PVPSTask 508
PVPSTask 508
PVPSTask 508
Task V
Report IEA-PVPS T5-08: 2002
March 2002
IEA PVPS
International Energy Agency
Implementing Agreement on Photovoltaic Power Systems
TASK V
Grid Interconnection of Building Integrated
and Other Dispersed Photovoltaic Power Systems
March 2002
Authors:
CONTENTS
FOREWORD................................................................................................................................. II
1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................1
1.1 Objectives of the Report.....................................................................................................1
2 PROBABILITY OF ISLANDING.........................................................................................2
2.1 Background ........................................................................................................................2
2.2 The Power Island Zone.......................................................................................................2
2.3 Stability of a Power Island .................................................................................................3
2.4 Load/Generation Match......................................................................................................4
2.5 Loss of Mains Protection and Islanding Detection ............................................................4
REFERENCES................................................................................................................................I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... II
FOREWORD
The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in November 1974, is an autonomous body
within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) which carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its 22
member countries. The European Commission also participates in the work of the Agency.
The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) is one of the collaborative R&D
agreements established within the IEA, and since 1993 its participants have conducted various
joint projects on the photovoltaic conversion of solar energy into electricity.
The twenty-two members are: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, European Commission,
Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.
This report has been prepared under the supervision of PVPS Task V by:
Australia, Austria, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, United
Kingdom and United States and approved by the Executive Committee of the PVPS programme.
The report expresses as accurately as possible the international consensus of opinion on the
subjects addressed.
Keywords: Photovoltaics, islanding, risk analysis, probability, safety, low voltage networks,
grid connected, non-detection zone, installation, safety integrity level
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The International Energy Agency (IEA) Implementing Agreement on Photovoltaic Power
Systems (PVPS) Task V Working Group is entitled: “Grid Interconnection of Building
Integrated and Other Dispersed Photovoltaic Power Systems" and since its formation in 1993
has investigated grid interconnection issues through international collaboration. The main
objective was to develop and verify technical requirements which may serve as technical
guidelines for grid interconnection of building integrated and other dispersed PV systems. The
development of technical guidelines will enable safe and reliable interconnection of PV systems
to the utility grid at the lowest possible cost.
It is generally accepted that grid interconnection of photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems
enables effective utilisation of the generated power from PV. However, technical requirements
of both the utility power system grid and the PV system must be satisfied to ensure the safety of
the PV operator and the reliability of the utility grid. Clarifying the technical requirements for
grid interconnection and solving the problems are therefore very important issues for the
widespread application of grid-connected PV systems. The requirements for grid-connected
systems are closely related to the configuration and operational regime of the power distribution
system, which are often country-specific. However, one of the technical issues of concern that
is common to all network operators around the world is that of islanding.
The purpose of this study was to apply formal risk analysis techniques to the issue of islanding
of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks. The aim was to
perform a first pass calculation to determine the additional level of risk that islanding could
present to the safety of customers and network maintenance staff. In the event of a loss of mains
supply, grid-connected PV systems are required to automatically disconnect from the grid in
order to prevent the network from islanding. This study has identified the reliability required of
the islanding detection and control systems and their installation, based on standard procedures
for developing a safety assurance strategy.
• The “benchmark” risk that already exists for network operators and customers is of the order
of 10-6 per year for an individual person
• The risk of electric shock associated with islanding of PV systems under worst-case PV
penetration scenarios to both network operators and customers is typically <10-9 per year
• Thus, the additional risk presented by islanding does not materially increase the risk that
already exists as long as the risk is managed properly
• Loss of mains (LOM) protection functionality provides additional safety, up to a point:
• An inverter’s designed safety integrity level (SIL) affects the level of risk
• The quality of the installation and any subsequent maintenance will also affect the risk
• There is a need to inform and educate both network operators and customers about the
implications of the use of PV as an embedded micro-generator, as PV systems become more
widespread.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page iv
It is recommended that:
i) incorporated into the training and education programmes of network operators and PV
system installers
1 INTRODUCTION
Task V is a technical working group of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Implementing
Agreement on Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS). The title of the working group is “Grid
Interconnection of Building Integrated and Other Dispersed Photovoltaic Power Systems.”
The main objective of Task V is to develop and verify technical requirements that may serve as
technical guidelines for the network interconnection of building-integrated and other dispersed
photovoltaic (PV) systems. These technical guidelines are intended to ensure the safe, reliable
and low-cost interconnection of PV systems to the electric power network.
It is generally accepted that grid interconnection of photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems
enables effective utilisation of the generated power from PV. However, technical requirements
of both the utility power system grid and the PV system must be satisfied to ensure the safety of
the PV operator and the reliability of the utility grid [1]. Clarifying the technical requirements
for grid interconnection and solving the problems are therefore very important issues for the
widespread application of grid-connected PV systems. The requirements for grid-connected
systems are closely related to the configuration and operational regime of the power distribution
system, which are often country-specific [2]. However, one of the technical issues of concern
that is common to all network operators around the world is that of unintentional power islands,
commonly referred to as islanding [3]. This phenomenon is common to all embedded
generation and not just PV.
It is the role of distribution network operators to provide a reliable, secure and safe power
network that meets certain performance criteria and at a reasonable cost to its customers.
Traditionally, these customers have been almost exclusively “demand” customers. However,
the general liberalisation of the electricity industry which is taking place globally means that
small generators now have certain rights to connect their generators to the distribution network
in many countries. This right normally has to be balanced by the costs associated with
connection.
The occurrence of unintentional power islands within distribution networks is of major concern
to network operators. Islanding impacts on many of the operational and safety requirements of
networks to both network maintenance operations and customers and therefore network
operators are keen to ensure that islanding cannot occur.
2 PROBABILITY OF ISLANDING
2.1 Background
Islanding of inverter-connected PV-generator systems means “… any situation where the
source of power from the network operator’s distribution system is disconnected from the
network section in which the generator is connected, and one or more inverters maintain a
supply to that section of the distribution system or consumer’s installation” [4].
Thus, in the event of a loss of mains supply, grid-connected PV systems are required to
automatically disconnect from the grid in order to prevent the power network from islanding.
Many techniques, using either active or passive detection methods, have been developed over
the years. A comprehensive review of loss of mains detection techniques is contained in a
complementary IEA report [5].
This study has considered the risk of islanding to operators as a combination of the probability
of load/generation match combined with the simultaneous loss of mains supply and the failure
of the protection to detect the island on demand, i.e.
The probability of the loss of mains supply, P(LOM), can be estimated reasonably accurately
from existing data. In this study, actual data relating to the probability of power outage in
typical UK distribution systems is used in conjunction with estimates for the frequency of
maintenance operations carried out by network maintenance staff.
However, the probability of load/generation match, P(match) is harder to define, therefore more
information is needed. This information has been provided by a parallel study carried out as
part of the co-ordinated IEA PVPS Task V activities in the form of a comprehensive Dutch
study examining probability of load/generation match [6].
The third component in the risk analysis is the failure of the protection. The probability of the
protection failing to detect an island is a function of several factors:
Before examining the risk analysis of islanding in detail, it is important to answer some
fundamental questions, such as:
However, the boundary for an island is likely to conform to the following constraints:
Under these constraints, the most likely island boundary on the public network will be at the
distribution transformer fuse (LV side or MV side). For a single house, the most likely island
boundary is at the consumer unit (e.g. cut-out fuse, MCB or main switch).
i) unstable island – an island condition that lasts for less than 5 seconds
ii) quasi-stable island – an island condition that lasts for 5 to 60 seconds
iii) stable island – an island condition lasting longer than 60 seconds
In this study, it is assumed that unstable islands (i.e. islands lasting < 5 seconds) do not present a
significant risk, since there is a natural human response time delay between disconnecting an
electrical circuit and performing any manual work on the disconnected circuit.
Similarly, the results of the Dutch study has shown that islanding conditions are unlikely to
persist for >60 seconds and so islands of duration longer than one minute are also not considered
in order to simplify the analysis.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 4
Thus, data related to “quasi-stable” islands has been extracted from the Dutch data for the
purposes of this study.
There are other factors that also limit the practical ability of the protection to detect loss of
mains. These include the inherent designed safety integrity level (SIL) of the inverter and also
the installation and commissioning procedures for the PV inverter system.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 5
W3 W2 W1
cA x1
a --- ---
x2
PA 1 a ---
Starting point for
risk reduction cB FA x3
PB
estimation
FB PA 2 1 a
cC FA PB x4
3 2 1
FB PA
Generalised
arrangement (in
PB x5 4 3 2
practical
implementations
cD FA
the arrangement is PA
specific to the FB
applications to be PB x6 b 4 3
covered by the risk
graph)
a = no special safety requirements
C = Consequence risk parameter --- = no safety requirements
F = Frequency and exposure time risk parameter b = A single E/E/PES is not sufficient
P = Possibility of failing to avoid hazard risk parameter 1,2,3,4 = Safety Integrity Level (SIL)
W = Probability of the unwanted occurrence
Figure 2 ‘Risk graph: general scheme’ from IEC 61508 - 5 Standard (1998) [7]
The decision process starts from the left. Potential consequences are considered (e.g. minor
damage CA to multiple deaths CD). Then the likelihood is assessed of someone actually being
exposed to the risk of these consequences at the time of the failure, either FA for safety or FB for
exposure (e.g. how long does the dangerous condition persist and how likely is it that someone
is working on the system when the fault occurs?). Then the possibility of mitigation or
avoidance (e.g. rubber gloves) is assessed, PA for successful avoidance and PB for ineffective
precautions.
Finally, the user decides on the acceptability of a given frequency of occurrence of the undesired
events. W3 represents a low acceptable frequency, and W1 a relatively higher acceptable
frequency. The table on the right then enables the appropriate safety integrity level (SIL) to be
chosen, from ‘a’, ‘no special safety requirements’, through SIL 1 to 4, to ‘b’ (= think again
about how to ensure acceptable safety).
Other parts of IEC 61508, and comparable documents, sometimes use the same approach but
instead of specifying an SIL and leaving the designer to find a method of achieving it, actually
give a prescriptive method, or choice of methods, by which the SIL can be achieved.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 6
For the continuous or ‘high’ demand mode of operation , the probability of a dangerous failure
is determined on a “per hour” basis. For ‘low’ demand, the probability of a dangerous failure is
determined on the basis of failure ‘on demand’. The probabilities of failure for high demand
and low demand modes of operation are given in Table 1 and Table 2 respectively.
The two measures of reliability are equivalent if the number of demands made on the system is
approximately 1 per year. This can be seen as there are 0.8760 x 104 hours per year. For our risk
study, we have used the data for “performance on demand”.
The actual number of undesired consequences which is considered acceptable will depend on
the severity of the consequences. For instance, if each system failure resulted in multiple deaths,
or even a single death, then a higher SIL would be sought. Conversely, if only minor damage to
inexpensive equipment was the result, a lower SIL might be acceptable.
IEC 61608-5, i.e. Part 5 of the Standard, describes a process of arriving at the appropriate SIL
for a particular system, in accordance with the philosophy illustrated above, with the objective
of achieving a risk which is ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) [8,9]. The same
approach is proposed in a number of related national standards.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 7
NETWORK
AND
ISLANDING AND
INVERTER
RISK
OPERATOR
Figure 3 indicates that for an island to occur there has to be a match between load and
generation at the same time as a loss of mains supply occurs. Furthermore, the inverter
protection must fail to detect the loss of mains condition. Finally, for an operator to be at risk,
he must touch the energised live conductor.
Each of the elements of the fault tree are examined in more detail in the following sections.
Section 4 gives individual consideration to distribution networks, Section 5 examines the
inverter aspects and Section 6 looks at the operator issues. The three elements are then brought
together in the full risk analysis in Section 7.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 8
4 LV DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
This section is based on UK network data as this information was most readily available for this
‘first pass’ calculation.
The majority of LV networks in the UK are cable rather than overhead line (approximately 80%
of the UK’s LV network is cable network, measured by distance). As one might expect, LV
cable networks typically have higher customer densities (approximately 85 customers per km of
cable) compared with LV overhead line networks (approximately 22 customers per km of
overhead line). This means that approx 95% of LV domestic customers are supplied by LV
cable, leaving 5% of domestic customers supplied by LV overhead line.
The fault rate for overhead line customers is likely to be higher – say two supply interruptions
per year, against cable customers with typically less than one supply interruption every five
years. Note that the fault rates are not directly applicable to islanding, since a short circuit fault
should mean that the inverter’s overcurrent protection should operate (i.e. does not have to rely
on island detection). However, fault rate can be used as a proxy to indicate the level of
maintenance activity on the network, requiring re-configuration of other sections of the network
where no fault exists, resulting in the potential for loss of supply to other parts of the network.
i) P(LOM) - the network zone becomes disconnected from the main network
ii) P(match) - the simultaneous match of load and generation within a network zone
• 2 faults per year for a rural overhead line network, leading to a customer exposure rate of
where
• 0.2 faults per year for a urban cable network leads to a customer exposure rate of
For network maintenance staff, if a working year is divided into 250 working days and each day
has two ‘jobs’, each with four switching operations, then a maintenance engineer performs 2000
switching operations per year.
Thus, if an approximate value for the potential “exposure rate” for network maintenance staff
can be estimated on this basis, we have:
• 2000 switching operations per year leads to a network maintenance staff exposure rate of
where
These values will be used in the Risk Calculation carried out in Section 7.
Focussing on the points where the two lines meet, the duration of the match is dependent on the
‘margin’ chosen to define matched conditions. Whilst the margin can be set arbitrarily, in
practice a value is chosen to reflect the behaviour of the system. Typical match criteria values
of 2, 5 and 15% were used in the Dutch study to illustrate the sensitivity of the probability of
islanding to the load/generation match criteria.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 10
Load Demand
Margin
Power
M*100Wpk PV
Match Generation
Time of Day
The match criteria also need to take into account real and reactive power flows, as shown in
Figure 5, since both need to be matched for a sustained power island.
Real
Load
lagging PF
Reactive VAr
Inverter
leading PF
Finally, in the real world situation, the Dutch study showed that load and generation profiles are
much more dynamic than the ideal profiles shown above. Also, the rate of change of load is
greater than the rate of change of PV output, therefore, the rate of change of load is the more
significant dynamic factor. This implies that the number of load/generation matches will be
greater in real situations, but load/generation matches are more likely to be due to transient load
changes (i.e. match condition will not last for any significant length of time). Transient load
changes, by definition, do not last very long (i.e. < one second), and so are not relevant to the
analysis of ‘quasi-stable’ power islands (i.e. island duration in the range five to sixty seconds).
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 11
The Dutch study also showed that the probability of load/generation match is a function of PV
penetration which can be characterised by a curve of the form shown in Figure 6. This provides
us with some useful benchmark values for the risk analysis as calculated below:
890Wp
1
0.8
Frequency
0.6
0.4
0.2 400Wp
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
PV Array Size (kWp)
Using round numbers, if the average uptake of PV within an LV fused zone is less than 400Wp
per house (corresponding roughly to 3 times the minimum demand or 1/3 of the after-diversity
maximum demand, ADMD), the potential for islanding tends to zero as shown in Figure 6. The
worst-case scenario is reached when the PV rating reaches approximately six times the
minimum (night-time) load or 2/3 of the ADMD. In this case, using typical match criteria, the
probability of a load/generation match lasting for one second is in the region of:
The Dutch study also showed how the stability of a power island has an exponentially decaying
characteristic, similar to that shown in Figure 7.
0 5 10 15 20 25
Island Duration (Seconds)
Figure 7: Probability of islanding versus island duration
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 12
Based on the Dutch data, the probability of load/generation match typically reduces by a factor
of ten for island durations > 5 seconds. This reduces the probability of load/generation match
to:
This highlights the appropriateness of the “5 second delay” used in some countries as a safety
precaution following disconnection of the mains supply. This delay allows any unstable island
to decay before any manual operation is carried out on the LV network.
Based on the data from the Dutch Study, it can be concluded that:
This information forms the basis for the estimate of load/generation match conditions, which is
one of the key components of the risk analysis. These values will be used in the risk calculation
carried out in Section 7.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 13
5 INVERTER
PROTECTION
FAILURE
(Design/
Reliability)
INSTALLATION
INCORRECT OR
(Limits set
incorrectly)
NON-
DETECTION
ZONE (NDZ)
(V, F, LOM)
Loss of mains supply is an infrequent event. The ‘low demand mode of operation’ means that
‘performance on demand’ is the appropriate assessment criterion. Functional loss of mains tests
have been developed by many countries to provide a measure of this ‘performance on demand’.
A combination of repeat tests and stringent test parameter values provides some indication as to
the safety integrity level of the inverter. We have chosen a value of:
for the SIL level of the inverter protection, based on type testing of inverter loss of mains. This
corresponds to 10 consecutive successful operations when asked to perform on demand (i.e.
(1/2)10 ≈ 10-3).
Note: reliability and safety are not the same: it is possible that the safety of a system with
relatively unreliable components, in a redundant structure, could be higher than the safety of a
system with a simpler structure but with more reliable components (See BE EN 954-1). The
probability of the islanding protection failing to operate could be reduced by:
• Selection of components: the use of accredited suppliers (i.e ISO9001 or similar)
• System structure – design for redundancy
• Self test function within the unit
• Periodic checking (difficult to implement)
• incompetent installation
• vandalism/tampering
• illegal connection (e.g. ‘Guerrilla Solar’)
i) Use of a non-approved inverter. This may contain ‘sufficient’ islanding protection but
there is no guarantee.
ii) Software settings (protection, voltage/frequency) are incorrect.
Loss of mains
Reactive Power (function of time,
(function of match)
frequency)
Thus, it can be seen that operation outside the envelope can be detected by the use of
appropriate voltage and frequency limits. Additional ‘active’ methods can be employed, either
to provide additional protection as an independent LOM function or by providing accelerated
operation of the voltage/frequency limits. More data on loss of mains functions can be obtained
from a parallel study which provides comprehensive information on currently available options
[5].
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 16
6 OPERATORS
This section can be divided conveniently into ‘network operators’ and ‘domestic customers’ (i.e.
operators of PV systems). A table of relative risks, derived from readily available publications,
is given in the appendix to put the risk values we have chosen in perspective.
for death by electric shock of a UK electricity operative has been derived from available
statistics and confirmed approximately by our specific enquiries in UK electricity distribution
companies.
Live-line working practices are well established in many countries, including the UK. When
following these procedures on LV networks, it is part of the procedure to take all reasonable
steps to make the circuit dead and to check that the circuit is dead and earthed before performing
any activity which could involve touching the conductor. During the maintenance operation, the
conductors are then still treated as if they were live, just in case a mistake is made.
6.2 Customer
Network operators have a duty of care to ensure appropriate safety for its customers, and so
consideration needs to be given to the safety of customers who operate grid-connected PV
systems. The risks associated with electric shock on conventional systems are commonly well
understood by the general public, but we do not have any data readily available on electric shock
in the home. All accidents in the home have an individual risk similar to that for road accidents,
which is relatively high. A better benchmark for this study is perhaps the risk to the general
public from all uses of gas. This is just over
2x10-6/year [6.3]
Based on the data presented in the previous sections, the risk of islanding to network operators
and customers can be examined first using a scenario where there are no safety measures (i.e. no
loss of mains protection, unsafe working practices by the operator, where islands with duration
greater than one second are a cause for concern). The detailed mathematics behind the risk
calculation is contained in Information Box 7.1, whilst the basic framework is illustrated in
Figure 10.
OPERATOR
OPERATOR
Worst AND
WorstCase:
Case: 1.0
-3 1.0
(Typical: 10 )
(Typical: 1.0E-03) RISK
RISK
NETWORK AND 8.3*10
-7
/year (cable)
NETWORK ISLANDING 8.3E-07/year (cable)
ISLANDING 8.3*10
-6
/year (o/h)
(>1 8.3E-06/year (o/h)
Load/Generation
Load/Generation Match
Match (>27 second)
seconds)
-5 1.3*10
1.3E07 seconds/year
10 /sec
1.0E-5/sec -7 seconds/year
xx 8.3*10 /year (cable)
8.3E-07/year (cable)
-6
Network or 8.3*10 /year (o/h)
or 8.3E-06/year (o/h)
NetworkZoneZone--loss
lossofof-9supply
supply
0.2/year (cable) 6.3*10
0.2/year (cable) 6.3E-09/sec /sec
-8
2/year (o/h line) 6.3*10
2/year (o/h line) 6.3E-08/sec /sec
INVERTER
INVERTER
Worst-case
Worst-case-3(no
(noLOM)
LOM)1.0
1.0
(Typical: 10 )
(Typical <1.0E-3)
As described previously, based on equation 2.1, the risk of islanding is calculated as:
Using the method described in Information Box 7.1 and the values given in Figure 10, we have:
From Section 6, the benchmark risk for network operators is 10-6 per year and for a customer is
2x10-6. In this case, we see that the additional risk posed by islanding is of the same order as the
risk that already exits, which is not acceptable. Thus, some additional safety measures are
necessary.
If we first consider the network operator and his network maintenance staff, we have the revised
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 18
scenario, as shown in Figure 11. In this case, we are using a value of 10-3 for the contribution
from the inverter loss of mains protection, with safe working practices providing an additional
improvement in safety of 10-3. In addition, working practices are assumed to be in place such
that only islands of duration >5 seconds are of concern. This gives an additional reduction of
risk by a factor of 10-1. Also, the exposure rate of maintenance staff is higher than the base case,
since they are actually working on networks on a daily basis. This is reflected in the risk
calculation.
OPERATOR
OPERATOR
(Worst AND
(WorstCase:
Case: 1.0)
-3 1.0)
Typical: 10
Typical: 1.0E-03
AND RISK
RISK
NETWORK
NETWORK ISLANDING
ISLANDING -9
(>1 2.0*10 /year
Load/Generation
Load/Generation Match
Match (>26 second)
seconds) 2.0E-09/year
10
-5
/sec 7.2E06 seconds/year
7.2*10 seconds/year
1.0E-5/sec
xx -5
Network 2.0*10 /year
2.0E-05/year
NetworkZoneZone--loss
lossofofsupply
supply
88ops per
per day = 2000/year==
ops -4 day = 2000/year
2.8*10 /sec
2.8E-04/sec X0.1
ISLANDING
ISLANDING
INVERTER (>5
(>5seconds)
seconds)
INVERTER
-6
(Worst-case (no 2.0*10 /year
(Worst-case-3(noLOM)
LOM)1.0)
1.0) 2.0E-06/year
Typical: 10
Typical <1.0E-3
In this scenario, the additional risk is reduced to 2.0x10-9, which is approximately three orders of
magnitude better than the risk that already exists. This is within the limits of acceptability, since
the additional risk should be more than offset by improvements in safety as a result of greater
awareness of the risk of electric shock in general, brought about by the introduction of grid-
connected PV systems.
Finally, if the scenario for domestic customers is considered, we assume a conservative value
for safe working practices of only 10-1. The exposure rate reverts to the base case model, whilst
the contribution of the LOM protection and the >5 second island duration is the same as in the
network maintenance staff scenario. This scenario is illustrated in Figure 12.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 19
OPERATOR
OPERATOR
(Worst AND
(WorstCase:
Case: 1.0)
-1 1.0)
Typical: 10
Typical: 1.0E-01
AND RISK
RISK
NETWORK
NETWORK ISLANDING
ISLANDING -12
(>1 8.3*10 /year (cable)
Load/Generation
Load/Generation Match
Match (>27 second)
seconds) 8.3E-12/year
-11 (cable)
-5 1.3*10 seconds/year 8.3*10 /year (o/h)
8.3E-11/year (o/h)
10 /sec
1.0E-5/sec 1.3E07 -10 seconds/year
xx 8.3*10 /year (cable)
8.3E-10/year (cable)
-9
Network 8.3*10
8.3E-09/year(o/h
/year (o/hline)
line)
NetworkZone Zone--loss
lossofof-9supply
supply
0.2/year (cable) 6.3*10
0.2/year (cable) 6.3E-09/sec /sec
-9
2/year
2/year(o/h
(o/hline)
line)6.3*10
6.3E-08/sec/sec X0.1
1
ISLANDING
ISLANDING
INVERTER (>5
(>5seconds)
seconds)
INVERTER
-11
(Worst-case 8.3*10 /year (cable)
(Worst-case-3(no
(noLOM)
LOM)1.0)
1.0) 8.3E-11/year
-10 (cable)
Typical: 10 8.3*10
8.3E-10/year (o/h
/year (o/h line)
line)
Typical <1.0E-3
In this case, the calculation for Risk(islanding) in overhead line networks becomes:
In this case, the additional risk is calculated at better than 10-10, which is four orders of
magnitude better than the risk that already exists, which is well within the limits of acceptability.
The additional risk that grid-connected PV systems may pose can be addressed by the use of
suitable warning signs at the main locations where the additional danger may be present. Indeed,
the use of warning labels at the consumer unit is recommended practice in many countries. A
method of confirmation that the circuit is dead before manual work commences also forms part
of recommended practices in many countries as well.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 20
If the risk of a dangerous occurrence in a time interval is p, then the probability that the operator
will be safe during that time interval is (1-p). The probability that the operator will be safe
during both the first time interval and the second time interval as well is (1-p)*(1-p) = (1-p)2 .
In general, the probability that the operator will remain safe during n successive time intervals is
the result of multiplying together the probability that he will be safe during each single interval,
i.e. (1-p)n. The expression (1-p)n can be expanded to {1 - np …. + higher order terms … + (-p)n}
The probability that there will be at least one dangerous occurrence during n time intervals is
given by P(dangerous) = {1-P(safe)}, or P(dangerous) = {1 - (1-p)n}. When p is small, this
reduces to P (dangerous) = {1 - (1-np)} = np, because the higher order terms can be neglected.
In the specific case when we know the risk p of a dangerous event during one second, the risk of
at least one dangerous event during a ‘year’ consisting of 10-hour ‘days’ {as in the study in
Ref [6]} is np = (365*10*60*60)*p = (1.314 * 107 ) * p
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page 21
It is recommended that:
i) incorporated into the training and education programmes of network operators and PV
system installers
REFERENCES
1 IEA Task V: report IEA-PVPS V-1-04: ‘Information on electrical distribution systems in
related IEA countries (revised version)’, March 1998.
2 IEA Task V: report T5-01:1998: ‘Utility aspects of grid connected photovoltaic systems’,
December 1998.
5 Ward Bower and Michael Ropp: “Evaluation of Islanding detection methods for
photovoltaic utility-interactive power systems”, Task V Report, January 2002.
8 The Tolerability of Risks from Nuclear Power Stations. UK Health and Safety Executive
publication. HSE Books 1992. ISBN 0 11 88368 1
10 Godfrey PS. Control of Risk: A Guide to the Systematic Management of Risk from
Construction. UK Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA)
Special Report SP 125, 1996.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge the IEA PVPS Programme for providing the
international collaborative framework for this project and the other related complementary
studies. Thanks are also due to the members of the IEA PVPS Task V Working Group, for
providing invaluable peer review of this report, with special thanks to Bas Verhoeven (KEMA),
without whose data on the Dutch islanding study this risk analysis report would not have been
possible. In addition, thanks are also due to the DTI, through ETSU, for supporting this work.
Finally, the authors would also like to express thanks for the assistance of several UK network
operators who kindly supplied information related to network performance and operational
practices for this study.
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page iii
Injury only, -3
2 1.64 * 10 7 [9, App 4, Table 4]
from burn or scald in the home
-3
3 Women, UK, aged 35-44 1.10 * 10 10 [9, DV, Table 1]
-4
6 Boys, UK, aged 5-14 2.00 * 10 57 [9, DV, Table 1]
-5
10 Construction Worker 4.66 * 10 244 [9, Box in Para 128]
-6
12 Service Sector Worker 3.00 * 10 3,784 [9, App 4, Table 3]
AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA
Mr. Phil GATES Mr. Christoph PANHUBER
Energy Australia Fronius International GmbH
L14 570 George St. Gunter-Fronius-Strasse 1
Sydney, New South Wales Wels-Thalheim
2000 A-4600
+612-9269-7366 +43-7242-241-199
+612-9269 7372 +43-7242-241-224
email: [email protected] email - [email protected]
AUSTRIA DENMARK
Dr. Gerd SCHAUER Mr. Arne Faaborg POVLSEN
Verbundplan Elsam A/S
Parkring 12 M. SC. Elec. Eng.
Wien Overgade 45
A-1010 DK-7000 Fredericia
+43-1-53113-52439 +45-7622-2408
+43-1-53113-52469 +45-7522-2450
email: [email protected] email - [email protected]
GERMANY ITALY
Mr. Hermann LAUKAMP Mr. Francesco GROPPI
Fraunhofer Institut fuer Solare Energiesysteme CESI S.p.A.
Heidenhofster. 2 Via Rubattino, 54,
Freiburg, D-79770 Milano
+49-761-4588-5275 20134
+49-761-4588-9000 +39-(0)2-2125 5686
email – [email protected] +39-(0)2-2125 5626
email: [email protected]
JAPAN JAPAN
Mr. Tadashi KANBAYASHI (TaskV Mr. Tadao ISHIKAWA (Task V Chairman)
Operating Agent) CRIEPI Customer Systems Department
NEDO, New Energy Promotion Dept. 2-11-1 Iwado-kita,
Sunshine 60, 29F; 1-1,3-Chome Komae-shi
Higashi-Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku Tokyo
Tokyo, 170-6028, 201-8511
+81-3-3987-9367 +81-3-3480-2111
+81-3-3590-5803 +81-3-3480-3866
email – [email protected] email: [email protected]
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page v
JAPAN JAPAN
Mr. Hiromu KOBAYASHI Mr. Hiroaki MIZUNAGA
CRIEPI Customer Systems Dept., NEDO, New Energy Promotion Dept.
2-11-1 Iwado-kita, Komae-shi Sunshine 60, 27F; 1-1,3-Chome
Tokyo, 201 Higashi-Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku
+81-3-3480-2111 Tokyo, 170-6028,
+81-3-3430-4014 +81-3-3987-9319
email - [email protected] +81-3-3590-5803
email – [email protected]
NETHERLANDS PORTUGAL
Mr. Bas VERHOEVEN Mr. Petro Sassetti PAES
KEMA EDP-Electriciadade de Portugal, S.A.
Utrechtseweg 310 Gabinete de Investigacao e Desenvolvimento
Arnhem Av. Infante Santo, 17-6
6812 AR Lisbon, 1350
+31-263-56-3581 +351-1-395-5900
+31-263-51-3843 +351-1-390-2531
email: [email protected] email: [email protected]
SWITZERLAND SWITZERLAND
Mr. Sergio TAIANA Mr. Daniel RUOSS
ewz Enecolo
Tramstrasse 35 Lindhofstrasse 52
Postfach, Zurich Mönchaltorf
8050 CH-8617
+31-1-319-44-55 +41-(0)1-994-9001
+31-1-319-41-97 +41-(0)1-994-9005
email: [email protected] email: [email protected]
Risk analysis of islanding of photovoltaic power systems within low voltage distribution networks Page vi