Climate Change A Silent Threat

CLIMATE CHANGE:
A Silent Threat
By Sylvain Richer de Forges
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3 AUDIOBOOK COLLECTIONS
6 BOOK COLLECTIONS
Table of content (1)
I. The Climate System
I.1. Overview Of The Climate System

I.2. Heat Transfer
I.3. The Global Energy Balance
I.4. The Global Water Cylce
I.5. The Global Carbon Cycle
I.6. Vulnerability Of The Climate System
II. What Is Climate Change?
II.1 What Is Climate Change ?

II.2 Natural Variability
II.3 Examples Of Past Climates
II.4 Brief History Of Present Climate Change
III. Causes Of Climate Change
III.1 Natural Sources Of Past Climate Changes

III.2 The Green House Effect
III.3 Green House Gases
III.4 Deforestation
IV. Proofs Of Climate Change
IV.1 A Global View

IV.2 Paleoclimatology
IV.3 The Co2-temperature Correlation
IV.4 The Atmospheric CO2 Peak Anomaly
IV.5 The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly
IV.6 The Computer Model
IV.7 Sea Level Rise
IV.8 Ice Mass
IV.9 Ocean Salinity Variations
IV.10 Atmospheric Water Vapor
IV.11 Various Other Proxies
© Sylvain Richer de Forges
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V. Predictions On Climate Change
V.1 Modeling The Climate

V.2 Accuracy Of Computer Model
V.3 GHG Predictions
V.4 Sea Level Rise Predictions
V.5 Surface Temperature Predictions
V.6 Precipitations Predictions
VI) Impacts of Climate Change
VI.1 Impacts On Biodiversity

VI.2 Impacts On Ecosystems
VI.3 Impacts On Oceans
VI.4 Impacts On Water Resources
VI.5 Impacts On Societies
VI.6 Impacts On Human Health
VI.7 Impacts On Extreme Weather
VI.8 Impacts On Global Economy
VII) Uncertainties And Ongoing

Research On The Impacts
Of Climate Change
VII.1 Feedback Effects

VII.2 Ice Dynamics
VII.3 Oceanic Circulation
VII.4 Ozone And Climate Change
VII.5 Land Use
VII.6 Global Dimming
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VIII) Climate Change In The
Singapore Context
VIII.1 The Singapore Context

VIII2 Siingapore Emissions And Energy Use
VIII.3 Impacts Of Climate Change
In Singapore
VIII.4 Singapore Water Resources
VIII.5 Singapore Vulnerability To Sea Level Rise
VIII.6 Health Impacts
VIII.7 Impacts On Singapore’s Biodiversity
And Ecosystems
VIII.8 Singapore National Climate
change Strategy
IX) What Can Be Done
IX.1 Where Are Actions Needed?

IX.2 What Can Individuals Do?
IX.3 What Can Corporations Do?
IX.4 What Can Governments Do?
IX.5 Sustainable Energy
IX.6 Sustainable Devlopment
IX.7 Earth Engineering
X) Common Misunderstandings About

Climate Change
Annex 1: Definitions
Annex 2: Acronyms And Abbreviations
Annex 3: Climate Change Quotes
Annex 4: References
Annex 5: Bibliography
Annex 6: Aknowledgements
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I. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
I. The Climate System | Page 1 of 11
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The Climate System:
A brief summary
The climate system is
governed by numerous
interactions between closed
loop systems. A modification of
one aspect of these systems,
such as the carbon cycle, can
influence the overall climate
system and lead to change…
• Weather: Reffers to the

changes taking place in the
atmosphere at present over
short periods of time (the
science of meteorology)
• Climate: Defines the

tendency of the weather over
long periods of time (the
science of climatology)
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The Climate System: A brief summary
The major factors that determine the patterns of
climate on earth can be explained in terms of8:
• the strength of the incident radiation from the sun, which

determines the overall planetary temperature of the earth;
• the spherical shape of the earth and the orientation of

its axis;
• the greenhouse effect of water vapour and other

radiatively active trace gases;
• the various physical, chemical and biological

processes that take place within the atmosphere-
geosphere-biosphere climate system, in particular:
- the global energy balance,

- the global water cycle,
- the global carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles;
• the rotation of the earth, which substantially modifies the

large-scale thermally-driven circulation patterns of the
atmosphere and ocean; and
• the distribution of continents and oceans.

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The Global
Climate System:
• The climate system is driven
by a close interaction between
the Atmosphere, the
Geosphere (Lithosphere,
Hydrosphere, Cryosphere) and
space
• Human activities can

affect/modify these interactions
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The Climate System: Heat Transfer
• There are constant heat exchanges occuring on the planet
between the cold poles and the warm equatorial latitudes
• The earth receives energy from the sun equal to

approximately 1360 W m-2 (as an annual average) and has
an approximate albedo (reflectivity) of 0.3. As such, without
any atmosphere the average temperature of the earth would
be approximatly – 18 deg C8
Atmospheric circulation transfers a small proportion of • There are two main systems by which temperatures are
the heat around the planet
distributed around the planet which affect the weather:
-The atmospheric air circulations

-The oceanic currents
• The transfer of heat is derived from solar energy and from

the motion of the earth around its axis
•The global temperature of the planet and how it is

distributed has an important impact on the behaviour of the
climate system
Oceanic circulation (currents) is by far the main medium for • Climate change is changing this temperature distribution
heat transfer around the planet. The general oceanic which is expected to have major repercutions on our climate
circulation is known as the oceanic conveyor belt or the and weather system
thermohaline
Photo: system
Sylvain Richer de Forges
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• The global energy balance is
the balance between incoming
energy from the sun and
outgoing heat from the earth
• The global energy balance

regulates the state of the earth's
climate and modifications to it,
as a result of natural and man-
made climate-forcing, is causing
the global climate to change
Source: NASA
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The Climate System:
The Global Water Cycle (1a)
Water (H2O) is stored in different phases on the planet and
passes from one phase to another through a cycled refered
to as the global water cycle:
There are 16 main elements of the water cycle:
• Water storage in oceans

• Evaporation
• Sublimation
• Evapotranspiration
• Water in the atmosphere
• Condensation
• Precipitation
• Water storage in ice and snow
• Snowmelt runoff to streams
• Surface runoff
• Streamflow
• Freshwater storage
• Infiltration
• Ground-water storage
• Ground-water discharge
• Springs
• Global water distribution
Photo: Sylvain Richer de Forges
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The Climate System:
The Global Water Cycle (1b)
• The water cycle plays an important role in regulating the
earth climate
• Vise versa, a change in the climate system will

significantly influence and modify the water cycle and how
water is distributed on the planet
• The transport of atmospheric moisture from the oceans,

which cover more than two-thirds of the globe, to the
continents plays a vital role to balance the discharge from
rivers and groundwater to the oceans8
• Water vapour is the most important of the greenhouse

gases, in terms of its influence on the climate8
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The Climate System:
The Global Water
Cycle (3)
• By modifying the water cycle,
we are also impacting global
sea level. The main cause of
sea level rise is due to thermal
expansion of the water body as
temperature rises. The second
main cause of global sea level
rise is ice melt from land ice
• There are also seasonal

variations in sea level and
during storm events as a result
of change in atmospheric
pressure
Source: NASA
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The Climate System:
The Global Carbon Cycle
• The carbon cycle refers to the movement of carbon, in its
many forms, between the Biosphere, Atmosphere,
Hydrosphere and the Geosphere
• There are many ways in which carbon can be stored for

long periods of time on our planet. These are referred to as
carbon sinks (ex: oceans, forests, trees…)
• Plants absorb CO2 from the atmosphere during

photosynthesis, also called primary production, and release
CO2 back in to the atmosphere during respiration
• Another major exchange of CO2 occurs between the

oceans and the atmosphere. The dissolved CO2 in the
oceans is used by marine biota in photosynthesis
• However, since the industrial revolution human activity

www.photolibrary.com has influenced the carbon cycle by changing land use and
has released huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere
• Fossil fuel burning is increasing the atmosphere's store of

carbon by 6.1 Giga tones each year
• Humans have created an imbalance in the carbon cycle

significantly influencing the earths climate system
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Vulnerability Of The Climate System
• Our climate is bonded by a series on complex interactions
between several interlocking systems
• A modification of one of these system could trigger a

destabilization of our climate
• There are many unknowns about the behavior of the

climate system and how it will react to change
• Humans are modifying the carbon cycle to the extent that

noticeable changes in the climate system are already
starting to take place
• Evidences from the past shows that sometimes the

climate suddenly changes when pressures pass a certain
point. Continuing to modify the carbon cycle at the current
rate by releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2)
and other Greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is posing
some serious risks to the stability of our climate
• If our climate was to suddenly change it would be

impossible to reverse with adaptation as the only
alternative
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II. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
II. What is Climate Change? | Page 1 of 16
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What is Climate Change? (1a)
The Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC)
refers to climate change as a change in the state of the
climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by
changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties,
and that persists for an extended period, typically decades
or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity6
The United Nations Framework Convention on climate

change (UNFCCC), refers to climate change as a change
of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods12
More commonly, climate change is a shift in long-term

average weather patterns
The international scientific community agrees that there

has been a significant change in global climate in recent
years, particularly in the polar areas6
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What is Climate Change? (1b)
The most noticeable and direct impact of climate change
observed in recent years is global warming.
Global warming is a significant increase in global ambient

temperatures
The recent warming trend is now known to be undoubtedly

mainly caused by anthropic activity due to the addition of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere mostly through the
burning of fossil fuels6
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Brief History Of The Earth Climate:
Natural Variability
• The Earth is a very dynamic planet which has undergone
many transformations throughout its history and since its
formation 4.6 billion years ago
• Climate changes have continued throughout the history of

earth. A succession of geological events and the evolution
of life have dramatically influenced the climate of the earth.
• The field of Paleoclimatology has provided information of

climate change in the ancient past, supplementing modern
observations of climate.
• Climate variability usually occurs naturally on the planet

over millions of years or suddenly as a result of a
catastrophic event (e.g. major volcanic eruptions, meteor
impacts).
• Throughout the history of the earth, the climate has been

fluctuating between cold and warm periods.
• The history of the earths’ climate can be reconstituted

using various indicators ranging from the fossil record and
species distribution to geological formations and plate
tectonics
© Sylvain Richer de Forges • Main climate eras have been identified.
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A Few Examples
Of Past Climates (1a) :
• Miocene Climate
The climate during the Miocene was similar to today's
climate, but warmer. Well-defined climatic belts stretched
from Pole to Equator, however, there were palm trees and
alligators in England and Northern Europe. Australia was
less arid than it is now
• Early Cretaceous Climate

The Early Cretaceous was a mild "Ice House" world. There
was snow and ice during the winter seasons, and Cool
Temperate forests covered the polar regions
• Early & Middle Jurassic Climate

The Pangean continent Mega-monsoon was in full swing
during the Early and Middle Jurassic. The interior of
Pangea was very arid and hot. Deserts covered what is
now the Amazon and Congo rainforests. China,
surrounded by moisture bearing winds was lush and
verdant
• Early Permian Climate (280million years ago)

Much of the Southern Hemisphere was covered by ice as
glaciers pushed northward. Coal was produced in both
Equatorial rainforests and in Temperate forests during the
warmer "Interglacial" periods
Sylvain(IPCC)
Source: Richer de Forges
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A Few Examples
Of Past Climates (Ib) :
• Late Devonian Climate (360 million years ago)
During the Late Devonian Pangea began to assemble
Thick coals formed for the first time in the tropical
rainforests in the Canadian Arctic and in southern China.
Glaciers covered parts of the Amazon Basin, which was
located close to the South Pole
• Silurian Climate (420 million years ago)

Coral reefs thrived in the clear sunny skies of the southern
Arid belt which stretched across North America and
northern Europe. Lingering glacial condiitons prevailed
near the South Pole
• Early Ordovician Climate (480 million years ago)

Mild climates probably covered most of the globe. The
continents were flooded by the oceans creating warm,
broad tropical seaways
Sylvain(IPCC)
Source: Richer de Forges
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Plate Tectonics And Past
Climate Changes
• Originated from two super continents (Gondwana and
Laurasia) continents have since been drifting across the
surface of the earth through complex geological means
• Plate tectonics played a very important role in determining

the climates successions over the continents
• Due to plate tectonics, continents have changed

dramatically across time and drifted across the globe (they
are still drifting today)
• As continents drifted across the globe, they experienced

different climate zones depending of the latitude they were
located at
Source: Universe-review18
• Such continental climate variations driven by continental

drift is a very slow process which is measured in millions of
years
Triassic 200 million years ago

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Example Of A Warmer Climate:
Early & Middle Jurassic Climate (206 To
144 Million Years Ago)
• The Jurassic is an example of a climate era which was
much warmer than the climate that we are experiencing
today.
• Much of the Jurassic world was warm and moist, with a

greenhouse climate.
• Although some arid regions remained, much of the rest of

Pangea was lush and green. Northern (Laurasian) and
southern (Gondwanan) biotas were still distinct in many
ways, but by the Jurassic, faunas had acquired a more
intercontinental character. Some animals and plants were
found nearly worldwide, instead of being restricted to
particular regions.
• The polar areas were ice-free during this period.
• The ocean surface stood at a higher level with respect to

the continents.
• Much of the earth was covered in warm and moist

tropical forest
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Example Of A Colder Climate:
The Ordovician Climate (488 To 444
Million Years Ago)
• The Ordovician is an example of a past climate which was
much colder than the climate that we are experiencing
today
• The supercontinent of Gondwana drifted over the south

pole, initiating a great Ice Age that gripped the earth at this
time.
• Gondwana, particularly Africa, straddled the South Pole

and became extensively glaciated. There were even
glaciers in what is now the Sahara.
• Metazoans were severely affected. About 60% of animal

genera became extinct, making this the second or third
most deadly mass extinction of the Phanerozoic
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Present Day Climate Change:
Global Warming
• Ones more in the history of the earth, the climate is
changing
• There is however several differences between past

changes in the climate and what we are observing today:
- Present climate change is occurring very rapidly as

opposed to past climate changes which usually occurs over
millions of years (rapid change have occurred in the past
but has a result of catastrophic events only e.g meteorite
impact, large volcanic eruptions, sudden feedback)
- Present day climate change is not a natural event but a

result of human activity
- Present day climate change can be prevented as we do

know the causes and how to limit the impacts
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Over the past century we have
observed a change in the
climate system which is unlike
any past natural climate change
that has been experienced over
the 4.6 billion years of earth
history. The difference being
that we, humans, are causing
this rapid shift and that for the
first time in history a species
has the potential to alter this
change…
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Present Climate Change: A Brief
Historical Summary (1a)
• 1824: French physicist Joseph Fourier is first to describe
a “greenhouse effect"
• 1861: Irish physicist John Tyndall carries out research on

radiant heat and the absorption of radiation by gases and
vapors including CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) and H2O (Water)
• 1896: Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first proposes

the idea of a man-made greenhouse effect
• 1938: British engineer Guy Stewart Callendar compiles

Joseph Fourrier Svante August Arrhenius temperature statistics in a variety of regions and finds that
over the previous century the mean temperature had risen
remarkably
• 1955: John Hopkins University researcher Gilbert Plass

proves that increased levels of carbon dioxide could raise
atmospheric temperature
• 1958: Roger Revelle and Suess employ geochemist

Charles Keeling to continuously monitor CO2 levels in the
atmosphere
• 1970: First Earth day, US starts to produce reports

James Hansen
highlighting concerns about global warming
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Historical Summary (1b)
• 1979: First world climate conference held in Geneva;
establishment of the World Climate Programme
• 1985: Scientists at the World Climate Program

conference at Villach in Austria confidently predict that
increased CO2 concentrations will lead to a significant rise
in the mean surface temperatures of the earth. Meanwhile,
a hole in the ozone layer is discovered over Antarctica
• 1987: The hottest year on record to date
Joseph Fourrier Svante August Arrhenius • 1988: The Intergovernmental Panel on climate change
(IPCC) is set up by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP). Dr James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies delivers his famous testimony to the U.S.
Senate. Based on computer models and temperature
measurements he is 99 percent sure that the human
caused greenhouse effect has been detected and it is
already changing the climate
• 1990: The IPCC delivers its first assessment on the state

of climate change, predicting an increase of 0.3 °C each
James Hansen
decade in the 21st century -- greater than any rise seen
over the previous 10,000 years
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Historical Summary (2a)
• 1992: The United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development, better known as the Earth Summit,
takes place in Rio de Janeiro attended by 172 countries. It
is the first unified effort to get to grips with global warming
and leads to negotiations which result in the Kyoto
Protocol.
• 1995: The hottest year on record. Four years later the

1990s are confirmed as the hottest decade in 1000 years.
John Tyndall
The IPCC report for that year states that "the balance of
evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global
climate“
• 1997: The Kyoto Protocol: Industrialized countries agree

to cut their emissions of six key greenhouse gases by an
average of 5.2 percent. Under the terms of the agreement
each country -- except developing countries -- commits to a
reduction by 2008 -- 2012 compared to 1990 levels
• 2001: Newly elected U.S. President George W. Bush

renounces the Kyoto Protocol stating that it will damage the
U.S. economy. The third IPCC report declares that the
evidence of global warming over the previous 50 years
being fueled by human activities is stronger than ever
Albert Arnold Gore, Jr
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Historical Summary (2b)
• 2003: Europe experiences one the hottest summers on
record causing widespread drought claiming the lives of
over 30,000 people
• 2005: Following ratification by Russia -- the 19th country

to do so -- in November 2004, the Kyoto Protocol becomes
a legally binding treaty. America and Australia continue
their refusal to sign up claiming reducing emissions would
damage their economies
John Tyndall
• 2007: 175 countries in total have ratified the Kyoto Treaty.
Under new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Australia ratifies the
treaty. The IPCC report for a fourth time states that
"warming of the climate is unequivocal" and that the levels
of temperature and sea rise in the 21st century will depend
on the extent or limit of emissions in the coming years.
Former vice-president Al Gore and the IPCC jointly win the
Nobel Peace Prize for services to environmentalism.

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Historical Summary (2c)
• 2008: 160 square miles of the Wilkins Shelf breaks away
from the Antarctic coast. Scientists are concerned that
Climate Change may be happening faster than previously
thought. Following the Bali talks/roadmap, negotiators from
180 countries launch formal negotiations towards a new
treaty to mitigate climate change at the Bangkok Climate
Change Talks
• Feb 2009: Barack Obama becomes president of the

John Tyndall
United States. His administration is set to facilitate the
instauration of Green renewable technologies, to
progressively reduce dependence on fossil fuel and to
strengthen international collaboration in mitigating the
impacts of climate change. There is hope that the USA will
join the international community in fighting climate change

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III. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
III. Causes of Climate Change | Page 1 of 14
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The Natural Causes Of Past Climate
Change (1): Non-human Related
There are four main natural processes which can account
for major shift in the earth climate over time:
Intense Volcanic Activity:

• Volcanoes when erupting inject a large amount of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere which can have a
significant impact on the climate. The historic record shows
www.photolibrary.com evidence of a correlation between periods of intense
volcanic activity, the level of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere and global surface temperatures.
The Milankovitch Cycles:

• They refer to the variation of the tilt of the earth's axis
away from the orbital plane. The tilt varies between 22.1o
and 24.5o averaging 23.5o. The obliquity changes on a
cycle taking approximately 40,000 years.
• As this tilt changes, the seasons become more

exaggerated. "the more tilt means more severe seasons,
warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means less
severe seasons, cooler summers and milder winters."
Source: NASA
• For an increase of 1o in obliquity, the total energy received
(none of the natural causes combined can account alone by the summer hemisphere increases by approximately
for the rapid climate shift observed today)
1%
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The Natural Causes Of Past Climate
Change (2): Non-human Related
Solar activity:
• The activity of our sun is not constant
• At periodic intervals the Sun undergoes periods of intense

activity which are reflected by the apparition of Solar Spots
on its surface
• Intense activity of the sun has some impacts on our
climate. It remains however a small influence
Tectonic Activity: Continental Drift

• The continents are constantly moving on the surface of
the earth in a process referred to as plate tectonics
• In the past the continents as we know them today were

very different
• Today's continents drifted away from one major continent

known as The Gondwana
• While moving across different latitudes of the planet,

different areas
of continents passed through different climate zones
(none of the natural causes combined can account alone
for the rapid climate shift observed today) • This is however a very slow process
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Main Warming Mechanism: The
Greenhouse Effect
How does it work
• Our earth receives most of its energy in the form of

radiation from the sun
• The incoming solar energy (Ultra Violet UV) has a very

short wavelength and passes through the atmospheric
gases unaffected to reach the earth surface
• The earth surface absorbs the solar energy and releases

it back to the atmosphere at a different wavelength as
infrared (IR) radiation, some of which goes back into space
• Some of the IR radiation emitted by the earth is absorbed
by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• The greenhouse effect insulates earth, resulting in the mild
temperatures at the earth's surface that have allowed life to • These gases absorb the infrared radiation emitted by the
flourish. The greenhouse effect is absolutely vital to allowing earth and re-radiate the energy as heat back towards the
life, as we know it to survive on earth. Without the earth causing a warming known as the greenhouse effect.
greenhouse effect, earth would be a cold planet, with a
mean surface temperature well below freezing.
• Thanks to the greenhouse effect the average global

temperature of the earth is 15◦ C
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Our current civilisation is based
on a fossil fuel economy. Fossil
fuel long stored in the earth
crust which we now burn to
generate Energy and tools
(plastics). We long thought that
burning fossil fuels will have no
impacts on our surrounding
environment. This has now
been proven wrong by our
understanding of the
greenhouse effect. The burning
of fossil fuel is indeed having
devastating effects on our
climate.
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Cause Of Present Warming: Principal
Greenhouse Gases (1)
Which are the main greenhouse gases?
• Water Vapor (H2O) : The most abundant greenhouse

gas, but importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate.
Water Vapor (H2O) Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms,
www.photolibrary.com but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation,
making these some of the most important feedback
mechanisms to the greenhouse effect4
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2) : Carbon dioxide enters the

atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural
gas, and coal), solid waste, trees and wood products, and
also as a result of other chemical reactions (e.g.,
manufacture of cement). Carbon dioxide is also removed
from the atmosphere (or “sequestered”) when it is
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle5 or
absorbed by the ocean which acts as a dumper
• Methane (CH4) : Methane is emitted during the

production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil.
Methane emissions also result from livestock and other
agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in
municipal solid waste landfills5
Nitrous Oxides (NOX) Fluorinated Gases
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Cause Of Present Warming: Principal
Greenhouse Gases (2)
• Nitrous Oxides (NOX) : Nitrous oxide is emitted during
agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during
combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste5
Water Vapor (H2O) • Fluorinated Gases : Hydrofluorocarbons,

www.photolibrary.com perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic,
powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety
of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes
used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (i.e.,
CFCs, HCFCs and halons). These gases are typically
emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent
greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High
Global Warming Potential gases (“High GWP gases”)5
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxides (NOX) Fluorinated Gases
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Our understanding of the
physical principals behind the
greenhouse effect makes it
undeniable that added man
made greenhouse gases are
causing most of the current
warming and that the
temperature rise is proportional
to the amount of GHG present
in the atmosphere
The burning of fossil fuel, which

generates the emission of
greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, is making the
greenhouse effect increasing
stronger. One can imagine the
earth as a planet surounded by
a giant greenhouse (sphere of
glass) and imagine what it
would be like to live in such
conditions. The addition of
greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere makes it behave
more and more like a glass
greenhouse. As a result of this
process the earth is getting
warmer and warmer
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Gas Atmospheric
lifetime
100-year GWP
(Global
Cause Of Present Warming:
(years) Warming Greenhouse Gases (2a)
Potential)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 50-200 1 What is the warming potential of Greenhouse Gases6?
Methane (CH4) 12 21
• All greenhouse gases (GHG) do not have the same
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 120 310 warming potential neither will they remain in the atmosphere
for the same amount of time. This means that with the same
Halogenated Chloro 264 11,700
amount of gas released into the atmosphere, some will have
Fluorocarbon (HFC-23) a much greater warming impact than other GHG
Tetrafluoromethane 50,000 6,500
(CF4) • Presently the main anthropogenic gas responsible for global
Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 23,900 warming is carbon dioxide (CO2) due to the very large
(SF6) amount released. However, other gases, such as methane
(CH4), have a much greater warming potential but are
currently released to a much lower extent (or in much lower
Source of data IPCC6 concentrations)
• Scientists predict that the current warming of the

atmosphere could trigger the release of large amounts of
much stronger greenhouse gases, (such as methane CH4)
from land fields and ocean beds.
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Gas Atmospheric
lifetime
100-year GWP
(Global
Cause Of Present Warming:
(years) Warming Greenhouse Gases (2b)
Potential)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 50-200 1 What is the warming potential of Greenhouse Gases6?
Methane (CH4) 12 21
• Scientists predict that the current warming of the
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 120 310 atmosphere could trigger the release of large amounts of
much stronger greenhouse gases, (such as methane CH4)
Halogenated Chloro 264 11,700
from land fields and ocean beds.
Fluorocarbon (HFC-23)
Tetrafluoromethane 50,000 6,500 • For convenience, scientists use carbon dioxide as a
(CF4) reference and the warming potential of other greenhouse
Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 23,900 gases is expressed in terms of CO2 equivalent (As such, CO2
(SF6) is said to have a warming potential of 1)
Source of data IPCC6 • For instance methane (CH4) is 21 times more efficient at
warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide (CO2) while
Halogenated Chloro Fluorocarbon (HCF-23) is 11,700 More
efficient!
• Ones released into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide will

remain there for 50 to 200 years while methane will only
remain about 12 years and CF4 50,000 years!
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There is no more serious doubt
that our climate is warming…
most of the warming of our
climate is very likely to be due
to increasing greenhouse gas
(GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere resulting from
human activities”
International Panel for Climate

Change 2007
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Cause Of Current Warming: Greenhouse
Gases (3): Sources
• Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown
since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between
1970 and 20046
• The largest growth in GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004

has come from energy supply, transport and industry, while
residential and commercial buildings, forestry (including
deforestation) and agriculture sectors have been growing at a
lower rate6
• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have

Source: IPCC
increased remarkably as a result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice
cores spanning many thousands of years
• As indicated on the left graphics, more than half of global GHG

emissions come from CO2 of which annual emissions have
grown between 1970 and 2004 by about 80%6
• Deforestations is the second largest source of CO2 emissions
• Energy supply and Industry remain the 2 major sources of

GHG
• Forestry, agriculture and transport are also major sources

Annual GHG by Sector (source IPCC6)
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Cause Of Current Warming:
Deforestation And Climate Change
• Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels is by far the
main cause of global warming (natural forcing included)
• However, deforestation is also an important factor which

has serious implications for long term sustainability of our
climate system (and biodiversity)
• Deforestation plays on two different levels:
-The loss of CO2 uptake by forests depletion and therefore

the increase in global CO2 levels
- The decay of organic matter and the release of significant
amounts of methane (a strong GHG gas) in the process
• Deforestation mostly comes from cutting down trees for

commercial and heating purposes, fires, pollution (acid
rains, soil and air pollution); mining; extreme events;
melting of the permafrost.
• Massive reforestation would be a relatively inexpensive

way to limit the impacts of climate change (limit the
increase of GHG and soil erosion)
• Mangroves are amongst the most efficient trees for the

storage of GHG. However, mangroves around the world
are rapidly vanishing.
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Forests are vital to the
equilibrium of our atmosphere
by removing CO2 through the
process of Photosynthesis.
Cutting down forests is
contributing in raising GHG
levels and global temperatures
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IV. MAIN PROOFS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IV. Proofs of Climate Change | Page 1 of 18
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"Scientific evidence for warming
of the Climate System is
unequivocal."
(Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change 2007)
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Warnings Of A Changing Climate:
A Global View (1a)
• The science of climate change has made a lot of progress
over the last decades. The predictions on climate change
do not come from a few individuals but from a large number
of leading scientists all over the world undertaking research
in different fields from geological/biological surveys to
atmospheric monitoring (In 1988 the IPCC was created for
this purpose)
• All the data collected from these different fields and

independent studies point to the same conclusion that our
www.photolibrary.com climate is rapidly changing at an unprecedented rate mostly
due to the action of man
Large blocks of ice breaking off ice shelf's and glaciers is now a common
event. A clear indication of a fast changing climate. In 2008, 160 square • There are two levels of evidences for climate change: one
miles of the Wilkins Shelf broke away from the Antarctic coast. Such event which is a long term trend (the most reliable) and
is expected to become more and more common evidences which are already happening within our lifespan.
We are starting to observe noticeable evidences and signs
of climate change happening at present which are a
growing concern as their frequency and strength are
predicted to increase significantly throughout the century
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Warnings Of A Changing Climate:
A Global View (1b)
Heat In 2003 Europe experienced the hottest
Waves summers on record causing widespread drought
claiming the lives of over 30,000 people. In 2009
the state of Victoria in Australia has seen its
highest temperatures ever recorded (>27°C)
which facilitated the spread of the worst and
most deadly fires in its recent history.
Storms More intense and frequent storms. In 2005

Hurricane Katrina swept the US Coast as a
www.photolibrary.com Category 5 Hurricane. 2008 was the most active
hurricane season in US recorded history
Large blocks of ice breaking off ice shelf's and glaciers is now a common Floods In 2008 India experienced its strongest monsoon
event. A clear indication of a fast changing climate. In 2008, 160 square in 50 years causing widespread floods and
miles of the Wilkins Shelf broke away from the Antarctic coast. Such event displacing millions of people
is expected to become more and more common
Drought 2008 Australia experienced its worst drought in a
s century which affected food prices
around the world
And the list goes on….
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Evidence (1a): Indicators Of Past Climate,
Paleoclimatology
• Paleoclimatology is the study of past climate, for times
prior to instrumental weather measurements.
Paleoclimatologists use clues from natural "proxy" sources
such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake
sediments to understand natural climate variability
• From this proxy scientist are able to obtain precise

information's on the past climate by reconstructing past
temperatures and atmospheric CO2 content on a year by
year basis
• For example, ice cores removed from 2 miles deep in the

Large blocks of ice breaking off ice shelf's and glaciers is now a common Antarctic contain atmospheric samples trapped in tiny air
event. A clear indication of a fast changing climate. In 2008, 160 square bubbles that date as far back as 650,000 years. These
miles of the Wilkins Shelf broke away from the Antarctic coast. Such event
samples have allowed scientists to construct a precise
historical record of greenhouse gas concentration
stretching back hundreds of thousands of years
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Evidence (1b): Indicators Of Past Climate,
Paleoclimatology
• Similar techniques can also be used to reconstruct the
temperature of the past oceans from corals
• These information's collected from Paleoclimatic studies

have been very useful in reconstructing our past climate
and confirming some hints such as the correlation between
levels of GHG in the atmosphere and the global surface
temperature of the earth
Large blocks of ice breaking off ice shelf's and glaciers is now a common
event. A clear indication of a fast changing climate. In 2008, 160 square
miles of the Wilkins Shelf broke away from the Antarctic coast. Such event
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Evidence (2): Indicators Of
Past Climate
The CO2-temperature correlation
• The information's collected from the Paleoclimatic studies

have produced (separately) two sets of graphs. One of
which represents the levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and another atmospheric temperatures. The
age of the samples taken can be measured accurately
using isotopic dating
• These graphs clearly indicate the relationship between

the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and
global temperatures are closely correlated
• This is yet again strong evidence that observed climate

Source: IPCC change is mainly caused by human activity through the
addition of greenhouse gases (mostly CO2) into the
These two graphics show an almost perfect match between levels of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and atmospheric temperatures. Such
atmosphere
perfect match cannot be accidental and provides very strong evidence of
a direct correlation between CO2 levels and temperatures • CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas (it neither has the
strongest warming potential) but considering that it is
largely predominant in the atmosphere comparatively with
other greenhouse gases it is presently the most to blame
for global warming
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Source: NASA
Evidence (3): The Atmospheric CO2 Peak Anomaly

• The comparison of Paleoclimate data and actual present days atmospheric measurements (last right section of the graphic)
have identified a remarkable anomaly in the CO2 of the atmosphere which has sharply risen since the industrial revolution
• Levels of Carbon Dioxide are higher today than at anytime in the past 650,000 years4
• Furthermore, never in history has the level of carbon dioxide increased so rapidly
• Natural causes such as volcanic activity (or solar activity) cannot explain the level of CO2 observed today
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Evidence (4): The Global Surface Temperatures Anomaly (1)
• The temperature anomaly appears here in yellow representing a sharp increase in recent years
• The above time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1850 to 2007. The year
2007 was eighth warmest on record, exceeded by 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2001 in respect.
• Eleven of the last 12 years (1995-2006) are the warmest since accurate record keeping began in 18505
• Global surface air temperatures rose three-quarters of a degree Celsius in the last century, but at twice that amount in the past
50 years5
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Source: IPCC
Evidence (4): The Global Surface Temperatures Anomaly (2)

Change in Surface Temperatures (1970-2004)
• The following map indicates the extent of warming that has been taking place over the earth surface in the last 25 years
• The surface of the earth is not warming at the same rate in different parts of the world
• The high latidues have experienced the most warming and in some parts the temperature has increased by an impressive
3.5 °C
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Evidence (5): The Computer Model
• Climate modeling which originated from meteorological
modeling is a powerful tool that scientist now use to predict how
our climate will evolve
• On these graphs, blue shaded bands show the 5 to 95%

range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only the
natural forcing due to solar activity & volcanoes. Red shaded
bands show the 5 to 95% range for 58 simulations from 14
climate models using both natural & anthropogenic forcing
• These graphics suggest that the main natural causes of

warming (solar activity & volcanoes) cannot alone explain the
current trend that we observe. It also indicates that the current
trend can only be accounted for when considering the human
impact through the anthropic addition of greenhouse gases to
the atmosphere
• This is very strong evidence that the current warming we

observing is mainly caused by human activity and cannot be
explained by natural forcing alone (volcanic activity and the
influence of the orientation of the earth on its axis referred to as
the Milankovitch cycles)
Source: IPCC
•The models well predict the observed trend when the carbon
dioxide from the burning of fossil fuel is incorporated in addition
to natural forcing
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Evidence (6a): Sea Level Rise
• This chart shows historical sea level data derived from 23 tide-
gauge measurements. The bottom chart shows the average sea
level since 1993 derived from global satellite measurements6
• Sea level rise is associated with the thermal expansion of sea

water due to climate warming (mostly) and widespread melting
of land ice4
• Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters in the last century.

In the last decade, however, the rate of rise nearly doubled4
• Sea level is not rising at the same rate everywhere on the

planet. This is due to the complex dynamic effects occurring on
the surface of the globe (ex: sea and surface currents, local
anomalies, tides, topography ). There can be differences of
Source: University of Colorado more then a meter in different areas of the planet (ex: from one
side to the other of the pacific ocean during the El Nino
anomaly)
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Evidence (6b): Sea Level Rise
• The best current estimate is that the global sea level is
presently rising at a rate of 3.4 mm a year and shows signs of
increasing
• It is important to understand that these are the current values

but that the rate of sea level rise will significantly increase as
the global temperature rises
• The current estimates are mostly based on satellite

monitoring. However, there are some great concerns from
leading scientist and recent studies that these predictions are
underestimating the rate of change to come as we still do not
fully understand the dynamic of ice stored on the continents and
how it will react to rising temperatures. It appears that ice is
melting from below which cannot be picked up by satellite.
Source: University of Colorado
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Global sea level rose about 17
centimeters in the last century.
In the last decade, however, the
rate of rise nearly doubled4
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Evidence (7): Ice Mass
• The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have shrunk in both
area and mass. Data from NASA JPL's Gravity Recovery and
Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic
kilometers of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while
Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers of ice between 2002
and 20054.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average

in both hemispheres, and may disappear altogether in certain
regions of our planet, such as the Himalayas, Australian Alps or
the Kilimanjaro, by 2030.
• Sea ice melt is a clear evidence that the sea and atmospheric
temperature are warming
• When sea ice melts it does not contribute to global sea level
rise, however land ice directly contributes to a rise in sea level
when melting.
• There are 5-6 meters worth of sea level in the Greenland ice
Source NASA sheet, and 6-7 meters in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet6 which is
of great concern if there were to melt (which has already began)
2007 and 2008 were the two lowest sea ice coverage ever recorded in
the arctic and recent studies warn of an increasing melting trend. The
artic is very likely to be completely sea ice free within a decade (which
also has important ecological and feedback consequences).
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Evidence (8):
Ocean Salinity
Variations
• Precipitation and evaporation
patterns over the oceans have
changed, increasing ocean
salinity near the equator and
decreased salinity at higher
latitudes
• As more water evaporates

near the equator, the upper
part of the oceans in these
areas increase in salinity as a
result
Surface Salinity Patterns
Source: Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Group • On the other hand, as it ice
melts, the excess fresh water
dilutes the salinity in higher
latitudes (which could have
major consequences for the
oceanic circulation patterns)
• Salinity variations provide

additional evidence of a
Sylvain Richer de Forges warming Planet
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Evidence (9): Atmospheric Water Vapor
• As Global atmospheric temperatures rise so do sea surface
temperatures
• The rise in sea surface temperature results in a more intense

rate of of evaporation resulting in atmospheric water vapor
levels to rise
• The increase in Atmospheric water vapor, is another evidence

of rapid warming of our planet
Source: IPCC
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Indicators Tendency observed Various Other Indicators Of
Date of Leaf Emergence on Appears sooner Climate Change
Trees in Spring
In addition to these major indicators providing strong evidence
Dates of Insect Appearance Appears sooner that our Climate is rapidly changing, several indicators have
and Activity been developed and can serve as proxies for further evidence:
Abundance of plankton More abundant
And many more…combining all the data from these different
Upstream Migration of sooner observations, there is no doubt that our planet is rapidly
Salmon warming
Egg-laying Dates of Birds Sooner in the season
Vineyards - areas under increased

production
Seasonal Patterns of Human More apparent and
Mortality increasing
Number of Outdoor Fires Increases
Soil conditions Dryer in some parts and

more humid in other
parts of the world
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V. PREDICTING FUTURE CLIMATE THROUGH MODELING
V. Predicting Future Climate through Modeling | Page 1 of 8
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Modeling The Climate
• Climate modeling derives from the science of
meteorology
• The atmosphere and upper part of the oceans are

sudivided into cells
• Each cell is considered individually using a complex

branch of mathematics known as integral calculus
• Very powerfull computers running millions of caculations

per second enable us to model the natural processes
influencing our climate and weather
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
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Accuracy Of Computer Models
Computer models are widely used to predict the
evolution of the climate system but how predictive
are they?
• Blue shaded bands show the 5 to 95% range for

19 simulations from 5 climate models using only
the natural forcing due to solar activity &
volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5 to 95%
range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models
using both natural & anthropogenic forcing
• This graphic suggest that the computer models

used by scientists to predict the climate are
accurate and match the actual observations that
we have observed over the past century
IPCC
• It also suggest that since the models have been

so accurate at predicting what is actually
happening they will continue to predict with a
good level of accuracy what will happen to our
climate over the century under different emission
scenarios
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GHG Emission Predictions
Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 in the
absence of additional climate policies6
•This graph shows six (6) illustrative Special Report on

Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and an 80th percentile range
of recent scenarios. The emissions include CO2, CH4, N2O
and Fluorinated gases
• All models predict a steady increase in GHG emissions

until mid century
• Some models predict that GHG will sharply decrease after

mid century mostly due a depleting oil reserves
• Some models predict that oil reserves will be used to the

limit and continue to increase until the end of the century
Source: IPCC • Some models based on recent discoveries predict that

other GHG will take over as a result of feedback effects from
rising temperatures
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Projected global average sea level rise at the end of the Sea Level Rise Predictions (1a)
21st century6
Case Sea Level rise (in m at 2090-2099 All current models agree on a rise of about half a meter by the
relative to 1980-1999) end of the century
B1 scenario 0.18-0.38
A1T scenario 0.20-0.45 • Since most of the global population lives on costal areas, sea
level rise will have a major effect on world population displacing
B2 scenario 0.20-0.43
millions of people
A1B scenario 0.21-0.48
A2 scenario 0.23-0.51 • Sea level rise will also have drastic impacts on water resources
A1F1 scenario 0.26-0.59 (salt contamination of fresh water supplies)
Source of data: IPCC
• Agricultural lands will become infertile and flooded
Source: UNEP
This illustration shows a modeling of what will happen to the

coast line of Bangladesh under a 1.5m rise
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Case Atmospheric CO2 equivalent (ppm) Sea Level Rise Predictions (1b)
B1 scenario 600
All current models agree on a rise of about half a meter by the
A1T scenario 700 end of the century
B2 scenario 800
A1B scenario 850 • Since most of the global population lives on costal areas, sea
A2 scenario 1250 level rise will have a major effect on world population displacing
A1F1 scenario 1550 millions of people
• Sea level rise will also have drastic impacts on water resources
As an indication, the different scenarios represent the above (salt contamination of fresh water supplies)
atmospheric GHG concentrations by the end of the century
• Agricultural lands will become infertile and flooded
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Surface Temperatures
Predictions
Source IPCC
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is
projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the
concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year
2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be
expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on
specific emissions scenarios
Temperature Change (°C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
Case Best estimate Likely range

Constant year 2000 concentrations 0.6 0.3-0.9
B1 scenario 1.8 1.1-2.9
A1T scenario 2.4 1.4-3.8
B2 scenario 2.4 1.4-3.8
A1B scenario 2.8 1.7-4.4
A2 scenario 3.4 2.0-5.4
A1FI scenario 4.0 2.4-6.4
Source IPCC
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Source: IPCC
Precipitations Predictions
•There is an improving understanding of projected patterns of precipitation.
• The impacts that climate change will have on precipitations patterns is uneven. Some areas will experience more
rain while others will experience much less leading to severe droughts.
• Increases in the amount of precipitation is very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical
land regions (by as much as about 20 % in the A1B scenario 2100) continuing observed patterns in recent trends6
• Globally the change in rain patterns could lead to severe potable water shortage especially in poorer countries
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VI. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
VI. Impacts of Climate Change | Page 1 of 25
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Impacts Of Climate Change On
Biodiversity (1a)
• We now know from our understanding of biology,
ecology and other life sciences that many organisms on
our planet are very sensitive to variations in temperature
and will not be able to adapt to the extremely rapid
changes which usually occurs over millions of years
• Many terrestrial animals are already under threat solely

on the basis of temperature rise
• Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species

assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average temperature
exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C6
• According to a recent study by the IUCN (October 2008)

35% of the worlds birds, 52 % of amphibians, 71 % of
warm-water reef building corals are likely to be particularly
© Sylvain Richer de Forges susceptible to climate change13.
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Biodiversity (1b)
• Global warming also induces species migrations. Many
species of plants and animals are already responding to
global warming, moving to higher elevations or closer to the
poles4
• Many scientist believe that we are on the verge of a

massive species extinction event which would be
catastrophic and have serious consequences for us human
beings. Mass extinctions of this magnitude have only
occurred five times in the history of our planet; the last
brought the end of the dinosaur age.
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Biodiversity (2a)
• Species in the high latitudes are particularly at early risk
(loss of biodiversity will not be limited to high latitudes) as
the weather in the poles (especially the North Pole) is
warming up three times faster than the rest of the planet
• Species like seals and polar bears become victims of

disappearing ice shelf's as they now have to swim greater
distances off the coast to find food supplies
• The loss of biodiversity will be one of the most dramatic

consequences of climate change. Unlike human societies
which can adapt to the changes (in some parts), numerous
species will simply disappear from the earth. One must
remember that extinction of species is forever and cannot
be reversed

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Biodiversity (2b)
• Biodiversity is a great value to our planet and should be
preserved at all costs. Loosing biodiversity will not only
mean a loss of beauty and diversity but also substantial
economical loss in terms of commerce and potential
medicines and knowledge
•.Species are already disappearing at a much greater rate

then they are studied. While extinction is a natural process,
human impacts have elevated the rate of extinction by at
least a thousand, possibly several thousand, times the
natural rate20.
• We live in a complex, interlocking, symbiotic relationship

with other organisms, and our ecosystem is a fragile one in
which our own survival depends on those of other species
• Arguments such as economic development must prevail

over the preservation of species is no longer acceptable if
we are to sustain a long term healthy environment and
ecosystems. There is nothing less durable and sustainable
that the definitive disappearance of species from our
planet. Acting to preserve them is a moral and ethical
obligation for future generations.
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We could loose 40% of the
worlds total biodiversity from the
impacts of climate change alone
by the end of the century!
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Ecosystems (1a)
• The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be
exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination
of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding,
drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other
global change drivers (e.g. landuse change, pollution,
fragmentation of natural systems, overexploitation of
resources)6
• Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by
Mangroves are vulnerable to sea level and temperature rise and are
terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century
likely to disappear along with their very rich biodiversity
and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate
change6
Biodiversity Hotspots:
In a world where conservation budgets are insufficient given the • For increases in global average temperature exceeding
number of species threatened with extinction, identifying 1.5 to 2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric CO2
conservation priorities is crucial. British ecologist Norman Myers concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in
defined the biodiversity hotspot concept in 1988 to address the ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological
dilemma that conservationists face: what areas are the most interactions and shifts in species’ geographical ranges, with
immediately important for conserving biodiversity20: predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and
ecosystem goods and services, e.g. water and food supply6
http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots/pages/map.aspx
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Ecosystems (1b)
• Many species have a very restricted repartition range
(referred to as micro endemism) around micro habitats
such as a single mountain or a lake. The disruption of
these habitats as a consequence of climate change will
also mean the disappearance of their biodiversity
• Climate change will result in significant loss of habitats

Mangroves are vulnerable to sea level and temperature rise and are
likely to disappear along with their very rich biodiversity
Biodiversity Hotspots:
In a world where conservation budgets are insufficient given the

number of species threatened with extinction, identifying
conservation priorities is crucial. British ecologist Norman Myers
defined the biodiversity hotspot concept in 1988 to address the
dilemma that conservationists face: what areas are the most
immediately important for conserving biodiversity20:
http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots/pages/map.aspx
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Marine Ecosystems
• Marine environments will be greatly affected by climate
change
• As the atmospheric temperature rise ocean surfaces

temperatures will also rise
• A slight rise in ocean temperature coupled with

acidification from CO2 uptake will cause entire coastal
ecosystems to change and possibly collapse
• Large migration of species will occur
• Many species unable to migrate to warmer areas fast

enough will become extinct
• In 2008 massive blooming of jellyfish where recorded

across the world. In some parts the blooming was found to
be due to warmer surface temperatures as a result of
global warming.
• Such events will become more frequent and will have

serious consequences on marine ecosystems such as a
decline in fish populations
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The Oceans (1a)
• The oceans are a great sink of atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide CO2 by absorbing a large amount of it
• However, the increased concentration of dissolved carbon

Dioxide in the oceans makes them become more and more
acidic. About a third of man-made carbon dioxide
emissions has dissolved into the oceans. As carbon dioxide
dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, which lowers
the ocean's alkalinity and pH level, making it more acidic
• Even a slight acidification of oceans will have an impact

on biodiversity and will put lots of species at risk
• Chicago University researchers recently found that acidity

levels increased at more than 10 times the rate predicted
by computer models designed to study the link between
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and ocean
acidity
• Acidification is also likely to impair the movement and

function of high oxygen demand fauna (e.g. squid, fish)8
• Acidification of the oceans will have a great impact on the

ability of organisms to produce calcium carbonate
necessary for their survival
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The Oceans (1b)
• A large proportion of our food supplies comes from the
oceans. Ocean acidification has the potential to
substantially destabilize all marine ecosystems which will
add onto already extreme pressures put on those
ecosystems from over fishing, overexploitation of resources
and pollution
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Coral bleaching is an early sign
of the impacts that climate
change is having on ocean
biodiversity. The death of corals
could trigger entire reef
ecosystems to collapse and
many other species to become
extinct
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Impacts Of Climate Change On Water
Resources
• Another major concern of climate change will be
increasing pressures on fresh water supplies
• Climate change will significantly affect the distribution of

rain around the globe
• While some areas will drastically start running out of

water others will experience frequent flooding due to
stronger monsoons and heavy rainfalls (both of these
events lead to a diminution of available water)
• Groundwater storage is already running out in many parts

of the world. Many of these supplies are also contaminated
and unusable
• Some areas will become much dryer, raising concerns

about the availability of fresh water for millions of people
(e.g. Central Africa)
• Many lakes will dry out as a result of increased

temperatures and evaporation
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Depletion of potable water
resources could become a
major security threat and
humanitarian crisis especially in
poor countries which cannot
afford alternative technologies
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Impacts Of Climate Change On Societies (1)
• More than 80% of the worlds population will live on the coast
lines and in urban areas by 2050
• Sea level rise/floods and droughts will displace millions of

people creating environmental refugees and is likely to trigger
world instabilities leading to conflicts for resources
• Many agricultural lands will be flooded and even greater

surfaces are likely to become contaminated by salt making them
unusable for agriculture
• Some small island states with low elevations (< 2m) will entirely
disappear (ex: The Maldives)
• Some low lying countries such as Bangladesh and the
Nederland's will loose very significant landmass
• In addition to loosing significant land mass, many of the most

threatened places are also in areas vulnerable to tropical storms.
The storm surges during such events will have even more
devastating effects.
• Some cities like Venice and New Orleans are already

experiencing serious troubles due to sea level rise and are
responding by spending billions on preventive measures (but
what will happen to cities and countries which cannot afford such
www.photolibrary.com measures?)
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Small Island States
Small Island nations will be amongst the first affected by
climate change
They will suffer from:
• Major surface area loss
• Coastal erosion
• Serious depletion of water supplies
• Rise in infectious diseases
• The numerous low lying island sates will generate

environmental refugees from different nationalities.
Where will these refugees go?
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Adaptability will become a key
factor if we are to succeed in
the fight against climate
change. Societies will have to
adapt to a rapidly changing
environment
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Human Health (1)
• The health status of millions of people is projected to be
affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition;
increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme
weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases;
increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to
higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas
related to climate change6
• Increase in global temperatures will significantly increase

the occurrence and severity of smog events in urban areas
• This will significantly reduce air quality
• Babies and the elderly will be most affected by a

decrease in air quality
European heat wave of 2003 which killed hundred of people. Such heat
waves are more likely to kill a larger amount of people in cold countries
which are not used to hot weather than in hotter countries which have
the infrastructure to deal with over heat throughout the year.
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Human Health (2)
• Change in climatic and weather patterns will affect the
distribution of infectious diseases
• Many viruses have restricted areas of occurrence due to

natural physical barriers which are governed by
temperature gradients
• Diseases such as Malaria and Dengue will move north as

temperature rises
• The number of occurrence of infectious diseases will

Source WHO21 significantly increase.
• A rise in the case of people infected by such diseases has

already begun to occur in some areas which were not of
concern a few decades ago
• As indicated on the graph, the number of case of reported

Dengue is sharply increasing worldwide. Many scientist
believe this is a direct consequence of rising temperatures.
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The spread and increase of
vector born diseases such as
Dengue and Malaria are
becoming a serious health
threat as a result of increasing
temperatures and change in
weather patterns…
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Increase Of Extreme Weather Events
• It is likely that tropical storms (cyclones) will become more
frequent and more intense as a result of increased sea surface
temperatures and moisture in the air10
• Sea level rise will have devastating effects during storms due
to surges
• Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical

cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense,
with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation
associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea-surface
Source: NOAA temperatures.
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active in • There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in
recorded history. Three records showed the hurricane
numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the
season's relentlessness. Six consecutive named storms struck
the U.S. mainland, something that had not been seen in proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is
recorded history. It's also the first time a major hurricane, those much larger than simulated
with winds of at least 111 mph, formed in five consecutive by current models for that period6.
months, July through November and Bertha spun about for 17
days, making it the longest lived storm in July
• Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward,
with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and temperature
patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over
the last halfcentury6.
• Some recent studies suggest that erratic weather events have

serious impacts on wildlife and will further contribute to a
www.photolibrary.com decline of biodiversity
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More frequent and extreme
weather events as a result of
rising temperatures could
displace millions and push
nations economies to their limit
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• Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 and 2050. Costs are relative to the baseline for least-cost trajectories towards different
long-term stabilisation levels
Source IPCC 2007
Economic Effects Of Global Warming (1a)

• While fossil fuel resources (petroleum) are running out (within 20 years), the price of energy is expected to rise significantly,
which is likely to trigger another economical crisis such as the 2008 global economy crisis. Unless governments rapidly find
solutions and plans for a progressive shift to sustainable energy use, economic instabilities appear inevitable in the decades to
come.
• All economical models point to the same conclusion: the cost of doing nothing to cut GHG emissions and limit the impacts
of climate change will far exceed the cost of mitigation and long term planning.
• Global warming has been identified as a major threat to world economies. If natural disasters become stronger and more
frequent, nations economies will be pushed to the limits, creating great instabilities – recovery efforts for natural disasters such
as Huricane Katrina cost billions of dollars. Lets just imagine what the cost would be for such events occurring on a regular
basis and in different locations).
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• Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 and 2050. Costs are relative to the baseline for least-cost trajectories towards different
long-term stabilisation levels
Source IPCC 2007
Economic Effects Of Global Warming (1b)

•As an example, the insurance industry lost 10.6 billion US dollars due to the 2008 Hurricane season alone
• Some very detailed studies have been published providing all the tools and guidance needed by governments
to take necessary actions while there is still time to significantly reduce the impacts (e.g. the Stern report)
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Economical Effects
Of Global Warming (2)
• We know that as the climate
continues to get warmer, the
number of major catastrophes
will significantly increase
• We also know from past

experience that the economic
losses resulting from such
events will be tremendous for
nations economies
• According to this data, if the

number of extreme events
increases to the level predicted,
nation economies will be
devastated
• Mitigation and preventive

measures would help to limit
such economical impacts
Source: Munich Re22
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VII. UNCERTAINTIES AND ONGOING RESEARCH ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
VII. Uncertainties and Ongoing Research on Climate Change | Page 1 of 21
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Feedback Effects (1a)
What are feedback effects?
•The climate system is very complex. Even though we can

now predict with a good level of confidence the overall
trend and mechanism of the climate system, there are still
elements which are unpredictable with accuracy.
• Not only do increased concentrations of greenhouse

gases affect the atmosphere, but also the oceans, soil and
biosphere. These effects are still not completely
understood.
A feedback effect is a 3 step process closed loop system in

which a modification of one process triggers another
mechanism, which results in the amplification or reduction
of the initial process.
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Feedback Effects (1b)
What are feedback effects?
• Feedback that results in an increase of atmospheric

temperature are referred to as positive feedback
whereas those that actually cool down the atmosphere are
negative feedbacks. In some cases positive and
negative feedbacks offset each other, which results in a
state of equilibrium. However, scientists are becoming
more and more concerned that in a number of systems,
positive feedbacks will take over which will result in a
significant increase of the current warming trend
•Most systems are now in net positive feedback, creating

an interactive set of mutually-reinforcing subsystems. This
‘second-order’ feedback system therefore accelerates
climate change. Existing models, which do not take into
account feedback effects, are therefore likely to be an
underestimation of the problem.
A feedback effect is a 3 step process closed loop system in
which a modification of one process triggers another
mechanism, which results in the amplification or reduction
of the initial process.
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Feedback Effects (2) : The Albedo Effect
• Snow and ice reflect incoming solar radiation. If there is
less ice due to melting then the exposed surfaces (land mass
or the open sea) will absorb more energy which will result in a
greater warming of the planet.
• Ice is the most extreme case of the Albedo effect, as its

bright white surface reflects light (radiation) very efficiently.
• However, the same Albedo principle also applies to any

surface on the planet.
www.photolibrary.com • In general, the brighter the surface, the more efficient

radiation will be reflected. The darker the surface, the more
heat is absorbed.
Source UNEP
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Feedback Effects (3) : Methane
Permafrost
Another feedback is the melting of permafrost in boreal

regions, resulting in the release of methane, a potent
greenhouse gas, and CO2 from soil organic matter. Recent
studies in Siberia, North America and elsewhere have
documented the melting of permafrost.
Ecosystems
An important feedback is the release of carbon from

ecosystems due to changing climatic conditions. The
modification of high-carbon ecosystems, such as the
Amazon, due to changes in regional precipitation patterns,
has been predicted from some models, but it has not yet
been observed. Laboratory studies have indicated
accelerated decomposition of soil organic matter in
temperate forests and grasslands due to temperature and
precipitation changes, or the CO2-induced enhancement of
decomposition by mycorrhizae.
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Source: NASA
Feedback Effects (4): The Double Feedback Potential Of Clouds (1a)

Example 2: The cloud cover
• Clouds are made of water vapour, a greenhouse gas
• The warmer the surface of the planet, the more water vapor (therefore clouds) in the atmosphere
• Water vapor is a tricky GHG as it has a simultaneous effect of warming and cooling (It reflects incoming solar radiations
during the day (albedo effect), but also acts as a Green House Gas by re-emitting incoming IR rays from the Earth’s surface.
• Clouds polluted by aerosols from industrial emissions have more numerous and smaller drops, causing the cloud to become
brighter and reflect more of the sun’s radiative energy
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Source: NASA
Feedback Effects (4): The Double Feedback Potential Of Clouds (1b)

Example 2: The cloud cover
• The effect that clouds will have on future climate change is very difficult to predict
• Clouds are one of the strongest yet less predictable feedback mechanisms
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The double cooling and
warming property of clouds and
its variability makes them one of
the most difficult feedback
mechanisms to predict
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Uncertainty On The Melting Of The
Permafrost And Ice
• Some recent studies suggest that large amounts of
methane hydrates stored in the permafrost will be released
in the atmosphere as it melts, which will accelerate the
rate of global warming.
• The melting of the permafrost will also add a significant

amount of water to the oceans, which will contribute to
global sea level rise.
• As the permafrost melts, soils become waterlogged and

unstable. Entire towns built on these type of soils are at
risk. There are also major structures worth billions of
dollars installed on the permafrost, such as pipelines and
electrical lines.
• Recent studies link increased pollution levels with ice

melt. Soot or black carbon darkens the ice and makes it
soak up more heat, accelerating melting rates compared to
reflective snow and ice. Methane comes from sources
including oil and gas and agriculture while ozone is formed
from industrial pollutants
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Ice melting in the arctic. These
ice cascades are not ordinary
Uncertainty On Sea Level Rise/
and very concerning. What this
picture shows is actually ice
Ice Dynamics (1a)
melting and going down into
cavities straight to the bottom • The predictions regarding sea level rise over the next
of the ice shelf. This suggest century remain uncertain to some extent and are likely to
that these huge volumes of ice be underestimated.
are melting within which is not
currently incorporated into the • In its 2007 Fourth Assessment report, the
models for sea level rise. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used new
satellite data to conclude that shrinkage of ice sheets may
contribute more to sea level rise than it had thought as
Source: NASA recently as 2001. The panel concluded that it could not
"provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level
rise" over the next century due to their lack of knowledge
about Earth's ice
• There are 5-6 meters worth of sea level in the Greenland

ice sheet, and 6-7 meters in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
(some recent studies suggest that the East Antarctic is also
melting at alarming rates). Hundreds of millions of people
live within that range of sea level increase, so our inability
to predict what sea level rise is likely over the next century
has substantial human and economic ramifications
Source: NASA
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Ice melting in the arctic. These
ice cascades are not ordinary
Uncertainty On Sea Level Rise/
and very concerning. What this
picture shows is actually ice
Ice Dynamics (1b)
melting and going down into
cavities straight to the bottom • Some recent scientific studies published in the journal
of the ice shelf. This suggest Nature, however, show that even East Antarctica has been
that these huge volumes of ice warming by 0.17°C per decade over the past 50 years
are melting within which is not which is concerning. Antarctica holds enough ice to raise
currently incorporated into the global sea level by 57 m !
models for sea level rise.
Source: NASA
Source: NASA
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Our lack of understanding of ice
dynamics makes predictions of
sea level rise uncertain. It is
however likely that the current
predictions are underestimating
the rise to come
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As indicated in this graphic ,
current observations are already
much worse then those
predicted by the models
At the current rate, the Arctic

will be completely ice free within
the decade
Source: IPCC
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Slowing Down Of The Global Conveyer Belt And The Thermohaline System (1a)
• Most of the weather and climate on the planet is governed by oceanic currents rather than atmospheric circulation
• The thermohaline oceanic circulation is a broad network of oceanic currents which transfers heat around the planet
from the poles to the tropics
• The thermohaline circulation is initiated in the Arctic, where particular conditions produce large amounts of very salty
water
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Slowing Down Of The Global Conveyer Belt And The Thermohaline System (1b)
• The salty water, much denser then the surrounding water, sinks right to the ocean floor, working as a pump mechanism
and initiating the global oceanic conveyor belt
• However, Scientists are becoming more and more concerned that due to global warming, the sea water in the Arctic
peninsula is becoming less and less salty due to the melting of land and sea ice.
• If the water becomes too fresh, this sinking trend may slow down to the point of stopping. If this would happen it would
result in large scale and unprecedented, rapid perturbations of the earth’s climate system
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Ozone And Climate Change (1a)
There are two distinct environmental problems associated with

ozone: ozone depletion in the Starosphere (upper atmosphere)
and pollution from Tropospheric ozone at ground level. Both will
be affected to some extent by climate change:
Stratospheric Ozone:
• While industrial products like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are

largely responsible for current ozone depletion, a recent NASA
www.photolibrary.com study found that by the 2030s climate change may surpass
Depletion of Tropospheric ozone over the chlorofluorocarbons as the main driver of overall ozone loss.
Antarctic
• Ozone thinning can occur when increased emissions of
methane get transformed into water in the stratosphere. At high
altitudes, water vapor can be broken down into molecules that
destroy ozone.
• Climate change from greenhouse gases can also affect ozone

by heating the lower stratosphere where most of the ozone
exists. When the lower stratosphere heats up, chemical reactions
speed up, and ozone gets depleted.
Depletion of air quality from ozone pollution as a
result of increase intensity of photochemical smog
from rising temperature is a growing problem
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Ozone And Climate Change (1b)
Tropospheric Ozone:
• According to a recent scientific study by the Royal Society,

hundreds more people could die because of increasing levels of
ozone at street level. They found that ground levels of ozone, the
pollutant created when sunlight hits a mixture of gases in the air
(Nitrous and Sulfur oxides), has risen by six per cent per decade
since the 1980s.
www.photolibrary.com • Furthermore, tropospheric ozone is known to damage plants,

Depletion of Tropospheric ozone over the reducing plant primary productivity and crop yields5 which will
Antarctic have negative impacts on agricultural systems.
Depletion of air quality from ozone pollution as a
result of increase intensity of photochemical smog
from rising temperature is a growing problem
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This graphic represents temperatures
across Melbourne on a clear and still
night
The temperature is warmer in the

centre of the city where the amount of
constructions and roads is more
dense
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Urbanisation And Climate Change (1a)

•The Addition of GHG into the Atmosphere remains by far the main contributor of
man made climate change.
• However humans are also affecting the climate by modifying the structure of the land through urbanization
• Construction materials (roads, buildings, etc…) absorb much more heat than the natural landmarks (grass, forests, land…)
which in turn results in significant local temperature differences
• As our planet is becoming increasingly more and more populated and urbanized, it is not thoroughly understood what the
impacts of many local changes could have on the overall climate system.
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This graphic represents temperatures
across Melbourne on a clear and still
night
The temperature is warmer in the

centre of the city where the amount of
constructions and roads is more
dense
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Urbanisation And Climate Change (1b)

• This phenomenon is known as the ‘urban heat island effect‘ and is another demonstration of how humans actually have an
impact on the climate
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Land Use And Climate Change
• Before the industrial revolution, much of the earth’s
surface was covered by forests
• However in order to feed a rapidly growing population

and to satisfy demand for various industrial needs and
housing, very significant land surface areas are
completely modified by man
• Broadscale changes in land-use patterns, such as

deforestation, can significantly alter the roughness and
reflectivity of the surface to solar radiation, and hence the
www.photolibrary.com absorbed radiation, evaporation and evapotranspiration.
landscapes are entirely modified by man which has impacts on In the process, changes in regional climate can occur8
the climate system
• Large scale changes in land use also impact the global
climate by enhancing the natural greenhouse effect, are
diverse and very difficult to predict; for example by
reducing the land's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide (e.g.
through deforestation) and by increasing the carbon
emission from the land (e.g. through increased biomass
decay), both of which lead to greater concentrations of
greenhouse gases8
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Global Dimming
• Since the Industrial Revolution, humans are adding
tremendous amounts of particles into the atmosphere (e.g.
traces left from jet planes, industrial dust, aerosols).
• These particles, which are not necessarily GHG in nature

have a cooling effect by blanketing the lower atmosphere.
• The temperature that we are actually experiencing may

therefore be cooled down due to the effect of this artificial
temporary protective layer.
• Scientists are concerned that a suddent shift in the amount of

dimming may result in a rapid increase in surface temperatures.
• Some argue that the dimming of the atmosphere is actually a

good thing and therefore that we should not take actions to
reduce the emissions of pollutants in the air. This is a
missconception that would have severe consequences as it
would make the climate unstable and even more subject to
extremely rapid changes.
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VIII. CLIMATE CHANGE IN SINGAPORE
VIII. Climate Change in Singapore | Page 1 of 26
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With its 2012 Green Plan and
Climate Change strategy,
Singapore is starting to take
much needed climate change
mitigation
and prevention measures.
As an Island Nation our

vulnerability to the effects of
climate change is
considerable when compared to
continental nations.
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How does Singapore fit in the
global picture?
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning Per Person for Top
Ten Countries and World, 2006
Country Emissions Per Person
Tons of Carbon
Qatar 22.4
United Arab Emirates 13.3
Kuwait 10.4
Singapore 9.2
USA 5.5
Canada 5.4
Norway 5.3
Australia 4.5
Kazakhstan 4.1
Saudi Arabia 3.9
World Average 1.3
Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute
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Singapore has amongst the
worlds largest CO2 emissions
per capita
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Singapore CO2 Emissions
• In Singapore, carbon emissions have sharply increased in
the 70’s following industrial development.
• The emissions from liquid petroleum have slowly decreased

in recent years due to a shift from a petroleum based energy
source to natural gas.
• However, the exponential increase of cars on the roads in

Singapore is resulting in a further increase of liquid emissions.
Source CDIAC16
Source MEWR
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Impacts Of Climate Change In
Singapore (1): The Risks (1a)
Singapore will not be spared from the effects of
climate change, the main ones are:
• Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall and tropical

storms
• Higher risk of coastal erosion and flooding as a result of

rising sea level
• Loss of water resources due to a hotter, drier weather

and/or contamination of reservoirs due to saltwater
intrusion
• Risk of food shortages due to increased drought due to

shifting rain patterns and reduction in rainfall
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Singapore (1): The Risks (1b)
Singapore will not be spared from the effects of
climate change, the main ones are:
• Resurgence/increase of tropical diseases including

dengue fever
• Higher rate of reccurrence of the annual haze blanketing

the region since 1997
• Loss of local biodiversity
• Economical impacts on Singapore as a result of global

crisis in the region and worldwide
• Long term safety issues from a rise in environmental

refugees in the region
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Source: MEWR
Singapore Energy sources

• Singapore's energy intensity improved by 15% between 1990 and 2005 due to the adoption of more efficient technologies in
power generation and the more productive use of energy in other sectors
• However, Singapore has still a long way to go in providing a sustainable source of energy. Currently only less than 2 % of the
energy supply is from renewable source.
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KeyCO2 Contributors
(2005) (Kilo tonnes)
Source: MEWR
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The Singapore context
Facts and figures:
• Despite being a very small nation, Singapore has amongst the

world’s largest CO2 emissions per capita (about 9 times
higher than the world average!).
• Singapore has a very high average energy consumption per

capita with 3403 kg oil equivalent.
• In Singapore most of the energy is generated from natural gas

with significant GHG emissions involved (less than 2% is from
renewable energy).
• In Singapore most of the waste is incinerated which is also a

major source of GHG emissions.
• Much of Singapore's economy relies on fossil fuels. Singapore

is home to major refineries and has one of the busiest ports in
the world.
• Singaporeans have built a lifestyle based on the excessive use

of air conditioning, which is a major contributor of high electricity
consumption and associated GHG.
• Singapore has been a signatory to the UN Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 1997.
• Singapore ratified the Kyoto protocol in April 2006

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Impacts Of Climate Change In Singapore
(4): Water Resources
• Singapore has limited fresh water supplies
• Despite predictions of increased rainfall, rising

temperatures will mean more loss through evaporation
• Rising sea level could cause salty intrusions into the water
supplies (both above and below ground) and contaminates
them
• Flooding may become a problem in some areas of the city.

Singapore has however already started to take active
measures to limit such disasters with initiatives such as the
Marina Barrage which among other benefits helps to reduce
flood risks.
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As an island nation, sea level
rise is a major threat to
Singapore
(Picture: Pulau Ubin November

2008)
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Singapore (2): Sea Level Rise
And Coastal Erosion
• Surrounded by sea and almost entirely flat, Singapore is
without doubt vulnerable to the rising sea levels
• A substantial amount of land has been ‘reclaimed’ from

the sea, and these areas are particularly vulnerable to
Source NUS17 rising sea levels
• Singapore highest point is a hill rising 165 meters above

sea level. Most of the areas of commercial and strategic
importance of Singapore - its airport, business district and
its busy container ports, lie less than two meters above
sea level.
• Coastal erosion as a consequence of sea level rise will

become a problem for Singapore
• Recorded past extreme high tide events provide an idea

of the kind of threat that Singapore will have to deal with
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• Much of Singapore’s water
supply relies on reservoirs
(Photo: Lower Peirce Reservoir)
• Salt water intrusion as a result

of sea level rise may threaten
these reservoirs
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Singapore
Vulnerability To Sea
Level Rise
Scenario A: 9 cm; Scenario B:
88 cm; Scenario C: 1m 20;
Scenario D: 7 m
Source NUS17
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Area loss:
4.02 km2 by 2050
8.11 km2 by 2100
Wetland reserve partly flooded
Jurong industrial Changi airport

Island partly flooded partly flooded
Main port
partly flooded
Landfield partly flooded
Source NUS17
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Impacts of Climate
Change in Singapore
(3): increase of
infectious diseases
• One of the serious
consequences of climate
change in Singapore will be a
significant increase in the
number of vector born diseases
• With rising temperatures, more

humidity and more rain the
conditions will become more
conducive for mosquitoes to
develop
• Singapore is already
experiencing a sharp increase
in the number of reported
Dengue Fever cases
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Singapore (3): Increase Of
Infectious Diseases
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Impacts Of Climate Change In Singapore (4): Air Quality

• As temperature rise, the frequency and severity of haze events as a result of more frequent fires in nearby countries is expected to
significantly increase
• Air quality will also be affected through an increase in the severity and frequency of smog events. These are caused by a combination of
increased temperatures andincreased emissions from cars.
• Ozone related deaths and repiratory diseases are expected to significantly increase due to deteriorating air quality.
• Children and the elderly are likely to be most affected bydeteriorating air quality.
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Impacts of Climate Change in
Singapore (5): biodiversity loss
• Singapore is home to numerous species of endemic plants
and animals
• Many of these organisms will be at increased risk of extinction

solely as a result of global warming which will add on to the
already intense pressures from important development and
pollution in Singapore
• In an attempt to protect species at risk, a red list of

endangered species in Singapore has been put in place:
http://www.wildsingapore.com/wildfacts/concepts/redlist.htm
• The overall aim of the Red List is to convey the urgency and
scale of conservation problems to the public and policy makers,
and to motivate the global community to try to reduce species
extinctions.
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Singapore will not be spared
from important biodiversity
losses and changes as a result
of climate change
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• Singapore is home to extensive
mangrove ecosystems, which will
be threatened by rising sea level
and temperatures
• Photo: Sungei Buloh wetland

reserve, an important site with
rich biodiversity, which is a
platform for migratory birds
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Singapore's Economy And
Climate Change
• Singapore will not be spared from the economical
impacts of climate change
• As weather patterns become erratic, world food production

will be affected which will in turn affect the cost of food. As
an island state, Singapore imports most of its goods and is
very vulnerable to variations in world market prices
• For instance If a drought or floods affect countries which

imports food products to Singapore this will significantly and
directly affect the cost of food in Singapore.
• As temperatures rise, natural fresh water supplies will

diminish. The cost of producing fresh water from various
sources will rise (e.g. desalinisation, reverse osmosis,
etc…).
• The cost of efforts to mitigate the harmful effects of sea

level rises and other climate change related impacts (e.g.
biodiversity, control of infectious diseases…) will weigh
heavily on Singapore’s economy
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Singapore National Climate Change
Strategy (1)
• The Singapore National Climate Change Strategy underscores
Singapore’s commitment to do its part in the international effort
to address climate change. The strategy includes plans to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. It also proposes efforts to
better understand Singapore’s vulnerabilities to climate change
and to assess adaptation measures to address the impacts of
climate change
• The strategy identifies improving energy efficiency as

Singapore's key strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions.
• The Singapore government will actively support energy users

Source MEWR in the industry, buildings, households and transport sectors to be
more energy efficient, through regulations to provide consumer
information and deploy appropriate technologies, and incentives
to encourage take-up among individuals and businesses.
• The government will also encourage further research and

development into clean energy.
• Details on various elements of the National Climate Change

Strategy can be obtained from the ministry website:
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/ContentsNCC.aspx?ContI
d=452
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Measures Taken In Singapore To
Minimize The Impacts Of Climate
Change (1)
In many ways, Singapore has already implemented several
measures that are useful for cities across the world to model their
climate change mitigation plans on.
Water Planning:
• In 2008 Singapore opened the Marina Barrage which is a unique

example of water management in urban areas
Source MEWR15
• The barrage, coupled with a state-of-the-art desalination plant
and a sewage treatment plant provide Singapore with a water
sustainable supply.
City in the Garden concept:
• With its concept of a Garden City, Singapore has remarkably

preserved the trees within the city
• Singapore has also dedicated a significant part of its land area for
the preservation of nature reserves and gardens
Green Buildings:
• The Building and Construction Authority has launched its Green

Mark standard which rewards environmentally friendly energy
efficient buildings
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Measures taken in Singapore to
minimise the impacts of Climate
Change (2)
Source: BCA19
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IX. WHAT CAN BE DONE?
SOLUTIONS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE
IX. What can be done? Solutions to fight Climate Change | Page 1 of 39
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Carbon Footprint
In order to successfully fight climate change,
governments, businesses and individuals must
collectively resolve to reduce their carbon footprint
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Where are actions needed?
In order to win the fight against climate change, efforts
must be undertaken in the following areas:
• Develop technologies to remove GHG from the

atmosphere
• Develop technologies which may help to cool the planet

(artificial dimming)
• Prepare to adapt to a changing environment
• Research on the uncertain mechanisms of climate

change (feedback effects, ice dynamic etc…)
• Closely monitor the evolution of climate change impacts
• Educate the population on the risks and contributions of

their activities to climate change, and on how to reduce
their individual ecological footprints.
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What can Individuals do?
• Practice responsible consumerism by purchasing
products which are energy efficient and have a low carbon
footprint.
• Choose energy efficient modes of transportation (public

transport or purchase fuel efficient vehicles such as hybrid
cars).
• Practice an energy efficient life style at home and at

work (e.g. switching off lights in unoccupied rooms, raising
air conditioning temperature to 25°C…).
• Stay informed and spread awareness on climate change

issues
• Get involved by helping, participating in environmental

groupsworking towards mitigating climate change.
• Vote for political leaders who are taking climate change

issues seriously.
• For an evaluation of your carbon footprint and a better

understanding of what can individual achieve please refer
to our lifestyle assessment calculator.
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Climate change is a threat to world peace and stability
and should be taken very seriously
The decisions that we make today will affect not only

ourselves but most importantlythe environment in which
future generations will have to live in
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What can corporations do (1)?
• Corporations have the responsibility to conduct their
business in a sustainable way
• Purchase and produce environment friendly products

which are energy efficient and have a low carbon footprint
• Construct environmentally friendly buildings and office

space which have a low carbon footprint
• Implement environment management systems and

www.photolibrary.com ecofriendly practices within the workforce
• Report environmental impacts to the community (CSR)
• Educate staff on good environmental behavior and on

climate change issues
• Support environmental movements and groups which are

active in the fight against climate change
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Examples of leading reducers corporations
There are now numerous examples across the world of

very successful corporation’s which have achieved
impressive savings by adopting sustainable practices
through Energy/water savings and more generally by
adopting sustainable development models.
NORSKE CANADA reduced emissions 61% on 1990

levels and saved estimated CA$20-30m
IBM reduced emissions 65% on 1990 levels and saved
US$791 million
BRITISH TELECOM reduced energy-related emissions

62% on 1992 levels and saved £119 million (US$200m)
DUPONT reduced greenhouse gas emissions 69% from

1990 levels and saved US$2 billion
BP reduced emissions 18% from 1997 to 2001, saving an

estimated US$650m on a $20m investment
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Examples of top eco-friendly cities
Many cities around the world have started to take the lead
(ahead of governments) in having its corporations shift to a
sustainable business model. The interesting point is that
once a few corporations take the lead, many others follow
in a snowball effect, which ends up making a significant
difference in the city’s environmental impact.
TORONTO reduced emissions by 42% in municipal
facilities between 1990 and 1998 - CA$20-30 million
www.photolibrary.com revenue from landfill methane capture plus CA$17 millions
in savings
PORTLAND reduced per capita emissions 13% with
US$11million corporate energy bill savings since 1991,
$1.5m annual savings to businesses and households
BERLIN reduced city-wide emissions of 15% on 1990
SAN DIEGO 89,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide reduction,
cumulative energy cost savings of $15 million
WOKING has now reduced CO2 emissions by 77% on
1990 levels and saved £5.4 million in municipal energy and
water bills
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What can governments do?
• Political will is a major driver for the fight against climate
change
• Governments around the world must take action and adopt

policies which facilitate the shift from a fossil fuel economy to a
low carbon future.
• Governments must facilitate the implementation of renewable

energy and sustainable transportation modes
• They must create green jobs to make the transition to a

green economy feasible
• Collaborate with other Governments in solving the climate

change crisis. climate change is a global issue that can only be
solved through international collaboration
• Adopt and follow international agreements on mitigating GHG
emissions (Kyoto protocol, agenda 21)
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• Developed countries must help developing countries reduce their carbon emissions by facilitating the transfer of renewable
technologies and practices to these countries
• Simple technologies such as affordable energy efficient stoves and wind turbines can help make a difference if applied on a
large scale
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International Agreements:
The Kyoto Protocol (1a)
• The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A
key feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets
for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for
reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions
• These amount to an average of 5 %t against 1990 levels over

the five-year period 2008-2012.
• Countries have a certain degree of flexibility in how they make

and measure their emissions reductions
• They pursue emissions cuts in a wide range of economic

sectors
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The Kyoto Protocol (1b)
• The Protocol advances the implementation of existing
commitments by all countries
• The EU and its Member States ratified the Kyoto Protocol in

late May 2002
•To date 175 countries in total have ratified the Kyoto protocol,
the latest being Australia in 2007
• In 2008, the USA remains the last developed country that

refuses to ratify the protocol
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The Kyoto Protocol (1b)
• The Protocol advances the implementation of existing
commitments by all countries
• The EU and its Member States ratified the Kyoto Protocol in

late May 2002
•To date 175 countries in total have ratified the Kyoto protocol,
the latest being Australia in 2007
• In 2008, the USA remains the last developed country that

refuses to ratify the protocol
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International Agreements: Beyond Kyoto
• The Kyoto protocol is now in its active phase (2008 to 2012) in
which countries who have ratified the protocol are actively
undertaking measures to significantly reduce their carbon
emissions
• However, governments must start planning beyond Kyoto and

put into place long term plans which will progressively allow a
transition from a Carbon based economy to a sustainable one
• One must understand that the Kyoto targets are mostly

symbolic in having nations all over the world come together for
the cause of fighting climate change. Climate change is a global
matter which requires global collaboration. However, much
stronger measures than those outlined by the Kyoto protocol
are required to be effective. This is why nations must now start
to seriously think at longer perspective and stronger measures.
• Climate talks took place in Poznan in December 2008 to

discuss such post-Kyoto issues
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Shifting from a fossil fuel based
economy to a low carbon future
is imperative if we are to
succeed in fighting climate
change
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Geothermal Energy
• Geothermal energy is the process of using the heat
from the Earth to produce steam and generate
electricity in the process
• Geothermal resources range from shallow ground to

hot water and rock several miles below the Earth's
surface, and even further down to the extremely hot
molten rock called magma. Wells over a mile deep can
be drilled into underground reservoirs to tap steam and
very hot water that can be brought to the surface for
use in a variety of applications.
• At present, geothermal energy is only used in areas

where it is easy to have access to the steam such as in
volcanic active places
• As of 2008, geothermal power supplies less than 1%

of the world's energy
• However, new developments in drilling technologies

will soon enable drilling deeper into the ground and
access to such resources in almost any places around
the world
• Geothermal has the potential to provide unlimited

clean energy for generations to come
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Solar Energy (1): Photovoltaic (1a)
• There are two ways in which solar energy (radiation
from the sun) can be utilised as Energy sources:
1. Photovoltaic Energy: which is the process of

converting solar radiation into electricity through solar
panels
• Photovoltaic production has been doubling every two

years, increasing by an average of 48 % each year since
2002, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy
technology. World solar photovoltaic (PV) market
installations reached a record high of 2.8 gigawatts peak
(GWp) in 2007
• Although the selling price of modules is still too high to

compete with grid electricity in most places, the rapid
production growth is expected to substantially cut down
the price, which will make photovoltaic energy
competitive within a few years.
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Solar Energy (1): Photovoltaic (1b)
• Currently average Sunpower's cells have a conversion
ratio of 23.4 %. However, advances past this efficiency
mark are being innovated and efficiencies of 42% have
been achieved
• New technologies of photovoltaic cells are expected to

hit the market soon: Fine layer cells and dye cells which
will make solar cells much easier to integrate into
buildings
• New research are under way to capture solar energy

directly from space and to transfer it down to earth via
micro waves
• Concentrating solar energy into new generation high

temperature resistant solar cells is also under way and
already experimented in Australia. Such technology has
great potential.
• Solar photovoltaic energy is one of the most promising

renewable energy sources which may well end up
powering cities of the future
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Solar Energy (2): Thermal (1a)

2. Solar thermal energy (STE) is a technology for harnessing solar energy for thermal energy (heat).
• Low temperature collectors are flat plates generally used to heat swimming pools.
• Medium-temperature collectors are also usually flat plates but are used for heating water for residential and commercial use.
• High temperature collectors concentrate sunlight using mirrors or lenses and are generally used for electric power
production. This is different from solar photovoltaics, which convert solar energy directly into electricity. exposure)
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Solar Energy (2): Thermal (1b)

• The principal behind high temperature collectors is to concentrate the heat in order to produce, which powers turbines and
generates electricity.
• This process is quite efficient in countries which have large surface areas and appropriate weather conditions (sun exposure)
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Wind Energy (1a)

• Wind power is the conversion of wind energy into electricity, using wind turbines
• At the end of 2007, the worldwide capacity of wind-powered generators was 94.1 gigawatts. Although wind produces only about 1% of
world-wide electricity use, it is growing rapidly, increasing more than fivefold globally between 2000 and 2007
• Large scale wind farms are typically connected to the local electric power transmission network, with smaller turbines being used to
provide electricity to isolated locations
• Smaller turbines can be used to provide electricity to isolated locations
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Wind Energy (1b)

• Wind energy as a power source is a viable alternative to fossil fuels, as it is plentiful, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and
produces lower greenhouse gas emissions
• New research is underway to capture altitude wind which is more constant and would provide a continuous unlimited supply of clean
energy.
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Hydroelectric Energy
• Hydroelectricity is electricity generated by hydropower,
the production of power through use of the gravitational
force of falling or flowing water. It is the most widely used
form of renewable energy
• Once a hydroelectric complex is constructed, the project

produces no direct waste, and has a considerably
different output level of the greenhouse gas carbon
dioxide (CO2) than fossil fuel powered energy plants
(significant amounts of GHG are release during the
construction when forests are flooded and gas such as
methane emitted during the decay of organic matter)
• Worldwide, hydroelectricity supplied an estimated

715,000 MWe in 2005. This was approximately 19% of
the world's electricity (up from 16% in 2003), and
accounted for over 63% of electricity from renewable
sources.
• Hydroelectric plants however have significant impacts

on biodiversity and are therefore considered my many
environmentalists not to be eco-friendly.
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Nuclear Fusion (1a)
• Nuclear fusion is the process by which multiple like-
charged atomic nuclei join together to form a heavier
nucleus. It is accompanied by the release or absorption of
energy.
• Nuclear fusion occurs naturally in stars. Artificial fusion in

human enterprises has also been achieved, although not
yet completely controlled.
• Fusion, the reaction that produces the sun's energy, is

thought to have enormous potential for future power
generation because fusion plant operation produces no
emissions, fuel sources are potentially abundant, and it
produces relatively little (and short-lived) radioactive
waste (as opposed to nuclear fission which is the nuclear
power currently harnessed).
• High-power reactors such as the ITER (International

Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) are now under
construction in France and other countries.
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Nuclear Fusion (1b)
• Physicists estimate that exploitable fusion reactors might
be operational within 50 years. The main issue remaining
to be resolved concerns the storage and movement of the
very hot plasma within the reactor and to make the
reaction durable (for now the reaction can only be kept
running for about 30 seconds due to the extreme heat
generated).
• Nuclear fusion is a very promising, clean and sustainable

technology which has the potential to power the entire
planet by the end of the century.
• However, for now this technology is not operational. Until

it is, other sustainable alternatives must be considered
until it is improved.
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“Clean” Coal (1)
• This technology involves the removal of a significant part
of the CO2 from the coal through chemical and physical
means before it is combusted. By doing so, there is much
less carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere (up to
80% reduction in emissions).
• The CO2 removed is stored and then injected back into

the Earth’s crust.
• This technology is debatable as it relies on one of the

most polluting fossil fuel energy sources.
• The idea behind such technology is to try to clean as

much as possible the coal burning process which is used
by hundreds of thousands of power plants worldwide,
while more sustainable alternatives are put into place
• This technology should only be used as a temporary

solution, as continuing to rely on fossil fuels is a step in
the wrong direction. In order to fight climate change, we
must completely cease our reliance on fossil fuels and
start relying heavily on sustainable energies instead.
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“Clean” coal: Storage of CO2
in deep underground
geological formations
Source: IPCC
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Oceans Thermal Energy
• There is a lot of potential in the utilization of thermal energy
from the oceans.
• There is an important temperature difference between the

bottom of the deep sea and surface temperatures
• The Earth's oceans are continually heated by the sun, and

cover nearly 70% of the Earth’s surface. This temperature
difference contains a vast amount of solar energy which can
potentially be harnessed for human use
• Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a method of
• If this extraction could be made cost effective on a large generating electricity which uses the temperature difference
scale, it could provide a source of renewable energy that exists between deep and shallow waters to run a heat
needed to deal with energy shortages, and other energy engine. As with any heat engine, the greatest efficiency and
problems. The total energy available is one or two orders power is produced with the largest temperature difference.
of magnitude higher than other ocean energy options such This temperature difference generally increases with
as wave power, but the small magnitude of the decreasing latitude, i.e. near the equator, in the tropics
temperature difference makes energy extraction
comparatively difficult and expensive, due to low thermal
efficiency.
• Earlier OTEC systems had an overall efficiency of only 1

to 3% (the theoretical maximum efficiency lies between 6
and 7%). Current designs under review will operate closer
to the theoretical maximum efficiency.
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Other renewable energy sources
Other sources of renewable energy include:
- Wave energy from the ocean
- Hydroelectric Energy from ocean tides
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Sustainable waste management
•Waste management is an important challenge for the
Cities of the future as well as an important contributor to
climate change
• The treatment of waste in landfills (incineration and

Decomposition) is responsible for emitting greenhouse
gases such as Carbon Dioxide and
Methane
• Improvements must be made in the waste

management sector if we are to succeed in significantly
Source NEA
cutting down Greenhouse gas emissions
In this picture, the Singapore offshore Land fill. Singapore incinerates
most of its waste which is an efficient way of reducing the size. However, Technologies that must be looked into include
this process emits significant amounts of Greenhouse gases
- Plasma incineration of waste: The extreme heat
generated allows to breakdown molecules and generate
energy in the process
- Waste to energy: Produce energy from the

decomposition or burning of waste
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Sustainable transport
•Current transportation is largely based on fossil fuels
•The development of more sustainable modes

of transportation is essential to reducing GHG emissions
• Alternative fossil fuels such as diesel and natural gas still produce
very significant GHG emissions and should only be seen as
temporary transition solutions while much cleaner technologies are
developed and improved
• The shift from fossil fuel based kerosene to biofuels is slowly on

its way in the air travel industry
Durham University
• Cities should rethink their transportation routes and especially
integrate effective and strategically spread walking and cycling
Sustainable modes of transport tracks to allow easy and convenient displacement within the city.
Electric vehicles Such installations would also ease the development of new modes
of transportations based on human energy.
Fuel cell vehicles (Hydrogen)
Solar vehicles • Entire models of lifestyle and habits needs to be seriously

rethought. Hundreds of millions of people travel each day to get to
Sustainable public mass transportation
and from their workplaces. Is this really necessary? With the
Water powered vehicles technology available today in most cases the work can be done
from home through simple communication media
Compressed air vehicles (videoconferencing, phone, fax, emails etc…). If we are to
Human powered vehicles (bicycles etc….) significantly reduce carbon emissions such habits that we have
considered granted for centuries must be rethought. The same
goes for business travel, which is in most cases not necessary
considering the available technology.
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Biofuel
• Biofuel is beneficial in cutting down carbon emissions
because the carbon emitted has been removed from the
environment in present times, as opposed to fossil fuels
which release passed long time stored carbon into the
atmosphere (Therefore adding to the present GHG
concentrations).
• In order for biofuel to be a sustainable alternative to

fossil fuels a number of important issues must be solved:
• Currently biofuels are extracted from land plantations

(e.g. corn, soya, etc.) which uses large tracts of land,
encroaching on land used to grow food crops. competing
with food crops
• In addition, crops for biofuel is a threat to land

biodiversity if it is exploited on a global scale
• Utilising biofuel from aquatic origin appears to be a much

more reliable source
• Another disadvantage of biofuel is that it still produces

toxic emissions such as nitrous oxide, which causes air
quality to deteriorate and generates health problems
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Sustainable Buildings
• Buildings are a significant contributor to global GHG
emissions
• Green Building is the practice of increasing the efficiency

with which buildings use resources: energy, water, and
materials while reducing building impacts on human health
and the environment during the building's lifecycle,
through better siting, design, construction, operation,
maintenance, and removal
• Effective green building can lead to:
1) reduced operating costs by increasing productivity and

using less energy and water
2) improved public and occupant health due to improved
indoor air quality, and
3) reduced environmental impacts by, for example,
lessening storm water runoff and the heat island
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Management Of Water
Resources (1a)
• Only a few cities are already starting to adapt and plan for
the long term.
• Areas that need to be looked into include supply and

availability of fresh water; concerns over contamination of
fresh water supplies due to rising sea level; coastal
protection against sea level rise and technologies to
Source: MEWR provide fresh water at minimum cost.
Singapore marina barrage
• The newly finished Marina Barrage in Singapore is a good
example of how technological solutions can help nations to
adapt to climate change.
• The principle behind it is simple: the barrage prevents the

fresh water from escaping to the sea and the sea water
from getting in through a combination of rotating gates and
powerful pumps. Such device also acts as a flood
prevention system.
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Management Of Water
Resources (1b)
• The most important element of such a system is that
tremendous amounts of fresh running water are lost
throughout the world. Collecting this water would allow
large reservoir to be created.
• However such system do have serious ecological

consequences and could be disastrous for biodiversity if
Source: MEWR applied on a large scale. This issue must be carefully taken
Singapore marina barrage into account.
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Reforestation And Conservation (1a)
There are two necessary topics which need immediate
attention and action:
- Stopping deforestation across the world (especially in key

hot spots areas such as Brazil, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia,
Malaysia and New Caledonia)
- Planting trees on a large scale. Costa Rica has already

taken the lead in this field with its massive reforestation
programme. In 2008 about 5 million trees were planted and 7
million are targeted for 2009. Such initiatives must be followed
by other larger countries if they are to be effective on a global
level
• However, there is no point in reforesting if on the other hand

forests continue to deplete at alarming rates. It is essential that
actions are taken to address this devastating problem both for
climate change and biodiversity issues
• A few projects are underway to develop new technologies

that would allow trees to be planted fast and effectively on a
large scale, including aerial reforestation
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Reforestation And Conservation (1b)
• Forest are crucial for the well being of this planet. They help
to purify the atmosphere from pollutants and capture large
quantities of carbon dioxide. They are also an important
source of oxygen (through the process of photosynthesis).
Forests hold some of the richest ecosystems on the planet.
Preservation of the few remaining primary forests is a must.
Once a forest is destroyed so is the very complex ecosystems
within it that took hundreds of millions of years to settle.
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Earth Engineering (1a)
•Earth engineering is a new, emerging field which aims to
mitigate the worst-case outcomes of climate change
• Earth engineering looks into the adoption of drastic

technologies which aim to rapidly alter or modify the climate
system
•These are projects which have the potential to affect the

entire planet.
Such projects include:
- Covering ice caps with a protective layer which could

significantly delay the melting of polar ice
- Technological capture of atmospheric CO2 carbon
sequestration
- Modifying the worlds oceanic currents
- Capturing altitude high velocity winds
- Reflecting the sun rays with giant mirrors in space
- Constantly injecting large amounts of aerosols into the lower
atmosphere in order to create a cooling effect (dimming)
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Earth Engineering (1b)
• However, many of these projects are economically
unrealistic and would cost trillions of dollars.
• Many of such projects are under-researched, and would

also have unwanted side effects on ecosystems.
• However, if the situation gets catastrophic it is good to have

a few options available to rapidly deal with the problem and
assure human and the survival of other species.
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X. MISUNDERSTANDINGS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
X. Misunderstandings of Climate Change | Page 1 of 21
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Common Misconceptions About
Climate Change
“If we look at past records, we can see that our
climate has been constantly changing over time,
therefore what we observe today is not alarming”
Indeed our climate has been changing in the geological

history of our planet but never in recorded history have we
seen such a rapid shift in GHG concentrations and
surface temperatures. It is also important to note that
previous sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions have
resulted in massive extinctions of species which, as a
species, we should be more concerned about.
“The temperature has only increased by three-

quarters of a degree Celsius in the last century, which
is not alarming”
This is actually a very large and sudden increase in

temperature over such a small period of time. If the
climate continues to warm at the present rate (which is
predicted to increase), we will undoubtedly face
unprecedented disruptions worldwide by the end of the
century
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Common Misconceptions About
Climate Change
“The global sea level has already increased by a few
centimeters over the past century which has not
caused major troubles so far, why would a few more
centimeters or even meters worry us?”
The sea level rise over the past century has been
consistently increasing and is showing signs of
significantly accelerating. This is a great concern to global
security as 80% of our cities and world population is on
the coast lines. A sea level rise of even half a meter will
cause major troubles worldwide and will displace millions
of people. We have seen this happen when a cyclone or a
local flood temporally displaces a few thousands
(sometime millions) of people. Now imagine what will
happen when this will occur on a global scale and
permanently! Shouldn’t we be more concerned?
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Common misconceptions about
Climate Change
“Dealing with Climate Change will be too costly for nations
economies, so we cannot do anything about it”
All economist who have seriously analyzed the question come to

the same conclusion that the cost of doing nothing in terms of
economic and social impacts will far exceed the cost of mitigation
measures. The Stern report is a comprehensive analysis on the
economics of climate change and provides guidelines to tackle
the problem before it is too late and too costly.
“Water is abundant on this planet, Climate Change will never

be able to deplete our water supplies!”
It is true that we live on a Planet which is 75% water; it is even

called “the blue Planet”. However, most of the water is stored in
oceans and is in a salty form not suitable for human consumption.
Fresh water supplies are mostly stored in lakes and underground
supplies. However, most of these supplies are already starting to
diminish very fast. Climate change will have different impacts in
different parts of the world, some parts will drastically become
drier while others will experience much more rain (which means
more runoff). Both will lead to a loss of available fresh water
storage. While rich countries will be able to pay for expensive
water treatment plants (desalinisation, ozonation…), poorer
countries will be severely affected by droughts and depletion of
fresh water supplies which could lead to great instabilities.
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Climate Change
“It is still not well established whether or not current
observed Global Warming is due to human activity or part of
Earths natural variability”
This is not true. The fact that natural variability could explain
today's global warming as been ruled out. All known possible
causes that have caused the climate to shift in the past cannot
explain today's tendency. Powerful computer simulations have
been run to support such statements. Today's global warming can
only be accounted for when GHG emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels since the industrial revolution are taken into account.
There is no more doubt that today's climate change is due to
human influence.
“The long term climate change records suggest that we are

on the verge of an ice age so it will offset current global
warming”
Yes, it is true that it is likely that we are on the verge of an ice

age, However, one must understand that we are here talking in
terms of geological time frame. Imminent in geological terms
means within the next 100,000 years. Human induced global
warming is however a present threat that our generation and the
ones to come in the next centuries will have to deal with.
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Climate Change
“Climate change doesn’t concern our generation. Future
generations will have to deal with it. Why bother, it won’t
happen during our life time!”
This statement is wrong for two reasons. First, climate change is

happening at present and noticeable changes are beginning to
surface. Within, decades serious impacts will start to be felt. Not
doing anything about it and giving the responsibility to future
generations is an egoistic approach. Secondly, it will be too late
for future generations to tackle the source of the problem, their
only alternative will be adaptation. Our generation is the one that
must do something about climate change while the problem can
still be solved.
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Common misconceptions about Climate Change:

“Global warming will affect biodiversity but shouldn’t affect us humans”
Such statements are wrong. First climate change will affect human civilizations very significantly in a number of ways which are
highlighted in the impacts sections of this booklet. Secondly, the human species are highly dependant on the survival of other species
which affect our health and food supplies. A collapse in ecosystems and biodiversity will be a great threat for human survival. There is
also a lot to be lost in terms of knowledge. Species which have evolved over hundreds of millions of years are marvels of adaptation to
specific environments and we have a lot to learn from them.
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Common misconceptions about Climate Change:

“Global warming will affect biodiversity but shouldn’t affect us humans”
Maybe for our own survival! Most of our medicines come from plants and animals. Losing biodiversity will also mean the loss of molecules
which could hold remedies for a variety of diseases such as cancer, AIDS and other life threatening diseases… It is highly unlikely that
humans would be able to artificially synthesize such complex molecules without studies and samples from real organisms. Biodiversity is
of great value to us humans and should be preserved at all costs. One must remember that extinction of species cannot be reversed and
is forever!
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Climate Change
“Our Planet can take whatever we do to it. Earth will
absorb
the excess carbon dioxide that we put into the
atmosphere, so we do not need to worry about it! “
It is true that the earth has a certain buffering capacity. For

instance, the oceans have been absorbing much of the
excess carbon dioxide that we have emitted into the
atmosphere since the industrial revolution. However, there
is a downside to it. By absorbing excess CO2 the oceans
are turning acidic which is starting to have serious impacts
on marine life and the well being of our oceans. It is
estimated that within half a century the capacity of
ecosystems to uptake CO2 will be exceeded which will
even worsen the rate of warming. Earth is a fragile planet
and our actions have severe and irreversible impacts on
its environment. If we keep on pushing ecosystems to the
limits they will end up collapsing along with our food
supplies and complex interactions which makes this
planet hospitable to us humans
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Climate Change
“Governments are taking care of the problem, so as a
corporate entity or as an individual I do not need to
do anything. Even if I do something at the individual
level it will not change anything!”
This is a wrong approach. First, governments are doing

very little to seriously tackle the problem at present. Much
stronger measures are required and most importantly a
mutual action by world nations is still needed in order to
change things. Secondly, corporations and individuals play
a very important role in emitting GHG. Small contributions,
if applied on a large scale will make a significant
difference. The more individuals are involved the more the
message for action will spread and be widely adapted like
a snowball effect. Corporations and individuals must not
wait for governments to implement regulations but take
matters into their own hands.
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•There is not a single day
without Climate Change related
issues in the press
• Evidence of a rapidly changing

planet is all around, one has just
to make the connection
• There are very few people

(with credible academic
backgrounds) who argue that
present climate change is not
caused by human activity. The
vast majority of leading
scientists from various
disciplines all over the world
have no more doubt about
this…as concluded in the recent
IPCC report compiling the
works of over 2500 scientists.
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Climate Change
“Fighting climate change by adopting clean
technologies and practices is too expensive. It is not
achievable!”
This is not true. At present the experience shows that

installation of sustainable energies and practices makes a
lot of sense in terms of economical profit and long term
investment. For instance, building a sustainable building
with low emissions might cost about 3-4% more, but the
return period is only about 4-5 years. Savings on energy
bills will allow the developer to save money in the long
term. The same principle applies at all levels (including
individuals and government): the extra cost of initial
investment is annulled by long term benefits, not to forget
the benefit of reducing GHG emissions.
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Climate Change
“Global Warming! Great, I live in a cold country at
high latitude so that means our winters will be less
cold and shorter! “
For someone who doesn’t like the cold weather, indeed

global warming might sound like a pleasant idea.
Unfortunately, benefits from global warming will be far
exceeded by negative effects. One thing that we are sure
of is that as the climate will warm it will also become more
uncertain and erratic. Extreme events such as ice storms,
heavy snow fall, rains, floods and so on will be more
frequent. This and other impacts will create great
instabilities worldwide for societies and nations
economies. For the past centuries we have lived in a
climate relatively stable which may soon change due to
climate change.
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Climate Change
“I find the predictions about Climate Change a bit
confusing and inconsistent. Most people are talking
about a Global Warming but some recent movies and
documentaries suggest a Global rapid cooling!”
Those people may be referring, among others, to the

movie “The Day after Tomorrow“ suggesting an extremely
rapid shift from a warm world to an ice age. This movie
despite being fictional in the rapidity at which such event
could occur is based on real scientific facts. Most of our
climate is governed by oceanic currents which transport
heat from the poles to the equator. There is scientific
evidence that suggest that if the planet continues to warm
up at the poles, the variation in salinity in the arctic as a
consequence of ice melt will result in a slowing down of
the oceanic currents which are initiated in this area
through normally very salty waters. The fear is that if this
mechanisms, acting as a giant pump, slows down to the
point of stopping it will indeed result in global and rapid
perturbation of the Climate System in very short periods of
time (decades to a century). This is not fiction, but a
possible scenario. Scientist monitoring the phenomenon
are noticing a slowdown of the oceanic circulation but the
situation seems to remain stable at present. How long are
we willing to gamble?
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Climate Change
“There are too many uncertainties in the predictions
of Climate Change, why should we take it seriously?”
It is true that there are many uncertainties in the

predictions on how our climate will react to change.
However, there are also many aspects of the climate
system which we do know for sure, based on past and
present observations and our general understanding of
the physical principals driving the climate on earth. There
are no doubts that the predictions stated will occur; what
we do not know is the exact extent and severity of
occurrence. In many instances predictions have been
made within a range which they are most likely to occur in.
However, for many predictions there is great fear that they
are actually underestimating the threat in many aspects as
suggested by several new reports from leading science
organizations. In all cases ignoring the threat is not an
acceptable option; in the fear that it will occur preventive
measures and preparation is an ethical and moral
obligation.
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Climate Change
“In the past we have been able to find a solution to

resolve severe environmental problems such as the
Ozone hole, when time comes critical we will find
something to save the day!”
It is true that the ozone crisis has partly been resolved by

banning certain types of molecules in products. However,
first it is still an ongoing problem secondly there is not one
simple solution to tackle climate change and the more we
wait, the more difficult it will be to fix the problem (we
might even pass the point of no return within the century if
GHG concentration pass 650 ppm). Tackling climate
change requires immediate action and global
collaboration.
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Climate Change
“Extreme weather events have been occurring for
ever, impacts of climate change on the weather will
not bring anything new. Therefore there is nothing to
fear”
Climate change is expected to make our weather more

unpredictable and the occurrence of extreme events such
as heavy rain, droughts, tropical storms are expected to
increase significantly. The severity of these events is also
expected to increase. Stronger and more frequent events
will put a lot of pressure on societies and numerous lives
will be at risk. Such events will also create major
economical and social instabilities by displacing millions of
people as weather refugees. There is a lot to worry about
as our civilizations are highly vulnerable to weather
extremes.
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Climate Change
“I live in Singapore, and for now I don’t really see
strong evidence around me that indicate that we are
in trouble. Climate change is happening overseas and
does not concern us”
Such argument is wrong. First even in places like

Singapore impacts of change are starting to be felt and
will worsen in the decades to come (e.g. sea level rise,
economical difficulties). One must understand that climate
change is a global problem and that no one will be spared.
We live in a global planet in which what happens in one
part of the world has direct repercussions in other parts of
the world as well (e.g. food prices). If one country
becomes unstable due to catastrophic water shortages or
loss of food supplies this will create tensions between
neighbouring nations. If a country loses land area and is
affected by natural disasters to the extent that they can no
longer sustain themselves, refugees will have to go
somewhere! There is simply no alternative to solving the
climate crisis then global collaboration in solving a
planetary emergency. Everyone must start doing their part
at the individual, corporate and governmental levels.
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Climate Change
“All predictions on future climate change are based
on computer models. I don’t think I can trust
computers!”
In the early days a lot of data was collected and analyzed

by hand which enabled early scientists such as Roger
Revelle to make predictions on the probable evolution of
our climate. We have gone a long way since then and
extremely powerful computers now enable scientists to
run simulations that would take centuries to do by hand.
These simulations are simply a representation of our
climate system based on the knowledge that we have of it.
They follow the same rules of physics as the real world
and therefore the predictions give a good representation
of what is likely to happen over time. Similar models are
put to the test everyday in meteorological predictions.
Computers are just a tool to run simulations. Strong
scientific understanding and knowledge is behind the
models.
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Climate Change
“Even if we take active actions to tackle Climate
Change, the climate will still continue to warm up. So
why should we do anything about it anyway?”
It is true that due to the life time of GHG in the

atmosphere and the inertia of the climate system, no
matter what we do temperatures will continue to rise at a
rate of a at least 0.1°C per decade. However, doing
nothing would be a terrible mistake as there is still time to
limit the damages. There is still time to stabilize the GHG
in the atmosphere to acceptable levels, however time is
running out!
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Climate Change
“Fossil fuels is a sustainable resource there are still
reserves for centuries and there is no reasons to stop
exploiting it”
This is wrong. First burning fossil fuels at the current

rates is probably the most inefficient way of utilizing the
resource (e.g. making of plastics). Secondly fossil fuels
have originated from the decay of organic matter over
millions of years and the supplies are rapidly running out.
The global reserves of petroleum will be utilized within 30
years. Coal and natural gas have however supplies for
probably another century. One thing for sure is that fossil
fuel is not a renewable resource and it is not sustainable
as, in the process of burning it, we are releasing carbon
into the atmosphere which has been stored in the Earth
crust for millions of years. It is now established that this is
by far the main cause of present global warming and that
if we continue to do so at the current rate, the future of our
climate and environment as we know it today is heading
towards catastrophic scenarios.
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Climate Change definitions (1a):

Albedo
The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or
object, often expressed as a percentage. Snow covered
surfaces have a high albedo; the albedo of soils ranges
from high to low; vegetation covered surfaces and oceans
have a low albedo. The earth’s albedo varies mainly
through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area and land
cover changes.
Climate projection
A projection of the response of the climate system
to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse
gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often
based upon simulations by climate models. Climate
projections are distinguished from climate predictions in
order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon
the emission/ concentration/ radiative forcing scenario
used, which are based on assumptions, concerning, e.g.,
future socio-economic and technological developments,
that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject
to substantial uncertainty
Annex | Page 1 of 21
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Climate Change definitions (1b):

Climate system
The climate system is the highly complex system
consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface and the
biosphere, and the interactions between them. The
climate system evolves in time under the influence of its
own internal dynamics and because of external forcings,
such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations and human-
induced forcings such as the changing composition of the
atmosphere and land-use change.
Climate variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean
state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the
occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all
temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual
weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal
processes within the climate system (internal variability),
or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing
(external variability).
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Climate Change definitions (1c):

Emission scenario
A plausible representation of the future development of
emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively
active (e.g. greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a
coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about
driving forces (such as demographic and socio-economic
development, technological change) and their key
relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from
emission scenarios, are used as input into a climate model
to compute climate projections
Energy balance
Averaged over the globe and over longer time periods, the
energy budget of the climate system must be in balance.
Because the climate system derives all its energy from the
sun, this balance implies that, globally, the amount of
incoming solar radiation must on average be equal to the
sum of the outgoing reflected solar radiation and the
outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the climate system. A
perturbation of this global radiation balance, be it human
induced or natural, is called radiative forcing
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Climate Change definitions (1d):

Extreme weather event
An extreme weather event is an event that is rare within its
statistical reference distribution at a particular place.
Definitions of ‘rare’ vary, but an extreme weather event
would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th
percentile. By definition,
the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may
vary from place to place. An extreme climate event is an
average of a number of weather events over a certain
period of time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g.
rainfall over a season).
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Climate Change definitions (2a):
Global surface temperature
The global surface temperature is the area-weighted
global average of (i) the sea-surface temperature over the
oceans (i.e. the subsurface bulk temperature in the first few
meters of the ocean), and (ii) the surface-air temperature
over land at 1.5 m above the ground
Global Warming Potential (GWP)

An index, describing the radiative characteristics of well
mixed greenhouse gases, that represents the combined
effect of the differing times these gases remain in the
atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing
outgoing infrared radiation. This index approximates the
time-integrated warming effect of a unit mass of a given
greenhouse gas in today’s atmosphere, relative to that of
carbon dioxide.
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Climate Change definitions (2b):
Infrared radiation
Radiation emitted by the earth’s surface, the atmosphere
and the clouds. It is also known as terrestrial or long wave
radiation. Infrared radiation has a distinctive range of
wavelengths (‘spectrum’) longer than the wavelength of the
red colour in the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum
of infrared radiation is practically distinct from that of solar
or short wave radiation because of the difference in
temperature between the sun and the earth-atmosphere
system.
Land-use change
A change in the use or management of land by humans,
which may lead to a change in land cover. Land cover and
land-use change may have an impact on the albedo,
evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse
gases, or other properties of the climate system and may
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Climate Change definitions (2c):

Milankovitch cycles
Milankovich cycles are cycles in the earth's orbit that
influence the amount of solar radiation striking different
parts of the earth at different times of year. They are named
after a Serbian mathematician, Milutin Milankovitch, who
explained how these orbital cycles cause the advance and
retreat of the polar ice caps
Ocean conveyor belt

The theoretical route by which water circulates around the
entire global ocean, driven by wind and the thermohaline
circulation
Radiative forcing
Radiative forcing is the change in the net vertical irradiance
(expressed in Watts per square metre: Wm-2) at the
tropopause due to an internal change or a change in the
external forcing of the climate system, such as, for
example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide
or the output of the sun. Usually radiative forcing is
computed after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to
readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with all tropospheric
properties held fixed at their unperturbed values. Radiative
forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric
temperature is accounted for
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Climate Change definitions (2d):

Sink
Any process, activity or mechanism which removes
a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a
greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere.
Solar radiation
Radiation emitted by the sun. It is also referred to as short
wave radiation. Solar radiation has a distinctive range of
wavelengths (spectrum) determined by the temperature of
the sun. See: Infrared radiation.
Thermal expansion
In connection with sea level, this refers to the increase in
volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming
water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the
ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level
Thermohaline circulation
Large-scale density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused
by differences in temperature and salinity. In the North
Atlantic the thermohaline circulation consists of warm
surface water flowing northward and cold deep water
flowing southward, resulting in a net poleward transport of
heat. The surface water sinks in highly restricted sinking
regions located in high latitudes
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Acronyms and abbreviations (1a)
CF4 perfluoromethane
CFC Chlorofluorocarbons
CFC-11 trichlorofluoromethane
CH4 methane
CO2 carbon dioxide
ENSO El Niño - Southern Oscillation
FCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
GCM General Circulation Model
GCOS Global Climate Observing System
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GSN GCOS Surface Network
GtC Gigatonnes of Carbon
HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbons
HFC hydrofluorocarbons
ICSU International Council for Science
IEA International Energy Agency
IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
MSLP Mean sea-level pressure
N2O nitrous oxide
NAO North Atlantic Oscillation
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development
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Acronyms and abbreviations (1b)
OECD Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development
SOI Southern Oscillation Index
SST Sea-surface temperature
UN United Nations
UNCED United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development
UNEP United Nations Environment
Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
WCP World Climate Programme
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WSSD World Summit on Sustainable
Development
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Climate Change Quotes
"Scientific evidence for warming of the Climate System is
unequivocal." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
"There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate

change, if we take strong action now." Sir Nicholas Stern
“The debate is over! There's no longer any debate in the

scientific community about this. But the political systems
around the world have held this at arm's length because
it's an inconvenient truth” Al Gore
"We are in an extremely precarious and urgent situation

that compels immediate action" Prof. David Karoly
"For my generation, coming of age at the height of the

Cold War, fear of nuclear winter seemed the leading
existential threat on the horizon. But the danger posed by
war to all humanity—and to our planet—is at least
matched by climate change." Ban Ki-moon
“Ignoring climate change will be the most costly of all

possible choices, for us and our children”
Peter Ewins
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“There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest
problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has
reached the level of a state of emergency” Prof David de
Kretser
“We are playing Russian roulette with features of the

planet's atmosphere that will profoundly impact
generations to come. How long are we willing to gamble?”
David Suzuki
"First, I worry about climate change. It's the only thing

that I believe has the power to fundamentally end the
march of civilization as we know it, and make a lot of the
other efforts that we're making irrelevant and impossible."
Bill Clinton
“The choice to 'do nothing' in response to the mounting

evidence is actually a choice to continue and even
accelerate the reckless environmental destruction that is
creating the catastrophe at hand” Albert Arnold Gore
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“We need to push ourselves to make as many reductions
as possible in our own energy use first…and that takes
time. But we must do this quickly… the climate will not
wait for us.”Rupert Murdoch
I want to testify today about what I believe is a planetary

emergency - a crisis that threatens the survival of our
civilization and the habitability of the Earth” Al Gore
“Global warming is too serious for the world any longer to

ignore its danger or split into opposing factions on it” Tony
Blair
"The Greenland ice sheet is likely to be eliminated [within

50 years] unless much more substantial reductions in
emissions are made than those envisaged [and will]
probably be irreversible, this side of a new ice age."
Jonathan Gregory, climatologist
"Climate change is the most severe problem that we are

facing today, more serious even than the threat of
terrorism." - David King, UK government chief
scientific adviser
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"The absolutely best case scenario - which in my opinion
is unrealistic - with the minimum expected climate
change... we end up with an estimate of 9% [of all
species] facing extinction." Chris Thomas, ecologist at
the University of Leeds
“The warnings about global warming have been extremely

clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis.
It is deepening. We are entering a period of
consequences” Al Gore
Of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from

75 studies, that show significant change in many physical
and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent
with the direction of change expected as a response to
warming..." IPCC
"Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that

are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and
magnitude of the climate change. " IPCC
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References 1
1. Climate institute http://www.climate.org/topics/climate-change/index.html
2. Environment Canada http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=en&n=6ee576be-1
3. Earth guide http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/diagrams/greenhouse/
4. NASA http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/
5. US EPA climate change http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/index.html
6. IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/
7. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html
8. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/index_global.shtml
9. National snow and ice data center (NSIDC) http://nsidc.org/seaice/environment/global_climate.html
10. NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html
11. UNEP http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh
12. UNFCCCC http://unfccc.int/2860.php
13. IUCN International Union for conservation of Nature: http://www.iucn.org/news_events/events/congress/index.cfm
14. ClimateQuest http://www.climatequest.org/?switch_language=en
15. Singapore Ministry of the environment and water resources (MEWR): National Climate Change Strategy
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/ContentsNCC.aspx?ContId=452
16. CDIAC: Carbon Dioxide Analysis Information Center. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/sin.html
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References 2
17. Mr. Reuben Li , Luo Guo Ann and Chen Dewen. National University of Singapore (NUS), department of Geography. sea level simulations.
18. Universe review. http://universe-review.ca/F09-earth.htm
19. BCA Singapore Building and Construction Authority
20. Conservation International http://www.conservation.org/Pages/default.aspx
21. WHO World Health Organization
22. Munich Re
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Biography 1
• Alley, R. , T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, P. Friedlingstein, J. Gregory, G. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V.
Kattsov, U. Lohmann, M. Manning, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, D. Qin, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, S. Solomon, R.
Somerville, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, R.J. Stouffer, P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and D. Wratt (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis - summary for policy
makers - IPCC WGI fourth assessment report. Geneva, Switzerland, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 21.
• Footitt, A., M. McKenzie, P. Kristensen, A. Leipprand, T. Dworak, R. Wilby, J. Huntington, J. van Minnen, R. Swart, A.Jol and M.M. Hedger (2007). Climate change and
water adaptation issues (EEA technical report) . Copenhagen (Denmark), European Environment Agency: 114.
• McGranahan, G., D. Balk and B. Anderson (2007). "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones."
Environment & Urbanization 19(1): 17-37.
• Alcamo, J., M. Florke and M. Marker (2007). "Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes." Hydrological
Sciences Journal 52(2): 247-275. 2007
• Brumbelow, K. and A. Georgakakos (2007). "Consideration of climate variability and change in agricultural water resources planning." Journal of Water Resources
Planning & Management 133(3): 275-285.
• Schellnhuber, H. J., W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe, Ed. (2006). Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University
Press.
• Stern, N. (2006). Stern review: the economics of climate change. London, Cabinet Office - HM Treasury (UK): 575.
• Hare, B. (2006). Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems.
Avoiding dangerous climate change. H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press: 177-185.
• Thompson, L.G. , E.M. Thompson, H. Brecher, M. Davis, B. Leon, D. Les, P.N. Lin, T. Mashiotta and K. Mountain (2006). "Abrupt tropical climate change: past and
present." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103(28): 10536-10543.
• Leipprand, A. and D. Gerten (2006). "Global effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 content on evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff under potential natural
vegetation." Hydrological Sciences Journal 51(1): 171-185.
• Pearce, F. (2005). "Cities may be abandoned as salt water invades." New Scientist 186(2495): 9-9.
• Alley, R. B. , P. U. Clark, P. Huybrechts and I. Joughin (2005). "Ice-sheet and sea-level changes." Science 310(5747): 456-461
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Biography 2
• Barnett, T.P. , J.C. Adam and D.P. Lettenmaier (2005). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions." Nature 438(7066):
303-309.
• Hay, J.E. and N. Mimura (2005). "Sea-level rise: implications for water resources management." Earth and Environmental Sciences 10(4): 717-737.
• Hambrey, M.J. and A. Jurg (2004). Glaciers. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press.
• Gregory, J. M., P. Huybrechts and S.C.B. Raper (2004). "Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet." Nature 428: 616.
• Hitz, S. and J. Smith (2004). "Estimating global impacts from climate change." Global Environmental Change 14(3): 201-218
• Zhang, K. , B.C. Douglas and S.P. Leatherman (2004). "Global warming and coastal erosion." Climatic Change 64(1-2): 41-58
• Barnett, J. (2003). "Security and climate change." Global Environmental Change 13(1): 7-17.
• Karl, T.R. and K.E. Trenberth (2003). "Modern global climate change." Science 302(5651): 1719-1723.
• Lambeck, K., T. M. Esat and E.-K. Potter (2002). "Links between climate and sea levels for the past three million years." Nature 419: 199 - 206.
• Beeton, A. M. (2002). "Large freshwater lakes: present state, trends, and future." Environmental Conservation 29(1): 21-38.
• Lal, M., H. Harasawa and K. Takahashi (2002). "Future climate change and its impacts over small island states." Climate Research 19(3): 179-192.
• Hulme, M. and D. Viner (1998). "A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics." Climatic Change 39(2): 145-176
• Gregory, J. M. and J. Oerlemans (1998). "Simulated future sea level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes."
Nature 391: 474-476.
•Pahl-Wostl, C. (2007). "Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change." Water Resources Management 21(1): 49-62.
•Alcamo, J., M. Florke and M. Marker (2007). "Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes." Hydrological
Sciences Journal 52(2): 247-275.
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www.biodiversity.sg
Biography 3
• Halsnaes, K. and J. Verhagen (2007). "Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation - conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing
countries." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change online.
• Brinkuis, H. , S. Schouten, M. E. Collinson, A. Sluijs, J. S. S. Damste, G. R. Dickens, M. Huber, T. M. Cronin, J. Onodera, K. Takahashi, J. P. Bujak, R. Stein, J. van
der Burg and J. S. Eldrett (2006). "Episodic fresh surface waters in the Eocene Arctic Ocean." Nature 441(7093): 606.
• Schellnhuber, H. J., W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe, Ed. (2006). Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University
Press.
• Oki, T. and S. Kanae (2006). "Global hydrological cycles and world water resources." Science 313(5790): 1068-1072.
• Sauerborn, R. and L.R. Valerie, Ed. (2007). Global environmental change and infectious diseases: impacts and adaptation strategies, Springer.
• Milly, P.C.D. (2007). Global warming and water availability: the "big picture". 21st Conference on Hydrology - The 87th American Meteorlogical Society (AMS) Annual
Meeting. San Antonio, TX, American Meteorlogical Society.
• Hare, B. (2006). Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems.
Avoiding dangerous climate change. H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press: 177-185.
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Acknowledgment
Author: Sylvain Richer de Forges
Images are courtesy of:
- Photolibrary (www.photolibrary.com)
- Sylvain Richer de Forges
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About the Author:
Sylvain Richer de Forges is a business strategist and a corporate sustainability specialist.
Over the last years he has been mostly working in Asia with public and private sectors.
He is a writer of numerous articles and the author of two published books on issues
surrounding sustainable development and corporate change strategies.
Sylvain holds a diploma in Physics from France, a Bachelor’s degree in Environmental

Science from La Trobe University (Australia) and a Master’s in Management from the
University of Sherbrooke in Canada.
Additionally, he is a photographer.
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Climate Change is real and happening…

Don’t wait, Be the change, Act now!
www.climatechange.sg
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Climate Change A Silent Threat

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CLIMATE CHANGE:

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I.1. Overview Of The Climate System

II. What Is Climate Change?

II.1 What Is Climate Change ?

III. Causes Of Climate Change

III.1 Natural Sources Of Past Climate Changes

IV. Proofs Of Climate Change

IV.1 A Global View

© Sylvain Richer de Forges

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V.1 Modeling The Climate

VI) Impacts of Climate Change

VI.1 Impacts On Biodiversity

VII) Uncertainties And Ongoing

VII.1 Feedback Effects

© Sylvain Richer de Forges

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VIII.1 The Singapore Context

IX) What Can Be Done

IX.1 Where Are Actions Needed?

X) Common Misunderstandings About

© Sylvain Richer de Forges

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I. The Climate System | Page 1 of 11

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• Weather: Reffers to the

• Climate: Defines the

© Sylvain Richer de Forges

I. The Climate System | Page 2 of 11

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• the strength of the incident radiation from the sun, which

• the spherical shape of the earth and the orientation of

• the greenhouse effect of water vapour and other

• the various physical, chemical and biological

- the global energy balance,

• the rotation of the earth, which substantially modifies the

• the distribution of continents and oceans.

I. The Climate System | Page 3 of 11

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• Human activities can

I. The Climate System | Page 4 of 11

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• The earth receives energy from the sun equal to

-The atmospheric air circulations

• The transfer of heat is derived from solar energy and from

•The global temperature of the planet and how it is

I. The Climate System | Page 5 of 11

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• The global energy balance

I. The Climate System | Page 6 of 11

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There are 16 main elements of the water cycle:

• Water storage in oceans

I. The Climate System | Page 7 of 11

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• Vise versa, a change in the climate system will

• The transport of atmospheric moisture from the oceans,

• Water vapour is the most important of the greenhouse