Probability Math

The “probability” includes calculating the probability for events happening. While it is usual for the class
to include basic scenarios like playing cards and dice rolling at first, these basic tools are used later in the
class to find more complex probabilities, like the probability of contracting a certain disease. The
“statistics” part of probability and statistics includes a wide variety of methods to find actual statistics,
which are numbers you can use to generalize about a population.

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several
different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical
manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically, these axioms formalize probability in terms
of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability
measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of these outcomes is called
an event.

Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability
distributions, and stochastic processes, which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or
uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in
a random fashion. Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said
about their behavior. Two major results in probability theory describing such behavior are the law of
large numbers and the central limit theorem.

Consider an experiment that can produce several outcomes. The set of all outcomes is called the sample
space of the experiment. The power set of the sample space (or equivalently, the event space) is formed
by considering all different collections of results. For example, rolling an honest die produces one of six
results. One collection of results corresponds to getting an odd number. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an
element of the power set of the sample space of die rolls. These collections are called events. In this
case, {1,3,5} is the event that the die falls on some odd number. If the results that occur fall in each
event, that event is said to have occurred.

Probability is a way of assigning every "event" a value between zero and one, with the requirement that
the event made up of all results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) be assigned a value of one. To
qualify as a probability distribution, the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if you
look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events that contain no common results, e.g., the events
{1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that any of these events occurs is given by
the sum of the probabilities of the events.

The probability that any one of the events {1,6}, {3}, or {2,4} will occur is 5/6. This is the same as saying
that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number
except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event
{1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.

When doing calculations using the outcomes of an experiment, it is necessary that all those elementary
events have a number assigned to them. This is done using a random variable. A random variable is a
function that assigns to each elementary event in the sample space a real number. This function is
usually denoted by a capital letter. In the case of a die, the assignment of a number to a certain
elementary event can be done using the identity function. Discrete probability theory deals with events
that occur in countable sample spaces. Some examples are: Throwing dice, experiments with decks of
cards, random walk, and tossing coins.

Classical definition: Initially the probability of an event to occur was defined as the number of cases
favorable for the event, over the number of total outcomes possible in an equiprobable sample space.

For example, if the event is "occurrence of an even number when a die is rolled", the probability is given
by, since 3 faces out of the 6 have even numbers and each face has the same probability of appearing.
So, the probability of the entire sample space is 1, and the probability of the null event is 0.

The function mapping a point in the sample space to the "probability" value is called a probability mass
function abbreviated as pmf. The modern definition does not try to answer how probability mass
functions are obtained; instead, it builds a theory that assumes their existence.

Continuous probability distribution

The normal distribution, a continuous probability distribution.

Continuous probability theory deals with events that occur in a continuous sample space.

Classical definition: The classical definition breaks down when confronted with the continuous case. See
Bertrand's paradox.

If is continuous, i.e., its derivative exists and integrating the derivative gives us the cdf back again, then
the random variable X is said to have a probability density function or pdf or simply density for a set.
Whereas the pdf exists only for continuous random variables, the cdf exists for all random variables
(including discrete random variables) that take values. These concepts can be generalized for
multidimensional cases on and other continuous sample spaces.

Other distributions may not even be a mix, for example, the Cantor distribution has no positive
probability for any single point, neither does it have a density. The modern approach to probability
theory solves these problems using measure theory to define the probability space of any given set (also
called sample space) is defined a probability measure.

A hypothesis test is a hypothesis tests are used to determine if there is enough evidence in a sample to
prove a hypothesis true for the entire population. The test considers two hypotheses. The null
hypothesis is a statement meant to be tested, usually something like "there is no effect" with the
intention of proving this false. The alternate hypothesis is the statement meant to stand after the test is
performed. The two hypotheses must be complementary (one being the negation of the other).

If there is a correlation between two variables, a pattern can be seen when the variables are plotted on
a scatterplot. If this pattern can be approximated by a line, the correlation is linear. Otherwise, the
correlation is non-linear. The correlations between the variable can be linear, non-linear, or skewed.

In probability theory, the central limit theorem (CLT) establishes that, in many situations, when
independent random variables are added, their properly normalized sum tends toward a normal
distribution (informally a bell curve) even if the original variables themselves are not normally
distributed or skewed from positive to negative too normal. The theorem is a key concept in probability
theory because it implies that probabilistic and statistical methods that work for normal distributions
can be applicable to many problems involving other types of distributions.

Theoretic probability is based on math induced into logic thinking. for instance, if there were three
doors. You have a 3:1 chance of picking the door with a prize. When one door is eliminated your chances
change to 2:1. In theory, it is obvious that the door you least expected to win is the winner because the
probability of winning is greater than before. There is a 50% chance of winning, but the chances of the
same number reoccurring more than once are the chance you are willing to risk when the odds are in
your favor. Card counting is a method used to determine probability theoretic win. When used with true
count of the deck and counting cards will give you a better game strategy against the house. Casino
games is a game of chance. The house has at least a 2% advantage on all the casino games.