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Unit 9 - Simulation

Here are the key steps for the simulation: 1. Generate a random number between 1 and 100 to determine the number of arrivals that day 2. Refer to the arrivals distribution to determine how many machines arrived 3. Generate random numbers for each machine to determine its repair time based on the repairs distribution 4. Update the queue length after arrivals and repairs 5. Repeat for 25 days and track the maximum queue length The simulation will provide an estimate of how busy the repair bench may get on average and what the maximum wait times could be. This can help determine staffing needs. Let me know if you need help setting up or running the actual simulation model.

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Sarvar Pathan
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558 views17 pages

Unit 9 - Simulation

Here are the key steps for the simulation: 1. Generate a random number between 1 and 100 to determine the number of arrivals that day 2. Refer to the arrivals distribution to determine how many machines arrived 3. Generate random numbers for each machine to determine its repair time based on the repairs distribution 4. Update the queue length after arrivals and repairs 5. Repeat for 25 days and track the maximum queue length The simulation will provide an estimate of how busy the repair bench may get on average and what the maximum wait times could be. This can help determine staffing needs. Let me know if you need help setting up or running the actual simulation model.

Uploaded by

Sarvar Pathan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simulation

Maumita Roy
Definition:
“Simulation is the process of designing
a model of a real system and conducting
experiments with this model for the
purpose of either understanding the
behavior of the system and/or
evaluating various strategies for the
operation of the system.”
Brief History Not a very old technique...
• World War II

• “Monte Carlo” simulation: originated with


the work on the atomic bomb. Used to
simulate bombing raids. Given the
security code name “Monte-Carlo”.

• Still widely used today for certain problems


which are not analytically solvable
Advantages to Simulation:

Simulation’s greatest strength is


its ability to answer
“what if” questions...
Advantages to Simulation:
• Can be used to study existing systems without disrupting the
ongoing operations.

• Proposed systems can be “tested” before committing resources.

• Allows us to control time.

• Allows us to identify bottlenecks.

• Allows us to gain insight into which variables are most


important to system performance.
Monte Carlo Simulation
The Monte Carlo method may be used
when the model contains elements that
exhibit chance in their behavior
1. Set up probability distributions for important variables
2. Build a cumulative probability distribution for each variable
3. Establish an interval of random numbers for each variable
4. Generate random numbers
5. Simulate a series of trials
Probability of Demand
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Demand Probability of Cumulative
for Tires Frequency Occurrence Probability
0 10 10/200 = .05 .05
1 20 20/200 = .10 .15
2 40 40/200 = .20 .35
3 60 60/200 = .30 .65
4 40 40/200 = .20 .85
5 30 30/ 200 = .15 1.00
200 days 200/200 = 1.00

Table F.2
Assignment of Random Numbers
Interval of
Daily Cumulative Random
Demand Probability Probability Numbers
0 .05 .05 01 through 05
1 .10 .15 06 through 15

2 .20 .35 16 through 35


3 .30 .65 36 through 65
4 .20 .85 66 through 85
5 .15 1.00 86 through 00
Table F.3
Simulation Example 1
Day Random Simulated
Number Number Daily Demand
1 52 3
2 37 3
3 82 4 Select random
4 69 4 numbers from Table F.3
5 98 5
6 96 5
7 33 2
8 50 3
9 88 5
10 90 5
39 Total
3.9 Average
Simulation Example 1
Day Random Simulated
Number Number Daily Demand
1 52 5 3
Expected
2 demand ∑
= 37 (probability of i units)
3 x (demand of i units)
3 82 i =1 4
4 = 69(.05)(0) + (.10)(1) + (.20)(2)
4 + (.30)(3) + (.20)(4) +
(.15)(5)
5 98 5
= 0 + .1 + .4 + .9 + .8 + .75
6 96 5
= 2.95 tires
7 33 2
8 50 3
9 88 5
10 90 5
39 Total
3.9 Average
• Multi-News Shops Limited owns a large
chain of news agents. The sales pattern Demand Probability
of a particular weekly magazine is being (copies)
studied. The magazine sells for Rs.30 per
copy and costs Rs.20 per copy from the 0‹100 0.07
publishers. There is a sale or return
agreement whereby the publishers will 100‹200 0.12
take back unsold copies at cost price less
a Rs.4 per copy handling charge. 200‹300 0.14
• The demand pattern of a typical shop has
been recorded and is shown in the 300‹400 0.19
adjoining table. At present, a typical shop
orders 400 copies of the magazine a 400‹500 0.18
week.
500‹600 0.09
• There has been a suggestion that an
insight may be gained into the situation if 600‹700 0.07
the magazine’s demand pattern is
simulated. As a consequence, a random 700‹800 0.07
number table has been consulted , a 20
number extract from which is shown 800‹900 0.05
below:
• 00, 27, 74, 69, 32, 17, 98, 57, 71, 51, 03, 900‹1000 0.02
96, 15, 13, 56, 15, 83, 62, 32, 17.
• Simulate the 20 week operation.
Simulation on Inventory
Problems
A dealer in colour TVs want to use a scientific method for reducing
his investment in stocks. The daily demand for TV is random and
varies from day to day in an unpredictable pattern. From the past
sales record the dealer has been able to establish a probability
distribution of the demand as given below:
Daily Demand 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(units):

Probability 0.06 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.03

The Dealer also knows from his past experience that the lead time is
almost fixed at 5 days. The dealer would like to study the
implications of a possible inventory policy of ordering 30 units ,
whenever the inventory at the end of the day is 20 units. The
inventory on hand is 30 units and use the following sequence of
random numbers to simulate the demand for next 25 days.

Random numbers: 3, 18, 17, 32, 69, 24, 61, 30, 3, 48, 88, 71, 27, 80,
33, 90, 78, 55, 87, 16, 34, 45, 59, 20, 59.
A company uses a high grade raw material. The consumption pattern is
probabilistic as given below and it takes 2 months to replenish stocks:

Consumption per month(tonnes) 1 2 3 4


Probability 0.15 0.30 0.45 0.10

Cost of placing an order is Rs.1000 and the cost of carrying stocks is Rs.50 per
month per tonne. The average carrying costs are calculated on the stocks
held at the end of each month.
The company has two options for the purchase of raw materials as under:
Option I – Order for 5 tonnes when the closing inventory of the month plus
outstanding order is less than 8 tonnes.
Option II – Order for 8 tonnes when the closing inventory of the month plus
outstanding order is less than 8 tonnes.
Currently on April 1, 2017, the company has stock of 8 tonnes plus 6 tonnes
ordered two months ago. The ordered quantity is expected to be received
next month.
Using random numbers given below, simulate 12 months consumption till
March 31, 2018 and advise the company as to which purchase option
should be accepted such that the inventory costs are minimum.

Random numbers are 88 41 67 63 48 74 27 16 11 64 49 21


Simulation on Queuing Problems
• Philips India is engaged in manufacturing different types of equipments by
various consumers. The company has two assembly lines to produce its
product. The processing time for each of the assembly lines is regarded as
a random variable and is described by the following distributions:

Processing Time Assembly X Assembly Y


40 0.10 0.2
42 0.15 0.4
44 0.40 0.2
46 0.10 0.15
48 0.25 0.05

• Using the following random numbers , generate data on the processing


time for 10 units of the items and compute the expected process time for
the product.
• 4236 7573 4943 1283 2014 3604 9344 5316 7606 0089
• For the purpose, read the numbers horizontally, taking the first two digits
for the processing time on assembly X and the last two digits for
processing time on assembly Y.
The number of machines arriving per day at a factory repair
bench has been noted over a long period of time and found
to have the following distribution:
Arrivals: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Percentage : 2 7 15 20 20 16 10 6 3 1
Repair times depend on the type of fault and the repairs
completed perday. They have been recorded and found to be
represented by:
Repairs: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Percentage: 4 8 14 18 18 15 10 7 4 2
Simulate 25 days to find the maximum queue length. Use the
following series of random numbers:
55 86 87 70 05 71 69 29 74 73 37 17 42 16 89 98 35 81
07 16 94 42 27 18 13 70 05 35 86 85 02 79 13 35 37
38 57 19 97 38 45 82 40 32 63 29 10 67 41 99

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