HDM-4 Modeling Framework

HDM-4 System Architecture

Data Managers Analysis Tools

Road Vehicle Road HDM Project Program Strategy

Network Fleet Works Config .

HDM - 4 MODELLING FRAMEWORK

File Converter Core Data Models
Vehicle Fleets
Road Networks
transfer data Road Works
to external Projects
Programmes RDWE RUE SEE
systems
Strategies

RDWE : Road Deterioration and Works Effects

External
Systems RUE : Road User Effects
Databases, SEE : Social and Environmental Effects
PMS, etc. PMS : Pavement Management System

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HDM-4 Analytical Framework The Concept of Life Cycle Analysis

 Based on the concept of life cycle analysis

 Predicts road network performance as a function of:
Poor
Traffic volumes and loading
Maintenance Standard
Road pavement type and strength
Roughness

Maintenance standards Pavement

Environment / Climate Performance
Curve Model libraries
 Quantifies benefits to road users from: Rehabilitation can be used in
other systems
Good
Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC)
Time (years) or Traffic Loading
Reduced road user travel times
Decrease in number of accidents
Environmental effects

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Life Cycle Analysis Impact of Road Condition

Input Predict Road

Data Deterioration Heavy Truck
Road User Costs ($/veh-km)

Bus
Predict Road Repeat
Work Effects for all
years
Pickup/utility
VOC, Accident
& Time costs Car

Rickshaw

Discount Annual Output

Good Road Condition (IRI) Poor
Costs & Compare NPV, IRR,..

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

INPUTS MODEL
OUTPUTS
Vehicle type, volume, growth,
loading, physical parameters,
Start of analysis loop
HDM-4 Workspace
terrain, precipitation, road
geometry, pavement characteristics,
unit costs
Cracking, ravelling, pot-holes, rut
Pavement type, strength, age, Road Deterioration depth, faulting (paved); gravel
condition, and ESAL thickness (unpaved); roughness

Fuel, lubricant, tyres, maintenance,

Road geometry and roughness; fixed costs, speed, travel time, road
vehicle speed, type; congestion Road User Effects user costs
parameters; unit costs

Reset cracking, ravelling, pot-holes,

rut depth (paved); gravel
Road works standards and thickness (unpaved); roughness,
strategies Works Effects works quantities and agency costs

Levels of emissions and energy

Road geometry and surface texture, Social and used, and number of accidents
vehicle characteristics
Environmental Effects

Developmental, accident, Costs and benefits, including

environmental, and other Economic Analysis exogenous benefits
exogenous costs and benefits

Total costs by component; net

present values and rates of return
Return to start by section
of analysis loop
REPRODUCED from HDM 4 Figure B2.1 HDM-4 Life Cycle Analysis Concept

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Network Elements

Sections
lengths of road that are homogeneous in
terms of physical attributes
basic unit of analysis in HDM-4
Road Network Links
Group of road sections
Network & Sub-networks
Group of road links in one geographic or
administrative region or functional class
Nodes (intersections or junctions)

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Road Section Data

General
ID, inventory, traffic, road use and class
Geometry
Pavement characteristics Vehicle Fleet
Road condition
Calibration parameters

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Representative Vehicles Vehicles

Three levels:
Purpose: to group vehicles with similar Categories:
characteristics to simplify input Motorised transport (MT)
Method of grouping: Non-motorised transport (NMT)
composite vehicle - average characteristics Classes
of vehicles within the group
MT: motorcycles, cars, buses, trucks,
actual vehicle - actual characteristics of
utilities
most common vehicle of the group
NMT: pedestrians, carts, bicycles
Types
E.g. small, medium or large car

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Motorised Traffic Non-Motorised Traffic

Motorised
Non-Motorised

Motorcycles Passenger cars Utilities Trucks Buses

Pedestrian Bicycle Cycle-Rickshaw Animal Cart Farm Tractor

Motorcycles Small car Light delivery Light truck Minibus

Pedestrian Bicycle Passenger Animal Cart Farm Tractor
Medium car Light goods Heavy truck Light bus (Commercial)

Large car 4 wheel drive Medium truck Medium bus Freight

(Commercial)
Articulated truck Heavy bus
Freight
Category Coach
Category (Private)
Class Class
Type Type

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Vehicle Data

General
Name, category, class, type
Utilisation
Performance
Traffic
Loading characteristics
Unit costs
RUE Calibration parameters

Vehicle fleet data manager

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Uses of traffic data in HDM-4 Traffic Categories

Pavement deterioration  Normal traffic

Existing traffic and expected growth on the
Vehicle operating costs
road both with and without the investment
Travel time  Diverted traffic
Quantities of vehicle exhaust emissions Traffic diverted to the road as a result of
the investment
Calculation of energy use
 Generated traffic
Economic Analysis
New traffic induced by the investment

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Volume, composition & growth rates Axle loading

Volume - AADT for MT & NMT For each representative vehicle

Number of axles
Traffic mix – AADT for each vehicle type
Equivalent standard axles
Growth - for specified periods affects paved road deterioration
Annual percentage increase % Number of light vehicles (< 3.5 tons)
Annual increment of AADT Number of heavy vehicles
Actual AADT
affects deterioration of unsealed roads
for each section

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Traffic Interactions Non-Motorised Traffic

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Traffic interactions

Passenger car space equivalence

Speed flow types

Road Deterioration
Traffic flow patterns

…….More later on

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Pavement Defects modelled in HDM-4 Initiation and Progression

Bituminous Concrete Unsealed 100

90
Drainage Cracking Gravel Loss
80
Cracking Joint Spalling Roughness
70
Affected Area (percent)

Rutting Faulting 60
Initiation Progression
Period Period
Ravelling Failures 50

Potholing Roughness 40

Edge Break 30

20
Roughness
10
Surface Texture
0

Skid Resistance Age of Surfacing

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Effect of Different Works Standards

Condition

Reconstruct

Overlay Road User Effects

Traffic / Time

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Road User Effects Models Social & Environmental Effects Models

 Vehicle free speeds

 Speed-flow and acceleration effects Energy Consumption
 Vehicle operating costs Vehicle emissions
fuel, oil, tyres, spare parts Safety
vehicle utilisation and capital costs
 Travel time costs
Passengers and cargo
 Accident costs

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Exogenous Benefits and Costs

 Due to other road related investments

diversion routes, bridge repair, slope
stabilisation, etc.
 Development benefits
Exogenous Benefits and Costs agricultural, commercial, industrial, etc.
 Accessibility benefits
 Environmental impacts (pollution,
ecological)
 Social & resettlement impacts

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Section Alternatives

 The basic unit of HDM-4 economic analysis

 One of mutually exclusive works
alternatives specified for a road section
 Defined by:
Section Alternatives
description
set of maintenance and/or improvement
standards, combined logically
optional generated traffic
optional exogenous benefits and costs

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Section Alternative Impact Analysis Loops

Define input data

Section Alternative X Loop A for each section
Loop B for each section alternative
Loop C for each analysis year
Maintenance Std. 1 Maintenance Std. N Improvement Std. 1
Calculate traffic over the road section
Model annual effects and costs
Store result for evaluation and reporting
Works Item 1 + Design + Intervention + Cost + Effects End loop C
Works Item 2 + Design + Intervention + Cost + Effects
:
End loop B
Works Item N + Design + Intervention + Cost + Effects End loop A

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Comparison of Alternatives Example

Loop A for each pair of investment alternatives

Loop B for each analysis year Project Analysis to determine benefits of
Loop C for each road section
paving a gravel road:
Calculate net monetary benefits 20km gravel road
Calculate net emissions and energy use 250 vehicles per day in year 2005
End loop C 4% traffic growth per year
Calculate net benefits over all the road sections Discount Rate of 15% used for evaluation
End loop B
Calculate economic indicators (NPV, IRR, etc.)
End loop A
Perform optimisation (Programme & Strategy)

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Project Alternative I Project Alternative II

grading twice per year with spot regravelling Upgraded to bituminous in 2005, followed by routine
Year RAC RUC Total Discounted
maintenance
Transport Year RAC RUC Total Discounted
Cost Total (15%) Transport
Cost Total (15%)
2005 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.3
2006 0.9 1.6 2.5 2.2 2005 5.8 + 0.8 1.5 8.1 8.1
2006 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2
2007 1.0 1.8 2.8 2.1
2007 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.2
2008 1.1 2.1 3.2 2.1
2008 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.2
2009 1.2 2.3 3.5 2.0 2009 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.2
2010 1.3 2.7 4.0 2.0 2010 0.7 1.6 2.3 1.1
2011 1.4 2.9 4.3 1.9 2011 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.1
2012 1.5 3.2 4.7 1.8 2012 0.9 2.0 2.9 1.1
2013 1.6 3.5 5.1 1.7 2013 0.9 2.2 3.1 1.1
2014 1.7 3.8 5.5 1.6 2014 1.0 2.3 3.3 0.9
2015 1.8 4.0 5.8 1.4 2015 1.0 2.5 3.5 0.9
TOTAL 19.1
TOTAL 21.1

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Example Analysis By Sections

PV of project alternative I is $21.1m.

PV for project alternative II is $19.1m. Road Section alternatives
sections 1 2 3 4 5

The NPV is defined as PV(Base Case) - PV Section A RM Resealing Overlay

Section B RM Overlay Reconstruction Widening
(Project Case)
Section C RM Resealing Rehabilitation Lane Realignment
addition
Therefore, NPV = 21.1 - 19.1 = $2.0m. Section D Grading Regravelling Paving

This suggests that the proposed bituminous paving

would be economically viable!

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Analysis By Projects Economic Decision Criteria 1

Road Project alternatives

Net Present Value
sections
NPV = (B1- C1)/(1 + r) + (B2- C2)/ (1 + r)2 + …+ (Bn- Cn)/(1 + r )n
1 2 3 4

Section A RM Resealing Reconstruction Realignment Internal Rate of Return

Section B RM Overlay Mill & replace Reconstruction To calculate IRR, solve for r, such that NPV = 0
Section C RM Inlay Reconstruction Lane addition
Section D Grading 1 Grading 2 Regravelling Upgrading B1, B2…Bn = Benefits in years 1, 2 … n
Project NPV 0 3.04 4.72 3.85
C1, C2…Cn = Costs in years 1, 2 …. n
r = Planning discount rate
n = Planning time horizon

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Internal Rate of Return Economic Decision Criteria 2

12.0 Net Present Value/ Investment Cost

10.0
NPV/ C = NPV/Ci
8.0

6.0
First Year Rate of Return
NPV

No IRR Solution
4.0
FYRR = (B1- C1) / Ci
2.0
B1 , C1 = Benefits and Costs in year 1
0.0
after construction
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
-2.0
Ci = Road investment costs
Discount Rate IRR

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 HDM-4 Modeling Framework

Economic Decision Criteria: Summary END

NPV IRR NPV/C FYRR

Project economic validity V.Good V.Good V.Good Poor
Mutually exclusive projects V.Good Poor Good Poor
Project timing Fair Poor Poor Good
Project screening * Poor V.Good Good Poor
Under budget constraint ** Fair Poor V.Good Poor

* check for robustness to changes in key variables

** with incremental analysis

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