Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2010)

Domestic Water Demand Forecasting and Management Under Changing Socio-Economic

Scenario

Asif M. Bhatti 1 and Seigo Nasu 2

1
Assistant Professor, Kochi University of Technology, Kochi, Japan.
2
Professor, Director, MoT Department, Kochi University of Technology, Kochi, Japan.

ABSTRACT: Water is one of the basic human need and imperative for sustaining quality of life on the earth.
However, its unbalanced and unmanaged use makes it scarce. In Pakistan, about 96% of its available water is
being used for agriculture and the remaining 4% for domestic, industrial and other purposes. Per capita water
availability has decreased from 5260 m3 in 1951 to 1050 m3 by the year 2010, placing Pakistan in the
category of a high water stress country. Presently, about 70 percent of the total population in the country has
access to safe drinking water. The domestic water use in selected cities of Pakistan was comprehensively
examined. The per capita water consumption varies significantly from 30 liter per capita per day (l/c/day) to
350 liter per capita per day. The poor are particularly vulnerable when water is either unclean or in short
supply. In urban areas, rainwater and ground water is used for municipal supplies to meet domestic
requirements. The water demand fluctuates with the seasons of the year, the days of the week, and the hours
of the day. A good understanding of domestic water usage patterns and trends is essential to bridge the gap
between present and future domestic water supply and demand. The present paper surveys the domestic
water use in different parts of Lahore, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi, where water supply and demand is
estimated and forecasted under changing socio-economic scenarios. The policy-relevant variables, mainly
econometric problems and water prices are systematically considered and their effect on water demand was
appraised. The study concludes that better management coupled with effective policy, awareness, efficient
structures, institutional strengthening and professional skills is vital to enhance the sustainability of the
system.

KEYWORDS: Water scarcity, domestic water demand, Forecast Model, Policy

1. INTRODUCTION

Water is essential in sustaining quality of life on which water demand and may be limited [2].
earth. The sustainability of socially sensitive good Deverill, 2001 defined water demand management
such as water depends on effective and efficient use as a practical strategy that improves the equitable,
of available water resources. The extensive use of efficient and sustainable use of water [3]. Water
water has increased globally and the efficacy of demand management is a set of techniques - whether
supply side measure is questionable. Owing to technical, economic, administrative, financial or
drastic increase in population, technological social - that add resilience to water systems to permit
advancement and economic growth; the demand for them to cope with shortage [4]. An operational
water supplies is continuously increasing. Numerous definition of water demand management with five
researchers has emphasized on water demand components proposed by the same author [4] is as
management rather than only the supply side follow; (i) reducing the quantity or quality of water
management. required to accomplish a specific task; (ii) adjusting
Water demand management is defined as a “policy the nature of the task so it can be accomplished with
that stresses making better use of existing supplies, less water or lower quality water; (iii) reducing
rather than developing new ones” [1]. The water losses in movement from source through use to
demand management in relation to water supply disposal; (iv) shifting time of use to off-peak
enables to estimate that how much the increase in periods; and (v) increasing the ability of the system
demand for water could be met by effective and to operate during droughts. Water resources
efficient use of existing water supplies. By definition, management is a political and socio-economic issue
the term “domestic water demand”, is usually taken as well as a scientific, technological and engineering
to mean the amount of water required for various concern [5]. However, difficulties mainly arise from
domestic uses. Whereas the phrase “water demand the integration of social perspectives with the
management” refers to the various methods by technical elements. In the framework of water
1
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2010)
 
demand management, the comprehensive analysis of m3/capita/year, water scarcity begins to occur [7] [8].
water demand by keeping in view the population The supply side criterion is based on a country’s
growth, socio-economic values and water pricing etc. annual water resources without reference to present
is an essential component in designing water demand and future demand or needs for water. The
curve. It is vital to understand that how demand is delineation of present water demand and supply
formulated, which factors determine it, how the issues, policies and future water demand forecast
water demand responds to social and econometric will help to manage the water efficiently and
variables, and how future demand will be shaped. effectively.
The present paper surveys the consumption patterns
for domestic water use in relation to income, price 3.1 Domestic water supply and demand related
and other water demand shifting variables in selected Issues
mega cities of Pakistan and suggests framework for
better use of existing water supplies. Access to safe and adequate potable water supply is
a basic human right. In Pakistan, groundwater is the
2. OBJECTIVE main source for drinking water. However, the cities
of Karachi and Hyderabad depend on surface water
The prime objective of the present research work is as a drinking source. The part of the supply to
to collect the water usages data of household and to Islamabad and Rawalpindi is also met with surface
identify pattern and trends in relation to socio- water. Domestic water supply and demand is not
economic and econometric variables. The paper uniform in different cities of Pakistan and varies
comprehensively describes the present situation, significantly based on location, climatic change,
issues and water quality of domestic water supply in house characteristics, and socio-economic variables.
Pakistan and selected megacities. The domestic Indeed, residential water demand is often found to be
water demand forecast model is developed for a positive function of the number of individuals in
Pakistan and selected cities to formulate the future the family, the size of the house, the number of
water policy. Finally, suggestions were made for water-using appliances, and household income
sustainable water demand management to cope with [9][10]. Drinking water demand is increasing rapidly
water scarcity. while the options for new development of water
resources are limited. In Pakistan, the municipal
3. BACKGROUND infrastructure is in poor shape. Underfunding by the
government and low revenue collection over the
Pakistan is the sixth largest country in the world by decades has weakened the capacity of municipal
population with 2.48% of the world total population governments to fund, build, and maintain
[6]. The total population increases from 34 million in infrastructure [11]. Pakistan’s water quality ranks as
1951 to 170 Million by the year 2010. The 80th out of 122 nations [12]. In Punjab province, the
proportion of urban population increased from 17% bacterial contamination was found in 49 % of
in 1951 to 36% by 2010 with urban population of 58 collected water samples. The major contribution to
million and population density of more than 209 supply within the home comes from private hand
persons per square kilometer. Rapid urbanization and/or motor pumps, which provide improved
and high population growth rate directly impact the drinking water supply for 71 % of the households of
water demand for domestic, industrial and Punjab [13]. In rural areas the provision of pipe
agricultural sectors. In Pakistan, about 96 percent of water supply is low and most of the rural population
its available water is being used for agriculture, 2 depends on handpump. However, in most of the
percent for industrial and the remaining 2 percent is cases, the quality of groundwater is not good. The
used by the domestic sector. Approximately 35 majority of the population in the country is relying
percent of domestic water supply is unaccounted for on unsafe and polluted drinking water. The poor are
water. Pakistan is on the verge of becoming a water particularly vulnerable and spend large part of their
deficit country and was ranked a water deficit income on buying water for survival. Pakistan
country according to the “supply side” criteria Council of Research in Water Resources has carried
developed by John Waterbury and Malin out extensive water quality monitoring program and
Falkenmark. The criteria ranked countries according reported that the bacterial contamination in 2005-
to “Annual renewable fresh water resources” and 2006 is ranged from 45 to 50 percent in Islamabad,
defined 17, 00 as the level of water supply above Rawalpindi, Lahore and Faisalabad [14]. Major
which shortage will be local or intermittent. As the issues facing by the domestic water supply sector
renewable water supply falls below 1,000 are; i) Inadequate, inequitable and inefficient
2
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2010)
 
distribution on water resources, ii) No clear policy birth rate, high birth and constant birthrate with
and guidelines for operation and maintenance of reference to the current population statistics. The
municipal infrastructure, iii) High capital investment detail of the population model is illustrated on
with low or no rate of return, iv) Drastic depletion of website of Pakistan Institute of Population Studies.
groundwater table, v) High ratio of unaccounted for Domestic water demand include the amount of water
water and low revenue collection efficiency, vi) used by households for different activities in house
About 80% unmetered water supply connections in as well as outside including drinking, cooking,
mega cites, vii) Lack of water awareness as an bathing, washing, water use for kitchen, laundry, and
economic good viii) Lack of citizens interest and gardening etc. The relevant information regarding
involvement in water related projects, ix) Confusion water demand and supply, water tariff, water supply
of social, technical, environmental and political aims, facilities, water table, water quality and quantity,
and x) Lack of an integrated approach and legal operational cost, and revenue collection were
framework. collected from water and sanitation authorities in
respective cities.
3.2 Study Area: Domestic water supply in selected To support the research work, a preliminary
mega cities questionnaire survey was also carried out. In each
city, about 80~100 household were surveyed. The
The study area of two metropolitan cities Faisalabad criteria taken in to account were living standard and
and Rawalpindi and one mega city Lahore is selected. household economic class. The houses were
All the three cities are located in the Punjab province surveyed from lower income class to high income
of Pakistan. Lahore in the capital of Punjab Province class depending on area of residence and monthly
and the second largest city of Pakistan. The household income. The collected data is compared
Rawalpindi city is the fourth largest city of Pakistan with the other reports and surveys already done by
and mainly relies on groundwater. Faisalabad is the the concerned authorities and ministries and found in
third largest city. It is certainly located in the flat good agreement. However, the accuracy and
alluvial plain of Punjab province. The groundwater reliability of the collected data is questionable and
is the major source of water for domestic purpose. demand for extensive survey.
The increased and unregulated private exploitation
of groundwater for domestic consumption have led 4.1 Scenario Analysis
to a decline in the water table and deteriorating the
groundwater quality. The rationale of the scenario analysis is to elucidate
the impact of different water demands and socio-
4. METHODOLOGY economic variables on future water supply and
demand.
Domestic water demand management is to make
water available for people without compromising the Income group classification: For the purpose of
sustainability of the system. For sustainable water demand analysis, the income groups are
operation and equitable distribution, it is imperative broadly classified in to three income groups. The
to forecast the water demand by taking into account low income group with an average income of
the social and technical aspects of water. The US$ 100/household/month, the medium income
population forecast model of the country and the group with an average income of US$ 225
three urban areas was developed as follow; /household/month and high income group with an
average income of US$ 600/ household /month and
Popi= Pop0(1+GR1) (1+GR2) ……(1+GRi) above [15] [16].

Where Popi is the population in the ith year, Pop0 is Water demand Scenario: On the basis of the
the initial population GRi is the growth rate of collected data, the country’s total water demand is
population in the ith year. The population growth further divided into four categories: water demand of
rate of the country depends on crude birth rate (birth mega cities, metropolitan cities, towns and rural
per 1000 persons), crude death rate, immigration to areas. To develop urban water demand forecast
the country and migration from the country. model, the medium growth rate is considered for
However, to forecast the urban population, the further analysis. The water demand in urban areas is
expansion of the urban area is an important further categorized as the water demand by high
component. The population forecast model was income group, water demand by medium income
developed for four scenarios: low birth rate, medium group and water demand by low income group. To
3
 
 Society for Social Managgement System ms (SSMS-20010)
 
forecast the future waterr demand, thhree scenarioos under sceenarios of coonstant water demand as inn base
were
w considered as follow w: year 201 10, low waater demand and high water w
demand wasw forecasteed as given in i Table 1. Under
U
i):
i Constant water deman nd: This scennario is based
the consttant water demand scenaario, the dom mestic
on the assum mption that thhe domestic water
w demannd
water dem mand will bee 1.3 times annd 1.6 times more
will
w follow th he same trendd and will nott change in thhe
than the base year 20010 by the yeear 2020 and 2030
coming yearss.
respectivvely. The wateer demand management
m iss vital
ii):
i High Water
W Demand: It is assuumed that thhe to cope with growinng domestic water demannd in
positive
p channge in socio-eeconomic patttern and livinng Pakistan.
standard willl lead to chhange in doomestic wateer
demand andd the domeestic water demand willl
increase in thhe future.
iii):
i Low Water Demand: The awareneess of water as a
an economiccal good, welll developed water pricinng
policy,
p rules and regulations, and the technologicaal
development will cause low water demand
d in thhe
future.

The per capitta domestic water

w demandd of respectivve
income groupp is estimatedd as follow; Figure 1:
1 Populationn forecast undder different birth
b
ratte scenarios
WDi= WD0 (11+ WDgr1) (11+ WDgr2)… (1+ WDgri)

Where
W WDi isi the per capita domestic water demannd
in the ith yeaar, WD0 is thee initial per caapita domestiic
water
w demannd and WDggri the growtth rate of peer
capita domesstic water dem mand in the ith year [17]].
The total domestic waterr demand TW WDi in the itth
year
y is estimaated as follow w;

TWDi = WDi* Popi

5. RESUL
LTS AND DIISCUSSION
N
Figuree 2: Urban annd Rural popuulation forecaast
under mediuum birth rate scenario
s
Based
B on thee analyses, the population and the wateer
demand for domestic
d sectoor for the nex
xt twenty yearrs
Tablle 1: Domesticc water demaand forecast of
o
were
w forecassted. It was observed th hat under thhe
Pakistan
constant birth rate scenario, the popuulation of thhe
country will rise to 216 million
m 2 million by
and 272 Domesstic water dem
mand (BCM)
Low Highh
the
t year 20200 and 2030 reespectively. Under U the loww Year Constannt
Water wateer
birth
b t population
rate andd high birth raate scenarios the water dem
mand
demand demannd
will
w be abou ut 232 and 2660 million reespectively by
2010 8.42 8.42 8.422
the
t year 2030 0. However, under
u the midddle birth ratte
scenario the population
p off the country will touch thhe 2015 8.95 9.57 10.994
figure of 245 million by thhe year 2030.. The previouus 2020 9.32 10.79
9 13.880
population
p d
data trends showed that the realistiic 2025 9.48 12.04
4 16.997
approach is to considerr the mediuum birth ratte 2030 9.38 13.27
7 20.35
scenario for further analysis. Thhe graphicaal
representation
r n of the projected populaation is show wn The pressent water sittuation in thee Punjab province
in figure 1. The
T drastic inccrease in urbanization witth was comp prehensively examined. It was observedd that
the
t growth rate r of nearly 3% was noticed
n in thhe 86 % of urban populaation depends on water suupply
previous
p yearr. With the saame growth rate,
r the urbaan scheme/tap water andd electric motoor (0.5 -1 hp)) as a
population
p w be equal too the rural by the year 2030
will major souurce of drinkiing water. Thhe majority off rural
(figure 2). Thhe domestic water demannd of Pakistaan populatioon use hand pump and electric motorrs for

4
 
 Society for Social Managgement System ms (SSMS-20010)
 
groundwater abstraction. The mainn source of o city of Faisalabad aboout 83% of th he household have
drinking watter is listed in i table 2. Inn urban areass, water acccess within tthe premises with groundw water
51% househo olds have driinking water access within as the maain sources off drinking waater. The quality of
the
t premises or collect driinking water at a the distancce groundwater varies within
w the city
y and 42 % of o the
of 0-100 metter. Only 18% % of the houseeholds have tto collectedd water samplles were founnd fit for drinnking
collect waterr at the distaance of 1 Km m or more. In purpose [16]. More than 90% of o the popullation
rural
r areas, 36% househ holds have drinking
d wateer doesn’t use
u any treatm ment method for f drinking water.
w
availability within
w the preemises or at the distance ofo Around 20 2 % of popuulation relies on o mineral/boottled
0-100 meterr. In rural areas fetchinng water foor water as a drinking soource. The ecconomic feasiibility
cooking and drinking, mostly
m by wom men, involvees of the miineral water is i another isssues and onlyy high
lot of time and
a distance. In some casses, the wateer income group g may uuse bottled waterw for drinnking
collection sou urce is more than
t 2 or 3 kmm. purpose. Moreover, the governm ment has insttalled
water treeatment filteers in differeent cities annd in
Tab1e 2: Main
M source off drinking watter in Punjab different parts of samee cites to provvide the safe water
w
Province, Pakistan
P [13] to the population.
p T
The collected d data duringg the
Main source
s of drinnking water preliminaary householdd survey sho owed that 288% of
Source (%) the wateer is used for bath and a shower. The
Punjab Urbaan Rural percentagge of daily hoousehold watter use in diffferent
Tap Waterr 28 51 18 activitiess is graphicallly reported inn figure 3. A high
Hand pum mp 33 11 44 range of variation wass observed in each activityy. The
Motor pum mp 35 35 35 average useu for drinkking water is 2 liter/capitaa/day.
Dug well 1 1 2 The per capita
c water uuse for bath/sshower range from
Other 3 3 2 15 ~ 150 liters/capita//day and for tooilet the rangge is 5
~ 60 litters/capita/dayy. The wateer use rangee for
The water deemand forecaast model of the t study areea cooking purpose
p is 5-- 45 liter/capiita/day. The water
w
was
w developeed. All the three t cites shhowed similaar demand o
of high incomme group is ge
enerally twice
e than
kind
k of trendds with regard d to housing characteristiccs the low inncome group .
and water deemand. An average
a household had six
members
m witth a balancedd gender ratioo of 50:50. In
the
t city of Laahore around 98% of the ho ousehold havve
water
w access within the premises. Grou undwater is thhe
major
m sourcees of drinkinng water. Thhe quality of o
groundwater is generally y not good and bacteriaal
contamination was found d in 59% of the collected
water
w samplees. Majority of populationn (70%) don’’t
adopt any trreatment meethod before drinking thhe
water.
w Wheree as 30% cittizens use water treatmennt
methods
m suchh as boiling and
a water filteering. A smalll
portion
p of thhe populationn use minerall/bottled wateer
for drinking. The majoritty of populaation is at thhe
mercy
m of Waater and Sanitation Authoriities and drinnk
t supplied water withou
the ut treatment. In
I Rawalpinddi Figuree 3: Daily houusehold waterr use in differeent
about 89% of the houssehold have water accesss acctivities (%)
within
w the prremises. Grou undwater and surface wateer
is the main soources of drinnking water. The quality of o The waater supply indicator of the Laahore,
groundwater is poor and only 25% off the collected Rawalpin ndi, Faisalabaad, Dehli/Indiia, Shanghai/C
China
water
w samplees were found fit for drinnking purposee. and hig ghly developped city Osaka/Japan
O were
Around
A 75%
% population n drinks waater from thhe tabulated
d as shown inn table 3. Thee water supplly per
source withhout any treeatment. Arround 14 % nly 8 hours inn Rawalpindi as compared to 18
day is on
households
h boil water before drinkking and thhe hours in Lahore
L and 24 hours in Ossaka Japan. One
O of
remaining
r use other treeatment methhods for saffe the majoor issues is hhigh value off unaccounteed for
water.
w The portion off the popuulation usinng water in Lahore, Raw walpindi and Faisalabad.
F N
Nearly
mineral/bottle
m ed water iss small; hoowever, rapid one thirdd of the waterr is unaccounnted for wateer and
increase has been
b seen in the past yearss. In industriaal revenue collection
c effi
ficiency is low
w (70%).
5
 
 Society for Social Managgement System
ms (SSMS-20010)
 
Tablle 3: Water Suupply Indicatorrs in the researcch study area [[18] [16]
Dehhli/ Shangghai/ Osakaa/
Indicators Lahore
L Rawaalpindi Faisalabad
Inddia Chinna Japann
Per day hourss of water Suppply
18 8 8 6 24 24
(hour/day)
3
Water producction (m /capitta/day) 0.34 0.28 0
0.28 0.3 0.477 0.53
Water Supply y Coverage (%% of total
87 885 75 6
69 1000 100
population)
Unaccountedd for water (%) 34 440 40
4 53 17 7
Revenue Collection efficienncy (%) 75 770 50 7
70 93.55 95
Consumptionn/capita (Liter/c/day) 270 2
210 2
200 1110 2511 263
No. of Staff per
p 1000 conneection 12 11 10 199.9 5.77 1.7

The staff perr thousand connections is 1.7 persons in

Osaka as com mpared to 10 tot 12 personss in study areaa.
Most
M the watter connections are unmettered with flaat
rates
r based on the covvered area. The metered
connections are less thann 25 percent of total wateer
connections causing uneequal distribbution of thhe
available watter resources. The numberr of person peer
domestic con nnection is 6 to 6.23 as compared tto
developed country
c withh only 2.3 persons peer
domestic con nnection.
The populatiion forecast model and water w demannd
forecast moddel was deveeloped for thhe three citiees Figuree 5: Water dem
mand forecast under differrent
under
u consideration. The year 2010 is taken as basse scenarioss: Rawalpinddi City
year
y and the population and water deemand for thhe
years
y 2015, 2020, 2025 and a 2030 weere forecastedd. Under thhe constant water demaand scenario, the
The current population 6.4 6 million of o Lahore citty current domestic
d watter demand of 4.2 MCM M/day
w become 8.6 and 11.55 million by the year 2020
will will be around
a 7.5 M
MCM/day by the year 20330. In
and 2030 reespectively. Under
U the constant wateer case of Faisalabad
F ciity, the popuulation of thee city
demand scennario, the doomestic wateer demand of o will increease to 3.9 mmillion by the year 2010 annd 5.2
urbanized
u cityy Lahore willl be 1.3 timess and 1.6 timees million byb the year 22030. With the constant water w
more
m than thhe base year 2010
2 by the year
y 2020 annd demand scenario, the city needs 8.3 8 MCM/dayy and
2030.
2 The present
p wateer demand of o 1.6 MCM M 11.2 MC CM/day by the year 2020 and 2030
(million cubic meter)/day will be nearlyy 3 MCM/daay respectivvely as reppresented in figure 6. For
by
b the year 2030
2 as depictted in figure 4.
4 The presennt sustainabble water suppply and dem mand managem ment,
population
p off Rawalpindi city is 1.9 million
m and thiis the citiess have to adoppt proper poliicy and technniques
figure will riise to 2.5 and d 3.3 millionn by the yearrs to cope with
w water sccarcity and too ensure the water w
2020
2 and 20330 respectivelly as shown inn figure 5. availabiliity for the surrvival of entirre population..

Figure 4: Water
W demandd forecast undder different Figure 6: Water dem
mand forecast under differrent
scenarios: Lahore City scenarioss: Faisalabadd City

6
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2010)
 
The gap between water supply and demand is ranged Water demand (m3)
between 20-35 lpcd in three cities. The model results = 0.08 *Water Tariff + 0.0001 Income/month + 0.35
showed that the gap between the water availability
and demand is widening. Without appropriate The increase in water demand induced by increase in
planning and demand management the booming income need to be managed wisely. The other
water scarcity will impede the domestic water sector. economic instruments have little potential to
The per capita expenditure on drinking water from influence water use. The success of water supply and
piped water or groundwater without treatment is demand management depend on effective and
ranged from US$ o.1 to USS$ 0.35. Only small efficient utilization of the scarce water resources at
portion of the households treated their drinking both the individual and collective level.
water at home depending on their awareness
regarding water quality and health. In case of bottled 6. CONCLUSION
water the per capita expenditure ranged from US$ 8
to USS$ 10. The correlation of the water demand The domestic water demand is function of
with water price varies significantly depending on econometric variables, assess to knowledge, housing
social and econometric factors. characteristics, accessibility to the water source,
The change in water price will effect the poor and its economic class, water quality, climate and hydrology,
impact on water demand will not be noteworthy. water pricing and water policy. In order to cope with
The water demand seems to be inelastic with respect domestic water needs of rapidly growing population,
to change in price. Middle income class is willing to an efficient, economic and environmentally
pay more for reliable water quality and quantity. The acceptable integrated approach is needed to arrive at
high income class use water as much they want sustainable solutions. There is dire need to evolve
regardless of the water price that is less than 1 workable methods and approaches to synchronize
percent of monthly income. The behavior change the demand and supply gap. It is dire need to create
will be key for sustainable water demand knowledge to be shared among different disciplines.
management. The policy-relevant variables, mainly To improve water supply in urban areas, the
income and water prices should systematically installation of water meters need to be encouraged.
considered and their effects on water demand has to Building a new social framework including
be appraised in the formulation of short term and community participation at all level of water
long term water policy. The correlation of water management is necessary. The community
demand, income and water price is demonstrated in participation in water pricing policies, incentives for
figure 7. efficient use, affordability by low-income users and
other vulnerable groups, water awareness especially
among the women and children are prime factors for
success of any domestic water project. The
Government of Pakistan should acknowledge a water
1000 crisis and start to collect sufficient and reliable data.
The extraction of groundwater should be regulated
en/Month)

800 and more efficiently monitored. The shift in policy

600 from surface water for agriculture to surface water
for domestic purpose and provision of water to
Water Tariff (Y

400
provision of safe, adequate, equitable, sustainable
200

0 50
60
and affordable water services is crucial for healthy
and prosperous Pakistan.  
)
m 3

40
d(

100x103 7. REFERENCES
an

30
80x103
em

60x103 20
rD

Incom 40x103
ate

e/Hou
sehold 20x10
3
[1]. Winpenny J.T., 1997, Demand management for
W

/Mont
h(Yen
) efficient and equitable use in water economics,
management and demand, Melvyn Kay, Tom Franks
and Laurence Smith (eds.).
Figure 7: The income, water demand and water
[2]. Froukh M. L., 2001, Decision-support system
tariff relationship
for domestic water demand forecasting and

7
 
 Society for Social Management Systems (SSMS-2010)
 
management, Water Resources Management 15: [10]. Renzetti, S., 2002, The economics of water
363–382, 2001. demands, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
[3]. Deverill, P., 2001, Sharing it out – introducing [11]. Zaidi, S.A. 2005. Issues in Pakistan's
water demand strategies for small towns (London economy. Karachi: Oxford University Press.
and Loughborough, UK: Water and Env. Health).
[12]. http://www.unesco.org/bpi/wwdr/ - Water
[4]. Brooks D. B., 2006, An operational definition quality ranking list
of water demand management, Water Resources
[13]. Government of Punjab, 2009, Multiple
Development, Vol. 22, No. 4, 521–528.
Indicator Cluster Survey 2007-2008, Punjab,
[5]. Koike T. et al., 2009, Time for a change in Pakistan.
Japanese water resources policy, part 2: towards a
[14]. Kahlown M. A., et al., 2008, Fifth water
planning and management framework for adapting to
quality monitoring report, PCRWR, Islamabad,
changes, Water Resources Development, Vol. 25,
Pakistan.
No. 4, 565–570, December 2009.
[15]. World Bank, 2006, Urban water supply and
[6]. World Population Prospects, Table A.1., 2009,
sewerage reform strategy: Tariff report, FICHTNER,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Germany.
Population Division. United Nations.
[16]. KUT, 2009, Surveyed/collected data during
[7] Waterbury J., 1979, Hydropolitics of the Nile
field campaign by KUT researcher.
Valley, Syracuse, N.Y., Syracuse University Press.
[17]. XU Z. X., et al., 2002, Sustainability analysis
[8] Gardner-Outlaw T. and Engelman R., 1997,
for yellow river water resources using the system
Sustaining water - population and the future of
dynamics approach, Water Resources Management
renewable water supplies, 2nd Update, Washington
16: 239–261, 2002.
D.C., Population Action International, p5.
[18]. ADB, 2004, Water in Asian cities: Utility
[9]. Lyman R.A., 1992, Peak and off-peak residential
performance and civil society views, Asian
water demand, Water Resources Research 28, no. 9:
development Bank.
2159-67.

8