelity data, which
would enable a reduction in gas turbine design and operating margins. Advanced sensors with improved capabili-
ties, lower cost, wireless connectivity, longer life, and increased accuracy are needed to monitor physical conditions
such as temperature, pressure, and vibration within the gas turbine. Sensors with better reliability would reduce
the required number of sensors by reducing the need for redundancy. Additional information of interest includes
the condition of components in terms of, for example, coating spallation, cracking, and cooling flow restrictions.
It is particularly difficult to develop sensors that can function reliably in the harsh operating conditions in the
combustor and turbine modules and on rotating components. The data provided by sensors can be used to support
digital twins, new product development and validation, and operational monitoring in support of CBOM. In some
cases, improved sensors could also enable rapid introduction of new technologies.
This research topic could advance relevant technology, particularly with respect to wireless sensors, from
TRL 3 to TRL 8 by 2030.
This research topic has medium technical risk because the gas turbine operating environment is harsh and quite
often the space available to place sensors is relatively small. Powering the sensors and transmitting information
from the sensors is also a challenge because of high temperatures, corrosive environments, and rotating components.
This research topic applies to power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications because the sensor
requirements and challenges for all three gas turbine applications are similar.
Research Topic 8.2

Inspection and Repair Technologies
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop in situ inspection and repair technologies to evaluate the
degraded state of gas turbines, to maximize run time, and to minimize long-term maintenance costs.
Summary
Gas turbine maintenance costs and availability are two of the most important concerns for operators. Typically,
inspection and repair requirements are outlined in the OEM manual provided to gas turbine owners. Borescope
inspection programs traditionally are used to monitor in situ condition of key gas turbine components such as the
combustor and turbine blades and vanes. Downtime can be substantially reduced by extending the time between
planned maintenance (especially for major overhauls) and expediting return to service following maintenance.
Key tasks include the following:
• Improving the quality of in situ inspection data, thereby enabling higher confidence assessments of gas
turbine conditions.
• Assessing critical component features and capabilities.
• Tailoring in situ cleaning and maintenance.
• Improving time and material planning for maintenance.
This research topic would develop in situ inspection and repair technologies that draw from emerging tech-
nologies such as robotics, telepresence, teleoperation, AI, and automation.55
J. Eggart, C.E. Thompson, J. Sasser, and M. Merine, 2017, Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine Operating and Maintenance Considerations,
55
GER-3620M, GE Power, Atlanta, Ga., https://invent.ge/2Nj12qQ.

Background
Gas turbines with extended hours of operation will experience degradation in performance efficiency that is
typically not restored without engine downtime, disassembly, and component-level maintenance. C omponents
that are major contributors to required maintenance are gas path airfoils in the compressor, as well as hot gas
path components in the combustor and high-pressure turbine modules. The state of the art today for in situ
inspection can be described by two overarching concepts. First, inspection is manually conducted by indi-
vidual experts, assisted by limited measurement technologies, who perform navigation tasks by hand, perform
visual inspection of assets, and use their judgement to identify and classify defects. The skill sets required to
complete inspection by these means are built up over time and experience. Navigation of the spaces required
to complete inspections is very difficult in some cases, requiring great situational awareness and concentra-
tion. Interpretation of the video images of the inspection site is a second skill set, which is typically unrelated
to the first, and operators are required to travel to inspection sites in order to get the visual inspection data.
Second, fixed inspection cameras are becoming more common for large power turbines for inspecting airfoils
in a consistent way to leverage automation and AI for interpretation of inspection results. Either a camera is
positioned on a rotor blade and used to image every stator blade as the rotor is slowly rotated, or a camera
is positioned in a static position and used to image every rotor blade as the rotor is slowly rotated. These tech-
niques make it much easier to qualify maintenance staff to serve as inspectors. These techniques also make it
easier to assess inspection data using automation and AI systems. However, each of these inspections typically
(1) requires dedicated fixtures and tools, and (2) are relatively inflexible in application. In addition, these tech-
niques only work where a rotor component and a stator component are in close proximity and suitably positioned
relative to each other.
Novel combinations of the following emerging technologies would enable substantial improvements for in
situ inspection and repair:
• Teleoperation and telepresence;

• Miniaturized robotic mechanisms;
• Monocular simultaneous localization and mapping;
• Autonomous navigation;
• Virtual- and augmented-reality data presentations;
• AI-assisted interpretation of inspection data; and
• New human/machine interfaces.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research related to the following:
• Miniaturization of sensor technology and end-effector technologies for inspection and repair to be introduced
through borescope ports or other engine passages.
• Enabling inspection and repair experts to work remotely from gas turbine site, thereby reducing the skill
set required of local technicians.
• Using sensors in confined spaces, which enables spatial metadata tagging to simplify and automate
navigation.
These technology advancements will enable enhanced capability for in situ inspection and repair of key
components for defects, changes in dimensions, missing material, coating condition, debris, corrosion, damage
assessment, and rotor clearance. An additional benefit is that advanced inspection and repair technologies can
impact the existing fleet as soon as they meet technical readiness, thus resulting in a faster return on investment.
The information generated from these inspections would help validate sensor data and analytics methodologies
for monitoring gas turbine metrics and efficiency.

This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 6 or higher for many inspections
being conducted autonomously by robotic systems equipped with AI by 2030.
The research topic has medium technical risk because of the following:
• Durability of miniaturized tools. Miniaturized robotics for inspection and repair is required to maximize
the ability to navigate the remote or critical locations in the gas turbine. These tools will need to be robust
for cost and inspection purposes, but also for reliability relative to extremely high confidence that the tool
that entered the engine will exit the engine as expected and in entirety.
• Data management. New inspections and repair technologies will enable the collection of vast amounts of
data. It is not known today what data will be useful in the future, so it is important to store and aggregate
the data to help train and enable new inspection AI-based on evolving requirements.
There is also one important nontechnical risk. Regulatory changes may be required to redistribute responsibil-
ity and authority for inspections and repair using telepresence or teleoperation.
This research topic applies to gas turbines for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications. For
aviation, this research will increase time on wing, optimizing timing for component repair. For power generation
and oil and gas, it will maximize online operation and minimize long-term maintenance costs.
Research Topic 8.3

Advanced Controls
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop advanced controls to respond to electrical grid requirements
associated with the increasing operational integration of the existing power grid with renewable energy sources
and energy storage systems.
Summary
This research topic would develop “smarter” gas turbines that can be controlled more effectively by exploit-
ing information from relevant domains such as the external environment (e.g., weather forecasts), commercial
conditions (e.g., fuel cost and the price of electricity), and customer preferences (e.g., risk aversion). This research
topic would draw heavily on global advances in the state of the art of AI in general and machine intelligence
in particular. This research topic would benefit gas turbines by improving the performance through control and
reducing the operational costs of the gas turbine through the application of digital twins. It has the capability to
impact the industry in the short term, as this research topic has a relatively low development cost and because the
research results can be applied to existing gas turbines much more readily that advances in related fields such as
heat transfer, combustion, and materials.
Background
As described in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance Improvement Criteria,”
electric grids around the world are undergoing significant changes, in large part because of greater incorporation
of renewable energy sources and the development of highly distributed ground power systems.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by developing better control algorithms
that incorporate AI to enable gas turbines to operate at their optimum point, which will result in lower emissions,
improved part-load efficiencies, and extended product life. It will also enable lower maintenance and repair costs
by providing improved guidance in terms of maintenance logistics.

Condition‐Based
Operations and
Gas Turbines in Maintenance Digital Twins and
Pipeline Their Supporting
Applications Infrastructure
FIGURE 3.13 Key interrelationships between the CBOM research area and the other research areas.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 1 to TRL 8 by 2030. Such a progression is
believed to be possible because of rapid advances in AI globally, because control methods have already been in
development in several other fields, and because their application to real products is what makes sense for these
digital solutions.
The research topic has low technical risk because it focuses on developing mathematical algorithms, machine
learning, and data analytics applications. Moreover, the research area can build from ongoing research and devel-
opment in the automotive and robotics industries, whose control algorithms can be extended. There is also one
important nontechnical risk. Gas turbine life-cycle data have important value to gas turbine operators and OEMs,
and much of the data is viewed as proprietary. Establishing data sharing agreements among researchers, operators,
and OEMs are therefore essential for successful completion of this research topic.
This research topic applies primarily to power generation given that it is driven by requirements associated
with the changing electrical grid. The results of this research topic, however, could also benefit gas turbines for
aviation and oil and gas applications to the extent that improved control technologies developed would improve
their ability to meet their system requirements.

green arrow (with a single arrowhead) shows where the accomplishment of one research area will substantially
relationship with the CBOM research area are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 9: DIGITAL TWINS AND THEIR SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE

Research Area Summary Statement: Develop the capability to generate enhanced digital twins and a digital
thread infrastructure that supports them.
Overview
A digital twin is a virtual representation (or digital model) of a physical gas turbine component (e.g., blade
or vane), module (e.g., compressor, combustor, or turbine), or system (i.e., the gas turbine). High-fidelity digital
twins will accurately depict the real-time condition of the physical part (physical twin) to predict performance
issues early, facilitate optimum system operational and maintenance management, and reduce the development
and manufacturing lead time for new components through experience gained in the field.
The digital twin comprises both physics-based and probabilistic models along with data generated from all
stages of the physical system’s life. The digital twin is continually evolving to reflect the changes that occur in
the physical part during manufacture, operation, service, and repair. This is accomplished through the collection
and analysis of new information from sensors during each phase of the system life cycle in addition to input from

models. Advanced data analytics are required to handle and organize the enormous amounts of information that
feed into the digital twin. The fidelity of the model may be further enhanced through the use of machine learning.
The digital infrastructure that supports digital twins is known as the “digital thread.” The digital thread
encompasses validated models of turbine operation, structured and unstructured data, real-time data analytics,
and standards for interoperability between disparate data systems. Key functions of a digital thread are collecting,
interpreting, and transmitting data from many different sources in a variety of formats to develop and maintain the
digital twin, including an accurate history of components. Digital threads will have the ability to locate, validate,
and provide the data required by the physics-based lifing models that constitute the core of a digital twin. The
digital thread links events that define the history of a physical part. It starts when a component, module, or system
is conceived and finishes when the part is removed from service.
Digital threads will tag data with appropriate metadata to enable understanding, identification, and auto-
mated manipulation of data for archiving and retrieval. There is currently a wealth of information that could
be used to support digital twins, but the infrastructure to bring all the information together in a useful manner
is often lacking.
Ideally, the digital thread would be capable of securely retrieving and storing very large quantities of data in
human- and machine-readable formats. Sources of data include the following:
• OEMs;
• Operators (e.g., utilities, airlines, and pipeline companies);
• Third-party repair and overhaul facilities;
• Computer-aided design models;
• Internal and external manufacturing suppliers for components, including sensors;
• Alloy suppliers; and
• Casting, forging, and machining vendors.
Data of particular interest encompass the following:
• Design models;
• Operating conditions;
• Operational inspection results;
• Output of engineering analyses;
• Maintenance, repair, and overhaul;
• Manufacturing data (e.g., final dimensions);
• Material pedigrees and processing parameters;
• Traceability of data to subsystem- and system-level requirements; and
• Model-based definitions of material performance to facilitate design of components based on their specific
locations within a gas turbine (and the specific operating conditions at those locations).
Collecting and collating high-quality data has a direct impact on the usefulness and reliability of the digital
twin. Incomplete or inaccurate data may significantly degrade the importance of the digital twin. In some cases,
however, important data may be lacking. For example, some information relating to the pedigree of a part may
not be available because a vendor may view it as competition sensitive and choose not to release it.
This research area includes one research topic, which follows.
Research Topic 9.1

Digital Twins and the Digital Thread
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop digital twins and the supporting digital thread infrastructure
that is specially designed to meet the needs of a gas turbine.

Summary
This research topic focuses on the development of both digital twins and the digital thread that supports digital
twins. To optimize the performance of gas turbines and maximize component life, it is important that the influence
of changing operating parameters such as ramp rates, partial load, and over firing56 are understood, and that tools
are available to simulate and predict the outcome of such changes on an appropriate time scale. In some cases,
this will require the processes to operate in real time.
Background
Gas turbine components operate under very harsh environments. The temperatures in the turbine section often
exceed the melting temperature of the alloys, and their successful operation is made possible only through the
use of thermal barrier coatings and effective cooling configurations. Loss of a protective coating or blockage of a
cooling passage can lead to premature failure of a physical component. Digital twins fed with real-time data from
sensors can actively predict the behavior of the physical asset. This information can be used to make actionable
decisions to control the operation of the gas turbine.
Although concepts for digital twins and the digital thread have existed for many years, they are not widely
implemented for gas turbines. The aviation industry is beginning to embrace digital twins for maintenance, repair,
and overhaul,57 and OEMs are seeking to employ digital twins for power generation turbines.58 Recent advances
in digitalization have created an environment that will enable the realization of this technology. The ability of a
digital twin to accurately represent and predict the behavior of its physical twin is directly related to the availability
and fidelity of data that characterize the state and operational history of the physical part. A comprehensive model
requires high-fidelity data from all stages of life, from design, through manufacture, operation, and retirement.
This requires the capability to capture and process large quantities of structured and unstructured data, often in
real time, using data analytics. Data security is crucial, as is interoperability between disparate data systems.
Sensors are an integral part of the digital twin and digital thread, and they are essential for providing real-time
data representing the condition of the physical asset and/or the environment in which it is operating. Research
is needed to develop sensors that are (1) capable of operating under the extreme conditions within a gas turbine,
(2) tailored to fit within the geometric constraints of the turbine, and (3) able to monitor critical parameters. The
development and requirements for relevant sensors are addressed in the section “Research Area 8: Condition-Based
Operations and Maintenance,” above.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by developing models to predict the behavior
of physical parts as well as the software and tools necessary to provide a robust and effective mechanism to gather,
sort, and analyze large volumes of data from many different sources with various formats.
Some aspects of digital thread infrastructure (e.g., mechanical lifing models) have already achieved TRL 6,
and in certain niche applications (e.g., the incorporation of CMCs in aviation gas turbines by GE Aviation), the
infrastructure is also well developed (TRL 6). However, the ability to integrate necessary elements of an effective
digital twin and digital thread are not well developed for most applications and are generally at or below TRL 3
today. This research topic could advance relevant technology to TRL 6 by 2030, and a complete infrastructure
could be demonstrated as a prototype within this time frame.
56 Over firing is temporarily running the gas turbine above its design firing temperature. It is the fastest method of boosting the power output
of a gas turbine and gas turbine–combined cycle power system. Operators limit the use of over firing because excessive firing temperatures
can reduce the life of parts in the hot gas path and increase maintenance costs.
57 N. Etong, 2019, How MRO is unlocking huge opportunities for digital twins in aviation, Avionics International, March 26, http://bit
.ly/2CjAjEm.
58 GE Power Digital Solutions, 2016, GE Digital Twin: Analytic Engine for the Digital Power Plant, https://invent.ge/33lvhmB.

Structural Additive
Materials and Manufacturing
Coatings for Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines Digital Twins and High‐Fidelity Integrated

in Pipeline Their Supporting Simulations and
Applications Infrastructure Validation Experiments
Condition‐Based
System
Operations and
Integration
Maintenance
FIGURE 3.14 Key interrelationships between the Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure research area and the
other research areas.
The research topic has medium technical risk because the individual parts must be developed and validated
before being incorporated into an overall digital infrastructure.
This research topic applies to gas turbines for power generation, aviation, and oil and gas applications because
they will all benefit from having advanced digital twins supported by a robust and reliable digital thread. This will
ensure that all the pertinent data are fully utilized to support high-fidelity digital twins.

support the accomplishment of another research area. The red arrows (with an arrowhead at each end) show
where two research areas are mutually supportive to a substantial degree. Research areas that do not have a
strong interrelationship with the research area on digital twins and their supporting infrastructure are not shown.
RESEARCH AREA 10: GAS TURBINES IN PIPELINE APPLICATIONS

Research Area Summary Statement: Investigate (1) opportunities to improve the efficiency of gas turbines
in pipeline applications exposed to extended periods of partial load operation and (2) the safety implications
of gas turbines with a substantial percentage of hydrogen in the fuel.
Overview
The first U.S. long-distance natural gas pipeline (120 miles) was completed in 1891 from Indiana to Chicago.
A boom in pipeline construction took off in the 1920s.
Initially, gas pipelines were free flowing. That is, the pipelines did not have any compression equipment. As
distances increased, however, compressor stations were needed to overcome friction losses of the gases within the
pipelines. The first compressor stations used reciprocating compressors driven by internal combustion engines.
It was not until the early 1950s that gas turbines were introduced in pipeline compressor stations. These turbines

were paired with centrifugal compressors. Since then, gas turbines have been predominant in pipeline compression
stations, with electric motor–driven compressors as the most common alternative. Most reciprocating compressors
in the oil and gas industry are now found in production facilities where the volume flows are relatively small and
the desired pressure ratios are high.
The United States has a network of natural gas pipelines that include about 3 million miles of pipelines
and more than 1,400 compressor stations. Most of the compressors are driven by gas turbines. As discussed in
Chapter 2, improvements in pipeline compressor turbines would have more impact on the oil and gas industry
than gas turbines used for any other purpose. Still, in many cases large industrial power generation plants are
at the receiving end of a pipeline and therefore must be able to burn the fuels transported in the pipeline. Addi-
tional background information on pipeline turbines appears in Chapter 1. This research area features two distinct
research topics:
• Efficiency of Pipeline Gas Turbines Under Partial Load

• Safe Operation of Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications with Hydrogen Fuels
Research Topic 10.1

Efficiency of Pipeline Gas Turbines Under Partial Load
Research Topic Summary Statement: Improve the efficiency of gas turbines for natural gas pipeline com-
pressor stations while operating under partial load and while maintaining high efficiency at peak load.
Summary
The focus of this research topic has been largely neglected mainly because compressor station operators do
not need to pay for the natural gas in the pipeline that is diverted to the operation of the gas turbines in the com-
pressor station. Future emission requirements as well as efficiency improvements to minimize the carbon footprint
are likely to change this situation.
Gas turbines in pipeline applications as well as many upstream applications regularly operate at variable partial
load conditions for extended periods of times. Future pipeline operations will require more flexibility from the gas
compressor stations to balance load swings of renewable energy sources and varying consumer demands. Several
approaches have the potential to support the success of this research topic, as follows:
• Aerodynamic solutions
• Design solutions
• System solutions
Background
Aerodynamic Solutions
The operating temperatures and pressures at various points within gas turbine modules and components
change when the gas turbine operates at different loads and different ambient conditions. Improving efficiency
when operating under partial load is also constrained by trade-offs among the ability to meet emission standards,
and how quickly the turbine can accommodate load changes.
While variable geometry in the axial compressor of a gas turbine is an established and proven mechanism to
optimize gas turbine performance during start-up, shutdown, and transient operations, variable aerodynamic solu-
tions in the turbine section are not well researched. This could include bleed avoidance for lean premix gas turbines
for operation at partial load, advanced closed loop guide vane controls, and maintaining high firing temperature
at partial load. Application-specific aerodynamic solutions can be easily modified to optimize existing conditions
without paying the penalty of adjustable geometry.

Appropriate research subjects include variable geometry that allows adjusting the aerodynamic performances
or removes the need for bleed air at partial load conditions. While variable geometry in the compressor section
is well established, variable geometry in the hot section poses operational difficulties. Possible other solutions
could involve the use of methods that do not alter the flow path geometry mechanically but by aerodynamic means
(e.g., jets). Additive manufacturing provides methods to customize gas turbines for specific applications. Other
improvements include more sophisticated controls, including the full utilization of digital twin models, feedback
methods within the closed loop gas turbine control system, and other AI methods.
Methods could also allow the design of more efficient, optimized solutions because the operating range of
the individual component (i.e., airfoil) changes less, if the geometry is variable.
Methods are already used for gas turbines with two shafts that allow high firing temperatures to be main-
tained at partial load.59 These methods typically require bleeding compressed air, thus creating inefficiencies.
A method that allows maintaining a high firing temperature under partial load without bleeding would be
advantageous.60
Design Solutions
Improved designs for relatively small gas turbines could increase efficiency and improve quick start capabil-
ity. If gas turbines are most efficient at full load, a larger number of small gas turbines will be more adaptable to
changing operating conditions. Smaller gas turbines, however, are often not as efficient as larger turbines, and
using multiple small turbines instead of a single large turbine would increase the number of start and stop cycles
for the individual turbines.
System Solutions
Pipelines allow for significant storage effects, and an advanced control system could modify the operation of
compressor stations along an entire pipeline to maximize the fuel efficiency of the pipeline gas turbines as a whole.
A systems approach could lead to innovative developments such as the following:
• Hybrid drives that would allow compressors to be driven either by a gas turbine or an electric motor.
• Inlet cooling and heating to optimize the gas turbine inlet state for the anticipated load.
• Exhaust heat recovery to create power for additional compressors (e.g., turbines driven by steam or
other fluids such as supercritical CO2,61 or organic fluids compatible with the organic Rankine cycle62),
including hybrid drives. This would allow exhaust heat to generate electricity or heat a working fluid. In
either case, recovered exhaust heat could be used either to power compressors, to augment the power of
a gas turbine compressor train, to reduce gas turbine inlet temperature, or for other unrelated tasks such
as generating electricity for the grid, supporting oil and gas processes, or providing chilled air for facility
cooling.
The above system solutions could be used in combination with excess power from renewable energy sources
to support energy storage concepts, including the production and storage of hydrogen.
Another system solution could include systems that predict gas usage at the supply points of pipelines and
consequently optimize the operation of gas turbine compressors in the pipeline system.
59 Mechanical drive turbines usually have two independent shafts that rotate at different speeds. One shaft connects the air compressor
and high-pressure turbine of the gas turbine. The second shaft connects the low-pressure turbine with the mechanical load (e.g., a pump or
compressor).
60 The motivation here is different from providing combustors for low emissions at partial load. Here, the goal is to maintain high firing
temperatures that enable higher efficiency.

61 Supercritical CO refers to carbon dioxide when in a fluid state.
2
62 The operating fluid of an engine based on the organic Rankine cycle is an organic fluid with a boiling temperature that is lower than the
boiling point of water.

As discussed below, the U.S. pipeline system has immense storage capability. For example, a typical stretch
of 1 mile of 42 in. diameter pipeline under about 50 bar pressure stores about 750 MW-hr of energy. Utilizing the
existing pipelines in a changing electric power generation environment can overcome one of the biggest challenges
with intermittent renewable energy sources, which is energy storage. The United States’ vast network of pipelines
also makes it possible to distribute energy to areas where it is most needed. Research in the field of gas turbine
performance optimization is key to operate the existing assets most efficiently at all load points.
Benefit
A gas turbine that can operate at partial load with high efficiency and low levels of harmful emissions would
(1) allow gas turbines to be more competitive with electric motor drives; (2) reduce CO2 emissions; (3) reduce
fuel consumption and life-cycle cost; and (4) facilitate off-peak gas flows to natural gas power plants, which will
become increasingly important as renewable energy sources become more prevalent. In addition, these gas turbines
would provide a safer and more reliable alternative to compressor driven by electric motors, especially in regions
that are remote from power transmission lines or the electrical grid is not reliable.
The measures described above can be developed in different timelines and in some cases retrofitted in existing
facilities as they become available. For example, the systems solutions can be introduced without having to wait
for the aerodynamic or design solutions.
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by specifically targeting partial load
operations.
This research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 7 by 2030. Relevant technologies
could be developed and implemented in new gas turbines and, ideally, existing installations as well.
The research topic has medium technical risk because some of the enabling technologies needed to improve
the partial load efficiency are at relatively high TRL. Others will have to be developed and validated in prototype
testing.
This research topic applies to oil and gas and, potentially, to power generation applications.
Research Topic 10.2

Safe Operation of Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications with Hydrogen Fuels
Research Topic Summary Statement: Develop the ability for gas turbines in pipeline applications to operate
safely with varying levels of hydrogen (up to 100 percent).
Summary
The introduction of significant levels of hydrogen into the existing natural gas pipeline network would need
to overcome significant challenges. In general, the difficulty of overcoming these challenges increases as the
percentage of hydrogen increases. The challenges are described in detail in Chapter 1.63
This research topic would address challenges that impact gas turbine design and operations, such as the
need for new combustors, sensors, and energy conversion systems to enable gas turbines to operate safely and
efficiently with hydrogen fuels. This research topic would not address other challenges that impact the natural
gas pipeline system as a whole, such as the potential for hydrogen embrittlement of pipeline materials or the
need to increase flow volumes with the introduction of hydrogen in order to transport the same amount of energy
as a given volume of natural gas. Furthermore, the compression work per energy unit goes up substantially
with the introduction of hydrogen. As a consequence, the gas turbine power and turbine speed will both have
to be increased.
63 See the discussion of fuel flexibility in Chapter 1, in the section “Background Information for the Performance Improvement Criteria.”

Gas turbines used for pipeline compression stations must meet specific standards.64 Complying with these
standards will require close collaboration among technology development organizations, gas turbine OEMs, and
pipeline operators to enable the development of gas turbines that can safely operate with hydrogen fuel without
sacrificing performance.
Background
There are two main reasons for introducing a mix of hydrogen and natural gas in pipelines, as follows:
• The increase in renewable power generation capacity is leading to substantial overproduction of electricity
at certain times of the day. Producing hydrogen is one way to productively use that excess capacity.
• Many initiatives are driving the decarbonization of fuels to decrease carbon emissions.
While the generation of hydrogen with excess electricity has just begun, it is anticipated that the amount of
hydrogen that can be generated during peak production times in the future could lead to hydrogen concentrations
in natural gas pipelines up to 10 percent by 2020, 20 percent by 2025, and 100 percent by 2030.65
This research topic will accelerate ongoing research for using high-hydrogen fuels in pipeline gas turbines.
As the percentage of hydrogen increases, it becomes more difficult to meet current standards and expectations
for pipeline gas turbine safety and performance. Specifically, gas turbine applications in the pipeline industry are
operated over a wide range of loads with more varied operating conditions than large power generation turbines.
Cost-effective combustion technologies are needed for operation over this range of conditions without increasing
the levels of harmful emissions or reducing gas turbine durability.
Benefit
This research topic could accelerate ongoing research in this area by designing a gas turbine combustion
system along with other components and systems that would allow safe operation of gas turbines with a fuel mix
that includes a range of hydrogen.
By 2030, this research topic could advance relevant technology from TRL 3 to TRL 8 for fuel mixtures with
up to 50 percent hydrogen and to TRL 6 with fuel mixtures substantially in excess of 50 percent hydrogen.
The research topic has medium technical risk up to concentrations of 50 percent hydrogen in the fuel, as exist-
ing combustions systems can be modified to handle the new fuel mixtures. With more than 50 percent hydrogen
in the fuel, the technical risks become high because the current dry, low NOx emissions combustion systems will
not function properly. A complete redesign of combustors and, to a lesser extent, other gas turbine modules is
therefore likely. Added complexity comes from the likely requirement to use fuel with a wide range of hydrogen
concentrations in the same gas turbine.
This research topic applies to oil and gas applications (particularly pipeline compressor stations driven by gas
turbines) and, to a lesser extent, power generation.

support the accomplishment of another research area. Research areas that do not have a strong interrelationship
with the research area on gas turbines in pipeline applications are not shown.
64 See, for example, standards promulgated by American Petroleum Institute, specifically API616 for gas turbines, API617 for natural gas
compressors, and ASME PTC22 and PTC10 for gas turbine and natural gas compressor testing respectively.
65 In this report, hydrogen concentrations are reported in terms of mole percentage (which describes the number of hydrogen molecules
present compared to the total number of gas molecules) rather than, for example, mass percentage.

Additive
Combustion Manufacturing for
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines
in Pipeline
Applications
Digital Twins and Condition‐Based
Their Supporting Operations and
Infrastructure Maintenance
FIGURE 3.15 Key interrelationships between the Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications research area and the other research areas.
RESEARCH AREAS: INTERRELATIONSHIPS AND RECOMMENDATION

The key interrelationships among the research areas are shown in Figure 3.16. The green arrows (with a single
arrowhead) show where the accomplishment of one research area will substantially support the accomplishment of
another research area. The red arrows (with an arrowhead at each end) show where two research areas are mutu-
ally supportive to a substantial degree. As shown, the different research areas are closely linked to one another,
and efforts to support gas turbine research in different areas would be most effective if research plans are well
coordinated.66
RECOMMENDATION: High-Priority Research Areas. In order to expedite the process of improving and
creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design and manufacture of gas turbines,
the Department of Energy (DOE), other government agencies, industry, and academia should pursue
the following research areas as a high priority:
1.
Combustion. Enhance foundational knowledge needed for low-emission combustion systems
that (1) can work in the high-pressure, high-temperature environments that will be required
for high-efficiency cycles, including constant pressure and pressure gain combustion systems;
and (2) have operational characteristics that do not limit a gas turbine’s transient response or
turndown (i.e., the ability to operate acceptably over a range of power settings), with acceptable
performance over a range of fuel compositions.
2.
Structural Materials and Coatings. Develop (1) the technology required to produce ceramic
matrix composites (CMCs); (2) advanced computational models; and (3) advanced metallic
material and component technologies that would improve the efficiency of gas turbines and
reduce their development time and life-cycle costs.
66 The interrelationships involving each individual research areas are easier to discern in the figures at the end of the discussions of each
research area earlier in this chapter.

Additive
Manufacturing
Structural for Gas Turbines
Materials and
Coatings
Thermal
Management
Combustion
System High-Fidelity Integrated

Integration Simulations and
Gas Turbines Validation Experiments
in Pipeline
Applications
Unconventional
Thermodynamic
Digital Twins and
Cycles
Their Supporting
Infrastructure
Condition-Based
Operations and
Maintenance
FIGURE 3.16 Complex nature of the key interrelationships among the research areas.
3.
Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines. Integrate model-based definitions of gas turbine
materials (those already in use as well as advanced materials under development), materials
processes, and manufacturing machines with design tools and shop floor equipment to accelerate
design and increase component yield while reducing performance variability.
4.
Thermal Management. Develop advanced cooling strategies that can quickly and inexpensively
be incorporated into gas turbines and enable higher turbine inlet temperatures, increased
cycle pressure ratios, and lower combustor and turbine cooling flows, thereby yielding
increased thermodynamic cycle efficiency while meeting gas turbine life requirements.
5.
High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments. Develop and validate physics-
based, high-fidelity computational predictive simulations that enable detailed engineering
analysis early in the design process, including virtual exploration of gas turbine module
interactions and off-design operating conditions.
6.
U nconventional Thermodynamic Cycles. Investigate and develop unconventional
thermodynamic cycles for simple and combined cycle gas turbines to improve thermal
efficiency, while ensuring that trade-offs with other elements of gas turbine performance,
such as life-cycle cost, are acceptable.

7.
System Integration. Improve, modify, or expand the conventional gas turbine architecture (i.e., a
compressor module, combustor module, and turbine module on a common shaft in the direction
of gas flow) to enable the development of gas turbines with higher performance and/or greater
breadth of application.
8.
Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance. Develop technologies that will improve operation
of gas turbines by reducing the amount of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, thereby
reducing unscheduled shutdowns.
9.
Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure. Develop the capability to generate enhanced
digital twins and a digital thread infrastructure that supports them.
10. Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications. Investigate (1) opportunities to improve the efficiency of
gas turbines in pipeline applications exposed to extended periods of partial load operation and
(2) the safety implications of gas turbines with a substantial percentage of hydrogen in the fuel.

Additional Considerations
This chapter addresses additional key issues considered by the committee, as follows:
• State of Development Achievable by 2030

• Interrelationship Among Goals, Research Areas, and Research Topics
• Research Consortia
• Development Process
• Future Vision
STATE OF DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVABLE BY 2030

The discussion of each research topic in Chapter 2 describes the estimated state of development that could be
achieved by 2030. As is the case with some other federal agencies involved in research and development (R&D),
the Department of Energy (DOE) has defined technology readiness levels (TRLs) as a parameter to describe the
state of development of advanced technologies and systems. DOE has defined TRLs as shown in Table 4.1.
DOE typically sponsors research through TRL 6 or, in some cases, TRL 7. It is expected that R&D of a technol-
ogy through TRL 9 will not proceed unless industry funds further development as part of a product development
program. Research and technology development funded by DOE is conducted primarily by DOE laboratories,
industry, and academia.
As described in Chapter 3, the projected TRL for each research area would likely advance as indicated in
Table 4.2 if the research were to be supported by a moderate level of funding. In some cases, a TRL is not appli-
cable (N/A) because the research topic is focused on advancing the understanding of phenomena (e.g., combustion
properties) rather than the development of technologies and systems.
101

TABLE 4.1 Department of Energy Technology Readiness Levels

Relative Level
of Technology
Development TRL TRL Definition Description
System 9 Actual system The technology is in its final form and operated under the full range of operating
Operations operated over the full mission conditions. Examples include using the actual system with the full range of
range of expected wastes in hot operations.
mission conditions
System 8 Actual system The technology has been proven to work in its final form and under expected
Commissioning completed and conditions. In almost all cases, this TRL represents the end of true system
qualified through test development. Examples include developmental testing and evaluation of the system
and demonstration with actual waste in hot commissioning. Supporting information includes operational
procedures that are virtually complete. An Operational Readiness Review (ORR) has
been successfully completed prior to the start of hot testing.
7 Full-scale, similar This represents a major step up from TRL 6, requiring demonstration of an
(prototypical) system actual system prototype in a relevant environment. Examples include testing full-
demonstrated in scale prototype in the field with a range of simulants in cold commissioning.a
relevant environment Supporting information includes results from the full-scale testing and analysis of
the differences between the test environment, and analysis of what the experimental
results mean for the eventual operating system/environment. Final design is virtually
complete.
Technology 6 Engineering/ Engineering-scale models or prototypes are tested in a relevant environment. This
Demonstration pilot-scale, similar represents a major step up in a technology’s demonstrated readiness. Examples
(prototypical) system include testing an engineering-scale prototypical system with a range of simulants.a
validation in relevant Supporting information includes results from the engineering-scale testing and
environment analysis of the differences between the engineering scale, prototypical system/
environment, and analysis of what the experimental results mean for the eventual
operating system/environment. TRL 6 begins true engineering development of the
technology as an operational system. The major difference between TRL 5 and 6
is the step up from laboratory scale to engineering scale and the determination of
scaling factors that will enable design of the operating system. The prototype should
be capable of performing all the functions that will be required of the operational
system. The operating environment for the testing should closely represent the actual
operating environment.
Technology 5 Laboratory scale, The basic technological components are integrated so that the system configuration
Development similar system is similar to (matches) the final application in almost all respects. Examples include
validation in relevant testing a high-fidelity, laboratory-scale system in a simulated environment with
environment a range of simulantsa and actual waste.b Supporting information includes results
from the laboratory-scale testing, analysis of the differences between the laboratory
and eventual operating system/environment, and analysis of what the experimental
results mean for the eventual operating system/environment. The major difference
between TRL 4 and 5 is the increase in the fidelity of the system and environment
to the actual application. The system tested is almost prototypical.
4 Component or The basic technological components are integrated to establish that the pieces
system validation will work together. This is relatively “low fidelity” compared with the eventual
in laboratory system. Examples include integration of ad hoc hardware in a laboratory and
environment testing with a range of simulants and small-scale tests on actual waste.b Supporting
information includes the results of the integrated experiments and estimates of how
the experimental components and experimental test results differ from the expected
system performance goals. TRLs 4 to 6 represent the bridge from scientific research
to engineering. TRL 4 is the first step in determining whether the individual
components will work together as a system. The laboratory system will probably be
a mix of on-hand equipment and a few special-purpose components that may require
special handling, calibration, or alignment to get them to function.

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 103
TABLE 4.1 Continued
Relative Level
of Technology
Development TRL TRL Definition Description
Research 3 Analytical and Active research and development is initiated. This includes analytical studies and
to Prove experimental critical laboratory-scale studies to physically validate the analytical predictions of separate
Feasibility function and/or elements of the technology.
characteristic proof Examples include components that are not yet integrated or representative
of concept tested with simulants.a Supporting information includes results of laboratory
tests performed to measure parameters of interest and comparison to analytical
predictions for critical subsystems. At TRL 3 the work has moved beyond the paper
phase to experimental work that verifies that the concept works as expected on
simulants. Components of the technology are validated, but there is no attempt to
integrate the components into a complete system. Modeling and simulation may be
used to complement physical experiments.
Basic 2 Technology concept Once basic principles are observed, practical applications can be invented.
Technology and/or application Applications are speculative, and there may be no proof or detailed analysis to
Research formulated support the assumptions. Examples are still limited to analytic studies. Supporting
information includes publications or other references that outline the application
being considered and that provide analysis to support the concept. The step up from
TRL 1 to TRL 2 moves the ideas from pure to applied research. Most of the work
is analytical or paper studies with the emphasis on understanding the science better.
Experimental work is designed to corroborate the basic scientific observations made
during TRL 1 work.
1 Basic principles This is the lowest level of technology readiness. Scientific research begins to be
observed and translated into applied research and development. Examples might include paper
reported studies of a technology’s basic properties or experimental work that consists mainly
of observations of the physical world. Supporting information includes published
research or other references that identify the principles that underlie the technology.
aSimulants should match relevant chemical and physical properties.
b Testing with as wide a range of actual waste as practicable and consistent with waste availability, safety, as low as reasonably achievable
(ALARA), cost, and area risk is highly desirable.
SOURCE: Department of Energy, 2011, Technology Readiness Assessment Guide, Office of Management, Washington, D.C., https://www.
directives.doe.gov/directives-documents/400-series/0413.3-EGuide-04a/@@images/file.
INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG GOALS, RESEARCH AREAS, AND RESEARCH TOPICS

As noted in the Chapter 1 description of the prioritization process, the committee prioritized the goals and
research topics using three selection criteria for each:
• Goals
— Performance improvement
— Technical risk
— Breadth of application
• Research topics
— Benefit
— Technical risk
— Breadth of application
The interrelationships among the goals and research topics are indicative of their breadth of application. Interrelation-
ships among the goals are illustrated at the end of Chapter 2. Interrelationships among the research areas are illustrated
in Chapter 3 in the discussion of each research area, and they are summarized at the end of Chapter 3. The key inter-
relationships between the goals and the research topics (and, by implication, the research areas) are shown in Table 4.3.

TABLE 4.2 Advances in Technology Readiness Level

Research Areas and Topics Change in TRL
1. Combustion
1.1 Fundamental Combustion Properties N/A
1.2 Combustion Concepts to Reduce Harmful Emissions at Elevated Temperatures and Pressures TRL 1 to TRL 6
1.3 Operational and Performance Limits on Combustors TRL 2 to TRL 7
2.1 CMC Performance and Affordability TRL 3 to TRL 6
2.2 Physics-Based Lifing Models TRL 3 to TRL 6
2.3 Advanced Alloy Technologies TRL 1–3 to TRL 4–9b
3.1 Integrated Design and Additive Manufacturing TRL 4 to TRL 6
3.2 Additive Manufacturing of High-Temperature Structural Materials TRL 3 to TRL 6
3.3 Integration of Sensors, Machine Learning, and Process Analytics TRL 4 to TRL 7
4.1 Innovative Cooling TRL 1 to TRL 6
4.2 Full Conjugate Heat Transfer Models N/A
4.3 Fundamental Physics and Modeling in Particle-Laden Flows N/A
5.1 Numerical Simulation of Subsystems and System Integration TRL 2 to TRL 6
5.2 Coordinated Experimental Research TRL 2 to TRL 6
5.3 Computer Science and the Utility of Simulation Data TRL 4 to TRL 7
6.1 Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: Technology TRL 3 to TRL 6
6.2 Gas Turbine Cycles for Carbon-Free Fuels TRL 1 to TRL 3
6.3 Gas Turbine Cycles with Inherent Carbon Capture Ability TRL 3 to TRL 6
7.1 Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: System Layout TRL 3 to TRL 6
7.2 Closed Cycle Gas Turbines TRL 3 to TRL 7
7.3 Hybrid Gas Turbine Systems TRL 3 to TRL 7
8.1 Sensors TRL 3 to TRL 8
8.2 Inspection and Repair Technologies TRL 3 to TRL 6
8.3 Advanced Controls TRL 1 to TRL 8
9.1 Digital Twins and the Digital Thread TRL 3 to TRL 6
10.1 Efficiency of Pipeline Gas Turbines Under Partial Load TRL 3 to TRL 7
10.2 Safe Operation of Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications with Hydrogen Fuels TRL 3 to TRL 8a
a TRL 8 is achievable for fuel mixtures with up to 50 percent hydrogen. For fuel mixtures substantially in excess of 50 percent hydrogen, TRL 6
is a more realistic goal.
b The change in TRL level for research topic 2.3 varies for different alloys and applications. For more information see the Chapter 3 section,
“Research Topic 2.3: Advanced Alloy Technologies.”

TABLE 4.3 Interrelationships Among the Research Topics and Goals

Aviation
Power Generation Goals Goal Oil and Gas Goals
Compatibility Flexible
with Power
Renewable Levelized Demand
Energy CO2 Fuel Cost of Fuel Fuel and
Research Areas and Topics Efficiency Sources Emissions Flexibility Electricity Burn Flexibility CBOM Efficiency
1. Combustion
1.1 Fundamental Combustion X X X O X X
Properties
1.2 Combustion Concepts X X X O X X X
to Reduce Harmful
Emissions at Elevated
Temperatures and
Pressures
1.3 Operational and X X X X X X X X
Performance Limits on
Combustors
2.1 CMC Performance and X X X O
Affordability
2.2 Physics-Based Lifing O O X O X
Models
2.3 Advanced Alloy X X X
Technologies
3.1 Integrated Design and X X
Additive Manufacturing
3.2 Additive Manufacturing X O X X
of High-Temperature
Structural Materials
3.3 Integration of Sensors, X O O X X
Machine Learning, and
Process Analytics
4.1 Innovative Cooling X X X O
4.2 Full Conjugate Heat X X X O
Transfer Models
4.3 Fundamental Physics and X X X
Modeling in Particle-
Laden Flows
5.1 Numerical Simulation of X O X X
Subsystems and System
Integration
5.2 Coordinated Experimental X X X X X X
Research
5.3 Computer Science and the O O X O X
Utility of Simulation Data
continued

TABLE 4.3 Continued
Aviation
Power Generation Goals Goal Oil and Gas Goals
Compatibility Flexible
with Power
Renewable Levelized Demand
Energy CO2 Fuel Cost of Fuel Fuel and
Research Areas and Topics Efficiency Sources Emissions Flexibility Electricity Burn Flexibility CBOM Efficiency
6.1 Gas Turbines with X X
Pressure Gain
Combustion: Technology
6.2 Gas Turbine Cycles for O X X X X X X
Carbon-Free Fuels
6.3 Gas Turbine Cycles with O X X
Inherent Carbon Capture
Ability
7.1 Gas Turbines with X X X O
Pressure Gain
Combustion: System
Layout
7.2 Closed Cycle Gas X X
Turbines
7.3 Hybrid Gas Turbine X O O O O O
Systems
8.1 Sensors O O O O X
8.2 Inspection and Repair O X O O
Technologies
8.3 Advanced Controls O X O X O
9.1 Digital Twins and the O X O
Digital Thread
10.1 Efficiency of Pipeline O X X X
Gas Turbines under
Partial Load
10.2 Safe Operation of X X X
Gas Turbines in Pipeline
Applications with
Hydrogen Fuels
NOTE: Goals in green are most closely related to efficiency, and the goals in blue are most closely related to fuel flexibility. An “X” indicates
that the accomplishment of a particular research area would make a major contribution to achieving the indicated goal. An “O” indicates that a
research area would make a less important but still substantial contribution.

RESEARCH CONSORTIA
A few of the high-priority research areas identified by the study committee would benefit from consortia that
include efforts from academia, industry, and government. These consortia could (1) address precompetitive research
and (2) collaborate on the development of complex or expensive facilities that would be difficult to reproduce at
many laboratories. Complex issues that are best addressed by researchers with a wide range of expertise include
the development of sensors that would be precompetitive, high-fidelity simulations for operations in particle-laden
environments that would require complex facilities, development of advanced high-temperature structural material
and coatings that require a range of expertise, and coordination of experiments to inform unresolved physics models
in numerical simulations that would range from precompetitive research to that needing complex facilities. Areas
that would benefit from coordination on complex or expensive facilities would include combustion and heat transfer.
As noted in Chapter 3, in the section “Research Area 8: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance,” sensor
development for gas turbines must meet demanding temperature and pressure constraints associated with the harsh
internal environments of gas turbines. There is an existing group of experts working on precompetitive research
known as the Propulsion Instrumentation Working Group. This group provides a forum for all organizations
involved with gas turbines to collaboratively discuss instrumentation, sensors, measurement systems, and stan-
dards. Domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of gas turbines for aviation and power generation
work together through a teaming arrangement to advance sensors. Continuing and even strengthening the research
portfolio of this group could potentially create new opportunities to embed wireless sensors in gas turbines.
The cleanliness of the environment in which gas turbines operate has a large impact on their performance. As
discussed in Chapter 3, in the section “Research Topic 4.3: Fundamental Physics and Modeling in Particle-Laden
Flows,” a range of contaminates are of interest. Existing models are unable to predict how particle-laden environ-
ments affect turbine operations or to identify those designs that are less sensitive to particle-laden environments.
Even the simplest of test cases do not exist, which also causes a wide divide between experimental test cases
matched with numerical predictions that could lead to reasonable predictions of particle deposition under harsh
conditions. A consortium composed of experimentalists, modelers, and turbine manufacturers is needed to define
test cases ranging from simple to complex. A closely coordinated effort is needed to fully understand the relevant
parameters and physics of particle ingestion.
The DOE University Turbine Systems Research program is an example of an effective federal program that
builds tight coupling between academics and industry to research problems of interest for advanced, high-efficiency
gas turbine development. Other excellent examples of consortia that have been implemented are funded areas
through the Department of Defense (DoD) Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) program.
The Office of Naval Research has funded a MURI on thermal barrier coatings and on high-temperature corrosion,
while the U.S. Air Force has funded a MURI on facilitating access to materials data.
FINDING: Research consortia can be useful in addressing interdisciplinary issues in coordinating the work
of multiple academic institutions and other research organizations, each of which working individually cannot
together provide the critical mass to address complex problems adequately, especially in cases when expensive
research facilities are needed.
DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
The speed of product innovation in many industries is rapidly increasing. Gas turbine development may need
to follow the same trends to remain competitive over the long term. Advanced development processes to incor-
porate new methodologies and technologies to reduce research portfolio risks, improve agility, and develop an
environment of fast prototyping are required to increase the speed of gas turbine product innovation.1 Accelerating
the development process will involve investing in risky research programs. Such programs could focus on new
combustor concepts, new gas turbine architectures, or the validation and economic viability assessments of new
1 Agility refers to the ability of a research program to change direction as the program proceeds based on interim research results or other
factors.

power plant cycles. Validation of research programs as early as possible would facilitate fast learning. Potential
solutions include validating new technologies using small-scale microturbines, fast prototyping, and fast scaling.
Use of additive manufacturing could be leveraged to validate research. This approach could accelerate the over-
all development cycle time, produce faster feedback on technical feasibility and economic viability, and reduce
development risk of advanced gas turbines.
Gas turbine R&D organizations would benefit by defining an overarching mode of operation for their spon-
sored research programs similar to that utilized in the electronic industry. This overarching architecture will
include software programs from all engineering disciplines (geometry definition, analysis, and manufacturing)
that communicate seamlessly across the organization so that developmental hardware can be obtained quickly
and cheaply. Utilization of additive manufacturing to produce concept hardware for small gas turbines to validate
a technology concept before scaling the technology prototype hardware of the concept to full-size gas turbines
would round out this architecture.
Developing new generations of gas turbine designs and hardware will necessarily take longer than developing
new generations of computers and other electronic devices. Even so, the same top-down architecture described
above and the advent of additive manufacturing for high-temperature alloys can revolutionize the time and cost of
developing gas turbine technology and product. Furthermore, this approach would greatly facilitate the coordina-
tion and integration of research programs so that they are more agile and can proceed at a faster pace.
FUTURE VISION
If the recommended research is completed successfully, the vision is for 2030 gas turbine technology that
enables remarkable advances in electrical power generation, commercial and military aviation, and oil and gas
production. Continued investment in gas turbine technologies will ensure that gas turbines remain as the product
of choice for applications for which they are well suited (i.e., for applications that demand high operating effi-
ciency, power density, reliability, low levels of harmful emissions, and safety). R&D can also improve capabili-
ties of increasing importance, such as high efficiency at partial load for single and combined cycle gas turbines
with a wide range of power ratings; seamless integration into electrical grids with solar, wind, and hydroelectric
renewable energy sources and energy storage systems; reliable generation of power over a wide range of transient
operating conditions; and the ability to use fuels such as drop-in hydrocarbons and hydrogen that are produced
by renewable energy sources. The design cycles for new gas turbines will be accelerated through a combination
of advanced physics-based computational modeling capabilities enabled by high-performance computing archi-
tectures, advanced sensors, and emerging data science tools. New manufacturing technologies such as laser- and
electron-beam-based additive manufacturing will enable new performance-enhancing designs and implementation
of high-temperature materials and coatings critical to advanced designs. The expanded suite of gas turbines, sup-
ported by their digital twins, will operate predictably over their lifetimes with extended overhaul and maintenance
cycles that maximize operational capabilities. Investment at the present is critically important, as those organiza-
tions that integrate and leverage emerging computational, experimental, informatics, and additive manufacturing
approaches will be the future industry leaders.

Appendixes


Statement of Task
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will convene an ad hoc committee to identify
high-priority opportunities for improving and creating advanced technologies that can be introduced into the design
and manufacture of gas turbine engines to substantially accelerate improvements to performance (e.g., efficiency
and life-cycle cost). The committee will determine the state of development that could be achieved by 2030. Gas
turbine applications of particular interest are as follows:
• Combined cycle gas turbines to generate electrical power, such as:

— Large, stationary turbines to power the electrical grid
• Simple cycle gas turbines to generate electrical and mechanical power, such as:
— Large, stationary turbines to power the electrical grid
— Stationary turbines of various sizes to support oil and gas production and transmission
• Gas turbines for commercial and military aircraft propulsion
The priority of specific advanced technologies shall be based on their breadth of application, the degree of
improvement for individual applications, the timeliness with which the technologies could be matured, and other
factors to be determined by the committee. The scope of the study shall include compressors, combustion systems,
expanders, bearings, seals, instrumentation, and digital twins (i.e., virtual copies of operational gas turbines). In
identifying high-priority opportunities for developing advanced technologies of interest, the committee shall con-
sider the performance of current gas turbines and gas turbine components for the applications listed above, the
state of the art of relevant manufacturing technologies, and ongoing efforts to develop advanced manufacturing
technologies.
111

Compendium of High-Priority Goals, Research Areas,

Research Topics, and Their Summary Statements
The following lists collect the high-priority goals, research areas, and research topics that appear in Chapters
2 and 3, along with their summary statements.
HIGH-PRIORITY GOALS
Power Generation Goals
Goal 1: Efficiency
Increase combined cycle efficiency to 70 percent and simple cycle efficiency to more than 50 percent.
Goal 2: Compatibility with Renewable Energy Sources

Reduce turbine start-up times and improve the ability of gas turbines operating in simple and combined cycles
to operate at high efficiency while accommodating flexible power demands and other requirements associated with
integrating power generation turbines with renewable energy sources and energy storage systems.
Goal 3: CO2 Emissions

Reduce CO2 emissions to as close to zero as possible while still meeting emission standards for NOx.
Goal 4: Fuel Flexibility

Enable gas turbines for power generation to operate with natural gas fuel mixtures with high proportions (up
to 100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas fuels of various compositions.
112

APPENDIX B 113
Goal 5: Levelized Cost of Electricity

Enable reductions in the levelized cost of electricity from power generation gas turbines to ensure that these
costs remain competitive with the cost of solar and wind power systems over the long term.
Aviation Goal
Goal 1: Fuel Burn

Develop advanced technologies that will increase thermal efficiency to enable a 25 percent reduction in fuel
burn relative to today’s best-in-class turbofan engines for narrow- and wide-body aircraft, and concomitant reduc-
tions in fuel burn for military aircraft.
Oil and Gas Goals
Goal 1: Fuel Flexibility

Enable gas turbines for natural gas pipeline compressor stations (and other oil and gas applications) to oper-
ate with natural gas fuel mixtures with high proportions (up to 100 percent) of hydrogen and other renewable gas
fuels of various compositions.
Goal 2: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance (CBOM)

Develop the ability for condition-based operations and maintenance to increase periods of uninterrupted opera-
tion for natural gas pipeline compressor stations to 3 years or more without reducing availability or reliability.
Goal 3: Flexible Power Demand and Efficiency

Design gas turbines for pipeline compressor stations (and other oil and gas applications) that can handle large
load swings and operate at partial load with efficiency that exceeds the efficiency of stations that use compressors
driven by electric motors.
RESEARCH AREAS AND TOPICS
Research Area 1: Combustion

Enhance foundational knowledge needed for low-emission combustion systems that (1) can work in the
high-pressure, high-temperature environments that will be required for high-efficiency cycles, including constant
pressure and pressure gain combustion systems; and (2) have operational characteristics that do not limit a gas
turbine’s transient response or turndown (i.e., the ability to operate acceptably over a range of power settings),
with acceptable performance over a range of fuel compositions.
Research Topic 1.1: Fundamental Combustion Properties

Investigate fundamental combustion properties that control macrosystem emissions and operability charac-
teristics for constant pressure and pressure gain combustors.

Research Topic 1.2: Combustion Concepts to Reduce Harmful

Emissions at Elevated Temperatures and Pressures
Develop combustion concepts that emit acceptable levels of harmful emissions in high-efficiency cycles.
Research Topic 1.3: Operational and Performance Limits on Combustors

Develop the ability to better understand and predict combustion operational limits that restrict overall gas
turbine transient responses (e.g., varying load rapidly to back up intermittent renewable energy sources), turndown,
and the ability to accommodate variable fuel compositions.
Research Area 2: Structural Materials and Coatings

Develop (1) the technology required to produce ceramic matrix composites (CMCs); (2) advanced computa-
tional models; and (3) advanced metallic material and component technologies that would improve the efficiency
of gas turbines and reduce their development time and life-cycle costs.
Research Topic 2.1: CMC Performance and Affordability

Develop processing methods to manufacture higher quality silicon carbide (SiC) fibers at a lower cost than
is currently possible, supporting widespread implementation of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) for hot gas
path applications within gas turbines.
Research Topic 2.2: Physics-Based Lifing Models

Establish physics-based lifing models that address environmental degradation of hot section turbine materials.
Research Topic 2.3: Advanced Alloy Technologies

Develop advanced high-temperature alloys and component design concepts for these alloys.
Research Area 3: Additive Manufacturing for Gas Turbines

Integrate model-based definitions of gas turbine materials (those already in use as well as advanced materials
under development), materials processes, and manufacturing machines with design tools and shop floor equipment
to accelerate design and increase component yield while reducing performance variability.
Research Topic 3.1: Integrated Design and Additive Manufacturing

Develop advanced methods for integrating models of materials, processes, machines, and cost with computer-
aided design (CAD) software to create a complete digital engineering framework that accommodates the particular
needs of gas turbine designers for additive manufacturing.
Research Topic 3.2: Additive Manufacturing of High-Temperature Structural Materials

Develop new high-temperature structural materials and advanced additive manufacturing equipment and
processes in order to raise the thermal efficiency and operating temperature limits and increase the durability of
gas turbine components produced using additive manufacturing; in addition, accelerate the qualification process
for their application.

APPENDIX B 115
Research Topic 3.3: Integration of Sensors, Machine Learning, and Process Analytics
Integrate models of physics-based composition, processing, microstructures, and mechanical behavior with
artificial intelligence (AI) analysis and decision making of process signals into the manufacturing infrastructure
to enhance process controls and first-time yields of gas turbine components.
Research Area 4: Thermal Management

Develop advanced cooling strategies that can quickly and inexpensively be incorporated into gas turbines and
enable higher turbine inlet temperatures, increased cycle pressure ratios, and lower combustor and turbine cooling
flows, thereby yielding increased thermodynamic cycle efficiency while meeting gas turbine life requirements.
Research Topic 4.1: Innovative Cooling

Improve turbine component efficiencies through innovative cooling technologies and strategies.
Research Topic 4.2: Full Conjugate Heat Transfer Models

Develop advanced full conjugate heat transfer techniques to enable the optimum design of combustor and
turbine cooling configurations, which would minimize component cooling air flow, enable increased turbine inlet
temperatures, and allow for higher cycle pressure ratios.
Research Topic 4.3: Fundamental Physics and Modeling in Particle-Laden Flows

Develop a fundamental understanding of the physics and modeling of particle-laden flows in gas turbines that
result from their respective operating environments.
Research Area 5: High-Fidelity Integrated Simulations and Validation Experiments

Develop and validate physics-based, high-fidelity computational predictive simulations that enable detailed
engineering analysis early in the design process, including virtual exploration of gas turbine module interactions
and off-design operating conditions.
Research Topic 5.1: Numerical Simulation of Subsystems and System Integration

Develop advanced, high-fidelity, predictive numerical simulations to permit expanded exploration of design
spaces and to enhance system-level optimization to support the development of gas turbines with higher efficien-
cies, reliability, and durability, and with lower development costs.
Research Topic 5.2: Coordinated Experimental Research

Conduct experimental research to validate numerical simulations of individual and integrated gas turbine
modules.
Research Topic 5.3: Computer Science and the Utility of Simulation Data
Develop advanced methods for mapping high-fidelity numerical tools, including pre- and post-processing
algorithms, to emerging computer architectures to facilitate the adoption of the high-fidelity simulation tools by
gas turbine designers without specialized expertise in these methods.

Research Area 6: Unconventional Thermodynamic Cycles

Investigate and develop unconventional thermodynamic cycles for simple and combined cycle gas turbines to
improve thermal efficiency, while ensuring that trade-offs with other elements of gas turbine performance, such
as life-cycle cost, are acceptable.
Research Topic 6.1: Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: Technology
Develop gas turbine technology that would allow incorporation of unconventional cycles to maximize
improvements in thermal efficiency that are achievable using pressure gain combustion.
Research Topic 6.2: Gas Turbine Cycles for Carbon-Free Fuels

Develop gas turbine technology that would allow incorporation of unconventional Brayton cycle variants to
achieve high thermal efficiency from combustion of carbon-free fuels such as hydrogen.
Research Topic 6.3: Gas Turbine Cycles with Inherent Carbon Capture Ability
Develop gas turbine technology that would allow incorporation of unconventional cycles or improvements
to existing cycles that have inherent carbon capture ability (i.e., no need for expensive and complex add-ons to
capture CO2 from the exhaust stream).
Research Area 7: System Integration

Improve, modify, and/or expand the conventional gas turbine architecture (i.e., a compressor module, com-
bustor module, and turbine module on a common shaft in the direction of gas flow) to enable the development of
gas turbines with higher performance and/or greater breadth of application.
Research Topic 7.1: Gas Turbines with Pressure Gain Combustion: System Layout
Develop an optimal layout for gas turbines with pressure gain combustion that derives the maximum benefit
from the total pressure rise generated by the combustor.
Research Topic 7.2: Closed Cycle Gas Turbines

Develop closed cycle gas turbine systems to maximize reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM)
and thermal efficiency when using external heat sources, such as solar and modular nuclear power plants, that
eliminate carbon emissions.
Research Topic 7.3: Hybrid Gas Turbine Systems

Develop configurations for compact and cost-effective integration of Brayton cycle gas turbines with other
technologies (e.g., fuel cells and reciprocating engines) for high thermal efficiency.
Research Area 8: Condition-Based Operations and Maintenance

Develop technologies that will improve operation of gas turbines by reducing the amount of scheduled and
unscheduled maintenance, thereby reducing unscheduled shutdowns.

APPENDIX B 117
Research Topic 8.1: Sensors

Develop reliable, high-capability, and low-cost sensors that will improve the accuracy of information gained
about the health of gas turbines during operation.
Research Topic 8.2: Inspection and Repair Technologies

Develop in situ inspection and repair technologies to evaluate the degraded state of gas turbines, to maximize
run time, and to minimize long-term maintenance costs.
Research Topic 8.3: Advanced Controls

Develop advanced controls to respond to electric grid requirements associated with the increasing operational
integration of the existing power grid with renewable energy sources and energy storage systems.
Research Area 9: Digital Twins and Their Supporting Infrastructure

Develop the capability to generate enhanced digital twins and a digital thread infrastructure that supports them.
Research Topic 9.1: Digital Twins and the Digital Thread

Develop digital twins and the supporting digital thread infrastructure that is specially designed to meet the
needs of a gas turbine.
Research Area 10: Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications

Investigate (1) opportunities to improve the efficiency of gas turbines in pipeline applications exposed to
extended periods of partial load operation and (2) the safety implications of gas turbines with a substantial per-
centage of hydrogen in the fuel.
Research Topic 10.1: Efficiency of Pipeline Gas Turbines Under Partial Load
Improve the efficiency of gas turbines for natural gas pipeline compressor stations while operating under
partial load and while maintaining high efficiency at peak load.
Research Topic 10.2: Safe Operation of Gas Turbines in Pipeline Applications with Hydrogen Fuels
Develop the ability for gas turbines in pipeline applications to operate safely with varying levels of hydrogen
(up to 100 percent).

Committee Member Biographical Information
DAVID E. “ED” CROW, Co-Chair, is a Distinguished Professor-in-Residence in the Department of Mechanical

Engineering at the University of Connecticut and a consultant. Dr. Crow retired from Pratt & Whitney in April of
2002. He joined Pratt & Whitney in 1966 as an analytical engineer and has broad experience in multiple engineer-
ing disciplines and manufacturing. Dr. Crow is actively involved in National Science Foundation (NSF) studies on
aeronautics. He is also a member of the Connecticut Academy of Scientists and Engineers, and he belongs to the
American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the Society of Automotive Engineers, the American Institute
of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the ASME Foundation. Dr. Crow is also on the Engineering Advisory Board
at the University of Connecticut and is a member of the University of Missouri–Rolla Academy of Mechanical
Engineers. He graduated from the University of Missouri–Rolla with a B.S. in mechanical engineering, and from
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with an M.S. in mechanical engineering. Dr. Crow received his Ph.D. in mechanical
engineering from the University of Missouri–Rolla. He has served on the National Academies of Sciences, Engineer-
ing, and Medicine’s Board on Army Science and Technology, the Panel on Review of the Engineering Laboratory
at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the Committee on Human Spaceflight: Technical Panel.
TRESA M. POLLOCK, Co-Chair, is the ALCOA Distinguished Professor of Materials at the University of
California, Santa Barbara. Previously, Dr. Pollock was a professor in the Department of Materials Science and
Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University and at the University of Michigan and a research engineer at General
Electric (GE) Aircraft Engines. Her research interests include the mechanical and environmental performance of
materials in extreme environments, unique high-temperature materials processing paths, ultrafast laser–material
interactions, alloy design, and three-dimensional (3D) materials characterization. Recent research has focused on
thermal barrier coatings systems and platinum group metal-containing bond coats, new intermetallic-containing
cobalt-base materials, vapor phase processing of sheet materials for hypersonic flight systems, growth of nickel-
based alloy single crystals with a new liquid tin-assisted Bridgman technique, development of new femtosecond
laser-aided 3D tomography techniques, and development of models for integrated computational materials engi-
neering efforts. Dr. Pollock is a fellow of TMS and ASM International, an associate editor of Metallurgical and
Materials Transactions, and a former president of the Minerals, Metals, and Materials Society. She holds a Ph.D.
in materials science and engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Dr. Pollock has served
on the National Academies’ National Materials and Manufacturing Board, the Panel on Materials Science and
Engineering at the Army Research Laboratory, and the Panel on Armor and Armaments for the Army Research
Laboratory Technical Assessment Board.
118

APPENDIX C 119
SEAN BRADSHAW is the senior manager of the Hot Section Engineering Advanced Methods Group at Pratt &
Whitney Aircraft Engines. Dr. Bradshaw is also an adjunct professor of mechanical engineering at Columbia Uni-
versity, where he teaches courses in thermal-fluids engineering and aerospace propulsion. Previous assignments
at Pratt & Whitney include serving as technical team lead in combustor aerodynamics for commercial, military,
and technology development programs and as an individual contributor responsible for commercial and military
high-pressure turbine blade cooling design. Dr. Bradshaw’s current responsibilities include development, deploy-
ment, and support of advanced tools and methods for hot section aerothermal, structural, and lifing analysis. He
works directly with technical teams to solve problems focused on engine safety, reliability, and affordability and
to develop strategic plans to identify and fill analytical tool and process needs as well as support and maintain
existing tools. Dr. Bradshaw holds five patents. He holds a Ph.D. in aeronautics and astronautics from MIT. Dr.
Bradshaw is a member of the ASME International Gas Turbine Institute (IGTI) Heat Transfer Committee.
MICHAEL J. FOUST is the manager for the engineering section at General Electric (GE) Aviation in systems
design technologies. Dr. Foust leads a global team responsible for engine systems design technologies for
engine dynamics, aeromechanics, clearances, and engine mounts for all commercial, military, and aeroderiva-
tive engines. Dr. Foust held various roles of increasing responsibility in the areas of combustion design, engine
systems design, Six Sigma, and customer support. Most recently, he was manager for combustion aero design.
At GE, Dr. Foust has been a major contributor in technology development of the low-emissions twin annular
premixing swirler combustor and has received four patents. He was instrumental in engine certification of the
GP7200 engine for the Airbus A380, with a focus on certification of the combustor and high-pressure turbine.
Dr. Foust’s leadership experiences included development of combustors for the GEnx, Leap, Passport 20, GE9x,
GE38, ADVENT, and LMS100 engines. In his current role, Dr. Foust leads his team in rotordynamics, fan and
compressor aeromechanics, and turbomachinery clearances for engine programs such as GE9x, Leap, Passport
20, LM9000, and various military applications. Dr. Foust is a member of the ASME IGTI Combustion, Fuels,
and Emissions Technical Committee. He earned his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the Pennsylvania State
University (Penn State).
BRIAN GRAHAM is a principal engineer of services materials technology at General Electric (GE) Aviation,
where he has more than 30 years of experience supporting manufacturing, engineering, and engine services. Most
recently, Mr. Graham managed the Materials Technology group within GE’s Additive business, supporting param-
eter development, powder technology, design applications, and materials behavior for laser powder bed processes.
Previously, he held leadership positions supporting airfoils coatings and repair technology development, as well
as serving as engineering manager at the Aviation Component Service Center in Cincinnati. Mr. Graham holds a
B.S. in metallurgical engineering from the University of Cincinnati.
JOHN GÜLEN, Bechtel Fellow, is a senior principal engineer in the Engineering Technology Group of Bechtel
Infrastructure and Power, Inc., located in Reston, Virginia. Previously, he was a principal engineer in General Elec-
tric’s Power Systems Division (later GE Energy) in Schenectady, New York. At Bechtel, Dr. Gülen is responsible
for new technology assessment (e.g., supercritical CO2, concentrating solar power, and energy storage), steam
and gas turbine performance, operability and risk analysis, and turbo-machinery system design, analysis, and
optimization. Early in his career, Dr. Gülen worked at ESPC, Inc., focusing on transient modeling of the novel
Cascaded Humidified Advanced Turbine cycle and the data analysis of the Compressed-Air Energy Storage plant
in McIntosh, Alabama. From 1996 to 2000, he worked at Thermoflow, Inc., in Massachusetts, on the development
of industry-leading heat balance, plant cost, and performance monitoring software such as GTPRO, ThermoFlex,
and PEACE. After joining GE in 2000, Dr. Gülen worked in a variety of roles with increasing responsibilities in
various GE Energy organizations. He made significant contributions to New Product Initiation Tollgates 1-3 of
109FB-SS combined cycle power plant with A15 HEAT Steam Turbine, Baglan Bay 109H-SS CC Power Plant
Characterization Test in 2003, and IGCC 207FB NPI TG1-3 system design and performance modeling. Dr. Gülen
is an ASME fellow. He earned his Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

ALLISTER JAMES is the senior expert for materials at Siemens Energy, Inc., where he works with the Additive
Manufacturing Materials team. Previously at Siemens, Dr. James was the manufacturing lead for oxide-oxide
ceramic matrix composites, the materials lead for the Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Program, and the group
leader for superalloys. Prior to joining Siemens, he was the program manager responsible for the development
of RR1000, an alloy for compressor and disk applications, at Rolls-Royce Aerospace in the United Kingdom. At
Siemens Energy, Dr. James has led the Superalloys Group, with responsibility for the validation, manufacture, and
service support of alloys for hot section turbine components. His current interests are focused on the development
of additively manufactured turbine components using selective laser melting. Dr. James continues to support the
manufacture of disks and drums for Rolls-Royce aero-derivative engines for Siemens. He has been awarded 40
patents in the field of materials and manufacturing. Dr. James earned his Ph.D. in materials from the University
of Birmingham, United Kingdom.
TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN serves as executive director of the Strategic Energy Institute at the Georgia Institute
of Technology (Georgia Tech). Dr. Lieuwen is also a Regents’ Professor and the David S. Lewis, Jr., Chair in the
School of Aerospace Engineering. He is founder and chief technology officer of TurbineLogic, an analytics firm
working in the gas turbine industry. Dr. Lieuwen is an international authority on gas turbine technologies, both
from a research and development (R&D) perspective and from a field/operational perspective. He has authored
or edited four books, including the textbook Unsteady Combustor Physics, and has authored 350 other publica-
tions and received four patents, all of which are licensed to the gas turbine industry. Dr. Lieuwen is editor-in-chief
of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Progress book series. He is also past chair of
the Combustion, Fuels, and Emissions Technical Committee of the ASME and has served as associate editor of
Combustion Science and Technology, Proceedings of the Combustion Institute, and AIAA Journal of Propulsion
and Power. Dr. Lieuwen is a fellow of ASME and AIAA, and a recipient of the AIAA Lawrence Sperry Award,
ASME George Westinghouse Gold Medal, National Science Foundation CAREER Award, and various best paper
awards. Board positions include appointment by the Secretary of Energy to the National Petroleum Counsel, board
of governors of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and board member of the ASME International Gas Turbine Insti-
tute. Dr. Lieuwen has also served on a variety of federal review and advisory committees. Dr. Lieuwen holds a
Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Georgia Tech. He has served on the National Academies’ Review of NASA
Test Flight Capabilities and the Decadal Survey of Aeronautics.
MICHAEL J. MALONEY retired from Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines as the director of the Alloy and Coating
Material and Manufacturing Process Development Group. Previously, Dr. Maloney was manager of the Advanced
Coatings Development Group and before that a senior engineer. At Pratt & Whitney, he has led the development,
implementation, manufacturing support, and field support of turbine engine coating systems. The coating systems
consist of oxidation-resistant metallic coatings, thermal barrier coatings, wear-resistant coatings, and abradable
seal coatings. Dr. Maloney has also led the development, implementation, manufacturing support, and field service
support of nickel, cobalt, titanium, steel, and aluminum alloys used throughout the gas turbine engine. Primary
areas of R&D have consisted of ceramic thermal barrier coatings and metallic oxidation- and corrosion-resistant
coatings. These technologies are now utilized in the hot section of the new generation of advanced commercial and
military gas turbine engines. Dr. Maloney is a member of the Connecticut Academy of Science and Engineering.
He has been granted 51 U.S. patents in the area of materials and manufacturing processes relating to gas turbine
engines. Dr. Maloney earned his Ph.D. in metallurgy with a minor in ceramics from MIT.
PARVIZ MOIN is the Franklin P. and Caroline M. Johnson Professor of Mechanical Engineering and the direc-
tor of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) at Stanford University. Established in 1987, CTR is devoted to
fundamental studies of multiphysics turbulent flows and is widely recognized as the international focal point for
turbulence research, attracting diverse groups of researchers from engineering, mathematics, and physics. Dr. Moin
pioneered the use of direct numerical simulation and large eddy simulation techniques for the study of turbulence
physics, control, and modeling of fluid mechanics, and has written widely on the structure of turbulent shear flows.
His current research interests include the interaction of turbulent flows and shock waves, aerodynamic noise, hydro-

APPENDIX C 121
acoustics, aero-optics, combustion, numerical analysis, turbulence control, large eddy simulation, and parallel
computing. Dr. Moin is the co-editor of the Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics and associate editor of the Journal
of Computational Physics. He is the recipient of the NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, the AIAA
Lawrence Sperry Award, American Physical Society (APS) Fluid Dynamics Prize, AIAA Fluid Dynamics Award,
and NASA Outstanding Leadership Medal. Dr. Moin was honored with an Einstein Professorship by the Chinese
Academy of Sciences in 2009, and he was inducted into the Royal Spanish Academy of Engineering in 2014.
He is a fellow of APS and AIAA, as well as a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Dr. Moin
received a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Stanford University. He served as a former chair of the Engi-
neering Sciences Section of the National Academy of Sciences and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board.
KAREN A. THOLE is a distinguished professor and department head in mechanical engineering at Penn State.
Dr. Thole’s scholarship in research has been focused on experimental fluid mechanics and heat transfer, particularly
as applied to developing new cooling methods for gas turbine components. More recently, she has used advanced
manufacturing methods to further develop new cooling methods for turbine airfoils. Dr. Thole founded two experi-
mental research laboratories at Penn State: the Experimental and Computational Convection Lab (ExCCL) and the
Steady Thermal Aero Research Turbine (START) Lab, with both being selected as centers of excellence for two
major gas turbine manufacturers. She has published nearly 230 archival journal papers and conference proceedings
and holds three patents. Many of the cooling technologies she researched are now used on the engines that power
the Joint Strike Fighter and commercial jets. Dr. Thole has served as the chair of the board of directors for the
International Gas Turbine Institute of ASME, as governor of ASME, and as a member of the NASA Advisory Coun-
cil’s Aeronautics Committee. Dr. Thole was a recipient of a National Science Foundation CAREER Award, was
recognized by the White House as a 2011 Champion of Change in STEM, and as a Society of Women Engineers’
Distinguished Engineering Educator. She also received the ASME George Westinghouse Gold Medal for her work
in power generation, the ASME Edwin F. Church Award for her contributions to mechanical engineering educa-
tion, and the AIAA Air Breathing Propulsion Award for her technical contributions to turbine cooling. Dr. Thole
holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of Texas at Austin. She has served on the National
Academies’ Committee on Propulsion and Energy Systems to Reduce Commercial Aviation Carbon Emissions.
FREDERIC VILLENEUVE is head of Digital Innovations within the Product Research and Development busi-
ness segment of Siemens Energy, Inc. Dr. Villeneuve is in charge of the R&D digitalization strategy, and he leads
a portfolio of digital solutions for power systems based on machine learning and data science. He has been with
Siemens for more than 10 years, starting as a probabilistic design engineer, where he developed the Gas Turbine
Technology Portfolio Optimization framework, served as team lead to develop a gas turbine group focused on
advanced methods for thermo-mechanical analysis, and managed the Aerodynamics and Methods group. In this
responsibility, he led the development of new technologies to improve the aerodynamics performance of the next
generation of Siemens gas turbines. More recently, Dr. Villeneuve was the product owner of the next-generation
gas turbine design environment at Siemens, where he developed a gas turbine design platform enabling shorter
design life cycle through design data, standardized design processes, and overall system management. He is a
recipient of the George Westinghouse Silver Medal Achievement Award for distinguished service in the power
field of mechanical engineering from ASME. Dr. Villeneuve has also received the Council of Outstanding Young
Engineering Alumni Award from Georgia Tech. He has a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from Georgia Tech.
CHARLES H. WARD is chief of the Manufacturing and Industrial Technologies Division at the U.S. Air Force
Research Laboratory in the Materials and Manufacturing Directorate. Dr. Ward is also an adjunct faculty member
of materials engineering at the University of Dayton and editor-in-chief of the journal Integrating Materials and
Manufacturing Innovation. Previously, he led the efforts of the Materials and Manufacturing Directorate in inte-
grated computational materials science and engineering, and he was co-chair of the Materials Genome Initiative
Subcommittee under the National Science and Technology Council. Dr. Ward has also served as chief of the Metals,
Ceramics, and Nondestructive Evaluation Division of the Materials and Manufacturing Directorate, staff officer
to the Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Air Force for Acquisition, and Air Force liaison for materials research and

development in Europe. He has served as manager for the Air Force’s basic research program in metals and as tech-
nology maturation manager on the F-35 propulsion program. Dr. Ward’s past research studied the m icrostructure–
property relationships in titanium and titanium aluminide alloys. More recently, he has focused on efforts to build
a materials data infrastructure and model-based definitions of materials and processes. Dr. Ward is a fellow of
ASM International. He received his Ph.D. in materials science and engineering from Carnegie Mellon University.
BERNHARD WINKELMANN is director of Technology and Gas Turbine New Product Development at Solar
Turbines, Inc. Previously, Mr. Winkelman served in leadership roles concerning strategic business initiatives within
the Oil and Gas and Customer Services organizations at Solar Turbines. He has led R&D, engineering, manufactur-
ing, and testing of various turbomachinery products. Currently, Mr. Winkelmann is the executive sponsor for the
Solar Turbines–Penn State University Center of Excellence for Gas Turbines, which in its first year has already
commissioned several gas turbine-related research areas in combustion, heat transfer, aero-acoustics, and additive
manufacturing. Mr. Winkelmann has also served as executive chair for the International Gas Turbine Institute of
ASME. He earned his Diplom. Ing. in mechanical engineering, turbomachinery, and design from the University
of Applied Sciences in Bochum, Germany.

Acronyms
3D three-dimensional
AI artificial intelligence
ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers
CAD computer-aided design

CBOM condition-based operations and maintenance
CFD computational fluid dynamics
CMAS calcium, magnesium, and alumina silicate
CMC ceramic matrix composite
CO carbon monoxide
CO2 carbon dioxide
DHS Department of Homeland Security

DoD Department of Defense
DOE Department of Energy
GE General Electric
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
LES large eddy simulation

LNG liquefied natural gas
MURI Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative
NOx oxides of nitrogen
123

OEM original equipment manufacturer

ORR Operational Readiness Review
PGC pressure gain combustion
R&D research and development

RAM reliability, availability, and maintainability
RANS Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes
RQL rich-burn, quick-quench, lean burn
SiC silicon carbide
TRL technology readiness level

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COMMITTEE ON ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES

DAVID E. CROW, NAE,1 University of Connecticut, Co-Chair

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

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AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

David E. “Ed” Crow, Co-Chair

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Eric H. Ducharme, NAE,1 General Electric Aviation,

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

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2 AGGRESSIVE GOALS FOR GAS TURBINE DEVELOPMENT 26

3 HIGH-PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS AND TOPICS 39

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4 ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 101

A Statement of Task 111

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GAS TURBINE GLOBAL VIEW

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2 ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES

Total (All Sectors), 2009–August 2019,” http://bit.ly/2oOKXj6.

view=chart, accessed November 5, 2019.

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Power Generation Gas Turbine Goals

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4 ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR GAS TURBINES

Aviation Gas Turbine Goal

Oil and Gas Industry Gas Turbine Goals

RECOMMENDATION: High-Priority Research Areas. In order to expedite the process of improving

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