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Formulas TM

reference sheet. Eric van der Meulen, PMP

Variable Abbreviation / Name Formula

Project Manager Communication 90 %

Communication channels n(n-1) / 2 n = # of stakeholders

Normal Distribution 1 standard deviation = 1σ = 68.26 % 3σ = 99.73 %

1 SD = 1 sigma = 1σ 2σ = 95.46 % 6σ = 99.99985 %
SCHEDULE/COST – Estimating

Three point estimate for activity P = pessimistic, M = most For triangular distribution or simple average: EAD = (P + M + O) / 3
duration (EAD) or cost likely, O = optimistic For beta distribution, PERT or weighted average: EAD = (P + 4M + O) / 6

Standard Deviation of activity (or cost) SDactivity (or σactivity ) For beta distribution: (P – O) / 6

Variance of activity (or cost) Varactivity (or σ2 activity ) For beta distribution: ((P – O) / 6)2

Standard Deviation of Project SDproject (or σproject ) Var1 + Var2 + Var3 + …

Project Duration critical path activities only: (EAD1 + EAD2 + EAD3 + … ) + (# of sigma’s ∗ SDproject )

Estimating in Initiating Rough Order of Magnitude -25% to +75% from actual

Estimating early in Planning Budgetary / Top Down / -10% to +25% from actual
Analogous

Estimating late in Planning Definitive / Bottom-up -5% to +10% or +/-10% from actual

Expected Monetary Value EMV Probability ∗ Impact [$]

Net Benefit Net Benefit Σ EMV − cost

Variable Abbreviation Description Formula

Actual Cost AC Actual cost incurred for work

COST – Earned Value

performed (to date)

Earned Value EV Value of work performed (to date) Σ (PV of completed work)

Planned Value PV Budget assigned for work

performed (to date)

Cost Variance CV Measure of cost performance CV = EV – AC

Cost Performance Index CPI Measure of cost efficiency CPI = EV / AC

Schedule Variance SV Measure of schedule performance SV = EV – PV

Schedule Performance Index SPI Measure of schedule efficiency SPI = EV / PV

Budget At Completion BAC Budget assigned for planned work PROJECT COST BASELINE

Estimate To Complete ETC (for atypical variance) Assumes future work to be ETC = BAC – EV
performed as budgeted
COST – Forecasting

ETC (for typical variance) Assumes past performance to ETC = (BAC – EV) / CPI
continue throughout or ETC = EAC – AC
Estimate At Completion EAC Use when original est. is flawed EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC

EAC (for atypical variance) Assumes future work to be EAC = AC + BAC – EV

performed as budgeted

EAC (for typical variance) Assumes past performance to EAC = AC + ETC = AC + (BAC – EV) / CPI
continue throughout or EAC = BAC / CPI
Variance At Completion VAC Forecast of variance VAC = BAC – EAC

To-Complete Performance Index TCPI Cost performance necessary to TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC)
achieve BAC or new EAC goal BASED ON BAC
Work remaining divided by funds or TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC)
remaining BASED ON NEW EAC

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