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org/wiki/Agent-based_model

Agent-based model
An agent-based model (ABM) is a class of computational models for simulating the actions and
interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or
groups) with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole. It combines elements of game
theory, complex systems, emergence, computational sociology, multi-agent systems, and evolutionary
programming. Monte Carlo methods are used to introduce randomness. Particularly within ecology,
ABMs are also called individual-based models (IBMs),[1] and individuals within IBMs may be
simpler than fully autonomous agents within ABMs. A review of recent literature on individual-based
models, agent-based models, and multiagent systems shows that ABMs are used on non-computing
related scientific domains including biology, ecology and social science.[2] Agent-based modeling is
related to, but distinct from, the concept of multi-agent systems or multi-agent simulation in
that the goal of ABM is to search for explanatory insight into the collective behavior of agents obeying
simple rules, typically in natural systems, rather than in designing agents or solving specific practical
or engineering problems.[2]

Agent-based models are a kind of microscale model[3] that simulate the simultaneous operations and
interactions of multiple agents in an attempt to re-create and predict the appearance of complex
phenomena. The process is one of emergence, which some express as "the whole is greater than the
sum of its parts". In other words, higher-level system properties emerge from the interactions of
lower-level subsystems. Or, macro-scale state changes emerge from micro-scale agent behaviors. Or,
simple behaviors (meaning rules followed by agents) generate complex behaviors (meaning state
changes at the whole system level).

Individual agents are typically characterized as boundedly rational, presumed to be acting in what
they perceive as their own interests, such as reproduction, economic benefit, or social status,[4] using
heuristics or simple decision-making rules. ABM agents may experience "learning", adaptation, and
reproduction.[5]

Most agent-based models are composed of: (1) numerous agents specified at various scales (typically
referred to as agent-granularity); (2) decision-making heuristics; (3) learning rules or adaptive
processes; (4) an interaction topology; and (5) an environment. ABMs are typically implemented as
computer simulations, either as custom software, or via ABM toolkits, and this software can be then
used to test how changes in individual behaviors will affect the system's emerging overall behavior.

Contents
History
Early developments
1970s and 1980s: the first models
1990s: expansion
2000s and later
Theory
Framework

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Applications
In biology
In epidemiology
In business, technology and network theory
In economics and social sciences
Organizational ABM: agent-directed simulation
Self-driving cars
Implementation
Integration with other modeling forms
Verification and validation
See also
References
General
External links
Articles/general information
Simulation models

History
The idea of agent-based modeling was developed as a relatively simple concept in the late 1940s.
Since it requires computation-intensive procedures, it did not become widespread until the 1990s.

Early developments

The history of the agent-based model can be traced back to the Von Neumann machine, a theoretical
machine capable of reproduction. The device von Neumann proposed would follow precisely detailed
instructions to fashion a copy of itself. The concept was then built upon by von Neumann's friend
Stanislaw Ulam, also a mathematician; Ulam suggested that the machine be built on paper, as a
collection of cells on a grid. The idea intrigued von Neumann, who drew it up—creating the first of the
devices later termed cellular automata. Another advance was introduced by the mathematician John
Conway. He constructed the well-known Game of Life. Unlike von Neumann's machine, Conway's
Game of Life operated by simple rules in a virtual world in the form of a 2-dimensional checkerboard.

The Simula programming language, developed in the mid 1960s and widely implemented by the early
1970s, was the first framework for automating step-by-step agent simulations.

1970s and 1980s: the first models

One of the earliest agent-based models in concept was Thomas Schelling's segregation model,[6]
which was discussed in his paper "Dynamic Models of Segregation" in 1971. Though Schelling
originally used coins and graph paper rather than computers, his models embodied the basic concept
of agent-based models as autonomous agents interacting in a shared environment with an observed
aggregate, emergent outcome.

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In the early 1980s, Robert Axelrod hosted a tournament of Prisoner's Dilemma strategies and had
them interact in an agent-based manner to determine a winner. Axelrod would go on to develop many
other agent-based models in the field of political science that examine phenomena from
ethnocentrism to the dissemination of culture.[7] By the late 1980s, Craig Reynolds' work on flocking
models contributed to the development of some of the first biological agent-based models that
contained social characteristics. He tried to model the reality of lively biological agents, known as
artificial life, a term coined by Christopher Langton.

The first use of the word "agent" and a definition as it is currently used today is hard to track down.
One candidate appears to be John Holland and John H. Miller's 1991 paper "Artificial Adaptive
Agents in Economic Theory",[8] based on an earlier conference presentation of theirs.

At the same time, during the 1980s, social scientists, mathematicians, operations researchers, and a
scattering of people from other disciplines developed Computational and Mathematical Organization
Theory (CMOT). This field grew as a special interest group of The Institute of Management Sciences
(TIMS) and its sister society, the Operations Research Society of America (ORSA).

1990s: expansion

The 1990s were especially notable for the expansion of ABM within the social sciences, one notable
effort was the large-scale ABM, Sugarscape, developed by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell to
simulate and explore the role of social phenomena such as seasonal migrations, pollution, sexual
reproduction, combat, and transmission of disease and even culture.[9] Other notable 1990s
developments included Carnegie Mellon University's Kathleen Carley ABM,[10] to explore the co-
evolution of social networks and culture. During this 1990s timeframe Nigel Gilbert published the
first textbook on Social Simulation: Simulation for the social scientist (1999) and established a journal
from the perspective of social sciences: the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
(JASSS). Other than JASSS, agent-based models of any discipline are within scope of SpringerOpen
journal Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling (CASM).[11]

Through the mid-1990s, the social sciences thread of ABM began to focus on such issues as designing
effective teams, understanding the communication required for organizational effectiveness, and the
behavior of social networks. CMOT—later renamed Computational Analysis of Social and
Organizational Systems (CASOS)—incorporated more and more agent-based modeling. Samuelson
(2000) is a good brief overview of the early history,[12] and Samuelson (2005) and Samuelson and
Macal (2006) trace the more recent developments.[13][14]

In the late 1990s, the merger of TIMS and ORSA to form INFORMS, and the move by INFORMS from
two meetings each year to one, helped to spur the CMOT group to form a separate society, the North
American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Sciences (NAACSOS). Kathleen
Carley was a major contributor, especially to models of social networks, obtaining National Science
Foundation funding for the annual conference and serving as the first President of NAACSOS. She
was succeeded by David Sallach of the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory, and
then by Michael Prietula of Emory University. At about the same time NAACSOS began, the European
Social Simulation Association (ESSA) and the Pacific Asian Association for Agent-Based Approach in
Social Systems Science (PAAA), counterparts of NAACSOS, were organized. As of 2013, these three
organizations collaborate internationally. The First World Congress on Social Simulation was held
under their joint sponsorship in Kyoto, Japan, in August 2006. The Second World Congress was held
in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., in July 2008, with George Mason University

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taking the lead role in local arrangements.

2000s and later

More recently, Ron Sun developed methods for basing agent-based simulation on models of human
cognition, known as cognitive social simulation.[15] Bill McKelvey, Suzanne Lohmann, Dario Nardi,
Dwight Read and others at UCLA have also made significant contributions in organizational behavior
and decision-making. Since 2001, UCLA has arranged a conference at Lake Arrowhead, California,
that has become another major gathering point for practitioners in this field.

Theory
Most computational modeling research describes systems in equilibrium or as moving between
equilibria. Agent-based modeling, however, using simple rules, can result in different sorts of complex
and interesting behavior. The three ideas central to agent-based models are agents as objects,
emergence, and complexity.

Agent-based models consist of dynamically interacting rule-based agents. The systems within which
they interact can create real-world-like complexity. Typically agents are situated in space and time
and reside in networks or in lattice-like neighborhoods. The location of the agents and their
responsive behavior are encoded in algorithmic form in computer programs. In some cases, though
not always, the agents may be considered as intelligent and purposeful. In ecological ABM (often
referred to as "individual-based models" in ecology), agents may, for example, be trees in forest, and
would not be considered intelligent, although they may be "purposeful" in the sense of optimizing
access to a resource (such as water). The modeling process is best described as inductive. The modeler
makes those assumptions thought most relevant to the situation at hand and then watches
phenomena emerge from the agents' interactions. Sometimes that result is an equilibrium. Sometimes
it is an emergent pattern. Sometimes, however, it is an unintelligible mangle.

In some ways, agent-based models complement traditional analytic methods. Where analytic methods
enable humans to characterize the equilibria of a system, agent-based models allow the possibility of
generating those equilibria. This generative contribution may be the most mainstream of the potential
benefits of agent-based modeling. Agent-based models can explain the emergence of higher-order
patterns—network structures of terrorist organizations and the Internet, power-law distributions in
the sizes of traffic jams, wars, and stock-market crashes, and social segregation that persists despite
populations of tolerant people. Agent-based models also can be used to identify lever points, defined
as moments in time in which interventions have extreme consequences, and to distinguish among
types of path dependency.

Rather than focusing on stable states, many models consider a system's robustness—the ways that
complex systems adapt to internal and external pressures so as to maintain their functionalities. The
task of harnessing that complexity requires consideration of the agents themselves—their diversity,
connectedness, and level of interactions.

Framework

Recent work on the Modeling and simulation of Complex Adaptive Systems has demonstrated the
need for combining agent-based and complex network based models.[16][17][18] describe a framework

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consisting of four levels of developing models of complex adaptive systems described using several
example multidisciplinary case studies:

1. Complex Network Modeling Level for developing models using interaction data of various system
components.
2. Exploratory Agent-based Modeling Level for developing agent-based models for assessing the
feasibility of further research. This can e.g. be useful for developing proof-of-concept models such
as for funding applications without requiring an extensive learning curve for the researchers.
3. Descriptive Agent-based Modeling (DREAM) for developing descriptions of agent-based models
by means of using templates and complex network-based models. Building DREAM models
allows model comparison across scientific disciplines.
4. Validated agent-based modeling using Virtual Overlay Multiagent system (VOMAS) for the
development of verified and validated models in a formal manner.

Other methods of describing agent-based models include code templates[19] and text-based methods
such as the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, and Design Details) protocol.[20]

The role of the environment where agents live, both macro and micro,[21] is also becoming an
important factor in agent-based modelling and simulation work. Simple environment affords simple
agents, but complex environments generates diversity of behaviour.[22]

Applications

In biology

Agent-based modeling has been used extensively in biology, including the analysis of the spread of
epidemics,[23] and the threat of biowarfare, biological applications including population dynamics,[24]
stochastic gene expression,[25] plant-animal interactions,[26] vegetation ecology,[27] landscape
diversity,[28] sociobiology[29],the growth and decline of ancient civilizations, evolution of ethnocentric
behavior,[30] forced displacement/migration,[31] language choice dynamics,[32] cognitive modeling,
and biomedical applications including modeling 3D breast tissue formation/morphogenesis,[33] the
effects of ionizing radiation on mammary stem cell subpopulation dynamics,[34] inflammation,[35] [36]
and the human immune system.[37] Agent-based models have also been used for developing decision
support systems such as for breast cancer.[38] Agent-based models are increasingly being used to
model pharmacological systems in early stage and pre-clinical research to aid in drug development
and gain insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori.[39] Military applications
have also been evaluated.[40] Moreover, agent-based models have been recently employed to study
molecular-level biological systems.[41][42][43]

In epidemiology

Agent-based models now complement traditional compartmental models, the usual type of
epidemiological models. ABMs have been shown to be superior to compartmental models in regard to
the accuracy of predictions.[44][45] Recently, ABMs such as CovidSim by epidemiologist Neil
Ferguson, have been used to inform public health (nonpharmaceutical) interventions against the
spread of SARS-CoV-2.[46] Epidemiological ABMs have been criticized for simplifying and unrealistic
assumptions.[47][48] Still, they can be useful in informing decisions regarding mitigation and

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suppression measures in cases when ABMs are accurately calibrated.[49]

In business, technology and network theory

Agent-based models have been used since the mid-1990s to solve a variety of business and technology
problems. Examples of applications include marketing,[50] organizational behaviour and
cognition,[51] team working,[52] supply chain optimization and logistics, modeling of consumer
behavior, including word of mouth, social network effects, distributed computing, workforce
management, and portfolio management. They have also been used to analyze traffic congestion.[53]

Recently, agent based modelling and simulation has been applied to various domains such as studying
the impact of publication venues by researchers in the computer science domain (journals versus
conferences).[54] In addition, ABMs have been used to simulate information delivery in ambient
assisted environments.[55] A November 2016 article in arXiv analyzed an agent based simulation of
posts spread in Facebook.[56] In the domain of peer-to-peer, ad-hoc and other self-organizing and
complex networks, the usefulness of agent based modeling and simulation has been shown.[57] The
use of a computer science-based formal specification framework coupled with wireless sensor
networks and an agent-based simulation has recently been demonstrated.[58]

Agent based evolutionary search or algorithm is a new research topic for solving complex
optimization problems.[59]

In economics and social sciences

Prior to, and in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, interest has grown in ABMs as possible tools for
economic analysis.[60][61] ABMs do not assume the economy can achieve equilibrium and
"representative agents" are replaced by agents with diverse, dynamic, and interdependent behavior
including herding. ABMs take a "bottom-up" approach and can generate extremely complex and
volatile simulated economies. ABMs can represent unstable systems with crashes and booms that
develop out of non-linear (disproportionate) responses to proportionally small changes.[62] A July
2010 article in The Economist looked at ABMs as alternatives to DSGE models.[62] The journal
Nature also encouraged agent-based modeling with an editorial that suggested ABMs can do a better
job of representing financial markets and other economic complexities than standard models[63]
along with an essay by J. Doyne Farmer and Duncan Foley that argued ABMs could fulfill both the
desires of Keynes to represent a complex economy and of Robert Lucas to construct models based on
microfoundations.[64] Farmer and Foley pointed to progress that has been made using ABMs to
model parts of an economy, but argued for the creation of a very large model that incorporates low
level models.[65] By modeling a complex system of analysts based on three distinct behavioral profiles
– imitating, anti-imitating, and indifferent – financial markets were simulated to high accuracy.
Results showed a correlation between network morphology and the stock market index.[66] However,
the ABM approach has been criticized for its lack of robustness between models, where similar
models can yield very different results.[67][68]

ABMs have been deployed in architecture and urban planning to evaluate design and to simulate
pedestrian flow in the urban environment[69] and the examination of public policy applications to
land-use.[70] There is also a growing field of socio-economic analysis of infrastructure investment
impact using ABM's ability to discern systemic impacts upon a socio-economic network.[71]

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Organizational ABM: agent-directed simulation

The agent-directed simulation (ADS) metaphor distinguishes between two categories, namely
"Systems for Agents" and "Agents for Systems."[72] Systems for Agents (sometimes referred to as
agents systems) are systems implementing agents for the use in engineering, human and social
dynamics, military applications, and others. Agents for Systems are divided in two subcategories.
Agent-supported systems deal with the use of agents as a support facility to enable computer
assistance in problem solving or enhancing cognitive capabilities. Agent-based systems focus on the
use of agents for the generation of model behavior in a system evaluation (system studies and
analyses).

Self-driving cars

Waymo has created a multi-agent simulation environment Carcraft to test algorithms for self-driving
cars.[73][74] It simulates traffic interactions between human drivers, pedestrians and automated
vehicles. People's behavior is imitated by artificial agents based on data of real human behavior.

Implementation
Many ABM frameworks are designed for serial von-Neumann computer architectures, limiting the
speed and scalability of implemented models. Since emergent behavior in large-scale ABMs is
dependent of population size,[75] scalability restrictions may hinder model validation.[76] Such
limitations have mainly been addressed using distributed computing, with frameworks such as Repast
HPC[77] specifically dedicated to these type of implementations. While such approaches map well to
cluster and supercomputer architectures, issues related to communication and synchronization,
[78][79] as well as deployment complexity,[80] remain potential obstacles for their widespread
adoption.

A recent development is the use of data-parallel algorithms on Graphics Processing Units GPUs for
ABM simulation.[75][81][82] The extreme memory bandwidth combined with the sheer number
crunching power of multi-processor GPUs has enabled simulation of millions of agents at tens of
frames per second.

Integration with other modeling forms

Since Agent-Based Modeling is more of a modeling framework than a particular piece of software or
platform, it has often been used in conjunction with other modeling forms. For instance, agent-based
models have also been combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This provides a useful
combination where the ABM serves as a process model and the GIS system can provide a model of
pattern.[83] Similarly, Social Network Analysis (SNA) tools and agent-based models are sometimes
integrated, where the ABM is used to simulate the dynamics on the network while the SNA tool
models and analyzes the network of interactions.[84]

Verification and validation

Verification and validation (V&V) of simulation models is extremely important.[85][86] Verification

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involves making sure the implemented model matches the conceptual model, whereas validation
ensures that the implemented model has some relationship to the real-world. Face validation,
sensitivity analysis, calibration, and statistical validation are different aspects of validation.[87] A
discrete-event simulation framework approach for the validation of agent-based systems has been
proposed.[88] A comprehensive resource on empirical validation of agent-based models can be found
here.[89]

As an example of V&V technique, consider VOMAS (virtual overlay multi-agent system),[90] a

software engineering based approach, where a virtual overlay multi-agent system is developed
alongside the agent-based model. Muazi et al. also provide an example of using VOMAS for
verification and validation of a forest fire simulation model.[91][92]

See also
Agent-based computational economics Evolutionary algorithm
Agent-based model in biology Flocking
Agent-based social simulation (ABSS) Internet bot
Artificial society Kinetic exchange models of markets
Boids Multi-agent system
Comparison of agent-based modeling Simulated reality
software Social complexity
Complex system Social simulation
Complex adaptive system Sociophysics
Computational sociology Software agent
Conway's Game of Life Swarming behaviour
Dynamic network analysis Web-based simulation
Emergence TOTREP

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External links

Articles/general information
Agent-based models of social networks, java applets. (https://web.archive.org/web/201105160727
44/http://cmol.nbi.dk/models/)
On-Line Guide for Newcomers to Agent-Based Modeling in the Social Sciences (https://www2.eco
n.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/abmread.htm)
Introduction to Agent-based Modeling and Simulation (http://www-unix.mcs.anl.gov/~leyffer/listn/sl
ides-06/MacalNorth.pdf). Argonne National Laboratory, November 29, 2006.
Agent-based models in Ecology – Using computer models as theoretical tools to analyze complex
ecological systems (http://www.abm-ecology.org)
Network for Computational Modeling in the Social and Ecological Sciences' Agent Based
Modeling FAQ (https://www.comses.net/about/faq/)
Multiagent Information Systems (https://web.archive.org/web/20081015142701/http://www.irisel.c
om/~jmgomez/IT/doctorate/taller_resumen2.htm) – Article on the convergence of SOA, BPM and
Multi-Agent Technology in the domain of the Enterprise Information Systems. Jose Manuel
Gomez Alvarez, Artificial Intelligence, Technical University of Madrid – 2006
Artificial Life Framework (https://web.archive.org/web/20021121141843/http://artificiallife.org/)
Article providing methodology for moving real world human behaviors into a simulation model
where agent behaviors are represented (https://archive.is/20130128163823/http://inderscience.m
etapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&eissn=1740-2131&volume=4&issue=3&spage=264)
Agent-based Modeling Resources (https://web.archive.org/web/20110811053902/http://agent-bas
ed-models.com/), an information hub for modelers, methods, and philosophy for agent-based
modeling
An Agent-Based Model of the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010, with Policy Implications (http://ssrn.co
m/abstract=2336772), Tommi A. Vuorenmaa (Valo Research and Trading), Liang Wang
(University of Helsinki - Department of Computer Science), October, 2013

Simulation models
Multi-agent Meeting Scheduling System Model by Qasim Siddique (http://ccl.northwestern.edu/net

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logo/models/community/Updated%20Meeting%20Scheduling)
Multi-firm market simulation by Valentino Piana (http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/essays/fixe
dvar.htm)
List of Covid-19 simulation models

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