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2 Rainfall-Runoff Relationships (Application of Different Rainfall-Runoff Models)

2.1 Introduction to hydrological Models

The two classical types of hydrological models are the deterministic and the stochastic types.

Figure 2.1: Classification of hydrological models according to process description

Deterministic Hydrological Models

Deterministic models permit only one outcome from a simulation with one set of inputs and
parameter values. Deterministic models can be classified to whether the model gives a lumped or
distributed description of the considered area, and whether the description of the hydrological
processes is empirical, conceptual, or more physically-based. As most conceptual models are
also lumped and as most physically based models are also distributed. The three main groups of
deterministic models:
• Empirical Models (black box)
• Lumped Conceptual Models (grey box)
• Distributed Process (Physically) Description Based Models (white box)

1. Empirical (Black Box) Models

Black box models are empirical, involving mathematical equations that have been assessed, not
from the physical processes in the catchment, but from analysis of concurrent input and output
time series.

The first of this kind of model was the Rational Method published by the Irish engineer Thomas
James Mulvaney (1822-1892) in 1851. The model was a single simple equation often used for

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drainage design for small suburban and urban watersheds. The equation assumes the
proportionality between peak discharge, qpk, and the maximum average rainfall intensity, ieff:
qpk = CR* ieff*AD
Where AD is drainage area and CR is the runoff coefficient, which depends on watershed land
use.
The equation was derived from a simplified conceptual model of travel times on basins with
negligible surface storage. The duration of the rainfall to be used in the equation is the mean
intensity of precipitation for duration equal to the time of concentration and an exceedence
probability of P.

The model reflects the way in which discharges are expected to increase with area, land use and
rainfall intensity in a rational way and hence its name Rational Method.

The scaling parameter C reflects the fact that not all the rainfall becomes discharge. The method
does not attempt to separate the different effects of runoff production and runoff routing that
controls the relationship between the volume of rainfall falling on the catchment in a storm and
the discharge at the hydrograph peak. In addition, the constant C is required to take account of
the nonlinear relationship between antecedent conditions and the profile of storm rainfall and the
resulting runoff production. Thus, C is not a constant parameter, but varies from storm to storm
on the same catchment, and from catchment to catchment for similar storms.

The other best known among the black box models is the unit hydrograph model which was
published by Sherman (1932), who used the idea that the various time delays for runoff produced
on the catchment to reach the outlet could be represented as a time distribution without any direct
link to the areas involved. Because the routing procedure was linear, this distribution could be
normalized to represent the response to a unit of runoff production, or effective rainfall,
generated
over the catchment in one time step. The method is one of the most commonly used hydrograph
modelling techniques in hydrology, simple to understand and easy to apply. The unit hydrograph
represents a discrete transfer function for effective rainfall to reach the basin outlet, lumped to
the scale of the catchment.

Other empirical models are developed using linear regression and correlation methods used to
determine functional relationships between different data sets. The relationships are
characterized by correlation coefficients and standard deviation and the parameter estimation is
carried out using rigorous statistical methods involving tests for significance and validity of the
chosen model.

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2. Lumped Conceptual Models

Lumped models treat the catchment as a single unit, with state variables that represent average
values over the catchment area, such as storage in the saturated zone. Due to the lumped
description, the description of the hydrological processes cannot be based directly on the
equations that are supposed to be valid for the individual soil columns. Hence, the equations are
semi-empirical, but still with a physical basis. Therefore, the model parameters cannot usually be
assessed from field data alone, but have to be obtained through the help of calibration. One of the
first and most successful lumped digital computer models was the Stanford Watershed model
developed by Norman Crawford and Ray Linsley at Stanford University. The Stanford model
had up to 35 parameters, although it was suggested that many of these could be fixed on the basis
of the physical characteristics of the catchment and only a much smaller number needed to be
calibrated.

3. Distributed Process Description Based Models

Another approach to hydrological processes modeling was the attempt to produce models based
on the governing equations describing all the surface and subsurface flow processes in the
catchment. A first attempt to outline the potentials and some of the elements in a distributed
process description based model on a catchment scale was made by Freeze and Harlan (1969).
The calculations require larger computers to solve the flow domain and points at the elements of
the catchment. Distributed models of this type have the possibility of defining parameter values
for every element in the solution mesh. They give a detailed and potentially more correct
description of the hydrological processes in the catchment than do the other model types. The
process equations require many different parameters to be specified for each element and made
the calibration difficult in comparison with the observed responses of the catchment.

In principle parameter adjustment of this type of model is not necessary if the process equations
used are valid and if the parameters are strongly related to the physical characteristics of the
surface, soil and rock. In practice the model requires effective values at the scale of the elements.
Because of the heterogeneity of soil, surface vegetation establishing a link between
measurements and element values is difficult. The Distributed Process Description Based Models
can in principle be applied to almost any kind of hydrological problem. The development is
increased over the recent years for the fact that the increase in computer power, programming
tools and digital databases and the need to handle processes and predictions of runoff, sediment
transport and/or contaminants.

Another reason is the need of the models for impact assessment. Changes in land use, such as
deforestation or urbanization often affect only part of a catchment area. With a distributed model
it is possible to examine the effects of such land use changes in their correct spatial context by
understanding the physical meaning between the parameter values and the land use changes.

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Recent examples of distributed process based models include the SHE model (Abbott et al.,
1986), MIKE SHE (Refsgaard and Storm, 1995), IHDM (Institute of Hydrology Distributed
Model; Calver and Wood 1995), and THALES (Grayson et al. 1992), etc.

Stochastic Time Series Models

Stochastic models allow for some randomness or uncertainty in the possible outcomes due to
uncertainty in input variables, boundary conditions or model parameters. Traditionally, a
stochastic model is derived from a time series analysis of the historical record. The stochastic
model can then be used for the generation of long hypothetical sequences of events with the
same statistical properties as the historical record. In this technique several synthetic series with
identical statistical properties are generated. These generated sequences of data can then be used
in the analysis of design variables and their uncertainties, for example, when estimating reservoir
storage requirements.

With regard to process description, the classical stochastic simulation models are comparable to
the empirical, black box models. Hence, stochastic time series models are in reality composed of
a simple deterministic core (the black box model) contained within a comprehensive stochastic
methodology. So, these are the broad generic classes of rainfall-runoff models, lumped
ordistributed; deterministic or stochastic.

The vast majority of models used in rainfall-runoff modelling are deterministic. Simpler models
still offer so wide applicability and flexibility. If the interest is in simulating and predicting a one
time series, for instance, run-off prediction, simple lumped parameter models can provide just as
good simulation as complex process description based models.

2.2 Rational Method

One of the most commonly used for the calculation of peak flow from small areas is the rational
formula given as:

Where, Qp = peak flow (m3/s)

C = dimensionless runoff coefficient
i(tc,p) = the mean intensity of precipitation (mm/h) for a duration equal to tc and an
exceedence probability p
A = drainage area in Km2
Assumptions inherent in the Rational Formula are as follows:
• The peak flow occurs when the entire watershed is contributing to the flow
• The rainfall intensity is the same over the entire drainage area

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• The rainfall intensity is uniform over a time duration equal to the time of concentration,
tc . The time of concentration is the time required for water to travel from the hydraulically most
remote point of the basin to the point of interest
• The frequency of the computed peak flow is the same as that of the rainfall intensity,
i.e., the 10-yr rainfall intensity is assumed to produce the 10-yr peak flow
• The coefficient of runoff is the same for all storms of all recurrence probabilities
Because of these inherent assumptions, the Rational Formula should only be applied to drainage
areas smaller than 80 ha.

2.2.1 Runoff Coefficient

The ground cover and a host of other hydrologic abstractions considerably affect the coefficient.
The rational equation in general relates the estimated peak discharge to a theoretical maximum of
100% runoff. The Values of C vary from 0.05 for flat sandy areas to 0.95 for impervious urban
surfaces, and considerable knowledge of the catchment is needed in order to estimate an
acceptable value. The coefficient of runoff also varies for different storms on the same
catchment, and thus, using an average value for C, gives only a rough estimate of Qp in small
uniform urban areas. On top of this the Rational Formula has been used for many years as a basis
for engineering design for small land drainage schemes and storm-water channels.

If the basin contains varying amount of different land cover or other abstractions, a coefficient
can be calculated through areal weighing as shown in equation (2.2). Typical values are given in
table 2.1 below.

Where x = subscript designating values for incremental areas with consistent land cover

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Table 2.1: Runoff coefficients for Rational formula

2.2.2 Rainfall intensity

Rainfall intensity, duration curve and frequency curves are necessary to use the rational method.
Regional IDF curves need to be developed for the catchment in question.
Higher values are usually appropriate for steeply sloped areas and longer return periods because
infiltration and other losses have a proportionally smaller effect on runoff in these cases.

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Figure 2.2: Example of IDF Curve

2.2.3 Time of Concentration

tc is the time of concentration, the time required for rain falling at the farthest point of the
catchment to flow to the measuring point of the river. Thus, after time tc from the
commencement of rain, the whole of the catchment is taken to be contributing to the flow. The
value of i, the mean intensity, assumed that the rate of rainfall is constant during tc, and that all
the measured rainfall over the catchment area contributes to the peak flow. The peak flow Qp
occurs after the period tc.

There are a number of methods that can be used to estimate time of concentration (tc), some of
which are intended to calculate the flow velocity within individual segments of the flow path
(e.g. shallow concentrated flow, open channel flow, etc.) the time of concentration can be
calculated as the sum of the travel times within the various consecutive flow segments.

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Open Channel and pipe flow velocity: Flow in gullies empties in to channels or pipes. Open
channel flow is assumed to begin where the stream follows and defined path and becomes
visible/significant. Manning’s equation can be used to estimate average flow velocities in pipe
and open channels.

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Table 2.2: Intercept coefficients for velocity versus slope relationship of equation (2.5)

Table 2.3: Manning’s Roughness coefficient (n) for overland flow

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For small natural catchments, a formula derived from data published by Kirprich for agricultural
areas could be used to give tc in hours by the following relationship:

Where: L = the length of the catchment along the longest river channel (in m)
S = overall catchment slope (in m/m)

2.3 SCS Curve Number Method

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Where CN= curve number, listed in table 2.4 for different land uses and hydrologic soil types.
This table assumes average antecedent moisture conditions. For multiple land
use/soil type combinations within a basin, use areal weighing.

Table 2.4: Runoff Curve Numbers for Urban areas (Average watershed conditions, Ia = 0.2 SR)

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Where: C0, C1, C2=Coefficients, listed in Table 2.5 (below). These are a function of the 24
hour rainfall distribution type Ia/P, Ia/P ratios are listed in Table 2.5

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Table 2.5: Coefficients for SCS peak Discharge Method (equation 2.11)

Table 2.6: Adjustment factor (Fp) for pond and swamp areas that are spread throughout the
watershed
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Table 2.7: Ia/P for selected rainfall depths and Curve Numbers

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2.4 Time-Area Method

The time – area method of obtaining runoff or discharge from rainfall can be considered as an
extension and improvement of the rational method. The peak discharge Qp is the sum of flow –
contributions from subdivisions of the catchment defined by time contours (called isochrones),
which are lines of equal flow – time to the river section where Qp is required. The method is
illustrated in Figure 2.2(a).

Figure 2.3: Time-area method

The flow from each contributing area bounded by two isochrones (T - ΔT, T) is obtained from
the product of the mean intensity of effective rainfall (i) from time T-ΔT to time T and the area
(ΔA). Thus Q4, the flow at X at time 4h is given by:

As the assumption for the rational method, the whole catchment is taken to be contributing to the
flow after T equals to tc. Hence the peak flow contributed from the whole catchment after Tc of
the commencement of rain is:

Where n, the number of incremental areas between successive isochrones, is given by tc/ΔT, and
k is a counter.

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The unrealistic assumption made in the rational method of uniform rainfall intensity over the
whole catchment and during the whole of tc is avoided in the time – area method, where the
catchment contributions are subdivided in time. The varying intensities within a storm are
averaged over discrete periods according to the isochrones time interval selected. Hence, in
deriving a flood peak for design purposes, a design storm with a critical sequence of intensities
can be used for the maximum intensities applied to the contributing areas of the catchment that
have most rapid runoff. However, when such differences within a catchment are considered,
there arises difficulty in determining tc, the time after the commencement of the storm when, by
definition, Qp occurs.

2.5 Stream Flow Hydrograph

A hydrograph is a graphical plot of discharge of a natural stream or river versus time. The
hydrograph is a result of a particular effective rainfall hyetograph as modified by basin flow
characteristics. By definition, the volume of water under an effective rainfall hyetograph is equal
to the volume of surface runoff.

It has three characteristic parts: the rising limb, the crest segment and the falling limb or
depletion curve. With reference to figure 2.4 the effective rainfall hyetograph consisting of a
single block of rainfall with duration D (T is also used in the lecture note alternatively) shown in
the upper left part of the figure produced the runoff hydrograph. The areas enclosed by the
hyetograph and the hydrograph each represent the same volume, V, of water from the catchment.
The maximum flow rate on the hydrograph is the peak flow, qp, while the time from the start of
the hydrograph to qp is the time to peak, tp. The total duration of the hydrograph is known as the
base time, tb.

The lag time, tL is the time from the center of mass of effective rainfall to the peak of runoff
hydrograph. It is apparent that tp = tL + D/2, using this definition. Some define lag time as the
time from center of mass of effective rainfall to the center of the runoff hydrograph.

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Figure 2.4: Runoff Hydrograph for a single block of rainfall with duration D
2.5.1 Hydrograph Analysis
One of the major tasks of the hydrograph analysis is to produce rainfall-runoff relationships for a
catchment area, for predicting runoffs as a result of certain rains which does not involve the
direct measurement of runoff.

Hydrograph describes the whole time history of the changing rate of flow from a catchment due
to rainfall event rather than predicting only the peak flow (Rational Method). A natural
hydrograph would be the result of continuous measurements of discharge (with a recording
device) producing the required relationship for any times interval, e.g. for a single flood event
related to a single storm.

Hydrograph may also show mean values of events observed over a long period (of several years)
as daily, monthly or annual averages in their temporal distribution over a year (or the rainy
season or any other defined period of interest) giving the solution of specific problems (average
storage behavior, average available discharge, etc).

Depending upon the unit of time involved, we have:

1. Annual hydrographs showing the variation of daily or weekly or 10 days daily mean flows
over a year.
2. Monthly hydrographs showing the variation of daily mean flows over a month
3. Seasonal hydrographs representing the variation of the discharge in a particular season such as
the monsoon season or dry season
4. Flood hydrographs or hydrographs due to storm representing stream flow due to a storm over
a catchment

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The hydrograph of stream flow against time has two main components, the area under the hump,
labeled surface runoff (which is produced by volume of water derived from the storm event),
and the broad band near the time axis, representing base flow contributed from groundwater.

At the beginning of the rainfall, the river level (and hence the discharge) is low and a period of
time elapses before the river begins to rise. During this period the rainfall is being intercepted by
vegetation or is soaking into the ground and making up soil-moisture deficits. The length of the
delay before the river rises depends on the wetness of the catchment before the storm and on the
intensity of the rainfall itself.

When the rainfall has satisfied catchment deficits and when surfaces and soils are saturated, the
rain begins to contribute to the stream flow. The proportion of rainfall that finds its way into a
river is being the effective rainfall, the rest being lost as in the form of evaporation, detention on
the ground and vegetation surface or retention in the soil. As the storm proceeds, the proportion
of effective rainfall increases and that of lost rainfall decreases.

The volume of surface runoff, represented by the area under the hydrograph minus the base flow,
can be considered in two main subdivisions to simplify the complex water movements over the
surface and in the ground. The effective rainfall makes the immediate contribution to the rising
limb from A to the peak of the hydrograph and, even when the rainfall stops, continue until the
inflection point (condition of maximum storage). Beyond this point, it is generally considered
that the flow comes from the water temporarily stored in the soil. This so-called interflow
continues to provide the flow of the recession curve until the water from the whole of the
effective rainfall is completely depleted at B.

The boundary between surface runoff and base flow is difficult to define and depends very much
on the geological structure and composition of the catchment. Permeable aquifers, such as
limestone and sandstone strata, sustain high base flow contributions, but impervious clays and

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built-up areas provide little or no base flow to a river. The base flow levels are also affected by
the general climatic state of the area: they tend to be high after period of wet weather and can be
very low after prolonged drought. Groundwater provides the total flow of the recession curve
until the next period of wet weather.

The main aims of the engineering hydrologist are to quantify the various components of the
hydrograph, by analyzing past events, in order to relate effective rainfall to surface runoff, and
thereby to be able to estimate and design for future events. As a result of the complexity of the
processes that create stream flow from rainfall, many simplifications and assumptions have to be
made.
2.5.2 Factors affecting flood hydrograph
Table 2.8: Factors affecting flood hydrograph

2.5.3 Effective Rainfall

At the start of a hydrograph analysis it is advisable to begin with a hydrograph produced by a
single rain event to identify the runoff characteristics of the catchment area. Such a single event
hydrograph is produced by the net or effective rain forming a flood wave or the direct runoff
which will be super imposed on the existing flow (base flow) of the river.

The portion of rainfall that finds its way into a river is known as the effective rainfall, the rest
being lost in evaporation, detention on the vegetation and ground surface or retention in the soil.
As the storm proceeds, the portion of effective rainfall increases and that of lost rainfall
decreases.

For the purposes of correlating direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) with the rainfall, which produces
the flow, it is necessary to obtain the effective rainfall hydrograph (hyetograph) (ERH) which
can be obtained by deducting the losses from the total rain. At the beginning of a storm there
could be considerable interception of the rainfall and initial wetting of surfaces before the rainfall
become ‘effective’ to form surface runoff.

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The loss-rate is dependent on the state of the catchment before the storm and is difficult to assess
quantitatively. The two simplified methods of determining the effective rainfall are:
I. The φ-index method
II. The initial and continuing loss method.

I. The φ-index method: this method assumes a constant loss rate of φ-mm from the beginning of
the rainfall event. This amount accounts for interception, evaporation loss and surface detention
in pools and hollows.
II. Initial and continuing loss rate method: In this method all the rainfall up to the time of rise
of the hydrograph is considered lost, and there is a continuing loss-rate at same level after words.

A choice between the two methods depends on knowledge of the catchment but, as the timing of
the extent of initial loss is arbitrary, the fixing of the beginning of effective rainfall at the
beginning of runoff in the stream neglects any lag time in the drainage process and thus
somewhat unrealistic. A constant loss-rate, the φ-index, would therefore seem to be more readily
applicable.

2.5.4 Separation of Base Flow and Runoff

The total runoff consists of direct runoff and the base flow. For hydrograph analysis the base
flow has to be separated from the total runoff. There are several methods of base flow separation.
Some of them that are that are in common use are:

Straight-line method (Method-I)

The separation of the base flow is achieved by joining with a straight-line beginning of the direct
runoff to a point on the recession limb representing the end of the direct runoff. Point B the end
of the recession limb may be located by an empirical equation for the time interval N (days) from
the peak to the point B is
N = 0.83A0.2 …………………………………………………………………2.15
Where A = drainage in km2 , and N in days
Method-II
In this method the base flow curve existing prior to the commencement of the surface runoff is
extended till it intersects the ordinate drawn at the peak Point C. This point is joined to point B
by a straight line. Segment AC and CB separate the base flow and surface runoff.
Method-III
In this method the base flow recession curve after the depletion of the floodwater is extended
backwards till it intersects the ordinate at the point of inflection (line EF). Points A and F are
joined by an arbitrary smooth curve. This method of base-flow is realistic in situations where the
groundwater contributions are significant and reach the stream quickly. The surface runoff
obtained after the base-flow separation is known as direct runoff hydrograph (DRH).

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Figure 2.6: Base flow separation

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