Market Update: March 2011
Market Update: March 2011
March 2011
1
Market snapshot
Australian capital cities, January 2011
Darwin
Houses: up 1.1% over quarter
Units: up 0.9% over quarter
Median house price: $550,000 Median unit price: $403,750
Gross rental yields: 5.3% (houses) / 5.7% (units)
Brisbane
Houses: down -2.3% over quarter
Units: down -2.4% over quarter
Median house price: $460,000 Median unit price: $384,000
Gross rental yields: 4.4% (houses) / 5.1% (units)
Perth
Houses: down -2.5% over quarter Sydney
Units: down -2.4% over quarter Houses: down -2.7% over quarter
Median house price: $480,000 Median unit price: $395,000 Units: down -2.2% over quarter
Gross rental yields: 4.1% (houses) / 4.6% (units) Adelaide Median house price: $588,250 Median unit price: $452,925
Houses: down -0.4% over quarter Gross rental yields: 4.4% (houses) / 5.1% (units)
Units: up 0.9% over quarter
Median house price: $410,000 Median unit price: $333,000 Canberra
Gross rental yields: 4% (houses) / 4.7% (units) Houses: down -6.5% over quarter
Melbourne
Houses: down -1.8% over quarter Units: up 3.5% over quarter
Units: down -5.1% over quarter Median house price: $555,000 Median unit price: $412,250
Median house price: $515,000 Median unit price: $430,000 Gross rental yields: 5% (houses) / 5.3% (units)
Gross rental yields: 3.7% (houses) / 4.2% (units)
Hobart
Houses: up 2% over quarter
Units: down -11.1% over quarter
Median house price: $350,000 Median unit price: $285,000
Gross rental yields: 5.2% (houses) / 5.7% (units)
2
MedianMedian
house houseandand unitunit
prices prices
Australian capital cities
Australian capital cities, January 2011
$285,000 Median unit price
Hobart+
$350,000 Median house price
Adelaide $333,000
$410,000
Brisbane $384,000
$460,000
Perth $395,000
$480,000
Australian Capitals $415,000
$490,000
Melbourne $430,000
$515,000
Darwin $403,750
$550,000
Canberra $412,250
$555,000
Sydney $452,925
$588,250
6.0%
4.9%
4.0% 3.6%
Annual change in dwelling value
2.6%
2.2%
1.9%
2.0%
1.2%
0.0%
-0.6%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-3.7% -3.8%
-6.0%
Darwin Melbourne Sydney Hobart+ Adelaide Australian Canberra Brisbane Perth
Capitals
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
2.0%
1.0%
1.0% 0.7%
Quarterly change in dwelling value
0.0%
-0.1%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.3% -2.3%
-2.5% -2.5% -2.5%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-5.0%
Darwin Hobart+ Adelaide Brisbane Australian Perth Sydney Melbourne Canberra
Capitals
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
30.0% 60,000
25.0% 50,000
Annual capital gain / loss
20.0%
40,000
Volume of sales
15.0%
30,000
10.0%
20,000
5.0%
0.0% 10,000
-5.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
30.0% 14,000
25.0% 12,000
20.0%
Annual capital gain / loss
10,000
Volume of sales
15.0%
8,000
10.0%
6,000
5.0%
4,000
0.0%
-5.0% 2,000
-10.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
35.0% 10,000
30.0% 9,000
25.0% 8,000
Annual capital gain / loss
7,000
20.0%
Volume of sales
6,000
15.0%
5,000
10.0%
4,000
5.0%
3,000
0.0% 2,000
-5.0% 1,000
-10.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
40.0% 8,000
35.0% 7,000
30.0%
6,000
Annual capital gain / loss
25.0%
Volume of sales
20.0% 5,000
15.0% 4,000
10.0% 3,000
5.0%
2,000
0.0%
-5.0% 1,000
-10.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
45.0% 3,000
40.0%
35.0% 2,500
30.0%
Annual capital gain / loss
2,000
Volume of sales
25.0%
20.0%
1,500
15.0%
10.0%
1,000
5.0%
0.0% 500
-5.0%
-10.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
50.0% 6,000
40.0% 5,000
30.0%
Annual capital gain / loss
4,000
Volume of sales
20.0%
3,000
10.0%
2,000
0.0%
-10.0% 1,000
-20.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
50.0% 450
400
40.0%
350
30.0%
Annual capital gain / loss
300
Volume of sales
20.0% 250
10.0% 200
150
0.0%
100
-10.0%
50
-20.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
40.0% 1,400
35.0%
1,200
30.0%
25.0% 1,000
Annual capital gain / loss
Volume of sales
20.0%
15.0% 800
10.0% 600
5.0%
0.0% 400
-5.0%
200
-10.0%
-15.0% 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-07
Jul-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
70.0% 700
60.0%
600
50.0%
500
Annual capital gain / loss
40.0%
Volume of sales
30.0%
400
20.0%
300
10.0%
0.0% 200
-10.0%
100
-20.0%
-30.0% 0
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-99
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-10
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-07
Jun-08
Month Note: The most recent five months worth of sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision
170
Bottom 20% Middle 60% Upper 20%
160
150
140
130
Index
120
110
100
90
Base = 100 @ January 2005
80
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-10
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-07
Oct-08
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-11
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
15
Rolling annual change in dwelling values
Major Australian capital cities
50%
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Combined capital cities
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-98
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
16
Rolling quarterly change in dwelling values
National capital cities
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jul-10
Oct-06
Oct-08
Oct-10
Oct-07
Oct-09
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
17
Rolling quarterly change in house values
National capital cities vs Rest of State
6.0%
Capital city Rest of State
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jul-10
Oct-06
Oct-08
Oct-10
Oct-07
Oct-09
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Source: rpdata.com - Rismark
18
Average gross rental yield and rental rates,
Australian capital cities
$440 5.5%
Avg rental rate - all dwellings
$400 5.1%
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-06 Jan-06
Mar-06 Mar-06
Units
May-06 May-06
Jul-06 Jul-06
Houses
Sep-06 Sep-06
20
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Jan-06 Jan-06
Mar-06 Mar-06
Units
May-06 May-06
Jul-06 Jul-06
Houses
Sep-06
21
Auction clearance rates and volumes,
combined capital cities
90.0% 3,000
80.0%
2,500
70.0%
60.0% 2,000
50.0%
1,500
40.0%
30.0% 1,000
20.0%
500
10.0%
0.0% 0
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-09
Nov-10
Feb-11
Source: rpdata.com
22
Total number of listings
Source: rpdata.com
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Jan-07
3 Jan 07
Feb 07
14 Mar-07
28 Mar 07
May-07
9 May 07
20 Jun 07
Jul-07
1 Aug 07
Sep-07
Total Listings
12 Sep 07
Oct 07
24 Nov-07
5 Dec 07
Jan-08
16 Jan 08
Feb 08
27 Mar-08
Apr 08
9May-08
21 May 08
New Listings
Jul-08
2 Jul 08
13 Aug 08
Sep-08
24 Sep 08
Nov-08
5 Nov 08
17 Dec 08
Australia
Jan-09
25 Jan 09
Mar-09
8 Mar 09
Apr 09
19May-09
31 May 09
Jul-09
12 Jul 09
23 Aug 09
Sep-09
4 Oct 09
Nov-09
15 Nov 09
Jan-10
27 Dec 09
Weekly listings, National
Feb 10
7 Mar-10
21 Mar 10
May-10
2 May 10
13 Jun 10
Jul-10
25 Jul 10
Sep-10
5 Sep 10
Oct 10
17 Nov-10
28 Nov 10
Jan-11
9 Jan 11
Feb 11
20 Mar-11
23
Annual change in CPI (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
-1.0
Dec-1996
Jun-1997
All groups
Dec-1998
Range
Jun-1999
Jun-2005
Dec-2005
Jun-2006
Dec-2006
Consumer price index
Jun-2007
Dec-2007
Jun-2008
Dec-2008
Jun-2009
Dec-2009
Jun-2010
Dec-2010
24
Annual change in wage price index
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Dec-2006
Jun-2007
Dec-2007
Jun-2008
Dec-2008
Jun-2009
Dec-2009
Jun-2010
25
Dec-2010
Standard variable home loan interest rate
4.0%
5.0%
7.0%
8.0%
6.0%
9.0%
10.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
10.0%
18.0%
Feb-1961
Long term
Feb-1966
Aug-2003
Feb-1971
Feb-2004
Feb-1976
Aug-2004 Feb-1981
Feb-1986
Feb-2005
Feb-1991
Aug-2005 Feb-1996
Feb-2001
Feb-2006
Feb-2006
Aug-2006 Feb-2011
Feb-2007
Aug-2007
Feb-2008
Aug-2008
Feb-2009
Aug-2009
Feb-2010
Mortgage rate, average standard variable
Aug-2010
26
Feb-2011
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Month
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Unemployment rate, Australia
Jan-08
Jan-09
Unemployment Rate
Jan-10
Moving annual average
Jan-11
4%
6%
8%
2%
10%
12%
27
Unemployment Rate
Annual change in no of employed persons
(,000)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
-200.0
-100.0
Jul-2006
Oct-2006
Jan-2007
Apr-2007
Jul-2007
Oct-2007
Jan-2008
Part-time employment
Apr-2008
Jul-2008
Oct-2008
Jan-2009
part-time, Australia
Apr-2009
Jul-2009
Oct-2009
Jan-2010
Apr-2010
Jul-2010
Annual growth in employment, full-time vs
Oct-2010
Jan-2011
28
Consumer Confidence, Australia
130
Consumer Sentiment Index Six month rolling average
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Feb-92
Feb-93
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-91
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-98
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-05
Feb-08
Feb-11
Source: rpdata.com, Melbourne Institute-Westpac
29
Monthly finance commitments
0
20,000
30,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
10,000
40,000
Dec-1993
FHB
Dec-1994 Non FHB
Dec-1995
Dec-1996
Dec-1997
Dec-1998
Dec-1999
Dec-2000
Dec-2001
Month
Dec-2002
Dec-2003
Dec-2004
Dec-2005
Dec-2006
finance commitments, Australia
Dec-2007
Number of owner occupier housing
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
30
Dec-2010
Total value of housing finance commitments,
owner occupiers vs. investors
18
Owner Occupied Investment
14
12
10
2
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-07
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-10
Month
31
No of finance commitments
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Dec-1991
Dec-1992
Dec-1993
Dec-1994
Dec-1995
Dec-1996
Dec-1997
Dec-1998
12 month moving average
Dec-1999
Dec-2000
Dec-2001
Dec-2002
Dec-2003
Dec-2004
Dec-2005
commitments, owner occupiers
Total number of housing finance
Dec-2006
Dec-2007
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
32
Total dwelling approvals,
Australia
20,000
Total dwelling approvals Total dwelling approvals (6 month rolling avg)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Dec-1992
Dec-1993
Dec-1996
Dec-1997
Dec-2000
Dec-2001
Dec-2003
Dec-2004
Dec-2005
Dec-2007
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Dec-1990
Dec-1991
Dec-1994
Dec-1995
Dec-1998
Dec-1999
Dec-2002
Dec-2006
Dec-2010
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
33
Dwelling approvals
private houses vs private units, Australia
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Private house approvals (rolling 6 mth avg) Private unit approvals (rollng 6 mth avg)
0
Dec-1990
Dec-1992
Dec-1993
Dec-1996
Dec-1997
Dec-2000
Dec-2001
Dec-2004
Dec-2005
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Dec-1991
Dec-1994
Dec-1995
Dec-1998
Dec-1999
Dec-2002
Dec-2003
Dec-2006
Dec-2007
Dec-2010
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
34
Population growth
Natural increase vs net overseas migration
90,000
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
80,000
Quarterly change in population
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Jun-1983
Jun-1984
Jun-1985
Jun-1988
Jun-1989
Jun-1992
Jun-1993
Jun-1996
Jun-1997
Jun-2000
Jun-2001
Jun-2002
Jun-2004
Jun-2005
Jun-2006
Jun-2009
Jun-2010
Jun-1982
Jun-1986
Jun-1987
Jun-1990
Jun-1991
Jun-1994
Jun-1995
Jun-1998
Jun-1999
Jun-2003
Jun-2007
Jun-2008
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Note: black dotted line indicates an estimate of the quarterly level of overseas migration proposed by Government
35
Annual population growth
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
300,000
350,000
Note: black dotted line indicates the long-term average level of annual population growth
Jun-1994
Jun-1995
Jun-1996
Jun-1997
Jun-1998
Jun-1999
Jun-2000
Jun-2001
Jun-2002
Total population growth
Jun-2003
Jun-2004
Jun-2005
Jun-2006
Jun-2007
Jun-2008
Jun-2009
36
Jun-2010
Quarterly dwelling approvals vs. quarterly
population growth
120,000
Total quarterly dwelling approvals
Quarterly change in population growth
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Dec-1990
Dec-1991
Dec-1993
Dec-1994
Dec-1996
Dec-1997
Dec-1999
Dec-2000
Dec-2002
Dec-2003
Dec-2006
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
Dec-1989
Dec-1992
Dec-1995
Dec-1998
Dec-2001
Dec-2004
Dec-2005
Dec-2007
Dec-2008
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
37
It’s about tangible
results for property
professionals everyday.
38