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STAT1301 Lecture 1: Introduction: Prof. Dirk P. Kroese

This document provides an overview of the STAT1301 Advanced Analysis of Scientific Data course. It introduces the course lecturers and resources, outlines the assessment components which include workshops, reviews, exams, and due dates. Administrative and academic contact details are also provided. The document emphasizes that statistics is an essential part of science for understanding uncertainty and extracting meaningful information from data. It provides an example of determining whether a coin is fair to illustrate the typical steps taken in a scientific study.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
84 views67 pages

STAT1301 Lecture 1: Introduction: Prof. Dirk P. Kroese

This document provides an overview of the STAT1301 Advanced Analysis of Scientific Data course. It introduces the course lecturers and resources, outlines the assessment components which include workshops, reviews, exams, and due dates. Administrative and academic contact details are also provided. The document emphasizes that statistics is an essential part of science for understanding uncertainty and extracting meaningful information from data. It provides an example of determining whether a coin is fair to illustrate the typical steps taken in a scientific study.

Uploaded by

jane
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 67

STAT1301

Lecture 1: Introduction

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese

School of Mathematics and Physics


The University of Queensland
STAT1301 Semester 2, 2019

Welcome to STAT1301 Advanced Analysis of Scientific Data

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 2/27


People

I Prof. Dirk Kroese


Lecturer — first half

I Dr Julian Lamont (Philosophy)


Ethics Lectures

I Dr Ian Wood
Course Coordinator and Lecturer — second half

I Mr John Cohen
Course Administrator

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 3/27


Resources

I Blackboard — for lecture recordings, course notes, R


programs, and handouts

I Resource Page (accessible via Blackboard), where all


assessments are to be submitted.

I Course notes: Obtain a bound copy from Print on Demand


(POD).

I Textbook: A Portable Introduction to Data Analysis

I R Software: Download from https://www.r-project.org


RStudio: Download from https://www.rstudio.com

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 4/27


Contact

I Three hours of lectures per week.

I Workshops (10 in total)

I Consultation hour (see ECP)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 5/27


Assessment
I Workshops (10%).

I Statistical Review (6%)

I Ethics Review (10%)

I Mid-semester exam (20%)

I Final Examination (54%)

IMPORTANT: You must obtain at least 40% of the marks on the


final exam, at least 40% of the combined marks on both exams,
and at least 40% of the combined marks from the non-exam
assessment items to obtain a grade of 4 or higher for the course.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 6/27


Due Dates

IMPORTANT: Always consult the Electronic Course Profile and the


Resources Page for due dates.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 7/27


Workshops (10%)

I Each week (except in weeks 1, 4, and 11)

I Sign in before the end of Week 1

I Practice the ideas covered in the lectures by working through


activities and exercises with other students and the tutors

I Online assessment that includes a short quiz

I Quiz must be completed by the end of your scheduled


workshop session for the week

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 8/27


Statistical Review (6%)

I Find a scientific paper through the library of interest to you

I Choose any paper you like, as long as it has a p-value, a


volume and page numbers or a DOI (or both) and was
published no earlier than 2016

I Write a brief summary of the use of statistical inference in the


paper you have chosen

I Submit your review online

I Due date 16 August (see ECP)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 9/27


Ethics Review (10%)

I Ethics lectures half-way during the course


I The Ethics Review again involves finding a scientific paper
through the library of interest to you.
I Any paper you like as long as it has a volume and page
numbers or a DOI (or both) and was published no earlier than
2016. Can be the same paper as for your statistical review.
I Can choose to form a group of up to three people, or work
individually.
I Discussion of ethical issues involved in the study (essay
max. 500 words).
I Submit your review online by.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 10/27


Mid-Semester Examination (20%)

I Covers the first half of the course

I 1 hour exam

I Problem solving and computational questions

I Multiple choice

I Friday 19 September, 18:00–19:10

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 11/27


Final Examination (54%)

I Covers the whole course

I 2 hours (plus 10 mins perusal)

I Short answer and problem solving questions

I Provided with statistical tables and a sheet of useful formulae

I Visit the site www.uq.edu.au/myadvisor/exam-calculators for a


list of approved calculators

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 12/27


Administrative Enquiries

For administrative enquiries (in the following order):

1. Consult the Electronic Course Profile

2. Write an email to the School’s academic admin support: Mr


John Cohen [email protected]

3. Send an email to the course coordinator

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 13/27


Academic Enquiries

For academic questions:

1. Study the course notes (really)

2. Read the texbook

3. Try the R-code (please do)

4. Ask your tutor

5. Ask your lecturer during or immediately after the lecture

6. Ask your lecturer during their consultation hour

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 14/27


Should I do this course?

You should only do this course if:

1. You are committed to attend all lectures

2. You participate in all workshops

3. You seriously study the lecture notes

4. You make an effort to try R software examples at home

5. You are interested in understanding the maths

6. You refrain from “looking up answers” on the Internet

Otherwise, STAT1201 would be more suitable

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 15/27


Why do Statistics?

Statistics is an essential part of science, providing the language


and techniques for understanding and dealing with chance and
uncertainty in nature.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 16/27


Why do Statistics?

Statistics is an essential part of science, providing the language


and techniques for understanding and dealing with chance and
uncertainty in nature.

Statistics involves the design, collection, analysis, and


interpretation of data, with the aim of extracting the “signal” out of
the “noise”.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 16/27


Why do Statistics?

Statistics is an essential part of science, providing the language


and techniques for understanding and dealing with chance and
uncertainty in nature.

Statistics involves the design, collection, analysis, and


interpretation of data, with the aim of extracting the “signal” out of
the “noise”.

There are typically seven steps taken for any scientific study. Let’s
introduce these steps via a toy example.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 16/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question: Is the given coin fair? Or is it biased


towards Heads, say?

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question: Is the given coin fair? Or is it biased


towards Heads, say?

2. Design experiment:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question: Is the given coin fair? Or is it biased


towards Heads, say?

2. Design experiment: We could toss the coin a number of times,


say 100 times, and observe when Heads or Tails appears.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question: Is the given coin fair? Or is it biased


towards Heads, say?

2. Design experiment: We could toss the coin a number of times,


say 100 times, and observe when Heads or Tails appears.

3. Conduct experiment and collect data:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
Suppose we find a coin in our pocket. We are pretty sure it is a
memoryless coin, but we may not be so sure that it is a fair coin.

Let’s go through the seven steps.

1. Research question: Is the given coin fair? Or is it biased


towards Heads, say?

2. Design experiment: We could toss the coin a number of times,


say 100 times, and observe when Heads or Tails appears.

3. Conduct experiment and collect data: We go ahead and


obtain a sequence of 100 Heads or Tails— or we could simply
write a 1 for Heads and 0 for Tails.
Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 17/27
Example: Is a given coin fair?
4. Visualise and summarise data:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 18/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
4. Visualise and summarise data: Suppose we obtain a
sequence of 100 observations, such as visualised in the figure
below:

1 50 100
Figure 1: The dark bars indicate when Heads (=1) appears.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 18/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
4. Visualise and summarise data: Suppose we obtain a
sequence of 100 observations, such as visualised in the figure
below:

1 50 100
Figure 1: The dark bars indicate when Heads (=1) appears.

We can summarise the data by giving the total number of Heads,


x, say.

In this particular experiment, we observe x = 60. That is, we find


60 Heads in 100 tosses.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 18/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
4. Visualise and summarise data: Suppose we obtain a
sequence of 100 observations, such as visualised in the figure
below:

1 50 100
Figure 1: The dark bars indicate when Heads (=1) appears.

We can summarise the data by giving the total number of Heads,


x, say.

In this particular experiment, we observe x = 60. That is, we find


60 Heads in 100 tosses.

Does this mean that the coin is not fair, or is this outcome simply
due to chance?
Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 18/27
Example: Is a given coin fair?
5. Model for data: A key concept in Statistics is to realise that our
single dataset from a single experiment is one of many datasets
we could have seen (but just didn’t get to see).

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 19/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
5. Model for data: A key concept in Statistics is to realise that our
single dataset from a single experiment is one of many datasets
we could have seen (but just didn’t get to see).

If we were to repeat the experiment with the same coin, we would


likely get a different series of Heads and Tails and therefore a
different outcome of x:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 19/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
5. Model for data: A key concept in Statistics is to realise that our
single dataset from a single experiment is one of many datasets
we could have seen (but just didn’t get to see).

If we were to repeat the experiment with the same coin, we would


likely get a different series of Heads and Tails and therefore a
different outcome of x:

1 50 100

Figure 2: Three different experiments with the same coin.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 19/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

We have to consider our single dataset of x = 60 heads in light of


all the datasets we could have seen.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 20/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

We have to consider our single dataset of x = 60 heads in light of


all the datasets we could have seen.

If we denote by X (capital letter) the (random) total number of


Heads (out of 100) that we might observe tomorrow, then we can
view x = 60 as just one possible outcome of the random variable
X.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 20/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

We have to consider our single dataset of x = 60 heads in light of


all the datasets we could have seen.

If we denote by X (capital letter) the (random) total number of


Heads (out of 100) that we might observe tomorrow, then we can
view x = 60 as just one possible outcome of the random variable
X.

We can model X as the sum of 100 independent draws (with


replacement) from the “population” {0, 1}.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 20/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

We have to consider our single dataset of x = 60 heads in light of


all the datasets we could have seen.

If we denote by X (capital letter) the (random) total number of


Heads (out of 100) that we might observe tomorrow, then we can
view x = 60 as just one possible outcome of the random variable
X.

We can model X as the sum of 100 independent draws (with


replacement) from the “population” {0, 1}.

This model for X tells us how X behaves probabilistically.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 20/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

6. Analyse model:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 21/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

6. Analyse model: To answer the question whether the coin is fair,


we need to find out how likely it is that X takes a value of 60 or
more for a fair coin.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 21/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

6. Analyse model: To answer the question whether the coin is fair,


we need to find out how likely it is that X takes a value of 60 or
more for a fair coin.

We will learn a formula later that tells us that for a fair coin the
probability that X takes a value of 60 or more, is about 0.028.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 21/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

6. Analyse model: To answer the question whether the coin is fair,


we need to find out how likely it is that X takes a value of 60 or
more for a fair coin.

We will learn a formula later that tells us that for a fair coin the
probability that X takes a value of 60 or more, is about 0.028.

However, we don’t actually need any formulas to do this –


computers have become so fast and powerful that we can quickly
approximate probabilities via simulations:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 21/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 48

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 48

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 48

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 54

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 48

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 54

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> coin = c(0,1)

> sample(coin, 100, replace = T)

[1] 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[29] 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
[57] 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
[85] 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 48

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 54

> sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T))

[1] 38
Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 22/27
Example: Is a given coin fair?

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 23/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> #let’s repeat this 1000 times and save the output

> data.we.could.have.seen
= replicate(1000, sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T)))

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 23/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> #let’s repeat this 1000 times and save the output

> data.we.could.have.seen
= replicate(1000, sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T)))

> data.we.could.have.seen

[1] 43 47 56 54 49 45 46 51 41 47 48 44 54 53 43 54 46 49
[19] 48 44 47 52 53 39 44 52 53 45 52 57 49 54 48 56 42 47
[37] 42 46 44 47 49 46 51 53 59 57 50 45 51 55 50 53 60 53
...
[973] 45 49 42 53 54 51 56 46 49 48 53 46 55 37 47 49 51 54
[991] 50 49 49 50 57 35 44 49 45 52

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 23/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> #let’s repeat this 1000 times and save the output

> data.we.could.have.seen
= replicate(1000, sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T)))

> data.we.could.have.seen

[1] 43 47 56 54 49 45 46 51 41 47 48 44 54 53 43 54 46 49
[19] 48 44 47 52 53 39 44 52 53 45 52 57 49 54 48 56 42 47
[37] 42 46 44 47 49 46 51 53 59 57 50 45 51 55 50 53 60 53
...
[973] 45 49 42 53 54 51 56 46 49 48 53 46 55 37 47 49 51 54
[991] 50 49 49 50 57 35 44 49 45 52

> data.we.could.have.seen >= 60

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 23/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?
> #let’s repeat this 1000 times and save the output

> data.we.could.have.seen
= replicate(1000, sum(sample(coin, 100, replace = T)))

> data.we.could.have.seen

[1] 43 47 56 54 49 45 46 51 41 47 48 44 54 53 43 54 46 49
[19] 48 44 47 52 53 39 44 52 53 45 52 57 49 54 48 56 42 47
[37] 42 46 44 47 49 46 51 53 59 57 50 45 51 55 50 53 60 53
...
[973] 45 49 42 53 54 51 56 46 49 48 53 46 55 37 47 49 51 54
[991] 50 49 49 50 57 35 44 49 45 52

> data.we.could.have.seen >= 60

[1] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[10] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[19] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[28] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[37] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[46] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE
...
[991] FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
[1000] FALSE

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 23/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

> sum(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 24/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

> sum(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 21

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 24/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

> sum(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 21

> mean(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 24/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

> sum(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 21

> mean(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 0.021

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 24/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

> sum(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 21

> mean(data.we.could.have.seen >= 60)

[1] 0.021

So, without any knowledge of probability, we have found that the


probability that X takes a value of 60 or more is approximately
0.021 for a fair coin.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 24/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

7. Translate back to reality:

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 25/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

7. Translate back to reality: If the coin is indeed fair, then what


we have witnessed was quite a rare event — entirely possible, but
rather rare.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 25/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

7. Translate back to reality: If the coin is indeed fair, then what


we have witnessed was quite a rare event — entirely possible, but
rather rare.

We can either:

I accept that the coin is fair and that we just happened to see a
rather rare occurrence;

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 25/27


Example: Is a given coin fair?

7. Translate back to reality: If the coin is indeed fair, then what


we have witnessed was quite a rare event — entirely possible, but
rather rare.

We can either:

I accept that the coin is fair and that we just happened to see a
rather rare occurrence; or
I do not accept that we’ve been so unlucky, and instead
suspect that the coin is rigged.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 25/27


Steps for a scientific study

1. Identify research question or scientific hypothesis


2. Design an experiment to give information about the research
question
3. Conduct this experiment and collect the data
4. Visualise and summarise the observed data
5. Formulate a statistical model for the data
6. Analyse this model and make inferences about the model
based on the observed data
7. Translate inferences about the model into decisions and
predictions about the research question

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 26/27


Congratulations!

You have already carried out your first scientific study and
statistical hypothesis test!

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 27/27


Congratulations!

You have already carried out your first scientific study and
statistical hypothesis test!

The rest of this course will build up your foundational knowledge in


probability and statistics so that you can tackle a wider range of
research questions and data types.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 27/27


Congratulations!

You have already carried out your first scientific study and
statistical hypothesis test!

The rest of this course will build up your foundational knowledge in


probability and statistics so that you can tackle a wider range of
research questions and data types.

Prof. Dirk P. Kroese Lecture 1 27/27

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