ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

Assignment one
Q1. Distinguish between the following terms in the context of hydrological modelling
I. Unit hydrograph, pulse response function
Answer
The Unit Hydrograph (UH) of a watershed is defined as the direct runoff hydrograph resulting
from a unit volume of excess rainfall of constant intensity and uniformly distributed over the
drainage area.
Pulse response function is an input of a unit amount of rainfall occurring in a duration Δt. For
example Precipitation is a series of pulse inputs

II. Linear perturbation model, Transfer function Model, Seasonally varying

Answer
Linear Perturbation mode, linear perturbation model (LPM) is suggested by Nash and Barsi
(1983) and further developed by Liang and Nash (1988), says in any one year in which the
rainfall or other input exactly follows seasonal expectations, the discharge hydrograph will
similarly follows its expectations, while in another years, departures from seasonally expected
value input and output will be linearly related.

Transfer function models, transfer an input data series through a system and generate an output
data series from the same system.

Eg. The genesis of a new method for hydrologic flood routing introduced here in comes from the
observation that hydrologic flood routing accomplishes the same task as a transfer function

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

model; here the system is the river reach under consideration, and the input and output data
series are the upstream and downstream discharge data, respectively.

It can be demonstrated that the mathematical form of the general discrete, linear transfer
function model is identical to that of the general, linear hydrologic flood routing model. The
power of the transfer function modelling procedure adopted here in lies in its ability to identify
the most parsimonious (compact) form of the general linear model applicable to the problem in
hand. Thus the simplest and most accurate linear hydrologic flood routing model for the given
pair of data series (inflows and outflows) can be established.

Transfer function model is such that the output per input (e.g. Fourier transformation).

Seasonally varying model: Is a model that shows variation in a time series within one year that
is repeated more or less regularly. Seasonal variation may be caused by weather condition such
as; temperature, rainfall, wind, weather (coldness, hotness or mildness), etc.

III. Runoff coefficient Models:

The runoff coefficient (C) model is a mathematical dimensionless coefficient relating the amount

of runoff to the amount of precipitation received. It is a larger value for areas with low
infiltration and high runoff (pavement, steep gradient), and lower for permeable, well vegetated
areas (forest, flat land).

IV. Black box models, conceptual models:

Black box models:

These models are based solely on empirical relationships between one or more inputs and
outputs. The internal processes in the system being modeled are unknown. Typically, the
input-output relationships are based on statistics such as a regression equation. Frequently,
the regression constants are given as coefficients with little or no information regarding the
variability. Examples in the field of hydrology include the Rational Equation and the Unit
Hydrograph (Brooks et al., 1991).

Conceptual models:

A conceptual model is a representation of a system, made of the composition of concepts which

are used to help people know, understand, or simulate a subject the model represents. Conceptual

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

models are commonly used to represent the important components (e.g., features, events, and
processes) that relate hydrologic inputs to outputs. These components describe the important
functions of the system of interest, and are often constructed using entities (stores of water) and
relationships between these entities (flows or fluxes between stores). The conceptual model is
coupled with scenarios to describe specific events (either input or outcome scenarios).

V. Sensitivity analysis, and error diagnosis:

Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis (SA) methods help to identify the parameters that have a strong impact on
the model outputs and hence influence the model response. In addition, SA assists in analyzing
the interaction between parameters, its preferable range and its spatial variability, which in turn
influence the model outcomes.

Error diagnosis

Error diagnosis is the problems of identifying the most appropriate model structure for a given
problem and quantifying the uncertainty in model structures.

VI. Objective function, calibration, and verification

Objective function

Objective function is mathematical function/ statistical procedures expressing the most desired
characteristics between a model’s simulated output and the real world observation

Calibration

Calibration is minimizing differences between observation and model output by tuning model
parameters.

Verification

Verification test whether a model is applicable for certain situations

VII. Lumped and distributed

Lumped

These models describe the watershed as a single entity with a single rainfall input (mean
rainfall). The discharge at the watershed outlet is described based on a global dynamic of the

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

system. These models are usually based on the concept of the unit hydro gram, UH. The lumped
model considers individual sub-basins as a single unit.

Distributed
A distributed model will subdivide a sub-basin area based on a particular grid size to capture
spatial and temporal variability and then route flows through the sub basin from cell to cell.

VIII. Deterministic and stochastic

Deterministic
In deterministic models, the output of the model is fully determined by the parameter values and
the initial conditions.

Stochastic

The output produced by a stochastic model has partial randomness. It is possible to say that a
stochastic model creates a prediction.

Q2. What are the most important assumptions embedded in Unit hydro graph concept or linear
systems models? Describe in clear terms

Sherman (1932) first proposed the unit hydrograph concept. The Unit Hydrograph (UH) of a
watershed is defined as the direct runoff hydrograph resulting from a unit volume of excess
rainfall of constant intensity and uniformly distributed over the drainage area. The duration of
the unit volume of excess or effective rainfall, sometimes referred to as the effective duration,
defines and labels the particular unit hydrograph. The unit volume is usually considered to be
associated with 1 cm (1 inch) of effective rainfall distributed uniformly over the basin area.

The fundamental assumptions implicit in the use of unit hydrographs for modeling hydrologic
systems are:

The unit hydrograph is a simple linear model that can be used to derive the hydrograph resulting
from any amount of excess rainfall. The following basic assumptions are inherent in this model:

1. The excess rainfall has a constant intensity within the effective duration.

2. The excess rainfall is uniformly distributed throughout the whole drainage area.

3. The base time of the DRH (the duration of direct runoff resulting from an excess rainfall of
given duration is constant,

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

4. The ordinates of all DRH'S of a common base time are directly proportional to the total
amount of direct runoff represented by each hydrograph.

5. For a given watershed, the hydrograph resulting from a given excess rainfall reflects the
unchanging characteristics of the watershed.

When the effective rainfall is given as a hyetograph, that is, as a sequence of number (M)
rainfall pulses of the same duration ∆t, the corresponding direct runoff hydrograph can be
expressed as the discrete convolution of the rainfall hyetograph and the Unit Hydrograph as,

Where Pm is the volume of the m th effective rainfall pulse, Qn is the direct runoff, and Unm+1
are the Unit Hydrograph ordinates. Although the above assumptions lead to acceptable results,
watersheds are indeed nonlinear systems. For example, unit hydrographs derived from different
rainfall-runoff events, under the assumption of linearity, are usually different, thereby
invalidating the linearity assumption. The determination of unit hydrographs for particular basins
can be carried out either using the theoretical developments of linear system theory; or using
empirical techniques. For either case, simultaneous observations of both precipitation and stream
flow must be available. These two approaches are presented in more detail in later sections.

Q3. Categorize the classes of hydrological models on the basis of process description and
describe the features of each class of models?
Models can be classified into four main categories:
i. Based on model structure it can be classified as Black box models, Physical models
and Conceptual models.
Black box models
The black box models are also called empirical models or metric models. Results from these
models are completely based on mathematical relation between the input and output. In this kind

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

of model, physical processes i.e. the catchment behavior is generally not considered. Such
models are usually good for modelling a particular area using available and analyzed data.

Physical models

Physically-based models are deterministic models and also known as mechanistic models. These
models are based on complex physical theories. These models need a huge amount of
computational data and time. Physically-based models depend directly on the hydrological
processes involved and use spatial discretization or other types of hydrological based units for
the generation of stream flow. These models show the inside view of a procedure which helps to
better understand the hydrological system.

Conceptual models

The conceptual models are also called parametric models or grey box. It can be said that these
types of models are a substitution between black-box models and deterministic models.
Conceptual models are based on storage like reservoirs, lakes etc. which are filled through the
various hydrological process. In such models, the different model parameters are calculated
using the calibration approach based on time series of the rainfall and runoff. Such models
generally consider the catchment as homogeneous.

ii. Based on the aspects of randomness, the hydrologic models can be classified into two
categories. Stochastic models and deterministic models.

Stochastic

The output produced by a stochastic model has partial randomness. It is possible to say that a
stochastic model creates a prediction.

Deterministic

Deterministic model does not give randomness, which means these kinds of models work with a
given input all the time and give the same output. Deterministic model makes a forecast

iii. Depending upon the distribution of input data in spatial and temporal scale, the
hydrologic models are further divided as lumped, distributed, and semi-distributed
models.

Lumped

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

In lumped models, the whole catchment is considered as one and the average value of each
parameter is used for the entire catchment. Hence the results are not that accurate for the large
catchments.

Semi-distributed

Semi-distributed models divide the watershed into smaller sub-watershed units. Every sub
watershed has a separate set of model parameter values. Hence these types of models include
spatial variability of the parameters and give better results than the lumped models.

Distributed

Distributed models, the watershed is discretized in a more detailed way into cells or a regular or
irregular mesh.

iv. Based on time span for modelling it can be classified in to continuous and event
models.

Continuous

The continuous models are used to estimate the discharge and other functions of the catchment
over a long time period.

Event

The event-based models are used for the estimation of the runoff only from a single storm event.
These are normally used in designing purposes.

Q4. List the most important uses of hydrological models and relate which classes of models are
used for each purpose identified.

i. For estimation of rainfall runoff relationship

Accurately representing the rainfall-runoff process is the primary goal and the main challenge to
hydrologists. To achieve this, many hydrological models have been developed, varying in
complexity, spatial resolution, processes representation and other characteristics. Two types of
hydrologic models have been used in most applications: lumped-conceptual models and
physically-based models. SWB, GR4J, HBV, HEC- HMS, MGB-IPH, SWAT, and SHE are
some examples of conceptual and physically-based hydrological models that are well-known in
the hydrological community and have been applied worldwide. Physically-based models seek to

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

describe the physical processes that occur within the catchment through the use of continuity
equations. They are often said to have a better performance than the conceptual models due to
the incorporation of physical parameters. However, as the level of sophistication of the physical
representation increases, the model becomes more complex to configure, requiring more
parameters, which can lead to over-parameterization and greater calibration effort. Therefore, the
availability of sufficient data to represent each of the modelled processes, time and
computational requirements are frequently limitations to the application of physically-based
models.

ii. For estimation of sediment yield in the catchment

A Geographical Information System (GIS) based method is proposed and demonstrated for
the identification of sediment source areas and the prediction of storm sediment yield from
catchments.

Simple methods such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), the Modified Universal
Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE), or the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) are
frequently used for the estimation of surface erosion and sediment yield from catchment
areas.

iii. To know land use and land cover dynamics change in a watershed over a long period of
time

The land use and land cover dynamic change are studied by remote sensing and geographic
information system (GIS).

iv. To know ground water potential which is used for different purposes and etc.

A groundwater model which can help us to make predictions about the behavior of the
groundwater flow system is mod flow software.

Q5. Identify the most important requirements of models and how do you measure each
characteristics?

The efficiency of the results obtained by a hydrological model depends on many factors such as
the method of distribution and resolution of input data, calibration method of the model, type of
model, size and topography of study area etc. So, before choosing any model for flow

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simulation, one must find out wisely that which software or model would give better results for
the particular application.

a) Model availability: A model should be easily available for use either open source or
through agreements along with an active developer community and the possibilities of
adaptation to specific purposes. Open-source models also allow users to perform
modifications.
b) Type of Model: Type of model to be used can be decided based on the catchment size
and relief as shown in table 1 and according to the additional required features.
c) Input data requirement: The model selection depends largely upon the available input
data. If the distributed or gridded data is not available, the lumped model is the only
option. Whereas some models have large data requirement which leads to difficulty in
model calibration and validation.
d) Spatial and temporal distribution: The required resolution of the data depends on the
predominant rainfall which is causing a flood in the area. If the flood is caused by
seasonal rainfall than the daily data will be required, if it was because of frontal or
advective rainfall then the daily or hourly rainfall data required. On the other hand, if it is
the convective rainfall, then the hourly or sub-hourly rainfall is required. Require
resolution of the data also depends on the purpose of modelling. For example, in case of
flash flood simulations and forecasting, higher temporal resolution is required, so the
model should be capable of simulating hourly or even sub-hourly time step. Whereas, the
temporal resolution of daily time steps is good enough for long term simulations.
Similarly, the model which is capable of working high spatial resolution should be
chosen for small catchments.
e) Model calibration process: Model calibration can be done either manually or
automatically. Manual calibration is usually time-consuming and requires experienced
users. If the option for automatic calibration is provided in the model, one of the factors
for model selection is that there are a limited number of calibration parameters. It is better
if there is an option of combining the manual and the automatic calibration.
f) Additional features: Depending upon the purpose of modelling, the model should have
options for choosing additional routines such as snow routine, soil routine, storage
routine, response function and routing etc.

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g) User community/assistance available: The user community should be large enough to

provide sufficient assistance without having waited long in case one gets stuck in the
process. There should be a good platform to share problems, where one can get the
solutions quickly because the developers may not be always available to assist quickly.

Q6. If you want to develop a suitable model for your application, consider the steps and
procedures you would like you follow.

Steps and procedures of model developing

• Understanding the problem situation (a precursor to conceptual modelling)

• Determining the modelling and general project objectives

• Identifying the model outputs (responses)

• Identify the model inputs (experimental factors)

• Determining the model content (scope and level of detail), identifying any assumptions and
simplifications

Fore example

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B. Black Box Models

Q7. What is a black box models in the context of hydrology and what does it describe?

In black box models, the emphasis is placed on identifying a relationship between input and
output of the model, without worrying explicitly about the physical mechanisms of converting. A
black box model does not attempt in any way to represent the process occurring within the
catchment, not even in a simplified manner.

A classic example of this type of model is the unit hydrograph often used for small basins.

Q8. Describe Seasonally Varying Runoff Coefficient and the Simple Seasonal Model (Fourier
function) and distinguish the major differences.

Seasonally Varying Runoff Coefficient

This is defined as the total runoff observed in a year (or season) divided by the total rainfall in
the same year (or season).

Yearly ( seasonal ) Total Runoff ( mm)

K= Yearly ( seasonal ) Total Rainfall(mm)

The annual (seasonal) runoff coefficient differs from the runoff coefficients derived from
individual storms as it takes into account also those rainfall events which did not produce any
runoff. The annual (seasonal) runoff-coefficient is therefore always smaller than the arithmetic
mean of runoff coefficients derived from individual runoff-producing storms.

Simple Seasonal Model (Fourier function)

Simple seasonal models are models those depend on linearity between inputs and outputs.

Q9.The following values 0, 2, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 when reduced to unit volume represent the ordinates
of at hourly intervals of a two hour unit hydrograph. Determine the runoff if the following values
1, 5, 2, 2 represent the volume excess rain in successive two hour periods.

Solution

From the equation of the derivation of total discharge (hydrograph) from unit hydrograph using
effective rainfall is calculated as

N=n+m-1=7+3-1=10

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

Q1=U1*P1

Q2=P2*U1+P1*U2

Q3=P3*U1+P2*U2+P1*U3

Q4=P4*U1+P3*U2+P2*U3+P1*U4

Q5=P5*U1+P4*U2+P3*U3+P2*U4+P1*U5

Q6=P6*U1+P5*U2+P4*U3+P3*U4+P2*U5+P1*U6

Q7=P7*U1+P6*U2+P5*U3+P4*U4+P3*U5+P2*U6+P1*U7

Calculate with the same procedure up to Q10.

time start of 2 hour unit effective runoff increment direct runoff due of effective rainfall total direct
effective rainfall hydrograph ordinates for 2 hour period increments runoff
1 5 2 2
8(cl4+col5+c
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ol6+col7)
0 0 0 0 0
2 2 1 2 0 2
4 4 5 4 10 0 14
6 3 2 3 20 4 0 27
8 2 2 2 15 8 4 29
10 1 1 10 6 8 25
12 0 0 5 4 6 15
14 0 2 4 6
16 0 2 2
18 0 0
total 120

Total runoff= 0+2+14+27+29+25+15+6+2+0=120

Q10. If the input to a hydrological system is given by 2, 6, 1 and the output from the system by
0, 4, 14, 8, 1, 0, find the pulse response of the system by i) substitution ii) by ordinary least
square.

Solution

Given

P1=2 Q1=0 Q4=8

P2=6 Q2=4 Q5=1

P3=1 Q3=14 Q6=0

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

I). by substitution method

Now, from the number of runoff (n)

The number of pulse response (m) is calculated as

Qn= Pm*Un-m+1

UN=7-3+1=4

So, by using the above equation we can determine the pulse response by substitution method

Q1= P1*U1

U1= Q1/P1, It is the same for the other

Q1= P1*U1, U1= 0

Q2= P2*U1+P1*U2 U2=2

Q3= P3*U1+P2*U2+P3*U3 U3=1

Q4= P4*U1+P3*U2+P2*U3+P1*U4 U4=0

P1U1=R1, 2*U1=0, U1=0

P2U1+P1U2=R2, 6*0+2*U2=4, U2=2

P3U1+P2U2+P1U3=R3, 1*0+6*2+2*U3=14, U3=1

P3U2+P2U3+P1U4=R4, 1*2+6*1+2*U4=8, U4=0 Now, U= (0, 2, 1, 0)

II. By ordinary least square method

Number of precipitation=3

Number of runoff (discharge) =6

Now to determine the number of pulse response

Qn = Pm*Un-m+1

So, Q1=P1*U1-----------------------------------------U1=?

Q2 = P2*U1+P1*U2------------------------------U2=?

Q3 = P3*U1+P2*U2+P1*U3--------------------U3=?

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Q4 = 0*U1+P3*U2+P2*U3+P1*U4------------U4=?

From the above equation make it as a matrix form

A= [P1*U1+0+0+0; P2*U1+P1*U2+0+0; P3*U1+P2*U2+P1*U3+0;

0+P3*U2+P2*U3+P1*U4]

A= [2 0 0 0; 6 2 0 0; 1 6 2 0; 0 1 6 2]

B= [0 4 14 8 1 0]

Let remove the first and the last column of ‘B’ because it doesn’t cause any effect on the
calculation

So to calculate pulse response we can use MATLAB software

PU=Q

U= inv (P)*Q

Using math lab we obtain the pulse response unit hydrograph ordinates as the following:

U = (0, 2, 1, 0)

C. Conceptual Models

Q11. What is the most common feature of all conceptual hydrological models and how do they
differ from the black box models?

Conceptual models interpret runoff processes by connecting simplified components in the overall
hydrological process. They are based on reservoir storages and simplified equations of the
physical hydrological process, which provide a conceptual idea of the behaviors in a catchment.
Conceptual models represent the water balance equation with the conversion of rainfall to runoff,
evapotranspiration, and groundwater. Each component in the water balance equation is estimated
by mathematical equations that distribute the precipitation input data. The general governing
equations for conceptual models are versions of the water balance equation which control surface
water and storage fluctuations shown below.

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

Where dS/dt is the change in reservoir storage, P is precipitation, ET is evapotranspiration, Qs is

surface runoff, and GW is groundwater.

Hydrological components and water storages in soil or groundwater reservoirs are idealized in
the model process. Models simulate the exchange in water among the atmosphere, hydrological
components, and storage reservoirs, based on a water balance equation. Conceptual models vary
in complexity depending on the sophistication of the balance equations used to represent
hydrological component. Because of this variation, these models need a range of parameters and
meteorological input data. Conceptual models have gained popularity in the modeling
community because they are easy to use and calibrate. With some, there is a likelihood that a
previously calibrated model can be used for a different catchment. Spatial variability is generally
not considered due to the simplicity of the model. Lack of physical meaning in governing
equations and parameters is also a limitation. Conceptual models are best used when
computation time is limited and catchment characteristics are not analyzed in detail.

Black box

Black box models are based on input-output relations and do not describe the underlying
hydrologic processes. It requires the least input data.

Q12. Assume any conceptual model of your interest and describe the runoff generation
mechanisms

HBV model

This model is an example of semi distributed conceptual model (Bergstrom, 1976). The entire
catchment is divided into sub catchments, which are further divided into different elevation and
vegetation zones. It runs on daily and monthly rainfall data, air temperature and evaporation. Air
temperature data are used for calculating snow accumulation. The general water balance
equation used is:

Where P is precipitation, E is evaporation, Q is runoff , SP is the snow pack, SM is the soil

moisture, UZ and LZ are the upper and lower ground water zone and lakes represent the volume
of lake. Different model versions are now available and are used in different countries with

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

different climatic conditions. Degree day method is used to simulate snow accumulation and
snow melt. Ground water recharge, runoff and actual evaporation are simulated as functions of
actual water storage. HBV light is a new version of HBV model and it uses a warm-up period, in
which the state variables will get its appropriate values as per meteorological data and parameter
values.

Q13. How does the parameter representing the major hydrological processes in conceptual
models be specified?

The parameters representing the major hydrological models are specified by

i. By observing field data (if we have full information about the area); it includes the study
of the general characteristic of the catchment.
ii. By revising (reading) different review (literature) if we didn’t have full information about
the study area.

Q14. A conceptual hydrological model has been developed by assuming a single soil moisture
stack. The water balance component of the model is conceptualized with the equation given
below. The boundary conditions of the soil moisture storage are given as; the upper boundary
condition, FC=200, the lower boundary condition, WP=100, estimate the discharge at the outlet
of the watershed. The area of the watershed is 250 sq. km

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Where S is the soil moisture storage, R is area rainfall over the watershed, Q is the surface
runoff, Et is the actual evaporation from the watershed, P is the percolation amount and is
assumed to be negligible. t is the time step of computation. All the units are in mm. It is also
assumed that all available water above the FC becomes runoff. The actual evaporation, ET,
varies as a function of the soil moisture availability as in the equation.

The data

i. If the pulse response functions of the watershed is given as 0.2 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, estimate
the discharge at the outlet of the watershed.
ii. Comment on the overall result
iii. The next two days rainfall amount as received from radar forecast is issued as 10, and
80 mm respectively, what will be the forecasted floods in these days.

Note that all available rainfalls (R) above FC become runoff (Q)

Das R(mm) PET( Soil moisture Available Runoff ET(mm)=PET*((St-WP/(FC-

(1) (2) mm) (mm) water(mm) (mm) (6) WP))^1.5
(3) St+1=St+Rt- (5) (2)+(4) (5)-FC-ET (7)
Qt-Pt (4)

1 20 3 200 220 17 =3*((200-100)/(200-

100))^1.5=3

2 13 2 =200+20-17- 213-2=211 11 =2*((200-100)/(200-

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3 =200 100))^1.5=2

3 16 4 =200+13- 216-4=212 12 =4*((200-100)/(200-

11--2=200 100))^1.5=4

4 20 4 =200+16-12- 220-4=216 16 =4*((200-100)/(200-

4=200 100))^1.5=4

5 0 5 =200+20-4- 200+0-5=195 0 =5*((200-100)/(200-

16 = 200 100))^1.5=5

6 10 4 =200+0-0- 195+10- 1.3 =4*((195-100)/(200-

5=195 3.7=201.3 100))^1.5=3.7

7 21 3 =195+10- 200+21-3=218 18 =3*((200-100)/(200-

1.3-3.7=200 100))^1.5=3

8 22 3 =200+21-18- 200+22-3= 19 =3*((200-100)/(200-

3 =200 100))^1.5=3

9 33 2 =200+22-19- 200+33-2=31 31 =2*((200-100)/(200-

3=200 100))^1.5=2

10 60 3 =200+33-31- 200+60-3=257 57 =3((200-100)/(200-

2=200 100))^1.5=3

11 0 3 =200+60-57- 200+0-3=197 0 =3*((200-100)/(200-

3 =200 100))^1.5=3

12 0 3 =200-0-0- 197+0-3=194 0 =3*((197-100)/(200-

3=197 100))^1.5=3

To tal of S =2359.165 =182.3mm

Q=sum of runoff*area=0.18664m*250*1000000m2=45575000m3 or
Q=46660000/ (12*24*3600) =44m3/s
i. If the pulse response functions of the watershed is given as 0.2 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, estimate
the discharge at the outlet of the watershed.
Time Rain Ordinates of Ordinates Ordinates Ordinates Cumulative
(days) fall 1st hydro of 2nd of 3rd of 4th hydrograph

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(mm) graph hydro hydro hydro

graph graph graph
0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
1 20*0.2=4 4
20
2 13*0.2=2.6 0.4*20=8 10.6
13
3 3.2 13*0.4=5.2 20*0.2=4 12.4
16
4 4 16*0.4=6.4 13*0.2=2. 2 15
20
6
5 0 8 3.2 1.3 12.5
0
6 2 0 4 1.6 7.6
10
7 4.2 4 0 2 10.2
21
8 4.4 8.4 2 0 14.8
22
9 6.6 8.8 4.2 1 20.6
33
10 12 13.2 4.4 2.1 31.7
60
11 0 24 6.6 2.2 32.8
0
12 0 0 12 3.3 15.3
0
13 0 0 6 6
14 0 0 0
15 0 0
Total 193.5
Q=0.1935m*area=0.1935*250*1000000m2=47475000mm3=47475000/ (12*24*3600) =46m3/s
ii. Comment on the overall result
Answer. Almost they have the same result except due to different numerical error.
iii. The next two days rainfall amount as received from radar forecast is issued as 10, and
80 mm respectively, what will be the forecasted floods in these days.
Time Rain Ordinates Ordinates Ordinates Ordinates of Cumulative
(days) fall of 1st hydro of 2nd of 3rd 4th hydro hydrograph
(mm) graph hydro hydro graph
graph graph
0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
1 10 2 2

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

2 80 16 4 20
3 32 2 34
4 16 1 17
5 8 8
Cumulative = 81
Q=0.081* area=0.081*250*1000000m2=20250000/ (2*24*3600) =117.1875m3/s
Assignment two

Q1. What is the role of distributed (physical based) hydrological models in water Resources
management?

Physically based distributed models of the hydrological cycle can in principle be applied to
almost any kind of hydrological problem. These models are based on our understanding of the
physics of the hydrological processes which control catchment response and use physically based
equations to describe these processes. Some typical examples of field applications include;
 Study of effect of catchment changes,
 prediction of behavior of ungauged catchment,
 Spatial variability in catchment inputs and outputs,
 Movement of pollutants and sediment etc.

Hydrological modelling is a powerful technique of hydrologic system investigation for both the
research hydrologists’ system investigation for both the research hydrologists and the practicing
water resources engineers involved in the planning and development of integrated approach for
management of water resources.

Q2. What are the major hydrological processes taken in to account in distributed (physically
based) hydrological models? Mention all possible processes and give equation for two processes
only.
Fully distributed models generally discretize a river basin as a rectangular grid mesh or square
grid elements of constant sizes, irrespective of the terrain features. These models use spatially
distributed parameters of physical relevance is usually expected to provide more accurate
hydrologic predictions than the conceptual rainfall runoff models. Distributed physically based
models require excessive input data and parameters and hence are difficult to apply practically.
The major hydrological process taken in to account in distributed hydrological models are
following processes:

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

 Evapotranspiration,
 Precipitation,
 Interception,
 Infiltration,
 Percolation,
 Runoff, and
 Storage.
Evapotranspiration
Evapotranspiration component calculates actual evaporation from soil, canopy storage, and open
water, sublimation from snow and transpiration from vegetation.
Hydrologic models ISBA, MISBA, SLURP, etc uses energy balance and aerodynamic
method to calculate evapotranspiration. In energy balance method evaporation rate is given by
1
Er = ( Rn−Hs−G)
Lvρw

Where Lv is the latent heat of vaporization, ρw is the density of water, Rn is the net radiation,
Hs is the sensible heat flux and G is the ground heat flux.
Surface runoff
This component includes three physical processes: accumulation of water contributing surface
runoff (known as overland flow), routing of overland flow to the nearest stream channel and
routing of channel flow to the basin outlet. Surface runoff can occur in two ways: first, when the
rate of precipitation is less than the infiltration capacity and runoff occurs because the soil
becomes saturated (knows as Dunne runoff); second, when rate of precipitation exceeds the
infiltration capacity of the soil (known as Horton runoff). Distributed hydrologic model based
on variable contributing area concept (e.g. TOPMODEL, TOPNET) express the topographic
index in distribution function form and thus generate hydrologically similar area based on similar
values of topographic index. Contributing areas having the local water table above the surface
considered as saturated zone and any rainfall falling upon that zone is taken to runoff. Some
physically based distributed hydrologic models (e.g. ISBA, MISBA, and LISTFLOOD).
β
x
(
F(x) = 1- 1−
xmax ¿ )
¿ ; 0 ≪ x ≪ xmax

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

Where β is an empirical parameter and F(x) is the cumulative probability distribution of x

completely defined by the maximum (xmax) and mean moisture capacity of the soil (x ave). The
scheme acts like a multi-bucket model in which the distribution of buckets size is defined by the
Xinanjiang distribution (e.g. Zhao, 1992) and when a bucket fills its capacity surface runoff
occurs.
Q3. One of the known distributed (physically based) hydrological model used the McKenna and
nutter (1983) canopy Interception (I) equation for determining the amount of effective
precipitation falling to the ground (after interception) for three groups of forest plants as follows
I= (p-tf)*r for tf>0
I= (p)*r for tf<0
Where, r= LIA/3 for LIA<= 3
r= 1 for LIA>=3
tf = 0.3p-0.015 for pine and mixed hard wood
tf= 0.31p-0.020 for short leafed conifers
tf=0.37p-0.0015 for mixed hard wood
where p is precipitation in cm, I is interception in cm. estimate the amount of rainfall available
for generation of runoff and soil moisture replenishment?
Discuss the result in the context of application of DPHM for detection of land use change
Data

Dates 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(cm) 2 1 6 4 0 1 7 1 6 5
For pine forest 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 2 2
Dates 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(cm) 2 1 6 4 0 1 7 1 6 5
For pine 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 2 2
forest
r=LIA/3 0.167 0.2 0.267 0.333 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.667 0.667
tf=0.3p- 0.585 0.285 1.785 1.185 -0.015 0.285 2.085 0.285 1.785 1.485
0.015
I=(p-tf)*r 0.236 0.143 1.125 0.937 0 0.358 2.949 0.429 2.811 2.345
or r=1

Sum of I                   11.334

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

SUM OF P 33                  
rainfall available for runoff and soil moisture replenishment=sum of p-sum of I = 33-11.334=
21.666cm

If the pine forest is completely cleared what will be on the runoff generation
If the pine forest is completely cleared it will increase the amount of runoff generated from the
area.

Referring to the above figure (figure1) and the following table of pulse response ordinates,
estimate the outflow discharge at S4 using unconstrained multiple input-single output linear
model.

For S1

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6 th 7th 8th 9th

no rainfall in (mm) ordinate ordinate ordinate ordinate orditate ordinate ordinate ordinate ordinate runoff
0.01 0.04 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.09 0.05 0.01
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 10 0.1 0.1
2 15 0.15 0.4 0.55
3 20 0.2 0.6 1 1.8
4 0.8 1.5 4 6.3
5 2 6 3 11
6 8 4.5 1 13.5
7 6 1.5 0.9 8.4
8 2 1.35 0.5 3.85
9 1.8 0.75 0.1 2.65
10 1 0.15 1.15
11 0.2 0.2
total runoff 49.5

For S2
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6 th 7th 8th
no rainfall in (mm) ordinate ordinate ordinate ordinate orditate ordinate ordinate ordinate runoff
0.02 0.05 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.09 0.05
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 7 0.14 0.14
2 10 0.2 0.35 0.55
3 6 0.12 0.5 1.4 2.02
4 0.3 2 3.5 5.8
5 1.2 5 2.1 8.3
6 3 3 0.7 6.7
7 1.8 1 0.63 3.43
8 0.6 0.9 0.35 1.85
9 0.54 0.5 1.04
0.3 0.3
total runoff 30.13

For S3
On S3 we have gauged data so, we simply sum up the result, which is=40+30+20=90

For intervening catchment 1

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
no rainfall in (mm) ordinate ordinate ordinate ordinate runoff
0.4 0.25 0.1 0.05
1 2 3 4 5
1 4 1.6 1.6
2 13 5.2 1 6.2
3 4.5 1.8 3.25 0.4 5.45
4 1.125 1.3 0.2 2.625
5 0.45 0.65 1.1
6 0.225 0.225
7 total runoff 17.2

Total runoff at S4 is the sum of S1, S2, S3 and intervening catchment

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ASSIGNMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND MODELLING CONCEPTS

S4= S1+S2+S3+Intervening catchment

S4= 49.5+30.13+90+17.2 = 186.83 m3/s

25