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Chapter 6 - Binomial Distribution

The chapter discusses the binomial distribution, which models experiments with a fixed number of trials (n), two possible outcomes (success/failure), independent trials, and a constant probability (p) of success each trial. The probability of x successes is calculated as a binomial expression involving n, p, and q=1-p. Terms like at least/most/fewer than x successes are defined. Examples show how to calculate probabilities for binomial experiments involving boys/girls choosing activities or chocolate eggs in boxes. Expectations and variances are given for binomial and general discrete random variables.

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187 views4 pages

Chapter 6 - Binomial Distribution

The chapter discusses the binomial distribution, which models experiments with a fixed number of trials (n), two possible outcomes (success/failure), independent trials, and a constant probability (p) of success each trial. The probability of x successes is calculated as a binomial expression involving n, p, and q=1-p. Terms like at least/most/fewer than x successes are defined. Examples show how to calculate probabilities for binomial experiments involving boys/girls choosing activities or chocolate eggs in boxes. Expectations and variances are given for binomial and general discrete random variables.

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Chapter 6 - Binomial Distribution

 Conditions:
 There is a fixed number of trials (𝑛).
 A single trial has two possible outcomes, (success and failure).
 The outcome of each trial is independent of the outcome of all the other trials.
 The probability of success at each trial is constant.

 A binomial distribution can be written as:


𝑋~𝐵 (𝑛 , 𝑝) where, 𝑛 = number of trials
𝑝 = probability of success
𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = probability of failure

𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥

 Terms:

 at least 5 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 5) 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4)

 at most 5 / no more than 5 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5)

 fewer/less than 5 𝑃(𝑋 < 5) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4)

 greater than 5 𝑃(𝑋 > 5) 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5)

 exactly 5 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) 𝑃(𝑋 = 5)

 When an experiment is done without replacement, binomial distribution cannot be used


to find the probability. This is because the outcomes no longer remain independent of one
another
 Examples:
 Example 1 –
There are a large number of students in Luttley College. 60% of the students are boys.
Students can choose exactly one of Games, Drama, or Music on Friday afternoons. It is
found that 75% of the boys choose Games, 10% chose Drama and the remainder of the
boys choose Music. Of the girls, 30% choose Games, 55% choose Drama and remainder
chose Music.
(i) 6 boys are chosen at random. Find the probability that fewer than 3 of them
choose Music.
(ii) 5 Drama students are chosen at random. Find the probability that at least 1 of
them is a boy.

Solution:
(i) P(0, 1, 2)
= (0.85)6 + (0.15)(0.85)5 6 C1 + (0.15)2 (0.85)4 6 C2
= 0.953

(ii) 𝐺
0.75
0.1
𝐷
𝐵
0.6 0.15 𝑀

𝐺
0.3
0.4
𝐺 0.55
𝐷

0.15 𝑀

0.6×0.1 3
𝑃(𝐵|𝐷) = (0.6×0.1)+(0.4×0.55) = 14

𝑋~𝐵(5 , 3⁄14)

𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)
3 0 11 5
= 1 − 5𝐶5 (14) × (14)
= 0.701
 Example 2 –
The Fair Choc Company makes small chocolate eggs, 48% of which are milk chocolate
and the remainder of which are plain chocolate. The eggs are mixed before being put into
identical foil wrappings and placed at random into boxes, each containing 12 eggs.
(i) A box is chosen at random. Show that the probability that this box contains exactly
6 milk chocolate eggs is 0.223 correct to 3 significant figures.
(ii) The manager takes a random sample of 10 boxes of eggs from the production line.
Find the probability that at least two of these boxes contain exactly 6 milk chocolate
eggs.

Solution:
(i) Let 𝑋 be the number of milk chocolate eggs in a box of 12 chocolate eggs.
𝑋~𝐵(12, 0.48) with 𝑛 = 12, 𝑝 = 0.48, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.52
12
P(𝑋 = 6) = ( ) × 0.486 × 0.526
6
= 0.2234 …
= 0.223 (3 s.f.)

(ii) Let 𝑌 be the number of boxes that contain exactly 6 milk chocolate eggs in a
random sample of 10 boxes.
𝑌~𝐵(10, 0.2234 … ) with 𝑛 = 10, 𝑝 = 0.2234 …, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.7765 …
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 1)
10
= 1 − ((0.7765 … )10 + ( ) × (0.2234 … )1 × (0.7765 … )9 )
1
= 1 − 0.30925 …
= 0.69074 …
= 0.691 (3 s.f.)
 Expectation and variance of a binomial distribution:

E(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝

Var(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝𝑞

 Expectation and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable:


 Example:
𝑥 1 2 3
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 1⁄ 1⁄ 1⁄
4 2 4

𝜇 = E(𝑋) = ∑𝑥 𝑝(𝑋 = 𝑥)
1 1 1
= (1 × 4) + (2 × 2) + (3 × 4)

Var(𝑋) = ∑𝑥 2 𝑝(𝑋 = 𝑥) − 𝜇 2
1 1 1
= [12 × (4) + 22 (2) + 32 (4) ] − 22

= 0.5

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